UFN 118: Cerrone vs Till- Bet Pack Review

 

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Depending on your betting style, you can select the Big Bank Roll Parlays which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Big Risk/ Big Reward Parlays are for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

 

 

 

Draftkings Line up

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Fighter 1: Donald Cerrone $8500 
Fighter 2: Adam Wieczorek $8600 
Fighter 3: Damian Stasiak $7900 
Fighter 4: Sam Alvey $8000 
Fighter 5: Devin Clark $8400 
Fighter 6: Felipe Arantes $7100 
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: Andre Fili $8700 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Warlley Alves $9200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: 
Fighter 4: 
 

 

Darren Till +138 vs Donald Cerrone -152 

This is a big fight for Till. He has an oppurtunity to leap into the upper level of the division with a win over a big name. For Cerrone, a loss all but closes the book on his campaign to capture a UFC title. Cerrone has never lost 2 fights in a row before this stretch and I expect him to rebound here. Cerrone has a more diversified offense and Till has a tendency to slow down in fights after the opening round. While Cowboy doesn’t have the best gas tank, his experience on the big stage will put him in a better spot to win this fight in the later stages once Till begins to slowdown. Cerrone wins a must-win fight. Gold Play.

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Cerrone is a killer and can put up decent offensive numbers. Over 5 rounds, even without a finish look for Cowboy to pile up the fantasy points. Cerrone’s wrestling could be an underrated producer of points.

Jodie Esquibel +415 vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz -485 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

KK has lost back to back fights against the top rated fighters in the division. Esquibel is not that, but at this price, this is an easy walk away.

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I will pass here as well.

Devin Clark -146 vs Jan Blachowicz +143 

Blachowicz is fighting at home, but he has simply been too underwhelming to back. Clark is still a little green, but his activity rate and superior cardio are the keys here. If Clark gets his wrestling going that should be the clincher in this fight. Jan struggles in the clinch, struggles off his back, and his cardio is a major issue. Clark is a Gold level play for me.

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I don’t see Clark scooping up the finish here, but he should be able to compile a pretty decent score between strikes and takedowns. His price is affordable and that is also quite crucial with so many heavier favourites on the card.

Jonathan Wilson +170 vs Oskar Piechota -186 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I will admit that I overlooked the division that this fight was taking place in. That being said, I’m not sure the cut will help Wilson. Making the drop to 185 from 205 is tough. Wilson’s cardio is a major issue and his lack of success against capable opposition raises some red flags. Piechota is going to push Wilson early and that will pay dividends late. I like that Piechota is fighting at home, that will boost his performance and take away from Wilson. I’ve got Piechota in my Bronze section considering the lack of big stage experience.

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Piechota is a little expensive for a debuting fighter and the budget is already spread a little thin. I will take a pass here.

Marcin Held -385 vs Nasrat Haqparast +336 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Held has underperformed significantly and even with the late notice he is not worth any type of play here. I will pass.

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Held has finishing potential, but the combo of his big price tag and recent struggles is enough to make him a non-starter.

Adam Wieczorek -137 vs Anthony Hamilton +135 

I’m not sure how Hamilton is in this fight. He announces his retirement which is one thing, but he got knocked out a month ago. A month. His chin is gone and that makes him an instant fade even against a debuting fighter like Wieczorek. With the limited info, I’ve got Wieczorek as a Bronze play but he could work is way up the latter before we are all done.

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With Hamilton’s chin issues, Wieczorek is a must play at $8600. Simple reason. Simple play.

Brian Kelleher -108 vs Damian Stasiak +100 

Kelleher posted about having a tough weight cut which is a good thing. Stasiak is a good submission fighter and Kelleher has some major grappling issues that I think the Polish fighter can exploit. I give the edge to Stasiak on the feet as well which will force Kelleher into some desperate TDAs. Stasiak gets a Silver nod.

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Stasiak is very affordable at $7900 for a guy that has finished each of his last 2 wins. Add him to your line up kids.

Ramazan Emeev -155 vs Sam Alvey +143 

Alvey took this fight on short notice and had to cut a lot of weight. That isn’t good, but I hope that he recognized he wasn’t going to make it and didn’t stress himself. Fortunately, his style doesn’t require him to really push the pace. Emeev is going to move forward aggressively and Alvey is going to sit back and counter strike. Emeev is hittable and has been stunned before in fights. Alvey gets it done as a Silver play.

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Alvey is sitting at $8000 which is a little higher than I expected, but I am still going to roll with him and look for an early finish. Sam is the type of fighter that can make or break your lineup. He either scores big early or struggles to mount much offense and frustrates you. I’m hoping for scenario 1! Add him.

Andre Fili -161 vs Artem Lobov +158 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Lobov just isn’t that good, but I will give him credit for hanging with Swanson in his last fight. Fili, on the other hand, has potential but has routinely underperformed. With his reach, superior work rate, and potential to use his wrestling- Fili should be able to win this fight fairly handily if he doesn’t foul it up! I had him as a Gold play, but I’m going to drop him down to my top Silver option.

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Lobov is no easy finish and Fili is up there at $8700, he could work in as a sub but not a starter.

Salim Touahri +263 vs Warlley Alves -290 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Alves should take this one fairly handily as long as he doesn’t gas himself looking for the early finish. Alves has a dangerous submission game and decent wrestling to set it up. Touahri is simply taking too big of a step too quickly in this fight and doing it on short notice. Gold Play.

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Alves is just too expensive for the lineup I want to put in play unless you sub out one of my bigger options and use the extra cash. I’ve got him as a sub.

Aspen Ladd -215 vs Lina Lansberg +236 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is a borderline play. I’m not thrilled with the line so I am tempted to leave it off altogether. Ladd could be an add-in to a low-level play or she could be nothing.

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Pass here.

Felipe Arantes +284 vs Josh Emmett -300 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I’m not touching this fight as I feel it could be closer than the line indicates. Arantes is a capable fighter and Emmett is cutting down a division with a lot of question marks in the process. Counter Bet? Pass on Emmett is a definite.

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I’m going to use Arantes to finish my lineup. I have to pick a counter bet option and he is very cheap and if he wins it will probably be by finish.

 

1. Warlley Alves -290 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Devin Clark -146 

3. Donald Cerrone -152 

4. Andre Fili -161 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Adam Wieczorek -137 

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6. Karolina Kowalkiewicz -485 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

7. Marcin Held -385 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

8. Josh Emmett -300 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

9. Oskar Piechota -186 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

10. Damian Stasiak +100 

11. Aspen Ladd -215 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

12. Sam Alvey +143 

1. Sam Alvey +143 

2. Damian Stasiak +100 

3. Adam Wieczorek -137 

4. Donald Cerrone -152 

5. Andre Fili -161 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

1. Felipe Arantes +284 

2. Lina Lansberg +236 

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Content.

Prop Bets

Donald Cerrone to Win inside the distance +152 

Cowboy can put a lot of damage on his opponent and over 5 rounds it is going to pile up. Till tends to slow down and if that takes place here, look for Cerrone to put together a lethal fight ending combo. Whether by submission after a knockdown or straight TKO- the finish is coming.

Devin Clark to Win by Decision +150 

Clark has gone the distance in each of his last 2 fights and is taking a step up in competition against big Jan. Blachowicz is no easy out and has gone the distance in 9 of his last 10 fights. Take Clark on the cards.

Marcin Held/Nasrat Haqparast

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Adam Wieczorek/Anthony Hamilton Total Rounds Under 1.5 -150 

Hamilton has shown he can finish if he lands something, but more crucial to this play has been his chin or lack thereof. I don’t expect to see this fight going beyond round 1 and I would like to keep both men’s finishing skills in play.

Brian Kelleher/Damian Stasiak to Win by Submission +350 

Kelleher relies heavily on his wrestling, but he has also been submitted 5-times in his career- that’s a lot. Stasiak has a pair of submission wins in the UFC  with 7 of his 10 wins by sub and he has shown that he isn’t afraid to attack from anywhere. With a solid return like this its hard to overlook those numbers.

Sam Alvey to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +420[/T] 

Alvey is a counter striker and the key to beating him has been with a cautious attack where you either fight all the way in or all the way out. Kick from the outside or smother in the clinch, but don’t expose yourself to his power by rushing forward. That is what Emeev is going to do. Keep in mind, Alvey failed to make weight so he might be concerned with fighting a full 3-rounds and come out looking for the finish early. I like Alvey to get back on track against a hittable opponent that wants to move forward.

Aspen Ladd/Lina Lansberg

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Felipe Arantes/Josh Emmett

See the Betting Scenario Section.

 

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