UFC Fight Night 42- Post Fight Breakdown & the Bet Pack

mARTIN pEDERSEN

 

UFC Fight Night 42 Recap 

Fight Night 42 had a little bit of everything. A lot of fighters gassed in the altitude, there were a few back & forth stand-up battles, a few good grappling battles, a highway robbery decision, & Benson Henderson finishing a fight for the first time in over 4 years. Overall myself & everyone at Kamikaze Overdrive went 8-3.

Pat Cummins defeated Roger Narvaez by 2nd round TKO

Pat came out a little tentative & didn’t do much for the first half of the opening round. Once he got it going though, it was all Cummins & he finished off Narvaez with some nice GNP in the 2nd round. This was the kind of fight Cummins needed after being dominated in his UFC debut. I hope they bring Cummins along slowly instead thrusting him into a big fight that he doesn’t deserve.

Jon Tuck defeated Jake Lindsey by 3rd round TKO

Tuck dominated this fight but got pretty lucky that Lindsey gassed just as bad as he did after the first round. Lindsey had his moments & opportunities but if he’s going to make it in the UFC then he will need to become a full time fighter. As for Tuck, he needs to improve his cardio & I would like to see him against someone that pushes a fast pace.

Scott Jorgensen defeated Danny Martinez by unanimous decision 30-27, 29-28, & 29-28

This was a good back & forth battle with each man having their moments but I gave all 3 rounds to Jorgensen because of the takedowns. Martinez was much better on the feet but Jorgensen used his wrestling to consistently out-grapple & out-point Martinez. This is the 2nd fight in a row where Martinez lost because of his takedown defense. If given a 3rd fight inside the occtagon, he will needs to fix that takedown defense or it’ll be the same result. I think Jorgensen is basically done but he will continue to get fights because of his resume & reputation.

Lance Benoist defeated Bobby Voelker by unanimous decision 30-27, 29-28. & 29-28

Benoist had a lot of cage rust & did gas but so did Voelker. All 3 rounds were fairly close but I had it 29-28 Benoist. I think Benoist looked good considering the long layoff & I would like to see him back in action soon. As for Voelker, this has to be it for him in the UFC right??? Voelker always puts on a good show but he is now 0-4 in the UFC. The only way I see him getting another fight is if he’s an injury fill in on short notice to basically be someone’s stepping stone.

Sergio Pettis beat Yaotzin Meza by unanimous decision 29-28 on all cards

Sergio did just enough to win 2 of the 3 rounds but it was much closer than the line suggested it would be. This was another underwhelming performance for Sergio inside the octagon. He was very tentative & a better fighter than Meza would’ve easily beaten the young Pettis. I hope Sergio’s next opponent is against someone in the top 15 because it is definitely time to find out if this Pettis is more than just Anthony’s little brother.

Bryan Caraway defeated Erik Perez by 2nd round RNC submission

This was a very entertaining back & forth battle but in the end, Caraway’s grappling turned out to be too much for Perez. Caraway was relentless with his submission attacks & was able to sink in the rear naked choke in the 2nd round. I give Perez a lot of credit because his submission defense held up for longer than I thought it would. Perez is a good fighter but I doubt he will ever crack the top 10. As for Caraway, I hope he gets a big name in his next fight because he is definitely a lot better than people are giving him credit for.

Piotr Hallmann defeated Yves Edwards by 3rd round RNC submission

This was an outstanding performance by Hallmann & was definitely his best since debuting in the UFC. Edwards came to fight but Hallmann was able weather the small storm & dominate all 3 rounds before getting the submission. Hallmann definitely shined in this fight & I hope he gets a ranked opponent soon. As for the 37 year old Edwards, he’s now 1-5 in his last 6 & it should be time for his UFC career to come to an end.

Rafael Dos Anjos deated Jason High by 2nd round TKO

I took a chance on the big dog here & High did have his chances but in the end, Dos Anjos was just too much for High. I do think the ref stepped in a little early because High was attempting to defend himself while getting up but I also can’t call it a bad stoppage. High definitely needs to improve his cardio but I think he will do just fine at lightweight. As for Dos Anjos, he needs to fight another top contender & work towards a title shot.

John Dodson defeated John Moraga by 2nd round TKO (Doctors stoppage)

This was a back & forth battle but was pretty uneventful because both men showed too much respect for their opponent. In the end, it was Dodson’s power that proved to be too much as he had Moraga backing up & caught him with a knee that broke Moraga’s nose. I don’t really think too much of Moraga so maybe he can fight Bagautinov after he loses to Mighty Mouse next Saturday. Dodson should definitely get his rematch with Mighty Mouse before the end of the year.

Diego Sanchez defeated Ross Pearson by controversial split decision 30-27, 27-30, & 29-28

This has robbery of 2014 all wrapped up. Some are even calling it the worst decision in UFC history. I won’t go that far but it was pretty bad. Pearson outlanded Sanchez by nearly 2 to 1, had the takedown edge, & the knockdown edge. Pearson was much more technical & Sanchez looked frustrated because he just couldn’t land much. In the end, Sanchez got the home town gift from 2 judges that should never ben allowed to judge MMA again. Just like most, I had it 30-27 Pearson & was absolutely stunned when the decision was read. I hope Dana makes this right & pays Pearson his win bonus because we all know that he didn’t lose that fight. Diego called out Nate Diaz for the PPV in Mexico later on this year but I doubt Diaz will take the fight. If Diaz does take the fight then it’ll definitely be a must watch.

Benson Henderson defeated Rustam Khabilov by 4th round RNC submission

This was a great fight! Khabilov came to win & definitely wasn’t scared of Bendo. This went back & forth with the first 3 rounds all being very close. As the fight continued Bendo started figuring out Khabilov’s grappling & was able to keep it standing before hitting a big uppercut that dropped the Russian. After that, Bendo hit him again & started working for the choke until Khabilov finally tapped. This was a very fun fight! I think both men walk away looking better now than when they came in. For Khabilov, I hope he gets another top 10 opponent but someone outside of the top 5. As for Bendo, only a fight against Nurmagomedov for the #1 contendship makes sense to me. I would love to see that fight.

 


UFC Fight Night 42

Parlay Breakdowns

Big Money Bettor, Budget: $500

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Lance Benoist $2.25
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Price: $2.25 x Bet: $100
Payout: $225
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Jake Lindsey $2.43
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Price: $2.43 x Bet: $75
Payout: $182.25
 
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Parlay #3
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Selection 1: Ben Henderson to Win by Decision $2.15
Selection 2: Ross Pearson $1.56
Selection 3: Piotr Hallmann $1.58
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Price: $5.30 x Bet: $100
Payout: $530
 
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Parlay #4
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Selection 1: Erik Perez $1.99
Selection 2: Rafael Dos Anjos $1.34
Selection 3: Pettis/ Meza Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.30
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Price: $6.14 x Bet: $100
Payout: $614
 
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Parlay #5
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Selection 1: Piotr Hallmann/ Yves Edwards Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.66
Selection 2: Scott Jorgensen $1.49
Selection 4: Jake Lindsey/ Jon Tuck Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.88
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Price: $4.65 x Bet: $75
Payout: $348.75
 
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Parlay #6
===================================================
Selection 1: Lance Benoist $2.25
Selection 2: Ben Henderson to Win by Decision $2.15
Selection 3: Ross Pearson $1.56
===================================================
Price: $7.55 x Bet: $50
Payout: $377.50

Recreational Bettor, Budget: $200

==================================================
Parlay #1
===================================================
Selection 1: Lance Benoist $2.25
Selection 2: Ben Henderson to Win by Decision $2.15
Selection 3: Rafael Dos Anjos $1.34
===================================================
Price: $6.49 x Bet: $75
Payout: $486.75
 
Parlay #2
===================================================
Selection 1: Piotr Hallmann $1.58
Selection 2: Ross Pearson $1.56
Selection 3: Erik Perez $1.99
===================================================
Price: $4.91 x Bet: $75
Payout: $368.25
 
Parlay #3
===================================================
Selection 1: Jake Lindsey $2.43
Selection 2: Sergio Pettis/ Yaotzin Meza Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.30
Selection 3: Benson Henderson $1.43
Selection 4: Rafael Dos Anjos $1.34
===================================================
Price: $10.71 x Bet: $50
Payout: $535.50

For Fun Bettor, Budget: $50

===================================================
Parlay #1
===================================================
Selection 1: Lance Benoist $2.25
Selection 2: Jake Lindsey $2.43
Selection 3: Ben Henderson to Win by Decision $2.15
Selection 4: Erik Perez $1.99
===================================================
Price: $23.40 x Bet: $25
Payout: $585

 

Parlay #2
===================================================
Selection 1: Pettis/ Meza Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.30
Selection 2: Rafael Dos Anjos $1.34
Selection 3: Piotr Hallmann $1.58
Selection 4: Benson Henderson $1.43
Selection 5: Ross Pearson $1.56
===================================================
Price: $10.87 x Bet: $25
Payout: $271.75
 
 

Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns

Patrick Cummins $1.33 vs Roger Narvaez $4.00

Nope, Cummins has 5 total fights and less then 2 minutes of UFC experience. Narvaez is making his debut. On paper Cummins should win this fight, but we don’t fight on paper. We fight on canvas, blood, sweat, tears, and determination. A little over the top. The point is, this is the type of fight that frequently ends in an upset so with the upside on Cummin’s value is limited so I will pass. I would almost consider a bet on Narvaez here considering he pays 4 on the dollar. We will see how the rest of the betting option look before I put together my non-predicted value list.

Jake Lindsey $2.43 vs Jon Tuck $1.65

I was back and forth on this fight. It was a my last prediction so I had a little more time and consequently was able to give it a little more thought. Tuck is the more accredited fighter, but his gas tank is a massive concern. He slowed down significantly against Parke and a win over Tiequan Zhang isn’t really that impressive. Lindsey is relatively untested, but I like his aggression and confidence. If he can push a decent pace I expect to see Tuck slowing down in rounds 2 and 3 and that will make it tough for him to pull this out. This will be an entertaining bout with some decent exchanges and flat out I like the underdog. There aren’t a tonne of upset picks on this card at least from my perspective (unfortunately I have been really wrong about this recently), so I will be taking a shot with a single bet here.

Scott Jorgensen $1.49 vs Danny Martinez $3.07

This was a fight that I put some consideration into as an underdog pick. Scotty has not looked good. He hasn’t looked good in quite a long time. But, he hasn’t looked good against top level comp. Of his last 6 losses, he has been faced 2 former UFC champions (Cruz & Barao), 3 former WEC champions (Cruz, Faber, & Wineland), a former Bellator champion (Makovsky), and the former #1 ranked Flyweight on the planet (Formiga). That is a tough run by anyone’s standards. He clearly isn’t meant for the upper echelon of the sport, but he has some quality wins as well and has beaten lower level comp consistently. Martinez is pretty rough around the edges. On a similar wavelength, Martinez has lost each and every fight he has taken against next level competition. The 2 common themes in his fights are winging overhand punches (usually from the left side) and TDAs. I think Scotty will be able to anticipate and avoid most of this. I could see Martinez catching him on the button with a big shot and stunning him, but Wineland had to really crack him to put him down and I wager the former WEC champ hits harder then Martinez. I’m not going to go overboard with Scotty until I see him start stringing some wins together, but I still think at nearly $1.50 he is worth an inclusion on a parlay.

Bobby Voelker $1.80 vs Lance Benoist $2.25

I definitely went off the board with a few of my reasons for backing Benoist. The first being the layoff and his age. He is young and still developing. While this much time away from the cage can be a concern, it can also lead to significant strides in ability. Similar to my theory on TUF fighters making their first post TUF appearance. Secondly, the death of family member is going to be earth shattering. The tragic death of a twin brother would be unimaginable. Attempting to fight only months later would be incredibility difficult. I can’t imagine that his focus during training was even close to where it needed to be and who could blame him. As a result, with 2 years having past I expect to see a much more focus and refined fighter. He hasn’t forgotten, but time does help. For Voelker, he is entertaining, but he takes damage at a level I am not comfortable with. I picked him in his last fight and he made his opponent look like an elite level striker. Everything that Macario threw landed and I don’t think he did anything that special. Benoist kicking game should be a major factor and as long as he doesn’t get dragged into a wild exchange I see him picking away at a double tough, but equally as hittable Voelker. I will throw Benoist in as one of my single bets, potentially one of my biggest.

Sergio Pettis $1.21 vs Yaotzin Meza $5.31

I will not be playing Pettis straight up, but I do believe that this fight was put together for him to both win and look good. He is a fighter that the UFC would love to bring along, build his record up over the next year or 2 and then eventually move him towards a title shot. The circumstance surrounding Meza being in the company is far from impressive. He got in by fighting Mendes and got startched. He submitted John Albert- enough said and then lost to Chico Camus. I will consider a prop bet here, but neither man seems that appealing to me for a straight up bet.

Bryan Caraway $1.95 vs Erik Perez $1.99

I went back and forth on this fight and either fighter winning won’t shock me. Both have skills, Perez has looked really good against suspect opponents, but he showed his skill in his loss to Mizugaki. Caraway has faced better comp and faired well against them- wins over Gagnon and Bedford, along with a competitive bout versus Miz are all indications of his skill. In the end, he has to get this fight to the floor which is a real possibility and as mentioned in the predictions- his back mount is brutal. For Perez, I like his work rate. He is aggressive and hits hard and I see him outworking Caraway on the feet. This fight will go back and forth much like the odds will. I intend to play this as part of a parlay bet, most likely looking to boost the end payout with 1 or 2 accompanying bets.

Piotr Hallmann $1.58 vs Yves Edwards $2.59

The MMA world is still out on Hallmann. He got hurt early vs Trinaldo and then beat him after he gassed. He was relatively competitive versus Iaquinta but lost nonetheless. What we do know is he is tough and is works at a fairly high pace. For Edwards, the game has past him by. He can remain competitive and he still has his moments, but they are further and fewer between. I took him to beat Stephens so it’s not like I am just blindly picking against him. His body is also not where it us to be at 37 years old. He is slower and that will cost him. He also slows down quicker and his chin is a major issue. For all of those reasons I am on Hallmann. He has the power to put him down and the concentrated aggression to outwork him and push his gas tank. I like Hallmann as a part of parlay, potentially teaming him up with Perez. He will most likely find his way onto a couple of different plays.

Jason High $3.57 vs Rafael Dos Anjos $1.34

High has a huge opportunity ahead of himself here. With a win over RDA he can quickly climb the ladder of relevance in his new division. Whether he will or not, I am leading towards the not. I just don’t see him functioning well after cutting down 15 pounds. WW to LW is a big jump and factor in Jason’s muscle mass and he is doing it while fighting at altitude and I just don’t like his chances. RDA is a pretty well rounded fighter, not perfect as Nurmy showed us, but still solid. He is more then good enough to take High’s grappling out of the equation early, exploit the striking exchanges in his favour, and take complete control late. At $1.34 he isn’t that appealing, but I will mix RDA in to a parlay, most likely as the 3rd wheel.

John Dodson $1.21 vs John Moraga $5.15

Wow how the mighty have fallen. After fighting for the title Moraga is now a massive underdog in this fight and I totally understand why. I don’t see him taking it unless there is a crazy breakdown on Dodson’s part. Dodson is faster, more active with his striking and hits harder. As of right now little John is the only man I see possibly offing DJ if he continues to improve. Either way, Dodson doesn’t pay well enough to back and Moraga doesn’t offer enough even at this price. There is a prop I am looking at, but I’m still undecided.

Diego Sanchez $2.64 vs Ross Pearson $1.56

I did put some thought into playing The Nightmare. I felt that if he can drag Pearson into a slugfest he could wear him down and simply outwork him. Unfortunately, I have lost complete faith in Diego’s ability to get the job done. Even when he dragged Gil into his style of fight he lost. I like Pearson’s lateral movement and higher work rate. To me, Sanchez looks lost when he has to face an opponent that isn’t moving in a straight line. Pearson’s defensive grappling, coupled with Sanchez’s lack of solid offensive wrestling should minimize the amount. I am hoping that Pearson’s value increases as people start to back Diego based on name recognition. I plan to use Pearson as part of my parlays, fairly regularly, but again nothing crazy as I do see a path to a Diego victory.

Benson Henderson $1.43 vs Rustam Khabilov $3.16

WOW was that a close one versus Thomson. So close you might even think that he lost, I did. When he won it paid out massively for me. In this bout I like him to win it fairly handily across the board, but honestly who knows. Ben is fighting to climb a mountain he has already climbed. He is basically back to the table for seconds. Rustam hasn’t eaten yet, he is still hungry. You know what I’m sayin. Ben at $1.43 is alright, its not great. He could earn a finish if Rustam gasses, but if not Ben should take a decision and that is where my play will lie. Ben normally doesn’t finish and anything near $2.00 is worth a look.


Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1. Sergio Pettis $1.21

2. John Dodson $1.21

3. Rafael Dos Anjos $1.34

4. Benson Henderson $1.43

5. Piotr Hallmann $1.58

====================

6. Ross Pearson $1.56

7. Scott Jorgensen $1.49

8. Patrick Cummins $1.33

9. Lance Benoist $2.25

10. Erik Perez $1.99

11. Jake Lindsey $2.43


 

Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. Ben Henderson to Win by Decision $2.15 I am not sure the Russian is ready for this level of competition just yet. Bendo outpoints him until the final bell.
2. Lance Benoist $2.25 I think we see a new and improved fighter here in Benoist against the same old approach from Voelker.
3. Jake Lindsey $2.43 EPU scenario.
4. Erik Perez $1.99 Toughs it out early and takes a very close decision, probably a split.
5. Pettis/ Meza Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.30 Decent value and I like that Pettis has over 2 rounds to put this one on ice.

The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

  • Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
  • I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.

Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. Roger Narvaez $4.00 Until I see what Cummins can actually do beyond his regional success he shouldn’t be this big of a fav. EPU in play.
2.
3.
4.
5.

The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.

Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.

Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.

The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.

There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.


Prop Bets-

Jake Lindsey/ Jon Tuck Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.88- This fight could end early as both men have finishing capabilities, but that in turns gives up a little more value here. Debuting fighters with a lot of finishes will often go the distance when moving to the next level of competition. Play the Over.

Sergio Pettis/ Yaotzin Meza Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.30- Pettis has finishing capabilities both on the feet and the floor. Meza has been finished several times, both on the feet and on the floor. This fight is being put together to help Pettis Lite’s continued growth. Play the Under.

Bryan Caraway/ Erik Perez Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.56- This sets up as one of those fights that could and should go under taking into account that both men have the ability to end it early. Taking all that into consideration, I still think we are going to see the judges scorecards. Perez has finished lesser opponents and while Caraway has a couple of pretty could submissions on record, I don’t see him finishing Perez if the fight plays out like I anticipate it will.

Piotr Hallmann/ Yves Edwards Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.66- Yes Yves has been KO unofficially 5 times in his career. But, the more and more I look at this fight I see it playing out like IVF vs Edwards. Hallmann will be pushing the pace and Edwards laying back looking to counter. Edwards slows, Hallmann continues to come forward and gets the better of it, but with no finish.

John Dodson/ John Moraga Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.85- I know, I played Dodson by knockout. This is similar to the Edwards change of heart. This fight looks like the type of fight where everyone is waiting for the KO to land and it never does. Moraga should be good enough to hang around with Dodson, not win, but not get smashed into oblivion.

Ben Henderson to Win by Decision $2.15- Here we go again, on Henderson by decision. I don’t see him finishing Khabby unless he gasses hard, but he should outpoint him and take it home on the cards. Decent value here considering Ben doesn’t have a great track record for finishes.