UFC Fight Night 32: Henderson vs. Belfort – Results and Bet Pack

 

Josh Harper

 

Online Prelims

125 lbs. – Jose Maria Tome (0-1 UFC) vs. Dustin Ortiz (0-0 UFC) – Ortiz via TKO

Maria seemed to be in control of the fight early on with his power punches and grappling, but Maria gassed out and Ortiz put the pressure on with his (controversial) g&p in round 3 until the ref stepped in.

155 lbs. – Adriano Martins (0-0 UFC) vs. Daron Cruickshank (3-1 UFC) – Martins via submission

Martins came out quickly and dropped Cruickshank several times before going to the ground and working for submissions. Martins took it back to the ground in round 2 and got the kimura submission.

155 lbs. – Thiago Tavares (6-5-1 UFC) vs. Justin Salas (2-1 UFC) – Tavares via submission

Tavares put the pressure on early with a nice takedown and immediately started working his g&p, but once Salas gave him the opportunity Tavares sunk in the rear naked choke in the 1st round.

185 lbs. – Thiago Perpetuo (1-0 UFC) vs. Omari Akhmedov (0-0 UFC) – Akhmedov via TKO

Akhmedov was stunned early on from a clash of heads, but Perpetuo couldn’t finish him and Akhmedov stayed alive with takedowns until he hit Perpetuo with several nice punches for the 1st round TKO finish.

145 lbs. – Godofredo Pepey (1-2 UFC) vs. Sam Sicilia (1-2 UFC) – Sicilia via TKO

Neither man did much on the feet, but once Sicilia gained top control he unloaded with hard g&p until the ref stepped in and saved Pepey for the 1st round TKO finish.

Fox Sports Main Card

145 lbs. – Rony Jason (3-0 UFC) vs. Jeremy Stephens (8-8 UFC) – Stephens via TKO

Jason continued to duck his head down every time after circling and Stephens caught onto it qickly by timing a perfect head kick that KO’d Jason instantly.

170 lbs. – Santiago Ponzinibbio (0-0 UFC) vs. Ryan LaFlare (1-0 UFC) – LaFlare via U. decision

LaFlare showcased solid boxing and wrestling for 3 rounds, but couldn’t get the finish as Ponzinibbio was very game despite his clear lack of cardio.

170 lbs. – Paulo Thiago (5-5 UFC) vs. Brandon Thatch (1-0 UFC) – Thatch via TKO

Thiago was able to secure a takedown early, but Thatch got back to his feet and threw a step in knee to the ribs of Thiago which dropped him and made him tapout for the 1st round finish 

205 lbs. – Rafael Cavalcante (0-1 UFC) vs. Igor Pokrajac (4-5(1) UFC) – Cavalcante via TKO

Pokrajac was strong at first by getting Cavalcante up against the cage, but Cavalcante locked in the muay thai clinch and started throwing vicious knees and then some g&p for the 1st round TKO finish.

185 lbs. – Cezar Ferreira (2-0 UFC) vs. Daniel Sarafian (1-1 UFC) – Ferreira via U. decision

Sarafian was able to land several good strikes during the fight, but Ferreira also landed good punches/kicks as well as securing multiple takedowns during rounds 2 and 3.

205 lbs. – Vitor Belfort (12-6 UFC) vs. Dan Henderson (6-4 UFC) – Belfort via KO

In the first minute Hendo walked right into a left uppercut from Belfort which started a brutal onslaught of strikes and before Hendo could recover Belfort landed a head kick for the 1st round KO finish.


UFC Fight Night 32

Parlay Breakdowns

In an effort to accommodate different styles of MMA Bettors I have compiled 7 different possible betting cards to help you maximize your profit depending on what style of gambler you are and how much money you want to allocate to each card.

Big Money Bettors- for players with a higher bankroll willing to put a lot of cash on the line to turn a profit and build a growing account, focusing mainly on single bets and well placed parlays.

Recreational Bettors- for players that will allocate a decent sized bankroll per event, but would rather spread out their bets and try and turn smaller investments into big returns with larger parlays.

For Fun Bettors- for players that are putting a little bit of cash on the line just to have a good time and have no problem playing a high risk parlay hoping to cash that big payday.

Big Money Bettor, Budget: $500

===================================================
Parlay #1
===================================================
Selection 1: Daniel Sarafian $2.28
===================================================
Price: $2.28 x Bet: $80
Payout: $182.40
 
===================================================
Parlay #2
===================================================
Selection 1: Jeremy Stephens $2.65
===================================================
Price: $2.65 x Bet: $80
Payout: $212
 
===================================================
Parlay #3
===================================================
Selection 1: Justin Salas $2.75
===================================================
Price: $2.75 x Bet: $80
Payout: $220
 
===================================================
Parlay #4
===================================================
Selection 1: Santiago Ponzinibbio $2.34
===================================================
Price: $2.34 x Bet: $50
Payout: $117
 
===================================================
Parlay #5
===================================================
Selection 1: Dan Henderson $2.95
Selection 2: Godofredo Pepey $2.06
===================================================
Price: $6.08 x Bet: $50
Payout: $304
 
===================================================
Parlay #6
===================================================
Selection 1: Adriano Martins $1.87
Selection 2: Daniel Sarafian $2.28
Selection 3: Justin Salas $2.75
===================================================
Price: $11.72 x Bet: $60
Payout: $703.20
 
==================================================
Parlay #7
===================================================
Selection 1: Thiago Perpetuo $2.80
Selection 2: Jeremy Stephens $2.65
Selection 3: Jose Maria $1.84
===================================================
Price: $13.65 x Bet: $40
Payout: $546
 
Parlay #8
===================================================
Selection 1: Dan Henderson $2.95
Selection 2: Daniel Sarafian $2.28
Selection 3: Santiago Ponzinibbio $2.34
===================================================
Price: $15.74 x Bet: $50
Payout: $787
 
Parlay #8- taken another big shot
===================================================
Selection 1: Dan Henderson $2.95
Selection 2: Daniel Sarafian $2.28
Selection 3: Thiago Perpetuo $2.80
Selection 4: Jeremy Stephens $2.65
Selection 5: Jose Maria $1.84
Selection 6: Justin Salas $2.75
Selection 7: Godofredo Pepey $2.06
Selection 8: Adriano Martins $1.87
Selection 9: Santiago Ponzinibbio $2.34
===================================================
Price: $2276.33 x Bet: $10
Payout: $22763.34

Recreational Bettor, Budget: $225

==================================================
Parlay #1
===================================================
Selection 1: Daniel Sarafian $2.28
Selection 2: Justin Salas $2.75
===================================================
Price: $6.27 x Bet: $50
Payout: $313.50
 
Parlay #2
===================================================
Selection 1: Jeremy Stephens $2.65
Selection 2: Santiago Ponzinibbio $2.34
===================================================
Price: $6.20 x Bet: $50
Payout: $310
 
Parlay #3
===================================================
Selection 1: Godofredo Pepey $2.06
Selection 2: Adriano Martins $1.87
Selection 3: Jose Maria $1.84
===================================================
Price: $7.09 x Bet: $40
Payout: $283.60
 
Parlay #4
===================================================
Selection 1: Justin Salas $2.75
Selection 2: Santiago Ponzinibbio $2.34
Selection 3: Thiago Perpetuo $2.80
===================================================
Price: $18.02 x Bet: $40
Payout: $720.80
 
Parlay #5
===================================================
Selection 1: Dan Henderson $2.95
Selection 2: Jeremy Stephens $2.65
Selection 3: Daniel Sarafian $2.28
===================================================
Price: $17.82 x Bet: $45
Payout: $802.08
 

For Fun Bettor, Budget: $50

===================================================
Parlay #1
===================================================
Selection 1: Daniel Sarafian $2.28
Selection 2: Jeremy Stephens $2.65
Selection 3: Justin Salas $2.75
Selection 4: Santiago Ponzinibbio $2.34
===================================================
Price: $38.88 x Bet: $25
Payout: $972.01
 

==================================================

Parlay #2
===================================================
Selection 1: Dan Henderson $2.95
Selection 2: Godofredo Pepey $2.06
Selection 3: Adriano Martins $1.87
Selection 4: Justin Salas $2.75
===================================================
Price: $31.25 x Bet: $25
Payout: $781.27
 

Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns

Jose Maria $1.84 vs

Ortiz is debuting and doing it in Brazil which is double tough. Maria has a great record, but it is padded there is no doubt about it. The big question still remains- is he UFC material and even if he isn’t is Ortiz UFC ready or not? Maria held his own early versus Lineker and even hurt him but eventually it fell to pieces. That was a tough fight and he took it on short notice which added to his problems. I am willing to take a risk on Maria because he has some elements on his side with the circumstances that Ortiz is dealing with. Much like my next pick I think that this is the type of bet that you double or triple up to avoid spending too much cash, but still have a decent amount up for grabs with a win.

Daron Cruickshank $1.87 vs

Do I like Cruickshank’s style of attack? Sure. Its enjoyable to watch, but when I was reviewing his fight with Yves Edwards while prepping for Yves last bout, I said to myself the next time Daron faces an aggressive striker he is going to be in trouble. He gives way too much ground and allows his opponent to take on the roll of the aggressor, which is big in the eyes of the judges. Even when he attacks he back tracks and makes it appear that he is under more distress then he really is. Then if you figure in that Brazilian crowd and how the judges will sometimes favour a local fighter and that is a recipe for disaster for Cruickshank. Martins is a good striker, but this is tough bout for him after a bit of a layoff and a its also a debut. I would tend to consider him a playable option as part of a 2 or 3 fight parlay for the night, not a single bet. Risk a little less, win a lot more.

Justin Salas $2.75 vs

This is one of those fights that I thought I had a bead on a solid underdog play, but entirely expected to have that squashed when Salas opened as the favourite. Clearly that is not the case. Salas has solid wrestling and surprisingly decent striking with power. While Thiago is a decent vet with a great ground game, the stats I pointed out in my breakdown have Tavares winless in his UFC career when he doesn’t win the takedown battle. So the big question is, can Thiago take Salas down? For my money, because that is exactly what it is for and of course yours, I don’t think that he can. Salas is a good wrestler and he uses movement pretty well on the feet to keep his opponent from getting a good read on him. He attacks at various speeds and that can really throw an opponents timing off. I think Salas has the power to check Thiago’s chin and even if he doesn’t he should have the ability to out point him. He will have gained a lot of experience in his last fight, a gritty battle with Aaron Riley, while Thiago has had 1:55 of in cage time since mid January of 2012. I think that Salas will be contending as a top play and should crack your top 3, with a decent sized bet. Check the value list for the final assessment.

Omari Akhmedov $1.43 vs

Another local fighter as an underdog? Really? Akmedov is new, Perpetuo has one UFC bout under his belt. We have seen Russians come and in and do well (Nurmagomedov, Khabilov, Amagov, and Bagautinov take a bow) and we have seen others bomb (Gashimov and Krylov the Ukrainian come to mind). Which category is Omari going to fall into. He seems quite similar to Azamat Gashimov in that no one really know who he is or where he is coming from. Oddsmakers will base fights on records and what appears to be a top level fighter simply because he has a lot of wins, whether they are quality or not. I wasn’t blown away with Thiago, but Omari didn’t show me that much either. What I did see is that Akhmedov’s TDD is an issue and if he can’t stay on his feet then he is going to be in trouble. I will take the Brazilian and the value in this one. I would think a mid-range straight up bet here is the way to go. He is pushing the $3.00 mark and that should be a decent return without breaking the bank.

Godofredo Pepey $2.06 vs

With the successful history if Brazilian fighting at home is it ever a bad thing to take a shot at an underdog fighting at home? Yes, but I don’t think so here. In fact, the line seems to be moving closer together so snatch up Pepey while you can. Sicilia has made strides, but to me he is a guy who hits hard, but his technique is still a major issue. When in doubt I’m going to roll with the better overall skill set which is the BJJ of Godofredo. Sicilia had a tonne of trouble with the transitions and grappling of Blanco and knowing that I think that Pepey will find equal if not more success. The nice thing about Lil Pepey is that even if he gets taken down or pulls guard he has fantastic sweeps and I just don’t see Sicilia being able to hold the position. Pepey’s striking is a little nerve racking, but his long reach accompanied by any improvement will force Sammy boy to have to come forward to close the distance leaving him open to be countered or taken down. I would think that Pepey will be a mid-range single bet or a double up with another fighter for a small parlay.

Rony Jason $1.53 vs Jeremy Stephens $2.65

This is where I expected this line to be. Stephens is another LW moving to FW that has experienced some success early. Will it continue? I was writing Stephens off after I picked Yves to beat him in his final 155 pound bout, but he impressed me in his debut at 145- mixing up his striking and showing decent wrestling. For Jason this is a big step up, he has mainly been facing TUF opponents until now. He has good striking and good BJJ, but he leaves openings on the feet and if he can work something off his back he is in a losing position. I am willing to back the vet versus the TUF champ in this bout and the value is there to consider an mid-sized to upper end bet. After the prelim odds are posted you can see where I rank this fight on the value list and how I bet it in the parlay section.

Santiago Ponzinibbio $2.34 vs Ryan LaFlare $1.64

I wasn’t sure what to make of this bout, LaFlare got the job done in his debut, but against lower level comp. Ponzinibbio hasn’t fought in a while, but looked great on the show prior to injuring his arm. I am tempted to take a small play on Santiago here, but I would really like to see him in action before I start dropping big dollars. It is his value that has my interest peaked for a small bet.

Paulo Thiago $3.29 vs Brandon Thatch $1.37

Thatch looked good in his debut, but this is another step up and he is doing it in Brazil. As a result I will pass on this fight and sit back and see how Thiago fairs. Like the next fight on the card, a prop bet might be warranted, check the prop section for more info.

Igor Pokrajac $3.09 vs Rafael Cavalcante $1.40

I don’t anticipate betting this fight. Cavalcante is a talented striker and he hits like a truck, but his chin and gas tank are his downfalls. With these two issues in play, I can’t back a fighter with this small amount of value. Igor hasn’t looked good of late, but if Feijao gasses; Pokrajac has the power to end his night with no problem. I might consider a prop bet, check below for the breakdown.

Cezar Ferreira $1.70 vs Daniel Sarafian $2.28

The TUF winner against the man he was supposed to face in the finals. The odds suggest he will win this fight, but if Sarafian comes through I wonder what the reaction will be as far as Cezar being still considered the ‘real’ TUF champ. For the most part both of these fighters are untested, but I do think that Sarafian gained a solid amount of experience in his fight with Dolloway. Sarafian is faster and hits hard. His lower stature will make it hard for Ferreira to change levels and get in on TDAs. His defensive striking is an issue and if Sergio Moraes can land some big shots, so can Sarafian. I like this play; I think that Sarafian could be my top play of the night, but that will depend on the prelims odds that haven’t been posted as of writing this. I think Sarafian should be one of your bigger investments.

Vitor Belfort $1.45 vs Dan Henderson $2.95

Hendo took the first fight, 50 odd years ago it seems like now. Belfort has looked much better of late, but I am still not sold. He stopped Bisping who was noticeably intimidated and he took out a debuting Rockhold. Henderson won’t be scared to trade with Belfort, but what this fight comes down to is that Henderson will be able to outwork Belfort. Vitor doesn’t throw a lot of strikes, he waits and waits before attacking and then resets. Henderson is much more aggressive, pushes the pace and tries to engage, while keeping his opponent back tracking. He struggled to track down Evans and Machida, but still did enough in those fights to make it close. The difference was that Rashad and Lyoto landed enough shots to overshadow what Dan did, Vitor won’t. We just need Henderson’s chin to hold up. I like a mid-sized bet on Dan, this is a tough fight don’t get me wrong but there are a few different plays I want to spread my cash out on.


Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1. Brandon Thatch $1.37

2. Daniel Sarafian $2.28

3. Jeremy Stephens $2.65

4. Justin Salas $2.75

5. Godofredo Pepey $2.06

====================

6. Santiago Ponzinibbio $2.34

7. Dan Henderson $2.95

8. Thiago Perpetuo $2.80

9. Rafael Cavalcante $1.40

10. Adriano Martins $1.87

11. Jose Maria $1.84


 

Kamikaze Overdrive Fighter Prediction Records

Event Prediction Record:

Best Prediction Record:

Worst Prediction Record:

Best Combined Prediction Record (at least 5 fights):

Worst Combined Prediction Record (at least 5 fights):

Main Card

 

Preliminary Card

 


Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. Daniel Sarafian $2.28 A lot of people felt that Sarafian was the uncrowned Champ of the season, but the odds don’t reflect that. I like what I have seen out of him much more then Mutante, he wins this fight.
2. Justin Salas $2.75 Salas isn’t a well known fighter and he is fighting an established guy at home. I still think Salas’s wrestling and better striking game carries the day.
3. Jeremy Stephens $2.65 He comes from a great camp and when he is focussed he is a tough nut to crack. I think he will edge this fight out or even slam home a big KO winner.
4. Santiago Ponzinibbio $2.34 I wasn’t that impressed with LaFlare in his debut, while Santiago looked like a world beater in his time on TUF, prior to the injury. I think he has value here.
5. Dan Henderson $2.95 Dan is Dan, he is going to be aggressive in this fight as he is desperate for a win. I think he has the ability to outwork Vitor and while he might slow down late, Vitor isn’t known for being a cardio horse either.

The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

  • Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
  • I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.

Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. N/A Too many underdogs to consider anything here.
2.
3.
4.
5.

The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.

Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.

Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.

The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.

There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.


Prop Bets-

Godofredo Pepey/

Rafael Cavalcante to Win by KO/TKO/DQ $1.83- With all of Feijao’s wins coming by way of knockout, if he is going to win this bout it will most likely follow suit. He did submit Mike Kyle before it was overturned, but the knockout at $1.83 is decent value and really the only way we should feel comfortable betting on Cavalcante.

Igor Pokrajac/Rafael Cavalcante Total Rounds Under 1.5- Following the same though process as the above play, Cavalcante has never gone the distance and if he gasses Igor has the power to put him away. Even at 1.5 rounds this is a solid play. Play the Under.

Vitor Belfort/Dan Henderson Total Rounds Under 2.5- Many are forecasting the end of Hendo’s vaunted granite chin in this fight and the under covers that along with the possibility of Vitor getting H-bombed into oblivion. Both guys could also gas well in advance of the start of the third round, which could lead to the finish.