UFC Fight Night 43 & 44- Post Fight Breakdown & the Bet Pack

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This weekend was filled with great fights and some upsets. The double header kicked off with the late fight night in Auckland, New Zealand. This fight card had some back and forth fights, along with some great finishes. Neil Magny once again came home with another impressive victory, finishing Rodrgio de Lima by TKO. We then saw the prelim headliner showcase the youngest fighter in the UFC to date, Jake Matthews submit boxing veteran, Dashon Johnson in the 3rd round via triangle choke. The young man was very impressive, and is someone to look out for.

The main card came around at 5 A.M. EST, and it kicked off with a great performance by Robert Whittaker taking Mike Rhodes to a unanimous decision, breaking down Rhodes with great combos. The next fight was a grappling battle between two featherweights, wanting to make a statement. They went back and forth in the clinch and on the ground. In the end, Charles Oliveria locked in the d’arce choke on Hatsu Hioki, who saw his first submission loss. The co-main event was a big disappointment. Jared Rosholt dominated Soa Palelei on the ground, mainly laying on him, but landing some good shots. I was very disappointed in Soa’s performane. He seemed to gas out once the fight went into the second round. He really needs to improve his cardio.

The main event came next, and both fighters had to make a point in their newly acquired divisions. James came out strong, swinging and clinching with Nate. Te Huna then ate a huge knee in the clinch and was rocked. He quickly got up and then went to work on Nate, landing some shots that wobbled him a bit. He then made a questionable move by clinching with Marquardt after rocking him. Nate landed on Te Huna’s back and went for the RNC. He was shooken off, only to catch James in a textbook armbar, and got the finish in Te Huna’s hometown.

UFC San Antonio started the same day at 7:30 EST with two debuting heavyweights. Oleksiy Oliynyk defeated Anthony Hamilton by cobra choke in the first round. Ray Borg also got a submission win in the first round, solidifying his place in the flyweight division. We then saw a very controversial stoppage take place. Johnny Bedford rocked Cody Gibson early in the first round, he then dropped his guard to be met by a right hand by Gibson and fell straight back. Bedford was not knocked out and was trying to get up from Gibson’s shot, but before Cody could land any significant strikes, Kerry Hatley stopped the fight. Bedford protested heavily, but that couldn’t change anything. I also agree the stoppage was very pre-mature.

The main card featured six fights that all went to a decision, but they were filled with action. Ellenberger was rocked many times in the first round against Moontasri, only to come back in the 2nd and 3rd round, and get the split decision win. The underdog, Clint Hester got the best of Antonio Braga Neto on the feet, and picked up a split decision of his own. Ricardo Lamas met a very good opponent in Hacran Dias, that gave Lamas a run for his ranking position. Ricardo overcame adversity and got the decision win. We then learned post-fight that Lamas broke his hand early in the fight. Cezar Ferreira and Andrew Craig shared a dull fight, that had its moments in the 3rd round. Both fighters had urgency going into the 3rd, and it paid off for Ferreira, when he got a couple takedowns, and improved his striking game. Kelvin Gastelum saw trouble in the first round against Nicholas Musoke when he was defending a RNC for the majority on the first. Kelvin then dominated the rest of the fight, landing great combos that kept putting Musoke in trouble. He got a decision win. The main event came along, which featured two 145ers that were battling for a title shot. Cub Swanson was a little shocked by Stephen’s heavy hands that had him down a round or two. The fight progressed and Swanson got the best of Jeremy by landing his own combos that dragged the fight to a full 25 minutes. Cub got the win and hopefully the winner of Aldo/Mendes.


UFC Fight Nights 43 & 44

Parlay Breakdowns

In an effort to accommodate different styles of MMA Bettors I have compiled 7 different possible betting cards to help you maximize your profit depending on what style of gambler you are and how much money you want to allocate to each card. Big Money Bettors- for players with a higher bankroll willing to put a lot of cash on the line to turn a profit and build a growing account, focusing mainly on single bets and well placed parlays.

Recreational Bettors- for players that will allocate a decent sized bankroll per event, but would rather spread out their bets and try and turn smaller investments into big returns with larger parlays.

For Fun Bettors- for players that are putting a little bit of cash on the line just to have a good time and have no problem playing a high risk parlay hoping to cash that big payday.

Big Money Bettor, Budget: $500

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Soa Palelei $2.39
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Price: $2.39 x Bet: $100
Payout: $239
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Cody Gibson $3.06
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Price: $3.06 x Bet: $50
Payout: $153
 
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Parlay #3
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Selection 1: Anthony Hamilton $2.23
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Price: $2.23 x Bet: $75
Payout: $167.75
 
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Parlay #4
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Selection 1: Cub Swanson $1.41
Selection 2: Charles Oliveira $1.56
Selection 3: Antonio Braga Neto $1.67
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Price: $3.68 x Bet: $100
Payout: $368
 
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Parlay #5
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Selection 1: Ricardo Lamas $1.54
Selection 2: James Te Huna $1.49
Selection 3: Richie Vaculik $1.69
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Price: $3.84 x Bet: $100
Payout: $384
 
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Parlay #6
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Selection 1: Neil Magny $1.37
Selection 2: Robert Whittaker $1.37
Selection 3: Jake Matthews $1.79
Selection 4: Chris Indich $2.03
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Price: $6.82 x Bet: $75
Payout: $511.50

Recreational Bettor, Budget: $200

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Soa Palelei $2.39
Selection 2: Charles Oliveira $1.56
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Price: $3.73 x Bet: $75
Payout: $279.75
 
Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Cub Swanson $1.41
Selection 2: Antonio Braga Neto $1.67
Selection 3: Richie Vaculik $1.69
Selection 4: Jake Matthews $1.79
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Price: $7.13 x Bet: $75
Payout: $534.75
 
Parlay #3
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Selection 1: Anthony Hamilton $2.23
Selection 2: Andy Enz $1.56
Selection 3: James Te Huna $1.49
Selection 4: Ricardo Lamas $1.54
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Price: $7.99 x Bet: $50
Payout: $399.50
 

For Fun Bettor, Budget: $50

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Soa Palelei $2.39
Selection 2: Antonio Braga Neto $1.67
Selection 3: James Te Huna $1.49
Selection 4: Ricardo Lamas $1.54
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Price: $9.16 x Bet: $25
Payout: $229 

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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Anthony Hamilton $2.23
Selection 2: Jake Matthews $1.79
Selection 3: Richie Vaculik $1.69
Selection 4: Charles Oliveira $1.56
Selection 5: Cub Swanson $1.41
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Price: $14.84 x Bet: $25
Payout: $371
 

Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns

Gian Villante $1.35 vs Sean O’Connell $3.57

This is a fight I am not that confident in. Villante has looked anything but good of late, but O’Connell is a perfect opponent for him to get back on track. I would expect that Gian hits a one-hitter quitter and ends it inside the first half of the bout, but honestly the way he fought against Cody Donovan I the first round has me concerned. If O’Connell can remain active he can simply outwork him, but that is a big if. With so many fights this weekend I will use Gian very sparingly or not at all.

Neil Magny $1.37 vs Rodrigo de Lima $3.57

Magny is finally getting put in the role of the favourite after back to back wins as the dog. He clearly is turning out to be the best product to come out of his season of TUF despite getting KOed in the semi-finals by the guy who lost in the finals. de Lima is making his debut and if he can get this fight to the floor he has the skills to win it. I’m not a 100% sold on his ability to get it there, so I will roll with Neil here. He doesn’t offer a tonne of value but there is enough there to use him on a parlay bet to keep my bets diversified.

Chris Indich $2.03 vs Vik Grujic $1.90

I have a few leans here in favour of Indich, but this was a tough fight to gauge. Neither man showed that much on TUF, even in Vik’s win it was pretty basic and too one-sided to get a good feel on it. The higher Indich climbs in value the more willing I will be to play him. I could see this fight be a little ugly and while Indich doesn’t appear that have that much upside. Vik cutting to 170 from 185 at 37 years old has me a little concerned. I will still take a shot here with him in  a parlay, he has a little pop, but this fight could really go either way. Richie Vaculik $1.69 vs Roldan Sangcha-an $2.53

I like Vaculik here at this price. Sangcha-an is making his debut on short notice with limited experience- just 4 fights. Additionally, he has never fought anyone at this level before, especially on the mat. I was actually really impressed with what I saw from Roldan, but what this fight comes down to is that he is just willing enough to engage on the mat to get himself in trouble. Vaculik is very solid on the floor and unless Roldan rises to the occasion, Richie gets it done horizontally. The striking could be interesting, but Richie is a vet and will recognize where this fight is his to win. He is a perfect fit for a parlay bet there and I will use him on a couple of cards.

Jake Matthews $1.79 vs Dashon Johnson $2.25

I am loving Matthews at this price. Johnson is a capable fighter, but I think that Jake has the ground skills to make this fight a nightmare for him. Jake is a TUF fighter and he is very young. He fits the mold of the type of fighter that makes massive strides between the last time he was seen on the show and his official debut. With the UFC wanting to keep expanding into new markets they need new stars to build around from that region. Matthews could be one of those guys for Australia and that is why he is getting the undercard main event treatment. The UFC is looking to showcase him here and I think he responds. Matthews fits well in the high $1.70’s on my parlay and I will consider him an option for a single bet if he adds any more value between now and then. Robert Whittaker $1.37 vs Mike Rhodes $3.57

Rhodes is better then this line would indicate. He didn’t have a great debut, but young fighters respond differently in that type of situation and I expect to see something better this time around. Whittaker is a bit of an unorthodox striker which can throw guys off when they start to engage and I think he will learn from his loss to Court McGee. Unfortunately, the value here isn’t huge. Rhodes has the skills to spoil the party which has been hesitating to pull the trigger in any really big way. I still think Whittaker will show up in a parlay bet at least once, but that is probably it. Charles Oliveira $1.56 vs Hatsu Hioki $2.69

I am really looking forward to this fight. Both guys are excellent on the mat and more then capable on the feet. The winner here most likely gets a push up to face a top 15 ranked fighter. I like Oliveira’s striking a lot more then Hioki. I think he is more dynamic and while I don’t see him finishing the fight standing- he can be carry the flow there. On the mat Hioki is a great technician, but he hasn’t overwhelmed me with his skill of late. He has struggled with aggressive ground fighters (Elkins, Lamas- Guida fight was a bit iffy) and he should have looked much better against an undersized Menjivar. Oliveira strikes me as the type that can simply outwork and out finesses Hatsu on the floor. The price here is solid and Charles makes the cut as a parlay regular for me. Jared Rosholt $1.68 vs Soa Palelei $2.39

I really like Soa here. Jared has had some issues with heavy hitters and Soa is one of the heaviest. If Rosholt can’t get this fight to the floor, which was the case in the first 2 rounds vs Walt Harris- he is very pedestrian. It will be interesting to see a) if Soa can put Jared on his back ( I think he can) and b) how Jared responses there (wrestlers aren’t that familiar with this position). This is a step up for both men compared to who they have faced of late. Soa is fighting close to home which  will be big for him and the travel issues for Rosholt will be massive concern. Most likely, Jared won’t be fully acclimatized to the time so for his body it will be early in the morning when this fight goes down. Soa makes the cut here as one of my bigger plays and will be a big single bet- potentially the biggest. James Te Huna $1.49 vs Nate Marquardt $2.86

A former Welterweight (who formerly fought at Middleweight) returns to the division to meet a guy coming down from Light Heavyweight. Lets take a look at the degrees of separation here. Nate fought Woodley, who fought BJ, who is preparing to fight Frankie Edgar at 145. Te Huna fought Glover, who fought Fabio Maldonado, who just fought Stipe Miocic. Crazy (I know you can do this with a lot of fighters, but its still fun). Brass tacks; Te Huna hits hard and Marquardt is getting chinny everyday. I am concerned about Te Huna making the cut to 185 and how that impacts his ability to fighter deeper into this fight. What I do like is his ability to pressure and barnstorm Nate against the wall until something lands. At $1.49 I will include him on a parlay, maybe 2. Nate is the more skilled fighter, but this is a bad matchup for him here. I won’t go overboard as there are more options then normal this weekend, but he still has his place.

Oleksiy Oliynyk $1.73 vs Anthony Hamilton $2.23 

This fight is an EPU (Early Prelim Upset) candidate. I think that Double O is getting a boost here because he has wins over a couple of notable opponents in Mirko and Jeff Monson. Unfortunately those names on your Wikipedia/Sherdog record brings more to the table then they do inside the cage. Hamilton is going to have a huge size advantage and he comes from a wrestling background. That should buy him enough time to land a big shot and test Oliynk’s chin which has been stopped 4 times. Hamilton is going to be worth a single bet here, he has good value and against a guy that has fought as low as 185 I like his chances. Russians are always the best of the best, even though they would tell you otherwise.

Shane Howell $4.36 vs Ray Borg $1.26

To save time and my fingers. Borg wins this fight but at $1.26 he simply isn’t worth the risk. What I do like here those is the possibility of a well paying Under. I will have to evaluate it more thoroughly in the props sections. If its just 1.5 it will have to pay well, I’m looking more for the $2.25ish at 2.5 rounds. I will keep you posted. Marcelo Guimaraes $2.60 vs Andy Enz $1.56

I don’t like Marcelo as a fighter, nothing personal, and I was surprised that he is still with the company. Enz isn’t all that talented, but he is a gritty and durable fighter which will pay dividends against a fighter that isn’t that technical on the feet. If Marcelo opts for a ground based attack then he could be okay, but his wrestling is too inconsistent (or consistently bad) to consider in this fight. Additionally, with MG moving to Middleweight that may make it tougher for him to take bigger men down. I was hoping Enz had a little more value, but we can work with this. Play him in your parlays 1-2 max. Johnny Bedford $1.43 vs Cody Gibson $3.06

To be 100% honest with you there is just something about Gibson that I like. I can’t put my finger on it, but there is just something there. I almost took him in his debut, but Sterling was simply too talented. For Bedford he is very skilled, but that submission flaw is massive. It hadn’t plagued him for a long time and then Caraway brought it back front in center. With Gibson he is a good striker, good on the ground, and is only getting better. Plus he carries a certain swagger that can take him places. I had a hard time voicing in my prediction why I picked Gibson, but I did. Deal with it. He warrants a single bet there, but don’t go overboard. Bedford is tough. Colton Smith $2.46 vs Carlos Diego Ferreira $1.48

Colton could be the worst TUF champ still on the roster excluding China. Can he get better, sure, will the UFC be patient enough to let him? Probably not. They are trying to improve his record by adding his TUF wins to the count, with it he is 6-3, without I believe that he is 4-3. Another loss here and that record is getting awfully unappealing. My pick here was based largely on Smith not being great as opposed to like what CDF brings to the fight. For that reason I will probably take a wide birth and only include the Brazilian on one of my fringe parlays. A bet that I would love to see win, but if it doesn’t I will survive. Antonio Braga Neto $1.67 vs Clint Hester $2.38

Hester has to be so careful here, but he also has to do enough to avoid getting outworked on the feet. We have seen it before where a striker avoids getting grappled to death, but struggles to mount enough offense on the feet. Defense wins championships, but that really doesn’t hold true here. I struggle to see Neto not being able to latch onto a leg of Hester, trip him to the ground and either take top control or finish him with some sort of leg based submission. The value is there. I’ll take Neto on a parlay and may consider the Under as well. Ricardo Lamas $1.54 vs Hacran Dias $2.75

I hope that Lamas doesn’t have the post title fight letdown that has bothered others before. Dias is no slouch and his camp will have a tonne of information on Ricardo. I still think Lamas is hungry and knows he needs a win to stay in the hunt. His wrestling hasn’t been as good as many would perceive it to be, but it should be strong enough to keep this fight standing if that is where he wants it to be. He is worth a play in the $1.50 range and will most likely make an appearance on 1, maybe 2 parlays. Cezar Ferreria $1.54 vs Andrew Craig $2.69

I am really not that big of a fan of Ferreria. He has skill, but I want to see him execute at a more consistent level before I start touting him as a legit threat at MW. For Craig, I think he believed his own hype a little too much when he fought Barnatt and that cost him dearly. I honestly wouldn’t be shocked to see Craig steal a win here, but when you look back at his record his only true win came over Chris Leben. Take that for what it is worth. His fights verus Noke and Natal where far from clear victories. In the end, I will play Cezar the same way I play Lamas. On parlays, but nothing too significant that he wrecks my night with a loss. Kelvin Gastelum $1.28 vs Nico Musoke $4.25

I will try to makeup some time here. Gastelum just missed weight, that is disappointing. But he still wins this. Musoke is chinny and won’t be able to deal with his power/ speed. Unfortunately the $1.28 isn’t the least bit interesting, the Under is though. Check the prop section for the final say.

Cub Swanson $1.41 vs Jeremy Stephens $3.21

This is a massive opportunity for Stephens that many felt he would never get, at least not at 155. That being said, I saw some of his flaws creep back into his fight versus Elkins. He was tossing hands in search of a knockout and not setting up his strikes nearly as well as he had. I can’t see him wrestling Swanson and I think Cub’s speed will give him troubles both offensively and defensively. Stephens won’t land enough to win a decision, but we know he is capable of winning with just one big shot. I think Cub has the ability to avoid/ counter and land a big one that sends Jeremy tumbling to the mat, so the under or knockout win is a possibility. I’ll play Swanson here on my parlays with regularity, I feel confident here that he wins. A prop bet could also show up.


Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1. Kelvin Gastelum $1.28

2. Cub Swanson $1.41

3. Ray Borg $1.26

4. Charles Oliveira $1.56

5. Neil Magny $1.37

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6. Soa Palelei $2.39

7. Antonio Braga Neto $1.67

8. Ricardo Lamas $1.54

9. James Te Huna $1.49

10. Richie Vaculik $1.69

11. Robert Whittaker $1.37

12. Jake Matthews $1.79

13. Gian Villante $1.35

14. Carlos Diego Ferreira $1.48

15. Andy Enz $1.56

16. Cezar Ferreria $1.54

17. Anthony Hamilton $2.23

18. Cody Gibson $3.06

19. Chris Indich $2.03

 


Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1.  Soa Palelei  $2.39
2.  Anthony Hamilton  $2.23
3.  Jake Matthews  $1.79
4.  Cody Gibson  $3.06
5.  Chris Indich  $2.03

The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

  • Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
  • I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.

Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1.  N/A
2.
3.
4.
5.

The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up. Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic. Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10. The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line. There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.


Prop Bets-

*Unfortunately time restraints will prevent me from going into detail here, you will have to take these plays at face value.

Gian Villante/ Sean O’Connell Total Rounds Over 1.5 $1.67

Robert Whittaker/ Mike Rhodes Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.67

Soa Palelei/ Jared Rosholt Total Rounds Under 1.5 $1.87

Jame Te Huna/ Nate Marquardt Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.05

Ray Borg/ Shane Howell Total Rounds Over 1.5 $1.87

Clint Hester/ Antonio Braga Neto Total Rounds Under 1.5 $1.83

Kelvin Gastelum/ Nick Musoke Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.05

Jeremy Stephens/ Cub Swanson Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.67