UFC on FOX 19: Teixeira vs Evans- ‘Let’s Dance’

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UFC on FOX 19 is in the record books. Multiple fighters staked their claim to big fights in the future, a former champion fell, and Glover Teixeira proved that he is one bad MOFO both during and after the fight. I went 8-3, but lost a crucial fight in comeback fashion and wasn’t happy with my prop bets. Let’s take a look at who I’ve got lined up for the winners from last night’s action.

 

Prelims Future Fights
  • Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos took the best his opponent could dish out and got the late stoppage. A bout with Nate Coy would be a solid scrap.
  • While it wasn’t a really impressive performance, Cezar Ferreira capitalize on his foe’s weakness and got the win. Ferreira against Chris Camozzi works for me.
  • Welcome back to the Bantamweight division John Dodson! That was an emphatic win and should vault him into a fight with a top ranked opponent. Takeya Mizugaki is #9 and would be a step up from Gamburyan, offering John a chance to build more momentum for a shot at the elite.
  • Now 2-0 in the UFC, Michael Graves is still pretty young in his MMA career. I would like to see him face a new fighter coming into the UFC.
  • Quickly becoming one of my favourite fighters to watch, Santiago Ponzinibbio hits like a truck and isn’t afraid to trade. Zak Cummings is streaking and a fight with Santiago would propel the winner to the next level of competition.
  • It was a close fight, much closer than many expected it to be with Bethe Correia hanging in there and not letting Raquel Pennington pull away. ‘Rocky’ is on the rise, but I would like to see her compile some wins before facing anyone in the top 5, #13 Lauren Murphy is coming of a hard fought win and would oblige Pennington in an entertaining scrap.
  • What a win for Michael Chiesa! It was a big-time comeback victory after getting outclassed in round one. Considering the quality of the opponent he subbed- that makes it even more significant. Chiesa just finished the #7 ranked fighter in the division, but a lot of the guys above him are tied up. A fight with Michael Johnson could work, but he recently lost to Dariush. If Tony Ferguson isn’t cleared right away to compete, Chiesa could serve as the next fight for Khabib Nurmagomedov- both men will be ready to go again right around the same time. Chiesa continues to defy the odds, why stop now?
Main Card Future Fights
  • After getting off to a slow start and giving away the opening round, Cub Swanson rallied and finished strong over rounds two and three. He nearly stopped Dias on two occasions and show that he is still dangerous on the feet. He will most likely never crack the top 5 of the division, but he will serve as a double-tough gatekeeper for those looking to reach the upper echelon at Featherweight. Dennis Bermudez should be up next, as he recently ended his own 2-fight losing streak and is ranked one spot below Cub (on Sunday).
  • This was a high risk/ low reward fight for the Russian ‘Eagle’. Khabib Nurmagomedov could have fallen way off the pace with a loss in this fight. Nurmagomedov used his strengths, dominated on the mat, and finished Horcher which was important. Considering he didn’t take a lot of damage, he should be jumping at the opportunity to return to action ASAP. The Tony Ferguson fight should be revisited when Ferg is healthy. If not, as mentioned already Michael Chiesa would be a sound next opponent for Khabib- where a win gets him a shot at the title.
  • This fight was close, I actually felt Tecia had done enough to steal a decision. She was landing the better shots in round three and wobbled Rose in the middle round. Despite her success, she appeared pretty accepting of the loss when she heard the scores announced. Rose fought a very gritty fight, scored key takedowns late in rounds, and landed some big punches at distance. This win could easily propel her into a title fight, but considering she is already 0-1 fighting for the gold she might want to continue to build herself up before she takes on the elite of the division. The three fighters ranked above her are tied up and she just beat #4. #5 Jessica Penne and #6 Valarie Letourneau are both coming off losses to the champion. Jo Jo Calderwood and Rose were previously paired together until ‘Thug’ was forced to withdraw- let’s make that fight next.
  • With a trio of victories, all by stoppage, Glover Teixeira is staking his claim to the first shot at Light Heavyweight gold once the dust settles. He has never faced DC and a he remained competitive with Jones. If those two were fighting next weekend, then Glover should be next. Unfortunately, we are looking at Jones/OSP with Cormier meeting the winner. That could shelve the Brazilian for a while, if he hadn’t been so awesome and called out one of the scariest fighters in the division. Anthony Johnson was in the building and Glover laid it out for him, he respects him, but he wants to dance. Who in their right mind asks to fight Rumble Johnson? Glover Teixeira, that’s who. Make it happen Joe Silva and soon.
  • A lot of people were counting on a return to form for Rashad Evans attributing the Bader loss to his time off. Unfortunately, the hesitancy that he showed last night and against Bader were already showing before the layoff. His chin has always been suspect despite just one knockout loss and Glover added to that total that quickly. Evans already works as an analyst for the UFC and it might be time to settle into that role full-time. If he wants to continue fighting, a fight with his original opponent for this card Shogun Rua would work.
Final Thoughts

Considering this card lost two fights, including Machida/ Henderson 2 and it also lost the participation of Tony Ferguson and Shogun Rua (sorry Caio Magalhaes)- it still delivered. There were a couple of decent fights and with Glover, John Dodson, and Michael Chiesa amongst others all elevating their positions in their respective divisions, there are enough storylines going forward to make this card significant.

I went 8-3, which was a nice way to follow UFN 86, but the Bet Pack didn’t produce as I was hoping. The loss of Dariush hurt and having to remove Makhachev from my card forced me to rely more on my prop bets which were not good tonight. All of the details are posted below.

The clock is already ticking for UFC 197, time to turn everything over and start again.

Parlay Header

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Glover Teixeira -195 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: Beneil Dariush -164 
Selection 3: Santiago Ponzinibbio -150 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: +306 Bet: 12 units
Payout: 36.71 units
 
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1:  Glover Teixeira/Rashad Evans Total Rounds Over 3.5 -135 
Selection 2: Oluwale Bamgbose -181 
Selection 3: Rose Namajunas -217 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 4: Beneil Dariush/Michael Chiesa Total Rounds Over 2.5 -180 
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Price: +514  x Bet: 9 untis 
Payout: 46.27 units
 
 
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Cezar Ferreira /Oluwale Bamgbose Total Rounds Under 1.5 -180 
Selection 2: Michael Graves -106 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 3: Elizeu Zaleski +135 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 4: Bethe Correia/Raquel Pennington Total Rounds Under 2.5 +185 
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Price: +1925 x Bet: 6 units
Payout: 115.48 units
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Hacran Dias +115  
Selection 2: Elizeu Zaleski/Omari Akhmedov Total Rounds Under 2.5 +110 
Selection 3: Michael Graves/Randy Brown Total Round Under 2.5 +140 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: +842 Bet: 6 units
Payout: 58.96 units
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Santiago Ponzinibbio -150 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: Elizeu Zaleski/Omari Akhmedov Total Rounds Under 2.5 +110 
Selection 3: Beneil Dariush -164 
Selection 4: Rose Namajunas/Tecia Torres Total Rounds Under 2.5 +190 
===================================================
Price: +1534  x Bet: 8 units 
Payout: 122.71 units

 

Draftkings Line up

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Team Kamikaze
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Fighter 1: Glover Teixeira $10300 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Beneil Dariush $10000 
Fighter 3: Santiago Ponzinibbio $10100 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: Michael Graves $9000 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 5: Oluwale Bamgbose $10500 
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Team Overdrive
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Fighter 1: Rose Namajunas $10200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Hacran Dias $9600 
Fighter 3: Raquel Pennington $9900 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: Glover Teixeira $10300 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 5: Elizeu Zaleski $9700 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Salary Remaining: 
 

*Instead of having Team #1 and Team #2, which suggest that one team is better/ more importan than the other I am renaming them Team Kamikaze and Team Overdrive. I fully endorse either team as a legit group of fighters to back as your fantasy selection.

 

Glover Teixeira -195 vs Rashad Evans +191 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Outside of a few moments, Evans did not look good against Bader. Not at all. I think Glover presents a far more dangerous front than what Bader has to offer. Evans was coming off a layoff, but I just don’t see a likely scenario where he wins this fight. Glover throws more strikes and has more power. Evans would have to knock him out to beat him on the feet. Can Rashad consistently take him down? I don’t think so. Davis had to work extremely hard to get Glover on the mat and I see him as a far better pure wrestler than Evans. Moreover, the threat of Glover’s power will back Evans up and keep him from committing fully on a takedown. Whether he knocks him out or just does more and take a decision, Glover has the key advantages in this fight. Gold Parlay

Draft-Kings-Logo

Based on Teixeira’s volume and potential for the odd takedown, he could put up some decent points over 5 rounds without a stoppage. If he knocks Evans out it only further adds to his value. He averages 85.5 points which is a nice number, especially considering he is an affordable $10300. I’ve got him on Team Kamikaze.

 

Rose Namajunas -217 vs Tecia Torres +206 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Torres won their first fight, but both girls were only 3 fights into their pro careers. They have come a long way since, but who has come further? I think the biggest difference is that Rose, while still aggressive, has become more effective with her aggression. She doesn’t take the low-percentage risks that she did in the first fight that helped Torres to score points in a very close fight. I think Rose’s offensive wrestling have improved and will help her to be more effective on the mat this time around. But, I am also quite disheartened about where these odds currently sit. I didn’t expect that Tecia would be the fav, but I expected it to be closer. For that reason, this bout falls to a fringe Silver bet. It will be the odd fight out if elect to go with a 3-leg parlay instead of 4. I am also considering a counter bet of Tecia based on value.

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If you are a regular follower you are probably aware of my scenarios bets when dealing with rematches. I think Rose has the ability to score so decent points with or without a finish. If Rose gets the early finish, most likely by submission (all 4 of her wins) that will points. She also is very active on the mat and puts up some decent striking numbers, those will score. I think she hits between 75-100 points and her price is manageable at $10200, she is the first member of Team Overdrive.

Darrell Horcher +760 vs Khabib Nurmagomedov -800 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Clearly we can’t touch Nurmagomedov here, but it isn’t just because of the line. For a long time, I have not been a fan of Nurmy’s striking style. He holds his hands low, strikes from odd angles that leave him open, and backs up with his chin in the air. No one has capitalized yet, but I think Horcher could if he can land something big. He has real power. Plus, when you figure in the layoff,  injuries, and opponent change- Khabib isn’t in the best place possible. I consider picking the upset outright, but even if I am right about it- most will see the pick as a BS lucky guess. But don’t touch Nurmy and consider a small play on Horcher.

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No play here.

Cub Swanson -117 vs Hacran Dias +115 

Cub Swanson wins this fight by being the more active striker and landing the better quality strikes. That is a scenario that is entirely possible. Dias wins by grinding Swanson into the cage and dragging the fight to the floor where he should be able to control and threatened Swanson. I don’t like how Swanson has dealt with ground-oriented fighters and I don’t like how he will risk position by attempting a high-risk kick and wind up on his back. Dias is pretty good at getting the fight to the mat on his own without help. The two fighters that beat Dias were two defensively stout wrestlers that Hacran couldn’t out-wrestle. That won’t be the case here. I see him grinding out a close fight with top position time against a mistake-prone Swanson. The striking advantage that Swanson should have gives me enough pause to drop the dog to a Silver play.

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Swanson has some submission defense issues which could open the door for Dias to pick up a finish. If not, look for Dias to collect point with takedowns and guard passes. At $9600, he is cheap and with his average points per fight sitting so low he will be pretty unappealing to the general masses. That makes him much more value to us. He joins Rose on Team Overdrive.

Beneil Dariush -164 vs Michael Chiesa +158 

I like these odds, I think this fight will be competitive, but Dariush will still be the consistent frontrunner. Dariush is better in the areas where Chiesa does his best work. Chiesa will struggle to find success outside a few pockets here or there. If he attempts to pull something off on the mat, look for Dariush to turn the position in his favour. On the feet, the more I look at BD’s fights, he should have a nice advantage and he should be better version of what we saw last time. Dariush makes the cut in my top play.

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I also feel like we are getting  a deal on the fantasy front. Dariush is an even $10000, and will be able to score with both his ground game and his striking. A finish isn’t out of the realm of possibility, but Dariush put up some pretty decent striking numbers in his last fight against a much better striker than Chiesa so that will score over 3 rounds. Add in a few takedowns and some positional advances and we are looking at 80 to 90 points. That is a very workable total at this price. Team Kamikaze member #2.

Bethe Correia +216 vs Raquel Pennington -223 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

The line is moving in the wrong direction for us. Correia really made a lot out of not much, with the 3 opponents she beat to get a shot at the title. No offense to Julie Kedzie intended. I have been impressed with what I have seen out of Pennington, even in defeat. Her reach will hold up well against Correia who punches even shorter than she should. I also expect that Pennington will find success on the ground. The unfortunate thing is the lack of value on Raquel. I am still holding out hope that the general public will see their records and overvalue Correia and push the line accordingly. I am tempted to pass on this fight, because I just don’t feel like I need the added risk/minimal reward of another leg like this one. A Live Bet on Pennington if she loses the opening round might be worth it, she tends to rally well.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Pennington is pretty scrappy and Correia should be there to hit. She has also submitted her last 2 opponents. At $9900, the price doesn’t represent that she is the favourite that the betting line makes her out to be. This line is set closer to where I wanted the betting line to be. Dariush is sitting at -164, but costs $100 more than Pennington. She saves us some cash to spend elsewhere. Team Overdrive.

Court McGee +148 vs Santiago Ponzinibbio -150 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I’ve always felt McGee was very linear at times and stiff in his striking, devoid of a lot of head movement. That won’t be a good thing against a hard throwing opponent who is going to stand and trade. McGee’s biggest asset is his work rate, but because of his lack of major finishing power/ impact strikes he has to outland his opponent by 20+ and mix in some takedowns to get the judges’ nod. I see Santiago keeping it close it the totals, but hitting him harder. I also see the Argentine fighter staying vertical or getting up quickly. That is not a positive for McGee. Look for Ponzy to use his power to get the better of the exchanges and be the fighter more frequently moving forward. I have Ponzinibbio in my #1 parlay.

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Santiago will also be joining Team Kamikaze. He was a part of one of my biggest paying DK lineups and I feel he is a must-have at an affordable $10100. He averages 63.8 ppf, but I anticipate something bigger here. McGee fights an in your face style. He likes to break opponents with his constant pressure, but that means he will be there to be hit as well. At just shy of 4 SLpM and 18 of 21 wins coming inside the distance, Ponzinibbio should score in the range of 75 to 100+.

John Dodson -485 vs Manny Gamburyan +472 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

No Play here on Dodson and Gamburyan isn’t worth a look either. Dodson looked like he regressed a little against Makovsky and then DJ, but the move to 135 should bring his speed back to the forefront. Either way, I see him winning this fight but I’ll leave it be. The total will get a quick look.

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Dodson costs a lot and if he gets the stoppage that is great, but if he doesn’t I could see him coast through more on his inability to be hit than his volume. Pass.

Michael Graves -106 vs Randy Brown -102  12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

These guys are both pretty darn raw, with limited pro experience and only 1 fight each in the UFC. Randy is the bigger fight by far and that can help to overcome some technical deficiencies. I felt his last opponent was tailor made for him. A hittable opponent with limited to no ground game. Graves is a bit different. I was impressed with his takedowns and how many different ways she can hit them. Against Brown, I see him find success using his lower stature to get in on his legs and dragging him to the mat. That being said, with young fighters- you never know what you are going to get one fight to the next. Graves either submits him or grinds his way to a victory, but I have him in my Bronze parlay. Potential, but unknown.

Draft-Kings-Logo

While the betting line is close, the Fantasy line is not. At an even $9000, Graves is incredibly inexpensive. He isn’t well known so fans won’t be lining up to add him to their team, but he has the potential to finish and/or score points with his grappling. His price also makes it possible to build a team that consists of 4 favourites. Add him to Team Kamikaze.

Drew Dober +174 vs Islam Makhachev -190- Cancelled

Dober is a tough dude, but until his last fight he had yet to really put together a complete effort. Still, his success was probably due to his opponent as much as it was to him. Makhachev is coming off of his first defeat so I expect that to help rally him here. I see him as the better grappler and more capable striker. I just don’t see Dober putting up enough volume/takedowns to earn a decision, he doesn’t have the power to stop him, and he won’t get the better of the grappling. Makhachew outclasses him start to finish. He is in my #2 play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Mak will also be on my Team Overdrive. At $10600, he is a pretty moderate investment despite commanding the highest wage on the team. Most people won’t recognize the name or jump at the below average 48.5 ppf. Volume and takedowns score and submission win is certainly a possibility.

Cezar Ferreira +169 vs Oluwale Bamgbose -181  

This fight will feature one of two things; either Ferreira grappling his way to victory or Bamgbose knocking him out. Pretty simple. I’m not a fan of the short notice for Oluwale, but considering his fights are over before the 5-minute mark he doesn’t normally rely on his conditioning to do what he does. Ferreira is reckless and I struggle to see him avoid getting hit by Oluwale, unless he takes him down right away. Bamgbose has so much power he can hurt his opponent right through their guard. Look for him to do so. I have him in my Silver parlay, but I might consider swapping out the side bet for a bet on the total. Check the Parlay section for more details.

Draft-Kings-Logo

With all 6 of his wins coming inside the first round and Ferreira’s mounting knockout numbers, it is hard not to see the value in Bamgbose. At $10500, if he wins, he scores you 100 points or more. There are a couple of fighters near or above the $11000 mark who don’t feel can score like Oluwale. Take the leftover money and run!  He is the final member of Team Kamikaze

Elizeu Zaleski +135 vs Omari Akhmedov -142 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I’m still a little bitter over Akhmedov blowing the last fight, it was quite a costly loss. Akhmedov is  a hammer. He hits hard with everything he throws, but that makes it difficult to for him to sustain that style over a prolonged period of time. Zaleski won’t shy away from a scrap either and hits extremely hard. The difference is he’s a bit quicker and can sustain that attack over a full 3-rounds. Additionally, the chin of the Russian is major question mark that I think Elizeu can expose.

Draft-Kings-Logo

We know the history of the opening round fights and the unders. I could easily see both opening fights hit the under and if that is the case there are some sizeable Fantasy points to be had. Zaleski is a name that won’t attract much notice. He scored just 30.5 points in his debut, which isn’t going to grab him a lot of attention. That means there is potential for some early unqiue points. The Brazilian has 11-knockouts and has only gone the distance in victory one time. At $9700, he fits perfectly into the final spot on Team Overdrive with every single dollar accounted for.

1. John Dodson -485 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Glover Teixeira -195 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Beneil Dariush -164 

4. Khabib Nurmagomedov -800 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Santiago Ponzinibbio -150 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

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6. Rose Namajunas -217 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

7. Raquel Pennington -223 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

8. Oluwale Bamgbose -181 

9. Elizeu Zaleski +135 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

10. Hacran Dias +115 

11. Michael Graves -106 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

1. Hacran Dias +115 

2. Elizeu Zaleski +135 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Michael Graves -106 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Beneil Dariush -164 

5. Rose Namajunas/Tecia Torres Total Rounds Under 2.5 +190 

1. Darrell Horcher +760-  There are so many outside factors here that Horcher pulling off the upset wouldn’t shock me one bit. He has some serious power and if he touches Nurmagomedov it could be over quickly. Make a small play here.

2. Tecia Torres +206-  I had this fight lined closer and while I expect Rose to win, there is some value on Tecia. If you have the extra cash consider a single bet. Either play Namajunas  and/or the Under or play Namajunas in a parlay and hedge with a single bet on Torres. Stay away from the Under and Torres, you are almost guaranteed to lose one of those bets as Tecia will not finish her.

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bETTING SCENARIOS

 

Exclusive Bet Pak Info.

 

Prop Bets

 

Glover Teixeira/Rashad Evans Total Rounds Over 3.5 -135 

If the finish is going to materialize it will be on the part of Teixeira, but Rashad is pretty defensively sound. My problem with him in this fight is his lack of offense and willingness to just stand at distance without engaging. Glover’s last finish came against Bader and he has fought in 13 of a possible 14 rounds over the last 4 fights. Evans has had an even longer run, hitting the 3rd round or beyond in 8 of his last 11 fights. Take the Over.

Rose Namajunas/Tecia Torres  

See Betting Scenario Section.

Beneil Dariush/Michael Chiesa  

See Betting Scenario Section.

Bethe Correia/Raquel Pennington Total Rounds Under 2.5 +185 

Pennington has submitted back to back opponents and won’t shy away from a good scrap. Correia got absolutely starched when she took her first step up in competition after a pretty low-level start to her UFC run. Pennington hits hard and while she isn’t Ronda, I see her giving Correia a tough fight from start to finish. The knockout that Bethe suffered was brutal and if Raquel mounts enough damage, she could put her down. It is a bit of risk, but I am willing to take shot primarily based on the improved grappling offense and physical style of ‘Rocky’.

John Dodson/Manny Gamburyan Total Rounds Under 2.5 +110 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

If I am going to play this fight it will be a bet on the Under. Dodson has stopping power and is very capable of putting it on Manny’s chin. Dodson has 8 wins by knockout, including 4 in the UFC. The last time we saw him at 135 pounds he took out the man who would later capture the Bantamweight title. Different place, different time- but Dodson is dangerous. He was able to drop DJ a couple of times. Gamburyan is hittable and Dodson’s speed will put him in a position to crack him. Manny has been knocked out twice in his career and I’ll give Dodson 2+ rounds to take his best shot at making it 3.

Michael Graves/Randy Brown Total Round Under 2.5 +140 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Both men are coming off their first career fight to go the distance. There is a real chance that this bout could do the same considering many young fighters move from the regional scene to the UFC and it takes them a while to find their stride and return to their finishing ways. I will play the odds here and look for the finish, either Brown gets the knockout or Graves earns the sub- hopefully the latter. Play the Under.

Cezar Ferreira /Oluwale Bamgbose 

See Betting Scenario Section.

Elizeu Zaleski/Omari Akhmedov 

See Betting Scenario Section.

 

KAMIKAZE OVERDRIVE LOGO White