UFC on FOX 22: VanZant vs Waterson- “Lethal and Lovely”

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Another installment of UFC on FOX is in the books. The show included Michelle Waterson staking her claim as a legit title contender. Mickey Gall picked up arguably his first legit UFC victory. And we saw the end of the career of Urijah Faber. Let’s take a look at what fights should be made next for the main card competitors.

Michelle Waterson vs Jessica Andrade

Waterson put her name on the map in a big way and should look to capitalize with a quick turnaround. Andrade was pulled from UFC 207, but should be available for a card in early in 2017. The winner of that fight could be pushed as the next 115-pound title challenger.

Paige VanZant vs Tecia Torres

PVZ simply never got out of the starting gates after a making a big mistake. Torres and PVZ have already fought once, with Tecia getting her hand raised. Both girls are looking for an opportunity to get back on track and a win over the other would be a step in the right direction.

Mickey Gall vs Mitch Clarke

Gall called out Dan Hardy, which was appropriately squashed by “the Outlaw”. If he is cutting to Lightweight Mitch Clarke is a decent first opponent. Clarke is serviceable, but also quite vulnerable on the mat. His win over Iaquinta gives his name a little extra notoriety and Gall should be able to handle him.

Sage Northcutt vs Cezar Arzamendia

Northcutt is clearly at a loss once taken down. If the UFC wants to keep him from getting crushed, without cutting him loose, they need to pick his opponents wisely. Arzamendia isn’t much of a takedown threat and his inability to take a punch makes him a prime target to get “Super” Sage back on track. I almost feel guilty making the fight, but it is what it is.

Urijah Faber: Retirement

Faber goes out on top with a victory, nearly scoring the early stoppage. He was unable to capture a UFC title belt, but he leaves the game as an all-time great.

Brad Picket vs Manny Gamburyan

Facing a legend at home in his final fight is a tough scenario to deal with, but Pickett put forth the best he had to offer. Gamburyan is another veteran fighter that isn’t going to crack the top 15 again and is a very winnable fight for the Brit.

Alan Jouban vs Magny/Hendricks Winner

Jouban continues to pick up big wins outside of the Top 15, but he needs to be given a chance to grab some digits. Magny and Hendricks face off at UFC 207 and the winner will be in the middle of the rankings. The winner of this fight won’t have a tonne of momentum and probably shouldn’t be rewarded with a fight above them, instead having to fend off an unranked foe trying to stake his claims seems more appropriate.

Mike Perry vs Warlley Alves

Perry is one of my least favourite fighters on the roster. Alves is a tough out and would be a solid test for Perry. Let’s send him to Brazil.

Final Thoughts

There was some pretty decent action on Saturday night with a couple bout of significance. Overall, I feel like Fox’s cards ranked 3rd of my type of cards to look forward too with PPVs and Fight Nights ahead and TUF Finales just behind. I just haven’t been that excited for the FOX cards of late, the UFC needs to pick it up. UFC 207 is on deck and the final event of 2016. It will feature the return of Ronda Rousey and possibly the end of Ronda Rousey. We’ll see.

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Depending on your betting style, you can select the Big Bank Roll Parlays which employs a betting strategy focussed on straight and 2-leg parlays that limit the risk and offer a decent return based on your financial commitment. If you are willing to take a little more risk and aren’t interested in putting as much cash in play, but still want a shot at a big return- then the Big Risk/ Big Reward Parlays are for you. Playing both of these strategies together is not recommended.

 

 

 

Draftkings Line up

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Fighter 1: Paige VanZant $8300 
Fighter 2: Mike Perry $8500 
Fighter 3: Scott Holtzman $7500 
Fighter 4: James Moontasri $7800 
Fighter 5: Colby Covington $8900 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 6: Luis Henrique Da Silva $9000 
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: Mickey Gall $8200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med 
Fighter 2: Irene Aldana $9100 
Fighter 3: Eddie Wineland $8800 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: 
 
 
 

 

Michell Waterson +100 vs Paige VanZant -107 

I like PVZ here. The last card was further proof that a superior fighter can lose a bout simply because of a mass layoff. Jordan Mein was a pefect example and long layoffs also appeared to hurt Kennedy and Gagnon. Waterson has been out for a while and stylisitcally she is dangerous, but PVZ is a handful. I don’t like how Waterson routinely winds up in bad spots on the mat and then tries to work out of them. That is tough to do over a 5-round fight. With Waterson not a big SW, Paige should find success overwhelming her in close. This should be an entertaining scrap, but I favour VanZant over a longer bout. I have her in a Gold parlay with a solid price.

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I had Paige as a sub before making the switch with Gall. She could score a late stoppage or compile a lot of points over 5-rounds. Possibly a combination of the two. She gets the nod here over Gall because she is simply a more known commodity and has an extra 2-rounds to work with.

Mickey Gall -107 vs Sage Northcutt +100 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

For the first time, Gall is facing a UFC opponent with a pro win on his record. Stylistically, he is a bad matchup for Sage. Northcutt has struggled on the mat and Gall is quite capable on the ground. Additionally, this fight is taking place at WW and Sage could have some issues with the size of his opponent. The lack of experience keeps this play from being a top pick, but a Silver bet in an option here. I will also look at a stoppage prop.

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Gall knows how to finish and can finish fast. He was in my initial lineup, but if Sage can keep this fight standing he could completely shut Mickey out. He is a sub.

Brad Pickett +363 vs Urijah Faber -385 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

No Play here on Faber straight up. I will look at a prop bet instead.

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Same here. Urijah has a good chance to finish, but he is too expensive.

Alan Jouban +115 vs Mike Perry -126 

When fighters match up fairly evenly, I like to go with the younger man or the better chin. Perry has both of those in his favour. Jouban has been hurt in a number of recent fights and if Perry connects, he might not be able to recover. Perry isn’t my favourite fighter, but he continues to improve. His confidence and aggression will carry him past the kicks of Jouban into punching range for the finish. Silver Play.

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Perry has been putting the stamp on opponents all his career, including in his UFC run. We needed finishers and that is what he does. Lock him up.

Luis Henrique da Silva -205 vs Paul Craig +195 

Da Silva is still developing, but he is the more well-rounded and experienced fighter here. Not to mention Craig is debuting, hasn’t fought in 13-months and is accustomed to shorter fights. If he can’t get Luis out of their quickly, he is tailor made to start to fade in round 2 and get finished himself. Da Silva continues to impress. Gold Play.

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“Frankenstein” is a high volume, all offense and forget the defense type of striker. That is usually a concern, but I don’t see Craig packing enough of a punch to capitalize. Based on the scenario above, if Craig survives round 1 he is in perfect position to get finished in round 2. Da Silva gets it done.

Cole Miller +100 vs Mizuto Hirota -110 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Cole is quite distraught with his current state and that is going to impact his training. How focused is he when he is questioning his desire to continue fighting? Hirota has been out for a while, but I see him getting the better of the striking exchanges and routinely shucking off Miller’s attempts to get the fight to the floor. The prolong bout of inactivity has me leaning towards a Bronze play.

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Nothing play here.

Bryan Barberena +309 vs Colby Covington -340 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

No Play on the side bet, but there is Prop money to be had here.

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Covington can finish and has shown that on multiple occasions. Regardless, he gets pegged as a boring grinder and combined with his heavy price it will scare a lot of people away. I have him in my lineup because he can put guys away and if not, he will score points with takedowns 4-6 completions = 20-30 points. He is also active on top with passes and strikes. Lots of upside and potential for unique points. Play him.

Alex Morono -104 vs James Moontasri +100 

I think we are getting a little value here on Moontasri. I had him as a slight fav, which could still be the case if the line moves. He is the far superior striker and Morono hasn’t shown me the overwhelming wrestling attack that James has struggled with in the past. If contested on the feet, “Moonwalker” gets the better of him. The price bump has me backing Moontasri has one of my Gold plays.

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At $7800, we are getting a deal here. Moontasri has multiple UFC finishes and could pick up another here. His sub $8000 price tag frees up a little cash to go after the more expensive fish.

Josh Emmett -175 vs Scott Holtzman +165 

I like Holtzman here. Emmett looked good, but it was against a pretty lackluster performance from a guy I have never been that impressed with in Tuck. Holtzman is aggressive and Emmett will struggle with the forward pressure. I liked the improvements that Holtzman made heading into his last fight and I think he gets it done in a close and entertaining fight. Forward pressure and more consistent output will be the keys to his success.

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The price is a bargain and along with Moontasri, allows us to play the higher price options on our list. Holtzman can finish and hits pretty hard overall. He needs to keep a constant output. I am not looking for 100 points here, but a decision win with a decent activity level could net 75-85 points which is solid for a 6th fighter.

Irene Aldana -288 vs Leslie Smith +263 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

No Play here on Aldana. She is debuting and facing a pretty tough hombre in Smith. Leslie will engage her and doesn’t wrestling, which is perfect for Irene. My big concern comes into play if Smith gets the bout into round 2 and Aldana starts to fade. Possible counter bet on Smith as a result.

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Aldana is a sub. She is very expensive, but has a number of early stoppages. The jump to the UFC can extend fight time and see a drop off in finishing rate, which is why I didn’t play here.

Eddie Wineland -211 vs Takeya Mizugaki +195 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

If Mizugaki can avoid exposing himself to taking too much damage he could grind out a decision. Wineland is pretty tough to takedown, which has been a key to Mizugaki’s success, but Wineland needs to stay active on the feet. The chin of Mizugaki is the big issue and I think Wineland cracks it. That being said, I’m not willing to risk it. I might take a shot at a prop though.

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Wineland is a sub. He can finish and Mizugaki can be finished. At $8800 he could replace Covington, but I like Colby simply because he has more ways to score points.

Fredy Serrano +110 vs Hector Sandoval -118 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Not a huge fan of Serrano. He came to the sport too late and that is magnified by the fact that he competes in a lighter weight class. Sandoval’s debut was brief and I expect a better performance here. His physical shortcomings won’t be nearly as magnified here which will help. Bronze play.

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Pass.

Bojan Velickovic -147 vs Sultan Aliev +138 

I have read that a lot of people are on Aliev here, which I can understand. I was impressed with Velikovic in his last outing and I expect to see him continue to improve. Aliev has been out of action for a long time, which is a scenario that needs to be faded. Silver Play.

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Pass.

1. Urijah Faber -385 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Colby Covington -340 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Luis Henrique da Silva -205 

4. Paige VanZant -107

5. Eddie Wineland -211 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

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6. Irene Aldana -288 

7.  James Moontasri +100 

8. Mickey Gall -107 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

9. Mike Perry -126 

10. Bojan Velickovic -147 

11. Hector Sandoval -118 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

12. Mizuto Hirota -110 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

13. Scott Holtzman +165 

1. Scott Holtzman +165 

2. James Moontasri +100 

3. Paige VanZant -107 

4. Mickey Gall -107 

5. Urijah Faber to Win by Submission +200 

1. Leslie Smith +263: 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med If Aldana has any issues if she is unable to secure the early finish, Smith has the style that could take over a fight in the second half. After finishing multiple opponents in Invicta, a slight step up could be interesting for the heavily faved debutant.

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Information.

Prop Bets

 

Michell Waterson/Paige VanZant Total Rounds Under 4.5 +130 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Both ladies can finish and both can ben finished. With almost 5 rounds to get the job done, I like the under here. Both girls like to fight in close which will put them at the forefront of their opponent’s strengths. I expect to see this bout contested on the mat where Waterson could snatch up a submission or PVZ could completely wear her out and get a stoppage.

Mickey Gall/Sage Northcutt Total Rounds Under 1.5 -117 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Gall has never seen a second round and will be looking to continue that run. Northcutt has 7 wins on his record that hit the Under 1.5 mark. If he thwarts the early onslaught from Gall he could put the lesser experienced fighter in some bad spots that he has never been in before. That can be tough to deal with for the first time, especially on such a big stage. Both men will be looking to impress in their co-main event spot. I think Gall taps him, but this play keeps Sage’s skills in our corner as well.

Urijah Faber to Win by Submission +200 

Faber is fighting at home and will want to go out on top. The numbers suggest that this is the play to make; Faber has 19 submission wins and Pickett has been subbed 5-times. Of Faber’s 9 wins in the UFC, 6 have come by sub. Faber gets the better of the wrestling exchanges, eventually works to back control and locks up the RNC to ride off into the sunset. Can’t turn down plus money here.

Mike Perry Wins by KO/TKO/DQ +155 

Perry has yet to win a fight by anything outside of a submission. I considered playing the Under, but we could see another late stoppage. Jouban has been hurt in almost all of his UFC bouts and stopped by Tumenov. Perry continues his winning ways with another stoppage.

Luis Henrique da Silva/Paul Craig 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Colby Covington to Win by Submission +550 

Barberena is a tough nut to crack, but Covington can really put it on his opponent and break them to point where a stoppage materializes. He has picked up 6 submission wins for his career and 4 of his last 6 wins have come via tap out. Barberena has spent some time on his back and if Covington can take him down, he can submit him. Great odds for a shot at the submission win.

Irene Aldana to Win By Decision +164 

Aldana has power and has been stopping people left, right, and center. Smith has been stopped twice in her career by Cyborg and a freak ear explosion against Eye. Both unique circumstances. Smith is double tough and taking a step up in competition usually results in a bit of a drop off in finishes. I like the fight to go the distance with Irene simply being the more impactful striker over 15 minutes.

Eddie Wineland to Win by KO/TKO/DQ +165 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Mizugaki’s chin is a bit of a growing concern and Wineland is one of the hardest hitters in the division. Wineland has 13-career wins by knockout and while he could take a decision win here, the more likely finish comes via knockout.

Fredy Serrano/Hector Sandoval

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Bojan Velickovic/Sultan Aliev

See the Betting Scenario Section.

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