UFC on FUEL TV 10 Predictions- Kamikaze Overdrive MMA

Scott Johnson

The UFC returns to Brazil to both crown the next Brazilian Ultimate Fighter Champion and potentially move one of the countries premier Heavyweights one step closer to title contention. In the main event former UFC interim-champion and Pride legend Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira looks to continue his career revival and take one last run at the top of the mountain. Standing in his way will be the talented and multi-dimensional Fabricio Werdum. Werdum has always been a lethal grappler but his recent rise to prominence as a striker has lead to back to back one-sided victories over Mike Russow and Roy Nelson. With a thinning group of legitimate Heavyweight contenders the winner of this bout could jump right to the front of the line to tangle with the elite of the division.

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Also featured on this card is the return of often suspended Thiago Silva. Silva, a mainstay in the division since 2007 will be opposed by debuting former Strikeforce champion Rafael Cavalcante. Just like Silva, Feijao is coming of a PED related suspension that sidelined him for a year and cost him a submission win over Mike Kyle in his final Strikeforce appearance. Both men have the talent to challenge almost anyone in the UFC’s 205 pound division, but only one will emerge victorious on this night.

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The rest of the main card will be rounded out by a Middleweight bout between Daniel Sarafian and newly minted Octagon employee Eddie Mendez, a Welterweight clash between Erick Silva and former Strikeforce contender Jason High, and the return of the TUF Brazil winner Ronny Jason against Mike Wilkinson. The 6 fight main card will not be one to miss as the Brazilian crowd always creates an atmosphere of excitement and the fighters respond in kind inside the cage.

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The prelims will be headlined by an enticing Bantamweight battle between Raphael Assuncao and British fighter Vaughan Lee. Additional Brazilian competitors on the undercard include Ronny Markes, Godofredo Pepey, Rodrigo Damm, and the debuting decorate ground warrior Antonio Braga Neto.

115lbs- #1 Claudia Gadelha (13-2-0) vs #2 K. Kowalkiewicz (10-1-0)

  • Claudia Gadelha -321 (72%, 26 Votes)
  • Karolina Kowalkiewicz +295 (28%, 10 Votes)

Total Votes: 36

185lbs- #11 Vitor Belfort (25-13-0) vs Nate Marquardt (38-16-3)

  • Vitor Belfort -152 (64%, 18 Votes)
  • Nate Marquardt +147 (36%, 10 Votes)

Total Votes: 28

Don’t miss UFC on FUEL TV 10 and make sure to check back before the event starts to get all of your Kamikaze Overdrive predictions as they are posted along with 32 different sets of predictions posted by the competitors in Kamikaze Overdrive Prediction Tournament! Enjoy the Fights!

170lbs- William Macario (6-0-0) vs. Leonardo Santos(11-3-0)

What have they done recently?

Macario- 6 pro wins to start his career + 3 TUF wins

Santos- 5 fight winning streak + 2 TUF wins before losing in the semis

Key Victories

Macario- TUF: Thiago Santos- Dec, Tiago Alves- TKO, Viscardi Andrade-TKO

Santos- Mark Holst- Sub, TUF: Juliano Wandalen- Dec, Thiago Santos- Dec

Key Defeats

Macario- None

Santos- Takanori Gomi- Dec, Kazunori Yokota- Split Dec, TUF: Santiago Ponzinibbio

Physical Comparison

Santos- 3″ height advantage & 1″ reach advantage

Strengths

Macario- physical strength, takedowns, TDD, striking, knockout power (5 of 6 wins), GnP,

Santos- submissions (7 wins), top game, scrambles, experience

Weaknesses

Macario- cardio, inexperience

Santos-striking, physical strength, ground and pound

Prediction

In the finals of the second installment of the Ultimate Fighter Brazil we have a match-up of two fighters with vastly different paths to the championship bout. William Macario won his 3 tournament bouts to navigate his way through the bracket. Conversely, Leonardo Santos won his opening round fight do to a hand injury, followed it up with his only legitimate TUF win, and then was defeated in the semi-finals. Fortunately for Mr. Santos, his opponent in the semis broke his hand in their bout and as a result Leonardo was gifted an opportunity to the championship. Santos does have a sizeable experience advantage both in quantity and quality. He is a grappling oriented fighter with most of his wins coming by submission. On the show he continued his takedown centered attack, but was unable to score a submission or any other type of finish outside of the injury TKO. He has decent top control, but does limited damage from the position. He does try to advance his positioning in an effort to improve his shot at a submission and he is also good in scramble situations which will be important against Macario. Macario showed decent TDD in the tournament using a combo of physical strength and a good sprawl. With Macario being the shorter fighter it will give him an advantage as Santos will be forced to get much lower on his TDAs limiting the strength he will have on his shot. Macario has excellent timing on his takedowns, changing levels effectively and either driving his opponent to the mat or using the clinch to set up a body lock/ trip combo. On top, he only has one career win by submission, but he showed some nasty ground and pound including forcing a stoppage due to a cut. On the feet the edge lies with Macario. He has 5 career knockouts and showed decent striking skills in his victory over Tiago Alves landing a series of brutal knees and eventually finishing Alves with some heavy leather. When Santos was forced to trade on the feet he seemed much more tentative and stiff. He does have a pro win by headkick, but his continual attempts on the show to get his opponent to the ground is an indication of his comfort level on the feet. Macario is a physically strong fighter, but his cardio might be a question considering he has only gone to the third round once in his pro and TUF careers combined. If his cardio issues combined with his relative inexperience and potential for Octagon jitters impacts his performance he could fade, but those are a number of ifs. Look for both fighters to have made improvements since the show ended, but Macario earned his way into the finals, while Santos did not and it will show up here so my prediction is William Macario to defeat Leonardo Santos by TKO.

145lbs- C. Jose Aldo (26-2-0) vs #1 Max Holloway (17-3-0)

  • Max Holloway +128 (51%, 23 Votes)
  • Jose Aldo -141 (49%, 22 Votes)

Total Votes: 45

Main Card
265lbs- Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Fabricio Werdum
170lbs- William Macario vs. Leonardo Santos
205lbs- Rafael Cavalcante vs. Thiago Silva
170lbs- Jason High vs. Erick Silva
185lbs- Eddie Mendez vs. Daniel Sarafian
145lbs- Rony Jason vs. Mike Wilkinson

Preliminary Card
135lbs- Raphael Assuncao vs. Vaughan Lee
185lbs- Derek Brunson vs. Ronny Markes
145lbs- Felipe Arantes vs. Godofredo Castro
170lbs- Ildemar Alcantara vs. Leandro Silva
145lbs- Rodrigo Damm vs. Mizuto Hirota
185lbs- Caio Magalhaes vs. Karlos Vemola
185lbs- Antonio Braga Neto vs. Anthony Smith

 

>>>>UFC on Fuel TV 10 Prelim Predictions<<<<