UFC on FOX 12: Lawler vs Brown- Post Fight Breakdown & the Bet Pack
We have another rematch on tap after the latest UFC on Fox card. Robbie Lawler defeated the very game Matt Brown to claim another chance to square off with Johnny Hendricks for the Welterweight title. With the win, Lawler joins the likes of Renan Barao, Chad Mendes, and (until the injury bug reared its ugly head) Alex Gustafsson who will all get a second crack at an opponent who recently bested them with a title on the line.
UFC on Fox 12 didn’t produce the dramatic numbers of recent events with just 3 fights ending inside the distance and only a pair of underdogs walking away with wins. The main event though was a fantastic war and the co-main further pushed a future Light Heavyweight title contender into the forefront. Let’s take a look.
Noad Lahat opened the night with a decision win over Steven Siler. Lahat took the first two rounds before Siler rallied and took control of the fight in the third. Noad’s win was another example of an Early Preliminary Upset (EPU) panning out.
The second Strawweight bout in the UFC, first for Joe and Goldie, saw Joanna Jedrzejczyk defeat Juliana Lima with sound takedown defense and superior technical striking.
Despite his grappling credentials, Gilbert Burns vanquished Andreas Stahl mainly on the basis of his striking skills. If Burns can continue to develop his striking and master the cut to 155 he could be a future force.
Finalizing the Fight Pass portion of the night, Tiago Trator landed the better and more frequent strikes to outlast Akbarh Arreola in the fourth decision of the night. Fight Pass Prelim Predictions: 3-1.
The first finish of the night didn’t take long once the action switched to fox with Brian Ortega tapping out Michael De La Torre in just under 2 minutes. Ortega isn’t the most well rounded fighter but he is young still.
Hernani Perpetuo got off to a strong start but an injured armed prevented him from maintaining the pace and Tim Means took a clear decision 29-28 across the board.
The wrestling of Patrick Cummins took center stage next as he rag dolled his way to victory over Kyle Kingsbury. Kingsbury announced his retirement shortly after the bout. Cummins is now 2-1 in the UFC and a bout with Nikita Krylov would be an interesting scrap.
Finishing off the undercard, Jorge Masvidal rallied from an early knocked down to defeat Daron Cruickshank, doing a large portion of the damage on the basis of his wrestling. Masvidal is one of the most underrated fighters in the division, but it would be nice to see him pick up some momentum before getting tossed back in the deep end. James Krause would be interesting next opponent.
Prelim Prediction Record: 7-1
In an incredibly odd fight, Bobby Green took a split decision from former Strikeforce title challenger Josh Thomson. Thomson appeared to be the busier fighter in the first 2 rounds, but Green’s octagon control and trash verbal engagements appeared to carry more weight. Thomson had talked about retirement, but if he intends to stick around a fight with Jim Miller will get the winner back on track. For Green, he is on a significant roll and a bout with Edson Barboza would be a stern test for his allusive striking style.
Up next, Dennis Bermudez took the fight to Clay Guida and all but snuffed out his chance to climbing the ladder at 145. In the aftermath, Berudez has called for a title shot. A fight with either the Korean Zombie or Ricardo Lamas would be an excellent test for him. For Guida, his chances of fighting for a title are over, but there are a few fun fights for him left at 155. A Diego Sanchez rematch could be fun.
The co-main event brought the rumble as Anthony Johnson quickly separated Antonio Rogerio Nogueira from his consciousness and simultaneously grabbed a spot inline as a potential title challenger or the current King of the 205ers. Johnson will most likely need to earn another victory or maybe even 2 to stay busy. A meeting with the winner of the upcoming OSP/ Ryan Bader bout makes the most sense. If that doesn’t pan out and they would like to continue Rumble’s push on name value a pairing with Shogun Rua would add to his resume. For Little Nog, a meeting with the same Rua would work or a rematch with Dan Henderson could also work. Retirement is also an option.
In the main event Robbie Lawler was simply too much for Matt Brown and will now vie for the title against Johnny Hendricks. Brown had his moments, but Lawler controlled the majority of the action did more damage with his strikes. Brown is still an entertaining fighter and has a lot to offer, a bout with Tyron Woodley would make sense if he wasn’t already engaged, so let’s pair him with Jake Ellenberger. For Lawler, he look good and appeared to tighten his defensive striking up a bit. If he can continue to limit what he absorbs from his opponent he will have a legitimate shot to leave with the title.
Overall Prediction record 9-3-0
From a predictor’s standpoint it is just as important to know when not to pick upsets as was the case with a 7-1 prelim record. Unfortunately, my tendency to ‘force’ predictions in the Guida/ Bermudez fight cost me as Bermudez was far and away the superior fighter.
The bet pack is posted below, the Prediction Panel member’s records have been updated, and the Sprawl N Brawl winner and top 5 have been posted. Onward and upward or forward, I’m not sure what works best here.
UFC on FOX 12
When its broke, or at least not paying out like it should be, its time to fix it. Instead of putting together Parlays based on what type of bettor you might be, we are going to rank each parlay/ single bet based on 3 things- Value, Risk, and Confidence. It will be up to you to decide which plays you feel like making and which ones you are going to pass on.
Not all events are created equal when it comes to betting. On some nights there are simply more opportunities to make money or plays that I feel more comfortable with than others.
Keep in mind this is gambling- there is massive risk involved any time you lay money on the line and with the unpredictability of a sport like MMA it only makes it tougher. All we can do is prepare ourselves to the fullest extend and make bets that we feel good about. Let’s make some money!
GOLD- Bets posted in this section will have a solid payout, involve moderate risk, but my confidence level will be high. Single bets and 2-3 fight parlays, potentially the odd prop bet.
SILVER- Bets posted in this section will have a solid to slightly higher payout, but will involved a little more risk and while I am confident enough to post these bets, I do see where we could go wrong. Single bets, 3-4 fight parlays and prop bets. More Underdogs involved.
BRONZE- Bets posted in this section will normally have the highest payouts, but also involve the most risk. Major Underdogs, larger parlays, and higher risk prop bets.
WILDCARD- This section will include bets only to be made if you have some extra cash. Most posts in this section will be long shots to hit or at least have a lot of working parts involved, but if they do the win the payout will be significant.
=================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: Selection 2: Josh Thomson $1.42 Selection 3: Tim Means $1.43 =================================================== Price: $2.93 x Bet: $100 Payout: $293 =================================================== Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: Anthony Johnson to Win by KO/TKO/ DQ $1.83 Selection 2: Robbie Lawler/ Selection 3: =================================================== Price: $4.46 x Bet: $100 Payout: $446 =================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: Clay Guida $2.40 =================================================== Price: $2.40 x Bet: $100 Payout: $240 =================================================== Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: Juliana Lima/ Selection 2: Patrick Cummins $1.85 Selection 3: Steven Siler $1.43 =================================================== Price: $7.94 x Bet: $100 Payout: $794 =================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: Selection 2: Selection 3: Akbarh Arreola/ Selection 4: Kyle Kingsbury/ =================================================== Price: $13.22 x Bet: $100 Payout: $1322 =================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: Akbarh Arreola/ Selecion 2: Robbie Lawler/ Selection 3: Clay Guida $2.40 Selection 4: Juliana Lima/ =================================================== Price: $30.42 x Bet: $100 Payout: $3042
Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns
Juliana Lima $3.41 vs
Two debuting fighters, a new weight class, single digit experience, one making her first cut to 115 pounds. Check, check, check, check. The stars would appear aligned for an EPU candidate and for you and me to hit Lima hard. Unfortunately, I see JJ hitting her even harder. The key to making the EPU theory work is when we are able to identify fighter or fights that won’t fall into this category. Despite all of these factors mentioned above, I just don’t see Lima beating JJ. Lima seems pretty rough around the edges on the feet and while she looks decent on top it is against low level comp, JJ is not low level. Her striking is pretty diverse and she hits incredibly hard. The manner in which she dispatched Rosi Sexton was down right impressive and keep in mind she is now fighting at 115- her power should translate. Another factor I like to look at and I will call it from this point on the ‘Brock Lesnar Question’ or the BLQ is how does Lima react to being hit. In the footage I have seen she got crack with a couple low power shots from a less then refined striker and immediately shot out of desperation. It seems that she doesn’t like or better yet doesn’t react well to getting punch and this could result in her shutting down when JJ starts to unload. As a result I think that at $1.37 we could certainly consider playing JJ as part of a parlay, nothing too extensive as her pay is limited. More interesting is a potential prop bet coming through here. This was long, I will move the rest to the prop section.
Andreas Stahl $2.40 vs
Two debuting fighters, single digit experience, limited fight footage, first state-side bout for both (I believe), and Burns moving up to 170. Check, check, check, check. The stars would appear aligned for another EPU candidate. Prior to researching this fight, when I was just looking over the lineup this fight stood out to me as a legit as a fight to really look at and research. Unfortunately, there is really limited and older footage for available for both guys. Most of my research consisted of reading reports and breakdowns of their styles. I feel that Stahl has an excellent chance to walk away with the win in this bout, his size and wrestling skill could work to keep Burns fro implementing his grappling game. On the other side of things, from what I have watched and read Burns appears to be the real deal on the mat and that is scary. He comes from a good camp and has some workable striking to supplement his attack. Niinimaki vs Yahya comes to mind with a elite level BJJ player moving up a weight class to take on a strong European based grappler making his debut. We know how that one turned out, but keep in mind Niinimaki had a tonne of experience heading into that bout, Stahl does not. Long story short, I think that Burns’ pedigree will carry the day and he has some value at $1.66 for a parlay- especially considering the limited numbers of dogs I took. I will most likely avoid playing him too extensively though and may take a stab at a prop bet as well.
Steven Siler $1.43 vs
Lahat got blasted in his debut, put to sleep by a fighter on the verge of the unemployment line. He had fought some questionable opposition prior to signing on with the UFC and his debut did anything but help those issues. Lahat can grapple, but I struggle to see him finding much success against the double tough Siler. Power wrestlers have been Siler’s undoing and that is not what Lahat has to offer. Siler will be just too active and too aggressive for Noad to deal with. As far as betting is concerned I intend to use Siler on a parlay or 2. The price isn’t great, but its better to work with the favs you feel confident in then just take a massive risk on a big price tag.
Akbarh Arreola $2.91 vs
This fight will be entertaining as both guys are aggressive, but lack the technical refinement to turn this bout into a chess match. The combination of Trator’s aggressive striking and the manner in which Arreola crumbles under pressure seems like the most likely scenario. I am a bit concerned that the recklessness of Tiago could open himself up to getting cracked or taken down leading to a submission. There is enough of a punch to Trator’s price that he can work as part of a parlay, but again like a couple other fights on this card- a prop bet seems like the most worthwhile play here.
Mike De La Torre $2.44 vs
Here is another one of the 4 debuting fighters sitting as the betting favourite, there is a good chance one of them is going to come up short. Ortega could very well be that one, but I don’t think so. Many experts have pointed at MDLT’s success versus Bocek as grounds for winning this bout. Ortega is no doubt looking to get this fight to the ground and if MDLT handled himself against well versed LW like Bocek, he should have no problem here. But Mark was coming off a long layoff and hasn’t been nearly as dominant of late. That is one of the misconceptions of MMA, many people will look at a fighter’s last bout and then make a call based solely on what they see. Instead, we should be breaking down his entire resume and he has had some trouble with solid grapplers and been submitted multiple times. There is always some risk involved with such a high element of unknown, but I will be willing to take Ortega as a part of my parlays, probably in the Silver plays section.
Tim Means $1.43 vs
I like Means here, his only downfall over a very long stretch of time has been guys that have been able to out wrestle him and that is no Perpetuo’s strength. Could Hernani out strike him, potentially, but unlikely short of a lucky shot. Perpetuo comes in with a rep for being a striker, but he certainly didn’t look the part in the debut. I anticipate Means will benefit from the lack of defensive wrestling he will need to focus on and really unload with his striking arsenal. Means makes the grade for a Gold play in the parlay section.
Kyle Kingsbury $2.37 vs
I put some thought into Kingsbury taking this fight. I wasn’t that impressed with Cummins’s striking and his takedown game was mediocre against a natural MW. He has the credentials, but credentials and actually executing in the cage are 2 different things. The thing that I kept coming back to though is that Kingsbury couldn’t stay on his feet against anyone will to commit to taking him down. Additionally, you’ve got 2 years worth of ring rust to consider and his lack luster cardio that could cost him in a longer fight against a guy constantly pursuing the takedown. I’m glad that Kingsbury is back and he can certainly add some depth to the division, but I think if Cummins is as good as everyone in the company wants to promote him as- he should win this fight. Price wise it is all over the place, both guys are breaking the $2 mark depending on where you think. Cummins is more frequently the favourite, but if you have the option look around. Currently I am on the fence with where to play Cummins. If I do put together a parlay in the Gold section he will most likely be the one I use to add a little pop to the parlay. Wait and see.
Daron Cruickshank $3.11 vs
Here is another play I really like. Masivdal could be one of the most underrated fighters in the division. His striking is sharp and his wrestling, both offensively and defensively, is fantastic. The one knock on him is that he tends to be a little too patient and or lack that killer instinct. For Cruickshank he looked impressive against Mike Rio (no big deal) and Erik Koch. I’m not sold on Koch and really don’t feel DC’s win is that big a deal. Masvidal will either bust him up on the feet with better and crisper striking to keep him backing up all fight or land some big takedowns, with some key top control time. I will most definitely be using Masvidal on a Gold Parlay, no doubt.
Josh Thomson $1.42 vs
I like Thomson here and his price is solid for the risk factor here. I read one bloody breakdown that talked about Green beating Volkmann as evidence that he could hang with and beat Thomson. Did they even watch that fight? Green was getting owned on the mat until the combo of damage on the feet and Volkmann gassing out opened the door for Bobby. I anticipate that Green will have his moments, but Thomson’s speed and kicking game will help manage the distance when they are on the feet and his wrestling skills will be more then enough to control Green on the floor. I like Thomson here, same feeling on him as Masvidal and they will most likely make their way onto the same parlay card.
Clay Guida $2.40 vs
Here is my only real upset pick of the night. Bermudez is on a roll for sure, but he really hasn’t faced anyone like Guida before. In fact, he has faced mainly taller, less wrestling inclined opponent that’s he was able to out grapple on route to victory. The one time he did face a fellow wrestler, Matt Grice, it was a very close battle. I see some aspects of Clay’s TDs and DB’s TDD that line up in favour of Guida. I also think that Guida’s odd movement style and frustrating front will do just that and frustrate Dennis into making some poor choices. The more and more I think about this fight I feel like Clay could sneak into the Gold package as a single bet, he certainly will be a Silver play.
Anthony Johnson $1.19 vs
I will keep it simple here; I won’t be playing this fight straight up on either side, but a prop bet is looking very enticing.
Robbie Lawler $1.29 vs
I is a bit of a letdown that Brown isn’t getting more credit heading into this fight as his price would be lower and Robbie Lawler would have more value. Unfortunately the odds makers see the same thing that we do. Body shot. Either Robbie stops him with one and a follow up barrage or he hurts him, force Matt to protect his midsection and that creates an opening for a head kick or Robbie’s hands to land. No straight up play but I will be looking long and hard at a couple of prop bets here.
Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)
1. Anthony Johnson $1.19
3. Robbie Lawler $1.29
4. Josh Thomson $1.42
5. Tim Means $1.43
7. Steven Siler $1.43
8. Clay Guida $2.40
9. Patrick Cummins $1.85
10. Tiago Trator $1.50
Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)
|1.||Clay Guida||$2.40||Clay is coming off a pretty solid win over a top level wrestler, I think he outworks Bermudez in what could be a close bout. He will do just enough to win.|
|2.||Juliana Lima/||$3.00||I know I said that I wanted to get away from prop bets in this section, but there are limit big payers on this card and I really see potential for this fight to end early. $3.00 is way too much to pass up. BLQ.|
|3.||Patrick Cummins||$1.85||Some books have him over $2.10 which makes him even more enticing. I am not sold on him as the prospect that the UFC is pushing him as, but he has the tools to win this one.|
|4.||Anthony Johnson to Win by KO/TKO/ DQ||$1.83||I don’t think that I need to go into much detail here. Rumble throws heat and Nog is a shell of his former self coming off a massive layoff.|
|5.||Akbarh Arreola/||$2.50||This fight will be violent and both guys have been stopped several times and are known for their finishing skills.|
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
- Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
- I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.
Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)
|1.||Andreas Stahl||$2.40||I think Stahl has the ability to neutralize Burns grappling attack and keep it on the feet. EPU.|
|2.||Mike De La Torre||$2.44||Similar situation to the fight above, another EPU candidate.|
The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.
Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.
Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.
The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.
There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.
Anthony Johnson to Win by KO/TKO/ DQ $1.83- I was certainly looking at the under, but I could see Little Nog surviving through the first half the fight. Johnson hits hard, but 1.5 rounds might not be enough to get the job done here. I will take the reduced price and give him the entire fight to finish his opponent.