UFC FN 41 & TUF Brazil 3 Finale- Post Fight Breakdown & the Bet Pack

mARTIN pEDERSEN

 

Despite not having any high profile fights, Fight Night 41 & the TUF Brazil Fianle were definitely entertaining & worth the watch. I will give a brief recap of all 22 fights. I started out 3-4 in the first 7 fights but finished the day with a 17-5 record including 3 underdog winners.

UFC Fight Night 41

Ruslan Magomedov defeated Viktor Pesta by unanimous decision 29-28 on all cards

This was a fairly close fight with Pesta nearly finishing the fight in the 1st but Magomedov was able to bounce back & outpoint Pesta in the final 2 rounds. The difference in this fight was Magomedov’s spectacular takedown defense & crisp striking. Pretty good fight but both have a lot to improve on in order to be a force in the heavyweight division.

Maximo Blanco defeated Andy Ogle by unanimous decision 29-28 on all cards

Blanco started the fight with a scumbag move & instead of showing sportsmanship by touching gloves, he decided to hit Ogle with a flying kick to the face. Blanco nearly finished the fight with that move & that was also the deciding factor in what turned out to be a very close round and fight. Ogle fought hard but Blanco dominated the final minutes of the 3rd round.

Peter Sobotta defeated Pawal Pawlak by unanimous decision 30-27 on all cards

Sobotta looked a hundred times better in this fight than in his previous 3 fights inside the octagon. Pawlak is tough but had very few moments. Sobotta absolutely dominated this fight from beginning to end.

Iuri Alcantara defeated Vaughan Lee by 1st round TKO

Alcantara came out swinging & knocked out Lee just 25 seconds into the fight. Not much to say about this fight other than Alcantara is proving that he does have more power than people are giving him credit for.

Magnus Cedenblad defeated Krzysztof Jotko by 2nd round guillotine choke submission

Cedenblad controlled the fight throughout & landed the more powerful strikes until he saw his opening to jump up & apply his signature guillotine just seconds before the end of the 2nd round. Very solid performance by Cedenblad.

Nick Hein defeated Drew Dober by unanimous decision 30-27, 29-28, & 29-28

This was a fairly close fight with each man winning one of the first 2 rounds but Hein completely took over & controlled Dober in the 3rd. It wasn’t pretty for Hein but a win is a win.

Niklas Backstrom defeated Tom Niinimaki by 1st rounded inverted rear naked choke submission

Niinimaki was looking great & pushing the pace until Backstrom saw his opening & applied the choke that ended the fight. I definitely want to see more from both of these fighters in their next outtings.

Sean Strickland defeated Luke Barnatt by controversial split decision 29-28, 28-29, & 30-27

I bet Strickland so I was happy to cash the ticket but I will say that Barnatt got robbed. I had all 3 rounds going to Barnatt. None of the rounds were overly lopsided but Barnatt definitely landed more strikes & they appeared to be the harder ones as well. I will take the win with Strickland but he definitely didn’t deserve it.

CB Dollaway defeated Francis Carmont by unanimous decision 30-27, 30-27, & 29-28

CB outclassed Carmont & easily won all 3 rounds. It kind of seemed like Carmont wasn’t into the fight & CB was a little lucky because a better grappler would’ve taken advantage of some of CB’s mistakes on the ground. CB had many chances to move towards a finish but he either played it safe or just couldn’t get it done. I will give him the benefit of the doubt & say that CB was just playing it safe so he could outpoint Carmont.

Gegard Mousasi defeated Mark Munoz by 1st round rear naked choke submission

Mousasi absolutely dominated Munoz from the very beginning & this wasn’t even fun to watch. Great performance by Mousasi but Munoz might want to stop fighting & just become a trainer since he seems to be a good trainer. Munoz just isn’t UFC material but he keeps getting main events & high profile fights.

TUF Brazil 3 Finale

Pedro Munhoz defeated Matt Hobar by 1st round TKO

This was nothing more than a squash match & Munhoz showed us why he was so hyped coming into his UFC debut. Hopefully he will get a better opponent in his next fight but someone that isn’t a title contender just yet. He really got a bad draw in his first UFC fight but he bounced back very nicely in this fight.

Pezao De Lima defeated Richardson Moreira by 1st round TKO

Monstro is known for having the fast starts but Pezao came out swinging & dropped Moreira in the opening seconds. Pezao finished the fight with a few big shots on the ground & the ref stopped the fight just 20 seconds into the contest.

Ricardo Abreu defeated Wagner Silva by 2nd round rear naked choke submission

Wagnao was very game but Demente is just head & shoulders better as he nearly finished the fight in the 1st round. Demente then came out aggressive in the 2nd round & got the submission victory just a minute into the round.

Kevin Souza defeated Mark Eddiva by 2nd round TKO

This was an absolute brawl!! Both men were standing in front of each other & throwing everything they had. Eventually Souza had Eddiva stuck against the cage late in the 2nd round & just started unloading on him until Herb Dean had to step in. Many people might feel this was an early stoppage since Eddiva was still standing but Eddiva took well over 10 strikes without a single answer or really being able to protect himself. I can’t wait to see who both of these men will fight next. Eddiva deserves another fight & I want to see Souza against better competition.

Gasan Umalatov defeated Paulo Thiago by unanimous decision 30-27, 30-27, & 29-28

This fight was all Umalatov from beginning to end. Umalatov was the much fresher fighter for all 3 rounds & really pushed the pace. Umalataov looked far & away better than in his UFC debut but Thiago seems to be fading fast. I know that Thiago is a very popular fighter in Brazil but his career inside the octagon has just about run it’s course. I hope Umalatov gets a better opponent for his next fight because I do think he might have a bright future in the welterweight division.

Elias Silverio defeated Ernest Sanchez by 3rd round rear naked choke submission

This was a great back & forth battle. Chavez definitely came to fight & pushed Silverio to show us a side that we hadn’t seen from him before. Silverio has never had to go through adversity before this fight but he handled it well & got the submission late in the 3rd round.

Rashid Magomedov defeated Rodrigo Damm by unanimous decision 30-27, 30-27, & 29-28

For the first 2 rounds Magomedov completely outclassed Damm in every area. The 3rd round was pretty close but it was an overall terrific performance by Magomedov. I was very impressed with Magomedov’s standup & technicality. I hope Magomedov gets a top 15 opponent for his next fight.

Robbie Peralta defeated Rony Jason by split decision 30-27, 27-30, & 29-28

I definitely think that Peralta won this fight & I don’t know how a judge could give all 3 rounds to Jason but luckily for Peralta, there was only 1 crooked or idiot judge. Peralta did look good but I think Jason basically gave this fight away because he didn’t use his grappling game. I don’t understand why a world class grappler would choose to stand & trade with a brawler. That just shows the fight IQ of Rony Jason. I didn’t really learn much about Peralta from this fight but Jason needs to stick with what he’s good at.

Demian Maia defeated Alexander Yakovlev by unanimous decision 30-27 on all cards

This fight was exactly what it was billed to be. Just an easy squash grappling match for Maia. I give credit to Yakovlev for going the distance but this fight was pretty much all Maia & only exciting if you’re a die hard MMA or grappling fan.

Warlley Alves defeated Marcio Alexandre by 3rd round guillotine submission

Warlley dominated this fight from the very beginning & simply outclassed Alexandre. I hope the UFC gives Warlley a fairly decent opponent in his next bout because this guy has “it” & could rise up the ranks pretty quickly. As for Lyoto, I hope he gets another chance to fight in the UFC but he has a lot that he needs to improve on.

Antonio Carlos defeated Vitor Miranda by unanimous decision 30-27, 30-27, & 29-28

I was extremely impressed with Carlos here because this was the first time he couldn’t get a finish but he still maintained his composure & easily dominated the fight. I can’t wait to see how much Carlos can improve with experience. Miranda will probably get 1 more fight but I think he’s too old to just now come into the UFC & make some noise.

Stipe Miocic defeated Fabio Maldonado by 1st round TKO

This was a 35 second squash match & really did nothing to help Miocic. Maldonado is known for having a great chin in the light heavyweight division but Miocic was just too big & powerful for him. At first I thought Maldonado was playing possum but then Stipe hit him again & Maldonado was out. I hope Miocic gets JDS in his next bout because that’s a fight that I would love to see.


UFC Fight Night 41 & TUF Brazil 3 Finale

Parlay Breakdowns

In an effort to accommodate different styles of MMA Bettors I have compiled 7 different possible betting cards to help you maximize your profit depending on what style of gambler you are and how much money you want to allocate to each card.

Big Money Bettors- for players with a higher bankroll willing to put a lot of cash on the line to turn a profit and build a growing account, focusing mainly on single bets and well placed parlays.

Recreational Bettors- for players that will allocate a decent sized bankroll per event, but would rather spread out their bets and try and turn smaller investments into big returns with larger parlays.

For Fun Bettors- for players that are putting a little bit of cash on the line just to have a good time and have no problem playing a high risk parlay hoping to cash that big payday.

Big Money Bettor, Budget: $550

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: CB Dollaway $2.34
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Price: $2.34 x Bet: $75
Payout: $175.50
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Mark Munoz $3.57
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Price: $3.57 x Bet: $75
Payout: $267.75
 
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Parlay #3
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Selection 1: Drew Dober $2.30
Selection 2: Krzysztof Jotko $2.00
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Price: $4.60 x Bet: $75
Payout: $345
 
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Parlay #4
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Selection 1: Sean Strickland $2.69
Selection 2: Andy Ogle $2.80
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Price: $7.54 x Bet: $75
Payout: $565.50
 
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Parlay #5
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Selection 1: Krzysztof Jotko/ Magnus Cedenblad Total Rounds Over 1.5 $1.66
Selection 2: Robert Peralta/ Rony Jason Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.55
Selection 3: Pedro Munhoz $1.40
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Price: $5.93 x Bet: $75
Payout: $444.75
 
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Parlay #6
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Selection 1: CB Dollaway $2.34
Selection 2: Tom Niinimaki $1.41
Selection 3: Stipe Miocic to Win by TKO/KO/DQ $1.81
Selection 4: Peter Sobotta $2.70
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Price: $15.85 x Bet: $75
Payout: $1188.75
 
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Parlay #7- Yup.
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Selection 1: Krzysztof Jotko/ Magnus Cedenblad Total Rounds Over 1.5 $1.66
Selection 2: Mark Munoz $3.57
Selection 3: Stipe Miocic to Win by TKO/KO/DQ $1.81
Selection 4: Sean Strickland $2.69
Selection 5: Drew Dober $2.30
===================================================
Price: $66.37 x Bet: $100
Payout: $6637

Recreational Bettor, Budget: $200

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Parlay #1
===================================================
Selection 1: Krzysztof Jotko/ Magnus Cedenblad Total Rounds Over 1.5 $1.66
Selection 2: Stipe Miocic to Win by TKO/KO/DQ $1.81
Selection 3: Drew Dober $2.30
===================================================
Price: $6.93 x Bet: $75
Payout: $519.75
 
Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Mark Munoz $3.57
Selection 2: CB Dollaway $2.34
===================================================
Price: $8.36 x Bet: $50
Payout: $418
 
Parlay #3
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Selection 1: Iuri Alcantara/ Vaughan Lee Total Rounds Under 2.5 $1.80
Selection 2: Andy Ogle $2.80
Selection 3: Tom Niinimaki $1.41
===================================================
Price: $7.11 x Bet: $50
Payout: $355.75
 
Parlay #4
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Selection 1: Sean Strickland $2.69
Selection 2: Krzysztof Jotko $2.00
Selection 3: Rashid Magomedov $1.34
Selection 4: Pedro Munhoz $1.40
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Price: $10.10 x Bet: $25
Payout: $252.50
 

For Fun Bettor, Budget: $50

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Mark Munoz $3.57
Selection 2: Krzysztof Jotko $2.00
Selection 3: Drew Dober $2.30
===================================================
Price: $16.43 x Bet:
Payout: $410.75
 

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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: CB Dollaway $2.34
Selection 2: Sean Strickland $2.69
Selection 3: Stipe Miocic to Win by TKO/KO/DQ $1.81
Selection 4: Andy Ogle $2.80
===================================================
Price: $31.91 x Bet: $25
Payout: $797.75
 

Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns

Viktor Pesta $2.89 vs Ruslan Magomedov $1.49

In the limited amount of time I was able to devote to this fight I simply wasn’t impressed with Pesta and feel he is quite vulnerable if he can’t get his opponent out of there in the first round. That being said, this is Heavyweight and with 2 guys debuting the possibilities are far more wide open. I think Ruslan is the better fighter and should take this but considering we are staring at a perfect scenario for an EPU which reared its ugly head last show I will pass on this one. The under is a possibility, but with so many places to invest it will have to pay well.

Andy Ogle $2.80 vs Maximo Blanco $1.53

I have backed Blanco in the past and he routinely does dumb things that make me mad. I had him against Brimage and he laid an egg and I had him against Corassani and he got DQ. The guy’s head is just not there. He is exciting and aggressive, but that gets him in trouble too. I had Arantes and he took home the win as the dog and I’m on Ogle here. I wish Andy was more dynamic, but he is durable and knows how to survive. If he can survive the early onslaught I see him turning this fight in his favour late in round 1 with his toughness and just outworking Maxi. I will consider using Ogle in a parlay, but won’t be shocked if I just throw him down as a straight up bet.

Pawel Pawlak $1.54 vs Peter Sobotta $2.70

I don’t have a great feel for this fight. Pawlak didn’t show me a lot, but I could totally see him as the type that turns into a killer under the UFC lights. That is a really hard thing to predict. Sobotta has experience, not winning experience, but experience nonetheless. He has a good kicking arsenal and grapple. Additionally, Pawel doesn’t appear to possess the qualities that have given the German trouble in the past- pressure striking and good wrestling. Sobotta is coming off a lengthy layoff, but he has value and is probably being undervalued based on the 0-3 UFC record resonating with the public and Pawlak carrying an undefeated record. I’ll take Sobotta, but I won’t go over the top with my investment based simply on uncertainty. If this event were in North American I doubt either man would be getting the call to fight.

Iuri Alcantara $1.28 vs Vaughan Lee $4.19

I don’t know if Alcantara will ever work himself into contention, but considering what just happened at the top of this division who am I to speculate. What I do know is that he is handful for 90% of the division and in this case Lee doesn’t have big enough hands to haul the load. Lee is outmatched everywhere he is good and unless Iuri gasses due to the trip across the big water, this is going bad for the Brit. But there is no value in the straight up bet, if anything I will be leaning towards a prop play. Next.

Krzysztof Jotko $2.00 vs Magnus Cedenblad $1.83

I’m not a big fan of the Swede. I think he fades in tough situations and he is very hittable- in combination those are not good things. Jotko is a grinder and out-ground (you know what I mean) a excellent grinder in his debut. Grind, grind, grind. That is what he does, that is what I expect him to do here. Cedenblad appears to get pretty worked up and overextends himself when doing so. Jotko should be able to remain patient, avoid making mistakes and take advantage of the opportunities that he is presented with. It won’t be pretty, but ill toss him down in my parlays at this price.

Drew Dober $2.30 vs Nick Hein $1.72

I am a little surprised that Dober is the dog here. He is the more complete fighter with better experience. Hein will be at home, but I see him as being too one dimensional. Ill take Dober here as the better striker and with enough of a submission game to make the ground a foreboding place and take Hein’s Judo out of play. With all of the upset candidates on this card, Dober has quickly become a front runner to be big play and unless something changes as I work my way through the next few fights he will most likely get the call.

Tom Niinimaki $1.41 vs Nicklas Backstrom $3.18

I don’t think Niinimaki is getting enough credit for what he did in his debut. He willingness engaged Rani Yahya on the floor and left the cage with a win. Not too shabby in this guys opinion. Backstrom is taking this fight on short notice, but is a well rounded fighter- albeit inexperienced. I am tempted to take the Fin here as part of a parlay based solely on the x-factors that I mentioned in my breakdown. Add in what he is capable of doing in the cage and I will throw him into a parlay or 2, but remember there are a tonne of option this weekend so some restraint please.

Sean Strickland $2.69 vs Luke Barnatt $1.56

Barnatt has quietly started his UFC career with 3 straight wins and is doing far more then most people felt he was capable of. Strickland looked fantastic in his debut and out grappled a known grappler and finished him in one. The one drawback for the big man is his lack of speed and while that really hasn’t cost him up until this point, I think that changes here. Strickland is a capable striker, but ever more effective on the ground. If the Brit gets put on his back I can see him struggling tremendously with Strickland’s very active top game. I am looking at a strong single play here on the American and will even consider working him into my parlays.

Francis Carmont $1.68 CB Dollaway $2.34

I am usually a staunch supporter of Carmont, but I just see this as being a bad match-up for him. Dollaway is a solid wrestling and is far more aggressive striker, which should gain him some serious points with the judges. CB likes to take chances, which could lead to some bad breaks, but so far he has gotten away with them. Overall, Dollaway has fought very well of late and should be riding a 4 fight winning streak, while Carmont has snuck out a few wins that were quite questionable. In the end, I like CB here to simply out work his opponent and take a decision win home with him. I will be taking a shot on CB as a single bet here and may consider a prop play as well.

Mark Munoz $3.57 vs Gergard Mousasi $1.37

Mark Munoz recently was quoted in an interview saying that he had no intention of standing with Mousasi. Thank you, but usually when a wrestler or known grappler says they DO intend to strike they shoot within the first 30 seconds. Either way, Munoz is making no bones about his route to victory and I am grateful. Mark is a good wrestler and he needs to put Mousasi on his back early and often. Even if he can do it consistently, there is always going to be the threat of knockout until the final bell rings. I like the way Munoz remains active on top and that should help him to hold the position and keep Gegard under pressure. It could also take some of the gas out of Mousasi’s tank. There is a tonne of value here and I’ll be hitting this as a single play for sure.

Matt Hobar $3.21 vs Pedro Munhoz $1.40

Alright folks thanks for reading, that’s wrap…aw crap. Thanks Dana. I do enjoy MMA but I just finished reading an article about Dana’s future plans to do more 2 event days, maybe 3, and potentially even 4. I wouldn’t mind a 2 card day if it was proceeded by a break. Regardless. Munhoz is a solid prospect and Hobar is far more his level then Assuncao is. I think Munhoz takes it to him and takes him. I will consider playing Munhoz as part of a parlay and really hopes he holds his current price.

Kevin Souza $1.30 vs Mark Eddiva $3.70

I was quite impressed with what Eddiva brought in his last fight and Souza has at least questionable enough TDD to make him completely undesirable at this price. With so much to write I will end it here, next.

Paulo Thiago $1.48 vs Gasan Umalatov $2.82

I have Thiago winning this bout, but he hasn’t looked good enough lately to be too excited about a bet at this price- especially with so many options. For diversification purposes he may find him way into one parlay but that is it.

Elias Silverio $1.24 vs Ernest Chavez $4.30

I really like Silverio here, but he doesn’t pay much. Simply put the Brazilian is a bad matchup for Chavez pretty much anywhere this fight goes. If he was around the $1.35 mark I would be hammering him in my parlays, but at this price it is mostly uninviting despite my confidence.

Rodrigo Damm $3.4o vs Rashid Magomedov $1.34

It would appear that I am looking for the first card to be full of upsets (6, possibly 7) and the second to be dominated by the favourites (0 upsets picks). I have a pretty good handle on Damm, or least I have up until this point. I played against him versus Carvahlo, took him at almost even odds vs Hirota, and then called the upset over Jorge. Hopefully that continues. I think Magomedov is a bad matchup for him. He has excellent counter striking and power. I simply do not see Damm winning this fight without drastically altering his gameplan and taking it to the floor. Even then, it will be tough. I like Magomedov as an add-on pay for a parlay, maybe with 2 other well paying picks.

Robert Peralta $3.30 vs Rony Jason $1.38

Jason should win this fight, but Peralta’s power is a major concern. He can land at any point and change the complexion of a fight. At the same time, we saw for 2 rounds versus Payan and 3 rounds vs Corassani that if he doesn’t land there are some major issues. My money would be on him not landing and Jason exploiting his defensive grappling, but I would rather play the prop bet here. I need to check the price, but it seems like the way to go.

Demian Maia $1.23 vs Alexander Yakovlev $4.60

Yeah, no. Maia should win this, but his cardio is a major concern. It tends to be very hot in Brazil arenas and Maia is the type of guy that could gas almost to the point of non-functioning after just a round. In fact the more and more I think about it Yakovlev might be worth a shot simply on Maia’s cardio alone. I will either pass on this one or take a small bet on the Russian.

Fabio Maldonado $5.25 vs Stipe Miocic $1.21

Yeah I really doubt that Maldonado is going to be able to stick around long enough for Stipe to gas out. It could happen, remember its a potentially hot arena, but it isn’t likely. Stipe takes him down, shows his size and power is too much for him and GnPs his way to a ref stoppage. I like the under as the only real option, depending on the round and value- check the prop section for the final word.

I am not doing betting breakdowns for several of the TUF fiughts as I simply don’t have time to do proper research.


Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1. Stipe Miocic $1.21

2. Iuri Alcantara $1.28

3. Elias Silverio $1.24

4. Rashid Magomedov $1.34

5. Pedro Munhoz $1.40

====================

6. Tom Niinimaki $1.41

7. Kevin Souza $1.30

8. Rony Jason $1.38

9. Ruslan Magomedov $1.49

10. CB Dollaway $2.34

11. Drew Dober $2.30

12. Demian Maia $1.23

13. Krzysztof Jotko $2.00

14. Andy Ogle $2.80

15. Sean Strickland $2.69

16. Paulo Thiago $1.48

17. Peter Sobotta $2.70

18. Mark Munoz $3.57


Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. CB Dollaway $2.34 I simply have not been impressed by Carmont of late, while CB has shown massive strides in recent appearances and is headed in the fight direction. Ride the momentum.
2. Drew Dober $2.30 Hein is simply to weak on the feet to be this big of a favourite. He is also cutting to 155 for the first time which is another concern in addition to the debut factor.
3. Andy Ogle $2.80 Maxi is too unpredictable. If he fails to pull the trigger (Brimage) he will get outworked. He struggles to main a consistent pace (Arantes) he will get outworked. Or he could get himself DQed, don’t laugh it could happen.
4. Sean Strickland $2.69 This kid has a tonne of potential and should use his speed to his advantage against a much slower opponent. Speed kills.
5. Mark Munoz $3.57 The quality of opponent that Mark is facing drops him down a few pegs. But he has the wrestling to take this one home in what I hope is another upset filled night. Follow by a second card dominated by the favourites.

The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

  • Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
  • I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.

Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. Alexander Yakovlev $4.60 I know Maia is from Brazil, but if the heat gets to him (if it is hot in the arena, it might not be) then he could very well gas out after a single frame. The door at this point swings wide open for the russia.
2. Gasan Umalatov $2.82 See above, insert appropriate names and add that Thiago hasn’t looked that good of late.
3.
4.
5.

The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.

Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.

Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.

The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.

There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.


Prop Bets-

Viktor Pesta/ Ruslan Magomedov Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.10- It is always worth a shot to take Heavies under the total, especially when you can get it at a price above $2.oo. Both men can finish and they will be looking to impress in their first appearances. Play the Under.

Iuri Alcantara/ Vaughan Lee Total Rounds Under 2.5 $1.80- Either in the first or second frame Alcantara will grab Lee’s neck or arm and that will be all she wrote. Too good a submission fighter against a guy willing to engage, despite the fact that it has cost him before.

Krzysztof Jotko/ Magnus Cedenblad Total Rounds Over 1.5 $1.66- I really like this bet. Both guys have finishing skills based on the numbers, but Jotko is a grinder at heart and I expect to see that in full effect here. I would even take the over 2.5, especially if the value increases. Hit this one hard.

Rodrigo Damm/ Rashid Magomedov Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.55- Damm has been knocked out 3 times, all at Lightweight and Magomedov was ghosting guys at 170 pounds. Damm stands and trade, Damm drops and fades. Sounded better in my head. Play the Under.

Robert Peralta/ Rony Jason Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.55- Both guys have the ability to stop this one early. Peralta with his power and Jason with his submissions and power. There is a real chance it goes over the total, but at this price with their capabilities it is worth the risk.

Stipe Miocic to Win by TKO/KO/DQ $1.81- I was going to play the Under, but Fabio is such a tough dude that I could see him surviving long enough to break that bet. Instead, I’ll take the knockout play and hope that Fabio doesn’t tap to strikes or Stipe decides to look for a submission once he hurts him. Gosh I keep talking like this is a forgone conclusion, you know what happens when that starts to get tossed around. Still play Stipe by knockout.