UFC on FOX 10: Henderson vs. Thomson: Results & Bet Pack

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Prelims

265lbs- Walt Harris (6-2-0) vs Nikita Krylov (15-3-0)

Krylov came out and landed a flush fight head kick that rocked Harris. He pushed forward with heavy strikes that got Harris to the ground and he finishes him via TKO.  0-1

170lbs- George Sullivan (14-3-0) vs Mike Rhodes (6-1-0)

Rhodes came out and frustrated Sullivan with excellent timed strikes and a couple takedowns in the 1st. Starting with RD 2, Sullivan turned the tables and started landing some of his own strikes and lead in most significant strikes landed. He kept implementing his gameplan of keeping the fight standing. He controlled the 2nd and 3rd a picked up a 29-28 unanimous decision.   1-1

155lbs- Daron Cruickshank (13-4-0) vs Mike Rio (9-3-0)

The fight stayed tense for a bit to start off, Rio pushed him against the cage and landed some good hooks. Daron backed away and landed a huge head kick that rocked Rio, Daron tried finishing it, but the 1st round ended. In the 2nd, Cruickshank landed a huge spinning wheel kick to Rio’s face. He fell to the canvas and Daron finished off and got a TKO victory.  2-1

135lbs- Junior Hernandez (13-5-0) vs Hugo Viana (7-1-0)

Viana landed some heavy shots in the 1st that rocked Hernandez. Throughout the fight, Viana kept the same pace. He countered Hernandez’s shots and picked him apart on the feet. Hernandez pushed forward the last 30 seconds of the fight, but it wasn’t enough. Viana picked up a unanimous decision win. 3-1

135lbs- Chico Camus (13-4-0) vs Yaotzin Meza (20-8-0)

Meza came out and landed a takedown. After about 30 seconds in guard, Camus reversed Meza to come out on top, in guard and stayed in position until the end of the first 1st. Meza came out in the 2nd and landed another takedown into guard. They got up and Camus pushed forward with a big right hand and another takedown. He took the mount and showed great grappling. Both fighters ended the 2nd on the feet after Meza pushed off Camus. Camus took Meza’s back in the 3rd and almost secured an RNC. He then controlled him for the rest of the round and picked up the unanimous decision win. 4-1

135lbs- Eddie Wineland (20-9-1) vs Yves Jabouin (19-8-0)

Wineland started off by landed good counter shots. Jabouin seemed to be busier later on, landed great kicks and landing more significant strikes. Eddie landed great combos in the 2nd that seemed to stun Yves. He dropped Jabouin and got into the mount position and landed huge shots. He then switched to the back and finished him via TKO. 5-1

135lbs- Alex Caceres (9-5-1) vs Sergio Pettis (10-0-0)

Caceres landed some great body/leg kicks early in this one. Pettis showed some good counter shots as well. Pettis stunned Caceres with a head kick and pressured Caceres against the cage. He almost finished Alex at the end of the 1st with some heavy shots. Caceres landed a huge right hand that floored Pettis to start off the 2nd. Pettis got up and recovered quickly and landed more counter punches. This turned in to a back and forth stand up battle. Pettis came out in the 3rd and took Caceres down. Alex quickly got up and continued to eat punches by Pettis. He took Sergio down and tried to secure the back, but failed. They shared punches and Caceres took Pettis down again and stayed on the back until he locked in the RNC. 6-1

Darren Elkins (17-3-0) vs Jeremy Stephens (22-9-0)

Elkins took Stephens down a couple minutes to end a stale mate. Stephens got up and Elkins kept pushing him against the cage. Stephens kept swinging for the fences, with only a couple landing. Jeremy landed a couple shots that stunned him to start the 2nd. He frustrated Elkins for the rest of the fight and won by a unanimous decision. 7-1

Donald Cerrone (21-6-1) vs Adriano Martins (24-6-0)

Cerrone came out with some nice leg kicks and body shots. Martins didn’t push forward that much, but when he did Cerrone hit him with a flush head kick that left him unconscious. Cerrone picked up the head kick KO victory. 8-1

Stipe Miocic (10-1-0) vs Gabriel Gonzaga (16-7-0)

This started out as an even battle. A punch for a punch, a kick for a kick. Gonzaga was great at catching Miocic any time he left his guard open. Stipe kept landing stiff jabs to counter him. Gonzaga ended the round on top of Micoic in guard. Stipe came out in the 2nd with a little more sense of urgency. He pressured Gonzaga and landed more jabs. Miocic dominated the rest of the round with great jabs, hooks, body shots, the kitchen sink. Miocic was landing the same shots in the 3rd and got Gonzaga down. He would never jump into guard because of Gonzaga’s upkicks. Once he jumped into half guard, he landed some great hammer fists until the horn sounded. Miocic got an impressive unanimous decision victory.  8-2

Benson Henderson (19-3-0) vs Josh Thomson (20-5-1)

Thomson landed a huge trip takedown and took the back of Benson and constantly tried for the RNC. Henderson stood up with Thomson on his back, shook him off and took the clinch. Henderson landed a trip takedown, Thomson stood up and Henderson had him in a standing arm-triangle, he laid back and tried to lock it in from guard on his back, but Thomson got out and the round ended. Josh took Bendo down and took his back again. Henderson stood up and shook him off again. Benson kept lunging forward with good body shots throughout each round. Henderson took the clinch again and landed some dirty boxing strikes. Thomson seemed to have hurt his hand in before the 3rd, Henderson took advantage by throwing many elbows and pushing forward. Ben came out in the 4th and landed a big head kick, but it didn’t seem to rock Josh, even though with a broken hand, he kept catching Bendo’s leg, and took him down. Henderson worked the rubber guard well once he was on his back. He got up and was kneeing the thighs and legs on Thomson really well once he took the clinch. Thomson took the back once he got him down again, and tried to get the RNC, but the round ended before he could get any efficient work in. Thomson pushed forward in the 5th with some leg kicks, and attempted to take the back again. Both fighters took the clinch again, and kept switching each other. The 5th round was pretty even. In a close fight, Benson Henderson picked up the split decision win. 9-2

The UFC on FOX 10 Bet pack is posted below with multiple big winners, make sure you check it out.

 


UFC on FOX 10

Parlay Breakdowns

Big Money Bettor, Budget: $500

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Ben Henderson Wins by Unanimous Decision $2.70
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Price: $2.70 x Bet: $125
Payout: $337.50
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Donald Cerrone to Win by Decision $2.55
===================================================
Price: $2.55 x Bet: $125
Payout: $318.75
 
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Parlay #3
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Selection 1: Alex Caceres $3.00
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Price: $3.00 x Bet: $75
Payout: $225
 
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Parlay #4
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Selection 1: Jeremy Stephens $1.87
Selection 2: Stipe Miocic to Win by TKO/KO/DQ $1.87
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Price: $3.50 x Bet: $75
Payout: $262.50
 
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Parlay #5
===================================================
Selection 1: Chico Camus $1.55
Selection 2: Daron Cruickshank $1.48
Selection 3: Walt Harris/
===================================================
Price: $3.92 x Bet: $50
Payout: $196
 
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Parlay #6
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Selection 1: Eddie Wineland/ Y
Selection 2: Stipe Miocic to Win by TKO/KO/DQ $1.87
Selection 3: Ben Henderson Wins by Unanimous Decision $2.70
===================================================
Price: $8.99 x Bet: $50
Payout: $449.50

Recreational Bettor, Budget: $250

==================================================
Parlay #1
===================================================
Selection 1: Ben Henderson Wins by Unanimous Decision $2.70
===================================================
Price: $2.70 x Bet: $75
Payout: $202.50
 
Parlay #2
===================================================
Selection 1: Donald Cerrone to Win by Decision $2.55
Selection 2: Jeremy Stephens $1.87
Selection 3: Stipe Miocic to Win by TKO/KO/DQ $1.87
===================================================
Price: $8.92 x Bet: $50
Payout: $445.85
 
Parlay #3
===================================================
Selection 1: Alex Caceres $3.00
Selection 2: Chico Camus $1.55
Selection 3: Daron Cruickshank $1.48
===================================================
Price: $6.88 x Bet: $50
Payout: $344
 
Parlay #4
===================================================
Selection 1: Walt Harris/
Selection 2: Eddie Wineland/ Y
Selection 3: Stipe Miocic $1.47
Selection 4: Donald Cerrone $1.55
===================================================
Price: $6.94 x Bet: $75
Payout: $520.50
 
For Fun Bettor, Budget: $50
===================================================
Parlay #1
===================================================
Selection 1: Donald Cerrone to Win by Decision $2.55
Selection 2: Jeremy Stephens $1.87
Selection 3: Stipe Miocic to Win by TKO/KO/DQ $1.87
Selection 4: Daron Cruickshank $1.48
===================================================
Price: $13.20 x Bet: $25
Payout: $330
 

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Parlay #2
===================================================
Selection 1: Ben Henderson Wins by Unanimous Decision $2.70
Selection 1: Alex Caceres $3.00
Selection 2: Chico Camus $1.55
===================================================
Price: $12.56 x Bet: $25
Payout: $314
 

Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns

Walt Harris $1.32 vs

Neither guy looked that great in their debut, but Harris looked better. Krylov is a little undersized for the division and that will show up again against big man in Harris. I don’t anticipate this bout going too deep and for both men that’s a good thing. If Nikita can get him to the mat he could hook up a sub, but that is going to be tough. Harris should be able to box him up on the feet as the quicker and more gifted striker. If you want to use Walt as the third part of your parlay to get a little bigger return you can or just leave this fight off all together. A prop bet might also work here as well.

George Sullivan $3.04 vs

I am tempted to play Rhodes just because he could add a little pop to you bet card, but considering we know so little about both of these guys it is probably easier to just sit this one out and not bother with it.

Daron Cruickshank $1.48 vs

Rio has not impressed me one bit in his UFC run. He lost the opening 2 rounds against Cofer before submitting him and then was tapped out twice inside the first frame. He also lost via submission on the show. That is not good for a fighter that needs to use his wrestling as his central point of attack. I think Cruickshank, while flawed in some areas, is simply the better fighter. If Rio had more to offer on the feet I wouldn’t be as big on DC as I am, but he is the play here. Most likely he keeps it standing and is simply better on the feet. DC’s value is useable in parlays of 2-3 fighters. He can work with just another above $1.45 guy to make for a low risk, but above $2.00 bet. That’s how to play him. Get it done.

Junior Hernandez $3.10 vs

I am not overly fond on betting this fight. Viana has tools and the physical capabilities, but there are still some openings that could really cost him. Hernandez has a few decent wins under his belt and didn’t get a chance to show what he actually can do in his debut. For my money, you are better off looking else where and just enjoying this scrap.

Chico Camus $1.55 vs Y

I like Camus in this spot. He has better striking and his wrestling should help him to fend off the attacks of a better submission fighter operating off his back. He needs to be careful not to get taken down, and to do this he has to control his aggression and not run head long into attacks. Meza has been stopped before on the feet and Camus has the ability to do it. Yaotzin is here because he took a fight on short notice, got destroyed, was granted another shot and beat a guy that nearly submitted him early and then gassed (something he has done several times). Camus game Kang all kinds of problems and I like Kang’s grappling game a lot more then Meza’s. Chico’s number looks good and would make for an excellent 2 fighter parlay with another decent paying favourite like Cerrone or Miocic.

Eddie Wineland $1.35 vs Y

Wineland is the better fighter and unless he gets caught early on, he should either stop Yves or outpoint him. If Eddie can hurt Brad Pickett, he can hurt Yves Jabouin. He doesn’t offer a tonne of value in the payout department, but he could he a serviceable part of a parlay bet. Attempting a play on Stipe, Eddie, and Cowboy could net you a decent return without much of a big risk.

Alex Caceres $3.00 vs

I took Campuzano to upset Pettis and I felt he gave him a pretty good run, but just didn’t do enough. His gas tank and short notice prep probably played a role in that. Pettis was also dealing with some jitters too which didn’t help, but I think that Caceres’s loose style and grappling capabilities will give Sergio some problems. People seem to be forgetting that Sergio success pre-UFC came at 125 and he is attempting to fight now at 135, taking on a former 145er. In his debut he fought a guy who was also more accustom to competing at Flyweight, so the size issue didn’t show up. Caceres has looked pretty decent since cutting down and shouldn’t be this big of a dog against a guy with 1 UFC fight and limit overall experience, no matter what his name is. Yes Pettis is a talented prospect and yes Pettis is more then capable of taking this fight home, but I think Caceres is being undervalued and can steel this bout. It will be close, but Brue Leeroy takes it home. I say a single bet works here. He has above average value and he should be bet accordingly.

Darren Elkins $1.87 vs

These odds reflect how close this fight could be. Elkins could take Stephens down and grinds him out or Stephens outboxes him for either a stoppage or a decision. It could be a combo of those 2 scenarios, but I tend to lean towards the ladder considering Elkins’s previous difficulty with power punchers. If Stephens continues to show his revitalized form in this bout then he should be able to keep it in his realm and outstrike him. Elkins has had a lot of success with his wrestling, but he isn’t a takedown machine line other talent wrestlers. He is more of a grind it out, lock up and muscle his usually smaller opponent to the floor. That could be tougher against a former LW. I like Stephens’s value, he most likely will come to play as one of my bigger straight up bets of the event, but he could also work his way into a parlay play before the night is over.

Donald Cerrone $1.55 vs

What Cowboy is coming to town for this one? If its the one that fought Nate Diaz or RDA that isn’t a good thing and Martins could very well leave the cage with the ‘W’ and derail Cerrone’s 2014 before it gets started. If its the one that steamrolled Dunham, then he should take this. I would go with the ladder simply because Cerrone knows that he is running out of chances to get a shot at the gold and a win against a relative unknown, but far from low quality opponent would be devastating. I am willing to risk that Cerrone shows up in fine form, but even then Martins won’t be a walk over. I like Cowboy as part of a parlay bet with 1-2 other fighters that can get the value to around the $2.50 range. If you can get Donald by decision at something over $2.00 that might be a decent play has been finished just once in 31 fights. The other option is to play Cerrone as part of a parlay and then Martins straight up as a single bet to recoup your losses if “Clownboy” shows instead of the real deal.

Stipe Miocic $1.47 vs

Gabe is a physically larger and skilled grappler which can present a lot of problems for guys that aren’t use to dealing with that combo. Stipe has to keep this fight standing, sprawl and brawl. Gabe does have power and has showed some pretty impressive timing on his counters, but it takes a lot to shut Stipe off. Struve is a big man too and he hits hard, yet it took a number of shots to hurt Miocic and he was still there when the stoppage was called. At Heavyweight anything can happen, but based on Stipe’s power, speed, technique and Gabe’s chin its hard not to see a big shot landing leading to the finish. There isn’t a tonne of massive straight up betting options for this card, so I will need to string 2 and 3 fighter parlays together to make it work and Miocic should be a corner stone, especially if he creeps closer to the $1.50 mark.

Ben Henderson $1.36 vs

I was a little surprised that Benson was such a heavy favourite, but at the same time Josh might have been overvalued based on his win over Nate. Additionally, he most likely got the original shot at the title because of a lack of other options- Henderson lost to Pettis, Diaz KOed, Maynard KOed by Grant, Grant injured, Melendez coming off a loss, enter Josh Thomson. At this current value range I just don’t see Henderson as a valid betting option. At the same time, I don’t see Thomson being worth a look either. He has had trouble with fighters fitting ‘Smooth’s’ profile, he is coming off a longer layoff, and has stated he has had a bad camp in prep for this fight. I will consider a prop bet here to try and increase the value, check the prop section for a post later on.


Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1. Chico Camus $1.55

2. Eddie Wineland $1.35

3. Daron Cruickshank $1.48

4. Stipe Miocic $1.47

5. Ben Henderson $1.36

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6. Donald Cerrone $1.55

7. Walt Harris $1.32

8. Jeremy Stephens $1.87

9. Alex Caceres $3.00

10. Hugo Viana $1.36

11. Mike Rhodes $1.41


Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. Ben Henderson Wins by Unanimous Decision $2.70 Ben should be able to win 3 rounds and will most likely 4. Thomson is tough to finish and Ben isn’t know for his stopping abilities. Value here.
2. Donald Cerrone to Win by Decision $2.55 There is a certain amount of risk here both in the fact that Cerrone could finish or Martins could pull the upset. I’ll meet it in the middle- Martins impresses or survives, but Cerrone still takes it with on the cards.
3. Alex Caceres $3.00 If Pettis puts him away or dishes out a dominant win I will be impressed, but Caceres is being counted out in spot that he shouldn’t be.
4. Jeremy Stephens $1.87 This is Stephens’s spot to make a statement and really put his career in a good place. He shows up.
5. Stipe Miocic to Win by TKO/KO/DQ $1.87 Unless his defensive wrestling doesn’t hold up he will get his opportunities to land a few big shots and see how things shake down. My bet is that GG will be going down.

The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

  • Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
  • I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.

Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. $2.59 If you a) don’t feel comfortable backing Cerrone or b) Martins value gets to or above the $3 mark he might be worth a look. Cerrone is an enigma.
2. Junior Hernandez $3.10 I couldn’t pull the trigger on the Hernandez pick as there was too much pointing to a Viana win, but there are also some issues with Hugo that have me leaving this fight off my bet card. A small bet on Hernandez could be an interesting proposition.
3.
4.
5.

The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.

Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.

Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.

The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.

There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.


Prop Bets-

Walt Harris/

Eddie Wineland/ Y

Chico Camus/ Y

Donald Cerrone to Win by Decision $2.55- There is a possibility that Cerrone finishes Martins, but I think that Adriano is good enough to stay the full 3 rounds. When Cerrone is motivated like he was against Dunham he can do some serious damage, but keep in mind he looked good against Stephens and Noons and still went to the judges.

Stipe Miocic to Win by TKO/KO/DQ $1.87- Stipe has power and GG has chin issues when faced with a striker capable of defending against his grappling attack. If Miocic can land a couple or even one of the shots he connected with on Big Country he will shut Gabe off.

Ben Henderson Wins by Unanimous Decision $2.70- Make a note that this isn’t just a decision win, Benson must take the fight on all 3 judges scorecards. Thomson will be tough to finish, as he has been throughout his career, but I think Ben will be too much for him in the later rounds, especially with his wrestling attack. The fight will be close early, but as Thomson tires from Ben’s rapid pace he will pull away.