UFC on FOX 29: Poirier vs Gaethje- Bet Pack Review

 

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Draftkings Line up

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Kamikaze
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Fighter 1: Justin Gaethje $7800 
Fighter 2: Marvin Vettori $7100 
Fighter 3: Muslim Salikhov $8900 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: Yushin Okami $8200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 5: Luke Sanders $9300 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 6: Matthew Lopez $8500 
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: Cortney Casey $8300 
Fighter 2: Wilson Reis $8600 
Fighter 3: 
Fighter 4: 
 
 
 

 

Dustin Gaethje +120 vs Dustin Poirier -120 

This should be a great fight! Poirier is the more technical fighter, but he struggles with opponets that are more physical and willing to brawl/pressure him. Gaethje throws with power and works at a superior pace. His wrestling will keep Dustin from scoring takedowns which are his go-to in close fights. Gaethje gets it done in violent fashion- Gold Play.

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Poirier’s chin is a question mark and Gaethje fights to finish. If he can’t get the stoppage, Justin is capable of putting up big numbers over 5 rounds. He is affordable- add him.

Alex Oliveira -190 vs Carlos Condit +185 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Last second replacement fight for Oliveira. This is either a No Play or a small Bronze bet on Oliveira. Condit has struggled against the elite of the division and Oliveira has the skills to replicate his past grappling based issues. That being said, he is returning off a brutal knockout and if Condit’s last fight was the product of ring rust, he could pick up the win here. Tread carefully.

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No play here. Condit is a tough out and Oliviera is a little rich for my blood.

Israel Adesanya -250 vs Marvin Vettori +230 

I’m on the dog here. Vettori isn’t an elite wrestler, but he is better than anyone that Adesanya has faced so far and once on the mat his submission game is very good. Vettori can’t absorb too much damage, but he still needs to pressure. Nice value here. Vettori for the upset.

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If Vettori gets this fight to the floor he can finish. If he can keep the pressure on and score takedowns and puts points up that way.

Cortney Casey -115 vs Michelle Waterson +115 

This stands to be a close fight, but I was a little shocked that Casey was the fav here. Waterson’s wins have come over less than stellar opposition while Casey has been trending upwards. She is going to be too big for Waterson to control in the clinch and her lack of volume will make it hard for her to outwork Casey. Silver Play.

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Casey has a pretty good finishing rate and if she can get on top of Waterson I could see her forcing the ref’s hand with a TKO or possible scoring the submission. Add her to your spare list.

Antonio Carlos Junior -235 vs Tim Boetsch +215 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

There are lots of betting options on this card. I might consider slipping ACJ into a lower level parlay maybe via a prop bet, but I will tread carefully here.

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ACJ is an option with his submission skills, but I have left him out of my lineup because of his price and position on the card; decision prone.

Muslim Salikhov -175 vs Ricky Rainey +165 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Rainey is coming in on short notice and his style should play into the hands of Salikhov’s desire to strike. If Rainey can wrestle with him he could exploit the same gaps that Garcia did. I would like to see Salikhov get a win at this level before I get too big on investing in him. Silver play.

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With a finish heavy record and a fighter that will stand and strike with him, Salikhov in a solid play to add to your fantasy team. He gets the win with a stoppage inside the first 5 minutes.

John Moraga +115 vs Wilson Reis -124 

I have seen a lot of people backing Moraga here. I don’t like backing trendy underdog picks. Moraga beat a very overmatched opponent and then knocked out a hot prospect in very short order. I like to see a fighter put together a complete performance against good competition before I feel they are out of their funk. Reis’s chin is an issue, but he has all the skills to exploit and defeat Moraga. Silver Play.

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Reis will put up points with his takedowns and he certainly can finish with his sub game if he wants to go that route. Add him as a spare.

Brad Tavares -115 vs Krzysztof Jotko +110 

This fight screams close, possibly a split decision. Jotko will look for takedowns and should press forward more often. Tavares’s lack of urgency is a major concern. He doesn’t throw with power and that will make it difficult for him to back KJ off. Both men have been through close fights, I like Jotko to just do a little more. I feel good about this pick despite how close it could be. Gold Play.

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We are most likely going to the cards. Pass.

Dan Moret +505 vs Gilbert Burns -550 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Nothing doing there. Pass.

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I will pass here too, Burns is too expensive for my liking.

Lauren Mueller -111 vs Shana Dobson +105 

Another closely lined fight. Neither has faced amazing competition, but Dobson fought on TUF and has her UFC debut under her belt. Mueller fought in Gladiator which tends to be an automatic fade in most fights. Mueller also gassed hard in her last fight and that will make her a sitting target against Dobson more energy efficient style of striking. Dobson is a Bronze play.

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We are going the distance here. We are probably going the distance here, unless Mueller gasses so hard that she gets finished. Either way, pass.

Dhiego Lima +100 vs Yushin Okami -106 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Okami has faced and defeated better competition over his career. More importantly, he looked good during his return to WW prior to getting the call back to the UFC. Lima lost his last fight outside of the UFC before TUF and then got smashed in the TUF finals. I’ve always felt he is a vulnerable fighter that can be finished or simply pressured and outworked into a loss. Okami gets the call in the Gold section.

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Okami is very affordable and is facing an opponent that has a history of getting finished over his career. Add him.

Adam Wieczorek +300 vs Arjan Bhullar -325 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is a pass. Both guys are still developing and while Bhullar has the better skill set, the price isn’t worth it. I will look at a potential prop bet instead.

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Pass. This will probably make more sense when you see my prop play.

Alejandro Perez +115 vs Matthew Lopez -124 

Perez could have one of the most underwhelming winning streaks in the promotion. Lopez is more aggressive on the feet and has his wrestling to fall back on. Perez has just got by in some very close fights, that ends here. Silver play for Lopez.

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Perez has been a little fragile in his defeats. Lopez fights to finish and will come out looking to do so either with his hands or on the mat. Add him.

Luke Sanders -400 vs Patrick Williams +375 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I will pass here as Sanders has blown a couple of fights that he was ahead in. If he does it here again he is officially a massive bust.

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Consider Williams has been finished on multiple occasions and tends to gas out and Sanders is aggressive with stopping skills all the way around, I like Sanders to get an early stoppage. Add him

1. Luke Sanders -400 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Gilbert Burns -550 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Antonio Carlos Junior -235 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Yushin Okami -106 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Justin Gaethje +120 

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6. Wilson Reis -124 

7.  Matthew Lopez -124 

8. Krzysztof Jotko +110 

9. Arjan Bhullar -325 

10. Cortney Casey -115 

11. Shana Dobson +105 

12. Alex Oliveira -190 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

13. Muslim Salikhov -175 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

14. Marvin Vettori +230 

1. Justin Gaethje +120 

2. Marvin Vettori +230 

3. Yushin Okami -106 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Krzysztof Jotko +110 

5. Shana Dobson +105 

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bETTING SCENARIOS

 

Exclusive Bet Pack Content.

Prop Bets

 

Justin Gaethje to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +185 

DG fights to finish and Poirier will oblige him and isn’t nearly as durable. I looked at the Under 1.5 rounds, but I feel Gaethje might need a little more than that you get it done and the value isn’t as strong with all things considered.

Antonio Carlos Junior/Tim Boetsch 

See Betting Scenario Section.

Muslim Salikhov/Ricky Rainey Total Rounds Under 2.5 -110 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Salikhov has a lengthy list of finishes on his record and so does Rainey. The line is set at 2.5 rounds which is not what I expected, especially considering that Rainey is coming in on very short notice. Hit the Under.

Krzysztof Jotko to Win By Decision +153 

I see this fight being very evenly matched. I still feel that KJ will do a little more in all areas to earn the decision, but these 2 should be headed to the scorecards. Tavares has some chin issues, but with 12 of his 19 wins coming by decision compared to just 5 knockout wins- 4 of 5 coming back in 2011. Take him on the cards.

Yushin Okami to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +770 

While Okami has 11 wins by knockout, very few have come in recent action. That being said, he is a big man for WW and should be able to impose his will on Lima. This play has a lot to do with Lima’s bottom of the barrel durability. He has been finished in 5 straight losses, including 4 by knockout. This is a must play!

Arjan Bhullar to Win by Decision -110 

I was hoping to get plus money for this play, but we are still in a decent spot. Bhullar is still developing the skills needed to complement his wrestling, so a finish is not a priority just yet. He will most likely look for a get multiple takedowns in his fight and while Wieczorek will give up TDs, he is decent enough to survive off his back. Take the big Canadian on the cards.

Alejandro Perez/Matthew Lopez

See Betting Scenario Section.

Luke Sanders/Patrick Williams 

See Betting Scenario Section.

 

KAMIKAZE OVERDRIVE LOGO White