UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Nogueira- Bet Pack

 Scott Johnson

UFC Fight Night 39

Parlay Breakdowns

Big Money Bettor, Budget: $500

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Roy Nelson to Win by Knockout $2.40
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Price: $2.40 x Bet: $100
Payout: $240
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Alan Omer $3.46
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Price: $3.46 x Bet: $100
Payout: $346
 
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Parlay #3
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Selection 1: Roy Nelson to Win by Knockout $2.40
Selection 2: Rani Yahya $1.60
Selection 3: John Howard/
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Price: $5.76 x Bet: $75
Payout: $432
 
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Parlay #4
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Selection 1: Clay Guida to Win by Decision $2.10
Selection 2:
Selection 3: Thales Leites/
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Price: $5.90 x Bet: $75
Payout: $422.50
 
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Parlay #5
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Selection 1:
Selection 2: Thales Leites/
Selection 3: Clay Guida to Win by Decision $2.10
Selection 4: Rani Yahya/
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Price: $12.74 x Bet: $75
Payout: $955.50
 
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Parlay #6
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Selection 1: Alan Omer $3.46
Selection 2: Jared Rosholt $1.48
Selection 3: Ramsey Nijem/
Selection 4: John Howard/
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Price: $11.83 x Bet: $75
Payout: $887.25

Recreational Bettor, Budget: $200

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Clay Guida to Win by Decision $2.10
Selection 2: Roy Nelson to Win by Knockout $2.40
Selection 3: Ramsey Nijem/
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Price: $7.77 x Bet: $50
Payout: $388.50
 
Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Alan Omer $3.46
Selection 2: Thales Leites/
Selection 3: John Howard/
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Price: $8.57 x Bet: $50
Payout: $428.50
 
Parlay #3
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Selection 1: Clay Guida to Win by Decision $2.10
Selection 2: Rani Yahya $1.60
Selection 3: Thales Leites/
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Price: $5.55 x Bet: $50
Payout: $277.50
 
Parlay #4
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Selection 1:
Selection 2: Clay Guida $1.80
Selection 3: Rani Yahya $1.60
Selection 4: Thales Leites/
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Price: $8.08 x Bet: $50
Payout: $404
 
 

For Fun Bettor, Budget: $50

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Rani Yahya/
Selection 2: Clay Guida to Win by Decision $2.10
Selection 3: Roy Nelson to Win by Knockout $2.40
Selection 4: John Howard/
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Price: $18.53 x Bet:$25
Payout: $463.25
 

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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Alan Omer $3.46
Selection 2: Rani Yahya/
Selection 3: Thales Leites/
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Price: $13.99 x Bet: $25
Payout: $349.75
 

Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns

*** The Breakdowns will be shorter simply because Dana White and co felt that we needed 3 cards in the span of 9 days, but the work is still there its just more to the point.

Jim Alers $1.43 vs Alan Omer $3.46

Opening fight of the night and we (me and possibly you) are on the dog. The EPU will be put to the test and should come through based on the fact that we have 2 debuting fighters kick starting the show. I know its far from a science, but go back and look at the last ridiculous amount of cards and you will see that this type of scenario has been ripe for upsets. Plus, I have seen enough footage of Alers to see that he makes enough mistakes and Omer is more then capable of capitalizing. With the limited number of upset picks on this card I will be looking at hitting this one hard on a singles bet.

Chris Camozzi $1.76 vs Andrew Craig $2.25

Fight #2, upset pick #2. I expect that this one is going to be tight and could possible go to a split. Camozzi doesn’t do anything that stands out, he is durable and grind guys down. He has struggles with faster guys and that is what Craig is. Ring was beating him to the punch but slowed and so was Catone, but got cut and doc stopped. I think Craig comes back better from his defeat, where it looked like he was a little over confident. Much like the opener, this fight should be a sizeable singles bet as well.

Thales Leites $1.29 vs

Leites is simply better at what Smith does well. Neither guy has stellar cardio, so I don’t expect to see Smith overtaking Leites late if he does slow down. In fact I anticipate that Leites will have finished the fight or will still be able to control the action similar to the final frame versus Herman. The price isn’t that enticing and as we saw on the last card the risk of looking at heavy favs as a serious option so I will pass on Leites even though I am confident he walks away with it.

Rani Yahya $1.60 vs

This line is a little more interesting. Bedford is a great fighter when he can bully his opponent, like he did against the under-sized Gaudinot and the short on skill Vinicius. Unfortunately he is incredibly vulnerable to strong grapplers. He was taken out by a short-notice Caraway via submission and lost the opening rounds prior to the tap. Yahya is going back to BW and if the cut goes well, the combination of his technique and either added physical advantage or at least not having to face physically larger men will make him a handful on the mat. The manner in which he smothered Hirota has to be a concern for Bedford, but if Johnny can defend and land some shots he could turn it in his favour. There is also the fear of Rani gassing late and Bedford mounting a comeback, but that isn’t a scenario you want to pin your wagon to. Long story short, Bedford is incredibly vulnerable to what Rani does best and at $1.60 I like Yahya as part of a main parlay of either 2 or 3.

Jared Rosholt $1.48 vs Daniel Omielanczuk $2.98

I was kind of hoping that this line would be a little bit closer, but its not, I will deal. Neither guy looked spectacular in their debuts, but I am banking on Rosholt’s wrestling to carry the day here. He struggled to find an opening for his takedowns against a very fast opponent, but I don’t see that being an issue with Omielanczuk. If Rosholt gets on top I see him keeping his opponent there and either grinding him to a decision or possibly finishing it when he gets tired. For betting purposes I like Jared as a parlay contributor, most likely on the end of a 3 fight bet.

Ramsey Nijem $2.84 vs

Ramsey looked better in his last fight and I had to take a long hard look at him here, especially against a relatively young fighter with less then 2 minutes of Octagon experience. I felt that his performance versus Edwards was more of a product of his opponent’s lack of a striking threat then Nijem making massive strides. I am not saying he hasn’t improved, but I think that Dariush will help to bring back some of the big defensive issues that exist. If Nijem can mount some solid top control on the mat that could also be a solid weapon, but Dariush is pretty talented on the floor and I anticipate that he will get the better of the action or at the very least make going to the floor something that Ramsey doesn’t want to do. Based on the name alone the line might move if some public money comes in on the more known fighter in Nijem, so wait on this one a bit before using him in a parlay bet.

John Howard $4.00 vs

Similar to Leites, LaFlare wins this fight but doesn’t offer that much from a betting perspective. The better option here might be a prop bet on the over, but outside of that I see LaFlare as nothing more then a throw in for parlay bet- with limited value, but limit risk based simply on what both men bring to the cage.

Clay Guida $1.80 vs T

Unfortunately I just don’t see this one being very entertaining. I expect that Guida is going to evade as much as possible early and force Kawajiri to shoot from the outside and wear himself out chasing. After that look for Guida to try and get on top and ride the fight out. If Clay comes with his traditional approach, from days of old, he could use his pace to get the better of Crusher, which is a possibility. For Tatsuya, if he can get back control he could be in good shape, but that isn’t easy against Clay. Guida will be one of my bigger parlay bets and probably teamed up with Rani Yahya and or one more. I also like the over here.

Minotauro Nogueira $2.38 vs

This fight has a wide range of odds set for it, but the consensus is that Roy is the fav. Many of the diehards are on Nog, but from my perspective he is tailor-made for Roy. He is much slower then many men that Roy has knocked out and as a result he is very hittable. A lot of people are saying that Nelson has to end this fight inside one or he is done, but if you look back to the Cro Cop fight he did fairly well going into the third round prior to the finish. I think he has the ability to score points early and could get 3 in the bag with his pressure if he doesn’t score the knockout, which I expect that he will. Either way I like Roy here, he has a solid number and is very playable, most likely in a parlay bet of 2 or 3.

 


 

Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1.

2. Thales Leites $1.29

3. Clay Guida $1.80

4.

5.

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6. Jared Rosholt $1.48

7. Rani Yahya $1.60

8. Andrew Craig $2.25

9. Alan Omer $3.46


 

Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. Roy Nelson to Win by Knockout $2.40 If Nelson is the fav, the knockout is a real possibility. Hit it hard, because Roy will.
2. Alan Omer $3.46 EPU in play. Omer had a larger period of inactivity, which is an issue, but I see enough holes in his opponent’s game for him to capitalize.
3. Andrew Craig $2.25 Craig will stick and move, and outwork Camozzi while using his speed.
4. Clay Guida to Win by Decision $2.10 I just don’t see Clay winning this fight any other way.
5. Rani Yahya $1.60 Yahya could pull the submission off, but he could also just control his way to a decision. So I will take him straight up here.

The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

  • Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
  • I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.

Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. N/A
2.
3.
4.
5.

The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.

Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.

Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.

The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.

There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.


Prop Bets-

Chris Camozzi/ Andrew Craig Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.48- With a combined 17 decisions in 37 fights this bout is a candidate for a decision. They have also gone the distance 8 times in their combined UFC run. Neither guys has massive finishing numbers, especially at this level. Play the Over.

Thales Leites/

Rani Yahya/

Ramsey Nijem/

John Howard/

Clay Guida to Win by Decision $2.10- I don’t see Guida finishing this fight and this is a better option then simply playing for the Over. Guida jukes and jives his way to an unpopular decision, if Kawajiri doesn’t sub him first. 😉

Roy Nelson to Win by Knockout $2.40- When Nelson is in a fight, especially as a favourite then there is a good chance of him scoring the knockout, because he hasn’t submitted anyone since 2006 and isn’t exactly a point fighter. Nog’s chin was once made of stone, but it has appeared to crack with age. Nelson drops the hammer.