UFC on Fuel TV 9 Post Fight Results, Review, & Bet Pack

Dillon Collins

Papy Abedi vs Besam Yousef

The judges weighed the takedowns ahead of Yousef’s offense and awarded Abedi a close split decision victory.

Tom Lawlor vs Michael Kuiper

Kuiper started off strong, stuffing all the takedowns of the decorated wrestler Lawlor and even earning some of his own. Kuiper poured on offense and seemed to have Lawlor hurt, but the American managed to survive the round, though it was apparent Lawlor had injured his knee during a late scramble. Kuiper came out to answer the second looking to finish his wounded foe and immediately searched for a takedown, but Lawlor was able to lock in a tight guillotine choke, forcing Kuiper to tap. The come-from-behind victory rights the ship for Lawlor after a close decision loss to Francis Carmont in November, while Kuiper sees the progress of a knockout of Jarred Hamman vanish with the loss.

Ben Alloway vs Ryan Laflare

Alloway had no answer for the tricky ground game of his opponent, who took him down and mounted him at will, pouring on punishment and threatening with submissions. All judges unamiously gave the newcomer a 30-27 decision victory.

Conor Mcgregor vs Marcus “Bama Beast” Brimage.

The pair had exchanged words, and shoves, at the weigh-ins and all signs pointed to this being an explosive encounter. Brimage came out fast and swinging, with the Irishmen all two happy to oblige. Brimage pressured early, coming forward and throwing heavy shots, but Mcgregor acted the part of counter-puncher, tagging Brimage with an uppercut that dropped his foe and followed up with a vicious flurry that halted the bout in little over 60 seconds. The loss snaps a 3-0 UFC record for Brimage, while Mcgregor pocketed knockout of the night bonus and now looks to return for the UFC’s trip to Boston this summer.

Adlan Amagov vs Chris Spang.

Over the course of three rounds Amagov utilized his superior footwork and rounded striking attack, picking apart Spang with a variety of spinning kicks from the outside. Mixing in takedowns from his sambo background, Amagov controlled and overwhelmed Spang through the entire fight, earning a unanimous judge’s decision.

Tor Troeng vs Adam Cella

With both men coming off devastating knockouts in the tournament. The young and relatively inexperienced Cella proved to be no match for Tor, who was seen as one of the early favorites heading into the this seasons TUF. Tor got the takedown early and never let up, achieving mount and punishing Cella with punches. Cella gave up his back and after softening him up with punches Tor locked in a rear naked choke to end the fight in the first round. “The Hammer” wins his octagon debut while Cella may have to find his next fight in a new promotion.

Michael Johnson vs Reza Madadi

Late in the first Johnson got a takedown and as Madadi worked the cage to get back to his feet, Johnson landed a vicious high kick that seriously floored his foe. Johnson swarmed with punches and for a moment it appeared the fight could be over but Madadi survived the round, visibly shaken as he returned to his corner. Madadi avoided Johnson’s early flurries and early in the second and managed to get the fight to the mat, where he used superior positioning and submission attempts to improbably steal the second frame. The third round would likely determine the winner of the bout as both men came out looking to set the pace. Madadi got the takedown and worked for a guillotine, switching to a d’arce choke. He synched the choke tighter and got the tap, earning a hard-fought comeback for the ages.

Robbie Peralta vs Akira Corassani

Both men seemed tentative early, showing respect for the others skills. A right hand by Peralta had Corassani reeling in the latter frame of the first, likely sealing the round. Corassani recovered in the second, working in takedowns and landing big strikes of his own, tilting the round in his favor in what would be an otherwise close exchange. The third saw more exchanges from both men, but it was the takedowns of Corassani that likely secured the decision, as all three judges gave him the unanimous nod. Corassani now has won two straight in the octagon while Peralta sees a ten fight unbeaten streak dashed with the loss.

Diego Brando vs Pablo Garza

Brando opened up early, throwing leg kicks with vicious velocity and methodically picking apart the much taller Garza. Brando got the takedown, and showing his superior jiu-jitsu skills, achieved mount, where he would lock in a tight arm-triangle choke. Garza worked to free himself but eventually relented, tapping only two-minutes into the opening round. Brando improves to 3-1 in the octagon with two straight victories, while Garza finds himself at 3-3 and is in need of a big victory in his next outing.

Brad Pickett vs Mike Easton

Early on both men traded, with Easton hitting some nasty leg kicks and Pickett throwing his trademark uppercut. Both men had takedowns in the opening frame, seemingly neutralizing each other’s attacks. The second saw both men do some great work against the cage, with Pickett getting the better of the trading, landing big body punches and solid combinations, but Easton was all-too-happy to oblige in the scrap. Easton got a nice early takedown in the third, but a beautiful sweep from Pickett saw the Brit on top and landing big shots. Pickett with the reverse body lock, throwing down big shots until Easton can escape and the two engage in a wild flurry until the end bell, finishing off a memorable scrap. In the end Pickett did enough to take a close split decision, but Easton did nothing to lose fans, and the pair pocketed fight of the night for their efforts.

Matt Mitrione vs Phil De Fries

Mitrione was on the heels of his first two fight losing streak of his career, with a decision loss to Cheick Kongo and a recent knockout loss to Roy Nelson, while De Fries was knocked out by returning Todd Duffee at UFC 155 this past December. This was a classic striker versus grappler match and many pundits and diehards fans knew if De Fries did not get the fight to the ground early it could be a short night. They were correct. De Fries did come out searching for the takedown, but stumbled and appeared to strike himself back off of Mitrione’s thigh. Mitrione scrambled on his down opponent, landing bombs that put the lights out and earned him a knockout victory in only 19 seconds of the first round.  Mitrione lands some job security for the foreseeable future with the win, while De Fries could be facing a release from the promotion with his third ko loss in four fights.

Ryan Couture vs Ross the Real Deal Pearson

Couture was coming off a close decision win over KJ Noons in Strikeforce, while Pearson recently returned to lightweight and dispatched George Sotorpolois with third round tko victory this past December. In the opening round Couture looked the part of a seasoned octagon veteran, pressing Pearson up against the cage and unleashing an attack of dirty-boxing, kicks and knees that would make old Randy proud. Working for takedowns and constantly pressuring the Brit, Couture came out of the opening round with a ton of momentum. The second round saw Pearson come alive, as he found his range and began to pick apart Couture, who, unable to close the distance to clinch or apply pressure, began to crumble under the pace of Pearson. A huge combination rocked Couture and Pearson followed up with a flurry on the ground, ending the fight midway through the second. Pearson improves to 2-0 in his return to lightweight, while Couture will have to seek his first octagon win in his next bout.

Gegard Mousassi vs Ilir Latifi

Many predicted a destructive performance by Mousassi, who would dominate his unheralded foe for an early finish. Well he dominated, but oddly did not get the finish we all expected.  Mousassi picked apart Latifi in the opening round with jabs and kicks, stumping all of Latifi’s takedown attempts. The second was more of the same with Mousassi easily stopping Latifi’s takedowns and picking him apart with strikes, causing some swelling on the eyes of the Swede. Latifi was durable and game, but unable to mount any significant offense. The third was seemingly a repeat of the opening two, as Mousassi landed his jabs at will, picking apart his opponent, but never really coming close to a finish. A trip saw Latifi land in Mousassi’s guard and try to mount some offense but time expired and the judges gave a unanimous decision to Mousassi. Latifi performed admirably in his short notice debut, but was no match for his experienced opponent. Mousassi explained afterwards he had injured his knee in training and required surgery, showing why his killer instinct was perhaps a bit absent. Mousassi wins his octagon debut while Latifi is sure to get another crack at a first octagon win with his brave showing.

  UFC on Fuel TV 9

*I have started to use Props in my parlays, if your book doesn’t offer the prop or won’t allow them to be used in a parlay- use a pick from my confidence list.

Parlay Doubles

===================================================
Parlay #1
===================================================
Selection 1: Mousasi by KO/TKO/DQ $2.50
Selection 2: Brad Pickett $1.71
===================================================
Price: $4.28
 
===================================================
Parlay #2
===================================================
Selection 1:
Selection 2: Conor McGregor $1.67
===================================================
Price: $4.84
 
===================================================
Parlay #3
===================================================
Selection 1:
Selection 2: Mitrione/ De Fries Under 1.5 $1.69
===================================================
Price: $2.84

Parlay Triples

===================================================
Parlay #4
===================================================
Selection 1: Conor McGregor $1.67
Selection 2:
Selection 3: Tor Troeng $1.47
===================================================
Price: $4.12

==================================================

Parlay #5
===================================================
Selection 1: Ryan LaFlare $1.57
Selection 2: Brad Pickett $1.71
Selection 3: Tom Lawlor $1.59
===================================================
Price: $4.27

Parlay Double-Double

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Parlay #6
===================================================
Selection 1: Mousasi by KO/TKO/DQ $2.50
Selection 2: Conor McGregor $1.67
Selection 3:
Selection 4: Robbie Peralta $1.29
===================================================
Price: $9.05
 
A Puncher’s Chance

===================================================
Parlay #7- Why the Hell not?
===================================================
Selection 1: Mousasi by KO/TKO/DQ $2.50
Selection 2: Conor McGregor $1.67
Selection 3:
Selection 4: Brad Pickett $1.71
Selection 5:
Selection 6: Ryan LaFlare $1.57
Selection 7: Mitrione/ De Fries Under 1.5 $1.69
===================================================
Price: $92.29

Rotation Play

===================================================
Parlay #8
===================================================
Selection 1: Conor McGregor $1.67
Selection 2: Mitrione/ De Fries Under 1.5 $1.69
Selection 3:
Selection 4: Mousasi by KO/TKO/DQ $2.50
===================================================
Price: $11.85
 
===================================================
Parlay #9
===================================================
Selection 1: Conor McGregor $1.67
Selection 2: Mitrione/ De Fries Under 1.5 $1.69
Selection 3:
Selection 4: Pearson by KO/TKO/DQ $3.46
===================================================
Price: $16.40
 
===================================================
Parlay #10
===================================================
Selection 1: Conor McGregor $1.67
Selection 2: Mitrione/ De Fries Under 1.5 $1.69
Selection 3:
Selection 4: Pickett by KO/TKO/DQ $8.50
===================================================
Price: $40.29
 
===================================================
Parlay #11
===================================================
Selection 1: Conor McGregor $1.67
Selection 2: Mitrione/ De Fries Under 1.5 $1.69
Selection 3:
Selection 4:
===================================================
Price: $13.75
 
 

Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns

Tor Troeng $1.47 vs Adam Cella $2.75

These odds have slightly improved since the last time I looked and it would be great if Troeng could hit the $1.50 mark, but if not we can make it work. Head to head there is a lot favouring the Swede here and honestly speaking I think that Cella is getting an opportunity simply because he was on the wrong end of such a brutal knockout. Tor is Swedish and the UFC was looking to add another local to the card which makes sense and Cella works on multiple levels. He is noteworthy because of the knockout he suffered and if he wins its a good story and if not then the Swedish crowd gets to cheer one of their own. It’s a win win. For betting purposes Tor doesn’t offer a lot as a single bet, but he will give a nice bump to a parlay bet. For Cella he has limited experience both in general and against top level competition so I will pass on him for now and see how he fares here.

Best Bet: Tor Troeng $1.47 in a parlay

Papy Abedi $1.71 vs Besam Yousef $2.19

There is no way I was putting money down on Abedi, especially as the favourite. Yousef didn’t look bad in his debut until he got clipped and tapped. For Papy he has had his moments, but they have been brief. If Besam can survive the opening few minutes I expect to see Papy slowing down significantly and that should give Yousef plenty of chances to finish this fight. My play here is to hit Yousef with a moderate to small sized single bet and then be done with this fight. He has value, but this one could be ugly and I really have no intention of letting it wreck the rest of my betting card. The other play here could be to go take a piss or fly a kite, keep your money in your pocket/ account and then have someone call you when the fight is over. I look forward to all fights and will watch this one just as closely as any other on the card, but it is a risky play nonetheless. In the end I will throw some cash Yousef’s way simply because this card doesn’t have a tonne of playable dogs IMO.

Best Bet: Besam Yousef $2.19 single bet

Tom Lawlor $1.59 vs Michael Kuiper $2.40

I was torn on this fight as I originally was looking at Kuiper as my pick. In the end I stuck with Lawlor because a) his wrestling and b) I was finally able to find the footage of Kuiper vs Natal and Kuiper had all sorts of trouble with Rafael’s takedowns. Even though the pick is finalized thoughts of Moraga over Gomez, Assuncao over Easton, Yahya over Hirota and most recently Makdessi over Cruickshank keep popping up in my head as these were all underdog picks that I was originally on and for one misguided reason or another I opted to make the switch and it cost me. Let’s see if this fight will join those other thorns in my backside or not. Lawlor is an American trained wrestler and that is something that Kuiper really hasn’t had to deal with yet in his young career and that is a learning experience. Lawlor is the type of guy that is relentless with his pressure and should be able to break Kuiper down in close and score points with clinch fighting and takedowns to negate Kuiper’s kickboxing. The Judo of Kuiper is concerning, but like I said in the breakdown his striking is sloppy and creates openings for Lawlor to use his wrestling. I think that Kuiper has value and I will probably be making a small bet on him and for Lawlor he will be part of my parlays, but with caution.

Best Bet: Tom Lawlor $1.59 in a parlay and a small play on Michael Kuiper $2.40

Benny Alloway $2.55 vs Ryan LaFlare $1.57

Alloway is very fortunate to be still be with the UFC after getting dominated on the ground in his debut only to catch his opponent with a well timed front kick for the win. Based on that fight, his semi-final fight, and his 3 career submission defeats it’s hard to deny that Alloway doesn’t have grappling defense issues. LaFlare is making his debut and that has its own problems attached to it which does make this a bit of a harder play. I still like LaFlare based on the footage I have seen as he has a pretty serviceable ground game that should be able to exploit Benny’s shortcoming. I will use LaFlare on a parlay because he has some value, but if you are have a limited amount of bets you would like to make then passing on this fight is a considerable option.

Best Bet: Ryan LaFlare $1.57 in a parlay or a No Play if you are working with a limited bankroll

Conor McGregor $1.67 vs Marcus Brimage $2.20

Marcus Brimage has been a bet card buster in last couple of fights upsetting Maximo Blanco and Jimy Hettes, but I think his run stops here. He has benefited tremendously from a lack of execution on the part of his opponents. Blanco simply failed to attack enough and Hettes didn’t put enough effort into getting the fight to the ground in rounds 1 and 3. Some credit should be given to Marcus, but when his opponents did force the issue it was clear that he was having some difficulties. McGregor is a debuting fighter, but he is riding a wave of momentum and based on his in cage demeanour he seems like the type of guy that isn’t going to hold back despite this being his first UFC fight. The other reason I think that this fight will be different is because of the aggressive striking style that McGregor brings. Brimage seems to have a slight conditioning issue when he is pushed as we saw against Hettes. In that fight he was slowing down after the first round with his punches not nearly having the effect they did early on. Even if McGregor can’t get him out of there in the early moments of the fight, as Brimage slows down a knockout should become a greater reality. Further, if Brimage does go the distance with McGregor I can’t see him being able to keep up with the volume of strikes that Conor is going to unload. Finally, Conor isn’t known for his ground skills, but they are there and with Marcus having some vulnerability on the mat we could see him put on his back as well which should help him to score points. McGregor’s odds are on the rise and that is a great thing. I think a decent sized single bet on Conor works along with inclusion in multiple parlay bets. For Marcus, I am putting a lot into McGregor which is a similar scenario to his last couple of wins, but I still don’t think he has the tools to pull this one out.

Best Bet: Single bet Conor McGregor $1.67

Chris Spang $2.24 vs

I have been watching Amagov since he debuted in on the Strikeforce Challengers series and if the move to 170 pounds works out for him he has potential to make some noise. Spang is a very good striker, technical and crisp, which gives me some concern if Amagov gets a little too wild. Spang smashed Burrell in his final Strikeforce fight and while that could happen again I expect that Amagov is going to work this grappling in this fight to limit Spang’s striking opportunities. Amagov is a Greg Jackson product and we all know how game plan oriented those fighters can be. Amagov shot on Robbie Lawler almost right away and took him down which is what I expect to happen here. Spang lost in his Strikeforce debut because he couldn’t keep the fight standing and while he has been working to improve this area of his game until he has successfully shown it inside the cage I can’t back him on training alone. There is the risk that Amagov forgoes his grappling and tries to stand, but the talent gap isn’t that significant and the Russian’s use of kicks could help him to avoid Spang’s boxing. Amagov’s value is fluctuating and based on my Public Picks, 23-3 for Amagov, I expect it to move downward so get on him ASAP. I will be using him as a part of my parlays, but not all of them as I respect what Spang is capable of and don’t nee him wrecking my bet card.

Best Bet: Adlan Amagov $1.68 on a parlay

Michael Johnson $1.47 vs Reza Madadi $2.85

I picked Johnson in this fight, but most likely I will be passing on making a bet. I was concerned with how he would perform against Jury and although I picked him I suggested the right play based on value was a bet on the underdog and it turned out to be the case. I am not sold on Madadi enough to make a bet on him here as his striking leaves a lot to be desired, but his wrestling could give Johnson some issues. My play here is to sit back, enjoy the fight and hopefully add another tick in the win column without risking any money.

Best Bet: No Play

Akira Corrassani $3.85 vs

I like Peralta a lot in this fight. He has looked good in pretty much all of his UFC appearences and unless Akria has made some significant improvements since his debut, I don’t see where he can win this fight short of a puncher’s chance. Peralta can play the power game and look for the knock with his hands or he could elect to his his range striking and pound away with his heavy low kicks on route to a late stoppage or decision win. The only drawback to Peralta is that he really doesn’t offer a lot in the payout category. Most likely I will use him as part of my parlays, but outside of that I won’t be focussed too much on him for the purpose of betting. With all of the significant underdogs that have been casahing for the last few months it is hard to get invested in this heavy favourites beyond a parlay or two.

Best Bet: Small Parlay play on Robbie Peralta $1.29

Diego Brandao $1.47 vs

I have already talked about the scenario where I wanted to play and underdog and then change my mind and switched to the favourite and it cost me. Well here it is the opposite, kind of. I can visualize how this fight could play out with each man winning. If Brandao gets aggressive early he could put Garza away, but if he isn’t able to do so Pablo could keep him on the outside and earn a decsion win. Brandao has issues with gassing, it was the case against Elkins (your welcome) and even against Gambino he slowed in rounds 2 and 3. Against a veteran fighter like Garza I would expect to see this problem be exploited to the point that Pablo might drop the opening round but rebound to win 2 and 3. These are two realistic situations and for my money I like Garza, he is a tough guy to finish and has faced some elite level talent so far. At $2.90 he has a tonne of value and I feel comfortable putting a moderate bet on him. If you look at how Diego has faired so far in the UFC he was almost finished by Bermudez, lost against Elkins, and picked up a win against an underwhelming Gambino, not exactly the resume of a guy that should be this big a favourite over a veteran like Garza. I will probably also use Garza on a parlay or two, but the single bet is the way to go here.

Best Bet: Pablo Garza $2.90 single bet

Brad Pickett $1.71 vs

I have never been sold on Mike Easton and I still am so mad at myself for switching my pick in the Assuncao fight. Not much I can do now. Pickett’s value is going down so get on him ASAP. Easton is most successful against guys he can intimidate and get off their game with his pressure and power, but that won’t happen with Pickett. Against Bloodworth and even Menjivar he was able to keep them backing up and that gave him the upper hand. The reason Assuncao was able to change things was because he countered Easton everytime he came forward and eventually Mike started to hesitate which really put a damper on his offensive output. For Pickett I don’t see him as the counter striking type, but he is the type that will go forward and land with power and not be bullied into back pedalling. I like the way he gets inside and slips his opponent’s shots to land his own. Against Easton he should have the speed advantage along with a technical striking edge. I did take Pickett by decision, but I am waiting to see if there is a Picket by KO/TKO prop as it should pay over $4.00 probably closer to $5.00. If you can get that type of bet then I would suggest you take shot at it. If not then Pickett at anything over $1.60 is still worth your money for a decent sized single bet along with inclusion on your parlays.

***Update- I am seeing Pickett by TKO/KO paying out at over $8.00 on most sites- take a shot it is worth it.

Best Bet: Brad Pickett $1.71

Matt Mitrione $1.31 vs

This fight comes down to Mitrione’s striking against De Fries’s grappling as I don’t see either man winning this fight the other’s realm. De Fries is a decent grappler, but in his two wins he was unable to execute and his opponent’s put him away on the feet. For Mitrione he has had some defensive grappling issues, but his footwork and speed make him difficult to take off his feet. He is physically the better athlete as well which should help him to keep the distance with De Fries. Matt hits hard and so far when De Fries has been cracked by Miocic and Duffee he has pretty much shut down leading to the stoppage and that is what I am looking at here. I like Mitrione at $1.31, but I also think that playing him by knockout or the total rounds under 1.5 (2.5 would be a dream) are decent bets. For De Fries his two wins have come over fellow British fighters who were on the same level as the guys he was fighting on the regional circuit so until he shows that he can hang against UFC level guys he is a no play for me.

Best Bet: Matt Mitrione $1.31

Ross Pearson $1.27 vs

I picked Couture in his last fight vs Noons and although I was happy to get the win, I felt the decisionwas wrong. Couture had trouble with the power punching of Duarte and then with Noons and I see no reason not to believe that he won’t get backed off by Pearson’s power. Pearson looked good against Sotiropoulos at 155 and I think that is where he is best suited with his power and speed. His keys to victory are to keep moving forward and land with power/ regularity, but be mindful of Couture’s grappling. Couture has really shown the ability to get inside and land takedowns when he needs them against a tough opponent and I think this will be the case here as well. As far as price goes Pearson doesn’t offer a lot as a heavy fav, but Under 2.5 rounds is paying in the $2.20 -$2.40 range which seems tempting. I haven’t been impressed with how Couture was reacting when Noons hurt him so I think Pearson could put him away if he get’s him hurt.

Best Bet: Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.20

Gegard Mousasi $1.06 vs Ilir Latifi $11.42

This fight is a no play for me. Mousasi doesn’t offer anything unless he gets over $1.20 and considering he isn’t even sitting at $1.10 right now I just don’t see it happening. Latifi does have some decent looking wrestling, but the level of competition he was facing is probably making him look better then he is. If he could get inside and score some takedowns on Mousasi he could steal a round or two, but I just don’t see him doing for a full 5 rounds without Mousasi putting him out. As far as betting on Latifi is concerned, he pays great, but unless you have some extra bank roll that you can part with almost no chance of getting it back, leave this fight alone. If there is an betting prop that might mildly intrigue me is Mousasi by submission. I haven’t seen the odds posted yet, but it might be worth a look. Mousasi has been working on his wrestling/ submission game as we saw against OSP and Kyle and he may look to showcase what he can do on the mat. If you can get it over $1.50 then consider playing it. Check back later for an update if the prop does get posted.

****Update- I am seeing Mousasi paying $2.50 on some sites to win by knockout, that is my play- a tonne of value, take it AND RUN!

Best Bet: Gegard Mousasi by KO/TKO/DQ $2.50

 

 


Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1. Gegard Mousasi $1.06

2. Brad Pickett $1.71

3.

4. Ross Pearson $1.27

5. Conor McGregor $1.67

====================

6. Matt Mitrione $1.31

7.

8. Tor Troeng $1.47

9. Pablo Garza $2.90

10. Tom Lawlor $1.59

11. Ryan LaFlare $1.57

12. Michael Johnson $1.47

13. Besam Yousef $2.19

-Purchase the $5 Bet Pack to get my rankings for the entire event + my non-predicted Top 5 Value Plays


Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. Gegard Mousasi by KO/TKO/DQ $2.50 His opponent has cut over 20 pounds in 3 days. That alone leads me to believe he will struggle to go beyond 2 rounds, and unless Mousasi does try to submit him the KO/TKO is a great play and I am shocked at the value that is being offered here. Take it ASAP!
2. Brad Pickett $1.71 Pickett’s price is dropping,but I still like him here. He should be the better fighter and unless he gets careless this is his fight to win.
3. Pablo Garza $2.90 Garza is a test for anyone in the 145 pound division and when you can get this type of value for him against a someone who has some flaws like Diego does you have to jump on it.
4. Conor McGregor $1.67 I was hoping he would pay more, but he still has value and should take this fight.
5. Besam Yousef $2.19 I can’t bet on Abedi as a fav. and Yousef has the tools to win this bout, so we might as well be on the right side of the money.

The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

  • Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
  • I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.

Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. Chris Spang $2.24 Spang is a dangerous striker and only needs once chance and if Amagov opts not to use his grappling Spang will have plenty of oppurtunities to unload.
2. Michael Kuiper $2.40 Lawlor is a tough test for any young fighter and if Kuiper can keep him range and avoid spending too much time on his back he could pick up the W.
3. Reza Madadi $2.85 Johnson’s issues with defensive grappling could entice me into making a small bet on Madadi, especially if his price continues upwards.
4. No Play
5. No Play

The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.


Prop Bets-

Marcus Brimage/ Conor McGregor Total Rounds Under 2.5Both guys have knockout power which could end this fight at any point in time. I was really impressed with what I saw from McGregor and my initial assessment is that he is going to be a stone cold killer in the UFC and it starts here. Play the Under.

Robbie Peralta/ Akira Corassani Total Rounds Under 2.5- This play is 100% based on what I think Peralta is capable of, but Akria is capable of scoring a knockout if he can land flush. Either way I don’t anticipate his fight going too deep. Play the Under.

Pablo Garza to Win by Decision $3.90- I really don’t expect to see Garza tapping or KOing Bradao, instead I expect him to try and drag the Brazilian into the deep waters and try to push his gas tank. If he is going to win this fight it will be most likely on the judges scorecards, so take the big increase in value.

Matt Mitrione/ Phil De Fries Total Rounds Under 1.5 $1.69- Mitrione should be able to carry the flow with his striking and eventually find a home for his power shots in a similar fashion to what Miocic and Duffee did against De Fries. Take the Under.

Brad Pickett to Win by KO/TKO/DQ $8.50- Pickett has power and can hurt anyone he is able to connect flush with. I am not saying that this is a guaranteed bet, but the value is way to good to pass up. Easton was thrown off by the power Assuncao was packing, wait until he gets a taste of One Punch Pickett.

Ross Pearson to Win by KO/TKO/DQ $3.46- Having seen the odds now I am seriously considering making a 3 fight parlay with Pearson/Pickett/ and Mousasi all by Knockout- wow the payout! I don’t like the way that Couture reacts when he gets hit, seem to back off and Noons did nearly finish him. Pearson has go away power, he will put him away if he lands.

Gegard Mousasi by KO/TKO/DQ $2.50- Really? I figured this would be somewhere around the $1.40 mark at best and anywhere above $1.70 is still a good play. He may look to take him to the ground and submit him, but this fight isn’t going the distance so why not.