UFC on Fox Sports 1: Shogun vs. Sonnen: Fight Results & Bet Pack
The debut for Fox Sports 1 couldn’t have gone much better with multiple KO and submission finishes as well as back and forth wars. The Boston faithful were loud like always and nearly sold out the TD Garden Arena. Dana White doubled up tonight and gave submission of the night to both Chael Sonnen and Michael McDonald, KO of the night went to Travis Browne and Matt Browne, while only one could be fight of the night and those honours went to Michael McDonald and Brad Pickett.
155 lbs. – Ramsey Nijem (3-2 UFC) vs. James Vick (0-0 UFC) – Vick via submission
Nijem attacked right away with takedown attempts and secured one, but Vick got back to his feet and locked in a standing guillotine choke for the early 1st round submission finish.
205 lbs. – Cody Donovan (1-0 UFC) vs. Ovince St. Preux (1-0 UFC) – St. Preux via TKO
Donovan brough OSP into the clinch and eventually got his takedown, but OSP quickly reversed Donovan and started landing heavy ground and pound to get the 1st round TKO finish.
145 lbs. – Manvel Gamburyan (3-5 UFC) vs. Cole Miller (8-5 UFC) – Gamburyan via U. decision
Miller used his reach well in the first round, but Gamburyan changed his attacked in the 2nd and 3rd rounds securing more takedowns and keeping top control to win a unanimous decision.
Fox Sports Prelims
145 lbs. – Diego Brandao (3-1 UFC) vs. Daniel Pineda (3-2 UFC) – Brandao via U. decision
Brandao hit Pineda with very heavy punches in the first round and almost finished, but Pineda never gave up. Brandao started to gas so he switched his attack to wrestling in order to get the win.
145 lbs. – Mike Brown (2-2 UFC) vs. Steven Siler (4-1 UFC) – Siler via KO
Brown pressed forward recklessly and Siler caught him with a nice uppercut and then finished Brown with some ground and pound for the 1st round KO.
145 lbs. – Conor McGregor (1-0 UFC) vs. Max Holloway (3-2 UFC) – McGregor via U. decision
McGregor used his kicks, straight lefts and wrestling to frustrate Holloway throughout the fight. Holloway showed lots of heart and fought hard, but McGregor simply out classed him in this fight.
135 lbs. – Brad Pickett (3-2 UFC) vs. Michael McDonald (4-1 UFC) – McDonald via U. decision
McDonald nearly finished Pickett in the first minute with his lightning fast punches and combinations, but Pickett fought hard until McDonald was able to secure a triangle choke in round 2.
155 lbs. – Joe Lauzon (9-5 UFC) vs. Michael Johnson (4-4 UFC) – Johnson via U. decision
Johnson out-struck Lauzon nearly 2-1 in this fight with his straight lefts, uppercuts and kicks. He dropped Lauzon multiple times in the first as well as landing nice takedowns in the later rounds.
185 lbs. – Uriah Hall (0-1 UFC) vs. John Howard (4-3 UFC) – Howard via S. decision
Howard used his strong leg kicks and left hook to win the striking battles. Hall tried to use his wresting gain an advantage, but Howard defended well on the ground and gained dominant positions himself.
170 lbs. – Matt Brown (10-5 UFC) vs. Mike Pyle (8-3 UFC) – Brown via KO
Brown went to work quickly with his punches, kicks and landed a knee and then some ground and pound to finish Pyle just 29 seconds into the first round.
135 lbs. – Urijah Faber (4-2 UFC) vs. Yuri Alcantara (3-1(1) UFC) – Faber via decision
Alcantara was able to get Faber’s back early in the first round as well as full mount, but Faber came back with a strong slam and then out wrestled Alcantara for the rest of the fight to win a unanimous decision.
265 lbs. – Alistair Overeem (1-1 UFC) vs. Travis Browne (5-1-1 UFC) – Browne via KO
Overeem landed several strong knees early in the fight and almost finished Browne, but Browne never gave up and got back to his feet where he landed a front kick to the face and finished Overeem.
205 lbs. – Mauricio Rua (5-5 UFC) vs. Chael Sonnen (6-6 UFC) – Sonnen via submission
Rua was never really able to get any offense going in this fight as Sonnen was relentless with his wrestling and ground and pound until he locked in a guillotine choke for the 1st round finish.
UFC Fight Night 26
In an effort to accommodate different styles of MMA Bettors I have compiled 7 different possible betting cards to help you maximize your profit depending on what style of gambler you are and how much money you want to allocate to each card.
Big Money Bettors- for players with a higher bankroll willing to put a lot of cash on the line to turn a profit and build a growing account, focusing mainly on single bets and well placed parlays.
Recreational Bettors- for players that will allocate a decent sized bankroll per event, but would rather spread out their bets and try and turn smaller investments into big returns with larger parlays.
For Fun Bettors- for players that are putting a little bit of cash on the line just to have a good time and have no problem playing a high risk parlay hoping to cash that big payday.
Big Money Bettor, Budget: $500=================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: Manny Gamburyan $2.35 =================================================== Price: $2.35 x Bet: $50 Payout: $117.50 =================================================== Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: Yuri Alcantara $3.29 =================================================== Price: $3.29 x Bet: $50 Payout: $164.50 =================================================== Parlay #3 =================================================== Selection 1: =================================================== Price: $3.30 x Bet: $50 Payout: $165 =================================================== Parlay #4 =================================================== Selection 1: Matt Brown $1.63 Selection 2: =================================================== Price: $2.77 x Bet: $100 Payout: $277 =================================================== Parlay #5 =================================================== Selection 1: Selection 2: Matt Brown $1.63 =================================================== Price: $4.89 x Bet: $100 Payout: $489 =================================================== Parlay #6 =================================================== Selection 1: Selection 2: Selection 3: =================================================== Price: $3.12 x Bet: $150 Payout: $468
Recreational Bettor, Budget: $150================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: Manny Gamburyan $2.35 Selection 2: Diego Brandao $1.44 Selection 3: Matt Brown $1.63 =================================================== Price: $5.52 x Bet: $40 Payout: $220.80 Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: Selection 2: Selection 3: =================================================== Price: $7.85 x Bet: $40 Payout: $314 Parlay #3 =================================================== Selection 1: Mike Brown $1.50 Selection 2: Selection 3: Selection 4: Matt Brown $1.63 Selection 5: =================================================== Price: $7.64 x Bet: $30 Payout: $229.20 Parlay #4 =================================================== Selection 1: Yuri Alcantara $3.29 Selection 2: Selection 3: Selection 4: Matt Brown $1.63 Selection 5: =================================================== Price: $38.29 x Bet: $20 Payout: $765.80 Parlay #5 =================================================== Selection 1: Matt Brown $1.63 Selection 2: Diego Brandao $1.44 Selection 3: Manny Gamburyan $2.35 Selection 4: Selection 5: =================================================== Price: $13.50 x Bet: $20 Payout: $270.00
For Fun Bettor, Budget: $50=================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: Yuri Alcantara $3.29 Selection 2: C Selection 3: Selection 4: Matt Brown $1.63 Selection 5: =================================================== Price: $38.29 x Bet: $10 Payout: $382.90
==================================================Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: Mike Brown $1.50 Selection 2: Diego Brandao $1.44 Selection 3: Manny Gamburyan $2.35 Selection 4: Selection 5: Selection 6: =================================================== Price: $17.40 x Bet: $20 Payout: $348 Parlay #3 =================================================== Selection 1: Selection 2: Matt Brown $1.63 Selection 3: Manny Gamburyan $2.35 Selection 4: Yuri Alcantara $3.29 Selection 5: =================================================== Price: $70.70 x Bet: $10 Payout: $707 Parlay #4 =================================================== Selection 1: C Selection 2: Selection 3: Diego Brandao $1.44 Selection 4: Selection 5: Selection 6: Mike Brown $1.50 =================================================== Price: $11.16 x Bet: $10 Payout: $111.60
Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns
Ramsey Nijem $1.34 vs
These odds are right where I expected them to be with Nijem as the heavy favourite, but I really like Vick in this position. The layoff usually would concern me, but I think he will have put the work in to round out his skills and show us something that we haven’t seen out of him yet. The last time we saw him, which was on the show, he had a far superior striking repertoire to what Nijem even showed in his last appearance and Vick has probably improved. The big question is, can he keep this fight standing long enough to make his striking a factor. He did get stopped in the second round via TKO off his back by Michael Chiesa, but other then that (including the first round of the Chiesa fight) he shutdown every takedown thrown his way. His defensive wrestling look serviceable, but I think that he has had plenty of time to build on it and should be able to sprawl and brawl his way to a win. Nijem’s striking defense is horrid and he is going to have to cover some distance to set up his wrestling while avoiding getting clipped, which is a big if. Just some food for though over the last 8 events in the opening 2 fights, the underdog has won 50% of the time. The reason I bring this up is because a lot of the time Facebook fights involve lesser known fighters which are harder for the books to cap and Vick is a perfect example of that. I would suggest playing a smaller single bet on Vick. He pays well at over $3.30 and you don’t to risk a tonne to get a big payout, additionally there are a number of good betting options on this card so lets spread it out.
Cody Donovan $2.75 vs
OSP is still very raw, but he is showing signs of turning that corner. With his physical attributes combined with the properly refined skill set he will be a dangerous fighter. Donovan did not look good in his last fight until the final moments when he caught and KOed Penner. Prior to that he got dropped twice trying to close the gap to set up his grappling game. Getting dropped twice inside the first 5 minutes of a fight is one thing, but getting dropped while executing one of the key aspects of his offensive game is another. Donovan’s grappling is the key to his game and to bring it into effect he has to close the distance. He usually does this by rushing forward behind his punches and then clinching up. Penner timed him and floored him, but couldn’t finish him. If OSP lands a big shot I don’t see Cody surviving the ensuing flurry. Adding to the distance will be the marked reach advantage that OSP will have and he also good at closing distance quickly which will allow him to fight from a further distance and for Cody to travel across an even greater gap. The long and short of it is that OSP is going to win this fight and he pays quite well at $1.44. I think he is a solid add-on to your parlay game and again, consider doubling him up with any of the other well paying favourites on this card.
Manny Gamburyan $2.35 vs
I really wasn’t sure where this fight would be odds wise. If you look at the Public Picks, the fans are favouring Manny big time. He currently sits at 83% of the vote, but there is still time for this to change before the actual fight. To put things into perspective, there have been 228 fights contested since I started the Public Picks section and no underdog has got more then 69% of the vote. Normally the fans are great picking upsets. When the public is 50-64% in favour of the underdog they have a 5-25 record, but they are a little bit better when they get into the 65%-69% range with a 3-4 record. I don’t expect to see Manny this fight by bell time, but I don’t expect him to settle below the 65% mark which is a little encouraging. Despite the layoff I think Manny will give Miller all kinds of problems. He is hard to take off his feet and that is the key to Miller’s success. I expect that Manny have some trouble working his ay through the long reach of Miller, but consider other, equally as short fighters were able to find their mark I expect Gamburyan will too. I think playing a mid-sized bet on Manny is the play here. He pays well, but again lots of option here so lets spread it out.
Diego Brandao $1.44 vs
Brandao seems to have got his, for lack of a better word, shit together. He look great on the show, pulled off the come from behind win against Bermudez and then gassed out against Elkins after a strong start. Since then he has looked pretty good and I think of Greg Jackson was able to turn Melvin Guillard around and help him to reach his potential. I like Pineda as a fighter, but I think that Brandao is just a little better in most areas. The x-factor is the conditioning issue of Brandao if Pineda can push the pace early. I think Brandao will be able to win this fight anywhere it goes and eventually submit his way to a win, maybe after hurting Pineda on the feet. Brandao’s value is trending down a little which is a concern, but I still think he is worth inclusion on your parlays. It is nice to see so many favourites in the $1.40 range, which is much more playable then the sub something sub $1.25.
Mike Brown $1.50 vs
Is Brown finished? No. Will he contend for the title again? I doubt it. Siler is a tough kid, but Darren Elkins wiped the floor with him using a wrestling based attack and Brown should be more then capable of reproducing that sequence of events. Siler was able to put up enough of a defensive front to avoid getting finished, but that was far from enough to win the fight. Brown’s last win came over Daniel Pineda, where he was able to put Pineda on his back with regularity and use his wrestling to ear the victory. Pineda did have some success attacking off his back, but he is far better guard player then Siler. Again I feel like I am repeating myself, but Brown is a solid favourite at $1.50 and there is good potential for profit using him along with the other well paying favs (you could mix in a couple of dogs to really amp it up) in parlays to turn a solid profit.
Max Holloway $3.21 vs C
I love and hate this fight so much. I love what both of these fighters bring to the cage and what a matchup of the two of them represents. I hate that one of them is going to lose this fight. Either Holloway will be on an undeserved 2 fight losing streak (I picked Bermudez, but felt Max was robbed) or McGregor losses in his second UFC appearance and people jump all over his ‘hype’ train derailment. Both guys are excellent strikers with improving ground games. The major difference that I am keying on is that McGregor packs a greater knockout punch then Holloway. If you look at the Holloway/ Schilling fight, Max brutalized the inferior striker but could not put him away over the full 15 minutes. He did stop Lawrence, but that win was more typical of a knockout by damage accumulation type victory. Conversely, when McGregor starts to land on his opponents, like Marcus Brimage, he puts them away. He has 12 wins by knockout, with most coming inside the first or at the latest 2nd round meaning that most opponents can only endure so much of his striking onslaught. Holloway gets hit a lot and that’s when he has the reach advantage, but here he won’t which should allow McGregor to land with regularity. I am not as confident in McGregor at $1.40 as I am in Lauzon, but I still think he wins this fight. I would think that using Connor in your parlays is the way to go and maybe consider doubling him up with Lauzon or another decent paying favourite.
Michael McDonald $1.38 vs
This is one of those fights where I had all intentions of taking McDonald pre-research and for a lot of the reasons that other predictors did. They keyed on his height and reach being similar to Eddie Wineland’s and how Pickett had trouble getting inside on Eddie. I can see that point, but Pickett didn’t struggle as much as we thought after the first round closing the gap in strikes landed. The other thing we should look at from that fight was the movement of Wineland- it’s very unorthodox. The way he moves when he attacks and defends is tough to deal with, especially when you are forced to close the distance like Picks was. Now with McDonald, he has a similar reach, but he uses a much more predictable style and not nearly as many crazy angles. Then if you look at the ground game of McDonald, the first time he actually faced an opponent with a competent takedown game, he struggled. Sure he defended some of the TDs, but still they were his ultimate undoing. If you go back to his fight with Chris Cariaso, McDonald was taken down by a guy who is still undersized at Flyweight, let alone Bantamweight. Pickett conversely amped up his wrestling against a very strong and formerly hard to takedown Mike Easton and scored some key takedowns in a close fight. Now if you take a few of those TDs and insert them in the Wineland/Pickett fight I think Picks could have stole the last two rounds in the judges’ eyes.
I wanted to explain this theory in my breakdown, but felt that it would fly over most people’s heads, but not yours. Here goes. McDonald just fought at the top or almost top (depending on your comparison of Cruz vs Barao) of the division, the top level of competition, lets rank that level 10. Prior to fighting at level 10, he fought a number of lower level opponents. Miguel Torres was arguably the best, but he was/is no where near is old form. I would rank him at a level 6. The rest of the fighters he had beaten come in below that between levels 1-5. I would place Brad Pickett around level 7, on the cusp of level 8. For comparison, Eddie Wineland would be #8 and Urijah Faber #9. Now the question is where is McDonald’s ceiling? Just because he got bumped up to 10 and lost doesn’t mean he is guaranteed to beat guys at the levels below 10 and above where he previously one. You get me?
I expect that this fight is going to be close and yes if McDonald wins, it won’t be a big shocker to me. But Pickett is the second best fighter that McDonald has faced in his young career and I think he has a tonne to offer McDonald. My biggest concern is that the Brit gets hit too much, but if he can work his takedown game I think he will overcome it. My play here is to play a medium-sized bet on Pickett and then set back and enjoy a great fight.
Michael Johnson $2.97 vs
When I heard this fight announced it caught my attention because I didn’t think that Johnson and Lauzon were at the same level, then when I heard where the fight was taking place I understood. Lauzon is a Boston boy and with this fight taking place in his backyard the UFC would love nothing more then to get the crowd pumping with a local kicking off the main card with an exciting win. Johnson has been submitted 3 times in the UFC and 6 times overall. Lauzon has won 18 of his 22 fights by tapout and is easily the most dangerous submission fighter that Johnson has faced. Even if Johnson keeps this fight standing Lauzon is more then a competent enough striker to hold his own and beat him on the feet, but I struggled to believe that this fight isn’t going to the ground early and often. I haven’t compiled by Confidence list as of writing this yet, but Lauzon is going to rank right at the top of it. With him paying in the $1.40 range it isn’t exactly a barn burner of a bet, but I still think he is a worth a look for a solid single bet. I figured that this odd would be much closer the to the $1.20-$1.25 range so at $1.40 we are getting a deal. Another option would be to double up Lauzon with another decent paying favourite like Chael or Matt Brown. I also think there are a couple of decent paying props available for this card as well, check the prop section for those.
I don’t want to spend too much time here. I feel that Hall should win this fight, he offers a lot of things that Howard has had trouble with in the past including superior technique and a significant size advantage. While I feel confident in the outcome, I don’t think betting this fight makes a lot of sense. Hall pays poorly compared to most other options, he is making his unofficial post-TUF debut, facing an opponent in their hometown, after 3 opponent changes- lots that can go wrong here. To top it all off Howard has one punch night-night capabilities. Stay away from this one and enjoy the scrap with no money on the line.
Matt Brown $1.63 vs
A battle of the resurgent veterans here and it should be an entertaining scrap with the winner get a well deserved push up the ranks. Pyle seems prone to taking damage- he got smashed by both Ellenberger and MacDonald and was getting beaten up by Rick Story. Even in his wins over Josh Neer and James Head he was taking some serious damage early. Matt Brown is not the type of guy you want to get into a slugfest with as he will just keep coming forward and try to break you. The submission game is a major concern. Brown has a history of getting tapped out and Pyle is very solid on the mat. I think Brown should be able to keep this fight standing long enough to do the damage required to put Pyle away. His range striking has been improving significantly and he is so tough at short distance especially in the clinch. Brown pays above $1.70 on some sites so shop around to get your money’s worth. My play here is a decent sized single bet on Matty, along with using him on a number of parlays as he has good value. Pyle is a crafty veteran fighter and there will probably be some back and forth moments in this bout, but the ‘Immortal’ one should emerge with the victory one way or another.
Yuri Alcantara $3.29 vs
Faber is the ultimate test for any fighter at 135 who might be in title contention and if you do happen to get by him you could find yourself in line for a title shot. So far only champions have been able to beat Faber, while solid veteran fighters like Scott Jorgensen, Ivan Menjivar, Takeya Mizugaki, Raphael Assuncao, Brian Bowles, and Eddie Wineland have all come up short. Wow, that’s a big list and the only one that has earned a title shot since losing to Faber was Wineland and he had to go through Brad Pickett and Scott Jorgensen to get there. I went back and forth on Alcantara winning this fight. He is a real talent, but he is also really untested at 135 with two short bouts against lower level opponents. Conversely his resume at 145 was solid with wins over Ricardo Lamas, Michihiro Omigawa, and Felipe Arantes. He did drop a grappling based decision to Hacran Dias which set off some red flags considering he is facing a strong wrestling. Having re-watched that fight twice it was a struggle for the much bigger Dias to take Alcantara down and work his top game. In this fight Alcantara is going to be on par or maybe even slightly ahead of Faber physically. We have seen Faber on more then a couple of occasion get his wrestling game completeting nullified making him a far less effective fighter- at 135- Cruz, Barao, and Wineland. The Wineland fight is the one I am keying on. Eddie is a decent wrestling, but not nearly as versed a grappler as Alcantara and he was able to shut Faber down. Urijah rallied and won that fight with his striking when Eddie tired, but I don’t see that happening with Yuri. I think this is going to be close and if it were in Brazil I would feel that much better about it, but still I think a medium sized single bet on Alcantara is the play. I will also experiment with Yuri in parlays potentially rotating him in with a couple other underdogs along side Chael and Matt Brown.
Travis Browne $2.59 vs
Betting on Overeem can be a scary proposition. I was on Bigfoot last time out and was just waiting for one of two things two happen- either a) he gets cocky and his chin gets cracked or b) he gets tired and his chin gets crack. I think it was actually a combination of the two that was his undoing. Going back one Bigfoot upset earlier I took Bigfoot over Browne because I felt Browne held his hands way to low and against a powerful veteran fighter who always has his hands chambered in the right position there was a high risk of him getting clipped. The knee injury took away a little big of that credibility, but still I think my point was served. Now you throw Browne inside the cage with the best striker he has faced to date. A fighter who is motivated to get back in the win column and erase the embarrassment of his last fight. He was looking good, very good, through the first 10 minutes vs Bigfoot and I think Overeem’s technique, experience, and power will be too much for Browne to overcome. If I was game planning for Browne I would tell him to avoid engaging Overeem too much in the early going. Use lateral movement and a lot of faints, along with a jab and a oblique kick. That being said, every time Browne tries to engage Overeem, unless he drastically alters his approach, he is going to be left wide open for a counter because he likes to hold his hands so low. As much as I don’t like how Overeem carries himself and nearly broke my larynx screaming when Bigfoot stone cold knocked him out, I just see him having too much for Browne with a vastily superior striking game and good enough grappling defense to make that a non-issue. I like Overeem in my parlays, he pays pretty well at $1.55 for a favourite and adds some nice boost to your bottom line. Check the prop’s section for a prop…if you are an avid follower you probably already know where I am going with this one.
Shogun Rua $2.28 vs
These odds are moving all over the place, with Sonnen going as low as $1.60 and as high as a $1.78. Shogun is a well versed fighter. He can compete on the feet, on the ground, in the clinch and just about anywhere else the fight could take place. Unfortunately, he is also a ticking time bomb regarding his cardio and when he will start to get tired. Chael Sonnen is serviceable in most areas, but he is elite on the mat. His style of aggressive grind it out wrestling should be incredibly taxing on Shogun and break him down. The major difference here is that Sonnen won’t be landing a big bomb on Rua like Henderson, Gustafsson or Jones did to really diminish him early. That means early on this is a dangerous fight for Sonnen because Shogun does hit hard and he is capable of a submission or sweep off his back. Like Matt Brown, Chael is prone to getting caught, especially from the bottom. If Sonnen can survived the early onslaught he should be able to put Rua on his back and drag him into those deep waters that are hard for the Pride vet to swim in. I like having a significant financial interest in the main event and Sonnen pays well for the favourite so I think a single bet would make sense here as well. I also think that he should be a semi-regular play on the parlay cards. There are lots of options here, play them wisely.
Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)
6. Matt Brown $1.63
7. Mike Brown $1.50
8. Diego Brandao $1.44
10. Manny Gamburyan $2.35
11. Brad Pickett $3.00
13. Yuri Alcantara $3.29
Kamikaze Overdrive Fighter Prediction Records
Event Prediction Record: 65-41-1 1NC
Best Prediction Record: Urijah Faber (5-1-0)
Worst Prediction Record: Michael Johnson (2-6-0)
Best Combined Prediction Record (at least 5 fights): Yuri Alcantara vs. Urijah Faber 8-2-0 1NC
Worst Combined Prediction Record (at least 5 fights): Mike Brown vs. Steven Siler 3-4-0
Mauricio Rua (4-1-0) vs. Chael Sonnen (3-2-0)
Travis Browne (4-1-1) vs. Alistair Overeem (2-1-0)
Yuri Alcantara (3-1-0 1NC) vs. Urijah Faber (5-1-0)
Matt Brown (5-3-0) vs. Mike Pyle (5-2-0)
Uriah Hall (0-1-0) vs. John Howard (2-1-0)
Michael Johnson (2-6-0) vs. Joe Lauzon (4-1-0)
Michael McDonald (1-2-0) vs. Brad Pickett (4-1-0)
Max Holloway (4-1-0) vs. Conor McGregor (1-0-0)
Mike Brown (2-0-0) vs. Steven Siler (1-4-0)
Diego Brandao (2-2-0) vs. Daniel Pineda (2-2-0)
Manvel Gamburyan (2-1-0) vs. Cole Miller (2-4-0)
Cody Donovan (0-1-0) vs. Ovince St. Preux (1-2-0)
Ramsey Nijem (4-1-0) vs. James Vick (0-0-0)
Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)
|1.||Manny Gamburyan||$2.35||This line is moving and some books still have Manny as the dog, so jump on it quickly. Even if he is at even or a slight fav he is still a solid bet.|
|2.||$3.30||The books aren’t nearly as successful setting lines for the lesser known guys on the opening fights as can be seen in that half of the underdogs have won in the opening 2 bouts over the last 8 events. Little is known about Vick having been away for so long, but his striking is miles better then Nijem’s. Sprawl and brawl- too good of a price to pass on.|
|3.||Brad Pickett||$3.00||I went into a lot of detail for this pick in my breakdown, but I think that as long as Pickett can limited the damage taken he has a great chance to win this fight. Not a 3-1 dog.|
|4.||Yuri Alcantara||$3.29||Lots of big odds on this card here. I like Alcantara and I think he is being overlooked in this fight big time.|
|5.||Matt Brown||$1.63||Some sites have him above $1.70 which is very generous. He edges out Sonnen here because he has looked far better of late then Sonnen and momentum can count for a lot.|
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
- Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
- I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.
Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)
|1.||$2.75||I think Brandao takes this fight in most scenarios, but if Pineda can make it gritty he could bring about Diego’s cardio issues.|
|2.||Travis Browne||$2.59||I think that Overeem will win this fight, but he still needs to prove himself against a top level guy and he is far from a bullet proof fighter.|
The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.
Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.
Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.
The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.
There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.
Michael McDonald/ Brad Pickett Total Rounds Over 2.5- There is probably going to be some value here with both guys housing some pretty big knockout numbers, but I think that both men will be strong enough defensively to take this fight the full 15. Play the Over.
Matt Brown to Win by KO/TKO/DQ $2.55- Pyle is pretty resilient, but I think that Brown’s brutal and exhaust attacking should be enough to put him down and out.
Alistair Overeem/ Travis Browne Total Rounds Under 1.5– One way or another this fight is ending via brutal knockout and that should happen sooner rather then later. Play the Under.