UFC FN 33: Hunt vs. Bigfoot – Review and Bet Pack

 

Scott Johnson

UFC Fight Night looked like a decent card on paper but it produced one of the best Heavyweight tilts in recent memory. Mark Hunt and Antonio ‘Bigfoot’ Silva battled to a majority draw. With two judges ruling the contest even at the end of 5 rounds and the third giving it to the Mark Hunt 48-47, neither man walks away a loser.

The outcome of the fight does justice to the effort put forth by both men, as they both raised their stalk within the division. The question is; where do they go from here? There is the potential for a rematch down the line if the UFC would like to use the momentum of this contest to build a card around. The other options is to allow them to go their separate ways, pick up a few more wins and then eventually pair them together again.

In the co-main event Shogun Rua appeared to at least temporarily right the ship with a first round knockout of the hard hitting and subsequently hard falling James Te-Huna. Before we anoint Rua as the next big thing (again), keep in mind this was the typical Shogun win. He looks great in fights that end quickly (Machida, Griffing 2, Liddell, and now Te Huna), but until I see the former Champion start to string together a few wins I won’t by into the hype. Te-Huna’s momentum has taken a serious hit with back to back defeats. He will most likely head back down the ladder and attempt to rebuild himself at the expense of some mid level Light Heavyweight talent.

Quick Hits

-Bader put a one sided beating on Perosh, but it has to be a little bit concerning that he was unable to put him away or a testament to the toughness of the Aussie.

-the Play by Play team needs to do their research. Dylan Andrews had a similar injury in his last fight, but for some reason Ken Flo and Co. were unable to recognize the injury until the Doc identified it. The outcome was unfortunate because that had that makings of a fun fight. Andrews had better get his shoulder looked at because it will spell the end to abrupt end to his UFC career if it pops again.

-Barry has said he can’t make 205, which might be the case, but he needs to give it one more try or consider another career choice because Sao Palelei made him look small and irrelevant. Barry is a great guy and has a lot of talent, but his defensive issues seem too significant for him to continue competing at his level. On a side not, his post fight face plant was unfortunate and unnecessary. Someone clearly was not doing their job.

-Julie Kedzie called an end to her career after a close split decision defeat. Kedzie has been a long standing competitor for WMMA and I think her work with Invicta in the booth should warrant her a shot along side Chael, Rashad, and the rest of the panel.

-Phan versus Mizugaki was a great bout and probably a fight of the night winner on most cards. Mizugaki keeps rising, a bout with Raphael Assuncao would be appropriate.

-Nick Ring had the tables turned on him after stealing some a few controversial decisions earlier in his UFC career. He won round 1 and did the most significant damage in round 2, unfortunately the judges felt Magalhaes’s positional control at the end of the second was enough to steal the round. Ring’s cardio is a mess.

-controversial finish or not, Justin Scoggins got his UFC career off to a good start.

-Jotko vs Santos was what I expected it to be. Anyone that was hoping for a barn burner and then let down when it wasn’t needs to do a little more pre-fight research.

-Garcia looked impressive in his debut and should look to try and get another fight as soon as possible considering he took next to no damage in his debut.

-The bet packs were once again a let down and with  5-5-1 record, my slump endures. After 3 straight below .500 prediction records I have gone 6-6-0, 6-4, and now 5-5-1 so I could say I have slightly turned the corner, but until I start consistently hitting 7, 8, and 9 or more wins a night I won’t be satisfied. The night started off well with a 4-1 record, with a controversial defeat, but unfortunately my undoing was the main card.


UFC Fight Night 33

Parlay Breakdowns

Big Money Bettor, Budget: $500

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Mark Hunt $2.30- PUSH
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Price: $2.30 x Bet: $80
Payout: $184
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: James Te-Huna $1.84
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Price: $1.84 x Bet: $80
Payout: $147.20
 
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Parlay #3
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Selection 1: Krzysztof Jotko $2.78
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Price: $2.78 x Bet: $50
Payout: $139
 
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Parlay #4
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Selection 1: Dylan Andrews $1.71
Selection 2: Nick Ring $1.46
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Price: $2.50 x Bet: $75
Payout: $187.50
 
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Parlay #5
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Selection 1: Pat Barry $1.69
Selection 2: Julie Kedzie $1.50
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Price: $2.54 x Bet: $75
Payout: $190.50
 
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Parlay #6
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Selection 1: Justin Scoogins $1.43
Selection 2: Takeya Mizugaki $1.37
Selection 3: Nick Ring $1.46
Selection 4: Julie Kedzie $1.50
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Price: $4.29 x Bet: $100
Payout: $429
 
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Parlay #7
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Selection 1: Mark Hunt $2.30
Selection 2: James Te-Huna $1.84
Selection 3: Dylan Andrews $1.71
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Price: $7.24 x Bet: $40
Payout: $289.60

Recreational Bettor, Budget: $200

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Mark Hunt $2.30- PUSH
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Price: $2.30 x Bet: $50
Payout: $115
 
Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Takeya Mizugaki $1.37
Selection 2: Nick Ring $1.46
Selection 3: Dylan Andrews $1.71
===================================================
Price: $3.42 x Bet: $50
Payout: $171
 
Parlay #3
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Selection 1: James Te-Huna $1.84
Selection 2: Pat Barry $1.69
Selection 3: Justin Scoogins $1.40
===================================================
Price: $4.35 x Bet: $50
Payout: $217.50
 
Parlay #4
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Selection 1: Mark Hunt $2.30
Selection 2: Julie Kedzie $1.47
Selection 3: Nick Ring $1.46
Selection 4: Takeya Mizugaki $1.37
===================================================
Price: $6.76 x Bet: $50
Payout: $338.13
 
 

For Fun Bettor, Budget: $75

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Parlay #1
===================================================
Selection 1: Nick Ring $1.46
Selection 2: Takeya Mizugaki $1.37
Selection 3: Julie Kedzie $1.47
Selection 4: Dylan Andrews $1.71
===================================================
Price: $5.03 x Bet: $25
Payout: $125.75
 

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Parlay #2
===================================================
Selection 1: Mark Hunt $2.30
Selection 2: Justin Scoogins $1.40
Selection 3: James Te-Huna $1.84
===================================================
Price: $5.92 x Bet: $25
Payout: $148.12
 
Parlay #3
===================================================
Selection 1: Krzysztof Jotko $2.78
Selection 2: Pat Barry $1.69
Selection 3: Nick Ring $1.46
===================================================
Price: $6.86 x Bet: $171.50
Payout:
 

Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns

Alex Garcia $1.19 Ben Wall $5.39

If you are betting on this fight it better be on Wall or some sort of prop. With Garcia getting the type of numbers that dominant champions usually show, there is no reason to back him, no matter how good he has the potential to be. This fight will be a no play either way as I don’t anticipate Wall being a threat to with this fight.

Justin Scoogins $1.40 vs Richie Vaculik $2.92

Scoogins is the dog on every site but as of right now Sportsbook has him as the dog at $2.20. I don’t understand how this is happening, but if you can jump on it, do it ASAP. Vaculik is a solid fighter, but Scoogins is a very good striker with a lot of pop. Not only is he the harder hitter, he has a vastly superior arsenal. The biggest key to this fight is whether or not he will be able to keep this fight on the feet. I like what I have seen out of Scoogins defensively, but if Vas can get him down he has the ability to grind him out and test his cardio. I would suggest using Scoogins as a contributor to your parlays and nothing more.

Caio Magalhaes $2.95 vs Nick Ring $1.46

I honestly forgot that Magalhaes was in the UFC until he was scheduled for his last fight with Karlos Vemola. He is a relatively unproven and one dimensional fighter. Ring isn’t my favourite guy to watch and he has stolen a couple of wins away from me in controversial fashion, but I think he has more then enough to win this fight. He is the better striker and his grappling is good enough to keep Caio out of a position to use his ground game. I won’t be making a single bet on Ring, but he is a steal at $1.46. He makes a solid addition to the bet card and should add some decent pop to your bottom line.

Nam Phan $3.12 vs Takeya Mizugaki $1.37

I like Miz, I think he has a well rounded and hardnosed skill set that can give just about any fighter in the division difficulties. Phan is cutting from 145 and if his technique holds up and is aided by a new found power surge against smaller opponents, he could have something going for him. Unfortunately, I think he has too many defensive issues to consider him a valid pick against an opponent that has the skills to exploit these issues both on the floor and the feet. Mizugaki is going to be one of your main single bets, but he is a valuable additions to your parlays.

Bruno Santos $1.51 vs Krzysztof Jotko $2.78

Two debutants and I am using the logic that I have used in that past to pick this fight. When 2 relative unknowns are hooking it up and see any reason to back the underdog, I do it. Jotko’s striking looked much better the Santos’s game. Bruno looks stiff and throws in singles, while Jotko has better flow and variety to his combinations. Additionally, Santos has been out of action for more then a year, while Jotko has fought 4 times since the Brazilian’s last fight date. Ring rust could be a major issues and we could see impact Satnos’s cardio. I am not 100% sold on the Polish fighter walking away with the win, but I do think he has a better shot then the odds indicate. He needs to keep this fight standing, which is a major concern, but I am willing to take the risk. I think a mid-range to lower valued bet would be the play here for Jotko straight up.

Julie Kedzie $1.47 vs Bethe Correia $2.89

Correia is taking this fight on short notice and is hoping to use it as a spring board into relevancy. Kedzie is a solid vet with a lot of top level experience. Submissions have been her ultimate undoing over her career, Correia doesn’t appear to be a major threat in that department. I think Kedzie brings the spot on striking she used against Miesha Tate to take it to her opponent and get the better of the exchanges on route to a pretty clear victory. Her value isn’t great, but its not bad considering the scenarios surrounding this bout. I would consider using Julie as part of a parlay. Combined with a well paying favourite she could make for a decent double bet on par with hitting a nice underdog single play.

Clint Hester $2.10 vs Dylan Andrews $1.71

I really like Dylan Andrews as a fighter. He doesn’t due anything overly flashy, but he is durable, his striking is pretty solid, and his ground game is serviceable (maybe better then that). Hester has a tonne of potential, but it is still early on. He has been out of action for a while which is a concern and his ground game and cardio are still major question marks. I was hoping these lines would be a little bit closer together, but they are not. I like Andrews as a parlay bet, he has value and if you pair him up with a mid-range or higher end favourite like Takeya Mizugaki or a Barry/ Te Huna you can get a decent return on your dime.

Pat Barry $1.69 vs Sao Palelei $2.30

Barry is a mystery, but if the Cerrone/Dunham fight taught me anything, its better to bet with the trends then against the. Cerrone had never lost back to back fights and always comes back strong from a defeat, which he did vs Dunham. Barry has been unable to string together back to back wins of over his last 5, alternating wins and losses. Every time his record gets dangerously close to the .500 mark he pulls out a win and that is what he is facing here. He did drop back to back fights not that long ago, but I think he pulls this one out. If Palelei can take him down or close the distance and land with power he can stop this fight, but I would expect that Barry’s technical striking advantage and devastating power will come through here. Barry could be tempting as a single bet, but with him sitting in the mid to high $1.60 range I think he is more appropriately used as part of a 2 to 4 fighter parlay bet.

Ryan Bader $1.21 vs Anthony Perosh $5.05

Nope, see Bader vs Ortiz outcome for my reasoning. Bader should win, but he should have beat Tito too. He pays too little to consider a straight up bet. Watch the prop section for this fight to show up.

James Te-Huna $1.84 vs Shogun Rua $2.08

The line has been moving back and forth, and if you are intending to back Te-Huna I would suggest waiting until the last second to make your bet as he line should move towards the more popular fighter. Shogun is a good fighter, but he is a shell of himself. He has traditionally struggled in physically demanding fights, with the Vera bout being the exception, and unless he can connect early on this should be a physical war. Can Shogun do enough with his wrestling to at least take the first 2 rounds, for sure. Will he? Maybe. I think Te-Huna hits hard enough and will be able t defend the grappling attack early, taking control of a tired and beaten up opponent late. It has been a while since Shogun has looked really good in a fight and Te-Huna will be fighting at home with a massive opportunity laid out in front of him. He shows up. With the limited number of dogs that I am backing here, Te-Huna should make the cut as a single bet, or work him with an average sized favourite, like Mizugaki or Ring come to mind, to get his number up over the$2.00 mark..

Antonio Silva $1.55 vs Mark Hunt $2.30

Silva has great BJJ, but his wrestling is sub par. If he can get on top of Mark Hunt we could see something similar to his 2nd round stoppage win against Fedor and probably with more devastating effect. Conversely, Silva’s chin is a major question mark and it has been exploited by the likes of Cain Velasquez (in the second fight), Daniel Cormier, and temporarily by Mike Kyle. His hand and foot speed are a major concern and should create openings for Hunt to land that big fight ending shot. With Hunt be the shorter fighter it should make it harder for the much taller Bigfoot to effectively change levels to set up his shot. There is always a risk when backing a fighter which some a glaring weakness as Hunt’s submission game presents. That being said, I think Hunt is a solid bet as the underdog and should be one of your bigger plays for the weekend, if not your biggest. There aren’t a tonne of underdogs that I will be backing here so even if he is your top bet, a midrange investment would probably fit the bill if you don’t have the bank roll.


Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1. Ryan Bader $1.21

2. Nick Ring $1.46

3. Takeya Mizugaki $1.37

4. Julie Kedzie $1.47

5. Alex Garcia $1.19

====================

6. Justin Scoogins $1.40

7. Mark Hunt $2.30

8. Dylan Andrews $1.71

9. James Te-Huna $1.84

10. Pat Barry $1.69

11. Krzysztof Jotko $2.78


Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. Mark Hunt $2.30 In search of Bigfoot, Mark Hunt’s fists will be, can he connect? Wait and see. (for the record I think he can, hence his status as #1).
2. James Te-Huna $1.84 Shogun is up against either a divisional change or retirement with another defeat, so he will be looking to bring his best. I still think Te-Huna can out muscle him and do enough damage with his hands to take home a ‘W’.
3. Dylan Andrews $1.71 Hester has a lot of talent and I was hoping Andrews would be the dog or at least even. Nonetheless, its close early and his durability shows up along with Hester’s cardio issues.
4. Krzysztof Jotko $2.78 He is one of only 2 dogs I am taking on the card, but this fight is really a toss up. Neither man overwhelmed me with their pre-UFC fights, but I did see a few more things I Like in Jotko + the value.
5. Pat Barry $1.69 Barry usually response under these must win situations. His value isn’t great, but his opponent’s last performance was worse. You can’t judge fighters on their last performance, but I’ll take Barry here and hope his head is in it.

The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

  • Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
  • I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.

Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. Ben Wall $5.39 If you have some extra bank and want to take a small shot on a big dog Wall is your play.
2.
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5.

The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.

Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.

Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.

The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.

There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.


Prop Bets-

Caio Magalhaes/Nick Ring Total Rounds Over 2.5- 4 of Ring’s 5 fights have gone the distance inside the Octagon and he has never been finished. Magalhaes has never been stopped either. Ring will most likely use a safe game plan to avoid a costly mistake leading to Magalhaes getting to work his grappling. Play the Over.

Nam Phan /Takeya Mizugaki Total Rounds Over 2.5- With a combined 31 decision its hard not seeing this fight go into the later stages. Both men have finishes, but Mizugaki has gone the distance 10 of 12 times in his combined WEC/UFC run and Nam has gone he distance in all 7 of his combined UFC, WEC, Strikeforce appearances. Play the Over.

Bruno Santos/Krzysztof Jotko Total Rounds Over 2.5- Both men have shown limited finish ability and the over seems like a easy play here. A combined 18 of 26 fights have gone to a decision, need I say more. Play the Over.

Julie Kedzie/Bethe Correia Total Rounds Over 2.5- Kedzie has 15 career decisions and Correia has just a single career finish, so the over here makes the most sense.

Pat Barry/Sao Palelei Total Rounds Under 1.5- Both guys have power, and neither man has a perfectly uncracked chin. Heavyweights throw heavyweight leather and the under is never a bad play. Plus it covers you no matter who wins if the bout ends early.

Pat Barry to Win by KO/TKO/DQ- I don’t see this fight going the distance and I don’t see Barry submitted a BJJ Black belt, so if he wins it, as I think he will, its going to be by knockout.

Ryan Bader to Win by KO/TKO/DQ- Bader does hit hard and Perosh is susceptible to the knockout. See Perosh v. Jimmo. Bader usually lands a big shot in these fights and puts it away at some point.

Antonio Silva/Mark Hunt Total Rounds Under 2.5Even with this being a 5 rounder, I could see the line at 1.5 Either way I think that playing the under is the best bet here. Either Hunt score the knockout or Bigfoot wins it somehow on the mat.