UFC Fight Night 71 Bet Pack

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Parlay #1- Living Dangerously
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Selection 1: Ildemar Alcantara $2.03
Selection 2: Tony Ferguson $1.55 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 3: Todd Duffee to Win by TKO/KO/DQ $1.65
Selection 4: Jouban/ Dwyer Total Rounds Under 1.5 $1.77
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Price: $9.19 x Bet: 10 units
Payout: 91.9 units
 
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Parlay #3- Yah Holms!
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Selection 1: Holly Holm $1.54 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: Sam Sicilia $1.64 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 3: Manny Gamburyan $1.69 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 4: Rani Yahya $1.95 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: $8.33 x Bet: 7 units
Payout: 58.31 units
 
 
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Parlay #1 Five Alive
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Selection 1: Jessica Andrade $1.34 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: Todd Duffee $1.54
Selection 3: Thomson/ Ferguson Total Rounds Over 1.5 $1.59 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 4: Jorgensen/ Gamburyan Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.53 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 5: Sam Sicilia $1.64 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: $8.24 x Bet: 4 units
Payout: 32.96 units
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Todd Duffee to Win by TKO/KO/DQ $1.65
Selection 2: Jouban/ Dwyer Total Rounds Under 1.5 $1.77
Selection 3: Casey/ Alcantara Total Rounds Under 2.5 $1.95
Selection 4: Rani Yahya $1.95 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 5: Holly Holm $1.54 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: $17.11 x Bet: 4 units
Payout: 68.44 units
 

Andrew Craig $3.36 vs Lyman Good $1.39 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

There are way too many outside factors here to consider a bet. Craig is returning after 13 months and debuting in a new division. Good is making his UFC debut on short notice, after a relatively quick turnaround from his last fight. I don’t see enough on Craig to consider him as an underdog play and the scenarios favour Good, but he’s doesn’t interest me at this price. No Play.

4 STARS

Kevin Casey $1.91 vs Ildemar Alcantara $2.03

For me this line is a bit of a head scratcher. Casey can grapple and is dangerous on the mat, but his gas tank makes him a liability beyond the opening round. Maybe sooner. He has been out of action for a year and was caught for using PEDs which he should now be off of. How will this affect his cardio? It most likely won’t make it better. Alcantara has at times fought down to his competition, which is concerning. He is a good enough grappler to stay out of trouble long enough for Casey to gas out and his striking is more then enough to put this fight away. I like Alcantara at this price to potentially be used as high as my Gold Parlay play and the total is workable as well.

4 STARS

Igor Araujo $3.79 vs Sean Strickland $1.34 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This fight is a fringe ‘No Play’ for me. I would consider it simply for the sake of diversification, but I most likely will leave it off my bet card. Strickland is talented, but he has really struggled in his last 2 fights. So much so that at this price he is pretty undesirable. Araujo is a grappler and a very capabl one. If he can translate Strickland’s lack of forward pressure into opportunities to tie up and take the fight to the mat- he can win this fight. There are a number of scenarios that I posted in my prediction that favour Strickland, but I would like to see him do more than beat Bubba McDaniel and edge of Luke Barnatt when he is this heavy a fav. I will pass.

4 STARS

Rani Yahya $1.95 vs Masanori Kanehara $1.95 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Kanehara got off to strong start in the UFC, but he has been on the shelf for a bit. Yahya’s attack is pretty straight forward. He wants to grapple, but can Kanehara stop that. He is pretty well-rounded and will be the superior striker, but I think he gets sucked into a grappling battle. Yahya is deceptively strong and Kanehara’s abnormally vertical stance leaves him open to be taken down. I don’t know if Yahya will submit him, but I certainly feel he can establish a long lasting body control. Yahya works for me in the Silver play. His lack of a strong striking game keeps him out of the Gold section.

4 STARS

Jessica Andrade $1.34 vs Sarah Moras $3.69 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I like Andrade here. Moras simply hasn’t impressed me and I see her getting outworked wherever this fight takes place. I am writing Andrade’s last fight off as a brain fart. She got too anxious to finish and jumped into a submission. I see her rebounding with a solid performance. Moras can grapple, but she spends too much time on her back as her counter wrestling is pretty weak. Based on the price I will most likely use Andrade as an add-on to a Silver play instead of in my top investment, although I am quite confident she wins this.

4 STARS

Sam Sicilia $1.64 vs Yaotzin Meza $2.43 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Sicilia is never going to challenge for the title, but he has the ability to carve out a nice career for himself at this level of competition. He throws hard and when he faces competition devoid of a really strong striking defense he can do some serious damage. Meza has been knocked out on multiple occasions, but if he can get this fight to the mat that is his best bet for victory. Sicilia’s wrestling should be good enough as long as he focusses on defense and creating separation. He lands something solid here and puts Meza away. At this price he has potential to make it to my top investment, if not he becomes a key player in the Silver section.

4 STARS

Alan Jouban $1.25 vs Matt Dwyer $4.75 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Dwyer has power and he is very tall for the division. There is a chance he could catch Jouban walking into something, but I wouldn’t stake money on it. Jouban adds a bit of cash to your parlay, but I am looking at the Total for my main play here.

4 STARS

Kevin Lee $1.41 vs James Moontasri $3.26 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Moontasri is a bit of a wildcard here. He is a dangerous striker and if is TDD and gas tank hold up this fight will be much closer than the line currently suggest. That being said, I think the pace of Lee will create a lot of issues and hit ability to transition from striking to grappling will result in some solid top position time. I won’t be going all in on Lee because I think Moontasri is undervalued here, but a Silver or potentially Bronze play on larger parlay is what I am thinking.

4 STARS

Scott Jorgensen $2.33 vs Manny Gamburyan $1.69 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I am not a huge Manny fan, but I think Jorgensen is past it. We just saw a similar situation where Pickett returned to BW and got smashed. Pickett had a much different opponent, but I think the desperation cut to Flyweight that Scotty and ‘One Punch’ made on multiple occasions takes something out of a fighter. Manny is also making a relatively new cut and didn’t look great in his 135 pound debut, but he should be more comfortable with the second cut and against less physically daunting opponent. I think Manny can get on the inside and land something big and/or use his Judo to out muscle Scotty on the mat. Considering his poor performance in his 135 pound debut I have him slipping to a Silver play.

4 STARS

Holly Holm $1.54 vs Marion Reneau $2.79 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is a crucial fight for the division because if Holm comes in and destroys Reneau the talk of her fighting for the title will pickup again. I would have to think that the UFC is hoping to build Holm up as a potential title challenger with a series of wins. She won her debut, but lost a little of the shine that she came in with. Reneau is a game fighter. She pushes forward and looks to put it on her opponent constantly. She is capable on the ground and can hold her own on the feet. That second part could get her into some trouble. I see her aggression resulting her getting countered by a superior striker. There is also the possibility she gets clipped with a head kick on the outside as she uses a slightly lower stance. I expect Holm will be more comfortable in her second UFC bout and it will show in the result. The more I think about it, Holm will most likely make the cut as a Gold parlay contributor.4 STARS

Josh Thomson $2.69 vs Tony Ferguson $1.55 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is a big fight for both men, for different reasons. Thomson is looking to get himself back into contention before its too late and Ferguson is trying to get his name into the title conversation. Thomson should have got the nod against Henderson, but lost. He shows up and smiles and forgets to fight Green, resulting in a loss that could have been a win. Ferguson is an action fighter, but sometimes I question his fight IQ. If he makes poor choices in this bout, like diving on ill-advised sub attempts and giving up position Thomson will capitalize. Although, taking out a solid veteran like Tibau and doing it by submission no less is impressive. I think Ferguson’s time is now and striking will carry him to victory and possibly a stoppage. A gold play is my lead as of right now.

4 STARS

Todd Duffee $1.54 vs Frank Mir $2.69

I am honestly shocked we are getting this type of value on Duffee. Yes Mir knocked out Bigfoot, but that accomplishment isn’t the feat it use to be. Mir was being sold down retirement river prior to that fight and I think the talk will stir up again. Frank has trouble against hard hitting fighters that can bully him around. That is what Duffee will do here. He has real power, but even more importantly he moves very well. His speed and footwork put him in a position to deliver that power more often then normal HWs and Mir won’t be able to handle it. Can Frank take him down? Possibly, but not likely. It is even less likely he keeps him down for long. If Duffee drops him he has to be careful not to dive into Frank’s guard and get caught. Duffee gets the biggest win of his career and easily makes the cut as a Gold parlay leg.

4 STARS

1. Alan Jouban $1.25 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. Todd Duffee $1.54

3. Jessica Andrade $1.34 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Ildemar Alcantara $2.03 

5. Holly Holm $1.54 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

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6. Sam Sicilia $1.64 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

7. Tony Ferguson $1.55 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

8. Kevin Lee $1.41 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

9. Manny Gamburyan $1.69 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

10. Rani Yahya $1.95 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

11. Sean Strickland $1.34 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

12. Lyman Good $1.39 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

1. Ildemar Alcantara $2.03  / Unless Casey can catch him in a sub (he’s never been submitted) very early this is Alcantara’s fight to win.

2. Rani Yahya $1.95 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med / He is a grappling specialist and should excel against a fighter that has been subbed on multiple occasions. By fight time he might be the dog.

3. Alan Jouban/ Matt Dwyer Total Rounds Under 1.5 $1.77  / There are some solid props on this card so it only makes sense that a couple make an appearance on the Value list. Both guys swing for the fences and fight like they have somewhere to be.

4. Kevin Casey/ Ildemar Alcantara Total Rounds Under 2.5 $1.95  / I don’t know if I have ever back a side and total from same fight on the value list, but I can’t resist this play. Casey is known for gassing hard and finishing fights early. 2.5 rounds will be enough for one of those scenarios.

5. Todd Duffee to Win by TKO/KO/DQ $1.65  / Duffee doesn’t win by anything else and he will have 5 rounds to blast a guy known for having a pretty poor chin. Only makes sense.

1. Igor Araujo $3.79  / Based on a few different scenarios Strickland should win this fight, but he has been a little too inconsistent not to consider a play on such a heavy dog with a high level grappling game.

2. Marion Reneau $2.79  / As much as I think Holm takes this fight I can’t deny the feeling that Reneau could give her more trouble then most anticipate. If the line continues to climb I would suggest grabbing it for a nice hedge bet.

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Information.

Prop Bets

Andrew Craig/ Lyman Good

See Betting Scenario Section.

Kevin Casey/ Ildemar Alcantara

See Betting Scenario Section.

Sam Sicilia/ Yaotzin Meza

See Betting Scenario Section.

Alan Jouban/ Matt Dwyer Total Rounds Under 1.5 $1.77

If I ranked my prop bets this play would be #1. Jouban has showed serious knockout power in his UFC run so far. 8 of his 11 wins have come by knockout, 5 in the 1st round. Dwyer has won all 8 of his fights by knockout, 6 in the 1st round. Knockouts have also accounted for both of his losses, both in the 1st round. Dwyer is aggressive and could clip Jouban, but more likely he walks into something early on and the fights ends abruptly. Hammer the Under.

Scott Jorgensen/ Manny Gamburyan Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.53 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This prop has a little more value because Jorgensen has been finished in 4 of his last 5 losses. Up until he tapped Gibson, Manny had gone to decision in 6 straights fights. There is still a risk of a finish, but I think the value is worth the play here. Take the Over.

Josh Thomson/ Tony Ferguson Total Rounds Over 1.5 $1.59 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This fight is most likely getting the 1.5 round treatment because of Ferguson’s recent run. He has finished 4 of his last 5 opponents, 3 in the 1st round and 1 in second. I’m on the Over because Thomson has been finished just once in a 28 fight career, and has gone the distance in 6 of his last 7 fights. I would probably consider playing the Over at 2.5 rounds and this price, some decent value here.

Todd Duffee to Win by TKO/KO/DQ $1.65

Continuing the trend of props with above average and slightly unexpected value, here is another one. Duffee is knockout machine. All 9 of his wins have come by knockout and all but 1 have come inside he 1st round. The other last just 77 seconds into round 2. Conversely, Mir has been knocked out in 7 of his 9 losses- 5 in the first round. He has gone the distance with Overeem and Cormier in 2 of his last 4 defeats, but Duffee swings to kill. I don’t see this fight going 5 rounds and unless Mir pulls of the upset, Duffee by knockout is the play.

Frank Mir/ Todd Duffee Total Rounds Under 1.5 $1.57 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

If your book doesn’t offer method bets, play the Under. I mentioned above the appropriate stats to back this play up as well. With the Under you are also supported by the nasty submission game of Mir and the fact that in any HW bout 1 flush connection can end a fight. I am still banking on the knockout from Duffee but this play make sense as well.

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