UFC Fight Night 47: Bader vs St. Preux- Post Fight Stock Report & the Bet Pack

STOCK UP:

Tom Watson. Watson was able to back on track with a nice victory over Sam Alvey. Watson repeatedly attacked the left leg of Alvey & won the first 2 rounds. He got seriously rocked in the 3rd but but was able to hang on to win the decision.

Lauren Murphy. Despite losing a very close split decision, Murphy’s stock definitely goes up because she easily outlanded McMann. Murphy was repeatedly taken down but was consistently beating on McMann from the bottom. I expect big things from Murphy in the UFC.

Jussier Formiga. I definitely overlooked Formiga coming into this bout but he proved me wrong. Formiga easily won the first 2 rounds & was able to hang on in the 3rd to get the judges decision. I would like to see him face Ali Bagautinov next because he is ranked higher & they have not fought yet. Lineker & McCall would also make sense but I think they should fight each other in a title eliminator.

Thiago Tavares. Tavares is very skilled but the knock on him is always his chin. His chin didn’t matter in this one because Tavares destroyed Peralata from the get go & easily submitted him in the 1st round. Fantastic performance by Tavares in his featherweight debut.

Alan Jouban. Jouban picked up a nice 1st round come from behind knockout victroy in his UFC debut. Jouban did what he was hyped up to do & I can’t wait to see him back in the octagon.

STOCK DOWN:

Sara McMann. Sara was dominant with her wrestling but this is MMA & if she doesn’t improve her striking & aggressiveness on the mat then she will free fall down the division rankings. She got the win but it was very unimpressive.

Zach Makovsky. Fun size came in as a big favorite but simply got outclassed in the first 2 rounds. He did pick it up in the 3rd but it was too little too late. He was hyped up to be a future title contender & this just proved that he has a lot of work to climb up rankings.

Brad Taveres. Tavares came in as a big favorite & was dominating the fight until he got caught in the 2nd. Tavares has the skill but that chin will always be his downfall. He’s also got to fight smarter. Tavares is probably close to getting his pink slip from the UFC.

Gray Maynard. It is just sad to see Maynard like this. He was at one time one of the best fighters in the world but his chin is just done. It was good bout until he finally got clipped & finished in the 2nd round. It’s time for him to retire.

Ovince Saint Preux. OSP is extremely athletic but he was just outclassed against Bader. OSP must go to a better camp so he can become a complete fighter. If he doesn’t join a better camp then he will always lose against top 10 guys in the division.

SAME OLD SAME OLD:

Seth Baczynski. He had a very entertaining 1 round bout against Jouban but Baczynski was winning the fight before his chin got cracked & he lost another bout because of the glass chin.

Tim Boetsch. It was an awesome come from behind knockout victory for Boetsch but it wasn’t all that impressive considering the glass chin of Tavares. Boetsch is just another gatekeeper.

Ross Pearson. It was a well needed knockout victory for Pearson but it wasn’t as impressive because of the chin of Maynard. Pearson did what he was supposed to do. Maynard was a great fighter but he just can’t take the punishment anymore.

Ryan Bader. The title challenger gatekeeper easily outclassed OSP but it just wasn’t all that impressive. I would’ve liked to see Bader go for the kill but he was just fine with cruising to a decision victory.

Results

Frankie Saenz defeated Nolan Ticman by unanimous decision 30-27 on all cards.

Tom Watson defeated Sam Alvey by unanimous decision 29-28 on all cards.

Sara McMann defeated Lauren Murphy by split decision 29-28, 28-29, & 29-28.

Jussier Formiga defeated Zach Makovsky by unanimous decision 29-28 on all cards.

Thiago Tavares defeated Robbie Peralta by 1st round RNC submission.

Shawn Jordan defeated Jack May by 3rd round TKO.

Alan Jouban defeated Seth Baczynski by 1st round KO.

Tim Boetsch defeated Brad Tavares by 2nd round TKO.

Ross Pearson defeated Gray Maynard by 2nd round TKO.

Ryan Bader defeated Ovince Saint Preux by unanimous decision 49-46, 49-46, & 48-47.

The bet pack is posted below, the Prediction Panel member’s records have been updated, and the Sprawl N Brawl winner and top 5 have been posted. Onward and upward or forward, I’m not sure what works best here.


UFC Fight Night 47

Parlay Breakdowns

 

Gold Plays

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: BRAD TAVARES $1.39
Selection 2: RYAN BADER $1.62
Selection 3: ZACH MAKOVSKY $1.34
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Price: $3.02 x Bet: $100
Payout: $302
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: SARA MCMANN $1.32
Selection 2: BRAD TAVARES/ TIM BOETSCH Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.36
Selection 3: JACK MAY/ SHAWN JORDAN Total Rounds Under $1.45
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Price: $2.60 x Bet: $100
Payout: $260
 
Silver Plays
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: ROBBIE PERALTA $2.58
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Price: $2.58 x Bet: $100
Payout: $258
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: RYAN BADER to Win by Decision $4.00
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Price: $4.00 x Bet: $100
Payout: $400
 
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Parlay #3
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Selection 1: ROSS PEARSON $1.78
Selection 2: SAM ALVEY $2.15
Selection 3: RYAN BADER $1.62
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Price: $6.20 x Bet: $100
Payout: $620
 
 
Bronze Plays
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: GRAY MAYNARD/ ROSS PEARSON Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.10
Selection 2: RYAN BADER/ OVINCE ST. PREUX Total Rounds Over 3.5 $2.05
Selection 3: ROBBIE PERALTA $2.58
Selection 4: BRAD TAVARES $1.39
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Price: $15.44 x Bet: $100
Payout: $1544
 
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Parlay #2
===================================================
Selection 1: ALAN JOUBAN $2.35
Selection 2: NOLAN TICMAN $2.40
Selection 3: SHAWN JORDAN $1.54
Selection 4: SAM ALVEY $2.15
===================================================
Price: $18.69 x Bet: $100
Payout: $1869
 
 
WILDCARD
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: NOLAN TICMAN $2.40
Selection 2: ROBBIE PERALTA $2.58
Selection 3: RYAN BADER to Win by Decision $4.00
Selection 4: ROSS PEARSON $1.78
Selection 5: SAM ALVEY $2.15
===================================================
Price: $94.79 x Bet: $100
Payout: $9479
 

Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns

FRANKIE SAENZ $1.67 vs NOLAN TICMAN $2.40

There is some footage for these guys, but there is so much unknown that it has EPU written all over it. Short notice, debuting fighters, a divisional change, a long layoff, and limited overall experience. For fun lets take a look at the recent EPUs. Fox 12- Lahat over Siler (1st), UFN 46- Holohan over Sampo (1st), UFN 45- Cedeno over Sanders (2nd), TUF 19- Moras over Deresne (2nd), UFC 175- Casey over Bush (1st) & Zacrich over Vasoncelos (2nd). Over the last 5 shows there have been 6 upsets recorded in either the first or second fight of the night. That means 6 of 10 dogs have won, a 60% success rate. Pretty impressive. The streak was snapped by Oleksiy Oliynyk beating Anthony Hamilton. Oleksiy did open as the dog, but became the slight favourite over time. The point is that there is enough evidence to support that my EPU theory is a real thing and in this fight there are so factors it is hard to overlook. I will take Ticman to get the job done. Most likely a single bet in the Silver package.

SAM ALVEY $2.15 vs TOM WATSON $1.83

Another upset pick, but I am on Alvey because I see enough in him to suggest he can win this fight without simply considering the outside factors. I have been successful picking Watson’s fights, 4-0 so far. I called upset wins by Watson over Nedkov and Catone, and then took the favourites with Leites and Tavares. Alvey packs a punch and he is more active then Watson when attacking. Additionally, he isn’t an MMA rookie having fought both a larger number of bouts and a few recognizable names. Outside of his performance vs Nedkov (where he almost got finished late in round 1) he hasn’t looked that great and his cardio is only so/so. I think Alvey matches up with him well and could possibly exploit Watson’s brutal TDD- 5 per fight over 4 fights. I’ll take Alvey straight up and he could creep in the Gold plays, he is on the fence right now.

LAUREN MURPHY $4.05 vs SARA MCMANN $1.32

I am not going to spend a lot of time here. McMann needs to avoid the post-title fight letdown that can really create havoc in that first fight after falling back down the mountain. I may consider using Sara in a parlay as her skillset is more impressive then anything I have seen out of Murphy, but her inclusion will be minimal.

JUSSIER FORMIGA $3.69 vs ZACH MAKOVSKY $1.34

This should be a decent scrap with some big title shot implications. I was hoping it would be on the main card to give these guys some ore exposure, but the prelims are pretty thing to start with. I think Makovsky is the more the well rounded fighter and should take this, but please do not count Formiga out. He is dangerous on the ground and is improving on the feet. I would anticipate that Zach wants to keep this standing and even though it is his choice, when you take away an aspect of a fighter’s game, like Makovsky’s wrestling, it can impact their performance. If he does go to the ground and makes a mistake, look out. For Formiga, he is talented by I am not all that impressed with him when he gets paired up with upper echelon guys and that is where Makovsky is at least for me. Formiga lacks a dangerous striking game to make him more then just a single dimension threat. For that reason I will be banking on Makovsky to simply be the more effective fighter, he could finish, but he isn’t known for it. I will be using Fun Size on my parlays, I think his 2 performance over other good grapplers gets him pushed in the gold range.

ROBBIE PERALTA $2.58 vs THIAGO TAVARES $1.61

I am simply not sold on this move for Tavares. My initial reaction was that I couldn’t believe that he was going down. He isn’t the tallest guy, but he certainly has put some muscle on and that can make for a bad cut. I looked at 4 things in this fight. 1) Peralta isn’t great off his back and Thiago is very talented on the mat. This was my first area of focus here, but I believe that another factor on this list will trump the ground game. 2) Speed. With Tavares moving down he is going to have to deal with faster opponents that will be hard to close on and harder to keep up with. 3) Cardio. Thiago’s cardio wasn’t great at 155 and while it is hard to see into the future, I try to get a feel for how a fighter is preparing for a cut based on some of the things I see in the cage. My gut feeling is that Thiago is going to try and shed a little weight and dump enough water on weigh-in day to get down. I wouldn’t be shocked if he came up a pound or 2 short. If the cut is bad his cardio will further suffer and he is going to be slowing down quickly and that will take his grappling out of the equation for large portion of the fight. 4) Knockouts- Peralta’s ability to get them and Thiago’s inability to withstand them. Robbie has big power and if he can walk Thiago down with a big shot, especially after he starts to slow he is going to land. It is a risk, but I like Peralta against a diminished Tavares. Single bet in the Gold range is a real possibility and I will take a long look at a prop bet here as well.

JACK MAY $2.70 vs SHAWN JORDAN $1.54

Jordan’s chin is a concern. Anytime we are dealing with heavies there is a real possibility that one big shot can blow all of the odds right out of the water. May is a big man with power and a striking background. The first 5 minutes of the fight is a real danger zone for a bet on Jordan. If May lands flush it could be lights out. What I expect though is that Jordan is going to use his speed and grappling to make May work and eventually wear him out. Additionally, May really isn’t that durable either. He got stopped his last bout and has been finished before in his kickboxing career in so-so fashion. Jordan has a little more pop then some of the other favourites, because of the KO risk, he will probably slot in as part of a parlay play in the Silver package. I also really like the Under in this fight, I will look at the odds and get back to you, but there is a very good chance it could be a gold play.

ALAN JOUBAN $2.35 vs SETH BACZYNSKI $1.74

I liked what I saw out of Jouban. He is far from a finished product, but he is capable of fighting both on the feet and the mat. My biggest concern is that he might be too comfortable attack off is back instead of getting back to his feet. If that is the case and he can’t hit a submission then he is losing that portion of the bout. Seth looked alright against Alves and beat Neil Magny, which appears to be more significant of late then it was initially. His chin is an issues and I have seen a couple of fights where he has had issues with his opponents’ kicking game. I am taking a bit more of a risk here, but I like what Jouban brings to this pairing. Seth is still a tough out so this fight is trending in the direction of a Bronze bet.

BRAD TAVARES $1.39 vs TIM BOETSCH $3.26

Boetsch got off to a great start after dropping to 185, but he has really struggled of late even in victory. I am 6-2 calling his fights since cutting to 185 (7-2 overall). My only slip up have been his comeback win over Okami and a questionable decision over Lombard. I am 6-2 when picking Tavares’s fights, but 0-2 in his last 2 fights. At a combined 13-4 I have a pretty good read here. Tavares represents a number of things that Boetsch has had trouble with- speed, cardio, and a more diverse striking. If Tim can’t fully integrate his wrestling into this bout, something he isn’t known for doing, he will struggle to keep up. Tavares learned a lot versus Romero and a young fighter will grow from that experience. From a betting standpoint Tavares offers a little for your parlay plays and will most likely be a gold play for me. I also like a prop bet here, but I will save that for later.

GRAY MAYNARD $2.20 vs ROSS PEARSON $1.78

How the mighty have fallen. Gray is arguably one loss away from retirement, if he shouldn’t be there already. He was one or 2 big shots or a quick stoppage from the ref away from being the champ. Since the initial draw, he has gone 1-3, with 3 knockouts and a lack luster fight with Clay. Does Gray have the tools to beat Ross? Yup. Will he implement them? I don’t know. If he comes to wrestling and force the Brit to deal with defending takedowns that will ultimately make his striking better, but most likely he just comes to bang. Throw singles, hope to land, and get boxed up and possibly knocked out in the process. Ross looked good against Diego and won that fight despite what the outcome was. I think Maynard offers more then Diego does at this point, but his chin won’t hold up like Sanchez’s did. Pearson is far from a lock here and will most likely work his way into the Silver range parlays.

RYAN BADER $1.62 vs OVINCE ST. PREUX $2.50

OSP has made some massive strides and is on quite the roll. If he gets by Bader here, especially in impressive fashion then he should get a massive push up the rankings. Unfortunately, I don’t see it. If you look at his UFC wins- Villante, Donovan, Krylov, and Jimmo aren’t exactly massive names. Bader has a bit stronger of a resume and although they were defeats he faced some of the best of the best as well. I am not a Ryan Bader fan and if he never fought for the title (I don’t think he will) it won’t break my heart. But I have liked his ability to follow a game plan of late, especially in his win over Feijao. Rafael is a dangerous fighter and Bader pretty much took him right out of his element. I think he can do the same here. Work the takedowns, break down OSP, and make him a far less effective fighter based on fatigue. OSP has looked good, but his striking is still a work in progress and his ground game is improving but taking Bader down is tough. The one area I am concerned with is the reach. Bader has trouble with fighters that can work from distance. He came up very short against Jones and landed almost nothing and let his frustration get the better of him against Machida. If OSP can create this scenario that is a massive advantage for him. I don’t think he can an short of catching Bader coming forward, Bader wins this fight. I like the play, he will be part of the gold package.


Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1. BRAD TAVARES $1.39

2. RYAN BADER $1.62

3. ZACH MAKOVSKY $1.34

4. SARA MCMANN $1.32

5. SHAWN JORDAN $1.54

====================

6. ROSS PEARSON $1.78

7. ROBBIE PERALTA $2.58

8. SAM ALVEY $2.15

9. ALAN JOUBAN $2.35

10. NOLAN TICMAN $2.40


 

Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. ROBBIE PERALTA $2.58 Robbie finds that chin and puts his opponent down.
2. Ryan Bader by Decision $4.00 There is always a risk involved when playing a Prop bet, but this play offers too much value to pass on.
3. SAM ALVEY $2.15 If I had seen a little more wrestling of the Team Quest member I would like this play even more.
4. NOLAN TICMAN $2.40 Ticman gets a bit of a bump here based almost entirely on the EPU factors.
5. ALAN JOUBAN $2.35 This is a big test for him, but I like him to simply do more then his opponent.

The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

  • Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
  • I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.

Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. JACK MAY $2.70 I would advocate that you look at the Under before playing May here, but if he can find Jordan’s chin it will be all over.
2. LAUREN MURPHY $4.05 A post title fight let down could impact McMann, but I still struggle to see how Murphy wins this fight. But, at over $4 she might be worth a small play.
3.
4.
5.

The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.

Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.

Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.

The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.

There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.


Prop Bets-

JUSSIER FORMIGA/ ZACH MAKOVSKY Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.45- This isn’t the biggest paying prop, but I like it nonetheless. With 21 of a combined 41 bouts going the distance each man has a history of going to the scorecards. They have also suffered through a combined 5 finishes and have 15 combined wins inside the distance, but I don’t see this one ending early based on their defensive skills.

ROBBIE PERALTA/ THIAGO TAVARES Total Rounds Under 2.5 $1.59- Not nearly the price point I was hoping for, but you will have both fighters working in your favour. Robbie’s knockout power/ Thiago’s chin and Thiago’s BJJ/ Robbie defensive grappling deficiencies. I will take the under.

JACK MAY/ SHAWN JORDAN Total Rounds Under $1.45- Wow, they really have no faith that this fight makes it out of the first round. Neither do I. I wish it was higher, but it will serve as a boost to a parlay bet where available.

BRAD TAVARES/ TIM BOETSCH Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.36- Not exactly a bevy of high paying prop plays, but we will roll with what we have. 8 of Tavares’s 9 UFC fights have gone the distance and 5 of 8 or Boetsch since cutting to MW. Boetsch has the higher finishing rate, but I think he has the lower success rate in this bout. Take the decision.

GRAY MAYNARD/ ROSS PEARSON Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.10- They really aren’t giving us much to work with when it comes to value here. Paying out at just over $2 for a fight to end early. Both guys have questionable chins that could bring about a premature end to the fight. I think the under is worth a play, even at this price.

RYAN BADER/ OVINCE ST. PREUX Total Rounds Over 3.5 $2.05- I look for Bader to use his wrestling, focus on controlling the position and breaking down OSP. There is a real possibility that a finish could happen, as both guys have finish skills, but I’ll take the over here based on Bader’s previous game plans vs Feijao and Rampage.

RYAN BADER to Win by Decision $4.00- “Just when I thought you couldn’t possibly be any dumber, you go and do something like this… and totally redeem yourself!”- Harry Dunne. I wasn’t that impressed with the other prop prices, but here is a very solid play with a tonne of value. They have combined for 15 decisions and 6 of Bader’s 9 UFC wins have been by decision. Too good to pass up.