UFN 117: Saint Preux vs Okami- Bet Pack Review

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Draftkings Line up

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Kamikaze
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Fighter 1: Jessica Andrade $7200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Dong Hyun Kim $9100 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: Gokhan Saki $8600 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: Daichi Abe $7800 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 5: Teruto Ishihara $8700 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 6: Keita Nakamura $7700 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: Jussier Formiga $9200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Luke Jemeau $8900 
Fighter 3: 
Fighter 4: 
  
 

Ovince Saint Preux -440 vs Yushin Okami +390 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is a HARD NO! OSP knows how to lose fights he should win and Okami is a solid veteran fighter that is fighting at home and probably very happy to be back in the UFC. The juice isn’t worth the squeeze here. Pass.

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OSP getting the finish is probably going to happen, but at $9500 your money is better spent elsewhere.

Claudia Gadelha -266 vs Jessica Andrade +248 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I broke this fight down before the line was out and I am a little shocked and a lot happy looking at the value on Andrade. If Gadelha takes her down, she absolutely can win this fight- in dominant fashion. Andrade is one of the few fighters in the division that can match Claudia’s physical strength and that is going to be an issue for CG. Look for Andrade to light her up in the feet, and keep Gadelha backing up for the duration of the fight. Big spot for Andrade here. Strong Silver Play!

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Whether it be with volume or a stoppage or a combination of both, Jessica is going to score points here. Not only that, she is incredibly cheap! Grabbing a fighter that can finish at $7200 is a massive steal. Make it happen.

Dong Hyun Kim -345 vs Takanori Gomi +330 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Gomi is done and has been done for a while. I think this is a favour by the UFC to let him go out at home. Kim could get himself drawn into a firefight that allows Takanori to shine one more time, but I doubt it. That being said, I am going to pass on a straight bet here and look at the prop options. No Play.

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I do have Kim in my fantasy lineup. Gomi has been stopped in 4 straight fights, all in the opening round. Kim as the tools to make it 5 in a row. Add him.

Gokhan Saki -170 vs Henrique Da Silva +160 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This could be exciting. Saki is coming in as a world-class kickboxer. How will he do? Does Da Silva come out spamming takedowns until he gets one? Can Saki get up if he gets taken down? There are so many questions to be answered about this fight. I like Saki to get the job done here against a fighter that is defensively flawed and willing to throw down on the feet. Silver play here based on the unknowns.

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The Brazilian gets hit a lot and he is coming off a knockout loss. With the barrage of violence that Saki can put together, a finish early in the fight is a real possibility. Add him.

Rolando Dy +145 vs Teruto Ishihara -137 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I wasn’t impressed with Dy in his debut and I look at Ishihara as having a lot more upside. The UFC should recognize this and will want to showcase him at home. I have found success backing fighters on 2-fight losing streaks when they get a step down in competition. That is what TI is getting here. Dy will be there to hit and doesn’t offer the type of pace or ground attack that will trouble Ishihara. Gold Play for Teruto to get back on track.

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Considering Ishihara’s track record of finishes and how easily Caceres was able to back Dy down and hurt him, I like Teruto for the finish. It might take him more than a round to get him out of there, but I still see him getting the job done.

Jussier Formiga -398 vs Ulka Sasaki +355 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Formiga is simply better at what Sasaki does well. The key to beating Formiga is to force him to stand and then outwork him on the feet. Formiga’s striking is improving every fight and Sasaki doesn’t offer enough on the feet to get the better of him. Sasaki’s willingness to go to the mat will create opportunities for Jussier to set up his mat game and eventually get to Ulka’s back. I’ve got Jussier as a Gold play option.

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I’ve got Jussier as a spare. His takedown game will produce points and his ability to end a fight on the mat adds further scoring potential. With the leftover cash still in the bank, you could swap out any of the favoured fighters.

Alex Morono -120 vs Keita Nakamura +115 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I don’t like Morono’s style, but it has been working for him so far. His TDD hasn’t really been tested, but I expect Nakamura to change that. Keita keeps it simple on the feet and should be able to find his way to the inside where he can clinch and put Morono on his back. I like backing a slight dog at home to get the job done. I also think Morono’s confidence could be a little shaken by the result of his last fight. For an aggressive forward first brawler, getting violently knocked out can impact your willingness to attack like you use to. Gold Play for the slight dog.

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Nakamura is affordable and has a solid finishing resume. I expect him to change takedowns and transitions together until he gets in a position to finish. With only 10 fights to pick from, you can’t go wrong with a home underdog with a takedown-heavy approach and finishing skills.

Chan-Mi Jeon +100 vs Syuri Kondo -106 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Jeon is still pretty green, but I did like what I saw in her debut. That being said, Kondo comes from a striking background and is the more technical fighter. Jeon lost her last fight because she got hit too much by an equally as green fighter. Kondo will keep her attack simple, but effective and land her 1-2 at will. She is debuting and Jeon is making just her second appearance. We don’t know how either fighter will respond here, so I am knocking it down to a Bronze play.

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I see this fight going the distance and Kondo’s record is almost 100% decisions. I will pass.

Luke Jumeau -240 vs Shinsho Anzai +225 

Anzai has been out a long time and I have been having a lot of success fading fighters coming off 2-year layoffs. Jumeau is the better striker and has the better overall gas tank. He needs to defend the early takedowns or at least force Anzai to work hard for them. He should be able to take over the fight in round 2 once Shinsho gasses out. Gold Play here.

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I will add Jumeau as a spare. He can finish and Anzai can be finished. Certainly an option to help diversify your lineup.

Daichi Abe +110 vs Hyun Gyu Lim -115 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I like Lim, but the layoff, his questionable cardio, and his recent knockout losses are all major red flags. Abe is younger, with less wear and tear, and he is a capable striker. If Lim can’t get him out of there early, he is going to struggle to hold up as the fight advances. There is also the real possibility that the South Korean’s lack of defense will get him cracked early and often, leading to a knockout before his cardio has a chance to give out. Silver Play for Abe.

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Abe is another affordable option, with quick finishing skills and he is taking on an opponent that has been knocked out on multiple occasions. Add in that Abe is fighting at home and I see this fight ending badly for Lim. Add Abe!

1. Jussier Formiga -398 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Dong Hyun Kim -345 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Ovince Saint Preux -440 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Teruto Ishihara -137 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Luke Jumeau -240 

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6. Gokhan Saki -170 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

7. Keita Nakamura +115 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

8. Jessica Andrade +248 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

9. Daichi Abe +110 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

10. Syuri Kondo -106 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

 

1. Jessica Andrade +248 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Keita Nakamura +115 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Daichi Abe +110 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Syuri Kondo -106 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Gokhan Saki -170 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Information.

Prop Bets

Ovince Saint Preux to Win by KO/TKO/DQ -105 

OSP isn’t an elite level striker, but he hits hard and is willing to engage. Okami has been knocked out 5-times, including in 4 of his last 5 defeats. At LHW he will be dealing with a larger man, who hits hard and is more physical than he is used to. I expect OSP comes out aggressive early and looks to get the fight over with early, but he may need more than the 1.5 rounds offer in the Over/Under.

Dong Hyun Kim to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +120 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I just don’t see Gomi having enough in him to get Kim out of there before Kim gets the fight to the mat. Gomi has been so badly dominated on the mat once they hit the ground that I can’t imagine Kim won’t come out looking for the takedown ASAP. Once, on the mat the only thing that will prevent this prop from cashing is if Dong opts to look for a choke. Take the plus money here and bank on a GNP finish.

Gokhan Saki/Henrique Da Silva Total Rounds Under 1.5 -180 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This line is floating between -180 and -205, it is a solid play within that range. I’ve got Saki winning by knockout, but if Da Silva gets on top, he could end it just as quickly via sub or TKO. I don’t see this fight getting out of the opening round, but keep both scenario’s open.

Teruto Ishihara to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +130 

Teruto has finished his opponent in 8 of 9 fights, all by knockout. Dy was stopped in his debut due to an injury, but it was the result of getting hit too much in the face. Ishihara hits hard, harder than Caceres and he should be able to back Dy up and land with regularity.

Jussier Formiga to Win by Submission +235 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

While I could see this fight going the distance, Formiga is just too good on the mat not to take a shot at the submission prop here. Sasaki has had issues on the mat with superior grapplers and Formiga is the best he has faced to date. Look for Jussier to get on his back and lock this one down.

Alex Morono/Keita Nakamura 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See Betting Scenario Scenario Section.

Luke Jumeau/Shinsho Anzai 

See Betting Scenario Scenario Section.

Daichi Abe/Hyun Gyu Lim 

See Betting Scenario Scenario Section.

 

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