UFC on FOX 11- Post Fight Review + the Bet Pack

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Prelims

265lbs- Derrick Lewis (9-2-1NC) vs Jack May (7-0-0)

May came out with an objective to take Lewis down and finish it. He got Lewis down and began to rain shots on him. Lewis did a great job of getting out and hit May with a barrage of shots. He went down and covered up, only to receive more and more punches. Lewis picked up the TKO victory. 1-0

145lbs- Mirsad Bektic (7-0-0) vs Chas Kelly (11-0-0)

This was a war. Bektic started to land some great shots in the first. He was able to pick Kelly apart. In the 2nd round, Kelly had Bektic against the cage and landed a huge illegal knee that rocked Mirsad. He took the most part of his five minutes and recovered well. The 3rd round was very close leading up to the middle of it. Bektic rushed Kelly with a big double leg takedown and controlled him for the remainder of the round. Bektic got the majority decision victory. 2-0

125lbs- Dustin Ortiz #13(12-3-0) vs Ray Borg (6-0-0)

This was a complete grappling match. Borg had great control going into the fight. He took Ortiz down early and did not look nervous. The rest of the fight was filled with back and forth grappling and Ortiz picked up the very close split decision win. 3-0

170lbs- Jordan Mein (27-9-0) vs Hernani Perpetuo (17-3-0)

I was surprised Mein didn’t go for the kill in the 1st round. He stayed calm and picked his shots. Perpetuo became frustrated with his non-ability to catch Mein in the 1st and 2nd. He kept his distance throughout the fight and kept hitting Hernani with strikes. Mein picked up a decision win. 4-0

185lbs- Caio Magalhaes (7-1-0) vs Luke Zachrich (13-2-0)

Caio looked great. He came out guns-blazing and caught Luke early. He was rocked and ate more and more shots until the ref stepped in. Only took 44 seconds for Caio to win. Magalhaes got the TKO victory. 5-0

145lbs- Estevan Payan (14-5-1NC) vs Alex White (9-0-0)

We saw a very good debut here. White made very quick work of Payan. He ate some of Estevan’s shots early but then landed a huge counter right hand that floored him. He got Payan against the cage and landed bombs that put him to sleep. White got the huge KO win. 6-0

155lbs- Jorge Masvidal (25-8-0) vs Pat Healy (31-8-1NC)

This was a little more boring than expected. It was a very technical battle. Healy got Jorge against the cage and tried for takedowns constantly. Masvidal would push off and land some great strikes. This continued for the most of the remainder of the fight. Healy landed a couple takedowns, but that wasn’t enough for Jorge’s striking. Masvidal picked up the unanimous decision victory. 7-0

170lbs- Thiago Alves (19-9-0) vs Seth Baczynski (19-10-0)

This was a back and forth battle. Seth looked great in the first round, throwing a large quantity of combos that hit Alves over and over. Thiago did land a lot of leg kicks in the 1st. Alves had his way in the 2nd, landing a lot of kicks to the body and legs. The 3rd was a war that consisted of more combos by Seth, but way more counters and kicks by Thiago. Alves got the decision win. 8-0

155lbs- Rafael Dos Anjos #5 (20-6-0) vs Khabib Nurmagomedov #7 (21-0-0)

This was a domination by Khabib. He used his quick striking and judo to frustrate Dos Anjos for 15 minutes. Rafael wasn’t able to do much to defend his grappling. Khabib has world class ground game and he moved closer to a title shot. Nurmagomedov got the unanimous decision victory. 9-0

Main Card

185lbs- Brad Tavares #13 (12-1-0) vs Yoel Romero #14 (7-1-0)

This was a complete domination by Yoel Romero. He rocked Tavares early and controlled him with his dominant wrestling style. Yoel showed the world he is a top contender. There is not much to say about this besides….WOW. Romero got the decision win. 9-1

155lbs- Donald Cerrone #8 (22-6-1NC) vs Edson Barboza #12 (13-1-0)

Barboza started this one off with some great timed striking. Cerrone wasn’t covering up well and ate some good shots. About 3 minutes into it, Cerrone landed a stiff jab that rocked Edson. He fell and Donald went right for his neck. He locked in the rear-naked choke and that was it. Cerrone got the win by submission. 10-1

Women’s 135lbs- Miesha Tate #3 (13-5-0) vs Liz Carmouche #7 (9-4-0)

I thought this was going to be action packed. It was the opposite for a while. Tate came out very calm, a little too calm. Carmouche got Tate on the ground and controlled her for the whole 1st round. In the 2nd, Liz got another takedown and tried doing what she did in the 1st. She executed her game plan for about 2 minutes before Miesha reversed her and got on top. She remained there for a while and the round ended. In the 3rd, Tate used her striking to her adv. and rocked Liz a bit. She took Liz down and tried to lock in the rear-naked choke. It was very tight, but Liz got out with 30 seconds to spare. Tate got the very close decision win. 11-1

265lbs- Fabricio Werdum #2 (17-5-1) vs Travis Browne #3 (16-1-1)

This was a complete domination by Fabricio Werdum. Browne gassed very quickly in this fight. He was taken down for the 1st time in his career. Werdum landed so many punches and kicks to Browne in the duration of this bout. I was surprised Travis did not go down. Werdum looked new and improved. It was a bit embarrassing watching Browne fight, a little more for the people who picked him (me). Fabricio even had some fun in there, taunting Browne before he would hit him. Werdum out-performed Browne in every area tonight. Werdum got the decision win. 11-2

Thanks for reading and check out the bet pack results below!


UFC on FOX 11

Parlay Breakdowns

In an effort to accommodate different styles of MMA Bettors I have compiled 7 different possible betting cards to help you maximize your profit depending on what style of gambler you are and how much money you want to allocate to each card.

Big Money Bettors- for players with a higher bankroll willing to put a lot of cash on the line to turn a profit and build a growing account, focusing mainly on single bets and well placed parlays.

Recreational Bettors- for players that will allocate a decent sized bankroll per event, but would rather spread out their bets and try and turn smaller investments into big returns with larger parlays.

For Fun Bettors- for players that are putting a little bit of cash on the line just to have a good time and have no problem playing a high risk parlay hoping to cash that big payday.

Big Money Bettor, Budget: $500

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Luke Zachrich $3.35
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Price: $3.35 x Bet: $100
Payout: $335
 
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Parlay #2
===================================================
Selection 1: Liz Carmouche $2.80
Selection 2: Khabib Nurmagomedov to Win by Decision $1.94
===================================================
Price: $5.44 x Bet: $100
Payout: $544
 
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Parlay #3
===================================================
Selection 1: Brad Tavares $1.82
Selection 2: Mirsad Bektic $2.15
Selection 3: Jorge Masvidal to Win by Decision $2.10
===================================================
Price: $8.22 x Bet: $100
Payout: $822
 
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Parlay #4
===================================================
Selection 1: Donald Cerrone $2.04
Selection 2: Estevan Payan $1.67
Selection 3: Luke Zachrich $3.35
===================================================
Price: $11.42 x Bet: $100
Payout: $1142
 
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Parlay #5
===================================================
Selection 1: Travis Browne $1.50
Selection 2: Khabib Nurmagomedov to Win by Decision $1.94
Selection 3: Jorge Masvidal to Win by Decision $2.10
Selection 4: Brad Tavares $1.82
===================================================
Price: $11.13 x Bet: $100
Payout: $1113

Recreational Bettor, Budget: $200

==================================================
Parlay #1
===================================================
Selection 1: Luke Zachrich $3.35
Selection 2: Brad Tavares $1.82
===================================================
Price: $6.10 x Bet: $75
Payout: $457.50
 
Parlay #2
===================================================
Selection 1: Liz Carmouche $2.80
Selection 2: Khabib Nurmagomedov to Win by Decision $1.94
Selection 3: Donald Cerrone $2.04
===================================================
Price: $11.09 x Bet: $50
Payout: $554.50
 
Parlay #3
===================================================
Selection 1: Jorge Masvidal to Win by Decision $2.10
Selection 2: Estevan Payan $1.67
Selection 3: Derrick Lewis/ Jack May Total Rounds Under 1.5 $1.61
Selection 4: Jordan Mein/ Hernani Perpetuo Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.60
Selection 5: Mirsad Bektic $2.15
===================================================
Price: $31.59 x Bet: $25
Payout: $789.75
 
Parlay #4
===================================================
Selection 1: Brad Tavares $1.82
Selection 2: Khabib Nurmagomedov to Win by Decision $1.94
Selection 3: Jorge Masvidal to Win by Decision $2.10
Selection 4: Travis Browne $1.50
===================================================
Price: $11.13 x Bet: $50
Payout: $556.50
 

For Fun Bettor, Budget: $50

===================================================
Parlay #1
===================================================
Selection 1: Luke Zachrich $3.35
Selection 2: Mirsad Bektic $2.15
Selection 3: Brad Tavares $1.82
Selection 4: Travis Browne $1.50
===================================================
Price: $19.67 x Bet: $25
Payout: $491.75
 

==================================================

Parlay #2
===================================================
Selection 1: Khabib Nurmagomedov to Win by Decision $1.94
Selection 2: Jorge Masvidal to Win by Decision $2.10
Selection 3: Donald Cerrone $2.04
Selection 4: Liz Carmouche $2.80
===================================================
Price: $23.28 x Bet: $25
Payout: $582
 
 

Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns

265lbs- Derrick Lewis $1.33 vs Jack May $3.50

Both guys are new and normally that would have mean leaning towards the underdog here based on the EPU, but I just don’t like May’s cardio and chin and for that matter his competition level. Conversely, Lewis has faced some decent talent and done well in those fights. I wouldn’t be shocked if May got the win, but most likely it has to be early which he has a pension for anyways. My play here is to leave the straight up bet a long as a debuting fighter with this type of value really isn’t that appealing. I like a prop bet on the under though, check the prop section for more details.

145lbs- Mirsad Bektic $2.15 vs Chas Kelly $1.69

This line has jumped incredibly and it wouldn’t shock me if it draw close to even by bell time. Mirsad opened as a big dog but things have shifted his value down. Kelly comes from a great wrestling background and has looked good in Bellator and just about anywhere else he has competed, but Mirsad is an absolute physical monster. In addition to his power/ strength he is a gifted athlete with a pretty big toolbox. I like the upset here, I think he outworks Kelly and gets the better of hi as long as he avoid getting put on his back too often. I will be looking a single bet for Mirsad, but with the dip in overall value I will probably take a look at him playing a role in my parlays as well.

125lbs- Dustin Ortiz $1.43 vs Ray Borg $2.85

I have been impressed with Ortiz and he narrowly missed being 2-0 in the UFC, but lost a close decision against a former title challenger. I think Ortiz gets it done against a young prospect based on grit, durability, and his wrestling. His ground game looked very good against a talented wrestler in Moraga and had he been able to do a little more standing he wins that fight. Borg is dangerous so be selective, but Ortiz fits nicely on a parlay of 3-4 fighters.

170lbs- Jordan Mein $1.26 vs Hernani Perpetuo $4.36

I like Mein, he is very talented and very young, but he has a tonne of experience already. In fact, I’m not sure how long his career will last based on the number of battles he has been through, especially his grueling fight against Brown. He is returning after a long break and his opponent is debuting on short notice. Both guys are finishers so I am tempted to leave Mein of my bet card at such a low price instead look at the Under as the most viable betting option.

185lbs- Ciao Magalhaes $1.33 vs Luke Zachrich $3.35

I am simply not sold on Ciao, he should be 0-3 and unemployed but instead he is 2-1 which is quite shocking. He was getting crushed on the mat against Vemola until he gassed very hard and was losing to Ring until Nick suffered an injury he could not overcome. Zachrich is more battled tested and while he is making his debut I think he has the edge in experience as well. If Luke can keep this fight standing he should have the striking edge and be able to outwork his opponent who appears to lack a strong wrestling game. I think the price on Zachrich is a gift and should be bet as such. I will be making a larger single play here on the lesser-known but more complete fighter.

145lbs- Estevan Payan $1.67 vs Alex White $2.20

There is some value with Payan, but that is also a testament to White being dangerous. White is taking this fight on short notice and stepping up to the big leagues for the first time. Payan is a battle tested vet and he looked good in his last fight through 2 until he got knocked out. Most likely Payan is fighting for spot on the roster and that will show up in his performance. I think that between his striking and the top game he showed in is last fight he can edge this one out. I will be using him on a parlay, but not going overboard as White does have some tools that could give Payan some trouble.

155lbs- Jorge Masvidal $1.50 vs Pat Healy $2.91

Masvidal can’t let Healy outwork him, that is what this fight comes down too. Jorge has great striking and above average wrestling, but he does let his foot off the gas once in a while and Healy is the type of fighter that will jump on that type of opportunity. Healy’s lack of speed cost him in his last fight and as long as Masvidal can stick and move he will should be able to replicate that type of success. I wouldn’t even be that shocked to see Masvidal take Healy down at some point. For betting purposes $1.50 doesn’t exactly jump off the charts, but it can be serviceable in 3-4 fighter parlays which is the right play for Masvidal. The over might also work.

170lbs- Thiago Alves $1.26 vs Seth Baczynski $4.36

I wont be betting on Alves straight up despite the fact that he should take this fight in fairly dominant fashion. He has been out too long and tangling with a bigger man could bring about some past cardio issues that may cost him later in the fight. I will consider the Under, especially if it comes in at 2.5 rounds, which it looks like it will. I think that Alves will either land a big punch or chop him down with brutal leg kicks bringing about a possible finish.

155lbs- Rafael Dos Anjos $3.24 vs Khabib Nurmagomedov $1.40

This fight will be closer then the odds indicate which could be reason to encourage a single bet on RDA. He has all the tools to win, especially if Nurmy is off a bit. I still think that the wrestling and pace of the Russian carries the day, but I think his chin is there to be hit. The bigger question is can it be cracked? Nurmagomedov’s price isn’t that strong, it might work on a parlay, but I think that the Over at pretty much the same price is a slightly stronger play. I see this fight going the distance and I would rather be on the Over then a fighter if it is close. Both work, maybe use Nurmy on one parlay and the other on another.

185lbs- Brad Tavares $1.82 vs. Yoel Romero $2.02

Romero has violently finished all of his fights in the UFC, but he had to in his last win because he lost the first 2 rounds vs Brunson. He is a very entertaining striker and can give his opponents fits, but Brunson was getting the better of him until he gassed. Tavares has a good gas tank and his striking technique continues to show improvement one fight to the next. He should be the more technical striker and the busier one. He simply needs to avoid taking the big shots that the previous men who faced Romero could not. If Romero used his wrestling more offensively (he still could, but he hasn’t yet) I would probably be siding with him here, but he doesn’t do enough offensively and his defensive work has been poor. I like Tavares on a parlay of 3-4 fighters as he has a lot of value. Simple as that.

155lbs- Donald Cerrone $2.04 vs. Edson Barboza $1.87

Cerrone has slipped into the realm of the underdog after opening as a favourite. He has a reputation of coming up short in big fights like this one. Against RDA he lost handily in a bout where he was the favourite and many felt would have put him one fight short of a shot at the title. He has also lost to Nate Diaz and Anthony Pettis when he was just a win away from a title shot. If he is going to continue his downward slide, this is the type of fight that he losses. He has looked very motivated in his last 2 fights and I think he comes our firing. Barboza is a killer, but he looks far better when he is against lower level fighters and wrestling based opponents with basic striking skills. he got destroyed by Varner and rocked by Castillo and had some trouble with Anthony Njokuani and Ross Pearson when they pushed him. Cerrone has to be first here and move forward to shut down Edson’s kicking game. This will be a great bout and Cowboy works as a solid contributor to a parlay of 3-4 fighters.

135lbs- Miesha Tate $1.49 vs Liz Carmouche $2.80

I am a little surprised that Tate is this big of a favourite. I think some of it must be her very public feud with Ronda Rousey that will attract some cash as her name stands out more then Liz’s. I keep harping on this, but Tate hasn’t looked good in a while, basically since winning the title back in Strikeforce. I think this fight will be much closer then the odds indicate and unless Tate can lay on top of Liz for 3 rounds she will be in tough. Carmouche is very strong, hits hard, and I could see her outworking Miesha start to finish. I wonder it Tate’s motivation will be there as after her first loss to Ronda she seems disinterested in MMA and talked about taking a break I can’t see a second loss improving that attitude. There is value on Carmouche and I am leaning towards a single bet here, possibly working her into a parlay but the single bet is my first option.

265lbs- Fabricio Werdum $2.80 vs Travis Browne $1.50

Werdum is the more well rounded fighter with one of if not the best ground games in the division and an a vastly improved Muay Thai attack. Browne is a massive man with above average quickness and big time knockout power. I am not basing my prediction on TB’s ability to obliterate opponents with elbows when they commit to a shot, but that is a possibility. I am just not confident in Werdum’s ability to take Browne down and if he can’t, I don’t see him out striking him. Browne hits way to hard to stand and trade and I think Werdum will fade if he doesn’t get stopped before that transpires. At $1.50 that is a pretty solid play for a parlay. At HW I would normally jump on the under, but I could see Browne being a little more paced early to avoid making a mistake that leads to a takedown.


Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1. Travis Browne $1.50

2. Thiago Alves $1.26

3. Jordan Mein $1.26

4. Jorge Masvidal $1.50

5. Khabib Nurmagomedov $1.40

====================

6. Dustin Ortiz $1.43

7. Derrick Lewis $1.33

8. Brad Tavares $1.82

9. Luke Zachrich $3.35

10. Donald Cerrone $2.04

11. Estevan Payan $1.67

12.Liz Carmouche $2.80

13. Mirsad Bektic $2.15


Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. Luke Zachrich $3.35 He is a more well rounded fighter with more experience. I just don’t see how Magalhaes who has struggled tremendously and is only still employed because of his opponent’s shortcomings is this big of a fav.
2. Liz Carmouche $2.80 Miesha Tate hasn’t shown me enough to be this big of a fav here. I think Liz simply outworks her.
3. Mirsad Bektic $2.15 The price has dropped significantly, but I still like him here. If their ground games cancel each other out then Bektic is far from the underdog.
4. Donald Cerrone $2.04 This is it for Cerrone if he loses, he can still make a solid career for himself but I struggle to believe he will ever get back into the title hunt with another defeat against a lower ranked opponent.
5. Jorge Masvidal to Win by Decision $2.10 Masvidal has power and submission skills, but he goes to a lot of decision and his game plan will be built on not making mistakes to allow Healy to close the distance.

The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

  • Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
  • I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.

Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. Jack May $3.50 He has first round stopping power, but needs to get it done before the opening round ends.
2. N/A
3.
4.
5.

The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.

Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.

Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.

The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.

There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.


Prop Bets-

Derrick Lewis/ Jack May Total Rounds Under 1.5 $1.61- Both guys have serious stopping power and this bout ending inside the first half is a real possibility. All of May’s wins have come before the 3 minute mark with the exception of one. Additionally, his questionable chin and cardio will create openings for Lewis to shut it down too. Big men, big power, big possibility the under hits.

Mirsad Bektic/ Chas Kelly Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.40- Bektic is a killer and doesn’t mess around once he gets a positional advantage with multiple quick finishes. Chas is equally as capable of bringing about a premature end to the fight with his submission game. Play the Under.

Jordan Mein/ Hernani Perpetuo Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.60- Mein has some serious stopping power and Perpetuo is an aggressive striker that leaves some sizeable defensive gaps in his game. I would feel better if we got the extra round, but I will still take a run at this total for this price.

Jorge Masvidal to Win by Decision $2.10- Healy is a pretty tough customer and I expect that Masvidal will try to stick and move, out point him, and avoid letting Bam Bam close the distance. The decision pulls up his price a little and the value makes this a more of a playable option then the Over.

Thiago Alves/ Seth Baczynski Total Rounds Under 2.5 $1.85- Alves could be cautious in his return, but I see him coming out and blasting the legs of Seth and then when he slows down dropping some bombs on his chin. Seth got put out by Brian Melancon and Thaigo should be an even greater threat on the feet.

Khabib Nurmagomedov to Win by Decision $1.94- Playing this fight straight up on Nurmy isn’t that appealing at $1.40, but taking a shot at the decision heightens my interest. I have talked about the number of headlining preliminary bouts that end in decision as I feel they usually match up 2 very solid fighters in this position- which is clearly the case here. Play the decision.