UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Henderson- The Good, the Bad, & the Ugly + the Bet Pack
A rare Sunday night UFC event brought about another rarity among MMA cards; a night dominated by the underdogs. With 9 of 11 fights ending with an upset and a majority draw thrown in just for the heck of it, UFC Fight Night 38/39 (who really knows) was entertaining show, but an predictors nightmare. Yours truly went a overwhelming 2-8-1, and the high watermark on this site belonging to Prediction Panel member Ryan Poli and is 3-7-1 record. Not to be out done, the Public (Public Picks) finished on the bottom of this mountain of manure with a 1-9-1 record.
To say the least the bet pack was an unprofitable one and as promised all those that purchased it will receive the next pack 100% free (email firstname.lastname@example.org if you don’t receive the password prior to the start of the next event). The actual in cage action saw Dan Henderson come back from the dead, the referees take a central roll in the outcome of fights, and the sh*t hit the proverbial fan on all sorts of fronts. Let’s take a look the card top to bottom in the latest installment of the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly. I’ll give you 3 guesses which one will be the shortest, you’ll probably only need one.
Godofredo Pepey kept the EPU theory going strong with an upset in the opening fight of the night. He ended formally undefeated prospect Noad Lahat’s debut with a perfectly timed jumping knee.
Earning his second win in the UFC, Kenny Robertson made quick work of Thiago Perpetuo, controlling the action on the mat after a big head kick to start. Robertson might not contend for a title or even a spot in the Top 15 but he could be a solid lower level guy.
After dispatching the TUF Brazil runner-up, CB Dollaway showed he is more then just a….face by dropping TUF champ Cezar Ferreira after just 39 seconds. Cezar showed little concern for his opponent’s offense and paid for it with his consciousness.
In the main event, we had a complete turning of the tables. Unlike in the first meeting, Shogun Rua carried the early action; landed the big shots, and came within an eyelash of ending the bout. Continuing to flip the script from their initial meeting, it was Dan Henderson mounting a second half comeback. But unlike Shogun circa 2011, Hendo left no doubt by exploding Rua’s noes and ending the fight in brutal fashion. Neither man will be in title contention any time soon, but it was a pretty solid ending to a decent scrap.
On a separate note, from this weekend’s Bellator event I really liked the fact that leading up to the main event they had the fighters checked over and greased up backstage before hand. This allowed them to go straight to the cage and to get the fight going. The fight was garbage, but I think the UFC should look into this as a tool to improve the flow of their events.
Hans Stringer and Francimar Barrosso did their best to show the lack of depth in the Light Heavyweight division. Stringer was making his debut and for Francimar it was fight #2, so they are far from experienced vets, but neither appeared ready to threaten a the cast currently residing in the Top 15.
It may have been a completely accidental happening, but nonetheless it had a massive impact on the fight- Jussier Formiga clearly landed an unintentional head-butt on Scott Jorgensen that sent him tumbling to the mat. The finish was a thing of beauty, but it was tarnished by how the fight was put in that position. This fight should be overturned and a rematch immediately booked- in similar fashion to the 2011 Robbie Peralta vs Mackens Semerzier meeting. Peralta originally won by TKO after dropping Semerzier with a head butt and finishing him on the floor. It was overturned to a No Contest and a rematch was rebooked, but it never materialized.
Ronny Markes could be on his way out the door. After his coach outted him for badly missing weight because he came home to party, he was quickly dispatched by Thiago Santos in the biggest upset in a night full of upsets. The liver quick was perfectly placed and produced and Markes getting finished with a kick to the gut couldn’t have been a more ironic finish to the bout.
Grabbing the fence and the subsequent penalties didn’t alter the end result between Mairbek Taisumov and Michel Prazeres, as Prazeres won the fight pillar to post, but it did make Mairbek look bad. The frustration from the corner of the Austrian, specifically Roger Huerta, was very visible.
Gian Villante did exactly what I expected him to do in opening round. Unfortunately he was unable to continue that success in rounds 2 and 3 out of pure exhaustion. Fabio Maldonando rallied and took the fight, but it was clear that had Gian not gassed he would have taken home the victory.
I felt Norman Parke did enough to win the fight, but obviously the referee felt that he needed to take a point away following the one and only instance of a Norman grabbing Leonardo Santos’s pants. That was complete garbage from an official attempting to show his authority when a warning would have been suffice. It goes without saying that if a point was taken for the shorts grab, then a point should have been removed from Santos for his rake to the eyes.
My overall performance goes right at the top of this list, but it was pretty brutal across the board for almost anyone predicting this event. I have yet to see anyone with a really solid record and if you did end the night with just a couple of losses then most likely you were drawing names from a hat or picking fighters by the colour of their shorts. Bad nights like this one seem to hang in the air like a wretched fart and take a few good events to get over. See the below GIF to visualize how I felt after starting the card 0-5 and ending the night with just 2 wins. >>>>>>>>
There is something about Mario Yamasaki that just rubs me the wrong way. He just seems to want to get involved too much. I do understand taking a point for grabbing the fence is a part of the game, but be consistent about it. There have been numerous accounts of this happening where nothing is said. I just got the feeling from last night that had it been the Brazilian that had grab the fence a warning and nothing more would have followed.
Although it was one of my only 2 wins on the night, the stoppage between Rony Jason and Steven Siler was abysmal. The referee’s job is to protect a fighter, but his job is also to make sure that he doesn’t end the fight prematurely when the fighter isn’t in danger. That was arguably the worst stoppage ever as Siler was clearly hurt, but visibly defending himself with upkicks when the official step in. #whatwereyouthinking
Finally, the heat in the building was said to be over 90 degrees which clearly impacted the fighters. I would even go as far as to say it gave an added advantage to the locals who were more acclimatized to the conditions. For the safety of the fighters and the quality of the product going forward I think the UFC should insure that this not be an issue in future arenas.
It was an entertaining night as a fan and a forgettable one as a predictor so I will call it even, enjoy the break before the next event and get ready to do it all over again. After reviewing my own handy work, my record was deplorable, but there were a number of positives coming out of the information I provided:
- 2 winning parlay/straight bets totalling $480
- I suggested you pass on straight bets on Noad Lahat, Ronny Markes, and Mairbek Taisumov
- I had Godofredo Pepey as my only non-predicted winner bet
- 2 Value bets CB Dollaway & Pepey/Noad Total Rounds Under 2.5
- I went 3 for 6 on my Prop bets
It was far from a good night, but it wasn’t nearly as bad as the record would suggest. Taking all of that into considering, the next pack is on the house for all of those who bought in this time around. It is all about transparency baby. And I’m out!
UFC Fight Night 39
Big Money Bettor, Budget: $500=================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: Shogun Rua to Win by KO/TKO/DQ $2.75 =================================================== Price: $2.75 x Bet: $100 Payout: $275 =================================================== Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: =================================================== Price: $2.91 x Bet: $50 Payout: $145.50 =================================================== Parlay #3 =================================================== Selection 1: Godofredo Pepey/ $2.30 Selection 2: Scott Jorgensen $1.53 =================================================== Price: $3.52 x Bet: $50 Payout: $176 =================================================== Parlay #4 =================================================== Selection 1: Gian Villante $1.93 Selection 2: Rony Jason $1.61 Selection 3: Ronny Markes/ Selection 4: Shogun Rua to Win by KO/TKO/DQ $2.75 =================================================== Price: $13.42 x Bet: $100 Payout: $1342 =================================================== Parlay #5 =================================================== Selection 1: Francimar Barroso $1.91 Selection 2: Thiago Perpetuo $2.05 Selection 3: Fabio Maldonado/ Selection 4: =================================================== Price: $8.76 x Bet: $100 Payout: $876 =================================================== Parlay #6 =================================================== Selection 1: Godofredo Pepey/ Selection 2: Francimar Barroso $1.91 Selection 3: Gian Villante $1.93 Selection 4: Thiago Perpetuo $2.05 =================================================== Price: 17.39 x Bet: 100 Payout: $1739
Recreational Bettor, Budget: $250================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: Shogun Rua to Win by KO/TKO/DQ $2.75 =================================================== Price: $2.75 x Bet: $75 Payout: $206.25 Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: Selection 2: Godofredo Pepey/ $2.30 =================================================== Price: $6.70 x Bet: $50 Payout: $335 Parlay #3 =================================================== Selection 1: Gian Villante $1.93 Selection 2: Scott Jorgensen $1.53 Selection 3: Ronny Markes/ Selection 4: =================================================== Price: $6.45 x Bet: $50 Payout: $322.50 Parlay #4 =================================================== Selection 1: Rony Jason $1.61 Selection 2: Francimar Barroso $1.91 Selection 3: Thiago Perpetuo $2.05 Selection 4: Gian Villante $1.93 =================================================== Price: $12.17 x Bet: $75 Payout: $912.75
For Fun Bettor, Budget: $75=================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: Francimar Barroso $1.91 Selection 2: Gian Villante $1.93 Selection 3: Shogun Rua to Win by KO/TKO/DQ $2.75 =================================================== Price: $10.14 x Bet: $40 Payout: $405.60
==================================================Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: Thiago Perpetuo $2.05 Selection 2: Godofredo Pepey/ $2.30 Selection 3: Rony Jason $1.61 Selection 4: Ronny Markes/ =================================================== Price: $11.92 x Bet: $35 Payout: $417.12
Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns
Francimar Barroso $1.91 vs H
Here I am again, starring at the opening fight of the night and I yet again I’m backing the favourite. In this pairing Barroso is only a slight fav and could possibly become a dog with a little line movement, but most likely not. UFC 171 produced another ‘EPU’ as Robert Whiteford pulled off the upset of Daniel Pineda in the first fight of the night. This theory isn’t perfect and there are enough instances where it doesn’t hold up to see this fight turn my way. Skill-wise, I think Barroso is simply better and takes it at home against a guy debuting in enemy territory. I will be using Barroso in one of 2 ways; either as a single bet or as part of a 2 fight parlay, but knowing what I know I won’t be going all in backing the fav in this position.
Godofredo Pepey $3.36 vs
I am not going to touch this fight as the EPU theory is still applicable here. I am working on another collection of data and this bout falls into it. The last 4 debuting fighters to enter a bout as the favourite against an established roster member have left with their hand raised. That is too small of a sample size to build anything concrete on, but it is something I will pay attention to going forward. Pepey’s has a tonne of flaws, but against a debuting fighter in a hostile environment I think there are much more worthy betting options. Pass.
Thiago Perpetuo $2.05 vs
This line has had some interesting movement back and forth. I picked Robertson in each of his last 2 bouts. I had him to upset Brock Jardine which he did in fine fashion and my pick of him over Pierson played out almost perfectly;
“The biggest concerns for Pierson, besides the potential ring rust, are his cardio and durability. He has a tendency to fade in fights and his chin/ ability to take damage isn’t the greatest. A trend that we have seen with him against Jake Hecht, Lance Benoist and Matt Riddle is a strong start where he gets a couple rounds in his favour and then a slow finish where he is just hanging on. While this has worked in the past, the combination of ring rust and his progressing age suggest that he might not be able to get off to as good a start in this fight and if/when he starts to fade it will cost him. Robertson does have power and his wrestling should be good enough to shutdown and maybe even overwhelm Pierson so my prediction is Kenny Robertson to defeat Sean Pierson by TKO.”
Unfortunately the fight didn’t end the way I wanted it to, but other then that I felt my overview of how the fight would play out was pretty accurate. I haven’t been that impressed with Robertson, but I felt that his opponents were equally as underwhelming so I picked him. Perpetuo proposes enough problems for Robertson with his defensive grappling and power striking that he should get the better of him. Plus, a Brazilian in Brazil in a close fight will more often then not get the nod. I like a decent sized single bet on Thiago. He has a great chance of making my top 3, but I will post that later on.
Jussier Formiga $2.75 vs
This is a bet I would wait on. I have heard from a number of people who are on Jussier and if they bet accordingly this line could move and add some value to Scotty. Scotty is at a crossroads in his career. If he losses this fight it could be all over as far as future relevancy. The same can be said for Formiga. Jorgensen’s style is similar to the 3 guys that have beaten Formiga and I truly think that he will look/perform much better at 125 in his second attempt. Formiga might be able to get a round, especially with his back control, but with the style that Scotty pushes I expect that he will fade. Scotty has stopping power and Jussier has been stopped twice. Either way, I like the American here. I think he is a play for a parlay. He adds some decent pop, especially if he is your third man in.
Ronny Markes $1.17 vs
Not with a 10 foot pole. Markes wins this, but there is no value here and unless Santos catches him coming forward or shows incredible TDD beyond anything he has displayed to date he isn’t worth consideration either.
Diego Brandao $1.29 vs
Diego has a little more value then Markes, but his appeal is limited. Yes he should win this, but he is far from bullet proof here. I could see him going for the finish early, not getting it and then gassing hard for the rest of the fight. He pulled it off versus Pineda, but Chope’s size could be a major problem if Diego is sucking wind. I think there are better options here, but a prop play could be enticing.
Rony Jason $1.61 vs
This fight will go a long way to helping us to determine Jason’s place in the promotion. Siler is a tough dude and if Jason can’t come out on top then he will be nothing more then regular competitor on Brazilian cards and never take that next step up the ranks. He is coming off a massive defeat against Stephens which I think will serve as motivation to put on a better performance. Siler is a solid fighter, but I believe he will struggle with the ground game of Jason and on the feet Rony should be faster and hits harder. The Brazilian crowd will be popping and that should help Jason as well. My play here is coupling Jason up with another favourite like Barrosso or Villante, decent bang for your buck.
Michel Prazeres $3.39 vs
I am not a huge fan of Taisumov at this price. He has more pop then some, but his debut performance didn’t blow me away and while Prazeres is a flawed fighter he is still capable of controlling the action if he can get it down to the ground. I expect better from Mairbek if he is as good as they are saying he is, but you never know how a fighter will react to fighting in a place like Brazil. For my money (and yours) I will use Mairbek sparingly. Possible the best options is to tack him onto a double parlay that you have already played or you can simply walk away and enjoy the fight.
Fabio Maldonado $2.00 vs
This is a fight that I really like. Even though I can envision very likely scenarios where Maldonado takes the fight, I think Villante has a better chance to walk away with the contest then the odds would suggest. Villante hasn’t looked good through 2, but that was the case in Strikeforce as well and then he found his stride and got things rolling in his third fight. First of all Maldonado has deplorable defensive grappling. He has been taken down multiple times and really doesn’t have much off his back. He struggled to create separation against a pretty weak wrestling in Beltran and Villante should be able to produce better results then that. Villante is a decent wrestler and is a close training partner of Chris Weidman so improvements will be happening. He has more then enough skills and has done it before in Strikeforce to spam takedowns and grind out he fight from top position. On the feet he has power and should have a speed advantage. I don’t see him one punch stopping Fabio, but he can pile up the damage against a very hittable opponent. He needs to avoid standing in front of his foe and getting jabbed to death with body shots mixed in, but I think that he offers a lot more then his counter par. I am leaning towards one of 2 options. Either a big single bet on Gian or a doubling him up with another well paying fav or slight dog to take a shot at something big. He hasn’t looked great, but he turns the corner here. Check the parlay section for my final decision.
Leonardo Santos $3.01 vs
Parke needs to keep this fight standing, nothing too complex, just get the job done there. It is much easier said then done though. Santos is a specialist and if Parke gets over aggressive he could walk into a scenario that results with him ending up on the floor. That is not a good thing. That being said, I have been very impressed with his ability to fight his fight. He strikes, he mixes in his wrestling when he wants, and then defends the TDAs thrown his way. I would expect that he is going to use his striking, attack and get out, probably no wrestling until late in the fight if he feels Santos slowing. He needs to pick his spots, which will frustrate Santos if he is forced to shoot from an uncomfortable distance. I think Parke is a playable favourite. He makes for an alright second half of a parlay, but he would be better served on a 3 fight parlay. Use him sparingly though because there are better paying options and his opponent has a route to victory that is not that far fetched.
Cezar Ferreira $1.50 vs
I was very impressed with what CB showed in his last fight and felt he was robbed of a win against a top 15 ranked opponent. Conversely, I felt that Ferreira was pretty average in his last performance. Mutante is working out of the Blackzilian camp, but this is the first time in competition he will fight an American trained wrestler which can be a difficult task. CB is pretty solid on the mat and I would think he has the skills to take Mutante down, especially when he throws some of his ill advised capoeira kicks if they miss. I might have over sold CB’s striking a little in my video, but like I said I was impressed with what he brought in his last fight and he could be turning a corner. Sometimes guys take a little while to get it going. Mutante is a good striker, but the manner in which he has been hurt before in a couple of different fights is a bit of a concern. He seems to come forward and let his defensive work laps a bit. Additionally, the way he was shooting against Sarafian late doesn’t give a lot of confidence when he was suppose to be the superior striker. I like a decent sized bet on Dollaway. Mutante’s 3 wins have all come over other TUF Brazil guys, this is his first real step up to the main roster of fighters and I’ll play the dog again, just like I did when CB fought Sarafian.
Shogun Rua $1.45 vs
I took Dan in the last fight and he pulled the upset. I also made the mistake in this prediction of saying he was off TRT, which he is not. This will be the last time. Nonetheless, his age is starting to show. He got knocked out last fight which potentially shows a loss of one of his key weapons- his chin. TRT Vitor is a beast and stopped him, can Shogun replicate it? He just put down Te Huna, but this is a step up in fighter or at least it should be. Shogun’s chin appears to be still intact and he survived the H-bomb the first time around. Henderson’s lack of speed and predictability could be preventing him from connecting with his money maker and that along with his possible faltering chin takes away what makes Dan effective. Dan got going early in his last fight and road that success to the win, but he was close to be stopped several times. He is a couple years older, with a knee surgery added in and I can see him not being able to withstand a late charge. I also look at the trend for rematches ending early and that could hold true here, if either guys connects, but I like Shogun to land a big shot within the first 2 rounds and end the fight. The odds aren’t great, especially considering that Shogun is far from perfect. I think betting on Rua as part of a parlay is the only way to play this fight straight up, but there is a prop that I really like that will be posted in the Prop section and probably the value list.
Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)
1. Ronny Markes $1.17
3. Rony Jason $1.61
4. Francimar Barroso $1.91
6. Shogun Rua $1.45
8. Thiago Perpetuo $2.05
9. Scott Jorgensen $1.53
Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)
|1.||Shogun Rua to Win by KO/TKO/DQ||$2.75||Whether it happens because of a failing chin or exhaustion, I think that Shogun is going to knock Dan out and he will have plenty of opportunities to do so.|
|2.||Thiago Perpetuo||$2.05||I have been on Robertson in his last 2 fights, but that had just as much to do with his opponent as it did him. I don’t think he does enough here to get the ‘W’.|
|3.||$1.93||Any time you can get even money playing against Fabio it is worth some serious consideration. Villante should be drilling his wrestling with one of the best in preparation for this bout.|
|4.||Godofredo Pepey/||$2.30||Both men have finishing skills and the manner in which Pepey’s chin has utterly failed him in each of his last 2 bouts suggest it could again here.|
|5.||$2.91||A lot of people like to dump on Dollaway, but he looked great in his last bout and I haven’t been impressed with Mutante. For the most part he has faced a slight step above region competition during his run in the UFC and just getting by (Santos sub aside).|
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
- Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
- I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.
Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)
|1.||Godofredo Pepey||$3.36||I am not backing Pepey to win based on what I have seen inside the cage, but there are some intangibles with a young debuting American fighter in Brazil. I won’t be betting on Lahat, but this is an EPU warning so take a risk with Pepey if you have the extra cash.|
The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.
Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.
Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.
The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.
There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.
Shogun Rua to Win by KO/TKO/DQ $2.75- This is the one I prefer because it brings Dan’s gas tank into play. Dan was incredibly close to getting finished late in the first meeting simply because he was gassed. That was a couple of years ago and he has shown signs of slowing in less grueling bouts then this one could be. Either Shogun lands early and stops him or overwhelms him late. The knockout is a very enticing play here.