UFC FIGHT NIGHTS 99 & 100- ”Big Bad Bader in Brazil & Gegard Decks the Hall”

I wrote this...

On the heels of the monumental UFC 205 event in New York City, the Octagon did double duty on Saturday with appearances in bothBelfast, Northern Ireland and Sao Paulo, Brazil. In total there were 25 fights, with a 26 bout fall through during Fight Week. In total 15 of the 25 fights ended via some form of stoppage, including all six Sao Paulo prelims. In the main events, Ryan Bader launched himself into Free Agency with a big victory and Gegard Mousasi avenged an upset defeat in abrupt fashion. Let’s take a look at the next fights to make for some of the key winners from both events.

UFC Fight Night 99- Who They Should Fight Next Kevin Lee v. Evan Dunham

Lee has yet to crack the Lightweight Top 15, but he continued his push with a strong finish of a dangerous opponent. Dunham is a well-travelled veteran that represents a solid step up in competition for Lee. Both guys are more than willing to compete on the mat or trade hands. This pairing would be an excellent main card bout for a Fight Night event.

Artem Lobov v. Hooker/Knight Winner

After an impressive run on TUF and a pretty rough start to his UFC career, this was by far the best performance in recent memory for Lobov. Next weekend, Dan Hooker and Jason Knight square off on Fight Pass and the winner of that contest would be a perfect next opponent for Lobov. Both men are aggressive strikers that would willingly engage Artem on the feet.

Kyogi Horiguchi v. Jussier Formiga

Horiguchi continues to impress and grow after his title fight loss. His striking game remains the focal point of his attack, but he continues to showcase an improving mat game. The JMMA star would be wise to avoid another bout with Demetrious Johnson just yet, but at 26-years old he could the future of the division. Formiga is one of the few top ranked fighters in the division not to have fought for the title yet, but if he isn’t granted that opportunity next- Horiguchi would be an excellent next opponent. Both men offer a contrasting strength, with an improving secondary attack.

Alexander Volkov v. Adam Milstead

It was a close fight that could have gone either way for the former Bellator Champion, but he came out on top. The UFC’s Heavyweight division is in need of some new faces and Volkov is just that. Adam Milstead had an impressive performance in his debut, and the winner of this hypothetical bout would certainly make some waves in the unofficial 16-25 rankings of the division.

Stevie Ray v. Nick Hein

It was a split decision where two judges saw it completely for Ray and the third gave every round to Pearson. For Ross that is devastating and could signify a passing of the torch for European MMA. A fight with Nick Hein would be a solid main card scrap on a European Fight Night. Hein could opt to utilize his grappling skills, but he seems far more interested in banging it out on the feet. That approach makes for a much more fan friendly affair.

Gegard Mousasi v. Luke Rockhold

Mousasi got that nasty loss of his record, or at least avenged it in definitive fashion. He has wins over Belfort and Leites and a loss to Jacare amongst top ranked opponents. Rockhold was supposed to face Souza and they may revisit that option, but if not, a pairing of former Strikeforce champions would make for an excellent fight. If Mousasi is going to jump into the elite group at the top of the division, he has to beat one of them. Rockhold is coming off of a loss, but he is still a high profile option for Gegard to start a potential 2017 title run against.

UFC Fight Night 100- Who They Should Fight Next Pedro Munhoz v. Taylor Lapilus

Munhoz has regained a little of the shine that he lost with the Rivera fight. His guillotine choke is nasty and he can slap it on at a moment’s notice. Lapilus is a very good striker and has some ground skills, potentially enough to get him in trouble against the Brazilian. The winner of this fight won’t get a shot at the Top 15, but they would take a major step in that direction.

Gadzhimurad Antigulov v. Ion Cutelaba

The heavier divisions need new blood and Antigulov is just that. He got his UFC career off to a great start and while Cutelaba is 1-1 in the UFC- he has represented himself well in both fights. Cutelaba is aggressive and will push the pace. Whether he can stay vertical or out of the clinch versus Antigulov will decide this fight.

Kamaru Usman v. Jake Ellenberger

I looked for a non-ranked fighter that made sense for Usman’s progression, but just about anyone available seems like either a step back or a lateral moved compared to Alves. Maia has earned hi shot at the title and shouldn’t be fighting a dangerous unranked opponent for his next fight. Instead, Ellenberger is a long time vet that just jumped back into the Top 15 with his thunderous win over Matt Brown. He is a solid wrestler and capable striker. If Usman is going to make a run in the division, he needs to be able to get by the type of fighter that Jake represents.

Krzysztof Jotko v. winner of Brunson/Whittaker

Jotko is in a tough spot. He is coming off the biggest win of his career, but there aren’t a lot of realistic options for his next fight, without taking a step back in competition to face an unranked foe. The current landscape offers either elite fighters that would be too much too soon (Jacare, Rockhold, Mousasi), legends who most likely wouldn’t be interested in the fight (Silva or Belfort), a lesser ranked opponents like Tim Boetsch, or a fighter coming off of a loss like Hall. Instead, the Pole should wait for either the winner of Brunson/Whittaker or Evans/Kennedy. I paired him with Brunson/Whittaker as the winner would then be in line for a push up the ranks. With the name recognition of Evans and Kennedy- the winner of that fight most likely gets a fight with someone in the Top 5 ASAP.

Claudia Gadelha v.Tecia Torres

Gadelha is 0-2 versus the champ, but she is still a legit contender. If Joanna were to drop the strap, Claudia will be near the top of the list to challenge the new champ. I don’t want to see her upending potential title challengers on the rise, so pairing her with Torres works for me. I know Tecia is coming off of a lost, but she is still a legit top 10 fighter. I honestly don’t see her ever fighting for the title, but if she could beat Gadelha it might change my mind.

Thomas Almeida v. Eddie Wineland

Almeida put Morales away in impressive fashion, but he was an unranked and relatively inexperienced opponent. The loss to Garbrandt still looms large for the Brazilian and it will until he defeats an opponent ranked in the Top 15. Wineland is a former WEC champ and fought for the UFC strap. He most likely won’t be able to put a run together to return to title contention, but he is a solid gatekeeper at the very least. Wineland’s willingness to stand and trade will play directly into the Brazilian’s wheelhouse. At the same time, Almeida’s aggression makes him hittable and anyone that Eddie can hit clean, he can knockout. Sign me up for that fight.

Ryan Bader v. Winner of Cormier/Johnson

Bader is a Free Agent and coming off of a dominant victory. The UFC has lost a couple of noteworthy fighters to Bellator in recent months and should start to be concerned about a few other key names making the move. Bader has a win over the current Bellator champ and fights with the likes of King Mo and Liam McGeary are other solid options for Bader if he jumps ship. Instead, with Jones out of action the UFC needs a new contender to move on to after the Cormier/Johnson fights. If DC retains the strap, there is already some built in heat between Cormier and Bader. They have also yet to face each other, so that bout isn’t a hard fight to imagine. Conversely, the Rumble rematch seems like a bit too soon unless the UFC takes the retribution angle and has Bader talk about his burning desire to make up for a terrible performance.

Final Thoughts

The Weekend started extremely well with 5 straight wins, but I finished the weekend with a slightly respectable 15-10 record. The Bet Packs both produced something winnings with the props breaking even. I picked up a couple nice upset, especially with the Munhoz fight playing out almost exactly as expected. Unfortunately, a couple of key losses resulted in four parlays falling a single leg short of victory. I will continue to recalibrate my Parlay strategies to find the ideal balance of risk and reward. With 25 more fights done and in the books, the UFC is just gearing up as he we head to the close of 2016. UFC Fight Night 101 is up next and then 5 more cards in December.

 

eVENT PASSWORD copyUFN 99

Parlay Header

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Teruto Ishihara -223 
Selection 2: Kyoji Horiguchi -190 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: +121 Bet: 8 units
Payout: 9.69 units
 
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Parlay #2 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Selection 1: Zak Cummings -170 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: Marion Reneau -205 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 3: Kyoji Horiguchi -190 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: +261 Bet: 6 units
Payout: 15.64 units
 
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Parlay #3
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Selection 1: Tim Johnson -125 
Selection 2: Justin Ledet -141 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 3: Teruto Ishihara -223 
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Price: +364 Bet: 6 units
Payout: 20.74 units
 
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Anna Elmose +118  
Selection 2: Magnus Cedenblad -227 
Selection 3: Magomed Mustafaev +110 
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Price: +559  x Bet: 4 units
Payout: 22.38 units
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Anna Elmose +118 
Selection 2: Magnus Cedenblad -227 
Selection 3: Stevie Ray +108 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: +553  x Bet: 4 units 
Payout: 22.13 units
 
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Marion Reneau Wins inside the Distance +175 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: Amanda Cooper/Anna Elmose Total Rounds Under 2.5 +140 
Selection 3: Kyoji Horiguchi to Win by Decision -105 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: +1189  x Bet: 4 units
Payout: 47.54 units
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Gegard Mousasi to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: Abdul Razak Alhassan/Charlie Ward Total Rounds Under 1.5 -150 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 3: Kevin Lee/Magomed Mustafaev Total Rounds Under 1.5 +185 
Selection 4: Justin Ledet -141 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 5: Magnus Cedenblad -227 
===================================================
Price: +3409  x Bet: 4 units 
Payout: 136.34 units

 

Draftkings Line up

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Draftkings
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Fighter 1: Stevie Ray $7700 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Teruto Ishihara $8900 
Fighter 3: Magomed Mustafaev $7900 
Fighter 4: Anna Elmose $7600 
Fighter 5: Justin Ledet $8200 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 6: Abdul Razak Alhassan $9400 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
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Fighter 1: Magnus Cedenblad $8800 
Fighter 2: 
Fighter 3: 
Fighter 4: 
Fighter 5: 
 

*With so many fights to breakdown for the weekend I am going to get right to the point.

Gegard Mousasi -500 vs Uriah Hall +472 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

No Play here. I fully expect Mousasi to win this fight, but their first meeting is the perfect example of why you don’t bet these fights. A prop bet is a much better route to take.

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Mousasi is pretty expensive at $9600. He could very well pull off the finish or eat up a lot of time holding top position. If that is the case the return won’t be worth the money spent and I expect him to be a popular pick. Pass.

Ross Pearson -112 vs Stevie Ray +108 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Consider the quality of opposition and the late notice for Ray, the line is telling us something. For Pearson to win this fight he needs a big uptick in offense or a deviation from the norm with a wrestling-heavy attempt. I don’t like when fighters need to act out of character to win. Ray uses his speed and aggression to either outpoint or score the KO. I’ve got him in one of my Silver Plays.

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Ray is very affordable at $7700. He has a handful of UFC finishes and is facing an opponent that has been knocked out multiple times. Ray won’t get a lot of looks from the majority of players and he frees up some spending money as well. Sign him up.

Alexander Volkov +123 vs Tim Johnson -125 

Johnson’s wrestling heavy attack and lower base will be the key against a fighter that has issues fending off similarly skilled fighters. Johnson’s gritty style should wear on Volkov, especially against the cage. I like Johnson in one of my 2 Gold parlays.

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I could see this fight going the distance and the out will drop off of later in the fight if it does. No good for fantasy points- pass.

Artem Lobov +215 vs Teruto Ishihara -223 

Ishihara is a terrible matchup for Artem. His speed and movement along being a legit power puncher will be a lot for the hands down chin up defense of Lobov. Artem could get back in this fight if Teruto gasses out and Lobov and pressure him- but it’s a not a likely situation. I like Teruto in my Gold section.

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Ishihara has finished back to back opponents and the majority of his wins have come inside the distance. He will land at will against Lobov and eventually crack that chin. Sign him up.

Ian McCall -321 vs Neil Seery +320

Under normal circumstances, Seery is completing outmatched here. That being said, the layoff for McCall and fighting on the road against a retiring opponent is concerning. “Uncle Creepy” has multiple avenues to victory, especially with his wrestling- but the side bet is a pass for me.

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Seery is tough to get out of there and McCall’s finishing rate in recent fights isn’t all that strong. Pass.

Jack Marshman +221 vs Magnus Cedenblad -227 

Marshman can crack and isn’t afraid to brawl. If he can land something on Cedenblad he could change the complexion of the fight. I expect the big Swede to push him into the cage, drag him to the mat, and eventually finish him here.  His reach and height will force the Brit to cover a lot of grown when trying to get in range. This opens him up to counters and takedowns. I feel comfortable picking Cedenblad, but he falls to a Silver bet with better risk/reward options available for my top plays.

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The Swede has showed an excellent finishing touch in the UFC which is something that we are looking for here. He could very well put the stamp on his opponent early in the opening round so he could easily snap up a spot in your lineup. Instead, I’ve got him as a sub as I am trying to jump on some of the lesser knowns on the card.

Ali Bagautinov +186 vs Kyoji Horiguchi -190 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Similar to Ishihara/Lobov, this fight is a stylistic nightmare for one fighter. Ali has a more likely avenue to victory here, using his wrestling, but catching Horiguchi is easier said than done. Horiguchi is too quick and too diverse on the feet. He gets the nod and a spot in my Gold section. P.S. This fight should be on the main card.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Nothing here. Kyoji is too well known and Bagautinov has never been finished.

Kevin Lee -105 vs Magomed Mustafaev +110 

I’d like to think that my picks can influence the betting lines, but I’m pretty sure its a pipe dream. Nonetheless, I have seen close dogs that I picked and posted turn into favourites within 24-hours. Coincidence? Probably. I still like Mustafaev here. Lee can wrestle and should wrestle, but I expect him to opt to stand and trade. Lee gets hit a lot. He was hurt by Escudero and stopped by Santos- not big power punchers. Mustafaev lands his power strikes over top of the guard of Lee and stops him. This is a step up for the Russian, Silver play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I love this fantasy option. He is only going to cost you $7900 and Magomed has never seen the cards in his career. Add him.

Amanda Cooper -125 vs Anna Elmose +118 

I like the line we are getting here. Elmose can crack and did so against bigger women at 135. The cut is concerning, but if it goes well it will be all systems go. She comes from a striking background outside of MMA, so her lack of total experience isn’t that concerning to me. Cooper is feisty, but I don’t see her holding up when the leather starts flying. Elmose  falls into my Silver section.

Draft-Kings-Logo

Elmose is very cheap, she is a relative unknown, she’s a woman (most players will gravitate to the bigger men), and she had finished all 3 of her wins in tidy fashion.  Add her.

Justin Ledet -141 vs Mark Godbeer +138 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I was impressed with Ledet in his debut. His striking technique was effective and his cardio benefited tremendously. Godbeer is a capable striker, but I don’t see him having the skill to get through the jab of his foe. Once he starts to slow down, that task becomes even more difficult. Ledet continues to impress, Gold parlay leg.

Draft-Kings-Logo

At $8200, Ledet is a nice add to your lineup. He isn’t that well known and went the distance in his debut- both factors will push players away. Godbeer has been knocked out twice and once he starts to slow down, Ledet should be able to land at will. I expect him to look for the finish in this fight as his comfort level will be a little higher after his debut.

Alexander Yakovlev +158 vs Zak Cummings -170 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Yakovlev has issues with guys that will wrestle. Cummings will wrestle and clinch. Yakovlev’s volume will wain at times. Cummings is pretty consistent with his striking and can take a punch. I like Cummings to simply do more here.

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I see Cummings winning the totals battle, but not getting a finish. Pass.

Marion Reneau -205 vs Milana Dudieva +196 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Dudieva has been out for a long time and the impact of a pregnancy is not going to be positive on her already questionable cardio. She isn’t a great striker and her grappling game usually results in a bad position if she can’t get the finish. Reneau will feast on that. Gold Play.

Draft-Kings-Logo

The exhaustion factor is going to make it hard for Dudieva to survive the entire fight and Reneau can pack some power behind her strikes along with having a decent sub game. This won’t be a popular pick, but I like it just for that reason. She is a little too expensive for my lineup, but if you drop Ledet and Alhassan you could play Reneau and Cedenblad in their place.

Brett Johns -205 vs Kwan Ho Kwak +180 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

No play here. There are aspects on both sides I don’t like.

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Same here.

Abdul Razak Alhassan -295 vs Charlie Ward +284 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Nothing here. Both very green. I like Alhassan more, but not at this price.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I am going to take a shot at Alhassan here. He has finished everyone he has fought inside the opening 90-seconds. Most players will see that this is his debut and averages 0 points as a result- so they will pass. Additionally, he is expensive. I am willing to spend that money and cash in on an early knockout from an infrequently played fighter.

1. Gegard Mousasi -500 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Teruto Ishihara -223 

3. Kyoji Horiguchi -190 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Marion Reneau -205 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Zak Cummings -170 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

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6. Magnus Cedenblad -227 

7. Tim Johnson -125 

8. Justin Ledet -141 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

9. Anna Elmose +118 

10. Magomed Mustafaev +110 

11. Stevie Ray +108 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

12. Brett Johns -205 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

13. Abdul Razak Alhassan -295 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

1. Anna Elmose +118 

2. Stevie Ray +108 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Magomed Mustafaev +110 

4. Tim Johnson -125 

5. Marion Reneau Wins inside the Distance +175 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

1. Kevin Lee to Win by Decision +200  Over 50% of Lee’s wins have come by decision, including 4 of 6 in the UFC. If he opts to use a takedown heavy game or rely on his jab to neutralize the aggression of his foe- we could be going the distance. At +200, the number suggest this is a solid counter bet.

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Information.

Prop Bets

Gegard Mousasi /Uriah Hall 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Alexander Volkov/Tim Johnson Total Rounds Over 1.5 -175 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Prior to his last bout, Volkov went to the 3rd round in 4 straight fights. Johnson has gone the distance in back to back fights- the first 2 of his career. I expect a lot of time eating clinch fighting along with some top position control for Johnson. A play on Johnson by decision is also worth a look.

Artem Lobov/Teruto Ishihara Total Rounds Under 1.5 +150 

Lobov hangs his hands far too much and stands quite vertical. That is a disaster waiting to happen against the speed and power of Ishihara. I want to keep Lobov’s power in play as well. I like the under here.

 

Kyoji Horiguchi to Win by Decision -105 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I really like this play. Horiguchi has power and is a dangerous striker, but he has just a single finish over his last 6-fights. Just as important, Bagautinov has never been finished and that includes a pair of fights against the champ and the next best fighter in the division. Horiguchi could catch him, but I think just outpoints him for the win.

Kevin Lee/Magomed Mustafaev Total Rounds Under 1.5 +185 

Lee has more decisions on his UFC record than finishes, but he has shown that he can finish when in a good position. For Mustafaev, he is looking to hurt his opponent when he is walking out to the cage. He throws everything with fight ending power, stopping his foe in all 14 of his wins- 12 that would qualify for the Under here. I don’t expect to see the scorecards here and the second round if far from a guarantee. Play the Under.

Amanda Cooper/Anna Elmose Total Rounds Under 2.5 +140 

This is a gift, take it and run with it. Elmose has never seen the judges in 4 pro bouts. Cooper hasn’t either. In fact, neither girl has seen the 3rd round. I expect to see them go for it early. With Elmose, she hits incredibly hard, but if she can’t grab that quick finish her cardio could be an issue. This fight gets done in a hurry either way. Take the rounds and plus money and run.

Justin Ledet/Mark Godbeer Total Rounds Over 1.5 -134 

While I picked Ledet as a fantasy play, his use of his jab and movement to keep his opponent out of range could easily push this fight into the second half. He should recognize his endurance advantage and opt to drag Godbeer into deep waters before opening up. I like the Over.

Marion Reneau Wins inside the Distance +175 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I considered playing the under to keep Dudieva’s submission game in play, but I just don’t see her catching Reneau. Marion can thump and she had a decent submission game on record. Dudieva’s cardio is pretty weak and she will be leaving all kinds of openings based on her aggressive style. Reneau eventually puts her away.

Brett Johns/Kwan Ho Kwak

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Abdul Razak Alhassan/Charlie Ward 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

eVENT PASSWORD copyUFN 100

Parlay Header

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Kamaru Usman -193 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: Thales Leites -160 
Selection 3: Jack Hermansson -193 
===================================================
Price: +275 Bet: 6 units
Payout: 16.47 units
 
 
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Parlay #1
===================================================
Selection 1: Sergio Moraes -164 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: Pedro Munhoz +165 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 3: Marcos Rogerio De Lima -152 
===================================================
Price: +607  x Bet: 4 units
Payout: 24.29 units
 
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Parlay #2
===================================================
Selection 1: Sergio Moraes -164 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: Thales Leites -160 
Selection 3: Marcos Rogerio De Lima -152 
Selection 4: Kamaru Usman -193 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
===================================================
Price: +558  x Bet: 4 units
Payout: 22.34 units
 
 
===================================================
Parlay #1
===================================================
Selection 1: Johnny Eduardo -147 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: Francimar Barroso -149 
Selection 3: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira +315 
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Price: +1065  x Bet: 3 units
Payout: 31.96 units
 
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Parlay #2
===================================================
Selection 1: Gadzhimurad Antigulov/Marcos Rogerio De Lima Total Rounds Under 1.5 -140 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: Thales Leites to Win by Submission +275 
Selection 3: Cezar Ferreira/Jack Hermansson Total Rounds Under 1.5 +122 
===================================================
Price: +1327  x Bet: 3 units
Payout: 39.81 units
 
===================================================
Parlay #1 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Selection 1: Albert Morales/Thomas Almeida Total Rounds Under 1.5 -110 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: Johnny Eduardo -147 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 3: Pedro Munhoz +165 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 4: Kamaru Usman -193 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
===================================================
Price: +1191  x Bet: 3 units 
Payout: 35.72 units

 

Draftkings Line up

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DraftKings
===================================================
Fighter 1: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira $6700 
Fighter 2: Thomas Almeida $9700 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 3: Thales Leites $8300 
Fighter 4: Marcos Rogerio De Lima $8500 
Fighter 5: Luis Henrique $9000 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 6: Pedro Munhoz $7800  12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
===================================================
Salary Remaining:
 
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Subs
===================================================
Fighter 1: Kamaru Usman $8800 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Jack Hermansson $8900 
Fighter 3: Johnny Eduardo $8600 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: 
Fighter 5: 
 
 
 

 

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira +315 vs Ryan Bader -340 

I like Nog here, despite a lot of things point to Bader. He is the more complete fighter, but he tends to fall in love with his striking- that can get him in trouble. If he doesn’t wrestle, his chin is an issue and Nog has some slick hands. Also keep in mind Bader is an FA after this fight, he might be a little distracted or feel the pressure. Still a tough fight, Nog is a Bronze parlay leg.

Draft-Kings-Logo

I have Nog in my lineup. Over 5 round he could put up some points or score the finish against a less than stellar chin on Bader. At $6700 he is very cheap and fighting at home. Most will be on Bader, so Nog will provide unique points and allows me to add other higher end players. Sign him up.

Albert Morales +285 vs Thomas Almeida -290 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I’m going to pass here. I’ve seen some things out of Almeida that are concerning, even in victory, that have me concerned. Morales can crack. No play at this line.

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I will be adding Almeida to my DK lineup though. He is very expensive, but playing Lil Nog frees up that cash. If he wins, he wins big with a knockout.

Claudia Gadelha -421 vs Cortney Casey +380 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I’m going to pass here as well. Post-Title fight let down scenario, almost have to put a small bet on Casey.

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Nothing here, a submission could present itself, but we are probably looking at a decision.

Krzysztof Jotko +150 vs Thales Leites -160 

Love Leites in this fight. He is better in the clinch than Jotko and should be able to nullify any range striking that the Pole offers by closing the gap. Jotko is a decision machine and winning on the cards in Brazil while offering enough offense to win, but not getting drawn into the clinch will be tough. Leites is a Gold parlay bet for me.

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At $8300 Leites is very affordable and should be able to set up the finish once he puts his foe on the floor. Look for either an RNC or an arm triangle choke. The hands of Leites have improved as well, so a knockout isn’t out of the question either. Add him.

Kamaru Usman -193 vs Warlley Alves +185 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Non-Brazilin to win in Brazil? There has to 1 or 2 right? Alves needs a stoppage here- either hurting Usman on the feet or catching a guillotine during a TDA. It also has to happen quickly. Usman is improving on the feet and is a giant from top position. He will exhaust Alves, who isn’t known for having the best cardio. Usman takes a clear decision here if he can score the finish late on a tired opponent. Gold Play.

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I will pass here. There are points to be had and if Alves does wear down by the middle of the fight Kamaru could stop him, but at best Usman is a sub for me.

Sergio Moraes -164 vs Zak Ottow +153 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Moraes should win this fight, even if he opts to stand and trade. It won’t be quite as easy, but I think this is his bout for the taking. Ottow could be the busier fighter on the feet, but he will need to do it by a wide margin to grab the decision. I expect this fight to hit that mat at some point, despite Sergio best tries to avoid it. The finish should come shortly after. Still, I can’t trust Sergio with my Gold parlay simply because he does not fight to his strengths. Silver play.

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If it’s a sloppy kickboxing fight, the points won’t be worth it. Pass.

Cezar Ferreira +185 vs Jack Hermansson -193  

Ferreira has been relying heavily on his ground game to avoid getting knocked out. He is a frustrating fighter to watch, because once on top he does very little and gets away with it. I think Hermansson’s forward pressure, output, movement will make it hard for Cezar to time him. Hermansson finds the mark on that paper-thin chin. Gold Play- wow 2 of 3 picks in the Big player are foreigners. That could be a recipe for disaster, but I like to live dangerously.

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I would expect a stoppage here so Hermansson is an option worth considering. Unfortunately, he doesn’t make my team beyond being a sub. I like Henrique to get the finish against a less capable opponent. Ferreira could pitch a shutout if he can routinely score the takedowns.

Gadzhimurad Antigulov +140 vs Marcos Rogerio De Lima -152 

De Lima is a balls to the wall fighter. He is big, physical, and hits like a hammer- a big one. That aggression can get him in trouble, but he will need it here in this fight. Antigulov is a little on the small side, but he is built like a brick house. He likes the clinch, but that brings him into the danger zone with Rogerio, who can do a lot of damage in close. De Lima lands strikes in the clinch and then pulls back to land something big on the break. Silver play.

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De Lima is a first round finisher. That means he is a must have on your Fantasy team. When he wins, it is abrupt and it is violent. You can have that wonderful package on your team for the low low price of $8500. I like it, so I bought it. Add him.

Johnny Eduardo -147 vs Manny Gamburyan +138 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I’m not a Gamburyan fan. I picked him to upset Gibson and he was well on his way to losing that fight until he caught him in a sub. This fight will most likely play out the same way. Manny could surprise me and land takedowns and hold prolonged top control frequently enough to steal 2 rounds, but his more likely path to victory is to catch Eduardo in a guillotine. Johnny is no slouch on the mat and far more capable on the feet than Gamburyan. I think he sticks to the outside and wins a decision with a more effective striking game or catches Gamburyan square on the chin for another KO loss for the Anvil. I have Eduardo in my Bronze play. He should win this, but he is so inactive at times it is hard to get a strong feel for what he brings to the cage.

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Eduardo is an option, but he is either too expensive compared to some fighters or less likely to finish compared to others. Sub.

Christian Colombo +240 Luis Henrique -260 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Colombo would have beat Danho if not for the illegal blow, but it wasn’t a great performance against a no-so-great opponent. Henrique is undersized, but he should be able to bowl over Colombo once he gets on the inside. I see his superior cardio and better ground skills being the difference here. That being said, the return isn’t great and he does leave his chin exposed a little too much for my liking- especially at Heavyweight. No Play.

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Henrique does get a spot on my Fantasy squad. His submission game is pretty decent and once he gets on top of Colombo, he takes the size factor out of the equation and he should be able to finish against a less skilled opponent. He got through a more dangerous foe in his last fight. The high price will scare some folks away, not me- I’ve got the budget to play him.

Justin Scoggins -175 vs Pedro Munhoz +165 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I like Munhoz here. Scoggins used his size and length very effectively at 125, but that won’t be as big an advantage at 135. Munhoz hits hard and only needs one chance to lock up a guillotine to finish the fight. I expect his aggression will force Scoggins to shoot at some point. He usually incorporates his wrestling in normal situations. When he does shoot, he leaves his neck exposed. Moraga caught him for the finish with a guillotine. He had a couple of opportunities before he locked the last one up and I have seen a couple other instances where Scoggins left himself exposed. Munhoz just needs one chance to finish. Silver Play.

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Munhoz has a number of quick opening round finishes on his record and will cost you a very reasonable $7800. Sign him.

Darren Stewart +140 vs Francimar Barroso -149 

Barroso could be ripe for an upset here, but I don’t see Stewart being ready for the UFC level just yet. I am also looking at the fact that the UFC has a Brit heading to Brazil. Why not have him fight closer to home at UFN 99 if they feel he can win here, instead he is fighting in Brazil later in the day in front of a crowd that wants to see him lose. Maybe the UFC is looking to create a bridge fight between UFN 99 and 100 to pull in some European viewers from earlier in the day. Barroso grinds the new guy down, but he is Bronze play for me.

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We could see a stoppage here, but Barroso has been more inclined to go to the cards. Pass.

 

1. Kamaru Usman -193 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Thales Leites -160 

3. Jack Hermansson -193 

4. Sergio Moraes -164 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Luis Henrique -260 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

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6. Johnny Eduardo -147 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

7. Thomas Almeida -290 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

8. Claudia Gadelha -421 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

9. Marcos Rogerio De Lima -152 

10. Pedro Munhoz +165 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

11. Francimar Barroso -149 

12. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira +315 

1. Pedro Munhoz +165 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira +315 

3. Thales Leites to Win by Submission +275 

4. Cezar Ferreira/Jack Hermansson Total Rounds Under 1.5 +122 

5. Albert Morales/Thomas Almeida Total Rounds Under 1.5 -110 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

1. Cortney Casey +380:  With all of the recent upsets revolving around post-title fight letdowns, you have to put a few bucks down on Casey.

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Information.

Prop Bets

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira/Ryan Bader 

See Betting Scenario Section.

Albert Morales/Thomas Almeida Total Rounds Under 1.5 -110 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

These two will fight to finish. Morales is aggressive and that could give Almeida some trouble. It could also open Albert up to taking some fight ending damage. If Almeida is elite and the Garbrandt loss was just a slight setback, he should blow Morales out of the water. Either way, we will see fireworks early and an excellent chance of an early finish.

Thales Leites to Win by Submission +275 

Leites has 15 submission wins on his record and 6 of his last 8 stoppages have been via tap out. Jotko will engage Leites in the clinch and Thales scores the majority of his takedowns from that position. Once on the mat, Leites is a hard guy to defend against. Great odds on the submission win for such a talented ground fighter.

Cezar Ferreira/Jack Hermansson 

See Betting Scenario Section.

Gadzhimurad Antigulov/Marcos Rogerio De Lima Total Rounds Under 1.5 -140 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

De Lima has yet to see the 2nd round during his 4-fight UFC stint and has just 1 fight hitting the Over 1.5 round mark over his last 8-fights. He fights to finish, but that can get him in some trouble as well. The Brazilian has been stopped twice in his career. Antigulov can also finish with 17 of 18 wins coming inside the distance, including 15 in the opening frame. He has also been finished in all 4 of his losses, 3 going under the total.

Christian Colombo/Luis Henrique Total Rounds Over 1.5 -135 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I don’t think this fight sees the scorecards, but I like the Over here. Henrique seems to work at a pace he is comfortable with and doesn’t like to rush things. He has gone to the 2nd round or beyond in 5 of his last 6 and hit the Over in all but one. The length of Colombo could slow down the forward push of Henrique down and he might be looking to drag this fight into deep waters where his foe will start to slow down. Heavies and Overs don’t usually mix, but I like it here.

Justin Scoggins/Pedro Munhoz 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See Betting Scenario Section.

Darren Stewart/Francimar Barroso

See Betting Scenario Section.

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