UFN 107: Manuwa vs Anderson- “Posterized”

I wrote this...

With the United Kingdom already holding sway over the Middleweight division, several local fighters picked up big wins in the Octagon’s return to London. Unfortunately, the storybook ending was not to be for long-time veteran Brad Pickett. Let’s take a look at what went wrong and what few things went right across the big water.

What Went Wrong?
  • There were really only two realistic outcomes for this fight. Either Anderson wrestled his way to a win or Manuwa knocked him out. Clearly, the outcome wasn’t the one I was pulling for.
  • MMA is a cruel, cruel game. Brad Pickett was clearly ahead on the scorecards and just over 60-seconds away from a win at home in his final fight. It is hard to watch a career end like that, but that is the nature of the beast.
  • It was a pretty entertaining scrap on the mat that I had Amirkhani winning. The fight played out pretty much how I expected it to, but we fell one judge short.
  • When Madadi got swept early, it was all downhill from there. No wrestling = No win for Reza.
  • When Barroso wins it usually is a boring affair that involves a massive slowdown on the part of his opponent. Stewart gassed hard wasn’t able to do much in the face of an opponent who only did a little more.
  • The big knock on Luque has been his subpar record in fights that go beyond the opening round. Edwards fought a smart fight early and took over the action once the Brazilian began to slow down.
  • Far from the start he was looking for, Packalen failed to get his hands on Diakiese early and was forced to strike with which went south pretty quickly.
What Went Right?
  • Despite the lack of knockouts on his record, Jouban’s chin has always been a vulnerability. Nelson isn’t the type of fighter you want to hit the mat with under the best of conditions and he had no intentions of letting Jouban off the hook once on the floor.
  • It was a bit of a closer fight than expected, but Johnson made the most of his advantages and wrestled his way to the win.
  • I felt it was a pretty clear victory, but at least one judge disagreed. Scott was clearly the more impactful fighter, hurting Askham on multiple occasions.
  • Lansberg certainly didn’t look like the winner at the end of the fight, but she got her hand raised. Regardless, she did enough in to get her hand raised.
Final Thoughts

Manuwa has struggled against top-level guys, but he has defeated pretty much everyone else he has come across. Still, the win thrusts him into the conversation with some pretty fun fights against Shogun or Glover on the horizon. Nelson is creeping closer to the top of the heap in the Welterweight division and might only be a win or two away from a shot at the gold. My performance was pretty underwhelming, but I did pick up a couple of decent winning bets and entered the main event with some big bets still live. The break from the UFC has been enjoyable, but I’m getting the itch to get back to work. UFC 210 should be a pretty fun card.

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Depending on your betting style, you can select the Big Bank Roll Parlays which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Big Risk/ Big Reward Parlays are for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

 

 

 

Draftkings Line up

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DraftKings
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Fighter 1: Corey Anderson $7800
Fighter 2: Makwan Amirkhani $8300 
Fighter 3: Tim Johnson $8500 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: Teemu Packalen $7300 
Fighter 5: Vicente Luque $8700 
Fighter 6: Brett Johns $9300 sub in Gunnar Nelson $9200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1:  
Fighter 2: 
Fighter 3: 
Fighter 4: 
 
 
 

 

Corey Anderson +125 vs Jimi Manuwa -137 

I love that Manuwa is the favourite. He is coming off of a big win over OSP, but let’s keep things in perspective. OSP is a flawed fighter. Decent wrestling, above average grappling, good power, stiff striking. All of those skills take a hit when his cardio starts to fail and that happened here. OSP won the first round and showed that Manuwa can be beaten on the mat. More like reafirmed that he can be beaten on the mat. Unfortunately, OSP tired and got lit up. I picked that fight correctly. Anderson’s wrestling and gas tank are major advantages that will give Manuwa fits. The big issue for Corey is his chin/ Jimi’s power, but if Manuwa is tired/ grounded he won’t be able to attack. Anderson was close to a Gold play, but he will be a key Silver option.

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Anderson will score points with takedowns. He will score points with top position strikes. And he will score points with a stoppage because Manuwa isn’t going to be able to hold up for 5-rounds fighting off his back. The fact that he is costing us just $7800 is awesome. Sign him up!

Alan Jouban +290 vs Gunnar Nelson -300 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I won’t touch this fight straight up. Nelson should win under most scenarios, but Jouban is dangerous enough at this line to avoid. I don’t think he wins, so a counter bet isn’t worth it either. I will look at a prop option.

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At $9200, Gunnar is an expensive play, but I think he has a legit chance of finishing. I will post him as a sub option. He could replace Brett Johns in my lineup, but I like Johns more based on who he is facing and his track record.

Brad Pickett -137 vs Marlon Vera +128 

I gave Vera a lot of consideration here. I’m hoping Pickett will ride off into the sunset on a high note, but it is far from a foregone conclusion. Vera’s length and crafty grappling could be just enough to pull off the upset. I can’t help but being concerned over Vera’s flying knee or landing square to hurt Pickett leading to a RNC finish. I think the short notice hurts Vera here and he will slow down if this fight goes beyond round 1. Pickett’s wrestling could be key in rounds 2 and 3 to ground Vera and seal the deal. Vera’s lack of overwhelming volume on the feel will open the door for Brad to snatch the opening round. Pickett has been facing top level guys to finish out his career, this is s step backward- still for me its a Bronze play.

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Pickett could score a finish, but this doesn’t seem like a Fantasy point producer.

Arnold Allen +103 vs Makwan Amirkhani -107 

This line is pretty close, but I feel Amirkhani has a noteworthy advantage on the mat. Allen can be taken down and Makwan is the type of fighter that can completely take over a fight once on top. The long limbs of Amirkhani will give Allen fits, even if he is able to get on top. Despite Allen training at Tr-Star, I think Amirkhani is a little further along on the ground and that will be the key to victory. I’ve got Makwan in my Gold section.

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Makwan is a finisher and knows how to put his opponent away when given the opportunity. He if can’t score a finish, look for him to pile up the takedowns and position advances. This should produce a decent numbers of points for an affordable price.

Joseph Duffy -530 vs Reza Madadi +475 

I believe this would be the biggest upset pick I have ever hit if Reza comes through. From the time this fight was announced, I was looking at Madadi. Keep in mind, Duffy is in his final fight on his contract and hasn’t been overly complimentary of the UFC. I could see the company finding him a tough stylistic matchup to hurt his negotiating position with a loss in his final fight. Madadi is a good wrestler and is quite durable. Duffy had major issues with Poirier’s wrestling and is just 2-2 outside of the opening round. I think Reza can grind him down on the floor and put Duffy in some bad spots. He attacked off his back vs Poirier, but he lost the positional battle. Reza shocks everyone with a tough gritty performance, taking over in rounds 2 and 3 after Duffy slows from wrestling/clinch battles. Madadi is a Bronze play.

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No Play here. I considered it to open up other plays, but I felt there are better options that aren’t quite as risky.

Darren Stewart -172 vs Francimar Barroso +164 

We are going to run it back again. The first fight didn’t give us much to go on, but there was something to take away from the action. Stewart looked small, but still was able to back Barroso up to the cage. Francimar doesn’t deal well with being pressured and Stewart was having success early pushing him into the cage. This approach should slow Barroso down in a longer fight, as he tends to gas when not dictating the pace. With Barroso having to travel, that could further diminish his cardio. Stewart is motivated by the last fight being overturned, outworks him early and either stops him or take a decision. Silver Play.

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Stewart is known for his stopping power, but I am going to pass here. The only fighter I could swap him out for without overhauling my lineup is Luque. I don’t like that trade based on the tear that Vicente has been on of late.

Daniel Omielanczuk +165 vs Tim Johnson -175 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I think Johnson is getting really undervalued here. He is bigger and arguably the best wrestler that Omielanczuk has had to deal with in his UFC run. Omielanczuk has major issues with opponents that look to take him down and even if Johnson can’t get him on the mat consistently, Timmy is going to grind him out along the cage. Johnson might not be able to finish him, but he gets the better of Dan everywhere. Gold Play.

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Omielanczuk is tough to finish, but Johnson’s takedowns and constant flow of strikes will pick up some points. A late stoppage isn’t out of the question either. Add him to the lineup at an affordable $8500.

Marc Diakiese -200 vs Teemu Packalen +206 

Diakiese has more tools to work with, but Packalen has the ability to exploit the Brit’s biggest vulnerability. Diakiese struggled through round 1 against Sajewski who took him down twice and controlled the majority of the round on the mat. When Perez took him down, the result was the same. Packalen is a capable ground fighter and knows how to finish. Even if he can’t put Diakiese away, he should be able to keep him grounded. This will open up opportunities on the feet when Diakiese isn’t pushing forward for fear of being taken down. Diakiese is a great athlete, but the technical abilities of Packalen will exploit some of his shortcomings. Silver Play.

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Teemu is a finisher and if given the chance he will put Diakiese away. The manner in which previous opponents have been able to take the Brit down suggests that Teemu will have an opportunity to go for a sub. At $7300, Teemu is a steal based on his finishing skills and he frees up the cash to make our big buys.

Oluwale Bamgbose +252 vs Tom Breese -271

Breese is moving up a division and is still a big guy. Not having to cut down the extra 15 pounds will help tremendously. Oluwale has power, but lacks volume, and if he can’t get the job done early he is going to struggle to keep up. Don’t be surprised to see Breese shoot for takedowns to try and exploit Oluwale’s problems on the the mat. The price isn’t amazing, but it can work alongside a couple of other favourites.

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Breese is more expensive than I am willing to spend. He might get the finish here, but there are a couple of other options that I like better that cost less.

Leon Edwards +125 vs Vicente Luque -122 

Everyone is jumping all over Edward’s grappling skills. I’m not sold on them just yet. Tumenov’s defensive wrestling was always a little suspect and it cost him. Luque’s was taken down several times in his debut, but Edwards isn’t on Graves’s level. Luque is a dangerous striker and Edwards, while capable on the feet, can be outworked. Look for Luque to push the issue and eventually either land tha knockout blow or get the fight to the mat for the finish. Great line on a fighter that is rolling- Gold Play.

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Luque has finished all 4 of his UFC wins, 3 in the opening round. He is dangerous everywhere and should have an advantage no matter where the fight takes place. $8700 is affordable for a killer like Luque. Add him.

Brett Johns -400 vs Ian Entwistle +390

No Play on Johns here, but we will take a look at the prop options available.

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Johns is a lofty $9300, but we are going to play him. Entwistle has never seen the second round in any of his pro bouts. His focus on attacking his opponent’s legs leaves him open to getting finished with strikes from top position. If he gets the tap, this is a bust. If not, the points will be in the 100+ range.

**Update, Nelson replaces Johns after fight cancelled.

Brad Scott +130 vs Scott Askham -140 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Despite picking up a pair of highlight reel wins, Askham hasn’t looked that good. He was arguably losing the first round against Dempsey before getting the finish. The 2 guys he has knocked out have been stopped 7 times- meaning they aren’t known for having a stout chin to start with. Askham’s output isn’t great and he can be bullied on the cage and taken down. Scott is durable, carries better pace, and will push forward to engage. Don’t be surprised to see Scott take this fight to the mat. His performance against Jotko was decent and will get him a win here. Bronze play.

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Scott can finish, but these 2 are closely matched. A decision is in the works, I will pass.

Lina Lansberg -300 vs Lucie Pudilova +270 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Lansberg is a big favourite and won the first meeting pretty easily. There are better options on this card for value but I think Lansberg can be used to augment a Gold play.

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The first fight was a scoring nightmare when it comes to points. No takedowns, limited striking, just not enough to consider a play here. I wouldn’t be shocked at a stoppage for Lansberg if Pudilova fades with the short notice, but I’m not interested from a fantasy perspective.

 

1. Tim Johnson -175 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Lina Lansberg -300 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Gunnar Nelson -300 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Tom Breese -271

5. Vicente Luque -125 

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6. Makwan Amirkhani -107 

7. Corey Anderson +125 

8. Brett Johns -400

9. Darren Stewart -172 

10. Teemu Packalen +206 

11. Brad Pickett -137 

12. Brad Scott +130 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

13. Reza Madadi +475 

1. Corey Anderson +125 

2. Teemu Packalen +206 

3. Brad Scott +130 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Makwan Amirkhani -107 

5. Reza Madadi +475 

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Information

Prop Bets

Corey Anderson to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +450 

I actually said “get the fuck out” out loud when I saw this line. With Anderson’s wrestling and new found aggression and Manuwa’s questionable cardio and TDD- I can’t see Manuwa lasting a full 5-rounds on his back getting hammered. If/when he gets tired, Anderson will clamp down on him in half guard and feed him elbows and punches until the referee pulls him off. I love this play.

Gunnar Nelson to Win by Submission +190 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Nelson has won 11 times by submission in 15 fights. Jouban hasn’t really been tested on the mat, but Gunnar will change that. Look for Gunnar to either catch him during an exchange and drop him leading to a tap or simply land a takedown for a finish. At plus money, Gunnar by sub is a play worth investing in.

Joseph Duffy/Reza Madadi 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Check the Betting Scenario Section.

Darren Stewart/Francimar Barroso 

Check the Betting Scenario Section.

Tim Johnson to Win by Decision +200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Omielanczuk is durable but flawed. His TDD, when pressed, is pretty poor, and Johnson will exploit it. I expect to see Johnson grind him into the cage as well when he isn’t on top. Johnson is 1-2 in fights that go the distance, but his style is a perfect fit to grind Omielanczuk over for a full 15-minutes.

Marc Diakiese/Teemu Packalen Total Rounds Under 1.5 +185 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Both guys can finish and can finish quickly. For Diakiese to hit the Under it will be with his hands, either catching Temmu early or finishing him if he fades late in round 1 early in round 2. For Packalen, it will be all about the submission game. Take Diakiese down or counter his TDA and then start looking for a sub, most likely an RNC finish. Take the under.

 

Vicente Luque Win Inside the Distance +227 

Both the sub and knockout props were tempting, but I want to keep all of Luque’s skills working for me. I would lean towards the submission prop, as Luque seems to be able to recognize and exploit the vulnerabilities of an opponent. But, the manner in which Edwards seems to allow his opponents to dictate the pace on the feet will open him up to getting cracked by Luque. Vicente continues his winning ways and extends his win to finish ratio to a perfect 5:5.

 

Brad Scott/Scott Askham

Check the Betting Scenario Section.

Lina Lansberg/Lucie Pudilova

Check the Betting Scenario Section.