UFN 108: Swanson vs Lobov- “Cub Smash!”

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Smashville played host to UFC Fight Night 108 and a number of violent finishes, including a couple of long-time UFC vets suffering significant setbacks. Cub Swanson continued his pursuit of an elusive shot at the title with another win and Al Iaquinta is still mad. Let’s take a look at the fights to make after Saturday night.

Cub Swanson vs Ricardo Lamas

These two fought back in 2011, with Lamas bagging the submission win. I would think Cub would like to get that loss off his record. While there is a case for Cub to get a shot at the title, if Yair Rodriguez gets by Frankie Edgar, Yair jumps to the front of the line. Both fighters are in similar spots and a 5-round Fight Night main event would be a great showcase.

Al Iaquinta vs Michael Johnson

Al as been quite vocal about his issues with the UFC, but if he opts to return I like this fight. It is a winner versus loser pairing, but that seems to be more of the norm under the new regime. Johnson needs a win to get back on track and Iaquinta needs a higher profile victory to help move him up the ranks. I considered a fight with Barboza, but I want to see him against the winner of Alvarez/Poirier next.

Diego Sanchez

His once vaunted chin and durability is gone. It might be time for Diego to hang them up. If not, he might find a home in Bellator if the UFC opts to discontinue their relationship with the TUF alumni.

John Dodson vs Winner of Raphael Assuncao/ Marlon Moraes

Dodson can be a frustrating fighter to watch, but he is in the mix. This pairing might be more of a showcase for either Assuncao or the former WSOF champ. The winner of that fight could be close to a title shot, but still needing another big win. Dodson is a legit contender himself, but hasn’t done enough at Bantamweight to get his shot. One of these three men takes a big step towards a title shot.

Eddie Wineland vs Dominick Cruz

I have always wanted to see this fight. Both fighters that unique styles and this could be the most likely time to see these two paired up. Let’s make it a Fight Night main event so we can watch them scrap it out for 5-rounds.

Stevie Ray vs Rashid Magomedov

Ray has knocked off a couple of well-established UFC vets, but that first round was rough. Let’s head to Europe and pair Ray and Magomedov up what should be a pretty entertaining striking based fight.

Mike Perry vs Leon Edwards

Talk about Alan Jouban’s worst nightmare. He beats Perry and loses to a ranked opponent. Perry gets the Ellenberger bout and comes out with a highlight real victory. Edwards just cracked the Top 15, so let’s have these two square off the next time the UFC heads to the United Kingdom.

Jake Ellenberger

Even more so than Diego, the stoppage losses are mounting for Jake. It might be time to walk away or look to the slightly less demanding pastures of Bellator for a few fights to end his career on.

Thales Leites vs Winner of Derek Brunson/ Daniel Kelly

Leites isn’t selling out venues with his performances, but he is staying relevant in the lower half of the rankings. Brunson and Kelly are going to throw down and Thales would be a suitable next opponent for the winner. Either Brunson or Leites gets to further rebuild their run up the ranks or Kelly continues his improbable underdog story.

Sam Alvey vs Rashad Evans

Evans’s start at Middleweight didn’t go as planned, but Alvey would be a good test to help get him back on track. If Alvey snares the win, it’s a big name to add to his record.

Brando Moreno vs Ray Borg

Moreno was on his way to a defeat after the opening round, but turned it around in a big way. It is hard to get a good read on him considering he just snuck by Benoit but finished a pair of legit top ranked fighters. Borg is closing in on a shot at the title but needs to show he can make weight consistently. Big opportunity for both men. Make it happen.

Alexis Davis

The former title challenger grinded out a tough win to get back in the mix after her unsuccessful return. Katlyn Chookagian is coming off a big win and would love to snatch Davis’s spot above here. Davis needs to show she can beat back the coming wave of new fighters. This would be a good test.

Final Thoughts

The card was decent and produced some noteworthy moments far better than what most expected to see. It is always nice when a card surpasses expectations.

I went 10-3 but this night could have been so much more! The strong starts from Ortiz and Lauzon looked so promising, but they couldn’t follow through in the end. Either way, it’s a start, but it needs to continue.

Parlay Header

Depending on your betting style, you can select the Big Bank Roll Parlays which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Big Risk/ Big Reward Parlays are for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

 

 

 

Draftkings Line up

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DraftKings
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Fighter 1: Ovince St. Preux $8700 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Joe Lauzon $7400 
Fighter 3: Mike Perry $8400 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: Bryan Barberena $9100 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 5: Danielle Taylor $7700 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 6: Matt Schnell $8000 
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: John Dodson $9400 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: 
Fighter 3: 
Fighter 4: 
 
 
 

Artem Lobov +540 vs Cub Swanson -588 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

His last fight might have taken a little out of him, but I don’t see Cub dropping this one. Lobov just isn’t there. Still, no bet here. A prop option is a maybe.

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No Fantasy here, too expensive and Artem could stick around to spoil the party.

Al Iaquinta -365 vs Diego Sanchez +328 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Al has been out of action for a long time and has some issues with close fights. Sanchez has been known to steal close fights and has been very active of late. This is also a no play.

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Sanchez is hard to finish, making a stoppage win unlikely. Pass.

Marcos Rogerio De Lima +140 vs Ovince Saint Preux -150 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

De Lima missed weight and we have already discussed his lack of long fight experience. While OSP is far from a cardio horse, a longer fight would favour him. Still, OSP is at his best in the opening round and De Lima will fold up as soon as the pressure gets on him. I’m taking a slightly more conservative approach for this card and OSP isn’t exactly in a good spot momentum-wise- Silver play.

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Considering how long it has been since De Lima has seen a second round, OSP is a solid play. When he wins, he usually puts up 100 points and I see that playing out here. Add him to the lineup.

Eddie Wineland +400 vs John Dodson -470 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Unless he get’s knocked out for the first time ever, Dodson’s style is going to give Wineland fits. While the line is steep, I will most likely pair him up with another play in my Gold section for the Big Bankroll bundle. Dodson will get left off the card on the Big Reward section unless a prop bet comes up.

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He is awfully expensive, but I will plug him in as a sub option. The reason I opted not to build a lineup around him is his tendency to hold back on the volume at times. If he doesn’t score the knockout, his return will be much lower than the price suggests it should be.

Joe Lauzon +169 vs Stevie Ray -180 

If Ray keeps the fight standing, he is the favourite, but Lauzon will be able to hold his own. If Lauzon takes him down, he will be way ahead. Ray has had major issues with fighters that try to take him down. Additionally, Lauzon’s record with a single completed takedown is fantastic and it is also good when he holds his opponent under 50 sig strikes. Ray has yet to crack that number. I like Lauzon here as either a Silver or Bronze play depending on the number of legs and size of the investment.

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Lauzon is the type of capable finisher that opens up other doors with the cash you save. If he gets the fight to the mat he isn’t going to sit in guard and grind it out, he will look to finish. I love that about Joe. Add him.

Jake Ellenberger +138 vs Mike Perry -140 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Ellenberger’s inability to deal with pressure and power plays right into the wheelhouse of Perry. I dislike this guy, but I expect he will be able to catch Jake at some point in the first half of the fight and put him away. Ellenberger is on the downswing of his career and Perry pushes him one step closer. Perry is a Gold Play.

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At $8400 and totals of 115 and 145 in his 2 wins, Perry is a playable option. Jake’s chin only serves to complete the equation. Add him.

Sam Alvey +113 vs Thales Leites -123 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I wouldn’t be the least bit shocked to see Alvey score the KO. If he doesn’t, his volume (or lack thereof) makes him vulnerable to getting outworked. Leites can work the clinch to take Sam’s striking out of the equation and he scores some pretty decent TDs from the position. Fights in this spot have been going the distance with matchmakers putting together stylistic pairings that will avoid big gaps between the prelims and the main card. That favours Leites. Silver play.

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Thales is a non-starter. The volume won’t be overwhelming and a win will most likely come by decision if he can snap up a sub.

Brandon Moreno +150 vs Dustin Ortiz -145 

Ortiz is a little frustrating and has struggled against the top end guys. Moreno got a big rub from Smolka and then fought a very close fight against Benoit. Ortiz carries the superior pace and is a handful on the mat. He should against Makovsky, that he can beat good ground fighters on the floor and should have success against Moreno there. Dustin gets it done, Gold Play.

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We are going the distance, No Play.

Michael McBride +314 vs Scott Holtzman -340 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

McBride is going to struggle with the physicality of Holtzman. The line is big, but Holtzman paired with a stronger favourite will make for a decent 2 leg parlay. Silver Play.

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Nothing here.

Danielle Taylor +115 vs Jessica Penne -117 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I was on Penne originally but made the change. She has been smashed in her last 2 fights by the 2 best fighters in the division, no shame in that. Taylor leaves a lot to be desired, but I think her style will frustrate Penne. She has just enough power to back her off and her lateral movement and short stature will compromise Jessica’s ability to change levels. Close Fight. Bronze Play.

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Taylor is a cost effective option for my lineup. She has power and could do some damage against an opponent that has been badly beaten up in her last 2 fights. I’m not looking for 90+ points here, but if it hits I won’t complain. Add her.

Alexis Davis -277 vs Cindy Dandois +279 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I might consider a bet on Davis here as a complimentary play, but Dandois has a strong ground game that could create some issues if they hit the floor.

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Dandois is pretty rough on the feet and Davis could put her away if she can start to unload. Might be worth a look, but I’ll pass for now.

Bryan Barberena -295 vs Joe Proctor +285 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Proctor is coming back off a layoff and is going to face a guy that can really break you down with pace and damage. I don’t see him holding up under the pressure and he won’t have the wrestling to take Barberena down. Gold Play.

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I’m looking at a stoppage, potentially in the middle round after “Bam Bam” piles up the damage. The volume and stoppage will score for you. Sign him.

Hector Sandoval +105 vs Matt Schnell -110 

This could be a close fight, but I think Schnell is flying under the radar a bit. His length and activity will give Sandoval issues and force him to shoot. Schnell can be taken down, but he is pretty crafty on the mat. Either scores a sub or does more to a close decision. Bronze play.

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Schnell’s cheap and can finish. I like him to outwork or finish Sandoval, he’ll put points up for you. Have him in your lineup.

 

1. Cub Swanson -588 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. John Dodson -470 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Bryan Barberena -295 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Scott Holtzman -340 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Mike Perry -140 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

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6. Al Iaquinta -365 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

7. Dustin Ortiz -145 

8. Ovince Saint Preux -150 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

9. Joe Lauzon +169 

10. Alexis Davis -277 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

11. Thales Leites -123 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

12. Matt Schnell -110 

13. Danielle Taylor +115 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

1. Joe Lauzon +169 

2. Danielle Taylor +115 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Matt Schnell -110 

4. Mike Perry -140 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Thales Leites -123 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

1. N/A

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Scenario.

Prop Bets

Cub Swanson to Win by TKO/KO/DQ -120 

Swanson can pile up the damage over 5 rounds and Lobov is going to struggle with his speed and power. Artem has only be knocked out once, but in a fight like this, it will be difficult for him to go a full 25-minutes.

Ovince Saint Preux to Win in the 1st Round +175 

Most of us were very young the last time de Lima went the distance or even out of the first frame. He has been finished in 3 of his 4 defeats and OSP is at his best in the opening round. de Lima came in over weight, so I expect him to go for it early, make a mistake, and give OSP top position for the finish. Specific, but what I am expecting to see.

John Dodson to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +125 

Dodson has power and speed. That combo will test Wineland’s odd and defensively vulnerable striking style. Eddie has been knocked out 3-times and if Dodson can connect flush we’ll see a 4th added to his record.

Mike Perry to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +130 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This card is going to last 15 minutes total based on all the knockouts. Perry has won all 9 of his fights by knockout and Ellenberger has been knocked out 4-times. When you have those odds and plus money to work with, you have to play it.

Sam Alvey/Thales Leites 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Dustin Ortiz to Win by Decision -101 

Ortiz has gone the distance in 7 of his last 8 fights, winning 3. Moreno is fun fighter, but he hasn’t had to deal with this type of wrestler/scrambler. Ortiz will defend and win almost every scramble on the mat, leading to a win on the scorecards.

Scott Holtzman to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +250 

I have seen this line in the +300 range on some sites. Holtzman does a pretty good job of busting guys up and McBride is going to wear himself out looking to get the fight to the mat. It might not happen in the opening round, but eventually, Holtzman puts him down.

Danielle Taylor to Win by Decision +159 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Taylor has been a part of some close fights and her style of avoiding on the outside and then leaping into attack will frustrate Penne for the duration. Penne has taken some sizeable beatings her in last 2 fights, she might be a little gunshy to step into the pocket. Close, possibly a split here.

Bryan Barberena/Joe Proctor 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Hector Sandoval/Matt Schnell

See the Betting Scenario Section.

 

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