UFC TUF Nations: Bisping vs Kennedy- Post Fight Review + the Bet Pack

 mARTIN pEDERSEN

Mitch Gagnon defeated Tim Gorman by unanimous decision 30-27 on all card.

The event kicked off with an incredibly fast paced & exciting bout. Gorman proved to be tough & had much better submission defense than anyone thought but in the end Gagnon’s takedown defense & speed proved to be too much as he was always 1 step ahead of Gorman. Gagnon basically picked Gorman apart on the feet & on the mat but Gorman showed immense heart by never giving up & really giving every he had.

Richard Walsh defeated Chris Indich by unanimous decision 30-27 on all cards.

This fight was a miss match from the very beginning. I felt that Inidich would have the speed & technical advantage to go along with his toughness but Walsh put a beating on him from beginning to end. I wanted the ref to end the fight in the 2nd round because Indich became nothing more than a punching bag. Hopefully Indich will do better when he drops down to his natural weight class of 155 but I doubt it’ll be in the UFC. I will definitely be interested to see how Walsh will fair against fighters already in the UFC.

Nordine Taleb defeated Vik Grujic by unanimous decision 30-27 on all cards.

This was another lospided fight & really wasn’t all that entertaining. Nordine was better in nearly every aspect & Grujic had absolutely no answer for him. I am wondering if the UFC keeps Vik around for another bout or 2 when they head to Australia because that’s the only way I see him or Indich getting another fight for the company. As for Nordine, I want to see him fight some better competition before I pass judgement but he did easily win this fight.

Mark Bocek defeated Mike De La Torre by split decision 29-28, 28-29, & 30-27.

First of all, Torre proved that he is much better than the (+450) line suggested & he may have a nice career in the octagon. And second, the judge that had it 30-27 Bocek needs to be drug tested because Torre won the 2 round & both men had their moments in all 3 rounds. This was a really good back & forth battle with both men giving it their all but Bocek did just enough to win the final round & get his hand raised.

George Roop defeated Dustin Kimura by unanimous decision 29-28, 30-27, & 29-26.

I do think this fight was closer than the judges suggested but Roop was the right winner. Kimura definitely had issues getting inside on Roop & when he did, he found himself with his back on the mat. Roop maintained top control & clearly won the fight. Neither man was too impressive but Roop played it fairly safe & did just enough to win the rounds.

Ryan Jimmo defeated Sean O’Connell by 1st round TKO.

This fight didn’t last long at all. O’Connell looked to actually hurt Jimmo a little bit in the beginning but then it was all Jimmo as he basically ran over O’Connell & picked up the easy TKO victory. Very impressive but he needs a better opponent.

Sarah Kaufman defeated Leslie Smith by unanimous decision 30-27 on all cards.

Kaufman definitely learned her less from their first fight as she just picked Smith apart in every area. This fight was never in jeopardy for Kaufman as she picked up a much needed easy victory. Hopefully next time she gets a better opponent that doesn’t have to pull out due to injury. As for Smith, I don’t think she’s UFC caliber but she will probably get 1 more fight since Dana gives favors to people that step up on very short notice.

KJ Noons deeated Sam Stout by 1st round TKO.

I hope you didn’t blink for this one! Noons dropped Stout with a thunderous right hand & followed it up with a hard left to finish the fight in 30 seconds. WOW!! I definitely think Noons gets a better fight next time around but I doubt that he can repeat anything close to that performance. 

Dustin Poirier defeated Akira Corassani by 2nd round TKO.

Poirier started another fight pretty slow & got hurt because of it but he rallied in the last half of the first round to more than likely steal the round. Turns out, he didn’t need the scorecards because he came out in round 2 with bad intentions & dropped Corassani with a huge uppercut before finishing him off with some heavy shots.

Chad Laprise defeated Olivier Aubin-Mercier by unanimous decision 30-27 on all cards.

This fight definitely shocked me as Laprise was basically in control of the entire fight & really neutralized the wrestling of Mercier. Mercier had a few moments but more than anything proved that he is still raw & has a ton to improve on. Laprise definitely picked his spots to show his skills & outpoint Mercier. I can’t wait to see what both of these men do in their UFC careers.

Elias Theodorou defeated Sheldon Westcott by 3rd round TKO.

This was an absolutely mauling! Westcott is a very talented fighter but he is a true welterweight & it definitely showed against Elias. Elias was just too big & strong for Westcott to really get anything going. Finally after watching Elias dominate the 1st 2 rounds, the ref had seen enough & called an end to the contect. Westcott is very tough  but Elias is looking more & more like a beast everytime I see him. I hope they give Elias someone decent for his next bout.

Patrick Cote defeated Kyle Noke by unanimous decision 30-27, 29-28, & 29-28.

I don’t know how any judge could say that Cote won that first round but he definitely won the final 2. It was a fairly close back & forth battle but Noke seemed a little too hesitant to me & it showed. This was a very big win for Cote & hopefully he can build off of it.

Tim Kennedy defeated Miachael Bisping by unanimous decision 50-45, 49-46, & 49-46.

I personally gave the 2nd round to Bisping but other than that, it was all Kennedy. I don’t know if it was his eye or his opponent but Bisping definitely seemed off. Kennedy was consistently one step ahead of Bisbing nearly the entire fight & did enough to dominate the score cards. Bisping proved that he still has a chin but now I have to question what’s left for him. As for Kennedy, he needs to fight a big name. I would love to see him fight Rockhold or Jacare again. Or even giving him Vitor outside of Brazil would be fascinating.

UFC TUF Nations

Parlay Breakdowns

Big Money Bettor, Budget: $500

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Michael Bisping Wins by Decision $2.30
Selection 2: Mitch Gagnon/ Tim Gorman Total Rounds 1.5 $2.00
Selection 3: Sam Stout $1.81
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Price: $8.33 x Bet: $100
Payout: $833
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: George Roop $1.78
Selection 2: Olivier Aubin-Mercier $1.92
Selection 3: Sheldon Wescott $2.11
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Price: $7.22 x Bet: $100
Payout: $722
 
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Parlay #3
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Selection 1: Kyle Noke $2.0o
Selection 2: Chad Laprise/ Olivier Aubin-Mercier Total Rounds Under $2.00
Selection 3: Sam Stout $1.81
Selection 4: Sarah Kaufman $1.40
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Price: $10.14 x Bet: $100
Payout: $1014
 
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Parlay #4
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Selection 1: Leslie Smith/ Sarah Kaufman Total Rounds Under 2.5 $3.25
Selection 2: Michael Bisping $1.58
Selection 3: Dustin Kimura/ George Roop Total Rounds Over 2.5 $2.00
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Price: $10.27 x Bet: $100
Payout: $1027
 
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Parlay #5
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Selection 1: Mitch Gagnon/ Tim Gorman Total Rounds 1.5 $2.00
Selection 2: George Roop $1.78
Selection 3: Kyle Noke $2.0o
Selection 4: Akira Corassani/ Dustin Poirier Total Rounds Under 2.5 $1.57
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Price: $11.18 x Bet: $100
Payout: $1118
 

Recreational Bettor, Budget: $200

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Mitch Gagnon/ Tim Gorman Total Rounds 1.5 $2.00
Selection 2: Olivier Aubin-Mercier $1.92
Selection 3: Sheldon Wescott $2.11
Selection 4: Michael Bisping Wins by Decision $2.30
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Price: $18.64 x Bet: $50
Payout: $932
 
Parlay #2
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Selection 1: George Roop $1.78
Selection 2: Kyle Noke $2.0o
Selection 3: Sam Stout $1.81
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Price: $6.45 x Bet: $100
Payout: $645
 
Parlay #3
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Selection 1: Akira Corassani/ Dustin Poirier Total Rounds Under 2.5 $1.57
Selection 2: Michael Bisping $1.58
Selection 3: Chad Laprise/ Olivier Aubin-Mercier Total Rounds Under $2.00
Selection 4: Kyle Noke/ Patrick Cote Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.71
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Price: $8.49 x Bet: $50
Payout: $424.50

For Fun Bettor, Budget: $50

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Mitch Gagnon/ Tim Gorman Total Rounds 1.5 $2.00
Selection 2: Olivier Aubin-Mercier $1.92
Selection 3: George Roop $1.78
Selection 4: Akira Corassani/ Dustin Poirier Total Rounds Under 2.5 $1.57
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Price: $10.74 x Bet: $25
Payout: $268.50
 

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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Michael Bisping Wins by Decision $2.30
Selection 2: Sheldon Wescott $2.11
Selection 3: Kyle Noke $2.0o
Selection 4: Sam Stout $1.81
===================================================
Price: $17.57 x Bet: $25
Payout: $439.25
 
 

Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns

Mitch Gagnon $1.36 vs Tim Gorman $3.22

My pick here is flying in the face of the EPU, but unless Timmy has done some major off screen development, Gagnon seems like a mismatch. Mitch has hammered his way through 2 pretty solid opponents, and nearly took out a solid vet in Caraway. My concern is Gagnon gassing, but I think he gets it done before that plays a role. Gagnon simply does what Gorman does, only better and has been doing it now at a higher level. He could be use to add a little bit to your parlay, but I would rather look at a prop bet on the under.

Chris Indich $2.75 vs Richard Walsh $1.43

This is another EPU candidate and again I picked against the theory. I would think that of the opening 2 fights, this is the more likely candidate for an early upset. I like Walsh, I was impressed with what I saw on the show, but neither guy has fought at this level and I really didn’t have a tonne to base my prediction on. I would suggest that leaving this fight off of your bet card is most likely the best play. I think Walsh is the better fighter, but there are other more well-known options so I will take a pass with such limited return.

Nordine Taleb $1.39 vs Vik Grujic $3.02

With both men making their UFC debuts, this fight works into the EPU theory as well and I think that either Nordine is being a little overvalued here or Vik a little under. I won’t be touching this fight either, just too much of a risk for a minor financial gain.

Mark Bocek $1.22 vs Mike De La Torre $4.45

This is a fight I have no interest in betting straight up. Bocek has been on the shelf for a long time and De La Torre is debuting on incredibly short notice. Bocek should win, but if he does he pays next to nothing. The risk reward is simply not there. I will take a long look at a prop bet here, but straight up isn’t happening.

Dustin Kimura $2.01 vs George Roop $1.78

I think this line comes down to Roop simply being undervalued. His record isn’t that strong, but he has faced some pretty stiff competition and at 135 he seems to have found his stride despite his recent setback. Kimura is still developing, but I don’t think he posses that big of a threat to Georgie-boy. Roop usually has trouble with guys that throw heat, which Kimura really doesn’t. Hioki was able to put Roop on his back, but it wasn’t without difficulty and I don’t see Kimura’s wrestling being at this level yet. What that equates to is Roop either outworking him or possibly landing something and putting him away like he did with Bowles. I think Roop is a solid bet for a 2-3 fighter parlay, you could take a shot with a single bet, but I think there are a couple other options there.

Ryan Jimmo $1.24 vs Sean O’Connell $4.41

I seem to be writing this a lot, but keep in mind we have a lot of debuting fighters (many on short notice)- I will be passing on this fight as well. O’Connell didn’t have a tonne of quality footage and while I don’t think Jimmo drops the ball here, why risk losing everything to gain so little. Pass.

Leslie Smith $2.92 vs Sarah Kaufman $1.40

The first fight seemed closer then it was because of the knock down that Smith scored in round 2. If you take that out of the equation then Sarah won the fight start to finish. Value-wise, Kaufman is not jumping off the page here, but she could be serviceable on a bigger parlay to help bump the bottom line. I am looking at betting the under here as many rematches seem to end inside the distance. I believe it has a lot to do with fighters learning something about their opponent from the first fight, working on it in camp, and then executing/ exploiting it on fight day. The under could have some value.

KJ Noons $1.96 vs Sam Stout $1.81

This bout has potential to be incredibly close. Both guys are striking base so it will be harder to deem who isn’t executing, or at least harder when compared to a striker vs grappler pairing. Additionally, they have been involved in a lot of close fights, which could be a product of their lack of recent finishing skills and killer instinct. Stout, to me seems like he is trying to develop and adapt, which is a good thing. Noons was boxing based 5 years ago and he is boxing based now. Stout should be more diverse with his striking, using a kicking game and possibly landing a takedown or 2. I didn’t like the way Noons was waiting on G-Sots and he appeared to get frustrated by his movement, which is something Stout will be able to capitalize on. Stout pays well straight up which is the best way to play him. Tread carefully as I could really see this contest going either way. The Over is easily the safest bet, but will most likely pay poorly.

Akira Corassani $5.30 vs Dustin Poirier $1.18

The odds reflect how much of a mismatch this is based on where each man has been competing. Poirier has done nothing of late to warrant a drop in comp and Akira really hasn’t done enough to deserve this push despite a 3 fight winning streak. I won’t touch the straight up on Dustin, but the under has a little more value to it, but not much.

Chad Laprise $1.84 vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier $1.92

Colour me surprised with this line. I expected OAM to be both the fav and floating around the $1.45-$1.60 range. Laprise looked good on the show, but I think he will prove vulnerable to the grappling of his opponent. One thing to take note of from the show, Elias Theodorou stated that Olivier was able to dominate and submit even the Middleweights in practice. If that is the case, I would expect that OAM with a full camp will be able to put his grappling pedigree to work for the ‘W’. As much as I hate to say it, Laprise comes from a camp that has struggled with grapplers in the past and this is a prime situation where that theory will be tested. My heart says Laprise, but my head said Olivier. I like OAM in a solid straight up bet or doubling him up with another decent paying fav like Kaufman or Roop to push that bottom line.

Elias Theodorou $1.72 vs Sheldon Wescott $2.11

Similar to the other TUF final, I was a little surprised with this line. Elias really didn’t impress me that much on the show, while Wescott was a barn burner. He was all forward motion and hammered his way to a pair of first round wins. The big concern with Sheldon is what happens when his initial forward push doesn’t end the fight? Can he keep going at that pace? I think he can and I think we see an even better fighter now that his neck will be fully healed. Elias had some issues in his last fight when he couldn’t implement his grappling game and his early fight struggles leads me to believe he will have trouble here as well. I am looking at a single bet on Wescott, I might consider him as an option to double up with another fighter but I think the straight up bet is the way to go.

Kyle Noke $2.0o vs Patrick Cote $1.83

I think this fight has the potential to be a close one and the line reflects that. I have seen both guys as the favourite and that isn’t shocking either. Noke hasn’t fought in a while which is a concern, but for me Cote hasn’t look that good of late and could have easily lost his bout versus Voelker. What it comes down to is that I feel Noke will have a slightly higher output and land a few takedowns that will help him take the fight home. I think Cote should be part of a 2-3 fight parlay. Without any huge favourites on this card I am starting to rethink my approach to betting this event and may reconsider making single bets in favour of 2, 3, and maybe even 4 bet cards.

Michael Bisping $1.58 vs Tim Kennedy $2.65

There is a very good argument against Bisping for this fight, but I am simply not sold on Kennedy. His 2 UFC wins were against 1 and done Roger Gracie and short notice Rafael Natal. In fact, I felt Natal was getting the better of Kennedy right up until the knockout. Kennedy was waiting on Raf and letting him get off first which is a style that Bisping will eat alive. If Kennedy can land a big shot he could stop Bisping, but that could be easier said then done. Bisping’s cardio, technique, and volume will be too much for Timmy, especially when he increases his pace later in the bout. I like Bisping as part of a parlay, but don’t go all in on ‘the Count’, as I would like to see him get this fight out of the way after such a long layoff.


Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1. Dustin Poirier $1.18

2. Mitch Gagnon $1.36

3. Ryan Jimmo $1.24

4. Sarah Kaufman $1.40

5. Michael Bisping $1.58

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6. Mark Bocek $1.22

7. George Roop $1.78

8. Olivier Aubin-Mercier $1.92

9. Sheldon Wescott $2.11

10. Richard Walsh $1.43

11. Nordine Taleb $1.39

12. Kyle Noke $2.0o

13. Sam Stout $1.81


Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. Michael Bisping Wins by Decision $2.30 Its a 5 round fight, which gives lots of time for the finish to materialize, but Kennedy is double tough and that should carry this bout the distance.
2. Olivier Aubin-Mercier $1.92 He only has 4 pro fights, but his grappling has turned some serious heads.
3. Sheldon Wescott $2.11 He looked darn good on the show and has a tonne of potential, especially if he was physically inhibited by his neck injury.
4. Mitch Gagnon/ Tim Gorman Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.00 Gagnon is a finishing machine and all indications are that Gorman is in over his head.
5. Kyle Noke $2.00 Noke hasn’t fought in a while but Cote really hasn’t done that much to earn this spot as a favourite.

The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

  • Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
  • I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.

Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. Chris Indich $2.75 EPU in play here- Walsh looked strong on the show, but he is too heavy of a favourite for what he has done so far in his short career.
2. Vik Grujic $3.02 Vik is another TUF Aussie that showed promise and could surprise some people with his debut performance. There will be at least one upset involving a TUF fighter.
3.
4.
5.

The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.

Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.

Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.

The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.

There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.


Prop Bets-

Mitch Gagnon/ Tim Gorman Total Rounds 1.5 $2.00- Gagnon is a finishing machine and has won almost all of his fights inside the first round. Unless Gorman is better then he has shown, Gagnon should be able to finish him inside the first round like he has his last 2 opponents.

Mark Bocek/ Mike De La Torre Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.40- This is a bit of a risk because Bocek may focus more on position over submission in an attempt to get his grove back and he only has 7.5 minutes to end the fight. I still think he has a good chance to end it early with De La Torre’s questionable defensive grappling and the is risk there, but so is the profit.

Dustin Kimura/ George Roop Total Rounds Over 2.5 $2.00- There is potential on both sides for this fight to end early, but I think Roop simply outworks Kimura and takes the decision and the over.

Leslie Smith/ Sarah Kaufman Total Rounds Under 2.5 $3.25- This play is predicated on 2 scenarios- Kaufman has serious stopping power and has the numbers to back it up. Secondly, we routinely see fights that were entertaining back and forths ending quickly in their rematch.

KJ Noons /Sam Stout Total Rounds Under 2.5 $1.37- Not a lot of value here so this pick should probably rank at the bottom of your need to play list. Either way the likelihood is extremely high that this one hits.

Akira Corassani/ Dustin Poirier Total Rounds Under 2.5 $1.57- I think that there is an incredibly high likelihood that this bout ends early and the price and total rounds is a gift. Take it and run.

Chad Laprise/ Olivier Aubin-Mercier Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.00- Both guys have finishing skills-OAM by sub and Laprise with his hands. I think one way or another this bout raps before the final bell as both guys have a track record for quick finishes. Play the Under.

Kyle Noke/ Patrick Cote Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.71- While Cote has the ability to end this fight early and so does Noke I think we see a combination of measured striking and wrestling on Noke’s part helps this fight see the final bell. Cote really hasn’t looked like the killer of old that gain him his heavy handed reputation.

Michael Bisping Wins by Decision $2.30- A late stoppage could be in the cards, but Kennedy is very tough and I expect he will be able hold on. If Bisping is in vintage form he gets stronger as the fight goes and earns the judge’s nod.