UFC FN 35: Rockhold vs. Philippou: Results & Bet Pack

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Prelims

170lbs- Charlie Brenneman (19-5-0) vs Beneil Dariush (6-0-0)

Brenneman came out and pressured Dariush. Charlie got him in the clinch and landed some good uppercuts. Dariush pushed off and landed a huge left hook that dropped Brenneman. He then took his back, locked in the body triangle and executed a perfect rear naked choke finish. Great debut for Dariush.

155lbs- Vinc Pichel (7-1-0) vs Garrett Whiteley (7-1-0)

Pichel took Whiteley down in the 1st but was reversed. He showed great submission defense as Garrett tried to get somewhat of an anaconda choke. Pichel got up and executed a big takedown as the round ended. Pichel came out in the 2nd with intentions to hurt Whiteley. He took Garrett down again and landed some big strikes. The 3rd round was the same story and Vinc Pichel won a great fight by decision.

125lbs- Alptekin Ozkilic (9-1-0) vs Louis Smolka (6-0-0)

Smolka took complete control of this fight. He rocked Ozkilic plenty of times in this bout, leaving Ozkilic very tired and weak. Smolka took advantage of that and used his reach to pick apart him on the feet and on the ground. He was able to defend his takedowns as well and took a big win.

185lbs- Trevor Smith (10-4-0) vs Brian Houston (4-1-0)

Each fighter got a takedown on each other in the first. Smith showed better grappling by even landing a second one at the end of the 1st. The 2nd round was pretty much a stalemate. Smith came out in the 3rd with some nice jabs the connected with Houston, even though Smith had a big cut on his forehead. Smith showed the experience in this one and picked up a split decision.

155lbs- Isaac Vallie-Flagg (14-3-1) vs Elias Silverio (9-0-0)

Silverio came out quick with some heavy strikes, dropping Flagg in the 1st round. Throughout the whole fight, he picked apart Vallie-Flagg with his powerful strikes and took his back on a couple occasions. Despite landing an illegal knee, he took a well-earned decision win.

155lbs- Ramsey Nijem (7-4-0) vs Justin Edwards (8-3-0)

This was a crazy fight. Both came out guns blazing and very aggressive. Edwards landed a huge shot plus a head kick that rocked Nijem. Edwards pushed forward and also got caught. After a while, the shots came in Nijem’s favor in the 2nd. He landed heavy hits and took Justin’s back. He also showed great guillotine defense in the 3rd and that lead to ground domination for the rest of the fight and Nijem picked up the W.

Main Card

145lbs- Cole Miller (20-8-0) vs Sam Sicilia (12-3-0)

The 1st round was pretty calm but Sicilia did land some good strikes. Miller came out in the 2nd and rocked Sicilia. He took him down and tried for a guillotine but switched to the back and locked in the rear naked choke and picked up the victory. Great performance by Cole Miller.

125lbs- John Moraga (13-2-0) vs Dustin Ortiz (12-2-0)

This was a pretty close fight. Ortiz kept Moraga down in the 1st and controlled him. Moraga came out in the second with some leg kicks followed by some heavy shots that seemed to rock Ortiz but he recovered. Moraga tried for a front choke in the 3rd off of a sprawl but was taken down by Ortiz again. I had Dustin Ortiz winning 29-28 but Moraga picked the win up by a split decision.

185lbs- Yoel Romero (6-1-0) vs Derek Brunson (11-2-0)

Romero came out with a flying knee early, wanting to showcase his skills. Brunson showed a great chin and took Romero down. Brunson landed a huge head kick that rocked Yoel but he stayed in the battle. Brunson mainly controlled Romero in the 2nd with some stiff striking. In the 3rd round, Yoel knew he had to go for broke. He landed a big right hand that shook Brunson and continued with a flurry that hand Brunson down. Romero was constantly landed shots from the back then turned over and finished Derek Brunson with some heavy body strikes. Great comeback win for Yoel Romero

135lbs- TJ Dillashaw (8-2-0) vs Mike Easton (13-3-0)

This fight was a complete dominance by TJ Dilliashaw. He came out and executed a perfect game plan. His striking looked so much better than it already was. He landed heavy hooks, knees and head kicks but Easton wouldn’t go down. TJ outwrestled Easton as well, just a complete dominance in all aspects that lead to a unanimous decision win. Dillashaw looked scary, a huge statement to the 135lb division.

185lbs- Lorenz Larkin (14-1-1) vs Brad Tavares (11-1-0)

This fight turned out exactly how I thought it would. Tavares kept his distance and took control of Larkin on the fight and against the cage. He came out with some early combos and sweet body/leg kicks. He didn’t show much pain to the leg kicks of Larkin either. Larkin did have some counters that connected with Tavares but it wasn’t enough to finish him. He also had a high elbow guillotine locked in, but the grappling experience of Tavares was too strong. He almost finished Tavares with some Travis Browne like elbows against the cage, but Tavares moved out and rode out the win, and now he should be in the top 15. Awesome win for Brad Tavares and a big statement, he beat one of the best in the division here.

185lbs- Luke Rockhold (10-2-0) vs Costantinos Philippou (12-3-1)

Not much to say about this one but….Luke Rockhold has power in those legs! The first shot Luke Rockhold landed was a right hook that rocked Costa. Luke pressured him against the cage and landed a body kick that made him cringe a bit. He landed a second one and that was it. Costa curled over in pain, and Luke Rockhold gets his first win in the UFC by TKO.

 Overall I went 9-3. The event was great tonight!

 

UFC Fight Night 35

Parlay Breakdowns

In an effort to accommodate different styles of MMA Bettors I have compiled 7 different possible betting cards to help you maximize your profit depending on what style of gambler you are and how much money you want to allocate to each card.

Big Money Bettors- for players with a higher bankroll willing to put a lot of cash on the line to turn a profit and build a growing account, focusing mainly on single bets and well placed parlays.

Recreational Bettors- for players that will allocate a decent sized bankroll per event, but would rather spread out their bets and try and turn smaller investments into big returns with larger parlays.

For Fun Bettors- for players that are putting a little bit of cash on the line just to have a good time and have no problem playing a high risk parlay hoping to cash that big payday.

Big Money Bettor, Budget: $500

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Elias Silverio $2.05
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Price: $2.05 x Bet: $150
Payout: $307.50
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Trevor Smith $1.70
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Price: $1.70 x Bet: $125
Payout: $212.50
 
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Parlay #3
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Selection 1:
Selection 2: Romero/ Brunson Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.11
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Price: $5.17 x Bet: $100
Payout: $517
 
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Parlay #4
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Selection 1: Charlie Brenneman $1.60
Selection 2: Cole Miller $1.59
Selection 3: Lorenz Larkin $1.47
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Price: $3.74 x Bet:$ $75
Payout: $280.50
 
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Parlay #5
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Selection 1: Ramsey Nijem $1.70
Selection 2: Yoel Romero $1.45
Selection 3: Philippou/ Rockhold Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.61
Selection 4: Easton/ Dillashaw Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.61
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Price: $6.39 $ x Bet: $50
Payout: $319.50
 

Recreational Bettor, Budget: $200

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Philippou/ Rockhold Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.61
Selection 2: Easton/ Dillashaw Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.61
Selection 3: Lorenz Larkin $1.47
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Price: $3.81 x Bet: $50
Payout: $190.52
 
Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Elias Silverio $2.05
Selection 2: Romero/ Brunson Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.11
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Price: $4.33 x Bet: $50
Payout: $216.28
 
Parlay #3
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Selection 1: Trevor Smith $1.70
Selection 2:
Selection 3: Cole Miller $1.59
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Price: $6.62 x Bet: $50
Payout: $331
 
Parlay #4
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Selection 1: Ramsey Nijem $1.70
Selection 2: Moraga/ Ortiz Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.56
Selection 3: Silverio/ Vallie-Flagg Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.56
Selection 4: Yoel Romero $1.45
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Price: $6.00 x Bet: $50
Payout: $300

For Fun Bettor, Budget: $50

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Yoel Romero $1.45
Selection 2: Lorenz Larkin $1.47
Selection 3: Philippou/ Rockhold Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.61
Selection 4: Silverio/ Vallie-Flagg Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.56
Selection 5: Easton/ Dillashaw Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.61
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Price: $8.62 x Bet: $25
Payout: $215,50
 

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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Trevor Smith $1.70
Selection 2: Elias Silverio $2.05
Selection 3: Charlie Brenneman $1.60
Selection 4: Cole Miller $1.59
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Price: $8.87 x Bet:$25
Payout: $221.75
 
 

Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns

Vinc Pichel $1.57 vs

I haven’t been that impressed with Pichel. His debut fight aside, on the show I felt he was gifted a win over Chris Saunders that he either lost or at the very least should have gone to a third round. His striking is predictable and I expect that Whiteley will catch on to it and either land something big or change levels for a TD. Whiteley didn’t look great in his debut either but that was a difficult spot for him. I think that this is a place where the books are banking on the slightly better known fighter (TUF exposure) to draw action from the public and they have set the line accordingly. Pichel has done nothing to earn a position as a favourite like this and considering his recent inactivity that is another massive knock against him. This fight falls into my opening fight betting line theory and I plan to exploit it. I wouldn’t suggest going all in on Whitely but a nice mid-range bet would be just what the doctor ordered.

Charlie Brenneman $1.64 vs

Brenneman is getting a solid number here, but will most likely go down closer to the fight so buy early. I always felt he looked undersized compared to Rumble (who didn’t), but against Erick Silva too. Either way cutting to 155 is a good move and the nice thing about this is that he has had 4 test runs already, one going the distance, to master the drop. Dariush is relatively inexperienced and for the most part untested. He has decent submission skills, but I see him struggling to mount much offense off his back with the top game of Brenneman. If Charlie could smother Ninja Roberts, he can do it here too. I have been known to only make single bets on upset picks or close to even favourites, but I have certainly considering one here. I think Charlie offers a decent number and should either be played alone or potentially teamed with another mid-range fav to boost his digits up a bit.

Alptekin Ozkilic $1.38 vs

Alp is on a quick turn around after his debut, which can be good and it can be bad. He is coming off a win against a very good submission fighter, better then the one he is facing here, but I am still a little leery. Smolka is lengthy and if he can tie Ozkilic up early he could sink something in while they are still dry. He is a relentless submission “go getter” and just keeps pushing the issue. For the most part I see Alp being able to defend and win based on maintaining the better position, but at this low a number with 2 relatively unknown commodities this is a fight better left off your big plays.

Trevor Smith $1.70 vs

Do you know what we can take from Houston’s debut? Not much of anything. It was too short and we saw next to nothing of him. Interestingly enough most of his fights have been like that with him on the right side of the ‘W’. For Smith, his striking isn’t great but he showed he can scrap and land some decent shots in the Herman fight. More importantly, he is the vastly superior grappler and should be able to exploit that fact. He gave Tim Kennedy some early trouble and some of his lesser known fight performances where decent. I think he either subs Houston early or breaks him on the mat and subs or TKOs him late. He needs to be wary on that opening few minutes when Brian is dangerous though. I think Smith should be a mid-sized single bet, but I will also consider playing him in a parlay as well . Possibly teaming him with Brenneman, Cole Miller, or even Yoel Romero.

Isaac Vallie-Flagg $1.77 vs

The odds for this fight are erratic, with both men playing the role of the favourite. I like Silverio’s more refined striking and good-enough ground game to exploit IVF’s defensive lapse just enough to steal this fight. It will be close and most likely will go the distance. IVF just keeps coming forward and if Elias can’t stop that then he could struggle to score, but I think he will land some big kicks and keep IVF just out of range. If he gets on top Vallie-Flagg hasn’t show me much off his back and some significant top control time could seal him the round or even the fight. I think that Silverio is a straight bet candidate and much like other ones on this card a mid-range bet is the best option. I will also consider him for a 2 fighter parlay bet as well, check the parlay section for the final call on who his dance partner is.

Ramsey Nijem $1.70 vs Justin Edwards $2.28

I was close to pulling the trigger on Edwards here, but I think I was overvaluing his capabilities. I don’t see him having the striking skills to capitalize on Ramsey’s porous defense and unless he catches a sub, early, it most likely won’t happen. I am not saying that it can’t happen, I am saying that under most scenarios that it won’t. Then again, considering they have both recently been part of very early submission finishes, who knows. I think Ramsey gets the majority of the top position play and grinds out a win. For betting, there isn’t a lot of confidence floating out there for Nijem so wait a bit and see if that is reflected in the line movement. I think he would be worth a parlay play with another decent paying fighter, maybe the aforementioned Silverio or Trevor Smith to get the best bang for your buck.

John Moraga $1.36 vs

Ortiz rallied back for a pretty decent win in his debut, but his competition was a little bit questionable. Moraga has picked up a couple of decent wins in his UFC run and then found out he wasn’t championship material, which is nothing to be ashamed of. This fight is a wait and see situation as far as Moraga is concerned. How does he respond after his title fight loss? Some guys get better and for other it is all down hill from there. Moraga has minimal value and the only way I would consider using him as an add-on to a mid-range fav to bump him up over $2.00. The other option is just let this one go and enjoy a decent Flyweight bout.

Cole Miller $1.59 vs

I went back and forth on this one. I felt that Sicilia’s power would play a major role, especially if he can get on the inside and blast. Then I thought, what if Cole gets him down, he should be able to tie him up and either sub him or dominate the fight on the mat. I have been impressed with Cole’s improved ranged striking and he should be on a 3 fight winning streak if not for some bad luck versus ManGam. Sicilia’s wins have come against 2 guys with questionable chins and while Miller has been stopped, its only been a couple of times versus some heavy hitters at LW. I think Miller should be able to get the better of the striking and score some crucial points on the mat. For Miller, he doesn’t provide an overwhelming return, but its far from useless. I would think he makes a good parlay combo option with Nijem, Brenneman, or Smith.

Yoel Romero $1.45 vs

I am pretty confident that Romero takes this fight. His striking style will give Brunson fits both offensively and defensively, and Derek isn’t a strong knuckle chucker to start with. I’ll keep this short, of all the heavier favs I would feel most comfortable tossing Romero down as my parlay ‘pumper’. Combine him with any betting option on the card to push the value up a little. Also if a prop comes up as an option for this fight I will post it in the prop section.

TJ Dillashaw $1.38 vs M

Nope! These odds are way off. This fight should be much closer then they are. I have no interest taking Dillashaw at his number, in fact I almost took Easton and still might based solely on value. Of all the fighters I picked against, I feel that Easton has a great chance to take this fight and shouldn’t be this big of a dog. Even if TJ wins, it will be much closer then what these odds are telling us. No Play for me.

Lorenz Larkin $1.47 vs

I like Larkin here, I think he has the better skillset on both sides of the spectrum (O & D) and should take this fight. It won’t be as easy as his last win, but I still think he gets it done under most scenarios. Tavares is a solid prospect, but he has won some close striking battles against lesser strikers who were primarily grappling based. When he did beat a good striker in Tom Watson, he had to take the fight to the mat as much as possible to help him secure it. Larkin has far better TDD. For my money Larkin has some half decent parlay potential here and I would consider playing him along with Romero and maybe a Trevor Smith to try a decent paying 3 fighter parlay.

Luke Rockhold $1.27 vs

When Rockhold wins a fight in the UFC then I will consider playing him as the favourite, but even at this pay range he is a pass for me. I might consider playing him by decision once the props are posted, but other then that I will just enjoy this fight for what it is- a good middleweight scrap with top 10 implications.


Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1. Yoel Romero $1.45

2. Luke Rockhold $1.27

3. Lorenz Larkin $1.47

4. Alptekin Ozkilic $1.38

5. Trevor Smith $1.70

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6. Charlie Brenneman $1.60

7. John Moraga $1.36

8. Cole Miller $1.59

9. Elias Silverio $2.05

10. Ramsey Nijem $1.70

11. TJ Dillashaw $1.38

12.


Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. Elias Silverio $2.05 This number is moving up on some sites and down on others, make sure you get it on the way up.
2. Romero/ Brunson Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.11 I have been very impressed with the improvements in Romero’s striking. Once he gets a few more fighters under his belt he has the ability to be a real threat.
3. $2.45 Pichel hasn’t done enough for me to warrant a spot as a big fav. Whiteley will surprise.
4. Trevor Smith $1.70 Smith is a pretty tough customer and should be able to overcome his less then experienced opponent.
5. Houston/ Smith Total Rounds Over 1.5 $1.87 While I don’t think Houston wins, I think he can hang around and get this fight into the second half. Look for an early feeling out process as he comes out a little cautious to avoid another early defeat.

The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

  • Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
  • I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.

Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. Mike Easton $3.15 There is no reason that he should be this big of a dog. This was a hard fight to predict and will be close value bet.
2. $3.46 Moraga should take this, but Ortiz is feisty and has the ability to make it close and potentially steal it if the former challenger has an off night.
3.
4.
5.

The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.

Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.

Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.

The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.

There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.


Prop Bets-

John Moraga/ Dustin Ortiz Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.56 Both guys have finishing capabilities, but taking a look at how they matchup, there respective defensive skills should be good enough to take this fight to the scorecards.

Elias Silverio/ Isaac Vallie-Flagg Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.56- These two have gone the distance a combined 12 times (6 each) and this should be a tight fight that once again reaches the judges.

Brian Houston/ Trevor Smith Total Rounds Over 1.5 $1.87- There is a real possibility that this bout goes over the designated limit, but it could also end quickly. Houston is a quick finisher and Smith certainly has the ability to end fights as well. I’m baking on Smith getting the fight to the mat, breaking down his opponent in the first and finishing it sometime late in the second or sometime in the third.

Yoel Romero/ Derek Brunson Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.11- I see Romero being able to exploit Brunson’s defensive liabilities and with his powerful, but unorthodox style that leads him to the finish, inside the first 7.5 minutes.

Mike Easton/ TJ Dillashaw Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.61- Both have fight ending power, but I see them being equally on point and taking this fight the distance.

Costa Philippou/ Luke Rockhold Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.61- Unless someone makes a significant mistake, this fight won’t be ending early. Costa is good enough to defend on the mat and I just don’t see either ending it on the feet. Yes Costa has power, and so does Rockhold but with their defensive work they should be able to keep the damage to a minimum.