UFC on FOX 27: Jacare vs Brunson 2- Bet Pack Review

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Draftkings Line up

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Kamikaze
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Fighter 1: Derek Brunson $7800 
Fighter 2: Andre Fili $7600 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: Mirsad Bektic $9400 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: Ji Yeon Kim $7000 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 5: Niko Price $9000 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 6: Katlyn Chookagian $8700 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: Drew Dober $8900 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: 
Fighter 3: 
Fighter 4: 
 
 
 

 

Derek Brunson +125 vs Ronaldo Souza -110 

Is Souza on his way down? He is 38 and coming off a pretty rough knockout loss. Brunson is in a better spot in his career both physically and from a skill perspective. Souza is going to struggle to take him down which will in turn expose him to the speed and power of Brunson on the feet. Derek needs to remain technical, but he should eventually find a home for his power. Silver play.

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Brunson has been finishing opponents in almost all of is recent wins. Jacare is coming off a fight where he got knocked out and Brunson’s style of aggressive striking is very capable of replicating those issues. At $7800, Derek is very affordable for a fighter with a high percentage of his wins coming by stoppage. Add him.

Andre Fili +138 vs Dennis Bermudez -145 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Bermudez has all sorts of issues with longer, rangier fighters. If Fili is on his game, he should present a lot of problems for Bermudez. I don’t think Andre will need to grab a finish here to win. His kicking game and the manner in which he gets extension on his strikes should be good enough. Bermudez will have to routinely slide inside and grab takedowns or do a lot of damage, that is going to be easier said than done. At the same time, Fili is a notorious underperformer. I think the good Fili shows up here. Silver play.

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Fili is aggressive and knows how to finish. Couple that with an affordable price tag and Bermudez questionable chin and vulnerable submission defence and its hard not to consider Fili for your lineup. I like him, add him.

Gregor Gillespie -500 vs Jordan Rinaldi +460 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Gillespie’s wrestling and improving striking should carry the day here, but the price is not worth the investment. Pass.

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Despite playing a couple of dogs, Gregor is still too rich for our blood. Pass.

Drew Dober -155 vs Frank Camacho +150 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I really like Dober here. I see some people backing Camacho, but I have been impressed with what Dober has been showing us lately. His power is improving, his volume is there, he is durable, and his wrestling is coming along as well. Camacho tends to slow down at 155, that might not be the case at 170- but I still like Dober to outwork him. Watch for Drew’s kicks to keep Frank just out of boxing range. Gold Play.

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Camacho is a tough out. Not impossible, but I feel like Dober is a solid secondary option for your lineup.

Bobby Green -145 vs Erik Koch +135 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Both guys are trying to get back to their best. Green has been facing better competition during his current slump and I think that is noteworthy. I also think he presents the issues that Koch has struggled with. Green offers volume and Koch tends to be too inactive between attacks. Green also can wrestle which is an area Koch struggles with. This could come down to a close decision and if that is the case I don’t think Koch has the style to edge it out. Gold Play on Green.

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I’ll pass on Green, I don’t see him finishing Koch. Your money is better spent elsewhere.

Godofredo Pepey +450 vs Mirsad Bektic -525 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Nothing here, especially with the outcome of Bektic’s last fight.

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I do have Mirsad in my Fantasy lineup. The guy carries a torrid pace and Pepey has been finished twice from top position. I think Beks gets him from the top with his hefty GNP. Add him.

Katlyn Chookagian -140 vs Mara Romero Borella +130 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Chook is better suited for 125. She isn’t going to get physically overwhelmed here, not that she was at 135. Borella is very dangerous on the mat, but I don’t see her tracking Katyln down and then taking her down. Chook should be able to piece here up from the outside with relative ease. Gold Play.

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I have Chookagian in my lineup. She doesn’t have a lot of power, but it will carry better against lighter fighters. Borella has been stopped on multiple occassions, so that adds to the appeal. Look for the volume to be the key here with Chookagian landing close to 125 significant strikes in a one-sided decision win. Add her.

Juliana Lima +138 vs Randa Markos -145 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is another fight that will hinge on the approach taken by our fighter. The key for Markos is activity. She has to stay active on the feet and if Lima takes her down, she needs to be active off her back to score points and keep Lima from getting comfortable. If Markos can do what she did against a top control monster like Esparza, she should be able to do it here too. Gold Play.

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I don’t see a finish coming in this fight, no Fantasy play for me.

Joaquim Silva +100 vs Vinc Pichel -103 

This is going to be an interesting fight. Pichel relies on power and wrestling. Silva was taken down in his last fight, but kept getting up and won against a better wrestler. Silva has also never been knocked out. Conversely, Pichel has a tendency to get outworked when he sits back and lets his opponent bring the action to him. Silva will do that. He is the more dynamic striker and should offer the greater volume. This will still be a close fight, Bronze play.

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No Play here.

Ji Yeon Kim +240 vs Justin Kish -250 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Big upset play here. Kish’s approach hinges on her being able to outmuscle her opponent. Moving up a weight class to face an opponent moving down a weight class is going to make that tough. Kim throws better combinations, in greater volume, and is good from top position. Kish is going to struggle to get out of bad spots on the mat like she did against Felice. On the feet, Kim will be more active and accurate. We are still figuring Kim out and the divisional changes are big here, Bronze play.

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Kim is very cheap which is reason #1 to play her. I think her volume will be there against Kish who is willing to get hit. I also think the takedowns will be there as well. I don’t expect a finish, but the price and point potential combo offers enough to consider it.

George Sullivan +290 vs Niko Price -250 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Price should take this fight for a variety of reason; both skill and scenario related. Sullivan is older and has been out for a while. Price has been active and is coming off his first loss which should motivate him to do better. In the cage, Price is the more dynamic striker and should have a speed advantage. Sullivan could win if he can hurt him and or turn it into a brawl against a fighter that sometimes gets off to a slow start. Silver Play.

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I do have Price is my lineup. I feel that this is the type of fight where an older fighter returns to competition after a layoff and gets smashed. The older the fighter, the harder it is to compete if you don’t remain active. Price has good power and does a good job of remaining active. I think he can get the stoppage here. Add him.

Austin Arnett +190 vs Cory Sandhagen -205 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

No play here. Too many unknown elements here. Time to move on.

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Same as above.

 

1. Mirsad Bektic -525 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Gregor Gillespie -500 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Niko Price -250 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Katlyn Chookagian -140 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Drew Dober -155 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

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6. Randa Markos -145 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

7. Andre Fili +138 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

8. Bobby Green -145 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

9. Derek Brunson +125 

10. Joaquim Silva +100 

11. Ji Yeon Kim +240 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

12. Cory Sandhagen -205 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

1. Ji Yeon Kim +240 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Andre Fili +138 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Derek Brunson +125 

4. Joaquim Silva +100 

5. Katlyn Chookagian -140 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Betting Scenario Section.

Prop Bets

Derek Brunson/Ronaldo Souza 

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Andre Fili/Dennis Bermudez Total Rounds Under 2.5 +169 

Of their combined 12 defeats, 10 have come inside the distance. They also have 18 combined stoppage victories under their belts. Bermudez’s chin is my main target here, but he also hits hard and is capable over overwhelming his opponent when he is on his game. Take the under in a fight that should be a war.

Bobby Green/Erik Koch 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Mirsad Bektic to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +135 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Bektic likes to smash, especially from top position. Pepey loves to operate off his back and will pull guard early and often. This has resulted in him getting stopped on 2 occasions from top position. I think Bektic makes it a third. Even if he doesn’t do it early through sheer force, his pace will exhaust Pepey and make it difficult for him to go the entire 3 rounds.

Katlyn Chookagian to Win by Decision +150 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Chook has gone the distance in 6 of 9 wins and has just a single finish in her last 6 outings. While Borella has been stopped on a couple of occasions, I see Chookagian working from the outside and winning this fight on volume and defence. Take her on the cards.

George Sullivan/Niko Price 

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Austin Arnett/Cory Sandhagen

See the Betting Scenario Section.

KAMIKAZE OVERDRIVE LOGO White