UFC Fight Night 93: Arlovski vs Barnett- ‘The Taming of the Pitbull’
Even on the downside of their respective careers, former World Champions Josh Barnett and Andrei Arlovski put on an exciting show to headline the Octagon’s latest trip to Germany. Multi-time title challenger Alexander Gustafsson got back on track with a win and fellow 205-pound contender Ryan Bader scored a highlight reel knockout. The judging put up some questionable scores on the prelims and brewed up at least one clear case of hometown cooking in the final preliminary bout of the night. I went 6-4 for the second consecutive show, with my Bronze Parlay cashing in. Check out all of the details below along with my future fights for key fighters coming out of Hamburg.Josh Barnett vs Winner of Werdum/Browne
If Barnett is going to make a run he has to do it now. I would like to see him get another high profile fight against either Werdum or Browne. Based on Werdum’s performance against Miocic, I don’t want to see him fighting for the title just yet. If Browne wins, that sets up a rematch of a bout that ended pretty quickly the first time around. The goal is to create contenders and this scenario certainly would do that.Andrei Arlovski vs Gabriel Gonzaga
With a trio of stoppage losses, Arlovski could be at the end. The UFC will most likely keep him employed for another fight simply because he has name value and is capable of putting on exciting fights. Gonzaga is in a similar position, with the finishes starting to pile up. Let these two go at it, with the winner earning a much needed with and sticking around on the big stage.Alexander Gustafsson vs OSP
It wasn’t pretty, but Gus needed a win in the worst way. I am not 100% ready to toss him back into the upper echelon just yet. The big Swede has had a hellacious schedule of late and deserves an opportunity to rebuild his confidence. OSP is not an easy opponent, but he certainly isn’t part of the top tier. If Ovince gets by Manuwa next, let’s set this fight up.Jan Blachowicz vs Ed Herman
Blachowicz was holding his own early, but faltered when Gustafsson changed gears and started to wrestle. Herman is an action fighter and would most likely oblige Jan on the feet for a pretty fun scrap.Ryan Bader vs Shogun Rua
I will take a similar approach for Bader as I did with Gus. Bader built a lot of momentum before “Rumble” obliterated him in timely fashion. “Darth” needs to rebuild his position at 205, but he already faced several of the other Top 10 guys in the division. If he gets by Shogun, it’s a big name added to the list and I would like the UFC to set up a rematch between Bader and Jones to help bring the former Champion back into competition.Ilir Latifi vs Jimi Manuwa
Latifi had his moments, but it wasn’t enough and then got violently knocked out. Latifi is still a dangerous fight for a large portion of the division. A fight with Manuwa could be a pretty solid European Fight card bout. I don’t see that one ending without some violence.Nick Hein vs Scott Holtzman
Hein didn’t look as sharp as I expected, but Bang’s power is certainly something that could have kept him from pushing the envelope. Holtzman is coming off of a solid win and matches up nicely with the German.Ashlee Evans-Smith vs Winner of Eye/Correia
AES looked very strong against an undersized and debuting fighter. Taking on the winner of UFC 203’s Eye/ Correia bout would offer a nice step up in competition. None of these girls will be challenging (again for Correia) for the title anytime soon. That doesn’t mean we can’t have some fun fights as they look to build their records.Taylor Lapilus vs Felipe Arantes
Lapilus looked very good on the feet against a grappler. Arantes presents a nice blend of solid striking and capable ground fighting. Both guys are looking to get their shot at an opponent in the Top 15. The winner of this pairing would get a nice push towards that goal.Rustam Khabilov vs Joseph Duffy
Khabilov has fallen a long way after many perceived him as the next big Russian contender. This performance was anything but earth-shattering, but 3-fight winning streak should get him a noteworthy fight. Duffy lost some of his shine after the Poirier loss, but he is coming off a win and would offer a nice stylistic battle for Rustam. Fight Pass Prelim headliner.Final Thoughts
Barnett/Arlovski was an exciting fight, with both men going for it from the start. That isn’t always the case with veteran fighters nearing the end of their careers. The rest of the card was a little hit and miss, with a few solid scraps mixed in with some less than exciting matchups. Bader and Gus picking up wins gets a pair of the division’s top fighters back on track. It wouldn’t surprise me to see these two paired up in the not too distant future. The Bet Pack is posted below with a better result than the 6-4 record would suggest. Unfortunately, back to back 6-4 records leave a bit of a bad taste in my mouth. UFC 203 and the Heavyweight title is on deck, time to get to work.
Selection 1: Ilir Latifi +195
Selection 2: Jim Wallhead -115
Selection 3: Leandro Issa +138
Price: +1213 x Bet: 7 units
Payout: 84.88 units
Selection 1: Jack Hermansson +100
Selection 2: Jarjis Danho -106
Selection 3: Rustam Khabilov to Win by Decision -145
Selection 4: Andrei Arlovski/Josh Barnett Total Rounds Over 1.5 -132
Price: +494 x Bet: 7 units
Payout: 34.58 units
Selection 1: Nicolas Dalby to Win by Decision +145
Selection 2: Christian Colombo/Jarjis Danho Total Rounds Under 1.5 +130
Selection 3: Jim Wallhead -115
Selection 4: Nick Hein -212
Price: +1450 x Bet: 6 units
Payout: 87.03 units
Selection 1: Andrei Arlovski/Josh Barnett Total Rounds Over 1.5 -132
Selection 2: Ashlee Evans-Smith/Veronica Macedo Total Rounds Under 2.5 +160
Selection 3: Leandro Issa +138
Selection 4: Jack Hermansson +100
Price: +2075 x Bet: 5 units
Payout: 103.76 units
Selection 1: Nicolas Dalby to Win by Decision +145
Selection 2: Ilir Latifi +195
Selection 3: Alexander Gustafsson/Jan Blachowicz Total Rounds Over 2.5 +115
Price: +1454 x Bet: 6 units
Payout: 87.23 units
When its broke, or at least not paying out like it should be, its time to fix it. Instead of putting together Parlays based on what type of bettor you might be, we are going to rank each parlay/ single bet based on 3 things- Value, Risk, and Confidence. It will be up to you to decide which plays you feel like making and which ones you are going to pass on. Keep in mind this is gambling- there is massive risk involved any time you lay money on the line and with the unpredictability of a sport like MMA it only makes it tougher. All we can do is prepare ourselves to the fullest extend and make bets that we feel good about. Let’s make some money! GOLD- Bets posted in this section will have a solid payout, involve moderate risk, but my confidence level will be high. Single bets and 2-3 fight parlays, potentially the odd prop bet. SILVER- Bets posted in this section will have a solid to slightly higher payout, but will involved a little more risk and while I am confident enough to post these bets, I do see where we could go wrong. Single bets, 3-4 fight parlays and prop bets. More Underdogs involved. BRONZE- Bets posted in this section will normally have the highest payouts, but also involve the most risk. Major Underdogs, larger parlays, and higher risk prop bets. WILDCARD- This section will include bets only to be made if you have some extra cash. Most posts in this section will be long shots to hit or at least have a lot of working parts involved, but if they do the win the payout will be significant. Betting Units “What is a unit?”A popular term in sports betting is “unit” and below I will explain what bettors mean they refer to a unit, and examples of it being used. A “unit” in sports betting is a measurement of the size of someone’s bet. Because everyone has different sized bankrolls for sports betting, using the term unit is a way for us to show your profit or loss in universal terms. Someone who is betting $10,000 per bet and is up $18,000 on the season isn’t nearly as impressive as someone who bets $10 per bet and is up $180 on the season. Using units gives us a tool to keep track of profits and losses without the dollar value. Because basic sports betting strategy tells us that you should be betting somewhere between 1-5% of your bankroll on each wager, it is generally accepted that a unit is equal to approximately 1% of your bankroll. Nothing is set on stone with this, but that is an easy way to calculate a single unit. Using the above formula, someone who has a $1,000 bankroll would be betting $10 per unit, while someone with a $50,000 bankroll would be betting $500 per unit. Using the bankroll management strategy that recommends 1-5% of your bankroll on each bet you would essentially want to bet between 1-5 “units”. Many sports handicappers will release their plays with units, with the most common being 1-5 units or sometimes 1-7 units. The 1,2, and 3 unit plays are more of the average plays, while the 4, 5 and sometimes 6 and 7 unit plays are the big plays where the handicapper feels they have found a lot of value on a play. If a handicapper released a 5 unit play and you had a $1,000 sports betting bankroll you would be risking 5% (5 units) or $50 on the play.
When its broke, or at least not paying out like it should be, its time to fix it. Instead of putting together Parlays based on what type of bettor you might be, we are going to rank each parlay/ single bet based on 3 things- Value, Risk, and Confidence. It will be up to you to decide which plays you feel like making and which ones you are going to pass on.
Keep in mind this is gambling- there is massive risk involved any time you lay money on the line and with the unpredictability of a sport like MMA it only makes it tougher. All we can do is prepare ourselves to the fullest extend and make bets that we feel good about. Let’s make some money!
GOLD- Bets posted in this section will have a solid payout, involve moderate risk, but my confidence level will be high. Single bets and 2-3 fight parlays, potentially the odd prop bet.
SILVER- Bets posted in this section will have a solid to slightly higher payout, but will involved a little more risk and while I am confident enough to post these bets, I do see where we could go wrong. Single bets, 3-4 fight parlays and prop bets. More Underdogs involved.
BRONZE- Bets posted in this section will normally have the highest payouts, but also involve the most risk. Major Underdogs, larger parlays, and higher risk prop bets.
WILDCARD- This section will include bets only to be made if you have some extra cash. Most posts in this section will be long shots to hit or at least have a lot of working parts involved, but if they do the win the payout will be significant.
“What is a unit?”A popular term in sports betting is “unit” and below I will explain what bettors mean they refer to a unit, and examples of it being used.
A “unit” in sports betting is a measurement of the size of someone’s bet. Because everyone has different sized bankrolls for sports betting, using the term unit is a way for us to show your profit or loss in universal terms.
Someone who is betting $10,000 per bet and is up $18,000 on the season isn’t nearly as impressive as someone who bets $10 per bet and is up $180 on the season. Using units gives us a tool to keep track of profits and losses without the dollar value.
Because basic sports betting strategy tells us that you should be betting somewhere between 1-5% of your bankroll on each wager, it is generally accepted that a unit is equal to approximately 1% of your bankroll. Nothing is set on stone with this, but that is an easy way to calculate a single unit.
Using the above formula, someone who has a $1,000 bankroll would be betting $10 per unit, while someone with a $50,000 bankroll would be betting $500 per unit.
Using the bankroll management strategy that recommends 1-5% of your bankroll on each bet you would essentially want to bet between 1-5 “units”.
Many sports handicappers will release their plays with units, with the most common being 1-5 units or sometimes 1-7 units. The 1,2, and 3 unit plays are more of the average plays, while the 4, 5 and sometimes 6 and 7 unit plays are the big plays where the handicapper feels they have found a lot of value on a play.
If a handicapper released a 5 unit play and you had a $1,000 sports betting bankroll you would be risking 5% (5 units) or $50 on the play.
=================================================== Kamikaze =================================================== Fighter 1: Josh Barnett $9700 Fighter 2: Nick Hein $10500 Fighter 3: Jim Wallhead $9300 Fighter 4: Ashlee Evans-Smith $9900 Fighter 5: Jarjis Danho $10400 =================================================== Salary Remaining: =================================================== Overdrive =================================================== Fighter 1: Ilir Latifi $9100 Fighter 2: Nicolas Dalby $11000 Fighter 3: Leandro Issa $9400 Fighter 4: Jack Hermansson $9800 Fighter 5: Rustam Khabilov $10200 =================================================== Salary Remaining:
Andrei Arlovski +135 vs Josh Barnett -142
This is a nice throwback fight that probably would have been better a number of years ago, but with the state of the division the winner regains some relevancy quickly. Arlovski is dangerous, but his performance against Mir was anything but impressive. Additionally, he is coming off of a pair of knockout losses which will most likely diminish the confidence that he had been riding since returning to the UFC. Barnett isn’t the fighter he use to be and his recent losses have shown some chinks in his armour. That being said, his win over Nelson was a solid performance. His use of clinch fighting and takedowns should wear AA down. Arlovski is willing to throw hands, but he is equally as willing to sit back and let the action come to him. What Barnett does at distance isn’t always pretty, but he throws some decent volume and has some pop in his strikes. Either he cracks Andrei with something and hurts him or simply outworks for the duration of the fight. Gold Parlay for the Warmaster!
We’ve got an even fantasy line here with both set at $9700. That might be a little concerning considering we have seen recent betting favourites posted as Fantasy dogs and then the fight play out like the Fantasy line indicated it would. I still like Barnett here. Over 5 rounds against Nelson he landed 146 strikes. That is huge for a HW. If Andrei starts to slow down like he did against Mir, that total is certainly achievable. Add in a couple of takedowns and a decision will produce some serious points. Additionally, Barnett has enough power to exploit the chin of the Belorussian and he has the submission skills to threaten on the mat. Multiple ways to finish and the ability to compile some serious points over 5 rounds for less than $10000? Sign me up. Team Kamikaze.
Alexander Gustafsson -625 vs Jan Blachowicz +559
I actually saw a Paid Betting site pushing a parlay of Gus and Khabilov as their premium Free play. How generous of them. Gus should win this fight, but remember he is coming off of a title fight loss- 2 actually in recent fights. We all know how dangerous that can be. Clearly, this is a No Play here. I will look at a prop options.
At $12500, Gus has to be one of the biggest Fantasy Favs in recent memory. I considered playing him and it is doable with the dog picks I have available, but I felt there are better options available. Pass.
Ilir Latifi +195 vs Ryan Bader -205
Taking a risk here, but I like it. Latifi hits like a mack truck, is physically strong, and a sound wrestler. Bader likes to rely on his wrestling to overcome an opponent that is dangerous to stand with. I don’t know if that will be an option against Latifi. People like to point to Bader as a much more technical striker. He has made sizeable improvements, but he is also far more cautious to the point of hurting his offensive output. Latifi got lit up by Mousasi’s jab, but Bader won’t be nearly as willing to sit down and trade with Ilir. I expect to see Bader moving around the outside, trying to avoid trading, throwing single strikes, while Latifi pushes forward looking to land hammers. Look for Bader to try and throw kicks and Latifi either catching them and countering or just straight up countering with the right hand. I don’t like the way Bader tends to fold up shop when the leather starts flying and Latifi is fully capable of reproducing that type of scenario. The line push upwards to +207, but has been trending down since. Bader is easily the best opponent that Latifi has faced to date- Silver Parlay.
Latifi is not scoring you points with volume. He is going to do it with face melting power or possibly picking up a submission win. Bader has been finished in all 5 of his career losses and the hulking Swede has finished 4 of his 5 UFC wins in the opening round. He is darn affordable for his finishing capabilities and most people will be overlooking Latifi as a legit threat against the better known Bader. Team Overdrive.
Nick Hein -212 vs Tae Hyun Bang +206
Bang likes to well…bang. He knocks guys out. Hard. Unfortunately, if he doesn’t score the finish he isn’t nearly as effective. He likes to sit back and counter which can help him to be a little less predictable in his pursuit of the finish, but it can also put him way behind on the scorecards if he doesn’t land. Hein needs to avoid that power and if he does the path to victory should be pretty simple. Additionally, the TDD of THB is horrid. Very bad. If Hein elects to go that route he would have no issue grounding Bang for the entire fight and either taking a decision or top position finish. The South Korean’s cardio is also below average, so once he begins to fade things can get pretty ugly. Hein needs to be careful early, but he has multiple avenues to victory here. Hein joins the Gold Parlay.
Hein has some decent power in his hands and can do work on the mat. Bang’s chin has held up, but he has been hurt in fights. He has also been submitted twice. A finish will score us some points. If we don’t get an early stoppage, look for Hein to land some decent volume against a defensively flawed striker. Bang has also given up a lot of takedowns in his UFC run, so Hein will add to his totals on the mat as well. A late finish could offer a nice mixture of output and finishing points. At 45.1 average points and 8 decision wins compared to 5 finishes, Hein won’t be an above average pick- that further adds to his value. Team Kamikaze.
Jessin Ayari +108 vs Jim Wallhead -115
Wallhead opened around the -150 mark and has steadily worked his way down. Some sites have this fight close to even, others have the Brit around -125. The experience factor is big for Wallhead and the guy has decent power for the division. Ayari really hasn’t impressed me. Against Lebout, he fought a very passive fight and let his opponent dictate the pace. I have seen other instance of him willingly backtracking. Not good against a more experienced and dangerous opponent. Ayari is at home, but I don’t think that will be enough to save him here. Wallhead pushes the pace and either stops him or takes a wide decision. I considered putting Wallhead in my Gold parlay, but I opted for more established fighters in my top play. Silver parlay, possible spot in a secondary Gold parlay.
I have Wallhead on Team Kamikaze, but this is an example of the Betting favourite being a fantasy dog. Wallhead has huge finishing numbers across the board and Ayari has been stopped in all 3 of his defeat. Wallhead has an excellent chance to make it 4 and he won’t be drawing in a tonne of frontline attention as an injury replacement making his debut.
Nicolas Dalby -123 vs Peter Sobotta +118
This line was almost even and Dalby was the dog for a brief time. It doesn’t shock me that he is now the favourite. Dalby’s biggest issues hav been the power of previous opponents magnifying the defensive issues in his striking. He carries a decent pace, but he gets hit quite a bit when his opponent pushes the issue. Sobotta isn’t a high volume striker and he doesn’t have a tonne of power either. This should give Dalby a sizeable edge during the striking exchanges, especially on the strength of his kicks. Additionally, Sobotta’s resurgence has been on the strength of his wrestling/grappling, but with Dalby’s TDD that will limit his success in that area. Dalby just does more and outworks the German. Gold play.
I normally wouldn’t pay $11000 for Dalby, but after filling out the first 4 spots on team Overdrive, I had the cash to spend and he was the best option of all the fighters left unplayed over my 2 teams. Dalby has 7-finishes and Sobotta has only been stopped twice. He is coming off of a body kick TKO loss which could open the floodgates to more finishes. I expect this fight to go the distance, but with Dalby averaging over 4 strikes landed per minute and picking up close to 3 TDs per fight he has some decent scoring potential. With most of the prelim fights on the card featuring at least 1 debuting fighter, there is a level of uncertainty in those fights that doesn’t exist in this one. I like Dalby here and as a heavy fantasy fav I like betting on him that much more.
Ashlee Evans-Smith -240 vs Veronica Macedo +231
AES has underachieved in the UFC in an odd way. Looked decent, got subbed. Looked second-best, won a decision. Against Macedo, she should be capable of putting together her best performance to date or her UFC days are numbers. Despite having similar pro fights, AES has been fighting for a much longer time. Macedo turned pro in March and has fought a lot in that span, but that doesn’t exactly do well for a fighter’s development. In the footage that I have seen, she struggles staying off her back. She can attack from the position, but against a bigger fighter with a wrestling background- that isn’t a good combination. AES made noticeable improvements in her striking, so she could very well use her wrestling in reverse to keep the fight standing and win it there. Unless Macedo shows me something I didn’t see in her other footage, AES takes this fight- 4th leg of the Gold Parlay.
I like this play a lot here. AES is bigger and she likes to break girls down on the mat and on the clinch. For a relative neophyte to MMA, that can be a lot to deal with. Evans-Smith has a pair of wins by TKO- 50% of her pro total. So she knows how to finish. I think that is the case here. She has finishing potential, along with takedowns galore and the edge in striking- those are all point producing areas. She is also a woman which will get her overlooked by many and her last 2 performance aren’t exactly ringing endorsements. Unique points? She’s got them. Team Kamikaze.
Leandro Issa +138 vs Taylor Lapilus -147
I was honestly expecting the line to be flipped here. Issa isn’t a great wrestler, but he is a fantastic grappler. Lapilus was doing fine against Perez, but as soon as the fight hit the mat he seemed lost. He was stuck on his back, offering very little. Lapilus comes from the French MMA scene where strikes aren’t allowed on the mat and overall its still a developing aspect of the game. Issa was able to get Alcantara on the mat, but the impact of wrangling with the very large and skilled BJJ black belt wore him out. I don’t forsee the same effect here. Lapilus has decent striking, but Issa can take a lot of punishment and the Frenchman tend to revert to his grappling as well. Once Issa gets in close and initiates the tie up, Taylor will engage instead of separating. That should open the door for Issa to work his way to top position. Either a submission win over a decision in the books for Issa. I’ve got him in my Silver section.
Issa has 9 wins by submission, including 2 in the UFC. Subbing Ulka is no easy feat and while Lapilus has never bee subbed, he also has never faced an opponent on this level when it comes to grappling. Issa isn’t going to put up a pile of output points, but if he exploits the gap in ground skills the submission will be there. Team Overdrive
Christian Colombo -102 vs Jarjis Danho -106
Heavyweights with a combined 1 UFC fight. Interesting. Danho looked like a hot mess after the first couple of minutes of his debut. Colombo has 1 fight since 2013. I like the more active fighter here with his UFC debut under his belt. He took some sizeable punishment in his last fight and stuck around. If Danho can get this fight to the floor or at the least bully Colombo in the clinch, his size and raw power will be a lot for the new guy to deal with. A prop bet is certainly in the works here and I’ve got Jarjis in the Bronze parlay.
Danho throws bombs and isn’t looking for the decision so backing him as a Fantasy bet is the way to go. At $10400, he is little more pricey than the betting line would indicate, but I’ll take it. Colombo couldn’t finish either of the experienced vets he beat, with most of his stoppage wins coming over relatively new fighters. This fight isn’t going the distance, so I will back the slightly more battle tested and active fighter. He folds up when the “Man Mountain” opens up. Team Kamikaze.
Jack Hermansson +100 vs Scott Askham -106
I haven’t been all that impressed with Askham and we have found out that stopping Dempsey isn’t that big of a deal. Hermansson is a solid vet and knows how to stay active. He keeps picking away at his opponent with a constant barrage of half power strikes, mixed in with power shots. His movement should create issues for Askham who wants to sit down and throw bombs. My biggest concern is that the Brit uses his size to back Hermansson into the cage and use a similar gameplan to the one that has been used against him in the past. If this bout goes the distance it could end up in a split with both guys having solid cases for winning the fight. I will take the fighter who will land more strikes and be more active. I gave some thought to “Joker” in the Silver parlay, but considering how close this bout could be I will knock him down to the Bronze play.
Volume is going to be the key here. Look for Hermansson to land between 70-90 significant strikes and with Askham’s TDD being a little questionable we could see a completion or 2 from the Swede. Jack does have a solid finishing rate with 8 knockouts and 4 submissions, but Askham is going to be tough to put away. The lack of name value for Hermy is going to help our case here and his slightly below $10000 price tag opens up a few bucks for other purchases. Team Overdrive.
Leandro Silva +348 vs Rustam Khabilov -333
The Russian has fallen from headliner to prelim mainstay. Interesting. The line isn’t great here and won’t draw a side bet from me even though I expect Khabilov to take this with relative ease- especially in rounds 2 and 3. I will be more apt to look at a prop bet here. No Play.
All indications are that Khabilov will be better at the key elements that Silva usually relies on. One of the keys to this play is the price tag on Rusty. He is costing you just $10200, which could be an indication of much closer this fight will be than most expect it to be. I expect to see Khabilov scoring some decent takedown numbers and picking up most of his volume on the mat. His finishing rate isn’t overwhelming and Silva has never been put away, but if Khabilov can wear him down early a late stoppage could materialize. With both team’s fully posted, I feel much stronger about Team Kamikaze then Overdrive. Overdrive is built around remaining diverse and trying to find points where most won’t look. Outside of Latifi and potentially Issa, I wouldn’t be shocked to see a number of decision wins on this team- not the result we are looking for. Play Kamikaze as your big play, only use Team Overdrive as a backup option.
1. Rustam Khabilov -333
2. Nick Hein -212
3. Ashlee Evans-Smith -240
4. Alexander Gustafsson -625
5. Nicolas Dalby -123
6. Josh Barnett -142
7. Jim Wallhead -115
8. Ilir Latifi +195
9. Jack Hermansson +100
10. Jarjis Danho -106
11. Leandro Issa +138
1. Nicolas Dalby -123
2. Jim Wallhead -115
3. Ilir Latifi +195
4. Jack Hermansson +100
5. Leandro Issa +138
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
1. Jan Blachowicz +559: Based 100% on the post-title fight loss letdown and lengthy layoff. Gus can get back in the title fight mix with another win, but he needs to get off to a good start. At this price and having seen this scenario come through multiple times, it is worth a small play.
The Counter Bet list consists of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.
Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.
Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.
The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.
There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.
Exclusive Bet Pack Information.
Andrei Arlovski/Josh Barnett Total Rounds Over 1.5 -132
With HWs the fight can be over with the first strike, but I like the Over here. Arlovski tends to have 2 types of fights- low output cautious affairs or quick and dirty stoppages. Barnett is going to come out looking to clinch, tie AA up, and drag him to the mat. Arlovski didn’t have a lot of answers for Mir’s clinch or TD game, so Barnett should find success. While we could get a quick stoppage with a strike on the inside, I expect to see Barnett trying to grind Andrei down for the long-haul. Take the Over.
Alexander Gustafsson/Jan Blachowicz Total Rounds Over 2.5 +115
Gus could very well pick up the stoppage in what is seen as a sizeable mismatch. My concern lies with the post-title fight letdown. He is coming off B2B losses, including his second loss in a UFC title fight. On top of all that, he has been out of action for a while. This could all lead to Gus coming out a little or a lot flat and this fight dragging on into the later stages. Of the Swede’s 5 career decisions, 4 have occurred over his last 6-fights. Jan is a bit of a low output striker and will look to clinch up as much as possible to take away his opponent’s speed advantage. That should eat up some time. I considered taking Gus by decision, but I don’t want to run too much against a trend that is pretty consistent. Gus wins, but it takes him a bit to start firing on all cylinders.Jessin Ayari/Jim Wallhead
Check the Betting Scenario Section. I am still not 100% sure of the fight order, but all indication is that is is the final prelim fight.
Nicolas Dalby to Win by Decision +145
Sobotta has been finished just twice in his 21-fight pro career. Dalby does have 7 finishes on his record, accounting for 50% of his victories. He has gone the distance in 4 consecutive bouts and 6 of his last 8 fights. Of his 2 finishes during that stretch, 1 came in the 4th round of the fight suggesting he needed extra time to put the finishing touches on his opponent. He doesn’t have a tonne of power, doing most of his damage through accumulation. Sobotta went down for the first time via TKO in his last fight, which could open the door to another knockout, but I see this fight going the distance.
Ashlee Evans-Smith/Veronica Macedo Total Rounds Under 2.5 +160
The first thing that jumps out here is that the line is set well under the +200 mark. Most WMMA bouts are usually above +200 or at least closer to that line when looking at the Under 2.5. That tells me the books are looking at the Under as well. As I’ve already talked about, Macedo is very new to the MMA scene. This would suggest she could stumble at this level. Especially against a fighter that has a couple of stoppages on her resume and knows how to break opponents down in the clinch and on the mat. On the flipside, Veronica is aggressive on the floor and has picked up a pair of pro finishes plus a couple as an amateur. AES was finished by Pennington and suffered 5 stoppage losses over her final 5 amateur bouts- she can be stopped. Play the Under.
Christian Colombo/Jarjis Danho Total Rounds Under 1.5 +130
It is hard not to take a shot at the Under for plus money when we are dealing with low-level Heavies. All 6 of Danho’s wins have come by stoppage, 5 inside the 1.5 round mark. He should be motivated to put on a better performance after his debut. Colombo also has 6 finishes, all hitting the Under. With a pair of big boys slinging leather that midway mark could seem like an eternity away.
Jack Hermansson/Scott Askham
Check the Betting Scenario Section.
Leandro Silva/Rustam Khabilov
Check the Betting Scenario Section.