UFN 116: Rockhold vs Branch- Bet Pack Review

 

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Depending on your betting style, you can select the Big Bank Roll Parlays which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Big Risk/ Big Reward Parlays are for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

 

 

 

Draftkings Line up

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Fighter 1: Mike Perry $8500 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Justin Ledet $9100 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: Gregor Gillespie $9400 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: Tony Martin $7800 
Fighter 5: Gilbert Burns $8300 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 6: David Branch $6900 
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: Hector Lombard $8100 
Fighter 2: Anthony Hamilton $8800 
Fighter 3: 
Fighter 4: 
 
 
 

David Branch +431 vs Luke Rockhold -509 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is a No Play for me. Rockhold should win this fight, but with the post-title fight letdown scenario in effect he can’t be touched at these odds. I might consider a small play on Branch here and I will look at the props too.

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I have Branch at $6800 in my lineup. It allows me to play a couple of other hefty favourites and if he can go the full 5-rounds even in defeat, he will add some points. Realistically, with only 10 fights on the card I was limited to counter bet options and Branch seemed like the most viable. He might even pull this one out.

Mike Perry -450 vs Alex Reyes +400 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Late notice replacement makes this fight untouchable. Reyes could shock us, but it’s not worth the risk. I will look at a prop bet though. No Play. An exciting way to end the card eh!

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I have Perry in my lineup. He has finished his foe in all 10 of his wins and with Reyes coming in on very short notice, with limited long fight experience, and moving up from LW against a heavier man I don’t see him going the distance. Add him.

Hector Lombard +103 vs Anthony Smith -110 

Finally, we get a fight to talk about. Smith has come a long way and Lombard has backslid, but I think there are some stylistic issues that will hamper Smith here. He struggles with his TDD and Lombard is heavy on top. Smith also does his best vertical offense in the clinch, where Lombard judo will make it tough for Anthony to find much success. Keep an eye on Lombard if he gets off to a strong start but appears to be fading, a Live bet on Smith might be an option- but I like Lombard in my Silver section as a slight dog.

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I have Lombard as a spare. Smith gets finished a lot, even though it hasn’t happened recently. The other option is Hector works his takedowns and piles up points that way. Keep him as a backup option.

Gregor Gillespie -411 vs Jason Gonzalez +375 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Let’s make it 3 of the last 4 fights of the night- pass! I will look at a prop bet here, but that is it.

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Gonzo has been finished in all of his losses. Gillespie isn’t Rumble Johnson, but he hits hard and his wrestling puts him in place to do a lot of damage. I think he gets the finish, add him!

Kamaru Usman -650 vs Sergio Moraes +587 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

No plays for 4 of the 5 last fights on the card? Yup! Usman should win unless he puts himself in a bad spot. As per usual, the prop bets will be examined. Rinse and repeat.

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Nothing here. Usman is expensive and finishing Moraes isn’t easy.

Justin Ledet -345 vs Azunna Anyanwu +363 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Do I pass on another fight? No! Even at this hefty of a line there is value in Ledet. He should be a much bigger favourite here against an untested and short notice replacement. I will use him in my Silver section to round out a parlay.

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Ledet offers volume, takedowns, and finish potential everywhere. He is a must play even at $9100. Add him.

Tony Martin +107 vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier -117 

I have been impressed with Martin of late and while OAM is no slouch, he is up against it here. Martin is the better striker and bigger man overall. If OAM can’t drag him down and keep him there, he is going to struggle on the feet. Based on previous performances, I had Martin at -125 or a little higher even. He is simply the more well-rounded fighter and OAM relies too much on his ground skills. Gold Play for the dog.

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Martin is a deal at $7800. If he going to finish OAM, probably not, but his improving striking skills will produce decent points and he will most likely land a takedown or 2. We need some dog money on this card and Martin is where it is at.

Anthony Hamilton -193 vs Daniel Spitz +186 

Hamilton’s chin is an issue, but I see him being just too physical for a still-developing Spitz. If Spitz’s cardio is partially as bad as it looked in his last fight, he will struggle as Hamilton pushes the fight into the second half as he has done multiple times before. Hamilton is a Silver play for me.

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Takedowns are certainly a point producer for Hamilton and he has shown he can finish when given the opportunity. At $8800, he is a little too pricey based on his chin, but I will take a shot on him as a spare.

Krzysztof Jotko -191 vs Uriah Hall +175 

I think its over for Hall. At least his run of competing and winning against other top-level opponents is done. Jotko needs to avoid that big one hitter quitter, but he should find success outworking Hall in all areas of the fight.

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Jotko is a grinder and a decision machine. I will pass.

Gilbert Burns -134 vs Jason Saggo +123 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I see a lot of people backing Saggo and in my experience, popular underdog picks are a mistake to back. I like Burns as the better striker and superior ground fighter. Unless Burns as devolved and Saggo improved in all areas, Gil has the skill to get back in the win column. Gold Play.

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Burns has finished his foe in all of his UFC wins. Saggo will either engage him on the mat or not be stout enough defensively to remain vertical. Burns will have chances to finish as a result. Add him.

 

 

1. Justin Ledet -345 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Kamaru Usman -650 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Mike Perry -450 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Gregor Gillespie -411 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Krzysztof Jotko -191 

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6. Luke Rockhold -509 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

7. Tony Martin +107 

8. Gilbert Burns -134 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

9. Anthony Hamilton -193 

10. Hector Lombard +103 

 

1. Tony Martin +107 

2. Hector Lombard +103 

3. Gilbert Burns -134 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Tony Martin to Win by Decision +201 

5. Gilbert Burns to Win by Submission +425 

1. David Branch +431 

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Information.

Prop Bets

Luke Rockhold Wins by TKO/KO/DQ +217 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Both men are talented on the mat which should force this fight to be contested on the feet. I’m looking at the kicking game of Rockhold as the key here. Over 5-rounds, it is going to be difficult for Branch to deal with the damage that Luke can dish out up and down the body. Once the impact of the strikes begins to pile up, holes will begin to show as Branch starts to worry about protecting certain areas. Look for a head kick from the former Champion to find its way through.

Gregor Gillespie to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +145 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

We saw improvements in the striking of Gregor in his last fight and Gonzalez has been finished in all of his defeats. Whether on the feet or via top position GNP, Gillespie gets the finish here with form of knockout.

Kamaru Usman to Win by Decision -165 

I don’t see Usman getting a submission over a BJJ ace like Sergio and Moraes isn’t easy to finish on the feet. Look for Usman to utilize a very calculated and strategic fight to avoid making a costly mistake and handing his foe a submission opportunity. He wins it on the cards.

Justin Ledet to Win by Submission +260 

Ledet has showcased his submission skills throughout his pro career and I expect something similar here. His opponent is simply overmatched and if Ledet takes him down, the gap will be further magnified. Justin continues to impress with a well-rounded attack that ends on the mat.

Tony Martin/Olivier Aubin-Mercier 

See Betting Scenario Section.

Krzysztof Jotko/Uriah Hall 

See Betting Scenario Section.

Gilbert Burns/Jason Saggo 

See Betting Scenario Section.

 

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