UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov- Post Fight Bet Pack

UFC 174 Bet Pack

Big Money Bettor, Budget: $500

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1:
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Price: $2.43 x Bet: $75
Payout: $182.25
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: M
Selection 2: Ovince St. Preux $1.69
Selection 3: D
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Price: $3.84 x Bet: $100
Payout: $384
 
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Parlay #3
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Selection 1:
Selection 2:
Selection 3: Kajan Johnson $1.63
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Price: $5.54 x Bet: $100
Payout: $554
 
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Parlay #4
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Selection 1: Jason Saggo $1.91
Selection 2: Elizabeth Phillips $1.95
Selection 3:
Selection 4: D
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Price: $6.98 x Bet: $75
Payout: $523.50
 
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Parlay #5
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Selection 1: M
Selection 2: D
Selection 3: D
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Price: $7.71 x Bet: $50
Payout: $385.50
 
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Parlay #6
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Selection 1: Kajan Johnson $1.63
Selection 2: Ovince St. Preux $1.69
Selection 3:
Selection 4: M
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Price: $8.52 x Bet: $100
Payout: $852

Recreational Bettor, Budget: $200

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: M
Selection 2: Ovince St. Preux $1.69
Selection 3: Kajan Johnson $1.63
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Price: $5.04 x Bet: $50
Payout: $252
 
Parlay #2
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Selection 1:
Selection 2:
Selection 3:
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Price: $7.38 x Bet: $50
Payout: $369
 
Parlay #3
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Selection 1: D
Selection 2:
Selection 3: D
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Price: $4.82 x Bet: $100
Payout: $482

For Fun Bettor, Budget: $50

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: D
Selection 2: M
Selection 3: Ovince St. Preux $1.69
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Price: $7.12 x Bet: $25
Payout: $178
 

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Parlay #2
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Selection 1:
Selection 2:
Selection 3: Kajan Johnson $1.63
Selection 4:
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Price: $13.46 x Bet: $25
Payout: $336.50
 
 

Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns

With 9 of the 11 fights on this card featuring favourites sitting above the $1.50 mark I intend to trend my betting towards playing 2 and 3 fight parlays instead of single bets. For Tanaka I really like his grappling and as long as he deals with the bright lights of his debut I think he simply outworks Delorme here. Roland is a good grappler in his own right, but will find it difficult to gain much on the mat here. If it stays standing its a much closer fight, but look for Delmorme to simply get worn out on the mat. He has had some cardio issues in past fights when they are spent mostly on the floor they should be magnified in bout where he is on the defensive. I really like Tanaka and intend to use him strongly.

Jason Saggo $1.91 vs Josh Shockley $2.05

I went back and forth on this fight and I am still not sure. I was originally on Shockley as I was impressed with his submission skills, but the more and more I looked at Saggo I felt he was the better fighter. Then after all of that I needed to take into account that the majority of the footage from both when was older and they haven’t fought in over a year. I still like Saggo though, he had more to build on and is fighting at home which is nice. I could see the grappling being a washing and if that is the case I like Saggo to use his kicks at distance and his clinch in close. I won’t go overboard with this pick and will most likely use him once no more then twice in a parlay.

I’m simply not sold on Bang and short of him landing one on Kajan’s chin with a bang, he is not winning this fight. Bang does not do enough. He plods forward, he waits, he tries to counter all while his opponent is landing more and superior shots. Kajan has to keep busy, mix in some takedowns when appropriate and use his movement to counter the counters of THB. Please do not move in straight lines, it gives THB a better chance of landing. I plan on using KJ in a couple of parlays. He is local, not just Canadian, he is from BC and we all know the UFC loves to get the crowd fired up by setting up a local favourite to win. I think that is what is happening here. I’m leaning towards including him on my 3 fight parlays, but he could get pair up with what of the more valuable favourites.

I am not a fan of Mike Easton. Yet I picked him here because Yves routinely finds ways to give fights away. He was doing very well against both Wineland and Pickett and then bang fight over. He was landing decent shots, not taking too much damage and could have even been ahead on the cards at least early on. Yves is the better striker, but I expect to see him backpedalling most of the fight which will give the judges the impression that Easton is winning. Additionally, I expect to see Easton looking to be more diverse with his grappling, like we saw against Pickett. He’s not my fav fighter and many are down on him, but look at the guys he has lost to. Assuncao, Pickett, and the new champ TJ. Pretty tough run for anyone. I will throw Easton in a 3 fight parlay, but I will most likely use him sparingly unless his value gets over the $1.60 range. Yves has the tools to win this fight, but my forecast is he come up short again.

Elizabeth Phillips $1.95 vs Valerie Letourneau $1.98

Talk about being late to the dance. This fight originally feature 2 different fighters and then materialized into this pairing. As a result I didn’t get a tonne of time to break this fight down, but sometimes simple can better. K.I.S.S- Keep It Simple Scott. Phillips looked like the more appealing fighter and with the odds almost even I roll with her. Most likely this play gets used just once, but nothing that will b devastating if it doesn’t pan out.

D

I am pretty confident that Sarafian walks away with the win here. He isn’t my #1 confidence pick, but he could be #2. He is simply better in all facets of the game and unless he gasses because of the weight cut, he takes this. Unfortunately he pays squat, but I still might throw him on the end of a few bets just to add the few extra dollars as I feel the risk is minimal.

Jimmo has picked up a couple of solid wins, but has yet to really beat anyone of significance. What I mean regarding ‘solid wins’ is that he has beat the guys he was suppose to and by the method he was suppose to, but when he steps up he gets shutdown. OSP has been advancing nicely. In Strikeforce he was raw and the Mousasi fight showed us that. He appears to be refining his game as his skills catch up to his physical capabilities. Jimmo hasn’t done that well against opponents that are physical and OSP can and will be just that. The price has dropped a little on OSP, but he is still a solid bet. He is quicker then Jimmo and as long as he doesn’t gas he is good here. I intend to tie him into a couple of different parlays here 2’s and 3’s.

This is my biggest paying pick of the card. It could really go either way as both guys have the ability to land and finish this fight. Also, both guys have the ability to get hit with a shot and crumple to the floor. Would I be shocked to see it go to the floor, no, not really. Schaub has incorporated the ground game in each of his last 2 fights and could look to do it again. At times, Andrei has looked far from a killer against lesser competition, but I can’t get the image of Hybrid going down against Nog out of my head. The shots that have stopped Arlovski would have put almost anyone down and yes the knockouts are piling up, but I still think he has the ability to win this fight. The odds opened much closer and now we have some serious value movement in the favour of Arlovski. This will most likely be my only single bet of the night. I will also take a look at the over/under to see what value lies there.

Cavalcante could really be a darkhorse in the division if he can get through Bader. He got off to a slow start in the UFC, but appeared to right the ship. This a step up. I am a little underwhelmed that the price changed so drastically here. It was a near pick’em before and now we have Bader below $1.70. I still think he is worth it, but it was so much nicer to see him in the $1.90 range. Bader needs to be careful in round one. He needs to use his wrestling as well, push the pace, but don’t get reckless and that should create the opportunity for him to take control as the fight progresses. Bader’s chin is a liability, but Raf is no Roy Nelson if you get what I am saying. Bader plays out as a decent parlay member here and gives us decent pop. Play accordingly.

I like many people are not sold on Rory. I wasn’t that impressed with his last performance to say the least. Had Maia not gassed he probably wins the fight. At the same time I haven’t been blown away by Woodley either. He took out a couple of older guys and then a injured Condit, with a pretty poor showing against Jake Shields mixed in between. This is a big step up for T-Wood. If can’t end this fight quickly I see him slowing, become predictable, and getting jabbed to death by MacDonald. Rory might lose the opening round via takedowns, but then take control as Woodley gasses. Woodley looks good when he puts guys away quickly, but if Rory was able to hang with Robbie Lawler and arguably win that fight, I think he can do the same here and come out on top. I like the little value bump we are getting with the Canadian. He is a solid play and intend to mix him into my parlays. Nough said.

D

You probably know my stand on this fight already. Johnson win, not value there. I am looking at the prop opportunities and will post them shortly.


Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1. D

2. D

3. M

4. Ovince St. Preux $1.69

5. Kajan Johnson $1.63

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6.

7.

8.

9.

10. Jason Saggo $1.91

11. Elizabeth Phillips $1.95


 

Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. $2.43 AA gets the nod because of his price. It has increased nicely in our favour and I still question whether Schaub can handle what Andrei can throw his way.
2. $2.01 This is a must win for Rory Mac. It is his first real opportunity since GSP left to potentially earn a shot at the title. He rises to the occasion. Get on him before he dips back down.
3. M $1.83 He simply does what Delorme does, only better. He needs to avoid the debut jitters, but he rolls here.
4. $1.69 He has lost a little value which is a let down. He is still a solid contributor to your parlay bets.
5. $1.63 Kajan slides back a little here because he is debuting, but facing an opponent that has a very beatable fighting style.

The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

  • Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
  • I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.

Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. $2.80 If Yves had been a little more consistent over his last 3 fights I would most likely be riding with him here. He can win this fight and he is totally justifiable as a play here.
2. $2.35 Bader has playable value, but Raf is getting more and more intriguing the higher the price goes. If he shows up in top condition he could walk with this one.
3.
4.
5.

The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.

Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.

Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.

The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.

There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.


Prop Bets-

D

D

Demetrious Johnson to Win by Submission $3.95- Ali was in a tough position with his opponent on his back in his debut. If that happens here this fight will come to a close. Johnson’s wrestling will put him in positions for a submission, especially later in the fight. I am not sold on Ali’s grappling.