UFC on FOX 21: Condit vs Maia- ‘Natural Born Submission Machine’

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There was a time where favourites dominated the main events and the final outcome was all but certain before the fighters hit the cage. That isn’t the case anymore as Maia became the seventh underdog or near pick’em fighter to win a UFC main event over the last 3-months.  UFC on FOX 21 wasn’t a huge card, but it certainly had its moments. The Bet Pack fell short of cashing on the Gold parlay by just a single leg in a fight that I felt we should have won. There are some interesting storylines coming out the Vancouver card, let’s take a look at my winners and losers from Saturday night.

Winners Demian Maia

Maia picks up what should be a title shot clinching victory over a very dangerous opponent and he did it with relative ease. Maia’s BJJ is elite and if he can get you down he can beat you. No questions asked.

Anthony Pettis

It wasn’t easy, but ‘Showtime’ got the job done in a must-win fight. The weight cut didn’t look easy for the former Champion and I’m not sure how he fares against the upper echelon of the division, but submitting Charles Oliveira is a nice start.

Paige VanZant

PVZ struggled early to find her rhythm, which could be tied to the layoff, but I don’t think anyone saw that finish coming. VanZant still has a long way to go, but with proper match-making she should continue to develop with getting too much too soon (ie Rose Namajunas).

Jim Miller

Miller is a winner here only because he got his hand raised. The first round was close, but won by Jim and he started strong in round 2. That is when Lauzon took over, having some success on the feet and controlling the action on the mat. I had Lauzon winning 29-28.  Good scrap nonetheless and it is nice to see Miller put a couple of wins together.

Sam Alvey

The action was pretty slow going at first, but Alvey waited for his moment and eventually started to open up as he sensed Casey was slowing down. Alvey’s style isn’t that fun to watch when he isn’t knocking guys out.

Alessio Di Chirico

A big win for Alessio, especially considering everything that is going on in Italy. McLellan gave him more trouble than I expected, but at the same time there were moments where if Di Chirico had poured it on he probably could have nabbed the finish.

Felipe Silva

A nice win for Silva to start his UFC run with. The Brazilian cracked Campbell with some hard shots both to the body and chin.

Chad Laprise

After missing weight and with back to back losses, the TUF Nations winner had his back against the wall. Nothing like a knockout while moving backwards to help right the ship.

Losers Carlos Condit

The post-title fight loss letdown is real. If he wasn’t able to stay vertical, Condit needed to survive the early onslaught and rally late. The former WEC champion was unable to accomplish step 1. Carlos looked very dejected after the fight, which is a hard result to swallow considering many felt he beat Robbie Lawler for the title one loss earlier. His style will make him a fan favourite for however long he continues, but the door could be shut on a future title shot.

Charles Oliveira

‘Do Bronx’ got cracked with some big shots, but he found a lot of success with his ground game and had his moments on the mat. I felt he was heading towards a victory if he could have finished the final frame strong. Adding a name like Pettis to his resume would have been huge. Opportunity lost.

Bec Rawling

Bec had some decent success early, but that was a wicked knockout loss that certainly will push her down the ranks.

Joe Lauzon

Lauzon let Miller land some big power shots, but I still feel he did enough to earn the decision. Considering the amount of damage he took, that is a hard fight to lose. Bust my Gold Parlay.

Kevin Casey

Casey’s ability to win fights at this level is pretty limited. He either exhausts himself trying to get the fight to the mat or exhausts himself working to hold top position. I can’t image him sticking around for another Octagon showing.

Garreth McLellan

This was easily the most entertaining UFC fight that McLellan has been a part of. It might even have been enough to save his job despite his 1-3 record.

Shane Campbell

The Canadian was simply too relaxed and let his opponent put it on him with minimal response. That will probably be the curtain call on Campbell’s UFC run.

Thibault Gouti

He picks up a little extra cash with Laprise coming in heavy, but 0-3 with a trio a of finishes will most likely cost the Frenchman his job.

Final Thoughts

Maia looked good and at his age he is 100% within his right to sit and wait for a title shot. Hopefully, Wonderboy/Woodley goes down clean and we get to see the next title fight in early 2017. I haven’t put too much thought into it, but both Woodley and Thompson presents interesting challenges for Maia. I’m not sure who would be a better matchup for him at this point. Pettis gets a much-needed win, but I still have my questions about his long-term future at 145 pounds. I went 6-4, could have easily been 7-3 with a much better result coming out of the Bet Pack. That is a tough one to swallow. On to Germany next!

BET PACK 2

Parlay Header

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Paige VanZant -205 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: Sam Alvey to Win by TKO/KO +110 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 3: Joe Lauzon -137 
Selection 4: Alessio Di Chirico -220 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: +686 Bet: 12 units
Payout: 82.34 units
 
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Demian Maia +113 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: Charles Oliveira +186 
Selection 3: Kyle Bochniak -180 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 4: Shane Campbell -125 
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Price: +1606  x Bet: 8 units 
Payout: 128.46 units
 
 
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Parlay #1- UPDATED
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Selection 1: Paige VanZant -205 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: Alex Ricci +155 
Selection 3: Chad Laprise to Win by Decision -110 
Selection 4: Charles Oliveira to Win by Submission +450 
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Price: +3884  x Bet: 7 units
Payout: 271.85 units
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Joe Lauzon -137 
Selection 2: Kyle Bochniak -180 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 3: Shane Campbell -125 
Selection 4: Alessio Di Chirico -220 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 5: Kevin Casey/Sam Alvey Total Rounds Under 1.5 +175 
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Price: +1838  x Bet: 9 units 
Payout: 165.38 units
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Carlos Condit/Demian Maia Doesn’t Go to Decision -149 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: Jim Miller/Joe Lauzon Under 2.5 Rounds +100 
Selection 3: Alessio Di Chirico To Win by TKO/KO/DQ +190 
Selection 4: Sam Alvey to Win by TKO/KO +110 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: +1935  x Bet: 8 units 
Payout: 154.84 units

 

Draftkings Line up

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Kamikaze -UPDATED
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Fighter 1: Paige VanZant $10800 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Joe Lauzon $10300 
Fighter 3: Sam Alvey $10200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: Shane Campbell $8800 
Fighter 5: Kyle Bochniak $9300 (replaced Hunter) 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Overdrive
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Fighter 1: Demian Maia $960012379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Charles Oliveira $9000 
Fighter 3: Sam Alvey $10200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: Alessio Di Chirico $11000 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 5: Chad Laprise $9900 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Salary Remaining:  
 

 

Carlos Condit -120 vs Demian Maia +113 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Condit is far and away the more dangerous striker. No question. His vulnerability to takedown oriented fighters is difficult to overlook. Maia is arguably the most takedown hungry fighter he has ever fought and that says a lot considering NBK has fought GSP and Big Rigg. Maia doesn’t have the striking skills to entertaining the idea of getting drawn into striking exchanges, he is going to shoot, shoot, and shoot some more or clich and go from there. The general concensus is that Condit is going to struggle early, but then rally late as Maia fades in rounds 3-5 leading to a decision or stoppage win for Carlos. Yes, that very well could happen. Maia’s cardio isn’t great, but he has shown the ability to still be capable of out-grappling his foe even when tired. He just needs to get his hands on his foe to get them down. A submission is also a possibility as Maia is capable of overwhelming Condit on the mat and might recognize the need for finish against such a dangerous foe. Condit is coming off of a title fight letdown and that can have a massive effect on his performance- see Holly Holm. I like Maia at plus money in the Silver Parlay. I also would consider a Counter Bet on Condit by knockout. More on that later.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Maia closes the show as part of Team Overdrive. At just $9600, he is affordable and will be the less popular fantasy pick in the main event. Over 5-rounds Maia can pile up points with his takedowns, positional advances, and strikes. He isn’t going to blow you out of the water with his striking volume, but it will add to his grappling-based points. I also can easily see him getting Condit’s back for the finish which will put up points. His inexpensive price tag makes other fighters affordable as well

Anthony Pettis -180 vs Charles Oliveira +186 

Back to back upsets to end the card? I like it. Weight and more specifically weight-cutting is going to be a big factor here. A screen capture from an interview that Pettis recently did pop up and he looks rough. Very gaunt, very drained, and we aren’t even to Friday yet. I didn’t feel he had a lot of room to get down to 145, similar to Kenny Florian who stated that the cut to 145 was brutal. If Pettis is drained, he is going to struggle to keep up with Oliveira who carries a pretty steady pace. Matching the output of his foe has been an issue for Pettis, that won’t get easier against faster opponents after cutting more weight. The weight factor for the Brazilian could also be an issue as he has had trouble making 145. He came in at 150.5 for his last bout and while Pettis will be desperate to make FW, Oliveira seems to know when to shut it down instead of draining himself too much. I like the constant flow between grappling and striking to wear down Pettis. Whether Oliveira catches him with a sub early or just keeps chaining transitions together, he will overwhelm the former champ on the mat. The question of Oliveira’s durability certainly leaves him vulnerable, but I think he avoids the early danger and takes over the fight on his terms. Silver Parlay.

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‘Do Bronx’ joins his fellow Brazilian on Team Overdrive. He has multiple avenues to score points- via submission, takedowns, transitions, even his striking volume is decent. Most players will be riding with the former Champion here, especially based on Oliveira’s last performance. That should magnify the quality of the points that Charles’s puts on the board. Pettis hasn’t impressed me of late and beating up his body to get down to 145 isn’t going to fix that.

Bec Rawling +201 vs Paige VanZant -205 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

PVZ is looking to rebound and Sean Shelby and the UFC are giving her a favourable matchup to do so. Bec doesn’t have the type of wrestling to challenge PVZ on the mat and her cardio makes it even less likely she will be able to do it over a full 3-rounds. PVZ makes her share of mistakes, but I expect she will be able to work her way out of them versus Rawlings. Following the loss and layoff, PVZ will be more motivated to get the job done. Rawling had issues with the speed and volume of her last opponent, and while PVZ lacks the striking refinement of Ham, her physicality will make up for it. Gold Parlay leg.

Draft-Kings-Logo

PVZ fights to overwhelm her opponent, leading to either a stoppage or big points based on output. Prior to the Rose fight, PVZ put up 61, 67, 73 significant strikes and 8 takedowns over those 3 fights. Rawlings gave up 92 strikes against Ham, so she is certainly available to be hit and her TDD isn’t great. PVZ offers the perfect storm of output and finishing ability- Team Kamikaze.

Jim Miller +138 vs Joe Lauzon -137 

The first fight was awesome and there will be a rematch prop coming your way. Both men are on the downward slide of their careers, but based on what I have seen Lauzon isn’t quite as far on the down slide just yet. Miller won the first fight with his early pressure and pace along with a hefty dose of accurate combination striking. I don’t see that being the case this time around. Miller has slowed down, his cardio is as good, and neither is his striking. In addition to all of that, he isn’t as durable but is still just as reckless. I see Lauzon weathering the early storm, turning the tide in his favour and either winning a decision as the more active fighter or finishing Miller on the mat with strikes or a sub. Gold Parlay.

Draft-Kings-Logo

This fight should be a war and Lauzon will score. His volume isn’t super overwhelming and he doesn’t put up huge takedown numbers, but the combination of everything with his ability to finish makes him very playable. Lauzon has stopped his opponent in 25 of his 26 win while Miller has suffered all 3 of his stoppage defeats over the span of his last 5 losses.  Let’s go Joe! Team Kamikaze.

Kevin Casey +191 vs Sam Alvey -199 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I keep looking at this line and trying to figure out how it’s not sitting somewhere around the -300 or higher mark for Alvey. Thre are very few scenarios where Casey wins this fight. Even if he gets off to a good start, he is going to gas and Alvey is going to hammer him into oblivion. Alvey’s TDD is going enough to force Casey to work and even if he drops the opening round, King will slow down and Sam will tee off. Gold Play, possibly replacing the side with a prop.

Draft-Kings-Logo

10200?! Really what a deal. He doesn’t throw with volume and Alvey isn’t a takedown machine. He just flat out hits home runs. Alvey wins this fight with a knockout, most likely in the opening round, maybe the 2nd at worst. I assume he will be used by most players, but his below expectation price makes him too good to pass on. I’ve got him on both teams.

Enrique Barzola +174 vs Kyle Bochniak -180 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I was impressed with Bochniak in his short-notice debut against a bigger fighter. Barzola is a more appropriate opponent for the current stage of his career. Bochniak is training with Peter Welch, so expect his boxing to continue to make improvements. Most notably his footwork. Barzola is going to look for TDs early and often and I expect te combo of Kyle’s movement and TDD will make it hard for him to land with consistency. Bochniak should get the better of the striking exchanges here and take a decision. He falls to a Silver play on account of his lack of a win at the UFC level.

Draft-Kings-Logo

UPDATE- With Hunter off the card, Bochniak takes his place. Of all the available fighters, he has unqiue point potential and fits the budget.

Alessio Di Chirico -220 vs Garreth McLellan +231 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

McLellan hasn’t impressed me at all and is probably making his last walk to the Octagon. Di Chirico has a lot more upside and should have no issue taking out the Sout African. Whether on the mat or with his striking, Alessio will be in complete control for however long this fight lasts. I would have no problem throwing him into my Gold parlay, but I don’t want to add a fifth leg- so Silver parlay for the Italian.

*Update: Di Chirico and Campbell switch places Gold to Silver.

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He is far from a big name fighter and at 0-1 in the UFC with just 37.5 pts in his debut, few will be lining up to pay for his $11000 price tag. He has finished his foe in 8 of his 9 wins; 4 subs and 4 knockouts. I didn’t like the way McLellan reacted to getting hit by Cedenblad and he looked lost working off his back in his debut. Alessio finishes him or puts up big points with volume and TDs- maybe a combo of accumulation and a finish. Team Overdrive.

Felipe Silva +118 vs Shane Campbell -125 

Let’s take a moment to marvel at the fact that Silva has no nickname and all indications are that his name is Felipe Silva, which isn’t a shorten version of his actual name. That is rare for a Brazilain. That being said, Campbell should take this. If not, he will be let go. On the feet Campbell is more than capable of holding his own, especially if he works at a high rate of output. Arguably the most important aspect will be the grappling. Campbell lost his last 2 fights on the basis of his defensive work on the mat. Silva doesn’t appear to be a big ground threat and Campbell should be able to go offensive like he did against Silverio. At this price its a Gold Play for the Canadian.

*Update: Di Chirico and Campbell switch places Silver to Gold.

Draft-Kings-Logo

It’s a trap! Is it a trap? Wow, $8800 to put Campbell in your fantasy lineup? That seems way too low considering he is the betting favourite. The betting line has moved down since it opened, but nowhere near this level. Campbell’s finishing numbers aren’t great, but he could still get the job done. His volume has been there though, especially in the Krause fight. At this price, he is a worthwhile investment against a debuting fighter. Team Kamikaze.

Chad Laprise -275 vs Thibault Gouti +265 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Gouti had his moments against OAM, but I think they were a product of OAM’s still developing striking repertoire. If he can maintain constant pressure on Laprise he could squeak out a victory, but I struggle to see Chad not changing levels for a takedown if that happens. Chad might not need his wrestling though as I feel he is the better striker as well. All that considered, I don’t feel the need to use a side bet on Laprise on my bet card, maybe a prop at best.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I am a little surprised here that Laprise is sitting at $9900 for this fight. He is a slight Fantasy Fav compared to the betting line. Gouti has been finished in both of his UFC bouts which makes a third time a legit possibility. Laprise has power as he showed on TUF and certainly can finish. If we do go the distance, look for Chad to pile up the significant strikes (71, 84, 78 are his top 3 UFC outputs) and mix in a takedown or 2. Team Overdrive.

Adam Hunter -157 vs Ryan Janes +145 -CANCELLED

Talk about a pair of huge EPU candidates to open the card. More on that later. From what I have watched and read, I like Hunter. If Janes can drag this fight into the second half he could take it over, but getting there is no guarantee. Even if he does get to round 2 and 3, Hunter could still be there throwing bombs. Normally, the rule is grappler over striker when looking at developing fighters, but we have seen a shift away from that of late. Hunter keeps it standing and blasts through Janes’s striking D. Lots of unknowns, Bronze play.

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At $9700 and with his history of quick finishes, Hunter is certainly playable. Look for him to come out aggressive and blast Janes early who could suffer from some ring rust after a 13-month layoff. Team Kamikaze.

 

Alex Ricci +155 vs Jeremy Kennedy -152 

I had to get some help here. Good footage of Ricci available, but not much of Kennedy. I sent a Twitter message to Robin Black who has done PbP for Ricci in recent action told me that Alex should completely outclass Kennedy, if Alex comes to fight. Ricci has known to underachieve at times. If that is the case here, Kennedy will simply out work him. I think Ricci is a much more complete fighter and a more battle-tested veteran. Playing the EPU factors here on the late notice fighter that comes in loose and ready to go. Bronze Play.

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Nothing here. Ricci has seen a lot of decisions of late and is volume isn’t always dependable.

 

1. Sam Alvey -199 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Paige VanZant -205 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Alessio Di Chirico -220 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Chad Laprise -275 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Joe Lauzon -137 

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6. Shane Campbell -125 

7. Kyle Bochniak -180 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

8. Charles Oliveira +186 

9. Demian Maia +113 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

10. Adam Hunter -157- CANCELLED

11. Alex Ricci +155 

1. Charles Oliveira +186 

2. Demian Maia +113 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Kevin Casey/Sam Alvey Total Rounds Under 1.5 +175 

4. Joe Lauzon -137 

5. Alex Ricci +155 

1. Carlos Condit to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +250:  If you are going to bet Condit to win it should be by knockout. He isn’t taking a decision because either Maia will trump him with TDs or if Carlos hits him enough to win on the scorecards, he will probably stop Maia.

2.Thibault Gouti +265:  After seeing Laprise miss weight a small bet might be worth a shot on Gouti. The Frenchman hasn’t impressed me of late, but if Chad is compromised by the weight cut he could slow down.

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Information.

 

Prop Bets

 

Carlos Condit/Demian Maia Doesn’t Go to Decision -149 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Both fighters can finish and this bet keeps that fact in play. I considering the Under, but it might take Condit to the 5th round to land that finishing blow as Maia tires. He could also land it very early! I’m banking on Condit coming out flat, his below average TDD putting him in some bad spots, and Maia eventually getting his back and synching in the choke. Most scenarios suggest that this fight isn’t going the distance.

Charles Oliveira to Win by Submission +450 

Physically, Pettis looked horrible in recent footage. The cut to 145 appears to be taking a lot out of him. Oliveira carries a pretty steady pace, striking, moving to grappling, and back. His ability to create submission opportunities out of nowhere makes this play such a great opportunity. He put Jury away which was darn impressive and tapping out Hioki was a testament to his skill. Once Pettis starts to slow down, look for Do Bronx to grab a choke for the finish.

Jim Miller/Joe Lauzon 

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Kevin Casey/Sam Alvey 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Alessio Di Chirico To Win by TKO/KO/DQ +190 

Alessio’s striking looked significantly improved in his debut and 3 of his last 4 finishes have been by knockout. McLellan’s striking is pretty weak and I don’t see him having the skills to take Di Chirico down and keep him there. The South African didn’t respond well to getting tagged by Cedenblad and just shut down leading to the stoppage. The biggest threat to this play is that Di Chirico looks to exploit the poor TDD of his opponent and grinds out a decision or submission win.

Chad Laprise to Win by Decision -110 

Laprise has won 5 consecutive decisions, with his last pro win inside the distance coming back in 2012 for Bellator. Gouti has been finished in both of his UFC fights, but both came via submission and that isn’t a specialty of Chad. I don’t like the side bet where with the line being too steep on the Canuck, but I will take a shot here.

Adam Hunter/Ryan Janes

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Alex Ricci/Jeremy Kennedy 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

KAMIKAZE OVERDRIVE LOGO White