UFC on FOX 28: Emmett vs Stephens- Bet Pack Review

 

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Depending on your betting style, you can select the Big Bank Roll Parlays which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Big Risk/ Big Reward Parlays are for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

 

 

 

Draftkings Line up

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Kamikaze
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Fighter 1: Jessica Andrade $9200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Ilir Latifi $7900 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: Ben Saunders $7100 
Fighter 4: Mike Perry $9400 
Fighter 5: Eric Shelton $7500 
Fighter 6: Manny Bermudez $8800 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: Jeremy Stephens $8600 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Angela Hill $8200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: Rani Yahya $9300 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: 
 
 
 

Jeremy Stephens -145 vs Josh Emmett +145 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Emmett has gone from relative unknown prelim fighter as a Lightweight to top ranked Main Eventer as a Featherweight. Stephens has taken much longer and is more season/battle hardened. Stephens is the more natural striker and has been showing signs of round out his attack, moving on from being just a head hunter. His leg kicks are going to be key here over a 5 round fight. They should slow Emmett down and make his surges far less effective. I can see Stephens winning a decision here or scoring a stoppage. Gold Play.

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Emmett could be a tough out and if Stephens fights smart, he might end up going the distance without a stoppage. He can still score points, but I have him as an alternate instead of a starter. Use him for diversification purposes.

Jessica Andrade -270 vs Tecia Torres +260 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

For my money, Andrade is a better version of Torres. More impactful on the feet and on the mat. Her price isn’t bad here and I don’t see how Torres wins this. She doesn’t have the power to stop her and she isn’t the striker that JJ is to earn a decision. Andrade is a Gold play for sure.

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I also have Jessica in my starting lineup. She is capable of getting the finish here, but her volume is going to be huge. Torres is going to engage her as she is developing a new more aggressive style and Andrade is going to eat that up. Add her.

Ilir Latifi +135 vs Ovince St. Preux -125 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I feel like I have a good read on OSP. Who beats him, who he beats. Latifi needs to avoid the early offense that will come his way, get on the inside, and go to work with his wrestling. OSP has a clear vulnerability to wrestlers and Latifi is very strong on the inside and on top. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ilir score a finish or grind out a decision once he gets OSP on the mat. Anderson was on his way to the upset, Latifi will close the show. Silver play because of Ilir’s vulnerability to kicks.

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Latifi isn’t a big volume guy, but he can score a stoppage here with a sub or a TKO. If not, his takedown game and top position strikes should be enough to make his slightly sub $8000 price tag profitable.

Max Griffin +320 vs Mike Perry -275 

I see this as a squash match to showcase the local fighter, get the crowd fired up, and help get Perry back on track. I will look at a prop here, but Perry can be used as a complimentary pick in the Gold Section.

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Perry is not cheap, but some of our other picks have made him affordable. He has won all his fights by knockout and Griffin appears to be vulnerable to bigger hitters. I like what I see here. Add him.

Brian Kelleher +140 vs Renan Barao -149 

I gave Kelleher a good look, but I am just not sold on his striking. He is a little simple on the feet and unless he really pushes Barao, I don’t see him gassing him out. Barao is going to find some success on the mat here as well, especially considering Kelleher has some submission defense issues. Barao will benefit from the camp change and it shows here. Still a Bronze play until we see where he is at.

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I am going to pass here.

Marion Reneau +195 vs Sara McMann -195 

McMann is an elite level wrestler, but her elite level skills start to fade when she takes damage and/or is put under duress. Reneau has those skills, but she also has trouble staying on her feet. I expect to see McMann on top for the majority of the fight and possibly grabbing a sub at some point. Silver Play.

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No Play.

Angela Hill -160 vs Maryna Moroz +155 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Moroz is still riding high on an early upset submission win and a couple of narrow wins. She has not look that good of late and for me, Hill has been improving with each fight. Even in the defeat, Angela has looked good. The key here is the volume for Hill. She is going to put Moroz on the defensive, with a limited ability to find her own offense. Hill gets the call in my Gold Play.

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I’ve got Hill in my sub list. I could see her putting up close to 100+ strikes. She is affordable here and could help you to add some big players.

Alan Jouban -253 vs Ben Saunders +240 

Saunders is fighting at home. Last weekend we found out how important that can be. Both fighters are chinny, but Jouban appears to have taken an abrupt downward turn. Think Saunders stays busier and outworks him, possibly snatching a close decision or a stoppage. Bronze Play.

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Pass.

Marcin Prachnio -229 vs Sam Alvey +215 

This is a clear No Play her. Lots of reasons, but little time to post them. Pass.

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Pass.

Rani Yahya -223 vs Russell Doane +215 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Doane’s Fight IQ is a major issue. He is way too willing to engage grapplers on the mat and that will get him in trouble here. Unlike most of Rani’s opponents, Doane won’t make him work for TDs and that will give Yahya ample time to go to work on the mat. Yahya snatches the sub. His gas tank still remains a concern, so I will add him as a 4th option in the Silver section.

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Yahya is a playable option, but he is expensive. If you want to switch things up, he could come in as a solid secondary option. Takedowns and transition, with a possible submission win, could certainly produce.

Alex Perez -110 vs Eric Shelton +115 

Perez missed weight and the line is changing because of it. Shelton is going to have a speed advantage and I feel his cardio edge will be greater now. Perez is great on the mat and Shelton can be taken down, but he keeps getting back up. Once Perez starts to slow even a bit, Shelton’s superior striking will take over. I like Shelton as a Silver play here.

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Shelton is very cheap and while I am not expecting a finish, he will score with volume and he will save us some money in the process. Perez has had a vulnerability to submissions so we could backdoor a finish here where we were least expecting it.

Albert Morales +153 vs Manny Bermudez -155 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I like Morales, I just feel he isn’t suited for this fight. He will want to mix it up with Bermudez which should allow Manny to either clinch up and attack a sub like Ortega does or drag the fight to the floor for a triangle. Don’t be shocked to see him pull guard. Still, with a debuting fighter, we need to tread carefully- Bronze Play.

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I have Bermudez in my lineup. He has very good submission game and finishes fights early. He might get overlooked by those less willing to research. Add him

 

1. Jessica Andrade -270 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Mike Perry -275 

3. Angela Hill -160 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Sara McMann-195 

5. Jeremy Stephens -145 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

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6. Eric Shelton +115 

7. Rani Yahya -223 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

8. Manny Bermudez -155 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

9. Ilir Latifi +135 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

10. Renan Barao -149 

11. Marcin Prachnio -229 

12. Ben Saunders +240 

1. Eric Shelton +115 

2. Ilir Latifi +135 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Ben Saunders +240 

4. Jeremy Stephens -145 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Angela Hill -160 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

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bETTING SCENARIOS

 

Exclusive Bet Pack Conent.

Prop Bets

Jessica Andrade to Win by Decision -110 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Andrade is a killer, but her finishes had diminished since she moved up on quality of competition. Torres is double tough and while she won’t be able to match the output or impact of the Brazilian, she will stick around and take it. Play Andrade on the cards.

Ilir Latifi/Ovince St. Preux Total Rounds Under 2.5 +110 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I was initially considering Latifi by decision, but I think the Under 2.5 at plus money is too good to overlook. The kicks of OSP could replicate the issues that Latifi has had in the past and if Ilir gets on top a choke or GNP finish could be close behind. Play the Under.

Mike Perry to Win by TKO/KO/DQ -150 

I considered the Under, but I want to give Perry a little longer like he needed against Danny Roberts. As mentioned before, this is a showcase/squash match that should get Perry another win- all of which have come by knockout to date. Play it.

Brian Kelleher/Renan Barao 

Check the Betting Scenario Section.

Sara McMann to Win by Decision +105 

McMann can finish, but after seeing how her last fight played out I expect her to recommit herself to establishing top control and holding the position to avoid getting put in a tough spot. Reneau can be taken down, but she is pretty tough and should be able to survive, keep Sara in her guard and ride it out.

Angela Hill to Win by Decision -110 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

We have been having success with WMAA decision props. We are rolling with it here. Hill will use volume and movement to win this fight and not commit to power strikes to avoid letting Moroz get her hands on her. Take Hill on the cards.

Marcin Prachnio to Win by Decision +140 

Prachnio is a knockout machine, but making the move to the UFC can result in finishes drying up- at least early on. Alvey isn’t easy to finish, but his offense is frustratingly hit and miss and I am not sure about how his power will hold up at LHW. I like this positive number on the cards with Prachnio just doing more over 15 minutes.

Rani Yahya to Win by Submission +168 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Doane has been submitted on multiple occasions and Yahya is an elite level grappler for as long as his cardio holds up. I see him getting this done with either an RNC or a trinagle choke. Book it.

Alex Perez/Eric Shelton

Check the Betting Scenario Section.

Albert Morales/Manny Bermudez 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Check the Betting Scenario Section.

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