UFC on FOX 9: Johnson vs. Benavidez 2 – Review and Bet Pack
Demetrious Johnson turned the tables in significant fashion on title challenger Joseph Benavidez, scoring a first round knockout to retain his UFC Flyweight title. For all of the talk regarding the improved striking of Benavidez, it was the Champion that came through in impressive fashion using his hands to dispatch the fighter many feel is or was the greatest threat to Johnson’s title run.
While many champions have known to become complacent or willing to stick with what works after climbing to the top of the division, Johnson appears to be getting even better, earning his last 2 title defenses with a submission and now a knockout. For Benavidez, a definitive knockout loss and a 0-2 record versus the champion will prevent him from re-entering the Flyweight title conversation for a long time to come. This isn’t unfamiliar territory for Joe, as he went 0-2 under the WEC banner against Dominick Cruz while fighting as a Bantamweight. With this defeat, he may consider a return to 135 in an attempt to work towards a title shot should his stable mate in Urijah Faber falter in his next title opportunity.
A title shot is almost all but guaranteed for ‘The California Kid’ who took care of young and talented Michael McDonald, ending the fight with a brutal guillotine choke in the second frame. Faber’s striking look on point and he carried the majority of the action, despite most feeling he would be second best on the feet. Faber hasn’t been able to capture UFC gold, but he has taken care of every other challenge throw his way. He will now be a very attentive follower of the upcoming unification bout between the only men to have beaten him in recent memory; Renan Barao and Dominick Cruz.
-Abel Trujillo was just too much for Roger Bowling, landing some big shots early and never allowing Roger to get going in the fight. Bowling will most likely be fighting elsewhere next time out.
-Sammy Stout took home a much needed win, but it has to be a little bit disappointing that he could finish a clearly hurt and lesser striker in Cody McKenzie. Cody could be on his way out as well.
-Zach Makovsky made the most of his short notice opportunity and out worked Scott Jorgensen. A win over a current Top 10 135er could push Zach in to the Flyweight rankings.
-Bobby Green continued his winning ways in a gutsy performance against a tough foe in Pat Healy. Green may want to curb his over confident ways as he works his way up the talent ranks. Green versus Barboza would be a great scrap, giving the winner a major push.
-Edson Barboza took home the win in comeback fashion, after nearly getting stopped in the first round by Danny Castillo. While Barboza gets an ‘A’ for the comeback effort, it would appear that the Jamie Varner win was far from a fluke.
-Ryan LaFlare continues to impress, outworking the always game Court McGee. LaFlare will be one to watch in 2014 as he slowly climbs up the ranks of competition.
-Joe Lauzon returned to form defeating Mac Danzig in typical bloody fashion. Danzig has never found his stride in the UFC and could be at the end of the road with the promotion, but Bellator or WSOF should be ready and willing.
-Chad Mendes nearly capture lightning in a bottle again, hurting Nik Lentz early but he was unable to finish him. After that Lentz threw everything he had at the Alpha Male member, but couldn’t do enough to take the decision. Mendez wasn’t nearly as impressive, but he is most likely headed to another title shot in the near future.
-Overall I finished 7-4, 4-0 on the main card, which is the best record I have had over the last few shows. The bet packs produced, but at a low rate that really is still disappointing. Now we have 2 weeks before the next UFC event and what an event it will be to end 2013.
Information will be posted closer to the event when the official odds are available
The compilation of betting information listed below is meant to be used as a guideline only.
UFC on FOX 9
Big Money Bettor, Budget: $500=================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: Demetrious Johnson $1.80 =================================================== Price: $1.80 x Bet: $125 Payout: $225 =================================================== Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: =================================================== Price: $1.92 x Bet: $100 Payout: $192 =================================================== Parlay #3 =================================================== Selection 1: Court McGee $1.83 =================================================== Price: $1.83 x Bet: $100 Payout: $183 =================================================== Parlay #4 =================================================== Selection 1: Selection 2: Sam Stout $1.40 Selection 3: =================================================== Price: $3.23 x Bet: $75 Payout: $242.55 =================================================== Parlay #5 =================================================== Selection 1: Urijah Faber $1.67 Selection 2: Selection 3: Joe Lauzon $1.59 =================================================== Price: $3.72 x Bet: $50 Payout: $186 =================================================== Parlay #6 =================================================== Selection 1: Demetrious Johnson $1.80 Selection 2: Sam Stout $1.40 Selection 3: Selection 4: Court McGee $1.83 =================================================== Price: $7.61 x Bet: $380.50 Payout:
Recreational Bettor, Budget: $200================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: Demetrious Johnson $1.80 Selection 2: Court McGee $1.83 Selection 3: Sam Stout $1.40 =================================================== Price: $4.61 x Bet: $50 Payout: $230.50 Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: Selection 2: Selection 3: Joe Lauzon $1.59 =================================================== Price: $5.04 x Bet: $50 Payout: $252 Parlay #3 =================================================== Selection 1: Urijah Faber $1.67 Selection 2: Selection 3: Selection 4: =================================================== Price: $4.58 x Bet: $50 Payout: $229.12 Parlay #4 =================================================== Selection 1: Demetrious Johnson $1.80 Selection 2: Selection 3: Urijah Faber $1.67 =================================================== Price: $4.96 x Bet: $50 Payout: $248 For Fun Bettor, Budget: $50 =================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: Demetrious Johnson $1.80 Selection 2: Selection 3: Selection 4: Court McGee $1.83 =================================================== Price: $10.44 x Bet: $25 Payout: $261
==================================================Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: Urijah Faber $1.67 Selection 2: Demetrious Johnson $1.80 Selection 3: Joe Lauzon $1.59 Selection 4: Selection 5: Sam Stout $1.40 =================================================== Price: $9.37 x Bet: $25 Payout: $234.25
Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns
Darren Uyenoyama $2.97 vs
I am not usually a fan of backing debuting fighters as a favourite, especially when they are taking the fight on short notice. As a result of all of the $1.40 range bets I think that Alp might be my least favourite. But, I do believe he has the wrestling skills to keep Uyenoyama from taking the fight to the floor and if it does hit the mat with Alp on top, he can hold off the sub attempts and win the positional battle. On the feet Darren is improving, but I still give the edge to Alp. I will probably use him as a piece of a 3 fighter parlay, but nothing more then that until I see him at this level.
Sam Stout $1.40 vs
Cody McKenzie has a couple of UFC wins, which is nothing to sneeze at, but stylistically Sammy Stout is a bad matchup for him. Sammy isn’t as technical as we would be lead to believe, and his inability to alter and adapt a gameplan mid-fight is a concern, but I don’t think he will need to make alterations here. His high volume striking, solid TDD and get ups, along with a blistering liver shot should be more then enough to starch the former TUFer. McKenzie’s body is weak, we have seen him finished a couple of times with a brutal shot to the body and that was by guys fight at 145 and now 135, so a 155 should be able to replicate that type of power no problem. Just like a lot of the lower favs, look to double Sammy up with a higher paying fav like Johnson, McGee, or Bowling, or triple him up with another lower paying fav and either one of the guys just mentioned or a mid range bet like Healy, Faber, or Lauzon. A prop bet might pull some cash as well.
The winner of this fight will get a decent push in the division. Either a former top rank BW and WEC title challenger debuts at 125 with a win or the former 135 pound Bellator champion debuts with a W. Either way its a division that needs to build its upper ranks and that is what should occur here. I’m siding with Scotty J. He has faced the far better competition and outside of the elite (Cruz, Faber, Barao, Wineland) he has won. He has decent victories over the likes of Brad Picket (now a Flyweight too) and Takeya Mizugaki. Makovsky’s undoing in Bellator was bigger opponents that could handle his wrestling and that is what Jorgensen should be able to do. Scotty has a significant amount of pressure on him knowing that a defeat after cutting to a new weight class is a massive step in the wrong direction. He is a hard worker, this should result in him making the appropriate cutting measures and he takes this one. Based on the odds he should be either an add on to a well paying favourite or used as the third part of a 3 fighter parlay.
Abel Trujillo $1.84 vs
I was on Abel last fight, but I am switching gears this time around. I was impressed with Roger’s striking and his ability to land takedowns. Unless Trujillo has improved his defensive work greatly I expect to see him on the end of an even heavier wrestling based assault. If I were Bowling’s coach I would have him spamming takedowns from the get go. Put Trujillo on his backside early and keep him there. Bowling needs to focus on position over submission, and land some shots from the top. His cardio looks better then at 170, but its still not perfect. Even if he gets 2 rounds in the bag, if he gasses as hard as he has in the past at 170, Abel could put him away. It was actually Trujillo who appeared to fatigue more in their fight, which is something that I am hoping for here. Unless he gets clipped with the big knockout blow or gasses early or harder the Trujillo Roger should take this. He is as close to an underdog as I am picking on this card, depending on where you do your betting, so he will most probably be one of my bigger single bets for the event.
Bobby Green $2.26 vs
Bobby Green beat Jacob Volkmann- Fact! Bobby Green was badly out wrestled by Jacob Volkmann- Fact! Jacob Volkmann gassed badly- Fact! Pat Healy is a bigger version of Jacob Volkman with a better gas tank- Fact! Healy usually gets blitz early takes his licks before kicking it into high gear and smothering his opponent for either a decision or late stoppage win. If Green can hurt him enough early to earn the stoppage or at least take his legs away he can win, but if he can’t then he will get the same result as round 1 vs Volkmann, just longer. He will be fighting off his back and getting buried under Healy’s wrestling until either the bell goes or the tap, nap, or snap (most likely one of the first 2) plays out. Take Healy, bet him in a 2 fighter parlay that gets the number up over the $2 range (Faber, Lauzon, Bowling or LaFlare/McGee- I haven’t picked a winner as of writing this).
Danny Castillo $2.92 vs
I would be misleading you if I didn’t tell you that I at least put some serious thought into predicting Castillo to get his hand raised. Castillo brings a lot of pressure, primarily in the form of his wrestling. Barboza has had trouble in the best dealing with pressure. Varner kept coming forward until he put a stamp on him and Pearson lost a split decision that he looked more then competitive in and won in some people’s eye with an aggressive brawling style. That being said I don’t think that Castillo has the striking abilities of either Varner or Pearson that will allow him to keep up with Barboza and avoid taking too much damage on the feet. Conversely, Barboza fits the profile of the typical fighter that either beats or gives Castillo trouble. Anthony Pettis knocked him out, no shame in that. Michael Johnson KOed him after a terrible first round. Castillo does hold wins Anthony Njokuani and Tim Means, but those were far from dominant wins. When he couldn’t get the fight to the ground he was getting lit up in both fights, especially in the final round versus Means. Barboza is a better fighter then both, having beaten Njokuani and improved since then. If his striking is on point and his defensive grappling is good enough to keep this fight vertical more then not, he wins this bout. I think Barboza is a solid contributor to a 3 fighter parlay or could be paired up with Roger Bowling or Demetrious Johnson to bump up the pay out on a card with next to no upsets that I will be betting on.
Court McGee $1.83 vs
This was my final fight prediction and I elected to go with ‘Crusher’ in the end. It came down to the cardio issues of LaFlare. I expect that the first round will be close, but as the fight progresses, Laflare will slow down and McGee will pick up the pace. LaFlare has slowed in each of his first 2 fights despite controlling the majority of the action. If McGee is able to push him early, he could slow even faster. Additionally, he is taking this fight with a quick turn around so his cardio might not be at its normal level. I am putting some strong consideration into betting McGee straight up as one of my bigger plays this weekend. I am not on a lot of dogs, maybe 1 depending on what book you are using, but I think that Court is a decent bet to take this one home. Either use him as a single bet or pair him up with another lower paying fighter to hit the double. A prop bet should also make the cut here.
Joe Lauzon $1.59 vs
Of late neither man has really looked that spectacular. Lauzon lost a fight at home against a submission vulnerable opponent that he was expected to win and Danzig got absolutely obliterated by Melvin Guillard in a fashion that was hard to watch. If you take a bigger look at what each man has done over a larger sample size and it clearly favours Joe. I am not using MMA math, but more over examining how each man has done when stepping up in competition. Here’s the breakdown:
Danzig over his last 10 is 3-7
Wins over: Joe Stevenson, Justin Bucholz, and Efrain Escudero- none of which are still in the uFC
Losses to: 7 opponents, only one (Josh Neer), is still in the UFC, Jim Miller is the highest ranked opponent
Lauzon’s last 10- 5-5
Wins over: Jeremy Stephens, Jamie Varner, Melvin Guillard, 3 of 5 victories over fighters still in the UFC
Losses to: Anthony Pettis- Champ, Jim Miller- Top 10, Sam Stout, George Sotiropoulos, Michael Johnson- all still in the UFC
The long and short of it is that Lauzon has been competing and winning against better competition then Danzig. He looked terrible versus Michael Johnson, but he admitted that he was negatively impacted by the pressure of fighting at home, which is plausible. I also questioned whether a career of taking so much damage could be finally catching up with him, this fight should be a clear indication one way or another. Lauzon is better on the ground and is more capable of getting it there. On the feet this fight is closer, but I don’t see Danzig being so much better that he runs away with the fight and counter balances whatever transpires on the ground. As long as Joe doesn’t show up and play the role of a human punching bag, again, he wins this fight. He should be a parlay fighter, work him with Faber or Healy to take a solid bite out of the books.
Chad Mendez $1.17 vs
Nope. Lentz is too tough and while Mendes should take this fight, there is no value in betting this contest. I am considering some prop options, but I haven’t finalize anything yet. Check the prop section later in the week.
Urijah Faber $1.67 vs
McDonald is a great fighter and I really enjoy watching him compete and if I had more confidence in his ability to keep this fight standing I would consider a bet on him, but I am not sold on his grappling D. Brad Pickett took him down and whether or not this was by design leading to the finish, McDonald was put on his back. Faber has never been submitted and he is too strong of a top game player to think that McDonald can catch him in a similar fashion. If McDonald can remain standing I think he will out land Faber, but I expect to see Urijah shooting in and grounding Mayday for long enough durations of this fight to win the bout. The manner in which he was able to stifle former FW and talented BJJ Black belt Yuri Alcantara on the ground was impressive and should be an indication of what he can do here. Faber has only lost to the elite of the division for a reason and while McDonald is heading towards being elite and potentially a future champion, Faber should be able to hold on to his spot. He knows what is up for grabs- potentially one more shot at the title and a loss could end any hope of future UFC gold. I hope the line moves in his favour, but I am unsure. Faber has the name to attack money, but McDonald as an underdog may seem appealing enough to pull in money and move this line closer together. Only time will tell, but I will wait it out. I think Faber as either a single bet or a doubled up with another betting fav is the way to go here. He doesn’t offer earth shattering value, but it is still better then a lot of other options he have had to deal with in the past.
Demetrious Johnson $1.80 vs
Yes, Benavidez’s striking has looked better. Yes, he has scored a pair of knockouts in his last 2 appearances. Yes, he was probably benefited from working with a talented striking coach like Bang Ludwig. But, no, I do not believe that he has come far enough to beat MM short of landing a big shot and finishing him. No, during his 3 fight winning streak he hasn’t faced anyone with MM’s striking capabilities. His McCall win was good, but he showed nothing out of the ordinary and his back to back KOs came over less then top level strikers. The UFC knew this fight would happen again and they fed Joe B. a couple winnable fights that would generate a good enough winning streak to justify this rematch. Honestly, I think that DJ is getting a tonne of value here. He is going to be too quick, too technical, and too diverse for Benavidez to keep up with. Joe-B will do a heck of a lot of swinging and missing. If he can land a big shot, which isn’t out of the realm of possibility, he could either score the finish or at least greatly diminish Johnson’s capabilities and in the process level the playing field. With this card low on underdogs that I really like, I think DJ is going to be one of my biggest plays, potentially #1 straight up when it is all said and done. He would also work with a parlay bet or two as well.
Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)
1. Sam Stout $1.40
3. Chad Mendez $1.17
4. Demetrious Johnson $1.80
7. Court McGee $1.83
8. Urijah Faber $1.67
11. Joe Lauzon $1.59
Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)
|1.||Demetrious Johnson||$1.80||I just don’t see where Benavidez has improved enough to take the title. Johnson has fought better comp since their first meeting. He was the better fighter then and he is the better fighter now.|
|2.||$1.92||Bowling was getting the better of the first fight and just needs to avoid getting cracked. If his coaches don’t use a wrestling heavy attack then they should be fired on the spot.|
|3.||Court McGee||$1.83||Court’s cardio should be the difference here, as it is in most of his fights. LaFlare will slow down, as he has in both of his fights, maybe quicker. The judges better be on top of things here.|
|4.||$1.65||Healy needs to grind up King Bobby on the floor, keep him there and finish the fight.|
|5.||Urijah Faber||$1.67||Strength of opponent drops Faber down to #5, but I still think he holds onto his spot in the division with a win base primarily on his wrestling and top control.|
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
- Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
- I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.
Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)
|1.||$2.40||Mac is the only guy I would be mildly interested in playing, but I still don’t see him winning this bout under most scenarios if Joe shows up.|
The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.
Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.
Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.
The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.
There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.
Sam Stout to Win by KO/TKO/DQ- If you can find this prop (most undercards don’t get Win Method bets posted) take a shot at Sammy finishing the fight. It should pay well considering Sammy has just a single knockout in a long UFC career, but his body shots combined with Cody’s questionable ability to take a shot to the body should lead to a stoppage at some point.
Chad Mendez to Win by KO/TKO/DQ- Lentz should be able to make it a interesting fight early, but I think Mendes will either catch him early and put him away or break him down and end it late. Lentz has been slowing down later in fights and Mendes has stopping power and the better gas tank.
Urijah Faber to Win by Submission- Faber has a way of showing up in big non-title fights. Submission are also something that he has a way of pulling off, even against guys that are excellent grapplers. McDonald’s biggest issue has been his grappling and it really isn’t that much of a problem, but Faber is at another level on the ground.
Demetrious Johnson to Win by Decision- With a card short on major upset picks, any way you can add some value to your bets is something you have to look into. I don’t know how much it will increase DJ’s value, but it should get it close to $2.00. Joe B isn’t going to be put away, and Johnson will most likely focus on landing shots and getting out of the way of Benavidez. Take the Champ by Decision.