UFC Fight Night 52: Hunt vs Nelson- Post Fight Dissension Breakdown & Bet Pack

Ryan Poli


UFC Fight Night 52

Parlay Breakdowns

 

Gold Plays

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: AMIR SADOLLAH $2.55
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Price: $2.55 x Bet: $100
Payout: $255
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: ROY NELSON $2.05
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Price: $2.05 x Bet: $100
Payout: $205
 
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Parlay #3
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Selection 1: MICHINORI TANAKA $1.65
Selection 2: KAZUKI TOKUDOME $1.65
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Price: $2.73 x Bet: $100
Payout: $273
 
Silver Plays
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: AMIR SADOLLAH $2.55
Selection 2: MAXIMO BLANCO $1.67
Selection 3: MICHINORI TANAKA $1.65
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Price: $7.03 x Bet: $100
Payout: $703
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: MAXIMO BLANCO $1.67
Selection 2: KATSUNORI KIKUNO $1.69
Selection 3: ROY NELSON $2.05
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Price: $5.79 x Bet: $100
Payout: $579
 
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Parlay #3
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Selection 1: ALEX CACERES/ MASANORI KANEHARA Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.91
Selection 2: HYUN GYU LIM/ TAKENORI SATO Total Rounds Under 1.5 $1.63
Selection 3: KIICHI KUNIMOTO $1.43
Selection 4: MIESHA TATE $1.38
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Price: $6.15 x Bet: $100
Payout: $615
 
Bronze Plays
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: ROY NELSON $2.05
Selection 2: KYOJI HORIGUCHI/ JON DELOS REYES Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.55
Selection 3: ALEX CACERES/ MASANORI KANEHARA Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.91
Selection 4: MICHINORI TANAKA $1.65
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Price: $16.48 x Bet: 100
Payout: $1648
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: AMIR SADOLLAH $2.55
Selection 2: JOHNNY CASE/ KAZUKI TOKUDOME Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.67
Selection 3: ROY NELSON $2.05
Selection 4: HYUN GYU LIM/ TAKENORI SATO Total Rounds Under 1.5 $1.63
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Price: $14.23 x Bet: 100
Payout: $1423
 
WILDCARD
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: MICHINORI TANAKA $1.65
Selection 2: MAXIMO BLANCO $1.67
Selection 3: KAZUKI TOKUDOME $1.65
Selection 4: KATSUNORI KIKUNO $1.69
Selection 5: AMIR SADOLLAH $2.55
Selection 6: ROY NELSON $2.05
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Price: $40.17 x Bet: $100
Payout: $4017
 

Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns

DANIEL HOOKER $2.55 vs MAXIMO BLANCO $1.67

Were opening the night with a bit… an extremely loose cannon. Blanco is all sorts of crazy and routinely gets caught for breaking the rules. DQs and lost points galore. That being said, when he gets his head straight he is a pretty tough out for the lower to mid level guys. Where is Hooker sitting right now? Well he was good on the local fight scene and won his debut, but that doesn’t count for that much considering his first UFC opponent’s poor fight IQ. When you attempt a leg lock and start eating more elbows then it is worth it is time to abort. Hooker is a big FW if he can keep Blanco on the outside or stun him coming in that could be his ticket. I see Blanco being too fast, hitting too hard, and being too diverse- his wrestling will be key. There is some value here considering Blanco is easily the most talented fighter that Hooker has faced. Maxi is a head case so most likely I will through him into a Silver parlay.

JOHNNY CASE $2.45 vs KAZUKI TOKUDOME $1.65

Another decent paying favourite in Tokudome. Case has been on the shelf for almost a year and is making his debut at a really weird time for an American to fight (early morning)- all tough to deal with. Case seems quite vulnerable to the takedown and so far KT has been all about them. Kazuki’s chin and defensive game under pressure is a bit of an issue, but I can seem him controlling case with his top game and the threat of the takedown stunting the American’s ability to let his hands go. The value on Tukudome is solid and I think he makes the cut as a Gold play parlay pick.

MICHINORI TANAKA $1.65 vs KYUNG HO KANG $2.50

I like Kang, but he has a bad habit of losing close fights. He could easily be 3-0 in the UFC, instead he is 1-1 with a Loss turned No Contest in his debut. Both guys are strong grapplers and this fight could go either way. The size of the Korean is a big factor, but technique and superior gas tank should and will trump it. Kang had a lot of trouble with Caceres on the mat and even Chico Camus. Tanka is more refined that both on the mat. I think Tanaka gets the better of the top game early and further pulls away when Kang starts to slow down. I think Tanaka is a more reliable bet then Blanco and has far less defensive gaps then Tukudome, so he makes the cut on the Gold section in a parlay bet.

HYUN GYU LIM $1.18 vs TAKENORI SATO $5.72

Lim cuts an absolute tonne of weight. So much so that he had to pull out of his original debut fight because the cut was too hard on him. With the price he offers and the risk of the cut impacting the fight, there is absolutely no way you can play ‘Ace’ here straight up. Instead I like the under here as the best option to bet on this fight.

SAM SICILIA $2.33 vs KATSUNORI KIKUNO $1.69

I was originally looking at Sicilia as the play here, but I think that Kikuno has more to offer then what he showed in his last fight. Cutting down a division may very well revitalize him and get him back to the kicking based attack that worked so well for him before. Additionally, his style of slipping punches and then countering may be more effective against a fighter like Sammy who likes to swing on the wild side. Kikuno does have knockout power as well and I think that SS’s chin has been exposed of late. Also there’s the judo factor, Sicilia had trouble with the ground game of Blanco and I think Kikuno could take advantage of that as well. I will most likely play KK in the Silver pack because he is new to the division and there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding how he will approach this fight.

KIICHI KUNIMOTO $1.43 vs RICHARD WALSH $3.11

Just like with Sicilia, I was on Walsh but made the final switch to Kunimoto. I like what Walsh brings to the cage, but in all reality he has done it against much lesser competition. Kunimoto’s win over Sarafian was impressive even if the Brazilian was impacted by the weight cut. He has a pretty solid grappling game, more technically refined then the Aussie’s and that will take away arguably the biggest weapon that Walsh has. Unfortunately, at this price I’m not that excited to play Kiichi in the gold pack, more over he will probably cut down to a Silver parlay play.

KYOJI HORIGUCHI $1.18 vs JON DELOS REYES $6.01

Cleary I won’t be backing Horiguchi at this price. I think he wins the bout, but JDR is aggressive and could give him some trouble. In a very similar situation to Lim, the Under might be an option here.

ALEX CACERES $1.36 vs MASANORI KANEHARA $3.57

Caceres needs to avoid of a bit of a letdown here. He received a lot of praise for his efforts against Faber and while it wasn’t a title fight going from fighting such a highly ranked guy to a unranked debuting opponent can be tough to get up for. Kanehara has fought some decent competition and poses some problems for Bruce Leeroy. He hits hard and has a pretty decent ground game. I was certainly looking into Masanori as an option, I ultimately went with Caceres but feel that if Kanehara wins it won’t be shocking. I am a little leery on Caceres at his price and feel his opponent is more dangerous then this number would suggest. I will tread very carefully here.

MIESHA TATE $1.38 vs RIN NAKAI $3.41

I wasn’t that impressed with Nakai, and I really looked at this fight for a possible upset but I just don’t see it. Tate has a lot of shortcomings and I picked Carmouche to beat her and felt that she did. Nakai’s record seems to be populated with squash matches and I see nothing to suggest she is ready to step up and fight one of the top women in the division. Yes she appears to have a good grappling game, but I think she is going to struggle to use if against Tate, especially as the fight progresses. Her striking is horrible and that will make it tough for her to get inside. Nakai is taking a massive step up that I don’t think she is ready for yet, but I’m not ready to throw a tonne of cash down on Tate at this price so I think she slips to Silver play.

AMIR SADOLLAH $2.55 vs YOSHIHIRO AKIYAMA $1.62

I hope this line keeps on climbing. From my perspective, Sexyama’s focus is no longer on MMA. He has a lot going on and I think he is coming back for one more big shot in front of his people. He didn’t look great in his only 170 pound bout and that was almost 3 years and he is pushing 40 now. I can’t imagine his cardio will be much better then it was, if anything it will be worse. Amir has been gone for almost 2 years now and is no spring chicken either, but I think his superior striking style and volume will be the deciding factor. Even if Akiyama can use his judo look for him to slow down significantly in round 2 and 3 allowing Sadollah to outwork him and take the win. I am looking at Amir as arguably my top single bet of the card, depending on the line movement for Big Country.

MYLES JURY $1.20 vs TAKANORI GOMI $5.72

I will keep this one short. Jury is far to well rounded- better striker, better grappler, and better cardio for Gomi to contend with. Myles still needs to come prepared, execute, and not get clipped with a big punch. He wins this fight, but at $1.20 its probably not worth including him on your bet card.

MARK HUNT $1.95 vs ROY NELSON $2.05

With the news breaking regarding Hunt’s weight situation, still 20+ pounds over the limit 24 hours from the weigh ins, this line has taken a dive. I would think that if Hunt makes weight, we could see Roy climb back up a little. Both guys hit like trucks, but Roy is a smart fighter. I think he will incorporate his ground here like he did versus Cro Cop. Yes, Hunt’s defensive game has improve but I still think Roy can take him down and potentially work to that crucifix position that he has used before. At the same time I wouldn’t be surprised to see Nelson land something big and score the knockout. He has stopped guys that are much more fleet of foot then Hunt and should have been able to avoid Nelson’s right hand. I like Nelson to win, wait for his price tag to climb back up. It could also dive further if the news gets worse for Hunt, but I will take that risk. Nelson works for me as a Gold Pack single bet even as low as $1.80.


Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1. MYLES JURY $1.20

2. HYUN GYU LIM $1.18

3. MICHINORI TANAKA $1.65

4. KYOJI HORIGUCHI $1.18

5. ROY NELSON $2.05

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6. MIESHA TATE $1.38

7. MAXIMO BLANCO $1.67

8. KAZUKI TOKUDOME $1.65

9. KIICHI KUNIMOTO $1.43

10. ALEX CACERES $1.36

11. KATSUNORI KIKUNO $1.69

12. AMIR SADOLLAH $2.55


 

Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. AMIR SADOLLAH $2.55 The layoff, his age, the weight cut, and his lack of focus are all too much for Akiyama. Amir’s volume carries the day.
2. ROY NELSON $2.05 This number could drop, but I think Nelson recognizes the opportunity that is ahead of him and capitalizes. Let’s hope the weight cut impacts Hunt, but no the price tag (at least anymore).
3. MICHINORI TANAKA $1.65 Kang is by no means as easy fight, but I think Tanaka will continue his bad luck of losing close decisions.
4. KAZUKI TOKUDOME $1.65 He has to keep his chin tucked or out of the line of fire. Fortunately, a heavy top game can do just that.
5. MAXIMO BLANCO $1.67 A big step up for Hooker, but please don’t give away points here.

The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

  • Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
  • I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.

Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. JON DELOS REYES $6.01 If he can work a strong top game he could expose some of Horiguchi’s grappling woes.
2. MASANORI KANEHARA $3.57 He has a much better chance of winning this fight then the odds would suggest.
3.
4.
5.

The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.

Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.

Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.

The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.

There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.


Prop Bets-

JOHNNY CASE/ KAZUKI TOKUDOME Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.67- There is the risk that this fight could end early if Case can land, but with 3 straight decisions in his UFC run and 6 overall I think Tokudome uses his top control to grind to a decision.

MICHINORI TANAKA/ KYUNG HO KANG Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.45- Not a flashy price tag, but I think it is a solid bet. This will be a positional battle start to finish and they have combined for 10 decisions overall and 5 of their last 6 combined fights went to the scorecards.

HYUN GYU LIM/ TAKENORI SATO Total Rounds Under 1.5 $1.63- I though about playing the Over, but I think Lim comes out aggressive and Sato gets overwhelmed. Too many knockout wins on one side and too many knockout losses on the other.

KYOJI HORIGUCHI/ JON DELOS REYES Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.55- JDR is incredibly aggressive and I can see him walking into something huge from Horiguchi. There is always the risk of an early feeling out period or zombie like effort like Montague had against Kyoji to push it into the second half but that is why we get a little value.

ALEX CACERES/ MASANORI KANEHARA Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.91- I have already talked about the pension for fights in spot on the card to hit the over and there is some nice value here.

MYLES JURY/ TAKANORI GOMI Total Rounds Over 1.5 $1.55- I am a little shocked it is not set at 2. I think Jury takes a page out of Kenny Florian’s book and uses a heavy jab game to neutralize Gomi at least early, wait for him to slow down, and then crank it up.

MARK HUNT/ ROY NELSON Total Rounds Over 1.5 $1.57- I think this fight makes it out of round 1 as both guys go through a bit of a feeling out process. I could be wrong, but with their chins the over seems like the correct move here.