UFC Fight Night 50: Souza vs Mousasi- Post Fight Dissension Breakdown & Bet Pack
UFC Fight Night 50
=================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: MATT MITRIONE $2.40 =================================================== Price: $2.40 x Bet: $100 Payout: $240 =================================================== Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: JUSTIN SCOGGINS $1.44 Selection 2: AL IAQUINTA/ RODRIGO DAMM Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.56 =================================================== Price: $2.25 x Bet: $100 Payout: $225 =================================================== Parlay #3 =================================================== Selection 1: MICHAEL CHIESA $1.77 Selection 2: JUSTIN SCOGGINS/ JOHN MORAGA Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.59 Selection 3: CHRIS BEAL $1.28 =================================================== Price: $3.61 x Bet: $100 Payout: $361 =================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: GEGARD MOUSASI $3.57 =================================================== Price: $3.57 x Bet: $100 Payout: $357 =================================================== Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: MATT MITRIONE $2.40 Selection 2: JUSTIN SCOGGINS $1.44 Selection 3: MICHAEL CHIESA $1.77 =================================================== Price: $6.12 x Bet: $100 Payout: $612 =================================================== Parlay #3 =================================================== Selection 1: SEAN SORIANO $3.00 Selection 2: MATT MITRIONE/ DERRICK LEWIS Total Rounds Over 1.5 $2.40 Selection 3: AL IAQUINTA/ RODRIGO DAMM Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.56 =================================================== Price: $11.84 x Bet: $100 Payout: $1184 =================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: CHRIS CAMOZZI $2.45 Selection 2: ALISTAIR OVEREEM/ BEN ROTHWELL Total Rounds Over 1.5 $2.55 Selection 3: GEGARD MOUSASI $3.57 Selection 4: JUSTIN SCOGGINS $1.44 =================================================== Price: $32.12 x Bet: $100 Payout: $3212 =================================================== Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: MICHAEL CHIESA $1.77 Selection 2: MATT MITRIONE $2.40 Selection 3: SEAN SORIANO $3.00 Selection 4: CHARLES OLIVEIRA/ NIK LENTZ Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.08 =================================================== Price: $26.51 x Bet: $100 Payout: $2651 =================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: MICHAEL CHIESA $1.77 Selection 2: MATT MITRIONE $2.40 Selection 3: SEAN SORIANO $3.00 Selection 4: AL IAQUINTA/ RODRIGO DAMM Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.56 Selection 5: GEGARD MOUSASI $3.57 =================================================== Price: $70.97 x Bet: $100 Payout: $7097
Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns
SEAN SORIANO $3.00 vs CHAS SKELLY $1.50
The first fight of the night and I am back on the upset train. EPU. I simply do not like fighters on such short turnarounds. Skelly will have a little less then 2 weeks to get ready for Soriano and while I understand why he wants to strike while the iron is hot, I would rather see him go through a full camp and prep then just hope his natural ability is good enough for the win. If he can get this fight to the ground he has the ability to end it, but I was very impressed with Soriano’s TDD in his last fight and I expect him to have improved since. Skelly has also made statements about wanting to showcase his striking which would be a massive mistake vs Soriano. Soriano shuts down the takedowns, keeps him at distance and does some serious damage with his striking. Skelly has the skillset to win this bout so it will prevent Soriano from being a Gold play, but a Bronze or potentially Silver play makes sense.
CHRIS BEAL $1.28 vs TATEKI MATSUDA $4.36
Beal should win this fight, the only concern I have is his defensive grappling. He is still relatively young in his career and is facing his 3rd different opponent after a couple of changes which are both red flags. Toss in the weeks notice that Matsuda has had to prep for this bout and I will pass with such little value on Beal.
CHRIS CAMOZZI $2.45 vs RAFAEL NATAL $1.65
This fight won’t be pretty and that is the way Chris Camozzi likes it. I went back and forth on this one and while Natal is favoured, I simply struggle to see him winning without scoring consistently with his takedown game. I wasn’t impressed with his fight with Ed Herman and his inability to take him down. Herman is pretty shot out at this point and Natal made him look much better then he is. Even after his TDAs falter, he failed to switch up his gameplan to a striking based attack and was getting busted up. Natal may win the first round, but look for the damage that Camozzi inflicts and the Brazilian’s so-so cardio to cost him the rest of the fight. I like Camozzi as a Silver play, he is far from a world beater and basically gifted his opponent the win in his last bout with some poor decisions, but he learns and he wins here.
AL IAQUINTA $1.20 vs RODRIGO DAMM $5.72
If I am not playing Beal I am certainly not betting Iaquinta. He should win this bout, but Damm has the tools to submit him if given the chance and at this price the risk/reward is not there. I would consider a small bet on Damm if you have the extra cash, but only if you have some to spare. Prior to the lineup changes this bout was scheduled to be the final prelim so you know the prop bet I would suggest here.
JUSTIN SCOGGINS $1.44 vs JOHN MORAGA $3.01
I am looking for Scoggins to come back from his first career defeat refocused and ready to go. For Moraga, he fought for the title, lost a pretty one-sided affair, and is struggling to get it going again. In fact he really hasn’t looked that good in any fight other then his debut. Cariaso was beating him prior to getting caught and I thought Ortiz did enough to win as well. I won’t go all in on Scoggins as he fought well, but ultimately lost his first next level challenge and that doesn’t do a lot to instill confidence in him as a big favourite in his follow up fight. I’ll take Scoggins in a parlay, most likely Gold, but he could drop to Silver.
CHARLES OLIVEIRA $1.61 vs NIK LENTZ $2.65
Illegal knee aside, with the manner in which Oliveira was taking it to Lentz I find is surprising that Charles is getting this high of a price tag. Oliveira was landing at will on the feet and relentlessly attacking Lentz on the mat- exhausting him in the process. Do Bronx doesn’t have the big return of the traditional single bets for the Gold section, but I intend to use him as a 2 fight parlay for one of my bigger bets of the evening.
MICHAEL CHIESA $1.77 vs JOE LAUZON $2.25
My first pick here was Lauzon, but the more and more I looked at it Chiesa is the play. Lauzon is dangerous, but unless he hits the early sub Chiesa is going to grind him out and take the decision. Unfortunately, a loss like this is going to be a massive nail, possibly the final one, in Lauzon’s hopes to climb into some form of title contention. I expect him to come our aggressive, which makes him dangerous, but a candidate to gas out. Regardless, I like Chiesa here at this price and he will probably make it into my Gold plays- probably used in similar fashion to Oliveira.
MATT MITRIONE $2.40 vs DERRICK LEWIS $1.67
Welcome to my #1 play of the day. Matty Mitrione. I just don’t get why everyone is all over Derrick Lewis as the next big thing at HW. He beat Jack May, a fighter known for a lack of durability and a bad gas tank. He followed it up with a win over Guto Inocente, an undersized HW who had been on the shelf for more then 2 years and had just one fight in the past 4. Yes they were both first round finishes and he called out the champ in the aftermath, but all I saw was a sloppy and very limited striking game that did little damage until he worked his way into top position. He did beat Jared Rosholt which is pretty impressive, but Rosholt is slow as if he doesn’t take the fight to the ground- very hittable. MM is the better athlete, quicker, more diverse, and overall has better experience. Many are pointing to the Nelson knockout as evidence of his vulnerability here, but Nelson hits like a truck and his built his career on landing those type of shots. Matt was coming off a near year layoff and took the fight on short notice stepping up for Shane Carwin. I see him staying on the outside, using his kicks and forcing Lewis to try and chase him down. The end result will be Lewis slowing down and struggling to land with any success. I will take Matt as a gold play single bet. I am also looking at the total here for some decent value.
ALISTAIR OVEREEM $1.20 vs BEN ROTHWELL $5.55
We can’t back Overeem here at this price as Ben is no slouch. I do have an lean on the total here that could be worth some coin. I will post it in prop section. No Play.
GEGARD MOUSASI $3.57 vs RONALDO SOUZA $1.37
Any time you can get a fighter of Mousasi’s caliber at this price he is worth a long look. Trust me I am not buying into all of the hype that was bestowed upon him as the next World Champ, but I like him here. Jacare seems to slow down and considering that this is a 5 round fight that is huge. His striking becomes more predictable and easier to avoid once that gas tanks starts running low and that will be huge for Mousasi. Look at round 2 of Jacare vs Carmont. When Carmont started to sit down on his punches and actually push the pace Jacare shelled up. Mousasi has a great jab and his ability to punish Jacare (as he did to Munoz) on his shot will be massive. Look for the Brazilian to land some early TDs, but he will start to fade, take some damage, and then his shots will come further apart and with lot less effectiveness. With Souza being such a talented fighter it is hard to put Mousasi in the gold pack, but he will probably be y #1 play out of the Silver section as a single bet.
Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)
1. CHARLES OLIVEIRA $1.61
2. CHRIS BEAL $1.28
3. AL IAQUINTA $1.20
4. MICHAEL CHIESA $1.77
5. JUSTIN SCOGGINS $1.44
6. MATT MITRIONE $2.40
7. ALISTAIR OVEREEM $1.20
8. GEGARD MOUSASI $3.57
9. SEAN SORIANO $3.00
10. CHRIS CAMOZZI $2.45
Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)
|1.||MATT MITRIONE||$2.40||Matty cant’t be reckless here and has to be careful of the power of Lewis, but technique trumps power in most situations.|
|2.||GEGARD MOUSASI||$3.57||Mousasi is way to good a fighter to be paying this well. The only 2 men that Jacare has faced in the same talent pool are Rockhold and Kennedy. The results were a loss and a controversial win. He has improved since then but this is a big price point here.|
|3.||MICHAEL CHIESA||$1.77||I expect with Lauzon’s name value that this line could improve closer to the start of the fight, keep an eye out for some movement that may even push Chiesa close to even with Joe.|
|4.||SEAN SORIANO||$3.00||He could easily be higher, but there are too many uncertainties here: longer layoff, opponent change, short notice for Skelly, just 2 UFC fight. Sprawl and Brawl for the win.|
|5.||CHRIS CAMOZZI||$2.45||Taking over for Oliveira in the 5th spot, either guy could win. The Fight is much closer then the odds indicate and I like Camozzi to where down his opponent.|
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
- Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
- I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.
Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)
|1.||RODRIGO DAMM||$5.72||It would only take one mistake by Al on the mat and Damm is cashing.|
|2.||BEN ROTHWELL||$5.55||Ben is a dangerous opponent no matter what people say and if Overeem has any performance issue he won’t get his hand raised.|
The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.
Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.
Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.
The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.
There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.
AL IAQUINTA/ RODRIGO DAMM Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.56- This was the bridge fight between the main card and the prelims. 15 of the last 21 have gone Over the total and 7 of the last 8. Yes they each have finishing skills, but they have a combined 11 decisions and 7 of their last 8 combined fights have gone to the judges.
JUSTIN SCOGGINS/ JOHN MORAGA Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.59- Scoggins has gone the distance with each of his last 2 opponents which usually happens to fighters that blow through lesser comp and then get a step up. Moraga is a tough dude and has been finished just twice by Mighty Mouse and John Dodson- the best of the best, Moraga has gone the distance 7 times in his career.
CHARLES OLIVEIRA/ NIK LENTZ Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.08- All 6 of Oliveira’s wins have come by submission, excluding his No Contest with Lentz. Submitting Hatsu Hioki is huge as well. If you can give a submission artist like C.O. 2.5 rounds to get the finish it is almost always worth a shot.
MICHAEL CHIESA/ JOE LAUZON Total Rounds Over 2.5 $2.05- This is one of those fights that most would expect to go under and it very well could. Both guys have finishing skills and could easily wrap this fight early. Instead what I expect to see is Chiesa fending off submissions early and then grinding down Lauzon on the mat. He could try to finish, but I anticipate him focusing on maintaining position over submission. They could also spend a large duration of this fight on the feet where neither is known for their finishing skills.
MATT MITRIONE/ DERRICK LEWIS Total Rounds Over 1.5 $2.40- Yup, I have preached HW fights = Under for a long time. But there have been a couple recent bouts hitting the over- Jordan/May & Hamilton/Potts come to mind. They only have a combined 4 decisions, but upon closer inspection they have a combined 9 fights that have gone over the 1.5 total. Keep in mind this is the first time Lewis is facing a non-debuting fighter so expect for a little regression in his finishing skills. We might see a knockout, but it could take time to materialize.
ALISTAIR OVEREEM/ BEN ROTHWELL Total Rounds Over 1.5 $2.55- What!?!?!?! Back to back overs on Heavyweight bouts? This fight could end quickly, very quickly- but I don’t think so. Rothwell is a tough guy, not impossible but hard to finish. They only have a combined 12 decisions in 93 total fights, but the manner in which Overeem paced himself vs Mir suggests he is turning over a new leaf. I expect to see a little bit of a tentative first round, with both men looking to conserve their energy. A tentative first round will frequently result in an Over 1.5.