UFC on FX 8: Belfort vs. Rockhold Results, Review, & Bet Pack

Josh Harper

The Brazilian crowd was pumping for UFC on FX 8 and it must have worked as the majority of Brazilian vs. the world matchups were won by Brazilians. There were several great finishes, but submission of the night went to Ronaldo Souza, knockout of the night went to Vitor Belfort and fight of the night went to the opening bout between Lucas Martins and Jeremy Larsen.  $50,000 each was given to those fighters who put on such outstanding performances.

Facebook Prelims

155 lbs. – Lucas Martins (0-1 UFC) vs. Jeremy Larsen (0-1 UFC) – Martins via TKO

Larsen was able to land huge overhand rights throughout the fight and the shots were clearly hurting Martins, but it was Martins who landed the finishing punches during an exchange early in round 3.

125 lbs. – Jussier Formiga (0-1 UFC) vs. Chris Cariaso (4-2 UFC) – Formiga via U. decision

Cariaso didn’t have an answer for the takedowns and grappling of Formiga as he spent almost the entire fight on his back and lost a unanimous decision.

125 lbs. – John Lineker (1-1 UFC) vs. Azamat Gashimov (0-1 UFC) – Lineker via TKO

Lineker was in control the entire fight with his striking and takedowns, but Gashimov showed heart by fighting back hard. Lineker finished Gashimov with a kick and punches to the body early in round 2.

Fuel TV Prelims

205 lbs. – Fabio Maldonado (1-3 UFC) vs. Roger Hollett (0-1 UFC) – Maldonado via U. decision

Hollet wasn’t able to get off his boxing against Maldonado and focused more on clinch control against the cage. It didn’t pay off as Maldonado defended well and still landed solid punches from everywhere.

135 lbs. – Yuri Alcantara (2-1-1 UFC) vs. Iliarde Santos (0-0 UFC) – Alcantara via TKO

Alcantara walked down Santos with hard strikes until he eventually connected on his chin with a straight left hand and finished him off the ground with more punches for a first round TKO.

170 lbs. – Paulo Thiago (4-5 UFC) vs. Michel Prazeres (0-0 UFC) – Thiago via U. decision

Prazeres came out strong by showing his grappling and kicking skills, but Thiago made sure he got his takedowns and stayed in top control for the next 2 rounds to win a unanimous decision.

155 lbs. – Gleison Tibau (11-7 UFC) vs. John Cholish (1-1 UFC) – Tibau via submission

Both fighters exchanged strikes early, but Tibau eventually took Cholish down and grinded him out until Cholish left his neck open and Tibau snatched it up for the guillotine choke submission in round 2.

155 lbs. – Francisco Trinaldo (2-1 UFC) vs. Mike Rio (1-0 UFC) – Trinaldo via submission

Trinaldo landed good punches early, but left himself open and got taken down. Rio didn’t do much after that as Trinaldo got back up, got his own takedown and worked for an arm-triangle choke in round 1.

145 lbs. – Hacran Dias (1-0 UFC) vs. Nik Lentz (7-2-1-1 UFC) – Lentz via U. decision

Dias did everything he could to sweep, submit or get back to his feet and strike, but it wasn’t enough as Lentz was able to overpower Dias on the ground and won a unanimous decision.

Main Card

185 lbs. – Rafael Natal (3-2-1 UFC) vs. Joao Zeferino (0-0 UFC) – Natal via U. decision

Zeferino did well in the first round with his striking, but faded in the later rounds as Natal was able to get takedowns and work from top control to win a decision.

155 lbs. – Rafael Dos Anjos (7-4 UFC) vs. Evan Dunham (7-3 UFC) – Dos Anjos via U. decision

Dunham did a great job of pushing the action, landing strikes and securing takedowns, but it still wasn’t enough to impress the judges as they gave Dos Anjos the win based on his very solid counter striking.

185 lbs. – Ronaldo Souza (0-0 UFC) vs. Chris Camozzi (6-2 UFC) – Souza via submission

Camozzi didn’t have an answer for the takedowns or grappling of Souza as he pretty much gave up his arm/neck and allowed Souza to lock in an arm triangle choke for a first round submission.

185 lbs. – Vitor Belfort (11-6 UFC) vs. Luke Rockhold (0-0 UFC) – Belfort via TKO

Belfort was very patient for the first couple of minutes and once he saw that Rockhold truly wasn’t on his level Belfort opened up with a spinning wheel kick to Rockholds face and finished him with strikes.

 


UFC on FX 8

*I have started to use some Props in my parlays, if your book doesn’t offer the prop or won’t allow them to be used in a parlay- use a pick from my confidence list.

Parlay Doubles

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1:
Selection 2:
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Price: $2.90
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1:
Selection 2: Vitor Belfort $2.13
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Price: $5.11
 
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Parlay #3
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Selection 1:
Selection 2:
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Price: $4.05
 
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Parlay #4
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Selection 1: Vitor Belfort $2.13
Selection 2:
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Price: $10.16

Parlay Triples

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Parlay #5
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Selection 1: Vitor Belfort $2.13
Selection 2:
Selection 3:
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Price: $6.17

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Parlay #6
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Selection 1: Gleison Tibau $1.43
Selection 2:
Selection 3: Paulo Thiago $1.57
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Price: $5.39

Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns

Paulo Thiago $1.57 vs

Prazeres is undefeated and has a lot of momentum while Thiago is suffering through the worst stretch of his career with only one win in 5 fights. That being said, Paulo has been facing significantly better competition then Prazeres, but things like confidence and momentum can be a big factor in a figther’s performance. My take on this fight is to include Thiago in a parlay, but nothing too extensive. He should be the better overall fighter and win in most scenarios, but it is hard to put a large investment into a fighter that has had such difficulty winning of late. Again consider him as part of a parlay because in the $1.50 range he has an alright return for a UFC vet against a newcomer, but don’t commit too much coin.

Lucas Martins $1.40 vs

In an effort to be more selective I have been putting more consideration into what fights to leave out and what fights to bet on. I am still a little bit on the fence here, but I am leaning towards not playing this fight. Larsen hasn’t fought in so long its hard to anticipate what we will see from him. Ring rust? New skills? Same old same old? It could be a mix of all of them. Martins looked out of place in his debut, but Larsen is a much more appropriate opponent at this stage of his career then Barboza was. With Martins hovering around the $1.40 mark I might consider using him in a parly, but if he drops any lower I will leave this fight off the bet cards all together.

Jussier Formiga $1.61 vs

Cariaso cost me in his last fight getting submitted after arguably winning the opening two rounds. Formiga was world ranked #1 at Flyweight before the UFC put their own division together. He didn’t have a lot to offer John Dodson in his debut, but Dodson is a tough guy that just finished pushing the champ to his limit. If Cariaso can keep this fight stand this is his fight to win, but his kick heavy game is a conern. He needs to pick his spots and not get reckless when attacking. I really like his experience to play a factor and he knows if he can negate the grappling of Jussier this is his fight to win. I would advocate an average sized singl bet of Mr. Kamikaze. His value on some sites is rising which makes him even more appealing. He could also be worked into parlays along side Vitor or Gashimov to make things even more interesting.

John Lineker $1.59 vs

My trip through the preliminary upset picks continues on with Gashimov over Linker. Lineker is super entertaining and can pack one heck punch, but his ground work is a little bit questionable. He was going to war with Gaudinot until the fight hit the ground and he was eventually put to sleep. Gashimov is a Sambo guy which is a dangerous grappling style to have and to have to fend off. If the cut goes well for the Russian the combination of his size and skill will give Lineker all he can handle. I think the odds are a bit off here based on the lack of information regarding Gashimov. If you check out the footage of the guy that is available you will see he is a very capable ground fighter with good top control and smooth transitions. I suggested one of your larger single bets for Gashimov along with including him in a parlay or two. Gashimov/ Belfort would be an interesting combo. For Lineker his grappling defence raises too many questions for me to play him as the favourite.

Fabio Maldonado $1.40 vs

This is another one of those fights where I intend to avoid almost entirely. Maldonado is the better striker which should carry the day but his fight IQ scares me. Here is a guy that on more then one occassions has invited his opponents to hit him. He waves them on as if he is partaking in some sort of tough mad competition instead of an MMA fight. His striking output is high, but so to is his opponent’s landing numbers which begs the questions- why are you asking for more? Hollett did’t impress in his debut, but stylistically Hamill’s wrestling was major factor that he had to be careful of. Hollett is a threat on the ground and if Fabio can’t keep this fight vertical he is going to be in trouble. There are so many what ifs and buts for this fight that my advice for is to just sit it out and move on to the next. It could be entertaining, but it could also be damaging to your betting health.

Yuri Alcantara $1.20 vs

I am already being questioned on this fight so lets get to it. Santos is a big dog no doubting that and my original lean on this fight was to Alcantara but the more and more I looked at Santos I felt he has the skills to steal a victory here. He is a decent grappler and that is what has given Yuri trouble in the past. He did look like a monster in his 135 debut, but that was against a natural Flyweight. Alcantara has the tools to win this fight, he is nasty on the ground and a very solid striker. If he can defend the takedowns or attack off his back effectively then Santos will be in trouble, but I think that Santos has the ability to overcome it. For betting purposes you can get a pretty good return on Iliarde with just an average sized single bet. If he were to win I think he would become my biggest upset passing Vaughan Lee over Kid. Another option would be to link Santos up with either Gashimov or Belfort, bet a little less again and still rake in the return on a win (if both cash). For Alcantara I would like to see him fight a full fight at 135 before I back him as this heavy of a favourite.

Gleison Tibau $1.43 vs

This fight comes down to Tibau’s weight cut. If it goes well he wins, if not it will be much closer and Cholish could out hustle him for the victory. Tibau is a veteran and an expert at cutting weight. He has already said he tried to get down from too high in too short a time for the Dunham fight and that is what cost him. He has had more good cuts then bad and he should be able to make the needed adjustments. Cholish is a solid fighter but I don’t see any area where he can get the better of a non-drained Tibau. My suggestion here is to include Tibau on a parlay. He doesn’t offer a lot on his own but will still help boost yer payout while coming away with the W.

Francisco Trinaldo $1.33 vs

Rio didn’t impress me that much in his debut. He struggled on the feet against Cofer and was just strong enough on the mat to pull out a late submission win after arguably dropping the opening two rounds. Trinaldo is a handful for any fighter based on raw physical power and then add in a pretty solid skillset and I think Rio is going to struggle to get the job done here. If Rio can muster up some takedowns with consistency that is his best bet, but Trinaldo has decent TDD and does a nice job of punishing his opponent on the shot attempt. The big key to this fight for Francisco is going to be his left hand. He has a brutally powerful left and Rio was continually getting tagged by Cofer’s left in their fight. Rio was able to take that shot over and over again but Trinaldo’s power is something you don’t want to trifle with. The only drawback to this fight is the lack of value that Trinaldo has. I think he wins this fight fairly handily, but he should serve as nothing more then a compliment to your parlay betting. You could also consider adding him in with an underdog pick to bump up the return, but a single bet doesn’t make a lot of sense. For Rio, I would like to see him compete both at this level and with more regularity before I start backing him.

Hacran Dias $1.95 vs

I think this is one of the best bets of the night. Lentz has looked like a beast so far at 145 and although Dias is coming off a big win, he has been out of action for quite a while now and facing a top level American wrestler for the first time can be a nightmare. Lentz was putting together a solid run at 155 and I think he has the capabilities of tasting top 5 status at 145, but this will be a huge test nonetheless. I think Lentz would work as one of if not your biggest single bet for the night. The only one I am considering above him for value is Belfort and that is because he pays better. Give Lentz a solid look for a big bet and then consider him as a cornerstone for your parlays. Of course don’t let him be on every bet card, but I think he adds a lot of value to your card. For Dias he looked good in his debut but it was against a man now fighting at 135 and he hasn’t fought in a long time. The Brazilian crowd can be a tough thing for a fighter, but I think Lentz should be able to work through that considering he is coming off a win over Diego Nunes in Brazil.

Joao Zeferino $3.40 vs

I think I am going to leave this fight off the bet cards. Natal is a skilled fighter and we have lots of info on him, but Zeferino is a wild card. We have limited knowledge on this guy and with Natal paying so poorly it makes next to no sense to risk your money with limited knowledge for such a small return. I will be staying away.

Evan Dunham $2.35 vs

These odds are moving and they are moving in the right direction! I like RDA in this fight. He is the more refined striker and is ground game is equal to or better then Dunham’s. RDA is a fighter on the rise in the division and should be able to out strike Dunham in a similar fashion to what TJ Grant did. For the most part the grappling of both fighters should be nullified by the other’s superior TDD, but I still give RDA the edge. For betting this fight RDA, like Lentz above has some decent value. I think a parlay between Lentz and dos Anjos makes a lot of sense. A single belt on him also works, but because he is only paying in the low $1.60 range on most site, doubling him up with Lentz is probably the way to go. I also like the over here as I don’t really see either man putting the other away, but I will talk about that more in the props section.

Ronaldo Souza $1.20 vs

Betting this fight straight up makes no sense. Souza pays too poorly and I think that while Camozzi pays well, he doesn’t have the tools to take the win here. I give Camozzi 100% credit for stepping up to take this fight on short notice, but honestly Jacare is the type of guy that you really need a full training camp to prepare for. The ideal gameplan to beat Souza is to use a range based striking attack, moving in and out with limit close distance interaction and solid takedown defence to fall back on. Costa Philippou has a style similar to that, while Chris is more focussed on grinding out wins with his size. He showed in the Ring fight that speed can be an issue for him and I expect as long as this fight is on the feet, Souza will have that edge. The bet to make here is Souza by submission, to avoid repeating myself I will touch upon this in the props section.

Vitor Belfort $2.13 vs Luke Rockhold $1.79

Rockhold is getting a lot of credit for being the Strikeforce champion, but he has never faced someone like Vitor before. His biggest wins have come over Jacare and Tim Kennedy, who are both grappling based fighters. Many people are keying on the leg kicks of Rockhold as being a path to a win, but I think that Belfort will use his boxing to get inside of the kicking range and force Rockhold to trade with him in close. With Belfort’s power and superior set of hands this is going to be a pretty rough scenario for the SF champ. If the fight goes to the ground Belfort is much more dangerous then Rockhold, but Rockhold doesn’t need to attack on the mat just neutralize. The key to Rockhold winning this fight is to survive the first 2 rounds and wait for Belfort’s cardio to go. That could be easier said then done as that was Bisping’s game too and we all know how that turned out. This fight will determine one of two things- Is Rockhold a legit title threat? OR Is Belfort worthy of another shot at the strap? I think it is the latter and I am willing to bet is as such. Belfort is ranging right now between $1.87 and $2.20 depending on what site and what time you are looking at. I think at anything in that range or even slightly less he is worth one of your larger bets for the card. You could also make a solid pay day working him in with any number of the previously mentioned plays like dos Anjos, Lentz, Gashimov, or Chris Cariaso. If your book allows it Belfort and Souza by Submission also works. For Rockhold I need to see more. I wasn’t that impressed with him vs Kennedy and Kennedy really didn’t look all that good either. Against Jacare he got tagged a number of times and he can’t afford that against a much more talented and dangerous striker like Belfort. If he is to win this fight he needs to bring arguably his best all around performance.


Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1. Ronaldo Souza $1.20

2. Gleison Tibau $1.43

3.

4. Francisco Trinaldo $1.33

5.

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6. Vitor Belfort $2.13

7.

8.

9.

10. Paulo Thiago $1.57

11. Lucas Martins $1.40

12. Fabio Maldonado

13.

-Purchase the $5 Bet Pack to get my rankings for the entire event + my non-predicted Top 5 Value Plays


Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. Vitor Belfort $2.13 I really like this fight for Belfort when he is paying this well. Rockhold is untested at this level and shouldn’t be that big of a favourite.
2. $1.80 He is the betting fav, but he still has a lot to offer value-wise. Look for Lentz to continue his success and do it paying out at a pretty good clip.
3. $2.40 This guy is flying under the radar. If he had fought at 125 already he would probably rank higher on my list, but then again he probably wouldn’t be such a big dog. Lots of potential here.
4. $2.25 Solid veteran fighter with big time experience against a guy who was on top of the heap before the UFC got into the 125 pound business. That will show up when Cariaso steals a win.
5. $4.77 He has a huge opponent to overcome, but he has just as big a price on his head. I think he has a legit shot at pulling this one out and he is worth the bet.

The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

  • Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
  • I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.

Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. $2.92 It is hard to trust Fabio as a favourite and Hollett could have the tools to exploit his weakness on the ground. If you plan to bet this fight the price on the Canadian might be your best play.
2. $2.40 Thiago is struggling and while his losses have come mostly against top ranked guys, Prazeres could be the final nail in his coffin. The higher you can buy him at the better.
3. $2.90 I wasn’t impressed with what I saw out of Larsen, but with such a long time away we could see a drastic improvement of his skills. He might be the play here at this price.
4. No Play
5. No Play

The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.


Prop Bets-

Chris Cariaso/ Jussier Formiga Total Rounds Over 2.5Cariaso is a decision machine and this play is predicated on him winning this fight as I think he will. If this bout ends early it will most likely be by a submission from Formiga and while it could happen I think Cariaso winning is more likely. Play the Over.

John Lineker/ Azamat Gashimov Total Rounds Under 2.5- Either Lineker wins this bout by knockout or Gashimov by submission and with Flyweights having a rep for not finishing fights we could see the odds here have a little added value. Play the Under.

Nik Lentz/ Hacran Dias Total Rounds Over 2.5 Lentz has earned a reputation for winning by decision and while he did get a stoppage victory in his debut, Dias will be a tough guy to put away. If Dias turns out to be the better man Lentz is also a very durable fighter and uber tough to finish. Play the Over.

Ronaldo Souza to Win by Submission $1.71- Playing Jacare straight up doesn’t offer much, but if you can take him to win this fight by submission at anything over $1.55 you’ve got a decent play worth making.

Rafael dos Anjos/ Evan Dunham Total Rounds Over 2.5 I don’t see either man finishing this fight and they have combined for 19 total decision wins. I like this play and it makes sense that the other play posted below works too.

Rafael dos Anjos to Win by Decision $2.13- Dunham is super tough and has only been finished once. Additionally, RDA has gone the distance 6 times in his career. With the amount of damage that RDA will pile up he will win a decision, but not get the finish.

Vitor Belfort to Win by KO/TKO/DQ $2.80- Lot’s of value here. I don’t see Vitor taking this by decision with his cardio issues, but the knockout is a far greater possibility, much better then the $2.80 would indicate.