UFC on FOX 17: Dos Anjos vs Cerrone 2- ‘Cowboy Down’
The 2015 UFC calendar is complete. With its end, we have champion that avoid joining the long listed of fallen UFC title holders, a new/old contender in the Heavyweight division, another fun Nate Diaz on the mic experience, and a few more interesting points of interest coming out of UFC on FOX 17. Let’s take a look at by Winners and Losers from Saturday Night.Winners Rafael Dos Anjos
- Despite knocking out Benson Henderson and thrashing Anthony Pettis to win the title, RDA wasn’t getting the respect that he deserves. The manner in which he dismantled a dangerous opponent like Cerrone in a big spotlight should legitimize his position at the top of the division for all of the doubters. The Brazilian also has the good fortune of a massive pay cheque headed his way if a certain Featherweight champion elects to take a run a second UFC title.
- This fight was a long time in the making and ‘the Reem’ was long considered second best when matched up with the former Champion. While he isn’t bulldozing through opponents like he use to, his calculated attack proved more than enough to keep JDS out of his rhythm until Overeem could land something significant. By destroying a former champion like JDS and having a win over the current champion in Werdum, Overeem could be fighting for the title next time out.
- Easily the best performance we have seen from Diaz in a long time. His physique looked better and after he found his stride, his boxing was sharp and accurate. Nate looked like a punching bag for the RDA on route to his title win. He might not be fighting for the title anytime soon, but he proved he is still very relevant in the division going into 2016.
- Dollaway appeared to win the opening round, but a nice adjustment by Marquardt between rounds lead to a clean right hand counter that stopped CB in his tracks. This was an absolute must-win for Nate and he got the job done.
- McCrory and Samman engaged in a grueling and enjoyable back and forth battle on the mat with the ‘Barn Cat’ earning the 3rd round submission. He took a chance walking away from Bellator where he was close to fighting for the title and his first step back on the big stage was a big one.
- Despite gaining an early reputation for being just a wrestler, Lentz has evolved into quite the action fighter and wore out Castillo with his pace and aggression on route to a split decision win. How one judge gave the fight to Castillo is beyond me.
- Looking to hit the showers early, Luque made quick work of Hassan and got some revenge after a razor thin loss on the Ultimate Fighter.
- After a bit of a slow start, NGannou found his stride and landed a ferocious uppercut to score the knockout. NGannou is still early in his career, but he clearly has potential and the Heavyweight division is badly in need of so new blood.
- Both Valentina Shevchenko and Karolina Kowalkiewicz picked up wins over significant opposition in their debuts. Shevchenko did it on just on just over 1 week’s notice. This was a great start for both ladies.
- It is hard putting ‘Cowboy’ in this column, but this was a difficult loss. He is a notorious slow starter and it cost him this fight. He has now lost multiple big fights to Nate Diaz, Anthony Pettis, and RDA twice. All 4 loses were relative one-sided and bring into question his ability to get the job done on the big stage. Donald will remain a part of the division’s top 10 for the foreseeable future, but it is hard to see him getting another shot at the title any time soon.
- JDS appears to be broken. Even with the camp change, he looked hesitant and unwilling to engage. He opened up with one significant combination when he had Overeem backed up along the cage, but that was it. It is clear that the damage done in his two encounters with Velasquez and his win over Miocic have stripped the Brazilian of what made him an elite heavyweight.
- There is a pretty straight forward game plan to defeating Nate Diaz. Leg kicks and wrestling. Johnson battered Diaz early with his low kicks, but as the fight progressed he threw less and less. He tried to outbox Nate and for a fighter known for having cardio issues against a fighter known for the opposite- that was a mistake. Johnson has now lost back to back fights, both that he should/could have won. He is still a relevant fighter in the division and can rebound, but this was a step back that he didn’t need to take.
- He won, so why is he a loser? He is a loser because he missed weight for the third time in his UFC career. Submitting Myles Jury so quickly an in such impressive fashion should have launched him back into the title conversation where another win or two in 2016 has him on the cusp of a title fight. Now we have no idea what weight he will be fighting at in his next performance and if he will even make it.
- This fight was a perfect opportunity for Dollaway to get back on track and add a big name to his resume. He fought a solid opening round an then ran face first into a big right hand from Nate. I am not sure what he was thinking. He has now lost three in a row, prior to this fight his defeats were excusable against two top ranked members of the division. This loss looks ugly on his record and turns an understandable 2-fight losing skid into a dreadful slump that could cost him his job with another setback.
- I don’t like putting Kaufman in this category, but it has to be done. She was unable to get her high-volume striking assault unleashed against Shevchenko and was soundly out-grappled for the first two rounds of the fight. She mounted a furious comeback in the final round and almost squeaked out a decision. She has just a single UFC win, should be two, and is coming off a loss to a fighter that debut with just over a week to prepare. This lose will cost her a couple of spots in the rankings. In most divisions, this setback might be too much to overcome in pursuit of a title shot, but a couple of wins will do wonders for the Canadian.
Overall, it was a pretty fun card to finish out 2015. The Lightweight champ picks up a massive and really cements himself at the top of his division heading into 2016. We appeared to have been saved from another possible Velasquez/JDS drubbing, but the last time Werdum and Overeem fought it was a pretty horrid fight. Nate Diaz gave us another epic non-sound bite at the end of the fight. Thanks a lot FOX. It isn’t hard to find the uncut version.
Finally, after a strong 4-0 start to the card my predictions took a significant nose dive as I correctly predicted just 1 of the remaining 8 fights correct. Keep in mind, in the final 8 matchups- the underdogs were a near perfect 7-1. On the bright side, it was a nice upset call and lead to a sizeable 4-leg parlay to cash out at 117 units. A couple of other highlights from the bet pack includes Kowalkiewicz and Lentz scoring as value bets, Nate Diaz coming through as a profitable counter bet, correctly fading my FPO trend, going 2-0 in rematch prop bets, and finishing with 5 correct prop bets out of 8. See more in the bet pack below. That is all for me as far as fight predictions are concerned in 2015. I will try to put together my end of the year awards and prognostication show. So keep your eyes open for that. All the best to you and yours in the year to come. Take care!
Selection 1: DONALD CERRONE $2.76
Price: $2.76 x Bet: 6 units
Payout: 16.56 units
Selection 1: COLE MILLER $2.09- VOID
Selection 2: NIK LENTZ $2.05
Selection 3: JOSH SAMMAN $1.58
Price: $6.77 x Bet: 8 units
Payout: 54.16 units
Selection 1: KAROLINA KOWALKIEWICZ $2.79
Selection 2: FRANCIS NGANNOU $2.05
Selection 3: VICENTE LUQUE $1.95
Selection 4: NIK LENTZ/DANNY CASTILLO Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.50
Price: $16.73 x Bet: 7 units
Payout: 117.11 units
Selection 1: DONALD CERRONE $2.76
Selection 2: COLE MILLER $2.09- VOID
Selection 3: SARAH KAUFMAN $1.69
Selection 4: FRANCIS NGANNOU $2.05
Price: $19.99 x Bet: 6 units
Payout: 119.94 units
When its broke, or at least not paying out like it should be, its time to fix it. Instead of putting together Parlays based on what type of bettor you might be, we are going to rank each parlay/ single bet based on 3 things- Value, Risk, and Confidence. It will be up to you to decide which plays you feel like making and which ones you are going to pass on. Keep in mind this is gambling- there is massive risk involved any time you lay money on the line and with the unpredictability of a sport like MMA it only makes it tougher. All we can do is prepare ourselves to the fullest extend and make bets that we feel good about. Let’s make some money! GOLD- Bets posted in this section will have a solid payout, involve moderate risk, but my confidence level will be high. Single bets and 2-3 fight parlays, potentially the odd prop bet. SILVER- Bets posted in this section will have a solid to slightly higher payout, but will involved a little more risk and while I am confident enough to post these bets, I do see where we could go wrong. Single bets, 3-4 fight parlays and prop bets. More Underdogs involved. BRONZE- Bets posted in this section will normally have the highest payouts, but also involve the most risk. Major Underdogs, larger parlays, and higher risk prop bets. WILDCARD- This section will include bets only to be made if you have some extra cash. Most posts in this section will be long shots to hit or at least have a lot of working parts involved, but if they do the win the payout will be significant. Betting Units “What is a unit?”A popular term in sports betting is “unit” and below I will explain what bettors mean they refer to a unit, and examples of it being used. A “unit” in sports betting is a measurement of the size of someone’s bet. Because everyone has different sized bankrolls for sports betting, using the term unit is a way for us to show your profit or loss in universal terms. Someone who is betting $10,000 per bet and is up $18,000 on the season isn’t nearly as impressive as someone who bets $10 per bet and is up $180 on the season. Using units gives us a tool to keep track of profits and losses without the dollar value. Because basic sports betting strategy tells us that you should be betting somewhere between 1-5% of your bankroll on each wager, it is generally accepted that a unit is equal to approximately 1% of your bankroll. Nothing is set on stone with this, but that is an easy way to calculate a single unit. Using the above formula, someone who has a $1,000 bankroll would be betting $10 per unit, while someone with a $50,000 bankroll would be betting $500 per unit. Using the bankroll management strategy that recommends 1-5% of your bankroll on each bet you would essentially want to bet between 1-5 “units”. Many sports handicappers will release their plays with units, with the most common being 1-5 units or sometimes 1-7 units. The 1,2, and 3 unit plays are more of the average plays, while the 4, 5 and sometimes 6 and 7 unit plays are the big plays where the handicapper feels they have found a lot of value on a play. If a handicapper released a 5 unit play and you had a $1,000 sports betting bankroll you would be risking 5% (5 units) or $50 on the play.
When its broke, or at least not paying out like it should be, its time to fix it. Instead of putting together Parlays based on what type of bettor you might be, we are going to rank each parlay/ single bet based on 3 things- Value, Risk, and Confidence. It will be up to you to decide which plays you feel like making and which ones you are going to pass on.
Keep in mind this is gambling- there is massive risk involved any time you lay money on the line and with the unpredictability of a sport like MMA it only makes it tougher. All we can do is prepare ourselves to the fullest extend and make bets that we feel good about. Let’s make some money!
GOLD- Bets posted in this section will have a solid payout, involve moderate risk, but my confidence level will be high. Single bets and 2-3 fight parlays, potentially the odd prop bet.
SILVER- Bets posted in this section will have a solid to slightly higher payout, but will involved a little more risk and while I am confident enough to post these bets, I do see where we could go wrong. Single bets, 3-4 fight parlays and prop bets. More Underdogs involved.
BRONZE- Bets posted in this section will normally have the highest payouts, but also involve the most risk. Major Underdogs, larger parlays, and higher risk prop bets.
WILDCARD- This section will include bets only to be made if you have some extra cash. Most posts in this section will be long shots to hit or at least have a lot of working parts involved, but if they do the win the payout will be significant.
“What is a unit?”A popular term in sports betting is “unit” and below I will explain what bettors mean they refer to a unit, and examples of it being used.
A “unit” in sports betting is a measurement of the size of someone’s bet. Because everyone has different sized bankrolls for sports betting, using the term unit is a way for us to show your profit or loss in universal terms.
Someone who is betting $10,000 per bet and is up $18,000 on the season isn’t nearly as impressive as someone who bets $10 per bet and is up $180 on the season. Using units gives us a tool to keep track of profits and losses without the dollar value.
Because basic sports betting strategy tells us that you should be betting somewhere between 1-5% of your bankroll on each wager, it is generally accepted that a unit is equal to approximately 1% of your bankroll. Nothing is set on stone with this, but that is an easy way to calculate a single unit.
Using the above formula, someone who has a $1,000 bankroll would be betting $10 per unit, while someone with a $50,000 bankroll would be betting $500 per unit.
Using the bankroll management strategy that recommends 1-5% of your bankroll on each bet you would essentially want to bet between 1-5 “units”.
Many sports handicappers will release their plays with units, with the most common being 1-5 units or sometimes 1-7 units. The 1,2, and 3 unit plays are more of the average plays, while the 4, 5 and sometimes 6 and 7 unit plays are the big plays where the handicapper feels they have found a lot of value on a play.
If a handicapper released a 5 unit play and you had a $1,000 sports betting bankroll you would be risking 5% (5 units) or $50 on the play.
=================================================== Lineup #1 =================================================== Fighter 1: COLE MILLER $9600 Fighter 2: SARAH KAUFMAN $10600 Fighter 3: MYLES JURY $10000 Fighter 4: JUNIOR DOS SANTOS $10900 Fighter 5: Donald Cerrone $8900 =================================================== Salary Remaining: $0 =================================================== Lineup #2 =================================================== Fighter 1: FRANCIS NGANNOU $9300 Fighter 2: JOSH SAMMAN $10300 Fighter 3: KAMARU USMAN $10200 Fighter 4: KAROLINA KOWALKIEWICZ $9000 Fighter 5: SARAH KAUFMAN $10600 =================================================== Salary Remaining: $600
LUIS HENRIQUE $1.82 vs FRANCIS NGANNOU $2.05
Of all the divisions, getting a clean read on new Heavyweights is tough. Not always, but a lot of time they are fighting blown up Light Heavyweights or worse when competing outside of the UFC. For Henrique, he was fighting at Light Heavyweight in most of his fights. Ngannou is bigger and stronger and looks like the better athlete. Both men have deficiencies, but Ngannou fights in a manner that limits his. Henrique likes to strike, but defensively he leaves a lot of openings. Combine that with Ngannou’s physical advantages and I will take the dog here to pull off the upset. Too much unknown for this fight to make the cut in the Gold package. I am tempted to use him in the Silver section, but he will most likely fall to the Bronze level. He is also an option to add to your fantasy lineup. At just $9300 he is a bargain considering he has finished all of his fights inside the first 10 minutes- but the uncertainty looms nonetheless. Keep an eye on the DK section for a final verdict.
HAYDER HASSAN $1.95 vs VICENTE LUQUE $1.95
This fight is almost set at even and their first fight, exhibition or not, was close. When I went back and rewatched the fight I had Luque winning the 1st 2 rounds. He was landing more and holding Octagon control with a more consistent forward pressure. Hassan has massive power and has shown both on the show and in his pro career that he can deliver it. Even with their debuts already in the books, there is the potential for growth coming off the show. It has been 5-months since we last saw them. Luque is almost 10 years younger, despite having 5 more pro fights. I see him coming into this bout as a different fighter from their first meeting. While Hassan will most likely use relatively the same style. I know these are just assumptions, but they are based having seen this scenario so frequently coming out of TUF. Look for Luque to incorporate more grappling in this fight. He tried a couple of times on the show, but with limited success. Based on what we saw with Hassan/Usman- Luque will try to capitalize. Still it could be a close fight. I am leaning towards a Bronze level parlay inclusion, but Luque doesn’t make the cut on my DK sqaud.
LEON EDWARDS $3.16 vs KAMARU USMAN $1.42
A nice stylistic clash here. Usman on the mat and Edwards on the feet. Edwards has power, but his lack of activity is concerning. Even if they split their time 50/50 or 60/40 striking/ground I don’t think he does enough with his volume to get back what he lost when put on his back. He needs the knockout or to really limit how much time he is on the ground. Usman is a smothering ground-fighter and will be physically able to deal with the speed of Edwards. I wasn’t impressed with the Brit when he was put on his back in his debut and while that was a little while ago, he hasn’t been forced to deal with that in the UFC since. He also hasn’t had to deal with a big guy like Kamaru on top of him. I am leaning towards Usman in my top play, but he might lose out to a more known commodity. There is potential for a finish here or prolong positional control- both score points. He will most likely make my second DK team.
COLE MILLER $2.09 vs JIM ALERS $1.87
Miller will most likely never fight for the title and will struggle to crack the top 15 of the division, but he always comes to fight. He is a tough vet with finishing capabilities. Alers is a good fighter, but I haven’t seen the reason for all the hype surrounding him when he came to the UFC. Even in his win. What I have seen is a fighter that is flawed on the feet in a specific way that plays into Miller’s best striking asset. Miller throws a long, stinging right hand and Alers has been tagged repeatedly in both of his fights from the right side. He was finished by Skelly as a result and hurt by Omer. Miller should be able to find similar success because he deploys it better then both Omer and Skelly. Miller could knock him out, but more likely he stuns him and jumps for a submission. At this price Miller is arguably one of the better deals on the card and I think he will work his way into my top play. If not, he fits the Silver section nicely. Miller is also the 1st member of my DraftKings’ ‘A’ squad. At just $9600 he creates space for bigger investments later on and he has finished 7 of his last 8 wins and 18 of his 21 career victories.
NIK LENTZ $2.05 vs DANNY CASTILLO $1.83
I have seen this line in a number of different scenarios, but Lentz tends to be the dog in most. That might change before we actually get to the fight, but it will be close to this number. This fight is probably going to be close, as the line indicates. In fact, hearing a split decision is almost expected. I feel that Lentz just does more. He pushes the pace on the feet and throws more often. Castillo tends to hold back and throw a lot of singles. If the wrestling is a stalemate, the volume and aggression of ‘the Carny’ will carry the day. I also expect to Lentz carrying his pace better with the return to LW and not having to cut to 145. Even though I feel Lentz wins, because I have it pegged so close I can’t use Lentz in my top play. I feel confident enough to slide him into the Silver section though. No DK as the chance of a finish, prolonged top control, and or a high volume output seem low.
JOSH SAMMAN $1.58 vs TAMDAN MCCRORY$2.59
Give me 20, heck 50 guesses and I don’t name McCrory as a fighter I would expected to see back in the UFC after getting released/retiring. He looked good in Bellator, but opted to jump ship to the big show. I don’t know if he would have won the Bellator title, but had he pulled it off and then opted to make the move he would have had a little more pull/ significance. My biggest concerns here are that Samman has had issues a) getting off to a strong start and b) with his defensive grappling. They have went hand in hand, with Casey catching him in a tight choke and Eddie Gordon putting up some big takedown numbers. McCrory is aggressive and I expect him to come out guns a blazing. So far it has worked in his return to action, but as was the case in his previous WW run- he will fade without a finish. At least, that is what I am anticipating. With a lot of questions surround McCrory, I can’t make this a top investment and Samman will slip to Silver, possibly Bronze. Josh has been a finisher in the UFC, putting away all 3 opponents and has gone the distance just once in 12 wins. He is an intriguing option to add to my DK lineup at $10300 and averaging 90+ points per fight, I am tempted to pull the trigger. But I have a plan and he doesn’t fit my budget. He will be a part of my second unit though.
SARAH KAUFMAN $1.69 vs VALENTINA SHEVCHENKO $2.91
Kaufman doesn’t get the respect she deserves. She has lost 3 times in her career to Rousey, Davis, and Coenen- all by sub. She has 2 wins over Davis and beat Tate and Carmouche, along with some other solid WMMA veterans who’s names were more significant when they fought Sarah. Kaufman should come out reinvigorated with the new champion in the division. Holm had been angling for a fight with Kaufman’s and Sarah’s high volume striking attack could be a nice pairing with Holm in the not too distance future. Canadian city PPV would be ideal. For that to happen, Sarah needs to string a couple of wins together. She was robbed against Eye and thrashed Davis soundly in the opening round before making a mistake. If she can get this win here, a bout with another big name like Tate, Nunes, or Pena could put her on the cusp. She is fighting a late replacement due to injury and Shevchenko is no slouch. In fact, she might serve as a good measuring stick for how Kaufman fairs against a capable kickboxer. I don’t see Valentina fairing well against the aggressing boxing of Kaufman. Valentina likes to fight at a measured pace and Kaufman’s aggressive boxing ranged attack will negate that style nicely. Even Shevchenko she keeps it close in the opening round, look for the Canadian to really push the pace in round 2 and 3- wearing her out. I have Kaufman at this price as a prime part of my top Gold Play. I also have her on my #1 DK team. We are getting a bit of a discount a $10600, I had her closer to $10800 or $10900. A knockout is a possibly, most likely via death by accumulation. More importantly, it is the volume of Kaufman that will add up. She averages over 7 SLpM and landed 202 significant strikes in her last win, 65 in just over a round against Davis. She needs to be on your top DK club.
CB DOLLAWAY $1.27 vs NATE MARQUARDT $4.63
I will keep this short. CB should take it as Nate is just about done fighting at this level. That being said, the price isn’t worth it and Marquardt might have just enough in the tank to pull it off. ‘No Play’ on the side bet. I could see a little value in the total. I had intentions of using Nate on my secondary DK team, but he costs way too much. This fight could be over quick or it could be a long drawn out staring contest. I’ll watch with nothing invested.
CHARLES OLIVEIRA $2.35 vs MYLES JURY $1.69
This should be an interesting fight. Oliveira’s aggressive, forward first finishing capabilities against the conservative and measured style of Jury. Myles is cutting to 145 for the first time, but with a year to prep I don’t see it as that big of a deal. Normally, fighters that are cutting down are older fighters looking to remain relevant at the end of their career- not Jury. I do like that he is coming off a loss and I expect him to be an improved version of himself. I will tell you straight up, I had Oliveira in my first breakdown- but I made the change before I posted it. The reason for the change was pretty simple. Oliveira thrives when he can create chaos and fluster his opponent with his constant attack. Jury is the type of fighter that does a nice job of fighting his game plan and keep things calmed and under control. It might not be exciting, but it is effective. Oliveira will go for subs and he is lethal and creative, but he is also a risk taker. If he doesn’t hit, he will spend a lot of time on his back and that is not a good thing. Jury is a capable top position player and I expect to see him smothering Oliveira on the floor after fail sub attempts. I also question the durability of ‘do Bronx’. The injury against Max was odd, the body shot finish against Cerrone looked strange, and so did the knockout against Cub. Even against Lentz, he got hit in the face and started covering up in a really weird fashion. I just don’t like how he deals with damage/ adversity. He is also returning quickly after a really weird injury, we will have to see how that plays out. Jury grinds him out and will make the cut on my top play as a result. I also have him on my #1 DK team. He has finished opponents in the past and I could see a knockout showing up here. If not, top control will be the key to his point scoring ability. At $10000 even he isn’t too expensive and the line is moving to make him a bigger favourite, which in turn makes this price much easier to accept.
RANDA MARKOS $1.53 vs KAROLINA KOWALKIEWICZ $2.79
I like Randa. If she wins this fight, I will be happy. But I picked this fight with my head and not my heart. KK is a very good striker, very good. Big combos, slick technique, and great hand speed. She was darn impressive in her recent footage. Markos is tough, but her striking is a little simplistic and predictable at times. She has also slowed down in both of her fights. Many are predicting her ground game playing a big role and moving to Tri-Star we could see a marked improvement in that facet of her attack. From what we have seen, she has landed 3 takedowns compared to 6 given up. I felt she faded tremendously against Daly and Daly doesn’t carry the pace that KK will bring. Octagon jitters could play a role, but I will take the skilled striker here. Still lots of unknown here, I think KK fits into my Bronze parlay or a Silver level single bet. If you want to bet on Randa, keep an eye on the Live Bet option after the opening round. If KK starts strong and wins the opening round she could fade a bit and that will produce the best value on Randa. She might not fade, bu Markos isn’t worth a single bet at this price line. I do have her on my DraftKing’s ‘B’ squad. Her volume should be a big contributor to the final point total and at just $9000 she frees up some cash to add some bigger favourites.
MICHAEL JOHNSON $1.22 vs NATE DIAZ $5.44
I am not betting this fight. Period. Johnson should win, but every time I look at a different aspect of this matchup I see areas that could lead Nate to victory. Nate’s volume striking and Johnson’s suspect gas tank. Johnson’s poor submission defense and Diaz’s grappling acumen. There are a couple minor ones, but the point is as a predictor I am trying to determine how both men can win this fight. Nate has more ways to win then the $5.44 suggest. So I should reiterate- I am not betting Johnson in this fight. Diaz is a solid counter bet. No DK play here either.
ALISTAIR OVEREEM $1.37 vs JUNIOR DOS SANTOS $1.37
There is a very good chance that this fight determines the next title contender, unless both guys look like garbage or the winner gets hurt. JDS was destroying everyone on route to winning the title. Then he fought and got absolutely wrecked by Cain Velasquez, twice. Then he went through an absolute war with Stipe Miocic. How much has that taken out of him? How will that effect him heading into this fight. Overeem has found a nice mix of striking and defense. He has to be very careful because it would appear it doesn’t take much to put him down. At the same time, his wins have come over Mir, Struve, and Nelson. Decent HWs, but fighters that Overeem should be able to beat. The way I look at this fight is simple- by all accounts Junior is far more durable than Overeem. Without landing something huge, Overeem isn’t capable of carrying the type of pace that has beaten JDS up, without gassing out himself. The price is decent for JDS here, but not awesome. I will most likely slip him into a Silver section parlay as the 4th fold. I do have Junior on my #1 DraftKing’s squad. He will cost you $10900, but the chance of a knockout is very tempting and will offer up 95+ if it goes down in the opening frame.
RAFAEL DOS ANJOS $1.54 vs DONALD CERRONE $2.76
Main event time. I’ve got the Cowboy. I took him in their first meeting and felt he did look himself. It was close early until RDA clipped him with a big right hand. When I rewatched the fight (for probably the 4th time overall), I didn’t feel it was really that one-sided of a fight. Adding to it, Cowboy has improved the one key aspect of that fight that really hurt him- his wrestling. He has shut down almost every single TDA sent his way in the fights that followed. While RDA’s striking is very good and has come a long way, Cerrone is leathal. He has a significant reach advantage and knows how to use it. That will show up and watch his knee strikes to play a role when RDA tries to close the gap. A lot of people are pointing to Cerrone’s performance against Henderson. It wasn’t great and he probably got a gift decision. But, keep in the mind he fought on just 15-days’ notice and they are friends. With regard to the PEDs and RDA, he might have a looked a little less ripped at the weigh-in, but not much. If there are effects on his performance it will show up fairly quickly. That plays a significant role in how guys fight. At this price Cerrone is going to be a single bet for me. He will most likely make an appearance in the Wildcard parlay, but my main play is the single bet. Cerrone is the final piece of the puzzle in my top DK squad. At just $8900 it is hard not take him here. He is more than capable of pulling off the finish and is budget friendly price tag has allowed me to employ a trio of favourites in Jury, JDS, and Kaufman. Team is set.
1. SARAH KAUFMAN $1.69
2. JUNIOR DOS SANTOS $1.37
3. MICHAEL JOHNSON $1.22
4. KAMARU USMAN $1.42
5. MYLES JURY $1.69
6. CB DOLLAWAY $1.27
7. COLE MILLER $2.09
8. NIK LENTZ $2.05
9. JOSH SAMMAN $1.58
10. DONALD CERRONE $2.76
11. KAROLINA KOWALKIEWICZ $2.79
12. FRANCIS NGANNOU $2.05
13. VICENTE LUQUE $1.95
1. COLE MILLER $2.09
2.DONALD CERRONE $2.76
3. KAROLINA KOWALKIEWICZ $2.79
4. NIK LENTZ $2.05
5. SARAH KAUFMAN $1.69
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
1. NATE DIAZ $5.44- This fight won’t be as widespread as the odds indicate. Johnson could use his wrestling to take Diaz down, but that isn’t his normal approach. There are multiple scenarios where Nate gets the win, none are that crazy to not take a shot at this price.
The Counter Bet list consists of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.
Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.
Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.
The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.
There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.
Exclusive Bet Pack Content.
LUIS HENRIQUE /FRANCIS NGANNOU
See the Betting Scenario Section.
HAYDER HASSAN/ VICENTE LUQUE
See the Betting Scenario Section.
COLE MILLER/ JIM ALERS Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.62
Both men are capable finishers with a combined 29 wins inside the distance compared to 5 decision victories. Alers has also been stopped in both of his loses and Miller has suffered a pair of knockout defeats. Either man can finish, I am banking on Miller to hurt him on the feet and lock up a submission, watch for the back take and RNC from Miller in a scramble. Play the Under.
NIK LENTZ/DANNY CASTILLO Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.50
This should be a fairly close matchup and at $1.50, you really can’t go wrong here with the Over. 12 total decisions for Lentz compared to 11 for Castillo. In their combined UFC runs they have gone the full 15 minutes 19 times. While both have been finished, this fight should shake down with some stalled attempts to get the fight to the mat on both sides. If there is a takedown it will eat up that much more time. A lot of positional battles along the wall and some back forth striking exchanges without a real threat of the knockout. Play the Over.
CB DOLLAWAY/NATE MARQUARDT Total Rounds Over 1.5 $1.65
I understand why this fight has a great chance of ending early, but at 1.5 rounds- I like the Over. When you pair 2 veteran fighters together and both recognize how important this fight is to their future, don’t expect fireworks. I’m not saying the finish couldn’t come early, but I anticipate a big feeling out period followed by some tentative exchanges. Both realize the other is dangerous and neither wants to make a mistake. 12 Decisions for Marquardt, 9 for Dollaway. Dollaway has gone over the 1.5 total in 6 of his last 8 fights. For Nate, he has fought in 5 of his last 6 scheduled rounds. He had a trio of 1st round finishes, that came after stretch where he fought in 14 of a potential 15 rounds over 4 fights. Play the Over.
CHARLES OLIVEIRA/MYLES JURY
See the Betting Scenario Section.
ALISTAIR OVEREEM/JUNIOR DOS SANTOS Total Rounds Under 1.5 $1.71
I wouldn’t be shocked to see this bout go Over, possibly even go the distance. Overeem has been using a much more calculated approach to limited his defensive openings. It also has helped that his wins have come against fighters that weren’t huge knockout threats. Nelson is a threat, but we have seen a strong defensive front make his power a non-factor. But, in fights where his opponent was able to move forward and exchange, he got knocked out. That is what JDS will do. JDS has stopped his opponent 3 of his last 4 wins and he is extremely confident in his hands. He will also be grateful that he isn’t fighting a wrestler. There is also the possibility that the damage that JDS has experience of late has taken its toll and Overeem lands something big and stops him. Be wary with his pick, but the Under is my lean here.
RAFAEL DOS ANJOS/DONALD CERRONE
See the Betting Scenario Section.