UFC on Fuel TV 8 Post Fight Results, Review, & Bet Pack

The UFC on Fuel TV 8 card brought many great fights, but it will be the main event that goes down as the most important moment of this event. The back and forth war between Wanderlei Silva and Brian Stann will go down as a fight of the year candidate. The Saitama Super Arena was only half filled for this event, but the people of Japan provided plenty of noise to make up for it. No submissions victories occurred at this event so there was no submission of the night, but KO of the night was awarded twice to Mark Hunt and Wanderlei Silva, while fight of the night of course went to Brian Stann and Wanderlei Silva.

Facebook Prelims

  • 170 lbs. – Marcelo Guimaraes (1-0 UFC) vs. Hyun Gyu Lim (0-0 UFC) – Lim via KO

Guimaraes was able to secure a couple of takedowns and land some good punches, but once Lim found his range he put a hurting on Guimaraes and landed a vicious knee for the knockout.

  • 135 lbs. – Alex Caceres (3-3 UFC) vs. Kyung Ho Kang (0-0 UFC) – Caceres via S. decision

Kang was able to control Caceres in the first round with his grappling. The 3rd round went to Caceres, which left the 2nd as the deciding round and it was back and forth, so this was a controversial win.

  • 155 lbs. – Cristiano Marcello (1-1 UFC) vs. Kazuki Tokudome (0-0 UFC) – Tokudome via U. decision

This was fight of the night caliber as both fighters came out swinging hard and landed punches, kicks and knees. Tokudome was able to slame Marcello several times and controlled most of the grappling.

  • 135 lbs. – Takeya Mizugaki (3-2 UFC) vs. Bryan Caraway (2-0 UFC) – Mizugaki via S. decision

Mizugaki was able to win rounds 1 and 3 by controlling the striking and stuffing the majority of Caraway’s takedowns. Caraway showed a lot of heart though by winning the 2nd and never quitting.

  • 185 lbs. – Riki Fukuda (2-2 UFC) vs. Brad Tavares (4-1 UFC) – Tavares via U. decision

Both fighters were landed strikes in this fight and Fukuda was able to get 2 takedowns on Tavares in the 1st round, but Tavares stuffed most of his attempts and landed better combinations.

FX Main Card

  • 170 lbs. – Dong Hyun Kim (7-2-1 UFC) vs. Siyar Bahadurzada (1-0 UFC) – Kim via U. decision

Bahadurzada wasn’t able to land that KO punch like he did on Paulo Thiago, as Kim did an amazing job of getting takedowns and landing impressive ground and pound for an easy unanimous decision win.

  • 145 lbs. – Mizuto Hirota (0-0 UFC) vs. Rani Yahya (2-1 UFC) – Yahya via U. decision

Yahya won the 1st and 2nd rounds by taking down Hirota, controlling him and going for submissions, but Hirota came back strong in the 3rd round by stuffing Yahya’s takedowns and landing good strikes.

  • 185 lbs. – Yushin Okami (12-4 UFC) vs. Hector Lombard (1-1 UFC) – Okami via S. decision

Okami was able to control Lombard for the 1st and 2nd round with strong wrestling. Lombard came back strong in the 3rd by almost finishing Okami and winning the round, but it wasn’t enough to win the fight.

  • Catchweight 158 lbs. – Takanori Gomi (3-3 UFC) vs. Diego Sanchez (12-5 UFC) – Sanchez via S. decision

Gomi was able to land good punches and rocked Sanches on several occasions, but Sanchez also landed good punches and kicks while securing more takedowns.

  • 265 lbs. – Mark Hunt (3-1 UFC) vs. Stefan Struve (9-3 UFC) – Hunt via TKO

Struve did a good job of avoiding Hunt’s powerful punches early on, but he couldn’t control Hunt on the ground and he also couldn’t handle the striking of Hunt once he got tired.

  • 205 lbs. – Wanderlei Silva (4-7 UFC) vs. Brian Stann (6-4 UFC) – Silva via KO

This will go down as one of the fights of the year as both fighters dropped one another several times with powerful punches, but it was Silva who landed the finishing punch.

 


UFC on Fuel TV 8

*I have started to use Props in my parlays, if your book doesn’t offer the prop or won’t allow them to be used in a parlay- use a pick from my confidence list.

Parlay Doubles

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1:
Selection 2:
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Price: $5.78
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Stefan Struve $1.61
Selection 2: Kim by Decision $1.65
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Price: $2.66
 
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Parlay #3
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Selection 1:
Selection 2: Hector Lombard $1.53
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Price: $3.12

Parlay Triples

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Parlay #4
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Selection 1: Mizuto Hirota $1.87
Selection 2:
Selection 3: Caraway/ Mizugaki Over 2.5 $1.63
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Price: $4.42

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Parlay #5
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Selection 1:
Selection 2: Dong Hyun Kim $1.38
Selection 3: Diego Sanchez $1.38
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Price: $4.53
 
Parlay #6
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Selection 1:
Selection 2: Stefan Struve by Submission $1.83
Selection 3:
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Price: $9.07

Parlay Double-Double

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Parlay #7
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Selection 1: Caraway/ Mizugaki Over 2.5 $1.63
Selection 2: Kim by Decision $1.65
Selection 3:
Selection 4: Hector Lombard $1.53
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Price: $5.97
 
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Parlay #8
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Selection 1: Tavares/ Fukuda Over 2.5 $1.45
Selection 2: Stefan Struve $1.61
Selection 3: Takeya Mizugaki $1.45
Selection 4: Mizuto Hirota $1.87
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Price: $6.33
 

A Puncher’s Chance

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Parlay #9- Why the Hell not?
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Selection 1: Mizuto Hirota $1.87
Selection 2: Stefan Struve by Submission $1.83
Selection 3:
Selection 4:
Selection 5:
Selection 6: Kim by Decision $1.65
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Price: $66.62

Rotation Play #1

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Parlay #10
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Selection 1: Kim by Decision $1.65
Selection 2: Stefan Struve by Submission $1.83
Selection 3: Takeya Mizugaki $1.45
Selection 4:
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Price: $10.42
 
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Parlay #11
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Selection 1: Kim by Decision $1.65
Selection 2: Stefan Struve by Submission $1.83
Selection 3: Takeya Mizugaki $1.45
Selection 4:
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Price: $10.64
 
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Parlay #12
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Selection 1: Kim by Decision $1.65
Selection 2: Stefan Struve by Submission $1.83
Selection 3: Takeya Mizugaki $1.45
Selection 4:
===================================================
Price: $8.94
 

Rotation Play #2

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Parlay #13
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Selection 1: Caraway/ Mizugaki Over 2.5 $1.63
Selection 2: Hector Lombard $1.53
Selection 3:
Selection 4:
===================================================
Price: $12.12
 
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Parlay #14
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Selection 1: Caraway/ Mizugaki Over 2.5 $1.63
Selection 2: Hector Lombard $1.53
Selection 3:
Selection 4: Mizuto Hirota $1.87
===================================================
Price: $11.12
 
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Parlay #15
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Selection 1: Caraway/ Mizugaki Over 2.5 $1.63
Selection 2: Hector Lombard $1.53
Selection 3:
Selection 4: Stann by Decision $7.75
===================================================
Price: $46.04
 

Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns

Marcelo Guimaraes $3.35 vs

First fight of the night pits two interesting scenarios head to head. Guimaraes won his debut but looked brutal in doing so and really won because his opponent looked even worse. Lim on the other hand had to pull out of his debut because he wasn’t medically cleared to fight after draining himself so badly trying to make weight. Lim is a striker and will have the advantage on the feet. If the fight goes to the ground he will have to be very cautious if he is on top and if on the bottom his defense will have to be at its best. for Gumaraes he can’t toil with the striking its clinch and takedowns or it is going to be a long night. I picked Lim to win this fight but I will tread carefully until I see him perform in this environment and without a weight-cut related setback. Most likely I will use him in just a single parlay because there are better options on this card.

Alex Caceres $1.66 vs

I love this play and it ranks in as my #1 value play. If you intend to follow it keep an eye because I expect to see Kang’s value drop off as we get closer to the fight. Caceres has looked decent in his last few fights at 135, but Kang is just as big as he is, cuts a lot a weight which will give him a strength advantage if it goes well, and is a grappling first fighter. Caceres isn’t afraid to go to the ground with his opponents and had a lot of success against Figueroa and Damacio Page but struggled with Hettes, Semerzier, and nearly lost a split decision to Tezuka. With Kang look for him to put Caceres on the ground at will and keep him there for the duration of the fight or until Alex taps. I would suggest making your top single bet investment on Kang as well as working him into your parlays. I feel strong about this pick and think that the main reason that Kang is the underdog is because the betting public is going to back the fighter they know which is Caceres. With Kang almost unknown to North American bettors the books are giving them a push in the direction of Cacers by making him the fav with some apparent value. Don’t be fooled!

Cristiano Marcello $1.64 vs

My play here is based almost entirely on Marcello. He is a decorated grappler but his fight game is so rough and full of holes that I just can’t pick him, especially as a favourite. I felt he lost his debut and probably shouldn’t be employed anymore- most likely he won’t be with another defeat. Tokudome appears to have a decent skill-set and I feel based on the footage I have seen and info I have read he will be able to exploit Marcello and win this fight. I ranked Kazuki at the bottom of my confidence list because there is still so much unknown, but he hits #3 on the value list because anyone paying this well against Marcello is worth a play. I would suggest a mid-size single bet on him Kazuki or doubling him up with Kang for a decent little parlay. For Marcello I wouldn’t touch him with a 10 foot pole as a betting favourite, especially when you figure in the fact that he won’t get a hometown edge from the judges and could actually be on the wrong end of one if it goes the distance.

Takeya Mizugaki $1.45 vs

This should be a fantastic scrap. I really like Mizugaki and feel that he is the most undervalued fighter in the 135 ranks. He has never won back to back fights since signing on with Zuffa and mostly that can be attributed to the fact that every time he wins he gets tossed in with a top ranked fighter, but no here. I like Caraway but he is going to be up against it. He had a gritty win in his debut, but that came as a result of his opponent gassing out which Mizugaki will not do. Mizugaki fights at a consistent pace without over exerting himself and is effective doing so as we saw against Jeff Hougland. I have Mizugaki ranked #5 on my confidence list, I think he gets this fight done, but Caraway will put up a fight. I would recommend using Mizugaki in most of your parlays along with maybe doubling him up with the likes of Kang, Tavares or Hirota to create a solid betting duo. For Caraway I think he will be outclassed on the feet and struggle to get the fight to the ground where he stands his best chance. Even if he does go to the mat Mizugaki is no slouch there either.

Riki Fukuda $1.79 vs

This was a tough fight to predict as I really like Riki Fukuda, but at the same time I have a solid understanding of what he is capable of inside the cage having predicted his fights 3 times with a perfect record. For Tavares I have been just as successful going 4-0 so hopefully this trend of success continues. What this fight comes down to is the grappling exchanges. If Fukuda can score takedowns or at the least keep Tavares in close he should be able to grind out a win. For Tavares he needs to use his defensive grappling, circle away and do damage with his kick boxing. Fukuda isn’t nearly as effective when he can’t land his takedowns with success- see his fight with Costa Philippou for proof. I have Tavares ranked at #2 on the value list and feel you should consider a decent sized single bet on him as well. I would wait until bell time because I feel the odds will either stay the same or Tavares might move up in value a little. I wouldn’t be as aggressive with the parlays just because if he does struggle to fend off Fukuda you don’t want him dragging an otherwise successful parlay down with him. There is a prop bet I like in this fight, it probably won’t play that well but I am almost 100% certain it will hit, see the prop section.

Dong Hyun Kim $1.38 vs

This is my #1 pick and although Siyar as the power to knockout most members of the 170 pound division, I don’t anticipate that he will be vertical long enough to land. His debut was impressive, but when he has been forced to fight in more long and drawn out contests against grappling based opponents he hasn’t fared nearly as well. Kim is a beast. His only legit defeat came against Carlos Condit and I would have to assume he is driving hard to get another shot at Maia to prove that his injury TKO defeat was a fluke. At $1.38 Kim doesn’t promise a significant return on your bet, but he nonetheless he is still my most confident pick to walk away with a win. I would suggest using him in your parlays as a straight up win, but you could also look into betting him to win by decision. It isn’t that big of an increase (I have seen somewhere in the neighborhood of $1.58), but I still think it is a pretty safe bet. If your site doesn’t allow for Method of victory bets then consider the total rounds Over 2.5. Kim is a grinder and hasn’t picked up a win via finish since his debut. My only concern there is that Siyar might not have the grappling skills to defend for the entire 3 rounds, but we will see. Kim, Kim by decision, or the Over.

Mizuto Hirota $1.87 vs

I want to be upfront honest with you about this pick- I was recorded my prediction for the show with Yahya winning by submission and then went back and changed it right then and there. I have done this a couple times before, but this one felt very similar to when I picked Ross Pearson over Cub Swanson, did the prediction and then based on everything I said realized that Cub was the correct pick and he was. For Hirota to win this fight he needs to avoid getting taken down and use his boxing to picks Rani apart. Most of Yahya’s recent victories have come over opponents that in one form or another choose to engage him on the ground. I went back and forth on this fight and it really is a toss up as the odds would indicate. If you want to include it in your parlays that is fine but I would approach this as an add-on play. Put a parlay together and then duplicate it with Hirota attached, potentially making a smaller investment with the second bet. If you win your first parlay great and then if Hirota also comes through you have almost doubled your return. You could also use this approach with your ‘single’ bets. For example making a pair of $10 bets on Kang and Tokudome would net you returns of $23.80 and $24.30. If you then toss another $5 each down on Kang + Hirota and Tokudome + Hirota you would pull home $22.25 and $22.70 with wins (feel free to bet however much or little you would like, I just wanted to use small numbers to keep the math simple). Stylistically this should be a decent scrap, interested to see how it plays out. Go Hirota!

Hector Lombard $1.53 vs

Rumblings of Yushin Okami potentially losing his job if he doesn’t beat Lombard could serve to motivate the former challenger, but I don’t think it will be enough. Well that is depending on which Lombard shows up; the tentative and possibly injured one from his debut or the one that smashed Palhares. I expect to see the second one. Okami’s size could be an issue, but Lombard is so strong and should be able to negate Yushin’s attempts to hold him down like he did to Belcher with his judo skills. Lombard has some mid-level value circulating around the $1.50 mark. He is a nice building block for your stronger 3-4 fighter parlays and could serve as a tag team partner for the larger value plays like Kang or Tavares. For Okami he has the potential to win this fight if he can grind Hector down, but in order for that to work he will put himself in the path of Lombard’s power and that isn’t a good thing. I am considering a prop bet for this fight, scroll down to that section to see if I followed through as I haven’t done the props as of writing this.

Diego Sanchez $1.38 vs

Gomi has won 2 in a row, but upon a closer look he could easily have lost both of those fights. He was nearly stopped at UFC 144 and rebounded to beat a badly gassed opponent and then won a decision against Mac Danzig that really could have gone either way. Sanchez at 155 is a wild card. It has been a couple of years since he fought at 155 so it will be interesting to see how he does making the weight. When he did compete in the division he was a handful for anyone not named BJ. If Gomi can blast Sanchez with a big shot then he could do some damage but outside of Tyson Griffin Gomi hasn’t really shown that big one punch power in the UFC. Sanchez should be able to grind him down, outwork him and either stop him late or take it to the judges with a dominant performance. I was hoping with Gomi’s recent success and the fact that he is fighting at home again the odds would be a little closer but that clearly isn’t the case. I intend to use Diego on the parlays, but with him hovering well under the $1.50 mark and questions surround his ability to perform at 155 (not to mention how the West to East trip will effect him) I will have plenty of Sanchez free bets.

Stefan Struve $1.61 vs

Chin vs Grappling defence- sounds like the Schaub- Johnson breakdown I just did. I had a couple of people write me about that fight concerned about info they had heard about Schaub wanting to test his striking against Lavar. I finally told the last guy that wrote me that if Schaub didn’t shoot within the first 2 minutes I retired from predicting… I’m still here. Hunt’s submission defense is questionable, but Struve has to get him in a position to use it. Struve could opt to try and use his range for 3 rounds and outpoint Hunt but I just don’t see it happening. My biggest concern is that when Struve closes the gap to tie up Hunt is going to clip him. This is a puncher chance at best, but still a legit one. I like to play the percentages and go with Struve’s submission skills over Hunt’s ability to climb that ladder and land a big shot. At $1.61 or around that number Struve has some solid value and will make a nice addition to most parlays. I got burned playing prop bet too consistently at 157 with Schaub/ Johnson under 1.5. I felt that either we’d see a quick knockout or quick sub which was almost the case. I overlooked the potential that Schaub’s finishing skills sub-wise weren’t that refined and him laying on Lavar as he did was a real possibility. I am still going to look at the under in this fight as Struve does have the sub skills to shut this bout down and a Hunt upset via KO would most likely still get you a winner on the under.

Wanderlei Silva $2.90 vs

First question- how does Silva’s questionable chin change at 205 compared to 185? Some have suggested that his ability to take a punch will improve because he won’t be as fragile having not cut the weight, but the last time he fought at 205 Rampage obliterated him. Stann has power, maybe not Rampage type power but I still think it is enough to put a dent in Silva’s chin. Wanerlei’s best performance in recent memory was against Michael Bisping where he fought a measured style abstaining from brawling. Unfortunately when he attempted a similar approach against Rich Franklin he struggled to keep up and then when he did try to finish he failed and then gassed himself out for the rest of the fight. It appears that Wanderlei is in a tough spot either fight technically and hope that a chance to finish happens or fight aggressively and run the risk of either gassing out or getting KOed. For Stann this is a great opportunity to get a win over a legend and start a climb back up the ladder. I like Stann at $1.45 he has some low level value and his style will most likely drag Silva into the type of exchanges that he gets hurt in. Unfortunately the price on Stann by knockout is only a slight improvement on his to win straight up. It is probably still worth a look, but the one that caught my eye was Stann by decision paying out at $7.75- see the props section for more info.


Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1. Dong Hyun Kim $1.38

2. Hector Lombard $1.53

3. Diego Sanchez $1.38

4. Brian Stann $1.45

5. Takeya Mizugaki $1.45

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6. Stefan Struve $1.61

7.

8.

9. Brad Tavares $2.04

10. Mizuto Hirota $1.87

11.

-Purchase the $5 Bet Pack to get my rankings for the entire event + my non-predicted Top 5 Value Plays


Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. $2.38 Kang brings the exact type of grappling heavy game that has given Caceres trouble in the past. Additionally he is a big BW like Alex and that should negate his usual size advantage. Kang’s weight cut is my only concern.
2. $2.04 I’m 7-0 picking fights involving either Tavares or Fukuda, hopefully that trend continues. This was a tough pick and although I like Fukuda as a fighter Tavares just made sense based on how they matched up.
3. $2.43 Cristiano Marcello shouldn’t be a favourite over anyone fighting at this level, or at least not this big of one. From a promotional stand point I struggle to believe that the UFC brass would line of a debuting Japanese fighter at home against an opponent that was expected to dominate him. Follow the value.
4. Mizuto Hirota $1.87 Tough fight to call, I went with Hirota because he offers more as a fighter he has both grappling and striking skills compared to Rani who is a grappling specialist. Avoid going to the ground with Yahya and he wins.
5. Stefan Struve $1.61 I didn’t expect to see Struve paying this well. I think he wins this fight and at anything over $1.50 he is a bargain.

The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

  • Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
  • I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.

Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. $2.45 Hunt continues to defy the odds and if he does it again here it would be nice to make a little cash off it. I still think that Struve takes this fight, but Hunt has the ability to put a little scare into him.
2. $3.35 I am really surprised to be putting this one here. Guimaraes looked horrible in his debut, but at least he showed up unlike Lim. Lim cuts a tonne of weight and if there are complications again Marcelo could grind out a win. I pickled Lim but his low value will limit his inclusion in my bets, while Guimaraes is most likely worth a small bet on pure value alone. We have seen a rash of upset on recent prelims so keep an eye out.
3. Yushin Okami $2.70 Okami has the tools to win this fight and Lombard has gained a lot of hype back after just one fight. If Lombard goes head hunting and can’t track Yushin down Okami could counter strike and pick him apart at range.
4. No Play
5. No Play

The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.


Prop Bets-

Brian Caraway/ Takeya Mizugaki Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.63- I know I took Mizugaki by TKO, but Caraway is a tough guy to put away. Statistically Mizugaki has gone to decision 15 times in 25 fights with only 2 early finishes in his last 10. Caraway has a much higher finishing percentage but he will be hard pressed to put away the tough to finish Mizugaki.

Brad Tavares/ Riki Fukuda Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.45This one doesn’t pay that well but both guys have such a high number of decision on their records that it is hard to pass up. With a combined 20 decision in 35 fights and 8 of 9 going the distance in the UFC, play the odds and the over.

Dong Hyun Kim to Win by Decision $1.65Kim is a grinder and I expect nothing less in this fight. He has won 7 straight fights by decision and 9 of 16 for his entire career. My only concern about this play is Siyar’s ability to withstand the grind.

Dong Hyun Kim/ Siyar Bahadurzada Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.53See Above.

Hector Lombard to Win by TKO/KO/DQ- No price for this one yet, but I think it could be close to $2.00 as Okami has only be stopped a couple of times in his career. Lombard has power and will be looking to test that chin. Give it a play at anything over $1.60.

Stefan Struve to Win by Submission $1.83– This is the most likely outcome and although I considered playing the under the value is so low that I just can’t touch it after getting burned by the Schaub fight.

Brian Stann to Win by Decision $7.75- This is a five round fight which is why this number is so high, but Silva is coming off of a 5 round decision and has done it 3 times in his career. Stann is known for his knockout power but he has gone the distance 5 times in his career including his last fight. This is too big a number to pass by, even with a small bet you would get a large return.