UFN 119: Brunson vs Machida- Bet Pack Review

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Depending on your betting style, you can select the Big Bank Roll Parlays which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Big Risk/ Big Reward Parlays are for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

 

 

 

Draftkings Line up

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Fighter 1: Derek Brunson $8400 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Demian Maia $8000 
Fighter 3: Rob Font $8700 
Fighter 4: Jack Hermansson $8300 
Fighter 5: Niko Price $7700 
Fighter 6: Marcelo Golm $8800 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: Francisco Trinaldo $8600 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos $9000 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: 
Fighter 4: 
 
 
 

 

Derek Brunson -150 vs Lyoto Machida +140 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

It isn’t 100% perfect, bu fading a fighter returning off of a 2+ year layoff has proven a pretty consistent winner. That is the scenario here for Machida. When we toss in that he is now 39 years old and appeared to be at the end of the run, Machida is a a hard sell for me at this point. Brunson aggression could cost him, but it could also be his key to victory here if used effectively. I considered a Gold play here but Brunson slides back to the Silver section considering we don’t know much about how Machida is going to look.

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I have Brunson in my lineup. He is aggressive and will go for the finish with his big left hand. Machida has been finished on a couple of occasions in his recent defeats and if Brunson cracks we can add one more. Without the finish, Brunson’s volume is decent and his takedown over 5-rounds should produce.

Colby Covington -130 vs Demian Maia +120 

Maia is coming into this fight in the post-title fight letdown scenario which is concerning. That being said, I still think his style matches up well with Covington. Colby doesn’t have the striking attack to deal with Maia on the feet and he struggles with pressure. Colby can have issues if put on the defensive and that is exactly what Maia will do. My biggest concern here is that Maia gasses out after round 1 and Colby scoops up 2 and 3. I will play Maia in the Silver section.

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Demian Maia is affordable and can finish. He will come out looking for a submission right from the onset, most likely by RNC. His persistent TD game could produce some points as well, but I am banking on a finish here for my lineup.

Pedro Munhoz +145 s Rob Font -140 

I love this play. Backing a foreign fighter in Brazil can be problematic, but I think Font is a terrible matchup for Munhoz. Pedro needs to score the snap submission to win this fight. If he can’t cash in on that big moment, he is going to struggle to find Font on the feet due to his superior reach and more technical striking. Font needs to find a mix of O and D to make sure the judges don’t take away a close fight from him, but I’ve got Rob in the Gold section.

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Pedro is a tough out, but Font has finished his foe in all of his UFC wins. If he doesn’t score the finish, Font could still pick up some decent points with his offense. Add him.

Francisco Trinaldo -195 vs Jim Miller +180 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I’m not a huge fan of how this line has moved, Trinaldo shouldn’t be this big of a favourite. Miller is a tough out and can compete anywhere in the cage. I think Trinaldo lands the more impactful strikes and limits the success that Jimmy has on the mat. Close fight, I like the Brazilian at home. Silver play.

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Trinaldo gets the call as a sub. Miller isn’t easy to finish, but Francisco has shown he can do some serious damage. I expect this fight to go the distance so he doesn’t get the call to the main lineup as a result.

Jack Hermansson -118 vs Thiago Santos +115 

Santos is super dangerous and that is encouraging people to back him and help this line move in our favour. Hermansson has the striking to hold his own with Thiago on the feet, but he will most likely come out looking for the takedown from the onset. Jack’s focus on the mat and ability to finish the fight once on top is his key here versus the Brazilian. Gold Play!

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He has been capping opponents off in the opening round and doing it with a barrage of strikes. He is an incredibly affordable $8300 to boot! Sign him!

John Lineker -451 vs Marlon Vera +435 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I’m going to pass here. It’s not hard to see why as Lineker’s value is just not there and Vera has looked decent of late. Moving on.

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Just too expensive here. I feel a finish is a very real possibility, Lineker hurts your spending power too much.

Niko Price +110 vs Vicente Luque -120 

This should be a good fight, but I simply can’t look past Luque’s struggles outside of round 1. That sounds just like the perfect scenario for Price. Survive the early fight, push him a little, and take over in rounds 2 and 3. I’m going to play the numbers and feel Price is durable enough to make those numbers count. Silver Play.

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The price is right bitch! Niko can finish and Luque becomes more hittable as the fight advances. Let’s get him in the lineup ASAP!

Antonio Carlos Junior -418 vs Jack Marshman +400 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Nope. Marshman is just scrappy enough to give ACJ trouble if he fades. I’ll pass.

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For $9200, you could probably spread your money out a little better than backing ACJ. He could finish, but he is expensive, I will pass.

Hacran Dias +145 vs Jared Gordon -147 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I’m not high on Dias. He is a grinder who has appeared reluctant to grind of late. His striking just isn’t that good or at least not good enough to win fights by itself. I expect that Gordon is going to win this fight with aggression and activity. Close fight, Bronze play!

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Nothing doing here. Pass.

Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos -200 vs Max Griffin +195 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This should be a great scrap! I’ve got Dos Santos as the more proven commodity that has a tendency to get stronger as the fight progresses. He is also fighting at home which is great. Griffin has a vulnerability on the mat as well which is an area the Brazilian could exploit. Gold Play!

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I’ve got Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos as a sub. He hits hard and can finish, especially late. I think this is a close fight if we don’t see a finish. Either way, let’s use Dos Santos for some variety.

Deiveson Figueiredo +150 vs Jarred Brooks -157 

That weight cut looked brutal for FD. I have found it seems a pretty consistent play to bet against fighters that either don’t make weight or have a noticeable struggle to get to the limit. Figueiredo was crying. That is crazy! That is a bad weight cut. If Figueiredo can’t get this fight done and over with by the end of the opening round, he is going to fade. Brooks’s style isn’t pretty, but it can be effective if he establishes his wrestling. He will against a wilted opponent. Bronze play.

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Nope, probably not a finish. I will pass.

Christian Colombo +200 vs Marcelo Golm -195 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Colombo is just not that good. Well, he’s a decent striker but his lack of speed kills him. Golm will want to take him down which is perfect and he will want to GNP his way to win. I like that. Bronze play.

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Golm has never gone outside of the opening round with all his fights ending via ground-based TKO it’s an easy call to finish (or start) my lineup with the big Brazilian.

 

1. John Lineker -451 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Rob Font -140 

3. Antonio Carlos Junior -418 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos -200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Jack Hermansson -118 

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6. Demian Maia +120 

7. Marcelo Golm -195 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

8. Derek Brunson -150 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

9. Niko Price +110 

10. Jared Gordon -147 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

11. Francisco Trinaldo -195 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

12. Jarred Brooks -157 

1. Demian Maia +120 

2. Niko Price +110 

3. Jack Hermansson -118 

4. Rob Font -140 

5. Derek Brunson -150 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

1. Jim Miller +180:  I feel Miller has a little more value than he should. I think Trinaldo edges him out but I had Miller closer to +130 to +140. Hedge a parlay with Trinaldo involved with a small bet on Jimmy.

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Content.

 

Prop Bets

 

Demian Maia to Win by Submission +350 

Maia’s submission game is elite. He wasn’t able to tap Masvidal or even get Woodley in a position to submit him, but prior to that he has tapped 3 of his last 4. Covington is going to struggle with Demian’s forward pressure and pursuit of the finish on the mat. Anytime you can get a submission ace at this price to win by submission, you have to lay some coinage on the line.

Jack Hermansson/Thiago Santos Total Rounds Under 1.5 -105 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is the type of play that keeps both fighters’ finishing skills in play. Hermansson seems to have a set method of attack that has been working for him and it should work here as well. Santos is an animal and if he lands a shin upside Hermansson’s head, he is going to put him away. Either way, play the Under.

John Lineker to Win by TKO/KO/DQ -125 

This option makes this fight far more playable. Lineker throws bombs and Vera will struggle to get his respect and keep him from moving forward constantly. It might take him a few shots to the body to open Vera up, but eventually, Lineker is going to finish him.

Niko Price/Vicente Luque 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Bet Pack Scenario Section.

Antonio Carlos Junior to Win by Submission +110 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Similar to Maia, when you get a chance to back a top level grappler to win by submission at a decent line- you do it. Marshman has never been subbed, but his TDD is a major concern. If ACJ gets him on the mat enough, a sub opportunity will materialize. Play the Brazilian to snatch up an RNC for the win.

Jared Gordon to Win by Decision +162 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Dias is a tough out and represents a large step up in competition. Both those scenarios suggest this fight is going to go the distance. I have Gordon to outwork him on the feet, but I don’t expect him to get his wrestling involved which is his bread and butter. If that’s the case, he might struggle to find the finish.

Deiveson Figueiredo/Jarred Brooks

See the Bet Pack Scenario Section.

Christian Colombo/Marcelo Golm 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Bet Pack Scenario Section.

 

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