UFC on FX 5: Browne vs Bigfoot Post Fight Results & Bet Pack
UFC on FX 5: Browne vs Bigfoot wasn’t without controversy and disappointment, but the fighters that actually step into the cage tonight did not disappoint. Dennis Hallman’s failure to make weight and subsequent firing, followed by Jeremy Stephen’s arrest which resulted in a pair of Lightweight bout beings scrapped were a pair of bumps in road of an otherwise entertaining evening of fights.
I will get into my fight by fight breakdown in a moment, but quickly looking at my predictions and bet pack results it was a fantastic night. I went 8-2-0 including the main event upset win by Antonio Silva (yes Browne hurt his knee, I will address that shortly) and continue my solid run of profit producing Bet packs winning 5 parlays including a 4 fight parlay and a monster 7 fight parlay, a perfect 5 for 5 on my Confidence list, 3 of 4 value plays hitting with Yves Edwards not fighting and the only incorrect pick being a split decision, and 3 of 5 on the prop bets including a whole pile of winning information in my fight by fight betting breakdowns. The entire bet pack can be viewed below and more importantly for only $10 the bet packs can be seen before the event which can result in cash in your pocket. On a side note I would like to thank all of my customers who have purchased the bet packs, especially over the last 3 events where there have been a record number of sales. Don’t miss out on UFC 153′s bet pack!
Ok that is enough about the prediction, let’s get to the actual fights.
-Darren Uyenoyama’s submission of Phil Harris was a solid win and should set him up for a fight his original opponent Louis Gaudinot.
- Diego Nunes survived an early series of submission to yet again go to the judges’ scorecards. Even though he is a decision machine he and Palaswzeski put on an exciting show. Nunes vs Swanson would be an entertaining bout.
- Volkman finally gets a stoppage victory! Roller will most likely get cut.
- Mike Pierce was the first of two fighters to get their backside handed to them in the first round only to survive and score an impressive knockout. Pierce’s performance wasn’t great but that knockout will gain him some much need momentum.
- Michael Johnson followed Pierce up with a similar performance, surviving an early knock down and a sidechoke (arm triangle) that looked good for a bit. Johnson should get a step up in competition- Michael Johnson vs TJ Grant would be a solid scrap.
- John Dodson showed us that 125ers do have power and his title fight with Mighty Mouse will be one of the fastest sporting competitions not on ice.
- Antonio Silva show what he is capable of and despite Browne’s bum knee, Silva looked good and capitalized. Silva vs Cheick Kongo would be an interesting fight and give Bigfoot a chance to pick up another win to further build his momentum. Some people are calling for Struve vs Silva which would be a pretty decent scrap but I would like to see both guys continue on their separate paths for a little longer before potentially crossing over.
- the Prater/ LeVesseur split decision was a little off I think and I am not just saying this because I picked Prater and it cost me an even bigger payday then the one I took home. Prater attempted multiple subs which were probably the most successful either guy was offensively with both attempting and landing some strikes, but nothing huge. I think the issue here is that judge see a submission attempt that doesn’t end a fight as a failure which is not a good thing. Instead they should see a tight sub attempt, especially one that last for a drawn out period of time, as the equivalent to a knockdown or at least a significant strike that wobbles the guy that got hit. The sub might not finish the fight, but just like a big strike it certainly had an impact and should be rewarded. I saw it 29-28 Prater.
- Aaron Simpson and Danny Castillo both had great starts and bad finishes to their fights; the key in both situations was their inability to finish their opponent when they had the chance. Castillo was much closer and had the arm triangle locked up but allowed Johnson to survive and come back. Simpson looked good, but the fights are 15 minutes long not 5, or least they are 15 minutes long when you don’t get hit so hard your mouth piece tries to escape out the side of your face.
- I actually missed this fight it was so quick. I was watching the Braves/Cardinals Wildcard game (see the Ugly section) and didn’t change the channel back in time. I avoided using Neer on most of my bets and even though I felt confident in him winning I didn’t include him in my top 5 confidence picks because I felt there was a chance something like this could have happened. Good win for Edwards, biggest of his career, and this might be it for Neer in the UFC with back to back first round finishes. I hope not because he is entertaining- Simpson vs Neer works for me.
- the Dodson/ Formiga fight had a great finish but was a little slow, okay a lot slow. I appreciated the fact that Dodson was respecting the grappling skills of da Silva and therefore wasn’t interested in rushing in and making a mistake, unfortunately the average fan doesn’t and will continue to be luke warm towards the Flyweights as a result.
- It is too bad that Browne’s knee went out and a win is a win ( I took Silva by TKO) but it would feel much better that Bigfoot toppled an two legged Browne for the victory. Browne will be back when he heals and he is young- Browne vs Mike Russow or a rematch with Kongo sounds right.
- Dennis Hallman- everything about him screams ugly right now. From his purple banana hamock to his failure to make weight for the last two fights. I know he has a condition that impacts his ability to work out, but he should be fighting at a weight class he can make comfortably at his age, which is welterweight. He is probably done with the UFC for good, but with injuries and the need for late replacements a win or two could get him a call back in an emergency.
- Jeremy Stephens- I really wanted him to show up so the fight could go down. I took Yves and felt that the upset was there for the taking but it wasn’t to be. I don’t know enough about the situation to comment, hopefully this situation gets sorted and if it does move these guys to the 153 card, send Gonzaga to fight Cormier in Strikeforce and if it doesn’t get sorted Thiago Tavares (Hallman’s opponent) vs Yves Edwards at 153 would be fine as well. The ugliest part of this whole situation was Dana attempting to convince people that this fight was happening, if he didn’t know don’t say anything until you have the guy physically in the building and ready to go.
- The UFC needed to tell us if the above mentioned fight was a go or not. Don’t pretend like this isn’t happening and if they did and I missed it, than please someone tell me.
- Ellenberger/Hieron wasn’t a great fight, it was two guys bouncing around not willing to really attempt much of anything. Hieron did try a couple of big shots, but nothing landed. Ellenberger, as Kenny Florian kept saying, might have been pacing himself but someone needed to tell him it was a 3 round fight not a 5 rouned. Ellenberger vs Pierce sounds appropriate, Jake needs a couple of victories to return to the upper ranks and rebuild his confidence and if Pierce wins he deserves a push. Hieron vs Paulo Thiago.
UFC on FX 5: Browne vs Bigfoot was fantastic card full of exciting fights and unexpected turns. There is always going to be the odd let down when things aren’t scripted and that can’t be avoided and should be expected, but this was an enjoyable card. UFC 153 is less than a week away so make sure to check back in for my prediction and buy the bet pack while it’s hot hot hot!
UFC on FX 5
Parlay Doubles=================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: Mike Pierce 1.63 Selection 2: Carlo Prater 2.15 =================================================== Price: $3.50 =================================================== Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: Diego Nunes 1.57 Selection 2: Michael Johnson 1.71 =================================================== Price: $2.68
Parlay Triples=================================================== Parlay #3 =================================================== Selection 1: John Dodson 1.50 Selection 2: Yves Edwards 2.95- Void Selection 3: Jacob Volkmann 1.59 =================================================== Price: $7.06
========================================Parlay #4 =================================================== Selection 1: Antonio Silva 3.05 Selection 2: Diego Nunes 1.57 Selection 3: Michael Johnson 1.71 =================================================== Price: $8.50
Parlay Double-Doubles=================================================== Parlay #5 =================================================== Selection 1: Carlo Prater 2.15 Selection 2: Jacob Volkmann 1.59 Selection 3: Michael Johnson 1.71 Selection 4: Diego Nunes 1.57 =================================================== Price: $9.18 =================================================== Parlay #6 =================================================== Selection 1: Antonio Silva 3.05 Selection 2: Mike Pierce 1.63 Selection 3: Yves Edwards 2.95- Void Selection 4: Jacob Volkmann 1.59 =================================================== Price: $23.32
Big Parlay (I couldn’t come up with a name for this one)=================================================== Parlay #7 =================================================== Selection 1: Jake Ellenberger 1.31 Selection 2: Diego Nunes 1.57 Selection 3: Jacob Volkmann 1.59 Selection 4: John Dodson 1.50 Selection 5: Mike Pierce 1.63 Selection 6: Darren Uyenoyama 1.35 Selection 7: Michael Johnson 1.71 =================================================== Price: $18.46
A Puncher’s Chance=================================================== Parlay #8 =================================================== Selection 1: Michael Johnson 1.71 Selection 2: Mike Pierce 1.63 Selection 3: Jacob Volkmann 1.59 Selection 4: Yves Edwards 2.95- void Selection 5: Antonio Silva 3.05 Selection 6: Carlo Prater 2.15 Selection 7: Diego Nunes 1.57 =================================================== Price: $134.60
Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns
Aaron Simpson 2.30 vs Mike Pierce 1.63
First fight time- 1-4 over my last 4 shows predicting the first fight of the night and even though I picked Jason Young at UFC on Fuel TV 5 I suggested betting on Robbie Peralta based on my struggles with that first fight. For Simpson/Pierce I feel pretty confident in my pick and unless their is a major surprise Pierce should take this one. Simpson got the job done in his debut, but it was a performance that really didn’t inspire a lot of confidence that his move to 170 is going to lead to big things. Mike Pierce represents a big challenge fo Simpson. Everything that Simpson can do, Pierce will be able to do better. The style of fighting that Simpson employs- a grinding wrestling based battled along the cage, in the clinch and on the mat is exactly what Pierce thrives on. Simpson will need to throw something new and creative at Pierce in order to catch him off guard, but I don’t think he has that capability especially at this stage of his career. I do believe that Pierce will be better in all areas, but the deal will be sealed by Pierce’s superior conditioning. Pierce will win the first round and it may be close, but as the fight goes deeper and Simpson slows down I expect him to put a stamp on it. Pierce at $1.63 is a solid play, I really think he should be used on pretty much any parlay you are setting up and I would be confident in dropping a big number down on him by himself.
Marcus LeVesseur 1.69 vs Carlo Prater 2.15
LeVesseur came into MMA with high expectations based on his impressive undefeated Collegiate wrestling career. Unfortunately every time he matches up with next level competition he comes up short- Brian Cobb submission loss, Dakota Cochrane submission loss, and Cody McKenzie submission loss (note the theme). His biggest win came against TUF alumni Dane Sayers, but it was by no means a dominant performance. The manner in which he served up his neck to Cody McKenzie was mind boggling. It was pretty well established that McKenzie’s greatest and potentially only real threat is his custom guillotine and even if LeVesseur didn’t watch the reality show the most basic of research on Wikipedia would have told him to protect his kneck. Carlo Prater is easily the most talented grappler that LeVesseur has ever faced; he is a BJJ Black belt and has a tonne of experience to draw upon. LeVesseur’s greatest attribute, his wrestling, will lead him right into the heart of the fire. If LeVesseur can stun Prater on the feet and hurt him before going to the ground that would be the best scenario, but I think that there will be just too many opportunities for Prater to lock up a submission. I was quite happy when I saw Prater as the dog, I think he is a worthwhile bet by himself and as part of your parlays. For LeVesseur getting submitted by a grappler and then fighting a superior grapplers doesn’t exactly give me any reason to invest in him, win a fight in the UFC and then we will take another look.
Dennis Hallman 2.80 vs Thiago Tavares 1.45- CANCELLED
This bout had be puzzled for a bit and initially I wasn’t really sure where to put my chips. Hallman is a veteran with a tonne of experience and at 155lbs has the grappling skills to compete with almost anyone in the division. Tavares on the other hands is just as capable a grappler and has really been working to improve his striking. I was tempted by Hallman especially with the odds being set so heavy in favour of the Brazilian, but Dennis’s issues with conditioning are just too much to overlook. The disease he suffers from prevents his body from properly recovering after significant expenditures of energy, which makes doing any physical task difficult let alone fighting another human being. Even though Hallman has taken steps to cope with his situation it was still painfully obvious in the Ben Saunders fight that even though Hallman was setting the pace for the first 2 rounds he was still exhausted in round 3. Fighters can be tired, but Hallman looked like a strong breeze could have blow him over. Based on Hallman’s recent fights it is difficult to gauge if the conditioning issue still exist because his fights have all ended inside round one, but until he proves otherwise I am going to assume it is still there. Tavares is too skilled for Hallman to submit, especially quickly and I don’t see Hallman scoring a quick knockout as his career numbers indicate this is not his style. If Hallman can’t put him away early I feel that he will slow and Thiago will take over the fight earning a decision or late stoppage. Even if this doesn’t happen and Hallman’s cardio doesn’t fail Tavares is the better striker and the ground game could be a wash so I still like the Brazilian in a scenario devoid of an exhausted Hallman. Tavares at $1.45 is decent, he is a good addition to your parlay card, but Ilike to reserve my heavy single bets for fighters paying north of $1.55 or whom I have extreme confidence in. I do think that Tavares wins this fight, but his price is too low and Hallman is dangerous enough to prevent me from making a big money single bet.
Darren Uyenoyama 1.35 vs Phil Harris 3.32
This fight was originally expected to be Uyenoyama against Louis Gaudinot which would have been a nice clash of styles, but now you have a grappler against a better grappler. Uyenoyama looked fantastic at 135 against Kid Yamamoto (the highest paying upset that I have predicted so far, $4.61) and I think he can makes waves in a shallow division. Uyenoyama is just too good a grappler to get out worked by Phil Harris and unless Harris can catch him in a ‘flash’ submission he would be best served to keep this fight standing. Unfortunately for Harris I haven’t seen any indication that he will be able to keep the fight standing (taken down several times in the footage I have seen) or do damage if he can remain vertical. I feel that Uyenoyama is a solid play across the board on any parlay and even might be worth a decent single bet despite is low price. If you can bet him ASAP as I expect his value to drop closer to bell time.
Diego Nunes 1.57 vs Bart Palaszewski 2.54
This fight could be on almost any Main card UFC PPV that has been put together in recent memory as both fighters are well-rounded and entertaining. Nunes has been closer to the top of the division, but when given the opportunity to take that next step they have both come up short- Nunes dropping a decision to Kenny Florian and Palaszewski faltering against Hatsu Hioki. Nunes has gone to decision in each of his 9 WEC/UFC appearances and even though that isn’t the most exciting trend to see, he is still an entertaining figther. Palaszewski has a tonne of experience and although he doesn’t do anything real flashy he is effective. A lot of people are going to point at Palaszewski’s reach advantages as a big part of this fight, but I expect that Nunes’s use of kicks and speed will negate this. If Palaszewski can time Nunes and land a shot he does have the power to hurt him, but hitting him could be easier said then done. Head to head Nunes just offers more as a fighter, Dennis Siver a very good striker in his own right and his fight with Nunes was very close. At $1.57 Nunes is an excellent play for any parlay and he has value for a single bet as well. For Palaszewski he has the ability to compete in this fight and make it interesting, but the stars will have to align for him to land that one game changing shot so he needs to be above $3.00 before he is worth a look.
Michael Johnson 1.71 vs Danny Castillo 2.10
Of all the guys fighting out of the Blackzillian camp Michael Johnson has really impressed me with the strides he has made especially with his striking. At $1.71 he is one of the best bets on this card. Castillo is a tough scrappy fighter but he has limitations. If he can’t use his wrestling to score points against his opponent his ability to win the fight is greatly diminished. I am not saying that he can’t win a fight without his wrestling, but it is much harder for him to do so. In this case Johnson is the much better striker and deceptively fast. Against Tony Ferguson he was constantly winning the exchanges and off the top of my head I can only think of one scenario where Ferguson was able to land a big shot. Johnson’s speed and TDD will make it very tough for Castillo to get in and put him on his back, not impossible,but difficult. Castillo has won 6 of his last 7, and Johnson has had issues with grapplers (Castillo has 4 submission wins) so this is far from a guarantee, but I really like how Johnson matches up head to head with Castillo. I expect to see Johnson landing with regularity, exploiting his speed, 3″ reach advantage, 2″ height and simply put a more technically refined skill set while Castillo purses takedowns. I will be using Johnson on a high percentage of my parlays and will put one of my single biggest bets on him for this card.
Shane Roller 2.40 vs Jacob Volkmann 1.59
I am not going to sugarcoat this one… there is a good chance that this fight could be a little less then exciting. Both guys are grappling oriented fighters with NCAA Division I wrestling backgrounds. Roller has that one punch knockout power, ask Thiago Tavares, but that was one of those Seahawks/Packers hail mary situations (too bad it wasn’t actually a catch) that only happens once in a while. Roller has a decent top game as he showed against John Alessio, but when it comes down to it if his opponent cant put him on his back ala TJ Grant, he is in trouble. Jacob Volkman on the other hand thrives on taking guys down and smothering them on the ground which is 100% what I am expecting him to do here. Uncle Dana is going to be watching this fight intently and hoping that Volkman suffers his second consecutive loss so he can consider cutting him (I don’t think Volkman is making many friends with his outspoken nature and less then appealing style). Unfortunately for DW, he wont get his wish here as Volkman strength combined with Roller’s major weakness should equate to a typical Jacob Volkman style performance and subsequent victory. Volkman is set a decent number anywhere between $1.45 and $1.60 depending on the site. I suggest using him on your parlays and maybe even tossing down a single bet on him. A nice parlay of Volkman, Johnson, Pierce and Nunes has some decent potential. Shane Roller’s striking isn’t great and his vulnerability on the mat makes him a no play in this one at anything below $2.95.
Yves Edwards 2.95 vs Jeremy Stephens 1.41
This is the second biggest upset I am taking on this card and it was a difficult one to pick. When this fight was made the first image that came into my head was Edwards dropping to the ground in the Stout fight. I then coupled that image with the power punching style of Stephens and made my first base prediction- Stephens by KO. This is a potential outcome, but when I started breaking things down further more and more I began to see things in favour of Edwards. Stephens is a head hunter and it would appear that his opposition has started to figure this out. He throws bombs and hopes to connect and on occasion he does- early against Sam Stout and late against Marcus Davis. But when you actually break those fights down Stephens has major issues with fighters that use a more technically base striking style compared to his full steam ahead approach. Stephens looked like a broken fighter against Cerrone and I am by no means expecting something like that here, but the manner in which Cowboy picked him apart and avoid that one game changing shot was impressive and probably a nice blueprint for a veteran like Edwards to follow. This is a huge fight in the career of Yves, he as been and fought everywhere and if he could pull of a win over Stephens he would gain some decent traction in the division. Jeremy is going to use one of two approaches in this fight; the aforementioned knocked chasing style or what we saw against Anthony Pettis early- takedown and top control. I expect that Edwards is going to be talented enough to deal with both attacking with submission off his back if he is taken down and his 71% TDD has be believing that Jeremy’s success will be limiting. If I was a betting man (haha) I expect Stephens to be fully aware of Yves knockout history and look to pick up a highlight worthy KO to rebuild that power puncher image and maybe put a little extra green in his pocket. Edwards impressed me against Tony Ferguson and I really expect him to work in leg strikes with success to keep Stephens out of range and chasing. For Edwards he pays well and is worth a nice single bet, and should be added to a good portion of your parlays. I think that Edwards, Pierce, Johnson, Prater sounds like a decent little payday. For Stephens his style is entertaining, but if you look at his track record against other talented strikers- Cerrone, Pettis, Davis, Guillard, Stout, and Fisher he is 2-4-0 and could easily have been 1-5 or 0-6 and those odds don’t sound too appealing especially when he a favourite of this magnitude.
Jussier da Silva 2.80 vs John Dodson 1.50
Winner of this fight gets a shot at the Flyweight title, it has been confirmed, so the pressure on both fighters has gone up significantly. This will be Dodson’s third UFC appearance, plus his TUF experience, but for da Silva this is his debut. It has been well documented how difficult it can be making a debut in the biggest MMA organization on the planet and now the added pressure of a title shot up for grabs will surely make things even more tense for the Brazilian. Da Silva is a nice addition to the division and was formerly ranked as the top fighter at 125lbs, but his main focus is his ground game which will be his undoing here. Dodson has shown impressive takedown defense and his quickness and countering ability makes opponents hesitate when even considering taking a shot. If Forminga is going to get this fight into his realm he will need to capitalize on whatever opening Dodson gives him and I don’t anticipate many coming his way. Dodson and Greg Jackson will mostly likely create a gameplan based on speed and footwork that will see Dodson avoid, attack, and then retreat. This approach will have a two fold impact on the fight- 1) da Silva wont be able to get this fight to the ground negating his greatest attribute and 2) he will exhaust himself in the process of trying to catch his opponent. Dodson striking is dangerous and as da Silva slows down from the compilation of octagon shock, the pressure from a title shot, and the exhausting pace that the TUF winner will push he will become even more vulnerable. Flyweights have been accepted into the UFC with mixed reviews and I am not sure that this fight is the one to win them over, but Johnson vs Dodson for the title (if Dodson wins) will be an entertaining scrap. I feel confident enough to incorporate Dodson on a high percentage of my plays and a single bet, but do it sooner rather then later as I expect his price will drop off the table by Fight night probably getting as low as $1.25. If you intend to place a bet on da Silva wait as long as you can to increase his value as the public’s familiarity with Dodson- TUF and lack of knowledge of a da Silva will lead them to bet on what/ who they know which is John Dodson, this will drive his price down and da Silva’s up.
Justin Edwards 3.20 vs Josh Neer 1.33
This fight could be entertaining; Neer always puts on a good show and Edwards will come to fight there is no question there. The experience edge is Neer’s and he has it in spades which is a nice advantage, but it won’t decide this fight alone. There is one scenario that I could see Edwards winning- (outside of the flash KO which isn’t that likely) and that is him continually taking Neer down and grinding out a decision. Neer is all offense so there are opening for Edwards to capitalize on, but considering Edwards landed 7 takedowns in his debut against Harvison and didn’t win I don’t see him winning here either. Neer is dangerous off his back and should threaten Edwards so much so that Justin will start to shy away from his ground game. Edwards is most effective from the clinch when looking for takedowns, unfortunately Neer does some of his best work in close and will look to punish Edwards with short elbows strikes that will again force Justin out of his comfort zone. Neer’s gritty style should break Edwards, potentially as early as late in the first round and I anticipate him being extra motivated coming off of his devastating knockout defeat against Pyle. Neer doesn’t have the greatest value at $1.33, but he is still worth inclusion in your main parlays, but there are better options for single bets on this card- Pierce and Johnson being two of them. Edwards in 1-3 in the UFC and facing his toughest opponent to date considering 2 of the 3 men he has faced are no longer employed by ZUFFA so his worth as an underdog just isn’t there until he can show the abilify to compete at this level.
Jay Hieron 3.86 vs Jake Ellenberger 1.31
Having re-watched Hieron/ Askren I believe that Hieron was denied a win in that fight and the Bellator Welterweight championship, but I also thought that Rick Hawn could have been given the win over Hieron in the tournament final so it 6 of one and half dozen of the other. I really expect Ellenberger to come into this fight motivated. They say that a fighter really doesn’t reach their true potential until after they suffer their first defeat, Jake has been beaten in the past (Hieron actually gave him his first defeat) but I think that the Kampmann loss could serve as a new beginning for him. He was riding a nice streak of success, but I was starting to see this sense of entitlement creep into his performances. Heading into the Sanchez fight it seemed to me that Ellenberger felt he was going to walk all over Diego and he did well early, but when Sanchez started to dominate the third round Jake seemed to be in shock and didn’t know how to respond. Move ahead one fight and he tried to bowl over Martin Kampmann in the first, almost does, but when Martin comes back in round two and Jake attacks with that sense of invincibility he gets put away himself. The look of disbelief after the fight on Ellenberger’s face was the look of someone that just had their destiny unfairly taken away. He is far from out of contention, but he needs a win here to avoid a bigger drop down the depth charts and he knows that. Hieron is a decent fighter, but I think that Ellenberger is just a better version of him- his conditioning is better, more power, faster, and better striking technique. If Hieron gets a nod anywhere in this fight it is with his wrestling, but I think that Jake is good enough everywhere else to negate this. Hieron has had issues with power punchers in the past which is exactly what Ellenberger is, so if he blasts Hieron early he might not be able to recover like Kampmann or Diego did. At $1.31 this is not a bad price for Ellenberger and considering these guys have already fought once and Hieron won, (IFL 2006) Ellenberger will be further motivated to get that win back. Motivation and focus aren’t the only things required to win a fight, but when the talent is already there they can seal the deal. I will use Jake in my parlays, but I don’t feel risking a large amount for a limited return on a single bet is the best move here. For Hieron I would like to see him fight at this level and win before I start tossing money his way even at a lofty dog price.
Antonio Silva 3.05 vs Travis Browne 1.41
Let the hate begin, most people who have listen to my prediction are crying foul or even fool for my predictions that Bigfoot would topple Travis Browne. I did say on the show I was picking the Strikeforce Alumni by KO, what I really meant was TKO so I was partially wrong in my prediction. But yes, I do believe in Silva’s ability to emerge victorious. By no means do I expect it to be easy nor would I be shocked if Browne got his hand raised at the end of the night, but all of my past and current research with both men points me towards the Brazilian. Travis’s Browne’s unique striking style is unique at Heavyweight because there are drawbacks to fighting in that style, otherwise more fighters would emulate it. He has had success so far because his opponents have not been able to exploit the openings that are there. I broke this down on the Podcast, but in short form; cardio- his style of striking requires a lot of energy to maintain over long periods of time and openings- there is a reason fighters use a high guard and don’t hold their hands at their side when they strike and his style of running forward while attacking leaves him opening for a takedown. Browne is riding a a nice run of success, but the competition level is questionable- Griggs, Broughton, Struve, Kongo, and McSweeney are not exactly a comparable list of fighters to the top men that Silva has faced- Velasquez, Cormier, Fedor, Arlovski, Kyle, and Werdum. This isn’t the sole basis for my prediction, but it is an indication that Browne is getting the nod here for his current streak and undefeated record despite the fact that he has faced a lower level of competition. Had Browne and Silva switched their past opponents I think that their records would be fairly similar with Silva riding the winning streak and Browne having dropped 2 in a row. Silva’s chin is a a serious topic of discussion as well, but again it is not as clear cut as people are making it out to be. Silva was dropped by a series of combinations from Cormier and in reality if any heavyweight hits another as clean as Silva was hit they are going down. The Velasquez fight was more of top control by a dominant wrestler with a never ending gas tank, complicated by an early cut that severely inhibited his ability to see and fight back. Again, almost any Heavyweight in Silva’s position would have suffered a similar fate. Silva is arguably the most well rounded opponent that Browne as faced his combination of size, strength, and technical skill both striking and grappling will test Browne. If Travis wins he will be one step closer to a title shot and if Silva wins there will be a lot of people backtracking on their expectations that Browne is going to blow him out of the water. At $3.05 there is significant value in a veteran like Silva and I would suggest backing him on a single bet and as part of my parlays. At the same time, Browne is the favourite for a reason and he has shown significant improvement from one fight to the next so I wont play Silva everywhere. As far as Browne is concerned if you want to play him working him into a parlay where your investment is small and the return big is the best way to use him. Risking a lot to win a little with a single play isn’t the best way to go, I think the odds should be much closer together and unless you can get Browne above $1.65 I would take a pass.
Top 5 Confidence Bets (1- Most Confident to Win outright)
1. Darren Uyenoyama 1.35
2. Mike Pierce 1.63
3. Diego Nunes 1.57
4. John Dodson 1.50
5. Michael Johnson 1.71
Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)
1. Carlo Prater 2.15
2. Michael Johnson 1.71
3. Yves Edwards 2.95- Void
4. Antonio Silva 3.05
5. Mike Pierce 1.63
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
- Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
- I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.
Mike Pierce/ Aaron Simpson Total Rounds Over 2.5- Both guys have a history of going to decision- Simpson 6 decisions in a row and 7 of hi last 8 and Pierce 4 in a row and 8 of his last 10 have gone the distance. Both guys have grinding wrestling based styles that should push this fight into the later stages. One area of concern is if Simpson slows and Pierce hurts him he could score a TKO, but I wouldn’t expect that until later in the fight.
Diego Nunes/ Bart Palaszewski Total Rounds Over 2.5- Diego Nunes by himself is enough to justify this play with each one of his WEC/UFC fights going the distance. Palaszewski is a veteran and he really doesn’t take a lot of chances that could leave him vulnerable to a counter and he too has a number of decisions on his record at 19.
Jacob Volkman/ Shane Roller Total Rounds Over 2.5- Volkman is a decision machine and Roller should be able to compete enough to avoid getting finished forcing this fight into the later stages.
Antonio Silva/ Travis Browne Total Rounds Under 2.5 or 3.5- Most Heavyweight fights are short and this one should be no exception with both guys packing a wallup.
Antonio Silva to win by KO/TKO/DQ $4.30- If Silva wins this fight it most likely wont be by submission and while there is potential for a decision win the KO/TKO outcome is most likely so another $1..25 onto Bigfoots’ value is a decent play.