UFC Fight Night 36 Machida vs Mousasi: The Good, the Bad, & the Ugly + the Bet Pack

 Scott Johnson

 

UFC Fight Night 36 played host to a pair of key Middleweight bouts, potentially determining the next challengers to enter the fray after Chris Weidman and the resurgent Vitro Belfort fight later this year. Also on the main card a near victory was turned into agonizing defeat, Erik Silva returned to form, and Charles Oliveira claimed another victim. Kamikaze Overdrive went 9-3-0 with a massively successful bet back that even included cashing in on one the 3 losses from the night. Let’s take a look at the nights good, bad and of course the ugly!

The Good

My night of predictions certainly falls into this category. After dropping the opening 2 fights of the night (another contributor to my early prelim theory) I rolled off 8 straight wins including upsets in the form of Felipe Arantes, Rodrigo Damm, and Nico Muskoke. Overall I went 9-3-0 on the night.

Ildemar Alcantara’s ability to switch gears and use his grappling to take home the win was a great in fight adjustment that many fighters simply can’t bring themselves to do.

Yuri Alcantara endured a solid back and forth bout, winning the fight simply because he did more damage during his points of dominance then Wilson Reis did with his.

It didn’t come as easy as many expected by Charles Oliveira eventually submitted Andy Ogle. Ogle put up a respectable fight and forced the Brazilian to work hard, which is a testament to Oliveira’s developing mental toughness.

The odds indicated that Erick Silva was going to smash Takenori Sato and he didn’t disappoint continuing his trend of quick fights with just 52 seconds of official cage time before ending the fight with brutality.

Lyoto Machida put together another impressive performance, visibly frustrating a talented striker in Gegard Mousasi. While a finish would have been massive, a dominant game plan that earned him a couple of 50-45 is more than enough to convince me that he is going to be challenging for a Middleweight title shortly.

The Bad

Douglas Silva de Andrade looked stiff from the opening bell and didn’t do much to convince anyone that his massive 22-0-1 record was something to be taken seriously. He most likely won’t be back after that performance.

While he might have got the win, Francisco Trinaldo certainly did it the hard way. Jesse Ronson had major issues with the grappling attack of his first UFC opponent, but Trinaldo opted to use a striking based approach and kept the fight much closer then it needed to be.

Ivan Jorge’s fight game is pretty simplistic and not that enjoyable to watch. Rodrigo Damm pulled the ‘upset’ off with a decision win, landing the better shots, but he was clearly exhausted in the final round and could have been finished by a more competent and better conditioned adversary.

Francis Carmont knew he had to take advantage of his time spent on the feet and maybe it was out of concern for getting taken down, but he seemed to do more posturing then engaging. He landed a few good shots here and there, but not enough to warrant him raising his hands at the end of the fight.

The Ugly

Maximo Blanco’s low blow was one of the loudest I have ever heard and made me cringe.

While it helped to seal the deal in the favour of my fighter, Mario Yamisaki’s point deduction was a little odd. Additionally, he had a very fast stand-up in the Reis/ Alcantara fight when Reis was in side-control and appeared to be working.  Brazil seems to bring out the worst in ‘not so super’ Mario.

Cristiano Marcello.

I shouldn’t have to elaborate on my last post, but I will. Marcello actually attempted to win the fight with his grappling game, but that only lasted until he gassed and started getting tagged. He eventually was a non-factor and will hopefully no longer be gracing the interior of the UFC’s Octagon.

Talk about jumping the gun. Viscarde Andrade kicked it into celebration mode after what appeared to be a knockout of Nico Muskoke. Viscarde sent his Swedish counterpart tumbling to the mat and launched into celebration, only to allow Musoke time to revive himself. After attempting to finish, the Brazilian slowed and lost the next 2 rounds getting out worked both on the feet and surprisingly on the mat. At least when Rousimar Palhares prematurely celebrated vs Dan Miller, he still won the fight.

Jacare Souza’s excuse. It seems to be a growing trend that fighters feel the need to explain away an underachieving performance. Jacare clearly won the fight, but failed to sub his opponent and then explained he had an arm injury post fight that compromised his performance. It may be the case, but it’s hard to believe that any fighter enters the cage at 100% and why attempt to take away from your opponent’s performance by saying you were fighting one-armed.

The Awesome

I know that this category isn’t part of the traditional format, but there are two things that fit into this category. One is incredibly awesome for the fans and one is self-admittedly pretty self serving.

The Middleweight division’s contender list is a long and talented one. Weidman vs Belfort will be fun and Jacare should face the winner. I would like to see Machida fight once more simply to stay busy and facing the winner of Kennedy/Bisping would give him a decent opponent without removing another top contender from the mix. Luke Rockhold has returned to form, but probably needs 2-3 more wins to get a shot at the title. Mark Munoz, Francis Carmont, Tim Boetsch, Alan Belcher, and Costa Philippou comprise an excellent middle of the division testing ground for other fighters, and Anderson Silva appears to be training again. Fun times!

The over $2100 that my bet pack produced in winnings at this event. That is a pretty solid payout, not to mention the prop bets and other bits of useful info that you can buy for just $10. Check it all out below. Thanks for reading.


UFC Fight Night 36

Parlay Breakdowns

Big Money Bettor, Budget: $550

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Lyoto Machida to Win by Decision $2.39
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Price: $2.39 x Bet: $125
Payout: $298.75
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: $2.19
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Price: $2.19 x Bet: $100
Payout: $219
 
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Parlay #3
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Selection 1:
===================================================
Price: $2.40 x Bet: $75
Payout: $180
 
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Parlay #4
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Selection 1: Felipe Arantes $2.05
Selection 2: Yuri Alcantara $1.45
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Price: $2.97 x Bet: $75
Payout: $222.94
 
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Parlay #5
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Selection 1: Francisco Trinaldo $1.57
Selection 2: J
Selection 3: Z
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Price: $4.84 x Bet: $75
Payout: $363
 
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Parlay #6
===================================================
Selection 1: Lyoto Machida to Win by Decision $2.39
Selection 2:
Selection 3: Charles Oliveira to Win by Submission $1.87
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Price: $7.15 x Bet: $50
Payout: $357.55
 
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Parlay #7
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Selection 7:
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Price: $5.44 x Bet: $50
Payout: $272

Recreational Bettor, Budget: $200

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Parlay #1
===================================================
Selection 1: Lyoto Machida to Win by Decision $2.39
Selection 2: Yuri Alcantara $1.45
Selection 3: J
===================================================
Price: $5.48 x Bet: $50
Payout: $274
 
Parlay #2
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Selection 1:
Selection 2:
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Price: $5.26 x Bet: $50
Payout: $263
 
Parlay #3
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Selection 1: Felipe Arantes $2.05
Selection 2:
Selection 3: Z
===================================================
Price: $6.40 x Bet: $50
Payout: $320
 
Parlay #4
===================================================
Selection 1: Yuri Alcantara/
Selection 2: Charles Oliveira to Win by Submission $1.87
Selection 3: Francisco Trinaldo $1.57
===================================================
Price: $6.61 x Bet: $50
Payout:$330.50
 
 

For Fun Bettor, Budget: $50

===================================================
Parlay #1
===================================================
Selection 1: Lyoto Machida to Win by Decision $2.39
Selection 2:
Selection 3: Yuri Alcantara $1.45
Selection 4: J
===================================================
Price: $11.99 x Bet: $25
Payout: $299.78
 

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Parlay #2
===================================================
Selection 1: Francisco Trinaldo $1.57
Selection 2:
Selection 3: Felipe Arantes $2.05
Selection 4: Z
Selection 5:
===================================================
Price: $24.10 x Bet: $25
Payout: $602.50
 

Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns

Douglas de Silva Andrade $1.95 vs Z

Neil Magny once again reinforced my theory as being correct- there is almost always an upset during the first 2, possibly 3 fights of the night. The line for this card is a little up and down with it either set at even or Zubs as the slightest of favourites. This fight is pretty wide open as far as variables are concerned. Tukhugov has been prepping for this fight for a while, but has had to deal with an opponent change. de Silva is fighting at home, but is taking the bout on short notice. The Russia is bigger, but by all accounts de Silva is faster. I like de Silva because he is fighting at home and his finishing rate is far more impressive. I know that’s not the be all and end all, but I am willing to roll with him with some slight. I would use him as a part of a 2 or 3 fight parlay or maybe hook him up with one of my bigger single bets so if he wins that awesome and if he comes up short then its not the end of the world.

Ildemar Alcantara $2.44 vs

The other early candidate for an upset features the oddity that is Ildemar Alcantara. He debuted with a sub win at 205, cut to 170 and took on a smaller opponent, winning the fight but in less then memorable fashion, and then dropped his next fight in a lackluster performance. I like Tumenov’s striking here to be the deciding factor. Would I bet my first child on it? No. But the rate at which Alcantara has allowed his opponents to out land him in each of his last 2 fights is a major concern against a fighter then is a more talented striker then either man Alcantara has faced. I am playing him here similar to de Silva, either as part of a 2-3 fighter parlay or as a add-on to fighter that I already bet straight up.

Felipe Arantes $2.05 vs

My initial lean here was Blanco, but he is just so inconsistent and Arantes’s last fight was simply not a good representation of what he is capable of. If Blanco comes out guns blazing early he could catch him, but my bet is that Arantes circles away, puts defensive shields on full and survives. After that he should be able to take this fight over as Blanco slows down. Additionally, if you can get this fight to end via DQ at a decent price, why not give it a shot. Blanco has been DQed twice in his career and is known for being a little absent minded as far as the rules are concerned. Usually its lumped in with a knockout win (the DQ), but if the price is right why not. In the end I think Arantes has some nice value against a fighter that is 1-3 in his last 4 fights between Strikeforce and the UFC. I am trending towards a single bet here, but will most likely wait until just before the fight to cash in on what I hope is some rising value.

Yuri Alcantara $1.45 vs

Alcantara actually has a little bit more bite to his bet then I anticipated. Reis didn’t blow me away in his debut, but he got the job done and that is what is important. If you compare Alcantara to Reis’s list of opponents, he is most similar to Patricio Freire and Eduardo Dantas from Bellator who are a combined 3-0 vs Reis with 2 knockouts. Yuri is bigger, faster, and hits harder then Reis. He will be good enough to keep this fight vertical as Reis is a strong grappler, but no where near the level of a Urijah Faber. I like Alcantara to check the chin of Reis and either with one big shot or through an accumulation, shut this fight down. I think Alcantara would be best served as part of a parlay, 2-3 fighters should fit the bill for a nice return.

Francisco Trinaldo $1.57 vs

Similar to the fight we just talked about, I like the stylistic matchup here and the fav has a playable number. Trinaldo is a big strong grappler with submission capabilities and heavy ground and pound. He is also more then capable of doing damage on the feet, but would be better served by taking Ronson down. Ronson is fresh off a fight where he struggled with his opponents ground game early, but rallied late which could be similar here. Jesse struggled because he stood too tall and that allow his opponent to routinely get in deep on his TDAs. That would be a huge mistake against a monster like Trinaldo. My major concern is if Trinaldo gasses before the end of the 2nd and can’t finish Ronson or get at least 2 rounds in the bag. It is hard to back a fighter on that one scenario playing out, so I will stick with Trinaldo. Similar to Alcantara, there is value here and a parlay with 2-3 fighters would make sense.

Ivan Jorge $1.71 vs

The line on Damm is a little shocking. He is coming up from 145, but he has faced some decent comp at this weight before in El Nino and Masvidal. His grappling should be good enough to fend of Jorge, as long as the size factor doesn’t become an issue. Damm is a better striker and should be able to find success, especially if he is the quicker fighter and he should be. I felt Jorge should have lost his debut, but it didn’t help that his opponent did next to nothing offensively in the third round. Either way Damm is the more complete fighter and will most likely feel rejuvenated fighting at 155 after making the cut to 145 over his last handful of fights. I like Damm for a larger single bet, he is almost certainly a top 3 play on this card, but I will need to double check the available props before I finalize my value list.

Cristiano Marcello $2.49 vs J

Please let this be Marcello’s final UFC appearance, calling Joe Proctor- snuff it out. Marcello isn’t UFC material, but he is aggressive, can be entertaining either in victory or defeat, and probably doesn’t cost the brass much compared to others. Proctor is far from a top level guy and injuries have derailed his career for the last little while, but he has far more upside then his counter part. If he wasn’t coming off a layoff and a ground based defeat I would feel more comfortable that he takes this one home, but I am still backing him. He has some value at $1.58, really anyone over $1.40 vs Marcello is worth a play. Parlay bet, maybe Proctor, Alcantara, and Trinaldo is worth a look.

Charles Oliveira $1.19 vs

Oliveira is low and getting lower so he is a no go for me. He should take this fight based on his ground skills and Ogle’s recent struggles, but there is always that issue with his ability to take a punch. If Andy-O can land a big shot he could turn things in his favour quickly. Most likely he won’t be in a position to do it, but its still a risk that this type of return does not warrant taking. If you can find a prop for a submission win that advances C.O. to a point of playability, then take a shot. Otherwise it is a pass.

Viscarde Andrade $1.74 vs

Andrade is a very good ground fighter, but I am just not seeing enough out of his to back him here. He took out a below average opponent, in very quick fight. A lot of people get impressed when a new fighter comes in a dispatched another relatively new guy quickly. I would rather see 3 rounds of domination in a debut, then a quick finish. Until we see several early endings out of a guy, I am not sold yet on what he can do. Musoke should be the better striker and that will show up. If he can avoid the takedown he wins this fight. I expect him to land some decent shots and keep Viscarde back pedalling all fight which will make it difficult to implement. Musoke will be in my top 5 value plays. I am thinking he will range somewhere from 3-5, possibly could creep to #2, but the threat of Andrade taking him down and grinding him out will prevent him from reaching the #1 spot. Either way he should be a mid-range bet at worst, possibly better.

Erick Silva $1.11 vs

Yeah, no. Silva has lost some of his shine of late, but either way this is the type line that you just laugh at and walk away. Could Sato pull it out? Possibly, as Silva does more then enough during fights to put himself in danger. Seriously who saw him getting knocked out by Kim? Not me, I had Kim grinding out a decision. Either way its a pass on this one, I might look at the props, but nothing straight up as there are so many other options for this card that your money is better used elsewhere then even on the high return of Sato.

Jacare Souza $1.19 vs

Every once and a while I will take a upset play and get absolutely roasted by the public. Sometimes I am right- Silva vs Overeem, Caceres vs Pettis and sometimes I am wrong Lim vs Saffiedine just to name a few. I get it though, based on most things, Jacare comes into this fight looking like a monster. He humbled Okami, he slept Camozzi, and he torched Herman. All fighters with major UFC experience. Jacare has been constantly improving and his striking skill has carried him to the point where he is now a dual threat. He can hurt you on the feet as he has done to a number of his recent victims, and he is a killer on the mat. The thing is Carmont is a talented fighter and he comes from an excellent camp known for shutting down opponents with a sound game plan. He is big, will have a length advantage, he is a talented striker, and a good wrestler. He has to survive the early onslaught and then settle in with his jab, some kicks, and a lot of movement. Could Souza submit him or score a knockout yup, but Carmont is a talented fighter that is more then capable of working a plan to take this one home. I would think that a medium sized bet is the play here. You still get a massive return without committing a tonne of cash.

Lyoto Machida $1.44 vs

The line is moving upward for Machida, which is a good thing. Mousasi is a talented striker, but he is returning after surgery, a long layoff, and he is cutting down a division. Additionally, he is fighting arguably the best striker he has faced in MMA to date. Mousasi has success because he limits his opponents and out strikes them, but Machida can work within that framework. He does also does an excellent job shutting down his opponent’s attack while doing damage without having to land at a high rate. If Mousasi can land kicks and/or counter with success as Machida comes in that is massive, but he needs to be successful at land with impact and regularity. Not easy vs Machida. I think these odds should be a little bit closer, but based on public perception of these 2 fighters I can see why it is where it is. I would consider using Machida on a parlay, but based on the capabilities of his opponent I won’t make him central to my betting success.


Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1. Yuri Alcantara $1.45

2. Charles Oliveira $1.19

3. Francisco Trinaldo $1.57

4. J

5. Lyoto Machida $1.44

====================

6. Erick Silva $1.11

7.

8.

9.

10. Felipe Arantes $2.05

11. Z

12.


 

Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. Lyoto Machida to Win by Decision $2.39 With Machida’s striking skill and Mousasi’s chin I can see this fight going the distance and the price is right.
2. $2.19 As long as Damm can get keep Jorge off him early he should get the better of the striking exchanges and out point him.
3. $2.40 He has to stay vertical to come away with this one, but I think he does against a pretty sloppy striker.
4. Felipe Arantes $2.05 Blanco is a wildcard and Arantes didn’t look great last time out, but I still like him here. Wait on this one because the price is moving up.
5. $5.44 Jacare is a monster, but there is no way Carmont should be overlooked like this and payout at this price.

The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

  • Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
  • I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.

Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. N/A
2.
3.
4.
5.

The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.

Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.

Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.

The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.

There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.


Prop Bets-

Douglas de Silva / Z

Felipe Arantes/

Yuri Alcantara/

Ivan Jorge/

Cristiano Marcello/ J

Charles Oliveira to Win by Submission $1.87- Ogle is a tough, but his struggles with recent grapplers leads me to believe that Oliveira will tap, snap, or nap him. Oliveira is simply too dangerous to play with on the mat.

Lyoto Machida to Win by Decision $2.39- Machida is dangerous and over 5 rounds he could get the job done, but I think he respects Mousasi’s striking enough not to take too many chances. Play it safe and simply out land him, while staying out of danger.