UFC Fight Night 34: Saffiedine vs. Lim –Bet Pack

 

Scott Johnson

UFC Fight Night: Singapore

Parlay Breakdowns

In an effort to accommodate different styles of MMA Bettors I have compiled 7 different possible betting cards to help you maximize your profit depending on what style of gambler you are and how much money you want to allocate to each card.

Big Money Bettors- for players with a higher bankroll willing to put a lot of cash on the line to turn a profit and build a growing account, focusing mainly on single bets and well placed parlays.

Recreational Bettors- for players that will allocate a decent sized bankroll per event, but would rather spread out their bets and try and turn smaller investments into big returns with larger parlays.

For Fun Bettors- for players that are putting a little bit of cash on the line just to have a good time and have no problem playing a high risk parlay hoping to cash that big payday.

Big Money Bettor, Budget: $500

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Issa/ Doane Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.85
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Price: $2.85 x Bet: $75
Payout: $213.75
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Wee/ Galera Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.35
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Price: $2.35 x Bet: $75
Payout: $176.25
 
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Parlay #3
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Selection 1: Hyun Gyu Lim $2.86
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Price: $2.86 x Bet: $75
Payout: $214.50
 
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Parlay #4
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Selection 1: Leandro Issa $1.83
Selection 2: Kimura/ Delos Reyes Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.25
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Price: $4.12 x Bet: $75
Payout: $309
 
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Parlay #5
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Selection 1: Max Holloway $1.49
Selection 2: Tatsuya Kawajiri $1.62
Selection 3: Luiz Dutra $1.68
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Price: $4.06 x Bet: $100
Payout: $406
 
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Parlay #6
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Selection 1: Taisumov/ Bang Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.55
Selection 2: Katsunori Kikuno $1.54
Selection 3: Dave Galera $1.55
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Price: $6.09 x Bet: $100
Payout: $609

Recreational Bettor, Budget: $250

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Issa/ Doane Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.85
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Price: $2.85 x Bet: $50
Payout: $142.50
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Wee/ Galera Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.35
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Price: $2.35 x Bet: $50
Payout: $117.50
 
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Parlay #3
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Selection 1: Hyun Gyu Lim $2.86
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Price: $2.86 x Bet: $50
Payout: $143
 
Parlay #4
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Selection 1: Leandro Issa $1.83
Selection 2: Tatsuya Kawajiri $1.62
Selection 3: Max Holloway $1.49
Selection 4: Katsunori Kikuno $1.54
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Price: $6.80 x Bet: $50
Payout: $340
 
Parlay #5
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Selection 1: Taisumov/ Bang Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.55
Selection 2: Kimura/ Delos Reyes Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.25
Selection 3: Luiz Dutra $1.68
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Price: $9.64 x Bet: $50
Payout: $482
 

For Fun Bettor, Budget: $50

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Max Holloway $1.49
Selection 2: Tatsuya Kawajiri $1.62
Selection 3: Dustin Kimura $1.38
Selection 4: Katsunori Kikuno $1.54
Selection 5: Issa/ Doane Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.85
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Price: 15.78 x Bet: $25
Payout: $394.63
 

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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Kimura/ Delos Reyes Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.25
Selection 2: Wee/ Galera Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.35
Selection 3: Hyun Gyu Lim $2.86
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Price: $15.12 x Bet: $25
Payout: $378.06
 

Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns

Leandro Issa $1.83 vs. Russell Doane $2.00

I like these odds, on a card full of unknowns. Doane as talent, but in all of his fights he was either losing because he couldn’t disengage from a grappling battle or he was winning the striking but refused to give up on looking for the ground game. Every time he hurt Papazian he would change levels to look for a takedown, instead of looking to build on his striking success. In another instance, he dropped his opponent badly and most likely only needed a few follow up shots to get the finish, but instead tried to lock on a arm triangle which failed and gave his opponent time to recover. Issa is a strong grappler and has beaten stronger grapplers then Doane. Unless Russell can catch him with a shot I see this fight going to the mat and Issa getting the better of him. Octagon shock can have a major impact, but that is a risk that we have to deal with on a card like this. I think that Issa is going to be one of my bigger single bets on the card and the line has been moving in his favour which hopefully will continue. I will have to evaluate his position compared to a couple of interesting props available on the card.

Dustin Kimura $1.38 vs. Jon Delos Reyes $3.19

Kimura has had his good moments in his brief UFC career, but he did spend a lot of time on his back versus Chico Camus and couldn’t capitalize after hurting Gagnon to the body which ultimately cost him the fight. He is a work in progress, but against an unproven debuting fighter like Delos Reyes he should have no problem getting the job done. Now, JDR has been out action for more then a year and could have made significant strides in that time, but until he has fought and executed at this level its hard to back him. When I saw him get submitted by Russell Doane with a RNC when there was no hooks established and as a result no body control that didn’t bode well for my opinion of his chances against a submission fighter. I would expect that Kimura will have got back in the gym and really put some time in after suffering his first loss and comes out very motivated. As far as betting on Kimura, I don’t see him worth anymore then a inclusion on a parlay. He doesn’t have the type of value for a single bet, but he could parlay with a Kawajiri, Dutra, or Galera for a decent paying 2 fighter parlay.

Mairbek Taisumov $1.36 vs. Tae Hyun Bang $3.39

I feel confident that Taisumov is leaving the cage with his hand raised after this fight, but considering the unknown elements regarding his debut and how that will effect him he really isn’t worth a bet at these odds. I was hoping the books would have him somewhere above the $1.50 mark and then he would be a decent parlay option but currently I just don’t see it being a play with the risk/reward involved. Bang is hardly a push over and although all indications are he gets second best here, it is far from impossible that he could pull this one out. Leave your cash in your pocket or account and look for better betting options here.Royston Wee $2.59 vs. Dave Galera $1.58

Unlike the previous fight I am a little more inclined to attempt a bet here on Galera. He is an aggressive submission fighter and has no problem working off his back, which is a place that Wee will almost certainly we willing to take the fight. If Wee had faced better opposition and dominated from top position with more regularity then just 2 fights, I would be concerned with Galera’s willingness to work from his guard and try to catch a sub. But, with Wee out of action for almost 2 years and working on less then 3 minutes of in-cage experience I am pretty confident that Galera will find a way to catch Wee in either a triangle or arm bar. From what I have seen of Galera he only needs a small opening to lock something up. With Royston, the combination of inexperience and the pressure from being the first to represent his country, along with the fact that it is his debut should generate enough mental lapses and resulting openings. I think Galera makes a decent combo play, nothing huge as far as a single bet is concerned, but he can work well with either another fav in his range or someone like the aforementioned Kimura who is slightly below.

Katsunori Kikuno $1.55 vs. Quinn Mulhern $2.55

Here is a case of a known commodity, Mulhern, who is coming into this fight as the underdog. Mulhern is making a desperation move to get down to 155, despite his considerable height, to try and jump start his career. He had a good 3-1 run in Strikeforce, but was blown out of the barn in his UFC debut by Rick Story. In that fight and his loss to Jason High he was completely incapable of getting his grappling game going and that took pretty much any hope of winning the fight off the table. I see something similar here. Kikuno is a Black belt in Judo and that alone should be enough to keep him vertical against a fighter with below average wrestling. Additionally, I see Mulhern struggling with the massive level change he will need to get in deep and take KK to the mat. If he can drag him down it could be trouble, but I see this as a grappler’s version of a puncher’s chance. I think Kikuno is a solid play for a parlay bet, double him up with Kawajiri or Dutra for a decent 2 fighter parlay.

Max Holloway $1.49 vs. Will Chope $2.75

Holloway has made significant strides in his career and in all reality should only be on a one fight losing streak, but for some ungodly judging of his fight against Bermudez. Hollway’s striking is improving significantly. His movement and distance management, along with his timing is excellent. The manner in which he was able to keep an aggressive wrestling on his heels for most of that fight was impressive. In all of the fights I saw of Chope, he seemed incredibly slow. He is a massive FW at 6’4″, but unlike with Johnny Jones, height and reach don’t always equate to victories. For Chope who is a grappler, he needs to find away to get close to Holloway and get this fight to the ground and I just don’t see it happening. I anticipate that Max is going to target the elongated midsection with kicks and punches and soften Chope up, leading to either a decision or eventual stoppage. If Chope can get this fight to the ground he has a chance to do some damage, but I think he will be hard pressed to get in a position to use his grappling game. I like Holloway as part of a parlay bet. With so few big dollar opportunities on this card, Holloway with another decent fav like Kawajiri or Dutra provides a decent payout.

Kyung-Ho Kang $1.38 vs. Shunichi Shimizu $3.19

Kang should be 2-0 in the UFC, not 0-1-0 1NC. He controlled the majority of the action against both Caceres and Camus, but somehow enough judges felt it appropriate to mark Kang down as the loser. BS. Kang is solid striker and a heavy top game fighter. He sometimes has trouble remaining active or at the least doing enough damage from top position to maximize his advantage, but he did show improved aggression in his last outing. Shimizu is far from a novice on the mat, but he takes risks and makes mistakes at a high enough rate that Kang should be able to capitalize on to win this bout. Kang doesn’t scream value here, but of the other fighters on his pay grade he is a better option then Taisumov and slightly edges out Kimura as far as adding him to a parlay. My suggestion would be to use Kang on one parlay and Kimura on a separate one. Kang makes for a decent bump and should break through with a ‘W’.

Kiichi Kunimoto $2.24 vs. Luiz Dutra $1.69

When I compared footage of these 2 men, Dutra just seemed to be the more effective fighter. He was better from top position, his striking look better, and overall I just felt that he stood the better chance of taking this home. The impact of a layoff and the long travel are a concern, but I just didn’t see enough from Kunimoto to suggest that he can win this fight if Dutra is on his game. The Brazilian’s time on TUF should also be a benefit as far as experience and training are concerned. Dutra has decent value as far as a betting option is concerned. The lack of familiarity on both sides keeps me from throwing down on a straight bet, but I think he is worth a look for a parlay play. Either double him up with a the likes of Kang or Kimura for a smaller parlay or consider going a little bit bigger and play him with Issa, Kawajiri, or Galera.

Tatsuya Kawajiri $1.65 vs. Sean Soriano $2.46

Kawajiri is a veteran fighter with a very good skill set, his wrestling, and had he made his UFC debut at FW 2-3 or more years ago I think he could have made a run. That being said, I still think he gets the job done here. Soriano comes out of the Blackzilian camp so he will be far from unprepared, but I just don’t see him having what it takes to keep TK from executing his wrestling based gameplan and grinding or submitting his way to a win. You can look at this fight in one of 2 ways. Either the UFC sees something in Soriano that makes him worth his inclusion in the co-main event despite his lack of experience or quality wins or the UFC recognizes the importance of Kawajiri getting off to a good start in his UFC career so they can use him to draw in the Japanese market and further expand their brand. With Okami gone, Kid inactive, Hioki inconsistent, and Gomi getting robbed in his last fight, the UFC needs a name Japanese star to be successful. I think I would rather go with the latter. Kawajiri makes for a decent single bet, he probably should be a heavier favourite here which means we are getting some value. He also works as a parlay bet as well, in any of the scenarios I mentioned in previous fight breakdowns.

Tarec Saffiedine $1.48 vs. Hyun Gyu Lim $2.86

Upset time! I like Saffiedine, he is a technically sound striker with very good defensive grappling. He had a game plan against Marquardt and he utilized it to the fullest taking away his title. Had he not won that title he would be just another fighter in the crowd, until he did something of significance in the UFC. Now he can carry with him the title of Strikeforce Champion, which stills holds some weight. All of that considered, I think that Lim is a bad match for him. Saffiedine really struggled against an average fighter in Tyler Stinson because; A) Stinson was aggressive and B) Stinson hit hard. Lim is far more aggressive and from all indications, hits harder. Lim might not be the prettiest fighter to watch and if you are backing him his willingness to stand and trade can make you cringe waiting for him to get clipped, but wow has he impressed so far. His knees are brutal and well timed and the manner in which he throws power and throws it in everything is impressive. Yes, Saffiedine could juke and jive his way to a win, waiting for Lim to punch himself out, but the intangibles along with the aforementioned style matchup has me favouring the Korean. Tarec has been out of actin for a long time, he is making his debut, and doing in with a significant time change in a foreign country. Lim has a much shorter distance to go and his body should be more acclimatized to the time of the fight then Tarec’s. I like a big bet here. He pays well and should be bet as such. I still have to look into my prop bets, but Lim is teetering on the #1 play of the day.


Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1. Max Holloway $1.49

2. Kyung-Ho Kang $1.38

3. Dustin Kimura $1.38

4. Leandro Issa $1.83

5. Dave Galera $1.55

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6. Katsunori Kikuno $1.54

7. Tatsuya Kawajiri $1.62

8. Mairbek Taisumov $1.36

9. Hyun Gyu Lim $2.86

10. Luiz Dutra $1.68


Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. Leandro Issa/ Russell Doane Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.85 I am shocked that the books are giving us an extra round, this fight could go the distance but the Under at this price is way too good to pass on.
2. Royston Wee/ Dave Galera Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.35 Wee scores the takedown, Galera starts chaining submissions together and hits one inside the first round against an untested opponent.
3. Hyun Gyu Lim $2.86 Lim is an aggressive striker and that type of style has caused problems for Saffiedine before. Plus the layoff, debut, and significant time change.
4. Dustin Kimura/ Jon Delos Reyes Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.25 Kimura should be able to lock something up inside the first 5-7 minutes and finish this fight. Coming off of his first defeat, he will be motivated to return to the win column.
5. Leandro Issa $1.83 Issa is too good a grappler for Doane to play around with on the mat and all indications are he will. He only drops to #5 because of the value of the other prop bet options.

The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

  • Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
  • I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.

Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. N/A
2.
3.
4.
5.

The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.

Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.

Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.

The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.

There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.


Prop Bets-

Royston Wee/ Dave Galera Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.35- 6 of their 7 combined fights have ended inside the first round, 5 of them inside the first 90 seconds. I expect that both men are going to be amped up and looked to get after it pretty quickly. Wee will most likely score an early takedown that Galera will be more then happy to concede, allowing him to start looking for submissions. The value is there, play the under.

Leandro Issa/ Russell Doane Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.85- I was quite shocked when I saw that they were offering this fight at 2.5 rounds with such a hefty payout on the under. Issa has won 6 of his 7 submission fights inside the first round and 10 of his 14 fights have finished before the end of the second frame. For Doane, he has competed in 8 fights that have ended inside the first round, and only 3 of his 15 pro bouts have gone the distance. Doane has been submitted twice in his pro career, plus once as an amateur so he is far from perfect on the mat. His willingness to engage in a grappling battle will cost him against a BJJ Black belt, arguably the best grappler he has faced to date. This fight ends early, play the under.

Mairbek Taisumov/ Tae Hyun Bang Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.55- I wasn’t too high on playing this fight straight up, but I think taking a stab at the total make sense here. The edge here appears to be on the under. Taisumov, who I have winning this bout, has finished his foe 19 times out of 20 victories. 13 of those 19 wins have come inside the first round and 3 more ended before the midway mark of the second, which means 84% of his victories make this a winning prop. Bang has been submitted, twice but gone the distance 13 times which is a concern. He also holds 8 knockout wins, with all 8 finishing inside the 1.5 round limit.

Kyung-Ho Kang/ Shunichi Shimizu Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.56- This play doesn’t have the high value of some of the other props, but it is still worth a look. Kang has gone the distance in both of his UFC bouts, and 6 times in his career. He has also only been finished twice in his career. For Shimizu, he has 9 decisions on is record while suffering just 3 finishes in 46 pro bouts. Kang holds top position, Shimizu defends off his back and this fight goes to the judges.

Dustin Kimura/ Jon Delos Reyes Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.25- There seems to be a theme here and if it holds true this event is going to last all of 45 minutes. Kimura is submission machine with 7 of 10 wins by submission. He also has 2 TKO victories and 7 of his 9 bouts that ended before the judges did so inside the midway mark of the bout. JDR has been submitted once in his career, and is a proven finisher as well with 6 of 7 wins coming inside the first 5 minutes. Play the odds, play the value, play the under.

Tarec Saffiedine/ Hyun Gyu Lim Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.35- Saffiedine has won 8 of 14 fights by decision and suffered all 3 of his career defeats by decision. He has excellent cardio, lacks knockout power, and while he has submission capabilities (5 subs), he doesn’t appear interested in using them. But, if Lim exhausts himself inside the first round or 2 trying to finish he will be vulnerable to getting put away. On the other side of the cage, I have Lim winning and 2.5 rounds should be more then enough to do so. Both his UFC bouts have ended early and 11 of his 12 wins have come before the second bell. Play the Under.