UFC Fight Night 45: Cerrone vs Miller- Post Fight Breakdown & the Bet Pack
In a night filled with finishes, UFC Fight Night 45 was a great show from the first bell until the lights turned off. All in all there were 8 knockouts and a solitary submission, putting the UFC brass to the test when picking bonus recipients. Donald Cerrone picked up a massive win, Edson Barboza got back on track, and Kamikaze Overdrive (that’s me) went 8-3 overall. Let’s take a look
Claudia Gadelha dominated Tina Lahdemaki from start to finish in the first ever UFC Strawweight bout. While Gadelha didn’t get the finish, she did look good, but may need another impressive performance before she garners the title shot she in the UFC that she had been originally granted under the Invicta banner.
Unfortunately, injury marred the TKO victory of Yosdenis Cedeno who came out violently and landed some big shots against Jerrod Sanders. Another Early Preliminary Upset to add to the list.
Continuing the stoppage parade, Aljamain Sterling showed significant improvement from his debut outclassing and eventually finishing Hugo Viana- a underdog many felt had a very good chance to leave with the win.
In the Woman’s Bantamweight division, Leslie Smith made short work of Jessamyn Duke. Smith landed the more impactful shots and eventually overwhelmed her with a nice combo and head and body work.
In a battle of Lightweight ‘gatekeepers’- Pat Healy turned it on late, but couldn’t overcome a strong start from Gleison Tibau. Inexplicably, one judge gave all 3 rounds to Tibau despite Healy controlling the pace and out landing Tibau for almost the entire third round.
Opening the main card portion of the event, Lucas Matins started strong, struggled through the second round, and eventually finished Alex White who displayed some questionable striking defense and Fight IQ.
John Lineker put on an awesome performance and stopped Alp Ozkilic in the final moments of the third round. The win came possibly a day or two too late for Lineker to earn a potential title shot with the next 125 pound title challenger recently being announced.
Playing the part of the comeback kid, Joe Proctor survived a rocky first round and an expanding hematoma on his temple to score the second round knockout of Justin Salas.
Rick Story picked up another win, in dominant wrestling fashion. He ground Leonardo Mafra into the mat for the first 5 minutes and then submitted him in round 2.
Evan Dunham became the latest victim of Edson Barbosa’s ferocious kicking attack. Dunham crumbled to the canvas after catching a glancing blow to the midsection from the Brazilian and succumbed to his ensuing barrage forcing the referee to step in. With the win Barboza will most likely get another chance at a top 10 ranked opponent, while Dunham takes another step down the crowded Lightweight ranks.
Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone! Wow, when a well executed game plan. The former WEC contender landed knees and kicks to the body and then when Jim Miller was sufficiently damaged and focussed on protecting his torso- Cerrone went high with devastating results. Cerrone has now won 3 times this year and could possible fight 2 more times, maybe even 3 before the calendar runs out. He has stated that he would like to face Khabib Nurmagomedov and that fight would certainly put the winner in line for a title shot. For Jim Miller that is a massive loss that will cost him dearly in his long drawn out quest for a title shot. Miller will head back to the drawing board and try to put this defeat behind him. A match with fellow UFN 45er Evan Dunham seems appropriate.
Overall, it was a pretty exciting night of fights. With a prediction record of 8-3 that is a nice mark to build on with a quick turnaround for this Saturday’s card. The extra time spent watching fight footage helped. The bet packs were improved from recent setbacks with 2 of 3 Gold plays cashing, a perfect 5 for 5 on the Confidence List and #1 and #3 value bets paying out. Check out all of the information below and head over to the Sprawl N Brawl contest page to see who was tonight’s big winner!
UFC Fight Night 45
GOLD- Bets posted in this section will have a solid payout, involve moderate risk, but my confidence level will be high. Single bets and 2-3 fight parlays, potentially the odd prop bet.
SILVER- Bets posted in this section will have a solid to slightly higher payout, but will involved a little more risk and while I am confident enough to post these bets, I do see where we could go wrong. Single bets, 3-4 fight parlays and prop bets. More Underdogs involved.
BRONZE- Bets posted in this section will normally have the highest payouts, but also involve the most risk. Major Underdogs, larger parlays, and higher risk prop bets.
WILDCARD- This section will include bets only to be made if you have some extra cash. Most posts in this section will be long shots to hit or at least have a lot of working parts involved, but if they do the win the payout will be significant.
=================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: Leslie Smith $1.77 =================================================== Price: $1.77 x Bet: $100 Payout: $177 =================================================== Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: Donald Cerrone $1.42 Selection 2: Rick Story $1.36 Selection 3: John Lineker $1.36 =================================================== Price: $2.63 x Bet: $100 Payout: $263 =================================================== Parlay #3 =================================================== Selection 1: Claudia Gadelha/ Tina Lahdemaki Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.60 Selection 2: Alp Ozkilic/ John Lineker Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.40 =================================================== Price: $6.24 x Bet: $75 Payout: $468 =================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: Donald Cerrone to Win by Submission $5.00 =================================================== Price: $5.00 x Bet: $100 Payout: $500 =================================================== Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: Jerrod Sanders $1.77 Selection 2: Aljamain Sterling $1.56 Selection 3: Claudia Gadelha/ Tina Lahdemaki Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.60 =================================================== Price: $7.18 x Bet: $75 Payout: $538.50 =================================================== Parlay #3 =================================================== Selection 1: Alex White $1.65 Selection 2: Alp Ozkilic/ John Lineker Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.40 Selection 3: Leslie Smith $1.77 =================================================== Price: $7.01 x Bet: $100 Payout: $701 =================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: Pat Healy $2.23 Selection 2: Joe Proctor $2.25 Selection 3: Jerrod Sanders $1.77 Selection 4: Donald Cerrone $1.42 =================================================== Price: $12.62 x Bet: $100 Payout: $1262 =================================================== Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: Jerrod Sanders/ Yosdenis Cedeno Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.70 Selection 2: Leslie Smith $1.77 Selection 3: Claudia Gadelha/ Tina Lahdemaki Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.60 Selection 4: Alex White $1.65 =================================================== Price: $20.51 x Bet: $75 Payout: $1538.25 =================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: Donald Cerrone to Win by Submission $5.00 Selection 2: Claudia Gadelha/ Tina Lahdemaki Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.60 Selection 3: Leslie Smith $1.77 Selection 4: Alp Ozkilic/ John Lineker Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.40 Selection 5: Joe Proctor $2.25 =================================================== Price: $124.26 x Bet: $50 Payout: $6213
Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns
Claudia Gadelha $1.29 vs Tina Lahdemaki $4.50
This fight is the first Strawweight bout in the UFC. Two debuting fighters kicking off the card would make this a perfect scenario to promote an EPU candidate. Could Lahdemaki upset Gadelha? Possibly, but not likely. Gadelha is a monster and proved it in Invicta, formerly the top place for female fighters. Gadelha has competed at this level before, Lahdemaki has not. So I don’t think Claudia is going to be overwhelmed by the moment. Additionally, her #1 contender status in Invicta and inability to repeatedly make the weight on TUF makes her the perfect candidate to challenge for the title after the new champ is done. The UFC won’t want to jeopardize that future contenders status so I think they have hand picked this opponent. Finally, Tina’s strengths are what Claudia does as well, only better. That’s a long way of saying Gadelha is going to win. Is she worth betting on? At $1.29 I could see her adding a little value, with minimal risk. A more worthwhile play is most likely going to be the Over/Under. Check the prop section for more details.
Jerrod Sanders $1.77 vs Yosdenis Cedeno $2.25
Cedeno has some serious talent. He is a dangerous striker, but his shortcomings on the mat that he displayed in his debut are far too great to overlook. Sanders is a no nonsense wrestler and all indications are he is going to want to drag this fight to the ground ASAP. He is also a pretty good submission fighter and should be able to lock up a sub should the situation present itself. Ernest Chavez is a far less competent grappler compare to Sanders and he owned Cedeno on the floor. The knockout is a possibility and for the first few exchanges Cedeno will be dangerous, but I anticipate that if he does get back to his feet he will be slower and less aggressive. I’ll take the skilled grappler over the flashy striker here. Sanders has some solid value and should work into your 2-3 fighter parlays.
Hugo Viana $2.74 vs Aljamain Sterling $1.56
I gave Viana a long look but in the end went with Sterling. The thing that kept popping into my head with Viana is that he is predictable. He doesn’t vary his attack that well. Leap, swing big loop hooks, retract, mix in a kick and repeat. If he can land he looks like a killer, but when he can’t he looks out of sorts or ineffective. Additionally, even if Hugo can defend the early TDAs, he will slow down in rounds 2 and 3 and that will open the door for Sterling to get it rolling. I would like to see Sterling a bit higher in price, but he is still serviceable for your parlay plays.
Jessamyn Duke $2.20 vs Leslie Smith $1.77
I was hoping Smith was going to be the dog here and she may still be if the line continues to move. Duke is a product of TUF and while she did alright on the show and won her debut, now she is out in the big leagues. She dropped her first fight and now facing another solid vet. Smith doesn’t have a tonne of fights, but facing Sarah Kaufmann for a combined 6 rounds is a great experience to help a fighter grow. Keep in mind he debut was on very short notice and against a fighter that is easily one of the top 5 in the world. Smith will pressure Duke and outwork her. Duke does not have the power to back Smith off or the skill to adjust mid-fight and overcome the forward pressure. I am looking at Smith being a key part of the parlay bets, I feel pretty strong about her winning this and she will be a staple play.
Gleison Tibau $1.79 vs Pat Healy $2.23
I really went back and forth on this one. I watched so much footage trying to find an edge. What it came down to was Nurmagomedov vs Tibau. Gleison could defend, but he didn’t mount enough offense. Healy does an excellent job of coming forward and breaking guys down with his pressure. Even if he can’t land takedowns, he lands punches, continually, and forces guys to backup and defend and that will tire a guy like Tibau down. There is a real chance that Tibau shoots the double and grounds him long enough to steal the fight like he did against Jamie Varner, but keep in mind Healy is a big LW too and a strong wrestler. He may get taken down a couple of times early, but I can see him turning this fight in his favour. Tibau’s chin has also been a bit of a concern of late get hurt in a couple of fights and then KOed by Johnson. Healy isn’t flashy but he hits hard and if he can start to break Tibau down he could stop him.
Alex White $1.65 vs Lucas Martins $2.45
Here is another one of those lines that I wasn’t sure how it would open. Martins has had some success after a rough start while White is making just his second start after quickly dispatching a pretty solid veteran in his debut. If Martins can land he can put his opponent down, but his wild style will cost him. White is a pretty solid striker and should be able capitalize on the openings of Martins who is very hittable. You might want to wait on this line because I see it moving a little in White’s favour. Even if it stays here he is a solid player in your parlays and gives you some decent bang for your buck.
Alp Ozkilic $3.54 vs John Lineker $1.36
The Over/Under on John John’s weight might be an interesting bet. The guy is a killer when he is on and until he fought Ali he was on a nice run that had some taking title shot. Alp presents that wrestling front that could be a challenge, but honestly he isn’t nearly as refined as Ali was. Lineker will sprawl, use his size/ strength and force Alp to bang it out on the feet with him. I don’t think Alp has faced anyone quite as dangerous as John on the feet so the Under might be an option, but leaving this fight alone altogether is also an option.
Joe Proctor $2.25 vs Justin Salas $1.76
Not a big fan of Salas. He can beat the lower level guys, but has struggled against better competition. Where does Proctor fit into the mix? I like Proctor’s gritty style. He is durable, his striking is improving, and training his BJJ under Joe Lauzon makes him a threat on the mat. Conversely, all of Salas’s losses have been finishes. For a wrestler his success taking guys down has been pretty poor, even against lower competition. I foresee Proctor using his height and locking up a high elbow guillotine once Salas tries to change levels on his against the cage. Should be an entertaining scrap, I like Joe. I will be taking a shot on a single bet here, solid play, value might drop a little so don’t wait.
Rick Story $1.36 vs Leonardo Mafra $3.51
This is the type of fight that Story usually wins and then he gets a push back up the ladder and comes up short. He is filling in on short notice and there are a lot of fighters like Story that hang on to their significance by winning these type of fights and then one day they simply come up flat. Could that be this fight? I don’t know. Mafra is wild, leaves openings, and gasses. All of those faults are a recipe for disaster against Story and it shows up here. Story will either ground him and drop shots or pin him on the cage with vicious body shots before dropping him. I like Story here and while he doesn’t give you the biggest bang for your buck he still works on a parlay. Hopefully he jumps over $1.40, that would be nice.
Edson Barboza $1.42 vs Evan Dunham $3.31
Edson’s chin is going to prevent him from reaching that next level and could very well cost him this fight. Dunham keeps coming forward and landing shots and he may only need one to change the complexion of the fight. On the other side, I like Barboza to pound those leg kicks into him and further magnify the speed and technical advantage he has over Dunham. I will take a shot on Barboza for a parlay play, but nothing too extensive. What I am looking at is the Over. This fight seems to be the type of bout that has potential to end early on either side, but will go the distance. There will be damage dished out on both side, but the Over will have some value too because of their finishing histories.
Donald Cerrone $1.42 vs Jim Miller $3.36
The UFC has taken 2 guys that have been in the hunt for a while, but couldn’t get that big win and placed them head to head. Winner could get #1 contender’s bout. I like Cerrone’s range striking to play a major role in how this fight plays out. He does need to get off to a good start as he is a bit of a slow starter and Miller can be quick on the trigger. Miller is a beast on the mat, but I don’t see him holding Cerrone down or submitting him. Cerrone has been facing better competition of late and more complete fighters then Miller. That will show up here. I like the striking, especially the knees/ kicks of Cerrone to take a lot out of Miller and lead to a knockdown/ submission scenario. I will play Cerrone in a parlay and might consider him by submission for a prop bet which will probably pay well considering how good Miller is on the mat.
Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)
1. Claudia Gadelha $1.29
2. Rick Story $1.36
3. John Lineker $1.36
4. Leslie Smith $1.77
5. Donald Cerrone $1.42
6. Alex White $1.65
7. Jerrod Sanders $1.77
8. Edson Barboza $1.42
9. Aljamain Sterling $1.56
10. Joe Proctor $2.25
11. Pat Healy $2.23
Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)
|1.||Joe Proctor||$2.25||Salas is still unproven and simply too inconsistent to be a favourite over a guy at a similar point in his career. I’ll take Proctor|
|2.||Pat Healy||$2.23||Could Bam Bam drop this one? Sure, there are avenues for both guys to win it, but I have seen signs of Tibau slipping a bit over his last couple of fights and Healy could exploit that cardio to the utmost.|
|3.||Leslie Smith||$1.77||I keep harping on this but going toe to toe versus Kaufman is a massive gain even though she went 0-2. Her first performance in the Octagon was impacted by the short training camp. She will be better.|
|4.||Jerrod Sanders||$1.77||If Cedeno can land Sanders could be in serious trouble, but it is awfully hard to knock someone out from your back.|
|5.||Alex White||$1.65||White is still relatively new and I usually don’t roll with a favourite who has limited UFC experience against a guy who has a handful of fights, but when the odds are set like they are under this scenario there is some method to the madness.|
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
- Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
- I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.
Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)
|1.||Evan Dunham||$3.31||With Barboza’s chin Dunham could very well pull this one out, remember Cerrone dropped him with a jab.|
|2.||Alp Ozkilic||$3.54||Lineker should take this but he pays too poorly and is too big of a wildcard to invest in. Depending on how the weigh-ins go for John John, Alp might be worth a small look.|
The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.
Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.
Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.
The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.
There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.
Claudia Gadelha/ Tina Lahdemaki Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.60- 7 of Gadelha’s 11 wins have come inside the first round. She is a violent fighter and will be looking to make a great impression against a relatively inexperienced fighter stepping up from a still developing region scene. Additionally, the UFC has eyes on Gadelha as the first non-TUF title challenger and will want to make her look like a monster.
Jerrod Sanders/ Yosdenis Cedeno Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.70- Both fighters have finishing skills. Sanders on the mat and Cedeno on the feet. With a combined 14 finishes under the 2.5 mark this fight has a lot of potential to finish early.
Alex White/ Lucas Martins Total Rounds Over 1.5 $1.83- This fight has a tonne of potential to hit the Under as both guys are aggressive strikers. But 10 of their combined 25 fights have gone over the 1.5 mark and a couple other close one. Round 1 will be back and forth and then its all down hill from there after the first 5. I’ll take my chances here.
Alp Ozkilic/ John Lineker Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.40- 18 of Lineker’s fights have finished inside the 2.5 limit and against a fighter like Alp that doesn’t have a tonne of experience dealing with big power I expect this one isn’t going to the cards.
Evan Dunham/ Edson Barboza Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.90- This fights screams early finish. Dunham is durable and should be able to survive most of what Edson throws his way. There is a real possibility that Evan could land a shot and hurt Edson, but I’ll take the over.
Donald Cerrone to Win by Submission $5.00- Miller has only been submitted once officially (Healy) and that is why this pays so well. I doubt Cerrone can take this fight to the ground and simply pull off a sub, but I see him at some point in the 5 rounds hurting Jimmy and then locking up a sub. Donald’s knockout numbers are so low because every time he huts his opponent his first instinct is to look for a sub. $5.00 is more then enough incentive to try that play.