UFC on Fox 8: Johnson vs. Moraga – Results and Bet Pack

Josh Harper

The latest installment of the UFC on Fox has come and gone and the only Flyweight Champion the UFC has ever known still holds the belt. Demetrious Johnson retained his title in dominant fashion, but the same can’t be said for #3 rank Welterweight Rory MacDonald who played it safe and cautiously worked his way to a victory. Overall it was a exciting night of fights with Kamikaze Overdrive’s Scott Johnson finishing 9-3, while both panel members Josh Harper and Dillon Collins went 8-4. Round 2 of the KOPT 2 finished up and the 4 third round bouts are both set, check out the KOPT 2 page for the complete details. Let’s get to the fight breakdowns.

Facebook Prelims

135 lbs. – John Albert (1-3 UFC) vs. Yaotzin Meza (0-1 UFC) – Meza via submission

This fight was mostly on the ground and Albert was able to attack with submissions but couldn’t lock anything in. Meza took advantage of Albert gassing by taking his back and choking him out in round 2.

155 lbs. – Aaron Riley (3-4 UFC) vs. Justin Salas (1-1 UFC) – Salas via split decision

Salas landed many hard kicks and punches and even dropped Riley at the end of round 1. Salas was also able to bloody up Riley, but Riley showed his heart and fought hard right to the final bell.

FX Prelims

135 lbs. – Julie Kedzie (0-0 UFC) vs. Germaine de Randamie (0-0 UFC) – Randamie via split decision

Randamie was the much more effective striker for all 3 rounds while also defending some takedown attempts and not allowing Kedzie to do damage when she did get taken in.

185 lbs. – Ed Herman (7-5(1) UFC) vs. Trevor Smith (0-0 UFC) – Herman via split decision

Smith was able to land powerful punches that rocked Herman in the first round, but Herman just kept pressing forward using his boxing, clinchwork and wrestling to secure a split decision victory.

155 lbs. – Yves Edwards (10-7 UFC) vs. Daron Cruickshank (2-1 UFC) – Cruickshank via split decision

Both fighters were able to land good punches and kicks throughout the fight, but Cruickshank landed some really hard kicks that were likely the difference for the judges.

155 lbs. – Mac Danzig (5-6 UFC) vs. Melvin Guillard (11-7 UFC) – Guillard via TKO

Danzig tried to push the pace on Guillard by walking him down, but Guillard used his jab very well and his speed was truly the difference and what allowed him to get the TKO finish in round 2.

155 lbs. – Danny Castillo (5-2 UFC) vs. Tim Means (2-1 UFC) – Castillo via unanimous decision

Means worked hard to defend takedowns while also landing punches and knees, but Castillo kept pressing for the takedown and held top control enough to win a decision.

155 lbs. – Michael Chiesa (2-0 UFC) vs. Jorge Masvidal (1-0 UFC) – Masvidal via submission

This fight was back and forth but Masvidal’s striking was much better and he surprised Chiesa with some very strong grappling that he used to lock in d’arce choke with 1 second left in the second round.

  

Main Card

135 lbs. – Liz Carmouche (0-1 UFC) vs. Jessica Andrade (0-0 UFC) – Carmouche via TKO

Andrade showed some decent striking and grappling skills, but once Carmouche got rolling she was hard to stop as she made her way to full mount and unloaded strikes until she got the TKO finish.

170 lbs. – Robbie Lawler (5-3 UFC) vs. Bobby Voelker (0-1 UFC) – Lawler via TKO

Lawler was a step ahead the entire fight landing his powerful punches and kicks. Once Lawler found his range it was only a matter of time before he got the finish and it came in round 2 with a head kick.

170 lbs. – Rory MacDonald (5-1 UFC) vs. Jake Ellenberger (8-2 UFC) – MacDonald via unanimous decision

MacDonald used his crisp jab and hard kicks to pick apart Ellenberger for 3 rounds. Ellenberger was never really able to get his striking going and barely attempted to take this fight to the ground.

125 lbs. – Demetrious Johnson (5-1-1 UFC) vs. John Moraga (2-0 UFC) – Johnson via submission

Moraga landed some good punches and got a takedown, but Johnson landed several good strikes as well as getting a number of takedowns before he secured an armbar in round 5 for the submission win.

With UFC on Fox 8 in the books the UFC will be heading to Brazil next weekend for UFC 163, as Jose Aldo defends his UFC Featherweight Title against the always dangerous Korean Zombie. Make sure you check back in later this week for all of you prediction needs. Check out the UFC on Fox bet pack posted below and make sure to buy your UFC 163 packs for next weekend.

 


UFC on FOX 8

*I have started to use some Props in my parlays, if your book doesn’t offer the prop or won’t allow them to be used in a parlay- use a pick from my confidence list.

Parlay Doubles

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1:
Selection 2: Daron Cruickshank $1.80
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Price: $5.58
 
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Parlay #2
===================================================
Selection 1: Germaine de Randamie $1.72
Selection 2:
===================================================
Price: $2.68
 
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Parlay #3
===================================================
Selection 1: Melvin Guillard $1.80
Selection 2:
===================================================
Price: $5.13
 
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Parlay #4
===================================================
Selection 1:
Selection 2: Germaine de Randamie $1.72
===================================================
Price: $5.33

Parlay Triple(s)

===================================================
Parlay #5
===================================================
Selection 1: John Albert $1.45
Selection 2: Daron Cruickshank $1.80
Selection 3:
===================================================
Price: $4.07
 

Parlay Double-Double(s)

==================================================

Parlay #6
===================================================
Selection 1: Justin Salas $1.45
Selection 2: Robbie Lawler $1.36
Selection 3: Melvin Guillard $1.80
Selection 4:
===================================================
Price: $11.00
 

Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns

John Albert $1.45 vs Yaotzin Meza $2.79

John Albert it a real wildcard; he has shown himself capable of hanging with some of the top fighters in the division, but at the same time he is also quite capable of getting himself beat through his own mistakes. Meza is far from an elite level fighter and has lost to far worse opponents then Albert. My take on this fight is that Albert should win it, but the risk reward is a major concern as the former TUF competitor will most likely see his value drop closer to fight time. On a positive note, the Public is currently backing Meza by a slight amount which is a good thing for back Albert considering the public has a poor track record picking upsets. I would consider including Albert on one parlay, but nothing to overwhelming. I am also looking long and hard at the Over/Under for this fight, check the props section.

Aaron Riley $2.70 vs Justin Salas $1.45

Betting on this fight is a hard sell. Riley is an experienced veteran with chin issues and Salas is an up and coming prospect that is still relatively untested. Complicating matters is the year off for Salas and the near 2 year break for Riley. Salas’s wrestling should be the most influential aspect of this fight, but if Riley can pressure him early and land some shots Salas could find himself in the same trouble that Tim Means had him in. I am looking at this fight in the same light as the Albert/Meza bout. The risk/reward situation isn’t good enough to consider this a valid betting option. If you do like to try and include every fight on your bet card to some degree, not always the greatest strategy, you could add Salas to a parlay that you’ve already bet once making him the gravy on top if he wins. Personally, I always holds $10-$20 back for a full card parlay. I have hit it a couple of times, but I never expect to win it so that is another option where I would include Salas.

Ed Herman $1.37 vs Trevor Smith $3.12

I picked Herman to win this fight, but I see plenty of potential for Smith to pull it out as well. Herman is the better striker, but he was against Jake Shields as well and that didn’t seem to play a role. Smith is a relative unknown which is probably inflating his price a little, but he did put up a good fight against Tim Kennedy early unfortunately fading late. He is going to have a slight size advantage and his top game is pretty solid if he can establish control over Herman he could grind out a win. I would like to believe that Herman will focus on defending the takedowns while working his striking at a distance to force Smith to shoot from an uncomfortable range, but Herman’s game planning has been from intelligent of late. The reason I still elected to back Hermy was based on his striking advantage, but more importantly Smith’s poor cardio showing against Kennedy. If this fight takes on that grinding and exhausting tempo that it very well could Smith could be spent by the end of round 1. Additionally, he has never gone the distance which makes him hard to back in a fight that he isn’t able to end early. From a betting standpoint the value here is with Smitty. He pays well and Herman has too many issues to be worth a look at this low of a price. So for my money Trevor Smith is the play for a single bet and Herman is a no play.

Julie Kedzie $2.00 vs Germaine de Randamie $1.72

Kedzie opened as a favourite and after a brief stay at even money; she has now slipped down to the role of the underdog. She has a marked experience advantage which is a big check mark in her favour and being a veteran coming from an excellent camp she should be prepared to exploit her opponent’s glaring weakness. She isn’t known for her ground game which is the primary reason I think she will struggle to dominate her opponent start to finish on the mat. De Randamie is poor on the ground and if Kedzie can put her on the ground with consistency it will be awfully hard for the Dutch striker to win this contest. That being said de Randamie has shown signs of improved TDD and her year away from the cage working at AKA should help her to further enhance those defensive skills. She is also a very big and strong fighter and cutting down to 135 should only enhance those advantages, if the cut goes well. If she handles the drop to 135 effectively and she can keep this bout vertical based on one or all of the previously mentioned elements then her striking and power should lead her to a victory. Kedzie is a decent striker in her own right, but this is going to be a tall order to match the Iron Lady on the feet. I like this fight, I think de Randamie is a good candidate for a single bet. Not one of your biggest bets of the night, but a mid-range amount based on the aforementioned ground concerns. If you are going to play this fight as a single bet then wait until right before the fight begins to make your bet. This is the type of fight that will probably see a drastic last minute line shift with de Randamie potentially breaking the $2.00 mark by fight time.

Yves Edwards $2.02 vs Daron Cruickshank $1.80

Late fight replacements have struggle recently which is not a good thing for Cruickshank. I have him here getting the win as the younger, more aggressive, faster, and better condition fighter. All of that could go out the window if he is unable to get things right physically in the shorten training camp. I took Edwards in his last fight, but said that underdog opponent had the better value based on his aggressive style and that proved to be correct. Yves tried to counter his way to a win and allowed his foe to continually land first and more frequently which didn’t sit well with the judges. Additionally, he tired late and was being pushed backwards which isn’t a good scoring technique. If Edwards could capitalize on the openings created by Cruickshank being too aggressive, but if he doesn’t and Daron is able to set the pace with his aggressive striking arsenal headlined by his wide variety of kicking techniques he will pile of the judge’s points or even earn himself a TKO win. I think that this fight is worth a single bet on Cruickshank. Mid-range is probably the way to go here, nothing too big, but make it worth your while to bet it. Similar to the fight above, this line will probably go through a number of changes over the next couple of days so keep an eye and pounce. If you don’t want to follow the line all week then wait until about 10 minutes before the fight starts to get the best potential value.

Mac Danzig $1.95 vs Melvin Guillard $1.80

Melvin, Melvin, Melvin…. you were so close to that title shot and then you shit the proverbial bed. Guillard was rolling and he appeared to clean up those nasty defensive grappling issues that were plaguing him. He came into the Lauzon fight a little over confident (a little hahaha) and now he has dropped 4 of his last 5. Toss in the issues with leaving one camp, joining another, then leaving, only to be rejected by his original camp when he wanted to come back, and we really have to wonder where his head is at these days. When he is on he is a tough out for most and there are rumours that he has found a new camp to work out of which could rejuvenate him. Danzig is a well rounded fighter, but he doesn’t do any one thing really well. He’s a good striker, but he gets hit a lot. He has a good submission game, but his takedown numbers are below average. If he can get this fight to the ground he has the ability to tapped Melvin or he could land one on his chin and test his ability to take a big punch. These odds like many others on the card are moving. Guillard opened as the dog but is now the favourite. I think this could change a little more before the fight starts, but I wouldn’t be shocked if that change further diminishes Melvin’s value. The public is currently backing Guillard at an 85% clip and fighters in this range usually fair quite well. I like an average sized single bet on Melvin here. There are a number of decent single bet possibilities on this card so I don’t think a big bet is the right move here, but something right in the middle. I also like this fight to be part of a parlay or two, but again make sure you diversify!

Danny Castillo $1.43 vs

My initial instinct, like many others, was to take Castillo based on Tim-Tim’s inability to stuff Masvidal’s TDs. But as I said in my breakdown, Masvidal’s strong striking played a role in his ability to get inside and get the takedowns. Castillo on the other hand isn’t nearly as gifted on the feet as Masvidal and this will make it harder for him to get on the inside of Means’s long reach. Additionally, Castillo is a much smaller fighter then Means and this will make it hard for him to close that gap as well, in a similar fashion to how Means’s first 2 UFC fights went. Castillo is a tough guy but his track record suggest he does better against fellow grapplers and lesser strikers, but not so much against guys with above average stand up skills. Means did step up and take this fight on short notice which is a concern, but I think that this line is inflated by Tim’s last performance. Most of the public will remember that, it wasn’t that long ago, and that is reflected in the Public Picks section with Castillo currently at 66%. Means is a better fighter then he showed in that fight and I am willing to back him here against Castillo. As I have mentioned above there are a number of decent single plays for this event so spreading your investments out is a good play so a mid-range bet on Means is the way to go. I also think considering him for a couple of parlays is a decent move, but nothing too crazy, spread things out.

Michael Chiesa $2.50 vs

Chiesa is a one trick pony and everyone has been waiting for him to come up short- this should be that time. Masvidal is a very strong striker with an above average wrestling game. He should be able to keep this fight standing and unless he makes a drastic mistake during a scramble or clinch situation Chiesa shouldn’t even get a sniff of a submission opportunity. The odds on this fight have been all over the place, but they appear to be trending down. I would advise using Masvidal in the majority of your parlays at anything over $1.30. He should take this fight fairly cleanly and while the reward isn’t huge I don’t see there being much of a risk that he will lose the bout either.

Liz Carmouche $1.18 vs

Move along nothing to see here. I am looking forward to this fight, but as far as betting on Carmouche is concerned, that’s a big No-No. If anything consider making a small play on Andrade. She is a decent fighter, but for the most part we haven’t seen her compete on the big stage. She could come in and blows the doors off of Carmouche, I don’t think she will, but if you are considering betting this fight make a small bet on the big underdog and then sit back and enjoy the a good fight.

Robbie Lawler $1.36 vs

This should be a decent scrap. Voelker made a good accounting of himself in his debut ( I felt he won although I had picked Cote) and Lawler is known for his hard hitting style. I expect that Voelker is going to stand and trade with Robbie and if he doesn’t Lawler should be able to keep this fight standing long enough to land that big punch to bring about the stoppage. For betting purposes, Robbie is worth inclusion on you parlay bets, but again his value is limited so make sure not to go over the top too much. If you have 8 parlay bets consider including him on 3 no more then 4. I have a prop bet that I am looking at for this fight, so check the prop section to see if it makes the cut.

Rory MacDonald $1.43 vs

Easily my #1 Value bet of the night. I like Rory, he is a great fighter with a great future but I think this is going to be a tough fight for him. He has never fought a guy with so much to offer offensively. Ellenberger is dangerous on the feet and equally so on the ground. If Rory is having trouble striking with Jake I don’t see him being able to score takedowns at will. Conversely, we have seen Rory taken down, twice by Pyle, and I think that if Ellenberger wants to wrestle with Rory he will have the upper hand. Outside of Condit, Rory hasn’t faced Top 10 competition yet and the big question is how will the young guy fair if/ when he gets tagged with one of those big fight enders that Ellenberger throws? Whenever you get a fighter with this level of talent paying as well as Juggernaut Jake pays it is hard to pass on him. Even if I didn’t pick him to win outright I still think he is right bet here. I would go with a decent sized single bet and also consider working him in a series of parlays with the likes of de Randamie, Means, Guillard, and Cruickshank.

Demetrious Johnson $1.24 vs

Title fight time. I have correctly predicted 8 of the last 9 UFC title fights (I took McDonald over Bara0) so I am feeling pretty good. Johnson is an elite level fighter with elite level skills. His size stopped him from winning the Bantamweight title, but at Flyweight he is in his element. Moraga has started 2-0 with 2 finishes, but I felt he was behind in the Cariaso fight until he caught the third round submission. He doesn’t have the speed to match DJ and unless he finds away to ground him with his wrestling (only 2 have- Pickett and Cruz) or catch him coming forward with a big shot. Dodson did have some success, but IMO Dodson is the only fighter in the UFC that can match DJ’s speed and that helped him to land the shots he did. As far as betting is concerned I think Johnson wins this fight but his value is pretty weak. I might consider using him on a parlay, but if you are comfortable with a few less dollars and one less fight to count on then leave him off your card. If your book allows props to be used on a parlay then I would suggest playing Johnson by Decision. He could score a late stoppage but his history of decision wins and the price increasing to the $1.55-$1.70 range depending on the site is worth a look. As far as Moraga is concerned this is a big step up in competition and although he pays quite well I just don’t see him being worth a play here against such tough opposition.


Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1.

2. Demetrious Johnson $1.24

3. Robbie Lawler $1.36

4. Daron Cruickshank $1.80

5. Liz Carmouche $1.18

====================

6.

7. John Albert $1.45

8. Justin Salas $1.45

9. Germaine de Randamie $1.72

10.

11. Melvin Guillard $1.80

12. Ed Herman $1.37


Kamikaze Overdrive Fighter Prediction Records

Best Prediction Records: Rory MacDonald (4-0-0 100%), Jake Ellenberger (6-2-0 75%), Melvin Guillard (6-2-0 75%)

Worst Prediction Record: John Moraga (0-2-0 0%)

Best Combined Prediction Record (at least 8 fights): Jake Ellenberger vs. Rory MacDonald (10-2-0 83%)

Worst Combined Prediction Record (at least 5 fights): Michael Chiesa vs. Jorge Masvidal (3-4-0 43%)

Main Card

125lbs- Demetrious Johnson (3-2-1) vs. John Moraga (0-2-0)

170lbs- Jake Ellenberger (6-2-0) vs. Rory MacDonald (4-0-0)

170lbs- Robbie Lawler (4-2-0) vs. Bobby Voelker (1-0-0)

135lbs- Jessica Andrade (0-0-0) vs. Liz Carmouche (2-0-0)

Preliminary Card

155lbs- Michael Chiesa (1-1-0) vs. Jorge Masvidal (2-3-0)

155lbs- Danny Castillo (3-2-0) vs. Tim Means (0-1-0)

155lbs- Mac Danzig (3-2-0) vs. Melvin Guillard (6-2-0)

155lbs- Yves Edwards (3-1-0) vs. Daron Cruickshank (1-1-0)

185lbs- Ed Herman (3-1-0) vs. Trevor Smith (1-1-0)

135lbs- Germaine de Randamie (1-0-0) vs. Julie Kedzie (1-0-0)

155lbs- Aaron Riley (1-0-0) vs. Justin Salas (0-0-0)

135lbs- John Albert (3-1-0) vs. Yaotzin Meza (1-0-0)

 


Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. $3.10 Jake is the best fighter that Rory has faced to date, that includes Condit as Ellenberger has more to offer in the wrestling department (yes I know Carlos beat Jake). This is a big test for Rory and I see him struggling to outwork and bully around his hard-hitting opponent.
2. Daron Cruickshank $1.80 This number could move but I would still have him at #2. Younger, hungrier, and more aggressive will help him to the win.
3. $2.85 Castillo is a tough opponent, but I expect Means to rebound from his last fight well. He took this fight on short notice with the knowledge of what Castillo is capable of and that a second loss will put him in some serious hot water. He must know something.
4. Germaine de Randamie $1.72 This number continues to move as well. I expect that closer to fight time she will be back as the underdog. Better striker, just needs to show continued improvement in her TDD. A year at AKA should help her with that.
5. Melvin Guillard $1.80 Certainly a risk if he shows up not mentally prepared, but he is too skilled to pass on here. This price is moving too and could be higher by bell time. Keep an eye on it.

The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

  • Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
  • I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.

Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. Trevor Smith $3.12 I just can’t trust Ed Herman as such a big favourite. Smith is a relative unknown, but he has the skillset to win this fight as long as he doesn’t gas out. This is the right bet for this fight.
2. $5.72 Such a huge price for a relative unknown. We just saw Rosi Sexton come in and put up a good fight against Alexis Davis when most didn’t expect it. This division is young and odds like this are ripe for the pick’n.
3. No Play
4.
5.

The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.


Prop Bets-

John Albert/ Yaotzin Meza Total Rounds Under 2.5- Albert has never gone the distance in his career and Meza has big numbers both in the finishing and in the getting finished categories. Play the Under.

Germaine de Randamie/Julie Kedzie Total Rounds Under 2.5- The majority of WMMA fights in the UFC have ended inside the distance. I expect both girls to come out swining and if Kedzie can get this fight to the ground a sub is an option, maybe a RNC. Play the Under.

Michael Chiesa/Jorge Masvidal Total Rounds Over 2.5- Masvidal is known for sitting back and potshotting opponents. He is going to be the vastly superior striker and will want to make sure he avoids a mistake leading to a grappling exchange that would benefit Chiesa. With these in minds I expect him to focus more on scoring points then finishing this fight. Play the Over.

Jessica Andrade/Liz Carmouche Total Rounds Under 2.5- I expect that these girls are going to come out to put a show on and throw down. I have seen both girls swing with bad intentions and they both have submission capabilities. Play the Under.

Robbie Lawler/Bobby Voelker Total Rounds Under 2.5- This fight might actually get dropped to 1.5 and as long as the price is right ($2.20 and up) take a shot at it. These guys are both known for throwing leather and knocking guys out. This could be a you hit me and I’ll hit you and we will see who is still standing type of fight. Play the Under.

Robbie Lawler to Win by TKO/KO/DQ- See the above explanation. Robbie Lawler by big FAT KO, maybe TKO, or maybe up kick to the groin three times in the first round for the DQ.

Demetrious Johnson to Win by Decision- I think DJ outpoints the challenger start to finish and while a late stoppage is possible its not likely.

Demetrious Johnson/John Moraga Total Rounds Over 4.5- I wouldn’t expect this total to be any lower but I still feel comfortable playing it. Play the Over.