UFC on Fox 5: Henderson vs Diaz Post Fight Results & Bet Pack

The hype was surely justified with this stacked UFC card. The words “pace yourself” must have never been mentioned to these fighters. The total gate and TV ratings were some of the highest numbers the UFC has recorded for a Fox event. Fight of the night went to Scott Jorgensen and John Albert, KO of the night went to Yves Edwards, and submission of the night also went to Scott Jorgensen. All the fighters received $65,000 bonuses, with Jorgensen pulling in $130,000 just in bonus money. Kamikaze Overdrive finished with a prediciton record 8-3-0 and now over the last two UFC on Fox events have a combined record of 17-4-0. The Bet Packs had a big financial return and for all the details check out the information at the bottom of the page.

135lbs – Scott Jorgensen (2-2 UFC) vs. John Albert (1-2 UFC) – Jorgensen via submission

Albert came to fight by forcing Jorgensen into a takedown, and once on the ground Albert almost secured a triangle, but the wrestling of Jorgensen was too much and he was able to secure a rear naked choke with 1 second left in round 1 after taking Albert’s back with just 10 seconds in the round.

145lbs – Dennis Siver (9-5 UFC) vs. Nam Phan (2-3 UFC) – Siver via U. decision

Siver was in complete control from start to finish in this fight. The 1st round was a display of Siver’s strong kickboxing, and after Siver felt Phan had enough on the feet he decided to take him down and beat on him for the 2nd and 3rd rounds on route to a very one-sided unanimous decision.

155lbs – Marcus LeVesseur (1-1 UFC) vs. Abel Trujillo (0-0 UFC) – Trujillo via TKO

Levesseur tried hard for that takedown but Trujillo made the Blackzillians proud by punishing LeVesseur’s body with punches, elbows and knees eventually finishing him in the 2nd round.

155lbs – Daron Cruickshank (1-0 UFC) vs. Henry Martinez (1-1 UFC) – Cruickshank via KO

Cruickshank and Martinez traded good strikes for the first round until Cruickshank rocked Martinez with a body kick. From that point on it was all Cruickshank as he managed to rock Martinez with a head kick later in the first round and landed an even better head kick in the 2nd to get the KO victory.

155lbs – Ramsey Nijem (2-1 UFC) vs. Joe Proctor (1-0 UFC) – Nijem via U. decision

Nijem was able to get a takedown in every round and worked some solid ground and pound as well as top control. On the feet Proctor was able to land good punches but Nijem did more than enough to win.

135lbs – Raphael Assunção (2-1 UFC) vs. Mike Easton (3-0 UFC) – Assunção via U. decision

Assunção was able to land more solid punches during the striking exchanges and even got some takedowns. Easton put up a good fight on the feet and stuffed most of the takedown attempts but it wasn’t enough to keep that 8 fight win streak.

155lbs – Yves Edwards (9-6 UFC) vs. Jeremy Stephens (7-7 UFC) – Edwards via KO

Both men came out swinging and neither really seemed to have edge until Edwards caught Stephens with a nice right hook just over a minute into round 1. It was the first time Stephens had been KO’d in his MMA career.

170lbs – Mike Swick (9-3 UFC) vs. Matt Brown (8-5 UFC) – Brown via KO

Brown showed that he wasn’t intimated by Swick and came out meeting him punch for punch. On the ground Brown was almost successful with a d’arce choke and a triangle, but Swick survived only to be KO’d with a great combination from Brown in the 2nd round.

170lbs – B.J. Penn (12-7-2 UFC) vs. Rory MacDonald (4-1 UFC) – MacDonald via U. decision

MacDonald was able to use his reach advantage and began timing Penn with perfect elbows to the head. The kicks, jab and odd takedown of MacDonald were too much for Penn to overcome, but the prodigy was never completely out of the fight even though he was staggered a few times.

205lbs – Maurício Rua (5-4 UFC) vs. Alexander Gustafsson (6-1 UFC) – Gustafsson via U. decision

Gustafsson used his jabs, uppercuts, kicks and takedowns to frustrate Rua for 3 rounds. Rua did land some good overhand punches to the head of Gustafsson but he hit air for most of the fight. As the fight went on it was easy to see Gustafsson was having his way with Rua. Next up for Gustafsson will be a shot at Jon Jones and that Light Heavyweight Championship.

155lbs – Benson Henderson (5-0 UFC) vs. Nate Diaz (11-5 UFC) – Henderson via U. decision

Henderson never let Diaz get comfortable enough to use his boxing skills let alone even win a round off the Lightweight Champ. Henderson used strong kicks, clinch work and some ground and pound to beat up Diaz for 5 rounds. This wasn’t a close fight at all so next up for Henderson should be a much tougher fight like Gray Maynard or a rematch with Anthony Pettis.

Next weekend is a double-header of Ultimate Fighter Finales with UFC on FX 6: Sotiropoulos vs. Pearson coming from Gold Coast, Australia. Later on that same Saturday in Las Vegas, Nevada will be The Ultimate Fighter Finale: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson. Unfortunately Shane Carwin suffered an injury and was replaced by Ultimate Fighter alum Matt Mitrione. Check back in for more UFC predictions.

The Bet Packs included: 3 Winning Parlays, Winning Betting information on almost all breakdowns, 4 of 5 Confidence picks hitting, 4 of 5 value picks hitting and 2 winning Prop bets. Also if you purchased the new pack the non-predicted winners list included Ben Henderson and Raphael Assuncao, don’t miss out next time and makes sure you get all of the inside betting information.

 


UFC on Fox 5 $10 Bet Pack


Parlay Doubles

===================================================
Parlay #1
===================================================
Selection 1: Daron Cruickshank $1.74
Selection 2: Ramsey Nijem $1.54
===================================================
Price: $2.68
 
===================================================
Parlay #2
===================================================
Selection 1: Mike Easton $1.49
Selection 2: Nate Diaz $2.38
===================================================
Price: $3.55

Parlay Triples

===================================================
Parlay #3
===================================================
Selection 1: Scott Jorgensen $1.38
Selection 2: Ramsey Nijem $1.54
Selection 3: Alexander Gustafsson $1.50
===================================================
Price: $3.19

========================================

Parlay #4
===================================================
Selection 1: Matt Brown $2.05
Selection 2: Rory MacDonald $1.36
Selection 3: Dennis Siver $1.35
===================================================
Price: $3.76

Parlay Double-Doubles

===================================================
Parlay #5
===================================================
Selection 1: Daron Cruickshank $1.74
Selection 2: Dennis Siver $1.35
Selection 3: Mike Easton $1.49
Selection 4: Alexander Gustafsson $1.50
===================================================
Price: $5.25
 
===================================================
Parlay #6
===================================================
Selection 1: Ramsey Nijem $1.54
Selection 2: Yves Edwards 2.67
Selection 3: Rory MacDonald $1.36
Selection 4: Nate Diaz $2.38
===================================================
Price: $13.31
 

Big Parlay (I couldn’t come up with a name for this one)

===================================================
Parlay #7
===================================================
Selection 1: Ramsey Nijem $1.54
Selection 2: Rory MacDonald $1.36
Selection 3: Alexander Gustafsson $1.50
Selection 4: Mike Easton $1.49
Selection 5: Daron Cruickshank $1.74
Selection 6: Dennis Siver $1.35
Selection 7: Scott Jorgensen $1.38
===================================================
Price: $15.17

A Puncher’s Chance

===================================================
Parlay #8
===================================================
Selection 1: Ramsey Nijem $1.54
Selection 2: Nate Diaz $2.38
Selection 3: Alexander Gustafsson $1.50
Selection 4: Mike Easton $1.49
Selection 5: Daron Cruickshank $1.74
Selection 6: Matt Brown $2.05
Selection 7: Scott Jorgensen $1.38
===================================================
Price: $40.32
 

Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns

John Albert $2.90 vs Scott Jorgensen $1.38

This is the type of fight where I think that UFC is trying to give Scotty Jorgensen a win. Take nothing away from Albert he is one tough kid, but Jorgensen has fought top level guys- Cruz, Barao, Wineland, Pickett and so on and now he is fighting a former castmember of the Ultimate Fighter with a 1-2 UFC record. I would think tht the justification for this pairing is that both have dropped 2 fights in a row, but outside of that Albert and Jorgensen have been competeing in two very different realms. I picked Wineland to upset Jorgensen based on his his ability to defend takedowns in his previous fights against Faber and Benavidez. Basically what most, not all, of Scotty’s fights come down to are his ability/ inability to complete takedowns. Wineland, Cruz, and Barao all picked up wins because they kept the fight standing, outside of that not too many have had success against Jorgensen and Albert certainly doesn’t belong in the conversation with those 3 talent-wise. Unless Jorgensen is unable to take this fight to the mat or unwilling he will pick up the win. Even if he elects to stand with him Albert he still could earn the win and has the ability to quickly change gears and shoot for the takedown if things start going south. I have seen Scotty higher then $1.40, but even as low as $1.30 I think he is a solid bet. I would suggest doubling him up with Rory MacDonald or Alexander Gustafsson instead of making just a small bet and then using him on the majority of your parlays bets. For John Albert he is a no play at anything below $3.50.

Henry Martinez $2.05 vs Daron Cruickshank $1.74

One of my favourite set of odds to call- a clear favourite but with a tonne of value. Cruickshank was a TUFer with high expectations and Martinez was a injury replacement fighting above his weightclass in his debut. Cruickshank got knocked out and Martinez looked great despite the lose in his debut and then failed to impress in his second fight despite the win. I really like Cruickshank’s well rounded skill set here to play the biggest role in the outcome of the fight. Martinez did well against Riddle early when Riddle kept attacking in the same way, but when he mixed it up Martinez fell behind. The same could be said in Martinez’s second fight, with Henry having to deal with the constant threat of a takedown keeping him off balance. I like Cruickshanks kicks to score on the feet and then when he wants to he will shoot and land takedowns (watch for the inside leg trip). Martinez counters well, but when his opponent doesn’t follow a set pattern of attack his ability to counter successfully is lessened. I woud suggest a medium sized single bet on Cruickshank and working him into a number of your parlays while staying away Martinez all together.

Joe Proctor $2.45 vs Ramsey Nijem $1.54

This is another fight with the favourite having a decent return, not as size-able as Cruickshank but considering that Nijem is a more proven commodity at this level it makes sense. If Proctor can’t get this fight to the ground in a dominant position he will be in trouble, enough said. Nijem is a tough guy to handle on the mat and unless Proctor is able to hurt him I struggle to see how Joe can get the W here. Nijem has looked better and better with each fight and I expect further improve again. Nijem at $1.54 has some nice value and I would suggest a mid-range single play along with including him in the majority of your parlays. For Proctor he is a no play here until he wins a fight at this level in his post TUF career.

Abel Trujillo $3.32 vs Tim Means $1.35

 

Unless Trujillo has something going on that isn’t initially apparent his signing raises some questions. He does train with the Blackzillians and maybe one of the big names from that camp convinced Dana and Co. to take a chance on Abel. I don’t know, but lets make some money off this fight. I think the only reason Means isn’t a bigger fav is because most of the betting public don’t know who he is. He is 2-0 in the UFC, with a pair of impressive wins, but both came on the prelims against relative unknown fighters. Physically, Means presents challenge for most at 155 and with Abel making his debut it will only add to his difficult night. I think that Means is an excellent play for this evening and most likely will make it onto my Top 5 Confidence list. At $1.35 his return isn’t going to be huge, but if you double or even triple him up with the likes of Nijem, Jorgensen and/or MacDonald it increases the return significantly without too much of a risk. For Trujillo I am not sold on him at this level simply because he has never competed at this level or one even close to it. There is always the chance for an upset, but I just don’t see it here. Famous last words eh.

Nam Phan $3.32 vs Dennis Siver $1.35

Phan is filling in as an injury replacement and I actually like this fight better then the original. Siver has to be just chomping at the bit to get in the cage as he was originally on the 151 card and got pushed back to fight here. Both guys have great striking skills and will have no problem showcasing what they are capable of. Of the two I would expect that Siver with his Sambo background will be more likely to look for takedowns. Phan is a BJJ black belt but we have seen him dominated on the ground before. I don’t think Siver will wipe the floor with Nam, but I think Dennis will land takedowns that score big points if the round appears to be close. One area of concern for Siver is his conditioning. He does a nice job of pacing himself when his opponent allows him to do so, as was the case against Nunes, but if Phan is able to push him it could create some problems. Speed could be another issue, it favoured Siver at 155 but at 145 it will be against him in most fights as it most likely will be vs Phan. On the flip side, Phan usually benefits from being the more technical striker but against Siver that could be a tough battle too win. We have seen many former UFC LWs have some success at FW but eventually all of them have tripped up, could Siver be next? Considering he has already picked up a win against a top 10 FW in Diego Nunes, I think he is more than capable of winning this fight. Siver, like many favs on tis card has some value in the $1.30 range and would make a solid addition to the parlay cards. For a single bet he doesn’t offer a big return and much like in most of the other breakdowns I will again advocate pairing him up with some of the other favs- Jorgensen, Nijem, Easton, Rory, and even Cruickshank to get a little bit higher of a payout without increasing the risk too significantly. For Phan, the guy has been on the wrong end of some very close decision and that could cost him here, but he does have value paying out at $3.32 and has a better chance of winning this fight then some of the other dogs that pay less. There is actually a prop bet for this fight that I really like and most likely will be hitting, check out the prop section when it is posted.

Raphael Assuncao $2.67 vs Mike Easton $1.49

Honestly I am not a big fan, or at least I wasn’t, of Mike Easton. I felt that he had been built up with some fabricated hype and his two UFC wins prior to the Menjivar fight were over relative unknowns. After his win over Ivan I gained some serious respect for what he is capable of doing in the cage. I honestly gave a long look at this fight after it was announced and I wanted to exhausted all manners in which Assuncao could pick up the win. He is a solid vet with a good ground game and above average striking. If Easton wasn’t coming off of a win over a guy like Menjivar then I would have my doubts in this fight, but in reality if Easton handled Menjivar, he should be able to to do the same against Assuncao. I don’t want to sell Raphael short and if he does win this fight he moves right into the mix, but he will have to do things that others haven’t been able to. Getting Easton to the ground and then keeping him there is a difficult task and no one has been able to do it so far. On the feet Assuncao is pretty decent, but the way in which Easton walked through Menjivar’s strikes leads me to believe that Raphael is going to have to put one right on the button to stop Easton or else we are going to see something similar. Easton is a physically imposing guy with a tonne of confidence and as soon as he starts pressing the action and backing his opponent down it can become incredibility difficult for his adversary to stick to a gameplan. Again I really looked at Assuncao to see if he had a chance to pull of the upset and when it came right down to it I just don’t see it happening. If you can get Easton between $1.50 and $1.40 then I would say bet him on his own, if he gets down into the $1.30 range double him up with any of the other $1.30ish favs that I have already picked. You can also include him on your parlays, I would say the vat majority of them makes sense. For Assuncao he has some value, but I would only bet on him if you have a some extra bankroll.

Yves Edwards 2.67 vs Jeremy Stephens 1.49

This is the second time I have posted this breakdown and really nothing has changed or happened that would change my opinion. When this fight was made the first image that came into my head was Edwards dropping to the ground in the Stout fight. I then coupled that image with the power punching style of Stephens and made my first base prediction- Stephens by KO. This is a potential outcome, but when I started breaking things down further more and more I began to see things in favour of Edwards. Stephens is a head hunter and it would appear that his opposition has started to figure this out. He throws bombs and hopes to connect and on occasion he does- early against Sam Stout and late against Marcus Davis. But when you actually break those fights down Stephens has major issues with fighters that use a more technically base striking style compared to his full steam ahead approach. Stephens looked broken against Cerrone and I am by no means expecting something like that here, but the manner in which Cowboy picked him apart avoiding that one game changing shot was impressive. It also provided a nice blueprint for a veteran like Edwards to follow. This is a huge fight in the career of Yves, he as been and fought everywhere and if he could pull of a win over Stephens he would gain some decent traction in the division. Jeremy is going to use one of two approaches in this fight; the aforementioned knocked chasing style or what we saw against Anthony Pettis early- takedown and top control. I expect that Edwards is going to be talented enough to deal with both attacking with submission off his back if he is taken down and his 71% TDD has be believing that Jeremy’s success will be limited. If I was a betting man (haha) I expect Stephens to be fully aware of Yves knockout history and look to pick up a highlight worthy KO to rebuild that power puncher image and maybe put a little extra green in his pocket. Edwards impressed me against Tony Ferguson and I really expect him to work in leg strikes with success to keep Stephens out of range and chasing. For Edwards he pays well and is worth a nice single bet, and should be some of your parlays. For Stephens his style is entertaining, but if you look at his track record against other talented strikers- Cerrone, Pettis, Davis, Guillard, Stout, and Fisher he is 2-4-0, easily could have been 1-5 or 0-6 and those odds don’t sound too appealing especially when he is a favourite of this magnitude.

Matt Brown $2.05 vs Mike Swick $1.74

This should be an entertaining bout and could be a candidate for Fight of the Night. There is no questioning the effort that can be expected from both men, but what we can look at is who is going to be able to do enough for the win. Mike Swick was on the cusp of title contention before dropping a couple of fights and then going down for a prolonged period of time as the result of a serious of injuries and ailments. Matt Brown has struggled to find consistency inside the cage, alternating wins and losses until he recently where he has put together a respectable 3 fight winning streak. I don’t want to take anything away from Brown’s recent success, but the three men he has defeated- Chris Cope, Stephan Thompson, and Luis Ramos are far from elite level competition. Cope and Ramos are no longer employed with the company and Thompson, although a heavy favourite against Brown (I picked Brown to win) was/ is still a relatively young and developing fighter. Over his career, whenever Brown got pushed to the next level of competition he always seemed to come up short, but does Swick represent that next level. A few years ago, yes undeniably, Mike Swick was a top level Welterweight. Unfortunately, time and injuries have had a major impact on his career and despite the win against DaMarques Johnson, he struggled. Johnson is an entertaining fighter, but he is far from elite and has a history of getting finished. Swick most likely lost the opening round of that fight and I question how the rest of the fight would have played out had he not landed that one big punch that put Johnson to sleep. Ring rust 100% played a role, which makes it a little difficult trying to determine where Swick is after is 2 year layoff. When it comes down to it I am going with the hot hand in this fight and with Brown’s recent winning streak and activity that means him. Brown does have submission defense problems, but he has only been defeated on 2 occasions when his opponent wasn’t able to submit him. Swick has 3 career submission wins, not one as I incorrectly mentioned in my show, one came in his pro debut and the other two came very early in his MMA career so it isn’t impossible for him to sub Brown but the chances are limited. Swick appeared to be breaking under the pressure and physical attack of Johnson and I expect something similar here from Brown. He needs to get in, use the clinch and limit Swick’s speed. Brown at $2.05 is a decent play; I actually expect this line to drift closer to even by fight time, so get on him sooner rather than later. For Swick, I did pick him against Johnson, but I think that Brown offers more of a challenge and although he has some value he needs to show a little more before I feel comfortable betting on him outright.

Rory MacDonald $1.36 vs BJ Penn $3.46

BJ Penn is one of the greatest of all time, but I consider that status coming on the basis of his accomplishments at Lightweight and his upset win of Matt Hughes. Outside of beating Hughes in 2 of 3 fights, he has had sporadic success at 170 pounds. This can partially be attributed to that fact that he has faced elite level competition at 170 like GSP x 2, Jon Fitch, and Nick Diaz. But if you are going to run with the big dogs and be considered a big dog you need to beat at least some of them. Rory MacDonald is going to be a big dog and might already be there- this fight will help him to further establish that position. He hammered Che Mills and Mike Pyle and manhandled Nate Diaz which are all pretty impressive feats, but none of those fighters are top 10 at 170. His fight with Condit was impressive if you take into account Rory’s age and what Condit has done against the rest of the division not named St-Pierre. Head to head Rory has a lot of elements in his corner. His size is a big edge, especially if he is able to get on top of BJ. His training camp and the people surrounding him could be even more impactful. Coming from the same camp and being trained by the same man that lead GSP to a 2-0 record versus Penn is a huge boost. Yes, Rory said he wasn’t relying on Georges in preparation for this fight but Firas Zahabi’s familiarity with Penn will be more than enough. MacDonald should be more than prepared for what Penn will bring and what he needs to do to overcome him. For Penn his layoff is problematic, especially with his already questionable conditioning. When Penn was fighting regularly his conditioning was a big problem and I have to wonder what impact the layoff will have on his ability to fight a full 3 rounds. Yes there are pictures floating around of an “in shape BJ”, but until he is able to prove himself in the cage I am not buying it. BJ faded against Fitch and he faded against Diaz and I think that Rory offers a nice combination of striking and grappling that gave Penn trouble in each of these fights. Financially, I am actually a little surprised that Rory pays as well as he does. Penn’s ability to win this fight diminishes with every second that ticks off the clock and as long as Rory can avoid getting clipped with a big shot he should be good to go. I suggest betting on Rory with a decent size single bet and using him in the majority of your parlays, while leaving Penn off the cards. Penn got smashed against Diaz and I think he could see something similar here, probably more definitive.

Mauricio Rua $2.60 vs Alexander Gustafsson $1.50

Is the big Swede the next title contender at 205? This fight will go a long way to proving it. Shogun has an unwavering fan base that believes he could fight a nuclear warhead or tsunami (maybe both at the same time) and get the win, so please when filtering through the forums avoid the opinions of nuthuggers and diehards when it comes to your money. Shogun is a good fighter and Shogun was a great fighter. Can he be great again? I have my doubts. If you rule out his decision defeat against Lyoto Machida, he hasn’t looked that great in any fight that didn’t end abruptly. If he can stop Gustafsson early the cry will go up that an in shape and motivated Shogun is back and ready for a title shot, but I will still have my doubts. Yes if he can put one on Gustafsson’s chin he may go to sleep, but that sounds like a puncher’s chance to me and I won’t bet on that. Gustafsson is physically the much larger fighter and will most likely use this advantages to try and break Shogun early in a similar fashion to what Jones did. He also fights well from distance as he did against Thiago Silva, but I actually think that this style could leave him open for more damage. Shogun was able to solve the riddle of Lyoto Machida’s distance striking and if Gustafsson doesn’t pressure him and allows him to settle in it will cost him. I expect a similar approach from the Swede to what we saw when he fought Cyrille Diabate. Alexander got inside and brawled with Diabate, pushing the pace to the point that Diabate couldn’t keep up. This can be dangerous against Shogun as he could find a home for a quick counter strike, but if you look at the success that both Henderson and Vera had brawling with him the risk/reward is there. I felt that the Vera fight was very telling of where Shogun is. He did get the win but it was a brutal war against a fighter that is on the outer reaches of the division’s top 25, maybe even lower. Vera pushed Rua and if Brandon was a little more on top of his own game he could of come out on top. It is always a risk when a fighter faces that next level competition for the first time, but Gustafsson has been brought along well progressing nicely to this stage of competition. At $1.50 he has some definite value and doubling him up with Rory would have a nice little return for a low risk parlay. For Shogun at $2.60 he is worth a look as the veteran guy meant to test the young up and coming fighter, I would suggest a small bet on him.

Nate Diaz $2.38 vs Benson Henderson $1.66

Predicting a title change is always a tough go of it. I picked Henderson to defeat Edgar, I picked Jones over Shogun, and I picked the upset win with Johnson beating the uncrowned (still the case) Flyweight champion Joseph Benavidez. I have also picked multiple challengers that came up short in their efforts. Ben Henderson’s performance in the second fight vs Edgar was far from inspiring and I have watched it a couple of times now and in reality I think Edgar should be the champ now not Benson. Edgar had a lot of success with his striking and had he been able to to push the pace a little more and slightly increase his frequency/ damage done the judges would have give him the strap. That sounds exactly like the style that Nate Diaz brings and yes there is a theoretical ‘formula’ for beating Nate: Takedowns + Leg strikes, but saying it and doing are two different things. I like Nate’s pressure, striking skills, and cardio and then when you combine it with a significant reach and height advantage I see good things happen. Yes Bendo could take Nate down and hold him there for the full 5 rounds, but I really think that Diaz has turned a corner and put those troubles with strong wrestlers behind him. I think this is going to be a close fight, I think this fight is going the distance and those are scary things for a challengers with the whole ‘you have to clearly beat the champion to take the title’ attitiude. Either way this is going to be a great scrap and I like Diaz to pull it out. He pays very well at $2.38 and I will be making a nice single bet along with working him into my parlays. For Bendo at $1.66 I think he has value, moreso then most champs do, so I will probably play him in a small parlay with Rory and/or Mike Easton.


 

Top 5 Confidence Bets (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1. Rory MacDonald $1.36

2. Scott Jorgensen $1.38

3. Ramsey Nijem $1.54

4. Mike Easton $1.49

5. Dennis Siver $1.35

-Purchase the $5 Bet Pack to get my rankings for the entire event + my non-predicted Top 5 Value Plays


Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

1. Nate Diaz $2.38

2. Daron Cruickshank $1.74

3. Matt Brown $2.05

4. Yves Edwards 2.67

5. Ramsey Nijem $1.54

The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

  • Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
  • I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.

Prop Bets-

Scott Jorgensen/ John Albert Total Rounds Over 1.5 or 2.5– This play is a risk with Albert getting finished in his last two fights, but Jorgensen is the type of fighter that likes to turn his bouts into a grind and I could see that happening here. He is the better fighter so I base this pick on his ability to implement his game plan, play the over.

Nam Phan/ Dennis Siver Total Rounds Over 1.5 or 2.5I really expect this fight to go the distance, Siver has shown finishing skills but I would think he will be more focused on scoring points and pacing himself. Phan is a tough guy and should keep this fight competitive and the end result will be a judge’s decision. Play the over.

Rory MacDonald Wins by KO/TKO/DQ $3.00– Rory will be looking to make a statement and finishing Penn would do just that. He has size, strength, and conditioning on his size. If he can control and break BJ early he will stop him late when he starts to land the big power shots that he sent Pyle and Mills’s direction.

Shogun Rua/ Alexander Gustafsson Total Rounds under 2.5– I would not play this if your book has it at 1.5 and if you do it better have a decent return. Shogun is capable of putting a stamp on Gustafsson and putting him to sleep and I think Gustafsson has the ability to finish Rua especially if he gets tired. I would expect to see Alexander try to break him down and eventually look for the submission finish late, hopefully under the 2.5 round mark. Play the Over.

Nate Diaz by TKO/KO/DQ $12.55– This is a pure value bet as I took Nate by decision. I’m curious to see how Benson holds up against the type of damage Nate is able to put on his opponent and I wouldn’t be shocked to see Ben crumbled in the later rounds if Diaz lands with regularity. Again pure value, but a small investment could have a nice return.

Nate Diaz/ Ben Henderson Total Rounds Over 3.5 or 4.5 $1.63Ben has finished opponents in the past, but he has gone to decision in pretty much every big fight of recent memory. For Nate he is a closer, but Benson’s submission defense is becoming legendary and will make it tough for Diaz to tap him. I did post the Diaz KO play above and it could happen, but with Diaz paying over $12 for the knockout you can see the line makers don’t think it is all that likely. This is a big fight and playing the Over is a decent move in the $1.60 range.


 UFC on Fox 5 $5 Bet Pack


Total Event Confidence Bets  (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1. Rory MacDonald $1.36

2. Tim Means   $1.35

 

3. Scott Jorgensen   $1.38

4. Ramsey Nijem   $1.54

5. Mike Easton   $1.49

6. Dennis Siver   $1.35

7. Daron Cruickshank   $1.74

8. Alexander Gustafsson $1.50

9. Nate Diaz   $2.38

10. Matt Brown $2.05

11. Yves Edwards   2.67

 


Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

1.  Benson Henderson   $1.66

2. Mauricio Rua $2.60

3. Nam Phan   $3.32

4. Raphael Assuncao   $2.67

5. Mike Swick $1.74

The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.