UFC on FX 4 & UFC 147- Post Fight Results
Back to back UFC events have produced some interesting headlines, few of which were positive. On Friday night we were treated to a rather interesting main event which saw fan favourite Clay Guida implement a game-plan that consisted of avoid, avoid, avoid, quickly engage and repeat. This less then exciting style, something not normal for ‘the Carpenter’, frustrated his opponent Gray Maynard, turned the crowd against him, forced the referee to warn Guida about running away, and finally resulted in the judges giving Maynard the split decision win.
Guida’s style has brought on some serious critisism for both he and his trainers. He seemed more then willing to spend the entire 5 rounds bouncing around, which is something Clay is known for, but it is his general lack of engagement that created the problem. Also on the card we saw the retirement of Spencer Fisher, maybe, as he stated after the fight that he wasn’t 100% sold on the idea of walking away.
On Saturday night, UFC 147 went down with a lot of critisism surrounding the card. With less then a stellar lineup do to injuries and a relience on the Ultimate Fighter: Brazil cast to fill out the card many felt that UFC 147 was far from Pay-Per-View calibre. In the main event Rich Franklin defeated Wanerlei Silva via decision in an entertaining fight, but probably a match-up that was better suited for the middle of the card. Fabricio Werdum was also victorious dispatching of Mike Russow inside the first round via TKO, while Cezar Ferreira and Rony Mariano Bezerra captured their respective Ultimate Fighter Brazil titles.
Kamikaze Overdrive had an excellent prediction weekend. Starting with UFC on FX 4 I went 8-4 including a 4-0 record on the main card. I followed up Friday night with another solid record of 3-0-1 again undefeated on the main card including an upset pick of Hacran Dais over heavily favoured Yuri Alcantara. Completing a solid prediction weekend Joe Caporale went 2-0 predicting the two Ultimate Fighter Finals and just for good measure Caporale had an equally as good Friday night predicting Bellator 71 finishing with a 3-0 record, with his 4th fight being scratched. Including the Bellator predictions Kamikazeoverdrive.net finished the weekend with a fantastic 16-4-1 record. The betting pack had a decent night; I went 5 for 5 with my Confidence picks, hit my #1 value bet (Swanson $2.60), hit the Hacran Dias upset at $3.10 and had a draw on the Milton Viera pick. The parlays were not quite as successful with only one winner and 3 of the remaining 5 parlays finishing with only 1 wrong fighter included in the parlay (horseshoes and hand grenades). The individual bet breakdowns also provided a tonne of solid information and in the end it was a successful weekend. Check out the entire bet pack posted below.
Stone/Pauge- I didn’t get a chance to watch this fight .
Dan Miller- He probably wont get close to title contention, but I hope this is the start of a solid run at Welterweight. Miller vs Mike Pyle would be an interesting fight.
Ricardo Funch- Cut
Matt Brown- Just like Miller it is nice to see a long time UFC veteran get another win and considering this is his 3rd straight victory and he took it on short notice it only adds the significance. Unfortunately for Brown his recent success will most likely get him a shot at a higher ranked opponent, whom he has had trouble with in the past. Brown vs Diego Sanchez would be a solid fight.
Luis Ramos- He most likely will be cut, but if not his back will be against the wall next time out.
Nick Catone- He most likely won the first 2 rounds before the cut stopped the fight, the cut prevented him from pushing his win streak to 3 and kept KO from a 9-3 record. He needs to stay healthy, Catone vs Court McGee might be interesting down the road.
Chris Camozzi- tough durable fighter with back to back wins. Camozzi vs Ronnie Markes could be a decent scrap.
Steven Siler- this guy is tearing through the competition and has a tonne of confidence. He really has the potential to be the biggest thing to come out of his TUF season if he can continue this pace. Silver vs Jimy Hettes, the original fight that was set up for this event makes sense.
Joey Gambino/Brock Jardine/C.J. Keith- all three fighters made their UFC debuts and found out why this is the biggest stage in the world for MMA. Two lost their undefeated records and Jardine suffered his second career defeat. Keith might get cut for failing to make weight, but if not all three should get another chance especially considering they all stepped on short notice.
Rick Story- Look good in the fight, but he didn’t dominate or finish his opponent which tells me he probably isn’t ready to get a push back against top competition just yet. Rick Story vs Sean Pierson probably makes sense.
Ramsey Nijem- he smashed through is opponent in less then half a round. He has talent and if his striking continues to improve he will probably make a nice career in the middle of the Lightweight ranks. Nijem vs Mac Danzig would be a nice test for the former TUF cast member.
Ricardo Lamas- Lamas just took a huge jump in the Featherweight rankings, add in that Yuri Alcantara lost to an unranked opponent and Ross Pearson was also defeated and Lamas could be in a #1 contenders bout next. Lamas vs Charles Oliveira would put the winner on the cusp of a title shot.
Hatsu Hioki- he said he wasn’t ready for Aldo and this fight confirmed it. Comparing his two average performances in North America to his one very good fight in Japan he and his team better come up with a new approach to help him cope with the long trip from Japan to North American if he wishes to continue in the top of the division. I don’t know how exactly they get ready for the long trip but I think that consideration should be given to setting up a relationship with a North American gym and heading over as early as 2 weeks before the event in order to be ready and unaffected by jet lag. Hioki vs Alcantara will quickly put one those fighters back in contention
Cub Swanson- he is an entertaining fighter and had he continued his early success against Ricardo Lamas we would be talking about Swanson at 3-0 in the UFC on in title contention. Either way he is still moving closer to the top 10 contenders. Swanson vs Darren Elkins would be a solid scrap.
Brian Ebersole- survived early and ground out the win. I think Ebersole might be suffering from the expectations of being a successful UFC fighter. In the first couple of fights there were no expectations for him, now that people see him as rising contender and he seems to have lost some of that carefree style. Brian Ebersole vs Mike Pierce could be an interesting bout and force Pierce to fight.
TJ Waldburger- He hung in there and had his chin tested several times which was good to see. He has a lot of talen and is a young fighter. Waldburger vs Lance Benoist.
Spencer Fisher- retire like he said or move to Strikeforce because there are too many UFC LW to keep him around.
Sam Stout- FINALLY! It was great to see Sammy mix in some wrestling. Even if he isn’t successful on every attempt it gives his opponents something else to think about, which will make Stout’s striking that much better. Sammy seems to have lost a little bit of his technical style, but if he starts to use a little more variety I am fine with it. Sam Stout vs Takanori Gomi would be an interesting fight.
Clay Guida- he took his movement to the next level and paid for it. Too much of a ‘good’ thing turned out to be a bad thing here. Guida needed to attack more and I’m sure he will fix this next time around. This fight has damage his reputation and standing within the division, but a couple of fights will get him right back in the mix. Guida vs Jim Miller makes sense for both guys or Guida vs Joe Lauzon.
Gray Maynard- his frustration showed here, the manner in which he swung wildly and missed didn’t look that great on his part. I think he still needs another, far more dominant win before they toss him back into the title picture. Maynard vs Anthony Pettis or Maynard vs Donald Cerrone would be great fights.
Felipe Arantes- He should have got the win and his striking looks solid. His issues with TDD against a fresh opponent are concerning though. Arantes vs Daniel Pineda would be a great battle.
Milton Vieira- He will get another chance, he gassed and couldn’t return to the first round form where he was dominant. If conditioning is an issue he will need to tighten that up or his grappling skills will be a non-factor beyond round one. Viera vs Maximo Blanco, neither had a great first performance, loser goes home.
Yuri Alcantara- this is a big defeat for Yuri, dropping a fight like this against a debuting relatively unknown fighter will make it hard for him to maintain his position in the division. Alcantara vs Hatsu Hioki, winner is back in the mix, loser isn’t that far out in a not too deep division.
Hacran Dias- Huge start to his UFC career and he will probably be on the UFC 153 card which is the next time the company goes to Brazil. He would be bested served to take his time and try not to rush his climb up the rankings. Dias vs Jason Young would be a step back but I think still a logical next move.
Mike Russow- this was the step up in competition he was looking for and unfortunately he didn’t have a good showing. He is still going to be a long time member of the division, but he will need to go on another run to get back to this level. Mike Russow vs Dave Herman.
Fabricio Werdum- He looked very good, his striking looked dangerous and he took out a tough durable guy. This fight really opened eyes and he should be one win away from a title shot. Werdum’s options at the top of the division are sparse with Mir coming of a defeat, Overeem out, and Carwin returning from an injury. I think a fight with Big Nog, when he recovers, would make sense and a win there could give him enough to challenge the winner of JDS vs Cain.
Wanderlei Silva- Wandy was so close to winning this fight in round 2, but never go close again. Silva still has value in the division but fighting at the top level just doesn’t make sense for him anymore. One more crack against a top opponent will give him a chance to sink or swim Silva vs Yushin Okami or Jake Shields would be decent mid-card fights.
Rich Franklin- Franklin could be the second best fighter in the 185 pound division and never get another shot at the title. The best thing for Rich would be Chael winning the title because that would suddenly push Rich right back into the mix and make a title fight for him much more interesting. Franklin vs Vitor Belfort in a rematch will put one right back in the mix for a title shot, especially if Chael wins.
Not the best series of fights, but still a few bright spots. UFC 148 is on the horizon and this is going to be a huge night of fights that we can all look forward to it.
Congrats to user- Mitchell for winning the UFC on FX 4 prediction contest, the UFC 148 contest will be posted soon.
UFC on FX 4 & UFC 147 Bet Pack
Parlay Doubles=================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: Joey Gambino $2.05 Selection 2: Brian Ebersole $1.40 =================================================== Price: $2.87 =================================================== Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: Cub Swanson $2.60 Selection 2: Rich Franklin $1.57 =================================================== Price: $4.08
Parlay Triples=================================================== Parlay #3 =================================================== Selection 1: Nick Catone $1.60 Selection 2: Hatsu Hioki $1.51 Selection 3: Milton Vieira $2.35*- Draw =================================================== * Estimated Betting Line Price: $5.68 =================================================== Parlay #4 =================================================== Selection 1: Brian Ebersole $1.40 Selection 2: CJ Keith $2.50 Selection 3: Rich Franklin $1.57 =================================================== Price: $5.50
Parlay Double-Doubles=================================================== Parlay #5 =================================================== Selection 1: Sam Stout $1.32 Selection 2: Gray Maynard $1.31 Selection 3: Cub Swanson $2.60 Selection 4: Joey Gambino $2.05 =================================================== Price: $9.22 =================================================== Parlay #6 =================================================== Selection 1: Brian Ebersole $1.40 Selection 2: Hacran Dias $3.10 Selection 3: CJ Keith $2.50 Selection 4: Hatsu Hioki $1.51 =================================================== Price: $16.38
Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns
UFC on FX 4 Maynard vs Guida
Ken Stone Closed vs Dustin Pague Closed
I haven’t seen odds for this fight yet, most likely I will leave it off the bet card because there are too many unknowns with multiple opponent changes for Stone, Pague taking this fight late notice and having fought 2 weeks ago, Stone being out of action for so long, Stone’s chin, and the list goes on. This fight is a Do Not play, but if you missed my prediction I did take Ken Stone to pick up the win.
Ricardo Funch 3.80 vs Dan Miller 1.27
Funch’s first UFC run was not a good one and I don’t see his second one being much better. Miller is a durable, gritty fighter, with a very good ground game all characteristics that will make this a difficult fight for Funch. Miller has fought some of the best fighters in the Middleweight division and even though I am quite confident that he gets the win here this not my favourite play of the night based on the uncertainty of Miller debuting in a new weightclass combined with him paying out at less then $1.30. This isn’t quite a ‘Do Not Play’, but its close use Miller sparingly.
Luis Ramos 2.90 vs Matt Brown 1.40
Matt Brown will most likely never find himself in a fight with UFC title implications, that being said he is the type of fighter that can hang with anyone on any given night. Brown has an iron chin but on the other side of the coin, he has had major issues with being submitted. We really didn’t get to see much of Ramos in his debut because it only last 40 seconds with him on the wrong end of knockout. Brown is going to have a significant size advantage which should play a major role with his grinding in your face style, but Ramos is capable of locking up a submission which makes a play on Brown (especially in the role of the favourite) not that enticing. I would suggest looking at your other options or making a small play on Ramos as the under dog.
Chris Camozzi 2.35 vs Nick Catone 1.60
Catone has been away from the cage for a prolonged period of time which is always a major concern, but looking at his track record; a split decision lose against top ranked Mark Munoz and then a win over Costa Phillipou shows that this guy has some serious potential. Camozzi is a gritty fighter but he really isn’t highly skilled in any one particular area and unless ring rust takes a serious toll on Catone I don’t see Camozzi being able to get the better of him. This isn’t the first time that Catone has returned to the cage after a long layoff and he looked fine then so I like the wrestler here both as part of a parlay and as a single play especially considering he pays out at $1.60.
Joey Gambino 2.05 vs Steven Siler 1.74
Betting on fighters making their debut, especially a young fighter with limited experience is a huge risk. I was hoping Gambino would come in some where between $2.25 and $2.50, but clearly the oddsmakers see what he is capable of and the line reflects this. Siler has looked solid in his two UFC fights and probably is worth a play on his own at $1.74. Gambino has power and the wrestling ability to do a lot of damage and coming from a gym like Tri-Star he will be more then prepared for this fight. Siler has been on a roll, but his past issues with being stopped (4 losses by knockout and 5 more by submission) are hard to look past. Even at just over $2 Gambino has value both as a single play and as part of parlay, but again he is making his debut so don’t let you entire evening’s investments hinge on him.
Brock Jardine 3.80 vs Rick Story 1.26
Roughly this time last year Story was coming off the biggest win of his career over Thiago Alves and getting ready to face Charlie Brenneman after Nate Marquart was pulled from the fight. Story drops the fight to Brenneman and follows it up with a 3 round decision defeat against Martin Kampmann. As a result of his recent struggles, Story is now fighting on the prelims and facing a UFC newcomer in what is really a must a win for him. If Jardine is able to pull off the victory here it will do serious damage to Story’s career, potentially too much to recover from. Story will be aware of his situation, not overlook his opponent and bring his ‘A’ game. I really don’t see any areas where Jardine has an advantage over Story in any place this fight can go. They share a lot of similarities in their fighting styles so I’ll back the more experienced and battle tested Story but I will use him sparingly because at a $1.26 the risk/reward isn’t anything to get excited about.
C.J. Keith 2.50 vs Ramsey Nijem 1.53
These odds jumped off the page at me; I predicted Keith to win this fight based on his ability to match Ramsey’s wrestling and outstrike him in the exchanges. Keith was impressive in the footage I saw both with his wrestling and striking, but again you don’t know what to expect when a fighter is making his debut on the biggest MMA stage in the world (I know I have mentioned this several times but it is relevant). Nijem isn’t exactly a seasoned vet either, but the experience he gained on the Ultimate Fighter certainly counts for something. Ramsey has been working to improve his striking and if he can’t control Keith on the ground it will be interesting to see how these to match-up on the feet. In a couple of his fight Keith executed a sweep from the bottom and powered his way to the top position, if he can pull that off here or defend Ramsey’s takedowns altogether it will really damage Nijem’s confidence. Nijem at $1.53 isn’t a great deal, considering the last time he faced an opponent with a comparable skill-set to Keith he got knocked out in the first round. I really like Keith as a single bet at $2.50 and including him on a parlay will greatly increase your return, but he is a dog for a reason so use him sparingly.
Ricardo Lamas 2.55 vs Hatsu Hioki 1.51
I picked Hioki to win this fight, but Lamas is a threat especially if the wrong Hioki shows up. The Hioki we saw in his debut against Roop was anything but elite level and Lamas is the type of guy that will exploit him if he isn’t at his best. The big advantage that Hatsu has is his grappling; Lamas had some difficulty with Cub Swanson on the ground and with Hioki’s grappling skills and long limbs I see him having the same probably worse problems here. Hioko’s reach and chin should help him to make up for any technical advantage that Ricardo might have with his striking and if the Hioki we saw in Japan shows up he should have no problem getting this fight to the ground where he is best suited to pick up the win. Lamas is probably worth a small look by himself, but if you don’t have the extra bankroll I would stay away. At $1.51 Hioki has value as part of a larger parlay or coupled with an underdog like Swanson, Gambino, or Keith.
Cub Swanson 2.60 vs Ross Pearson 1.48
Interesting line here, Pearson comes in as the favourite and I understand why but I don’t necessarily agree. Again I like to level with you guys in these breakdowns; my original prediction was Pearson to win this fight, then part of the way through recording I started to lean towards Cub. My change of heart is based on Cub being the more well rounded fighter, if he can use his grappling with even limited success and match Pearson on the feet he should have the edge in the judges’ eyes if it does go the distance. I like fighters with more levels to their game and that certainly favours Cub. Pearson is a known UFC fighter and in making the drop to the smaller weightclass so he is expected by many to run through his opponents and even though that wasn’t the case in his divisional debut, he is still getting the push here by the oddsmakers. Pearson probably won’t have much of a size advantage and even if he does he would be best not to use it because of Cub’s grappling skills. Additionally, I give Swanson the edge in power and quickness which can be a lethal combination. Ross is the more technical striker but Swanson’s aggressive style should help him to cope with this. We have seen multiple instances of fighter’s dropping a division and not finding the success that many expect, for example Kenny Florian’s debut fight with Diego Nunes was pretty competitive even though Kenny entered as a significant favourite. Like I mentioned above I was originally on Ross to win this fight, so should he get the ‘W’ it won’t be a huge shock to me. In the end the value here is the determining factor, Pearson is a little low for my liking and Swanson is probably paying higher then he should be so get on him early in case the line moves. I like Swanson at $2.60 on his own and I will use him as part of one of my main parlays on the night probably with a couple of favourites.
TJ Waldburger 2.85 vs Brian Ebersole 1.40
Ebersole has quickly become one of my favorite fighters; he has a unique style and is almost always entertaining (his last fight with Claude Patrick wasn’t the greatest). I enjoy Waldburger’s aggressive submission style as well and was a little disappointed to see these two lined up simply because I want to see them both moving forward, but most likely one will take a step back here. Waldburger has the submission skills to threaten just about anyone, but his issues with getting knocked out especially so early in his career is hard to look past. Ebersole has shown excellent submission defense so far in the UFC, but he has had trouble with grapplers getting tapped a number of times earlier in his career. If Waldburger gets an arm early he could submitt Ebersole but that sounds like the grappling version of a puncher’s chance. More likely the veteran will endure the early onslaught and go on the attack eventually getting the stoppage. Ebersole at $1.40 is a decent addition to a parlay, he doesn’t have a huge return as a single bet but I am fairly confident that he gets the win so it is not the worst move you can make. If you want to increase the value of this fight take a look at the props posted below for a couple of options.
Spencer Fisher 3.30 vs Sam Stout 1.32
This will be Spencer Fisher’s final fight of his MMA career and we have seen in the past that fighters heading into retirement will often leave everything inside the cage one last time. The first two fights were fantastic and even though it is possible I struggle to believe that this meeting will live up to the hype of the first two. Fisher is far past his prime while Stout at age 28 is right in the middle of his which leads me to believe that the competitive edge should shift significantly to the younger more technical striker. Fisher will be buoyed by emotion but I don’t think that will be enough to overcome Stout’s advantages. I have Sammy ranked high on my confidence list to win outright, but at $1.32 he isn’t my favourite play as far as value is concerned. I will most likely use him as part of a parlay, maybe 2 but I will be sure to a have couple without Sammy’s name on it just in case this fight goes the other way.
Clay Guida 3.45 vs Gray Maynard 1.29
Big fight in the Lightweight title picture with the winner jumping right back into contention. I think that Maynard has all the tools to beat Guida; his wrestling is as good if not better, his striking should be more technical and he should have the edge in power . Guida’s speed and conditioning could be an issues as many like to point out how Gray had trouble in the later stages of his fights with Edgar, but I am not sold there. Edgar’s speed and footwork will make any fighter looked like they have issues in these areas, and although Guida uses a a tonne of movement he isn’t nearly as technical as Frankie and as a result I think that Maynard will be able to handle him. At $1.29 Gray should be used as part of a parlay while I would put some cash down on Clay at $3.45 by himself. Maynard is returning from his first defeat and it was by knockout so it will be interesting to see how he fares mentally. He should be motivated to get another shot at the title and I think that shows up here.
UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin II
Milton Vieira Closed vs Felipe Arantes Closed
Here is another fight where I haven’t seen the odds yet but I can only assume that Viera will be in the $2.25-$2.65 range. Even if he is below the $2.25 he is still a decent play as I feel confident with his takedown skills that he will walk away with the victory here. Arantes is a talented striker, but has had some issues when his opponents have taken the fight to the ground. Again without knowing where the odds are set for this fight it is hard to break it down, but if Arantes comes in close to $1.65 or above probably consider him as a single bet. If he is able to duplicate his performance from his previous fight where he endured the early grappling exchanges and then lit up a fatigued opponent with his Muay Thai he could walk away with the win. I did put together a prop bet for this fight at the bottom of the page that you could take a quick look at if you aren’t happy with picking a winner straight up.
Hacran Dias 3.10 vs Yuri Alcantara 1.34
Dias isn’t a well known fighter, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t a good fighter. Having evaluated his past fights I think these odds are skewed in Alcantara’s favour simply because the average fan will recognize his name from his 3 fights under the Zuffa banner (2 UFC & 1 WEC) and because they aren’t familiar with Hacran they will put their money down on Yuri without any real solid investigation. Alcantara has looked impressive so far but his fight with Arantes was competitive and although he dominated early against Omigawa he had some issues later in that fight, so he is undefeated but it is not like he has crushed his UFC opposition. I had success in the past betting on unknown fighter making their UFC debuts as significant underdogs, a pair that come to mind are Charles Oliveira and Maiquel Falcao who were both victorious. I do honestly believe Dias has the skills to with this fight, it should be a close match-up either way. I would certainly play Dias as a single bet and use him in parlay as well, while Alcantara at $1.34 pays better than a lot of favorites but I would most likely pass on this fight rather then back Alcantara here.
Mike Russow 4.50 vs Fabricio Werdum 1.19
Could Russow win this fight? Yes, but it will take an impressive effort and he is going to have to dive directly into the mouth of the beast. Werdum is one of the best grapplers in MMA, but Russow will need to meet it head on and implement his wrestling game. If he can put Werdum on his back and keep him there for the duration of the bout he should be able to pick up the win, but dealing with Werdum on the ground could simply be too much for the former NCAA wrestler. Werdum’s striking has really come along way and if the fight remains vertical this will be the difference maker. I like Werdum to win this fight, but at $1.19 the value is so limit I he is probably best left off your bet card. Russow on the other hand is worth a look at $4.50 for a single bet, but there are a lot of elements that favour Werdum, probably too many to drop a large sum on Russow.
Wanderlei Silva 2.35 vs Rich Franklin 1.57
Most main event betting lines have the favourite paying around $1.25 or less, so anytime you can find a fight like this it is a nice change of pace. Picking Franklin came down to a pair of significant areas; conditioning over a 5 round fight and his ability to mix up his strikes. Silva is aggressive, but he seems to be too predictable which will create openings for a more diverse and technical striker like Rich to capitalize on. Rich has been koed 4 times, but all 4 were against elite level striker (Silva x2, Belfort & Machida) so there is always a concern there but generally speaking he will just need to avoid Wanderlei’s overhand right especially if he tries to counter off of Franklin’s left kick. I like Franklin at $1.57 as part of a parlay and while he has an alright return as a single bet I would prefer to double him up with another favourite to get that number closer to $2.00. Silva has a punchers chance here, but that chance will dimish quickly and at $2.35 he isn’t that tempting.
Top 5 Confidence Bets (1- Most Confident to Win outright)
1. Dan Miller (UFC on FX 4)
2. Brian Ebersole (UFC on FX 4)
3. Sam Stout (UFC on FX 4)
4. Fabricio Werdum (UFC 147)
5. Rich Franklin (UFC 147)
Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)
1. Cub Swanson $2.60 (UFC on FX 4)
2. Joey Gambin0 $2.05 (UFC on FX 4)
3. Milton Vieira $2.35* (UFC 147)- Draw
4. CJ Keith $2.50 (UFC on FX 4)
5. Hacran Dias $3.10 (UFC 147)
*Estimated value, anthing above $2.15 keeps him in this spot.
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
- Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 3-4 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
- I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.
Gray Maynard/ Clay Guida Total Rounds Over- Guida and Maynard are known for their smoothering wrestling style and both fighters are durable having combined for 22 decisions . Additionally, both have been tough to finish Gray has only been finished once and Clay 6 times, but all 6 of Clay’s finishes were by submission a method that Maynard has never won by. I expect that the over/under should be set at 3.5 rounds, but it is still a solid play.
Brian Ebersole to Win by KO/TKO/DQ- Waldburger has had isssues with getting knocked out (5 of 6 losses by KO or TKO) and Ebersoles’s unusual and effective striking especially his use of elbow strikes both on the feet and on the ground (see his TKO victory over Dennis Hallman) could add to Waldburger’s total.
Brian Ebersole/TJ Waldburger Total Rounds Under- Ebersole is capable of winning this fight early (TJ’s 5 losses by KO/TKO & Ebersole possessing an unorthodox but effective striking style/ power which could reproduce the finish of his fight with Hallman) most likely by TKO/KO, but if Waldburger earns the win it will most likely be a quick finishes as well. He aggressively pursues submission opportunities with 13 of his 15 wins ending before the middle of round 2 and 4 of his 6 losses following the same pattern with a fifth ending at the 2:35 mark of round 2. Either Waldburger catches Ebersole with a sub and taps him inside the first 5 minutes or the more likely scenario Ebersole either defends or avoids his opponent’s uber aggressive attack resulting in a dominant position which then leads to the finish.
Rick Story to Win by Decision- I expect that Story will be a sizeable favorite, so there is potential to increase his value by taking him to win by decision. Over his career Story has gone the distance 12 times in 18 fights, winning 7 on the judge’s cards compared to a combined total of 6 wins by either submission or decision. 6 of Story’s last 7 fights have gone the full 15 minutes, tread carefully as his opponent is making his UFC debut along with making a sizeable step up in competition so a stoppage, but I still think this is a solid play.
Fabricio Werdum/ Mike Russow Total Rounds Over- If you listened to my prediction this is probably a head scratcher considering I took Werdum by submission, but most likely I won’t be playing Werdum straight up because his value is limited. If Werdum elects to focus on his striking and/or Russow is too concerned with Fabricio’s BJJ to try and take him down I could really see this fight going the distance. Werdum will most likely outstrike but not finish Russow, since Mike did take almost 3 rounds of all Todd Duffee could throw at him and was still standing proving he has a solid chin. Additionally, if you aren’t willing to risk money on the underdog pulling this one out the Over would still be in play if Russow’s wrestling proves to be good enough to smoother and neutralize Werdum for the full 15.
Felipe Arantes/Milton Vieira Total Rounds Under-This isn’t my favorite play but I thought I would throw it out there for you guys to consider. Vieira has outrageous submission skills with 8 of 13 wins finishing before the midway mark of round 2. Arantes has similar numbers with 9 of 14 wins concluding on the under side of the total. If Vieira has success taking Arantes down like Alcantara did Milton will have multiple submission opportunities and in the footage I have seen of Vieira reacting when he gets hit hard I could see Arantes tagging him early and Vieira potentially folding up shop. Either way, both scenarios would lead to an early finish making the under the play.