UFC on Fuel TV 10 Results, Review, & Bet Pack

Josh Harper

UFC on Fuel TV 10 saw a lot of submission and some TKO finishes with only 2 of the 12 bouts going the distance. The TUF Brazil season 2 Welterweight Tournament Finals was determined as Leonardo Santos was able to defeat William Macario via submission to earn his spot in the UFC. Fabricio Werdum took out Brazilian hero Antonio Nogueira with a very nice submission.

Facebook Prelims

185 lbs. – Antonio Braga Neto (0-0 UFC) vs. Anthony Smith (0-0 UFC) – Neto via submission

Both fighters traded punches early on, but Neto was able to get his takedown just over a minute into the fight and once on the ground it didn’t take long for Neto to lock in a 1st round kneebar submission.

185 lbs. – Caio Magalhaes (0-1 UFC) vs. Karlos Vemola (2-3 UFC) – Magalhaes via submission

Vemola did a great job of avoiding submissions while landing ground and pound in round 1, but he got tired and Magalhaes capitalized by taking Vemola’s back and locking in the rear naked choke in round 2.

145 lbs. – Rodrigo Damm (1-1 UFC) vs. Mizuto Hirota (0-1 UFC) – Damm via S. decision

Hirota was able to keep this fight on the feet for most of the fight, but Damm showed improved striking which kept him in this fight. A 3rd round takedown/suplex sealed the split decision win for Damm.

170 lbs. – Ildemar Alcantara (1-0 UFC) vs. Leandro Silva (0-0 UFC) – Alcantara via U. decision

Alcantara was in control early on with hard strikes, but Silva found his groove later in the fight. Still Alcantara was able to land his strikes and get takedowns for the unanimous decision victory.

145 lbs. – Godofredo Pepey Castro (1-1 UFC) vs. Felipe Arantes (1-1-1 UFC) – Arantes via TKO

Arantes and Castro traded top control looking for the finish, but it was Arantes who was able to land hard elbow strikes to the face of Castro for the 1st round TKO finish.

135 lbs. – Raphael Assuncao (3-1 UFC) vs. Vaughan Lee (2-2 UFC) – Assuncao via submission

Lee landed some good strikes, but he wasn’t able to defend the takedowns of Assuncao nor was he able to escape from an armbar submission in round 2.

Main Card

145 lbs. – Rony Jason (2-0 UFC) vs. Mike Wilkinson (1-0 UFC) – Jason via submission

Wilkinson got his takedown early, but he found himself in just as much danger on the ground as Jason worked quickly to lock up an armbar triangle and added some nice elbow strikes.

170 lbs. – Erick Silva (2-2 UFC) vs. Jason High (0-1 UFC) – Silva via submission

High went for a takedown early and Silva used it to pull a switch and gain a dominant position of his own. He then worked very quickly to lock in a first round triangle armbar submission.

185 lbs. – Daniel Sarafian (0-1 UFC) vs. Eddie Mendez (0-0 UFC) – Sarafian via submission

Sarafian worked quickly to gain top control with a nice takedown and then locked up an arm triangle choke just 2 minutes into the first round.

205 lbs. – Thiago Silva (5-3-2 UFC) vs. Rafael Cavalcante (0-0 UFC) – Silva via TKO

Cavalcante landed some solid strikes that appeared to hurt Silva, but Silva showed his true heart by coming back strong and landing punches of his own eventually finishing Cavalcante in the first round.

170 lbs. – William Macario (0-0 UFC) vs. Leonardo Santos (0-0 UFC) – Santos via submission

Macario did well in the first round to stay at distance and land his strike, but Santos turned up the pressure in round 2 and got his takedown then locked up an arm triangle choke.

265 lbs. – Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira (5-3 UFC) vs. Fabricio Werdum (4-2 UFC) – Werdum via submission

Both fighters traded strikes, clinch control, and ground positions and neither was really able to gain the upper hand. Werdum then took control in the 2nd round and sunkin the armbar to get the win.

 


UFC on Fuel TV 10

*I have started to use some Props in my parlays, if your book doesn’t offer the prop or won’t allow them to be used in a parlay- use a pick from my confidence list.

Parlay Doubles

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Ildemar Alcantara $1.61
Selection 2: Rafael Cavalcante $1.54
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Price: $2.48
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: William Macario $2.91
Selection 2: Felipe Arantes $1.50
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Price: $4.37
 
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Parlay #3
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Selection 1:
Selection 2: Rodrigo Damm $1.65
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Price: $3.02
 
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Parlay #4
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Selection 1: Rafael Cavalcante $1.54
Selection 2: Jason High $4.54
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Price: $6.99
 
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Parlay #5
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Selection 1: Ildemar Alcantara $1.61
Selection 2: Felipe Arantes $1.50
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Price: $2.42

Parlay Triples

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Parlay #6
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Selection 1: Rafael Cavalcante $1.54
Selection 2: Felipe Arantes $1.50
Selection 3: Rony Jason $1.34
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Price: $3.10

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Parlay #7
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Selection 1:
Selection 2: Antonio Braga Neto $1.44
Selection 3: William Macario $2.91
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Price: $5.74
 
Parlay #8
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Selection 1: Antonio Braga Neto $1.44
Selection 2: Ildemar Alcantara $1.61
Selection 3:
===================================================
Price: $4.24
 

Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns

Antonio Braga Neto $1.44 vs

Neto is coming in with a lot of hype based on his accomplishments in BJJ competitions. Normally I would be concerned that the hype could translate to a MMA letdown, but Neto does have some solid MMA wins under his belt and he has tasted defeated before which is important for a still young MMA career. Smith on the other hand is a fighter I really really like. He has a lot of tools and knows how to finish, but at the same time he has suffered a number of stoppage defeats and the knockouts are starting to pile up. He looked decent in the first round against Gracie managing the distance well and winning with his striking, but after taking some damage to an eye that was all she wrote. Neto has better takedowns then Roger and should be able to put Smith on the mat early and set up a submission. Smith needs to do as much damage as possible and land with power every time he throws. Neto is right around the $1.40-$1.45 range on most sites and this makes him a worthwhile contributor to your parlays. If you are a little concerned with him making his debut (Smith is too, but has more MMA experience to fall back on), consider playing the Total rounds under. I will address that in the prop section.

Caio Magalhaes $1.91 vs

Vemola isn’t my favourite fighter as a fan or a predictor, not even close to the top 50 or 150 really. My reason for backing him here is that he simply has more tools to use then Caio. If Magalhaes can get this fight to the ground in an offensive position he could find success, but one thing is for sure pulling guard against Vemola would be a mistake. Vemola has lethal ground and pound with the capability of ending a fight with one overwhelming barrage. Basically we have two fighters; one that has been out for a year, has limited MMA experience, and limited UFC experience vs a guy that has been off for almost a year, has almost double the MMA experience, and a tonne more UFC experience to draw upon. The only major concerns for me in this bout are the home crowd advantage for Magalhaes and confidence of training with a partner (Rony Markes) who thoroughly defeated Vemola, but I just don’t see that being enough to make up the difference. For betting purposes I will use Vemola on a parlay as well as using him as part of midrange single bet. Don’t go overboard with him on the parlays because there are some decent valued favourites on this card that can make you profit as well. Diversify!

Rodrigo Damm $1.65 vs

Arguably one of the most disputed fights on the car, Hirota is the underdog but is getting the nod from my Betting public at 58%. Where I am writing this from I can’t access a site to check the odds (work related block LOL) but my best guess is that the line is moving progressively closer together. My best guess is that this line will be similar to the Hirota/ Yahya line that was almost even by fight time. I am on Damm in this fight for a couple of reasons. First, if this fight is close being in Brazil is a major advantage for Damm. I know many people will dispute this, but I think my reasoning is solid. First I believe that the reaction of the crowd helps to impact how the judges view the action. If the crowd gets fired up over a sequence of events when Damm is attacking the impact of whatever Damm does will have some added emphasis that the judges will pick up on. Additionally, the ref could be sway by a upset crowd to help bail out their fighter in a tough situation a few moments early then he normally would. I am not saying this is done on purpose, but it is just human nature. There is also the boost a fighter gets from fighting at home and the impact on a visiting fighter. I expect this fight to be close and that is why I am keying on the home field advantage. Hirota may be more technically sound with his boxing, but I like Damm’s 1-2 to do some serious damage along with his reach advantage to help him out. His kicking game could also play a role and this guy is dangerous on the ground which could be the deciding factor if and when (I hope) he elects to take Hirota down. Many will point at Mizuto surviving on the ground with Yahya, but the point is he still lost and would have thoroughly lost had Rani not gassed. I don’t expect Damm to be that dominant, but I do expect him to gain some big points with his ground game. The Higher Rodrigo climbs the more inclined I would be to throw down a decent sized bet. I do like when the public is backing a dog so heavily because at least on my site they don’t do that well (5-17 when 64% or less of the public is on the dog). I would think a midrange single bet is the play here along with using Damm on a couple of parlays. Again like I mentioned above, spread out your bets there are a number of decent plays on this card.

Ildemar Alcantara $1.61 vs

I keyed on the size mismatch here which is a little bit ironic. Silva is a regular 155er moving up to 170 to face a guy that has fought Heavyweights and Light Heavyweights along with spending the majority of his career at 185. The reason for the irony is that Alcantara debuted with a submission win over a pretty sizeable 205er. That being said Alcantara should also have a sizeable advantage on the feet and Silva’s bread and butter has been his grappling which might not be an option in this fight. If Silva can’t get Alcantara to the ground or Alcantara turns out to be the better grappler then Silva is going to need to step out of his comfort zone to get a win. Silva is a TUF Brazil 2 early round loser and took this fight on short notice realizing this might be his only opportunity to get into the UFC in the foreseeable future. You can’t blame a guy for this, but you can try to exploit the mismatch that is generated there. I wouldn’t be shocked to see this line drop a little so get on Ildemar ASAP. Playing him as part of your parlays is a good play but also spreading out your money across a number of decent paying favs including Ildemar should be something to consider for this card.

Felipe Arantes $1.50 vs

I was hoping this line would be a little closer and it still maybe before were all done. Arantes is a very good striker and his TDD has significantly improved. We haven’t seen him in a while which could create some ring rust, but also could lead to some improvements. For Castro he has a lot heart and is very aggressive but unless he can catch Arantes in a rush he is going to struggle to hang on the feet or get the fight to the ground. To put it bluntly I think Arantes wins this fight in almost all scenarios short of an unforeseen problem impacting his performance. I like Arantes for a solid single bet here especially the closer he climbs to $1.60. He is also a very good addition to your parlays with some solid value.

Derek Brunson $2.70 vs

Markes has been a wrestler killer with a dominant win over Vemola at 205 and a pair of wins over former NCAA Div I wrestler Aaron Simpson and Andrew Craig at 185. He is a strong guy and work his offensive grappling to put his opponent in positions that they aren’t familiar with. Brunson should be no different. Brunson is a decent wrestler but is still working to round out his MMA game which should create plenty of openings for Markes to exploit and win this fight. The biggest concern is how Markes faded against Andrew Craig in the third. He had done enough to win the fight in the first two rounds, but was dangerously close to being finished in the final frame. Brunson isn’t the owner of killer cardio either and Markes has had two other fights that he went the distance in and looked fine so the odds are that this won’t be that big of an issue. I expect this fight is going the distance and if this one is at all close the Brazil factor (see the Damm/ Hirota breakdown) should take effect when the scores are announced. I like Markes as part of my parlays and while I have been preaching diversity I think that including him on a larger percentage of your betting cards is an option. If he climbs, over $1.55 (which I don’t think is going to happen) consider a straight bet as well.

Raphael Assuncao $1.33 vs

I like Vaughan and if he does indeed lose this fight I hope they don’t cut him. Lee has speed, movement, and a diversified striking game working for him, along with a underrated ground game. The only problem is Assuncao is a veteran fighter with great countering skills that will give Lee limited openings to attack and the Brazilian’s ground game will make what Lee does on the mat looked like it is rated correctly. I expect to see more grappling out of Assuncao then what we have seen recently considering he is closing in on the top of the division and a loss here would be devastating to his push up the division. He should be able to recognize that the greatest gap in talent between him and his opponent is on the mat and remaining on the feet for long durations of time would create some unneeded risk. Assuncao doesn’t offer a lot as the heavy favourite, but still his numbers aren’t that bad that they wouldn’t serve as a bad addition to your parlay cards for the evening.

Rony Jason $1.34 vs

Jason hadn’t really impressed me with his striking until I saw some of the incredibly accurate power shots that he was able to land in his last fight and even more impressive was the frequency at which he was able to connect. Wilkinson is a tough dude, but he really hasn’t faced anyone on Rony’s level. Even more importantly, the Brit normally has his ground game as a key weapon in his arsenal, but that won’t be the case here and that shows up big. Jason doesn’t pay that great, but at $1.34 he isn’t the worst betting fav we have seen in a while and should be used to pad your parlay profit.

Jason High $4.54 vs

Big upset prediction here. Silva is a talent, there is no denying that and he looked decent at moments against Fitch but if you look at his performance as a whole it wasn’t that strong. He made some clear mistakes that cost him position and eventually lead to him gassing out and getting worked. So far he has looked great in fights he can end early, but the Fitch fight wasn’t the first time he has struggled in longer bouts. If High can avoid getting pasted and use his BJJ/wrestling combo attack he should be able to break Silva down in similar fashion. One key to his success will be his timing. Silva likes to throw a lot of spinning attacks and attack from a standing position (instead of moving), if High can time these attacks and change levels he should have plenty of opportunities to score takedowns. The combo of takedowns and top control should serve to tax Silva’s cardio and lead to High grinding out a victory. There is always the case that High gets smashed as he has in the past on a couple of occasions, which many people have pointed out, but he has significantly improved since those fights and should be able to limit Silva’s striking opportunities. I would suggest a mid-level bet on High, as his price is so high he doesn’t need that much of an investment to get that big of a return. Silva is still riding a lot of hype despite the Fitch fight and I do think he should be the favourite here but not as big a one as the odds have him. As a result, he is being overvalued and High undervalued, making High the right bet here.

Eddie Mendez $3.50 vs

As long as Sarafian is paying out at less then $1.35 he is a no play for me. I think he should be able to win this fight, but his value is too low and Mendez is a bit of a wildcard which makes this an easy fight to leave off the bet card. I think Sarafian is undersized for MW and would make a much better WW, but Mendez isn’t a giant 185er either. I would like to see Sarafian win a UFC bout before I start considering such a risk/ reward scenario as this fight presents.

Rafael Cavalcante $1.54 vs

This line is getting a little more enticing for Cavalcante, but could turn at any moment. Thiago Silva is a known commodity in the UFC and probably is more known to the betting public, but Feijao is the darkhorse of the division. This guys hits like a tank and comes to finish. He is one of the few men who has scored a knock down on Dan Henderson and if you can fire off a shot that drops Hendo, you can knock just about anyone out in the division if/when you land. Silva is tough and will relish an opportunity to stand and trade but the fact is he has less tools then Feijao and his chin is a bit questionable. Silva’s wrestling is alright, but his top game is his solid. If he can get on top of Rafael he could put together a fight ending series of strikes, but that is a big if. Cavalcante has excellent TDD (80%) and has faced better wrestlers (Lawal, Henderson, Romero) then Silva. My play here is a decent sized single bet on Cavalvante. I will have to double check the price (betting sites are blocked at work), but at anything over $1.50 he has value that will return a decent payday. I will also be incorporating him into my parlays and as well as doubling him up with a few other solid favs from this card. The layoff and post PEDs is a bit concerning, but I think his skillset will carry him through against an opponent that isn’t nearly as dangerous as he use to be.

William Macario $2.91 vs

I was pleasantly surprised by these odds as I did my prediction before they were set. I felt that Macario was going to open as the favourite and instead he is a pretty big dog. With that mindset alone I will be playing a large bet on Macario by himself. I think his striking is significantly better then Santos’s and his athleticism along with his sprawl will make it tough for Santos to get him on the mat. The cardio of Santos is a concern if he can’t get this fight over inside the first two rounds like he normally does, but I am willing to roll the dice that the younger fighter will make out okay. I also feel comfortable enough with Macario to play him as part of a couple of parlays teaming him up with some favs to maximize the payout potential. For Santos I just didn’t like what I saw. His striking is stiff and while his ground game is his go to offensive attack, he really didn’t impress me that much. This line should be much closer and could be so don’t wait get on it ASAP.

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira $3.10 vs

In an effort to keep this one simple. Werdum is in the prime of his career and Nog is not. Big Nog is a tough out for anyone, but this is a bad matchup for him. His striking and TDD have improved, but not on the level that Werdum’s striking has. Fabricio’s Muay Thai looked beastly against Roy Nelson, destroying the usual durable Big Country. Russow can also take a punch (see his Duffie fight), but Werdum made quick work of him as well which is commendable. The biggest problem for Nog is that he won’t be able to take this fight to the ground and most likely the combination of these two fighter’s remarkable ground games could cancel each other out leading to a striking battle. This scenario favours Werdum and he should be able to pile up the damage over a 5 round fight, especially as Nog slows. Nog’s recent wins over Herman and Schaub were good, but neither of those guys are on the level of Werdum. When Nog has faced better competition he struggled and even had issues with the striking of big Timmy Sylvia. I suggest using Werdum on your parlay cards, but nothing else. He wins this but his value is minimal and at HW all it takes is one big shot to change the complexion of a fight.

 


Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1. Rony Jason $1.34

2. Felipe Arantes $1.50

3.

4. Rafael Cavalcante $1.54

5. Ildemar Alcantara $1.61

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6. Raphael Assuncao $1.33

7. Antonio Braga Neto $1.44

8.

. William Macario $2.91

10.

11. Rodrigo Damm $1.65

12. Jason High $4.54

-Purchase the $5 Bet Pack to get my rankings for the entire event + my non-predicted Top 5 Value Plays


Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. William Macario $2.91 Considering I thought that Macario was going to be the favourite I think he is being undervalued here which puts him at the top of my list.
2. Ildemar Alcantara $1.61 Alcantara is a decent fighter and the fact that he is fighting a debuting short notice LW moving up to WW makes him worth the play especially as a solid paying favourite.
3. Rafael Cavalcante $1.54 The layoff is a concern but short of getting tagged with a big shot he should beat his opponent almost anywhere the fight goes.
4. $1.83 His number keeps going up and that makes him a more interesting play. Of the two fighters in this bout he is the more known element here and that’s why he is my play.
5. Jason High $4.54 Considering we haven’t seen High in the UFC in quite a while he drops on the list despite his huge price. Silva is also a wildcard- if he uses the Fitch fight as a point of improvement he could smash right through his High and back to hype-ville.

The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

  • Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
  • I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.

Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. Eddie Mendez $3.50 I feel pretty good about my bets so the non-winners list is short. Sarafian is too big of a fav. for someone without a UFC win. I think Sarafian wins this fight, but the value is with Mendez.
2. $2.85 I said I like Smith and if Neto falters this might be an alright bet to make based on value. Smith has striking skills, but that hasn’t translated into beating next level opposition. This is a bet to make only if you have the extra bankroll.
3. No Play
4. No Play
5. No Play

The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.


Prop Bets-

Antonio Braga Neto/ A

Felipe Arantes/ Total Rounds Over 2.5- Castro isn’t known for his lack of finishing ability, but he has gone the distance in both of his UFC bouts. Arantes has also gone the distance in all 3 of his UFC fights and 7 times overall in his career. Arantes will be mindful to avoid getting taken down and Castro will do enough to avoid getting knocked out. Play the Over.

Rony Markes/ Derek Brunson Total Rounds Over 2.5- 4 of Markes’s 5 last fights have gone Over and he has 5 career decisions including all 3 UFC bouts. Brunson went the distance in his debut and 4 of his last 6 have gone to the cards as well. Play the Over.

Rafael Cavalcante to Win by KO/TKO/DQ $2.45 Cavalcante has won all 11 of his career fights by knockout and Silva’s chin isn’t as ironclad as his record would indicate. Feijao to win straight up pays well so don’t abandon that play, but him to win by knockout has a lot of potential.

Rafael Cavalcante/ Thiago Silva Total Rounds Under 2.5 (1.5) 24 of their 25 combined wins have come by finish and this may promote them to push the under total to 1.5, but I still think this is a solid play if the price is right.

Fabricio Werdum to Win by KO/TKO/DQ $2.05- This odd pays less then I expected to but is still worth a shot especially with this bout pegged for 5 rounds. Werdum’s striking is better and when Nog starts to slow down his vaunted chin (that is already failing) will let him down again.

Fabricio Werdum/ Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira Total Rounds Under 2.5- HW fights rarely go the distance and are even less likely to go 3 rounds or more. In most 3 round HW bouts you get 1.5 rounds to work with, but what I am seeing around the net is that this fight is being set at 2.5 which is something you need to cash on. A 5 round or 3 round fight may change a fighter’s approach somewhat, but still getting that extra round for a pair of 265ers is a decent bet to make.