UFC Fight Night 40: Brown vs Silva- Post Fight Breakdown & the Bet Pack
The UFC’s Fight Night 40 was to say the least entertaining, albeit an unsuccessful night of prediction or myself. But as a fan of MMA it was still a good night. Here’s the run down.
Of the 13 fights on the card, 8 were won by underdogs. That is the second most in UFC history, only bested by the very recent UFC Fight Night 38 card which had 9. A predictors nightmare, simply because the chance of successfully predicting that many upsets is pretty limited.
There were 7 knockouts, including 2 to start the card an 3 to end it.
6 fights ended inside the first round.
Johnny Eduardo’s upset knockout of Eddie Wineland ranks in as one of the biggest upsets in MMA betting history- at least by the numbers. At one book Eduardo paid $8.35 on your dollar which is pretty huge. To put things in perspective Matt Serra topped out at the $8.00 mark when he upset Georges St-Pierre in their first encounter.
Let’s take a look at some of the most important outcomes on what was a pretty solid card.
Nik Lentz is a grinder, but he is one of the most entertaining. He showed improved striking and simply outworked his opponent. If he keeps doing this his stock will surely rise.
That is going to be one costly round for the career of Eddie Wineland. After losing his title shot handily, he was in maintenance mode as far as his standing in the division was concerned. Losing to an unranked fighter in that fashion is a massive blow. He needs to retool and become more diverse.
The UFC could have a new Japanese star on their hands. In a division begging for new title challenger, Kyoiji Horiguchi still needs a win or 2 but he could find himself contending for the strap in the not too distant future. That could work as a headliner in his home country.
It is nice to see a long time vet like Chris Cariaso still making waves in the division. He has won 3 in a row and will most likely get a push up the ladder in competition next time out. Cariaso against the winner of Pickett/ McCall would be interesting and could produce a future title challenger.
Soa Palelei might not contender for a title, but he is sure fun to watch fight. Dude can sing too.
In a battle of flawed fighters Daron Cruickshank got the jobbed done. I called for the upset in Erik Koch’s return to the 155, but felt that he could get the job done against I guy that struggled with aggressive striker. In my bet pack I said the straight up bet to make was on Cruickshank.
I’m a big fan of Costa Philippou and he put the stamp on Lorenz Larkin last night. While he most likely can’t hang with the big guns in the division he will provide an excellent proving ground for those wanting to take that next step.
Matt Brown is a monster, but I was so close to calling the finishing sequence on the button. I predicted Silva hurting him to the body and then sinking in a submission after Brown went down. Horseshoes and hand grenades. Brown clearly has a weakness, and both Silva and Jordan Mein were able to exploit it. Will a higher ranked opponent be make it his undoing? Possibly.
One thing I know for sure is that Erik Silva’s corner men should be fired. Instead of giving him strategic advice, they elected instead to say stuff like “Where’s the real Erik Silva” and other statements akin to that. While he was under constant attack, it was clear that he could hurt Brown. His corner should have told him to looked for more body kicks at range and then go upstairs when/if Brown starts to lower his hands. Possibly use a push kick when he starts to come forward. When in close Fabio Maldonado style body shots would have back Brown off as soon as he locked up the clinch. Live and learn.
The current pairing that is betting batted around is Brown versus Hector Lombard which is an excellent fight. The winner could very well be inline for a shot at the title. Brown’s grappling D will certainly need to be on point for that one, but we will also get a grade A look at Lombard’s cardio and how it holds up when pushed.
I will post the Bet Pack below and while the parlays didn’t produce there was still a tonne of decent information;
-No Plays on Koch, Cabral, and Wineland.
-Caution on playing Means & Larkin.
-Non-predicted Winners picks on Cruickshank and Brown
-5 winning prop bets
Traditionally my underdog picks range from 2-4 per card at the high end. Even that would have probably left me scratching my head on a night like this. That is the best part of the UFC though, a bad night can quickly be forgotten because a new card is fight around the corner. Thanks for reading.
UFC Fight Night 40
Big Money Bettor, Budget: $500=================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: =================================================== Price: $1.71 x Bet: $125 Payout: $213.75 =================================================== Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: Anthony Lapsley $3.03 =================================================== Price: $3.03 x Bet: $50 Payout: $151.50 =================================================== Parlay #3 =================================================== Selection 1: Erik Silva to Win by Submission $2.50 =================================================== Price: $2.50 x Bet: $75 Payout: $187.50 =================================================== Parlay #4 =================================================== Selection 1: Selection 2: Selection 3: Lorenz Larkin to Win by Decision $2.06 =================================================== Price: $4.94 x Bet: $100 Payout: $494 =================================================== Parlay #5 =================================================== Selection 1: Selection 2:Kyoji Horiguchi $1.60 Selection 3: Selection 4: Soa Palelei/ =================================================== Price: $6.02 x Bet: $75 Payout: $451.50 =================================================== Parlay #6 =================================================== Selection 1: Matt Brown/ Selection 2: Anthony Lapsley/ Selection 3: =================================================== Price: $8.16 x Bet: $75 Payout: $612
Recreational Bettor, Budget: $200================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: Anthony Lapsley $3.03 Selection 2: Erik Silva to Win by Submission $2.50 =================================================== Price: $7.58 x Bet: $30 Payout: $227.40 Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: Selection 2: Selection 3: Lorenz Larkin to Win by Decision $2.06 =================================================== Price: $6.35 x Bet: $70 Payout: $444.50 Parlay #3 =================================================== Selection 1: Kyoji Horiguchi $1.60 Selection 2: Matt Brown/ Selection 3: Soa Palelei/ =================================================== Price: $5.53 x Bet: $50 Payout: $276.50 Parlay #4 =================================================== Selection 1: Selection 2: Anthony Lapsley/ Selection 3: Selection 4: =================================================== Price: $6.85 x Bet: $50 Payout: $342.50
For Fun Bettor, Budget: $50=================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: Selection 2: Selection 3: Kyoji Horiguchi $1.60 Selection 4: Lorenz Larkin to Win by Decision $2.06 =================================================== Price: $10.15 x Bet: $25 Payout: $253.75
==================================================Parlay #2 ================================================== Selection 1: Erik Silva to Win by Submission $2.50 Selection 2: Soa Palelei $1.42 Selection 3: Neil Magny/ Selection 4: Anthony Lapsley/ =================================================== Price: $14.13 x Bet: $25 Payout: $353.25
Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns
Anthony Lapsley $3.03 vs
Opening fight of the night and another stab at the EPU. I’m not sold on Tumenov. He scored a knockout down/ partial slip in his debut and capitalized by hammering some significant GNP onto Alcantara’s dome. After that he got taken down with relative ease and gassed hard. This fight could end early with a knockout, obviously by the Russian, but Lapsley has never been KOed and is a solid vet. I think he weathers the storm and turns the fight in his favour with his wrestling/ top game. These odds are a product of the hype surrounding Tumenov coming out of Russia. The train gets derailed here. I will be hitting a single bet on Lapsley here, but I’ll be patient before pulling the trigger as the line seems to be moving upward.
Justin Salas $1.39 vs
I’m not that hyped about betting on this fight. Salas is the better fighter, but he has been so up and down that it is hard to consider him a worthy bet as this big of a fav. I know his losses have come against better comp- Means & Tavares, but I want to see more from him. Wall is a bit of a wildcard considering he has fought just once and it was at WW. Before that he was a decision machine against lower level comp which isn’t that encouraging either. Salas should win this fight and I will most likely key him in as a part of a parlay, but nothing too extensive.
Manny Gamburyan $4.30 vs
I don’t like Manny Gamburyan. There is just something about him that rubs me the wrong way. I don’t think that influences my ability to pick his fights, as I took him over Cole Miller a few fights back. In this instance, I just think Lentz does everything that Manny can do only better and then more on top of that. Manny relies heavily on scoring takedowns and unless you are Chad Mendes, there aren’t many Featherweights that will be taking Lentz down with regularity. He has a bit better value now then he did a few days ago which leads me to consider him as a parlay option, but again limit value = limited inclusion.
Yan Cabral $1.29 vs
This fight really doesn’t do much for me. Cummings is decent and could cause some problems for Cabral, but at this price I feel that it is just better to “Let it go, let it go, Can’t hold it back anymore, Let it go, let it go, Turn away and slam the door”. So don’t bet on this one if you didn’t get that, from…whatever that was.
Eddie Wineland $1.23 vs
Nope, nothing here. I might consider a prop bet but I have no interest in playing this fight. Wineland carries his hands too low and maybe one day, I’m not saying it will be this one, it will cost him a fight that he was expected to win.
Kyoji Horiguchi $1.60 vs
The first non-dog play that has some value. I certainly put some thought into playing Montague, but his knockout losses to Dodson and Peralta coupled with Kyoji’s crushing power is what this fight came down to. I have some trepidation considering that Horiguchi is making his first cut to 125, but he was a small 135er to start with and fought at 132 pounds prior to entering the UFC. If Montague can score with his wrestling that is his ticket to victory, but I don’t see him doing it enough to win this bout. I’ll play Horiguchi in parlay, most likely 2-3 fighters.
Ed Herman $2.31 vs
I really like the odds here. Unless Ed can drag Natal into a brawl and catch him on the button, Natal is better then him in all facets of the game. I just do not see Herman out-landing Natal on the feet nor do I see him getting the better of the grappling battles. Plain and simple, at this stage of their careers Natal is the better fighter. Herman has been around for a long time and it shows. Play Raf, I think a single bet may be a legit option and using him in your parlays also work.
Chris Cariaso $2.22 vs
I was hoping that Cariaso’s veteran status would carry him as the fav here, but the odds makers are looking at this the same way I am. It will be close, but Smolka looks like he has a little more to offer. I like Cariaso, but I just don’t see him doing enough here. If Smolka was able to find success against Alp on the mat, he will against Cariaso as well. Chris gets taken down pretty much every fight and if Smolka gets it there he should be able to replicate some of his past difficulties against strong grapplers. On the feet, Cariaso relies to heavily on his kicking game and I wouldn’t be shocked to see the taller fighter close the distance, use his clinch, and nullify that arsenal. Smolka as a single bet is an option, although I am not quite as fond of him as I am Natal. Moreover using him in a parlay makes more sense to me. Bet accordingly.
Soa Palelei $1.42 vs
With a handful of less then enticing favourites on this card, Soa is going to be one of the lower paying favourites I intend to lean on. Simply put he is better then Potts. For Potts to win he has to catch Soa the right moment and stop him. I just don’t see him having the skills to beat Soa long term. The ground game should decide it and while Potts has used it to his advantage in the past, it won’t be beneficial here. Palelei is too big, too strong, too experienced. I intend to hammer Palelei on a parlay or 3- he adds some pop and the risk is minimal.
Neil Magny $3.31 vs
My biggest concern here is Means moving to 170 against higher level comp. Winning on regional circuit above your weightclass is…well…Cody McKenzie won a few weeks ago at Middleweight. Nuff said. Magny is a capable fighter and I think that the odds are a little misleading regarding the talent gap here. I will most likely include Means on a single parlay for diversification purposes, but his defensive wrestling bothers me enough to be cautious.
Erik Koch $1.29 vs D
I did not realize that a single win at LW over Rafaello Oliveira makes you this type of a favourite this time around. Yes Koch won the fight, but seriously lets not get to far ahead of ourselves. Cruickshank has a pulse and is far from a pushover. Sure he has many faults but so does Koch. As a result this fight will be a no go for me. In fact, I may even consider tossing a buck or 2 down on the Detroit Superstar.
Costa Philippou $3.11 vs
I thought about playing Costa. He has the type of power to make Larkin hesitate. On the flip side of the coin, double L is more diverse and if he does come out and throw he should be able to both outwork and out-technique Costa. The body durability of Costa could also be a major concern as we saw against Rockhold, a well placed kick could end this fight pretty quickly. Larkin should be motivated after a poor last performance and while he is far from a sure bet. I will use him in my parlays for this fight, nothing too extensive as I don’t want a second consecutive poor showing torching my night.
Matt Brown $3.01 vs
This line has created a lot of controversy. Many people feel that Brown’s recent success should warrant him being the favourite here and there is a lot of legitimacy to that point of view. Brown has been on a tear and picked up some pretty solid wins during his rise up ranks. Conversely, Silva has been up and down- alternating wins and losses. He is currently coming off a lose so based on the current pattern he should be headed for another defeat. Brown is coming off a long layoff which is a bit of a concern and his horrendous submission loss total can’t help but smack you in the face when looked at Silva’s submission skills. If Brown can turn this into a dog fight and based on the media Silva will obliged he could certainly wear him down and pound him out. Cardio is a major concern for Silva and Brown feasts on guys that can’t hang with his aggression. I went back and forth on this one and ultimately rested on Brown getting dropped by a body shot and Silva sinking some type of choke in. Brown certainly has the ability to win this fight and might be worth a small play. My look would be to consider Brown for a small single play and then use Silva in your parlays.
Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)
1. Soa Palelei $1.42
2. Eddie Wineland $1.23
5. Yan Cabral $1.29
7. Justin Salas $1.39
9. Kyoji Horiguchi $1.60
10. Erik Koch $1.29
13. Anthony Lapsley $3.03
Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)
|1.||$1.71||His price tag isn’t that flashy compared to some of those that took the top spot from past events, but there is some solid value here against a fighter that has seen better days and recently lost to similar opponents.|
|2.||Anthony Lapsley||$3.03||I want to see Tumenov pick up a win in the UFC before he starts pulling this type of value here. I know Lapsley hasn’t got that first ‘W’ yet either, but he is a well travelled vet and has the tools to exploit Tumenov’s weaknesses.|
|3.||$1.80||Smolka’s value is slowly creeping up so you might want to sit on this one, but he has the tools to upend a solid veteran like Cariaso.|
|4.||Lorenz Larkin to Win by Decision||$2.06||Larkin will be looking to rebound from a tough loss, so will Costa- its ends with the more diverse striker taking a decision.|
|5.||Erik Silva to Win by Submission||$2.50||If Brown drags it deep he wins this one, but I see him getting hurt early with Silva’s quick starting ability taking advantage of the long layoff and leading to a sub.|
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
- Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
- I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.
Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)
|1.||D||$4.45||I am far from a Cruickshank fan, but I feel this fight is far closer then these odds would indicate.|
|2.||Matt Brown||$3.01||I like Brown, he is a fighter’s fighter and while I have Silva winning Brown is an extremely live dog. I would think a decent approach would be a single bet on Brown as a backup and Silva in your parlays.|
The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.
Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.
Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.
The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.
There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.
Erik Koch/ D
Lorenz Larkin to Win by Decision $2.06– Larkin hasn’t exactly been finishing guys, even when he was able to be pile up the damage (Camozzi). He sticks on the outside with his kicks, avoids the power, and takes the decision.
Erik Silva to Win by Submission $2.50- Brown’s struggles with submission defense are well documented and while they have gone away for the time being, the right opponent can bring them back out. Silva is that opponent.