UFC on FOX 12: Lawler vs Brown- Prelim Predictions

Prelim Predictions

 

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155lbs- Daron Cruickshank (15-4-0) vs #14 Jorge Masvidal (26-8-0)

Headlining the preliminary bouts, Jorge ‘Gamebred’ Masvidal squares of with the “Detroit Superstar” Daron Cruickshank. Masvidal most recently defeated Pat Healy and is 6-2 in his last 8 bouts. Cruickshank is riding a 2 fight winning streak with back to back 0utstanding head kicks knockouts over Erik Koch and Mike Rio- he is 9-2 in his last 11 fights.

Masvidal and Cruickshank are primarily striking based fighters with a combined 19 knockouts. Masvidal is a talented boxer with sharp combinations built off a stiff lead jab to both the head and body, excellent footwork, and quick head movement. Jorge will work his kicking game in combination with his hands, and likes to slip in the odd jumping knee strike.

The former TUF competitor comes from a diverse striking background. Cruickshank is a Taekwondo black belt and offers a wide of variety of kicking techniques. All 3 of his UFC knockouts have come as a result of a head kick. He does a good job setting up his kicks with his hands, flashing quick combinations and following behind with a leg strike. Masvidal will need to focus his defense on limiting Daron’s kicking game as he was dropped by spinning back kick from Rustam Khabilov that ultimately cost him the round and the fight.

While the Michigan native is a talented striker, he tends to give up ground both after attacking and when under attack. In previous fights against Yves Edwards and John Makdessi Cruickshank spent large portions of the fight back pedalling and relinquishing ground which is not a favourable position in the eyes of the judges.

This match could also spend some time on the mat. Cruickshank is a former Collegiate wrestler, but it has been Jorge that has been the more effective wrestler in recent bouts. Masvidal utilized a dominant ground game against Tim Means, landing 6 takedowns and earlier in his career he earned a shot at the Strikeforce title with a similar game plan against KJ Noons. Daron has averaged just over 1 takedown per fight compared to Masvidal’s 2.76 per bout at a 68% completion rate.

Neither fighter has massive submission numbers, but Jorge did tap out Michael Chiesa and Cruickshank’s last defeat came via straight arm bar versus Adriano Martins.

The last 2 fights that didn’t end inside the distance saw Cruickshank get out landed by both of his opponents resulting in a loss and a narrow split decision win. Masvidal’s stand-up isn’t as flashy, but it is a bit more technically sound. His skillset in combination with Cruickshank’s willingness to give ground and allow his opponent to frequently land first will give Jorge the edge on the feet. Cruickshank may look to his wrestling to change the pace of the fight, but Gamebred has excellent takedown defense and should be able to land a couple key takedowns of his own. As long as Jorge can avoid a potential game changing kick from his opponent he should be control the majority of the action, so my prediction is Jorge Masvidal to defeat Daron Cruickshank by decision.

155lbs- Daron Cruickshank (15-4-0) vs #14 Jorge Masvidal (26-8-0)

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Who will win this UFC Fight? Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions
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205lbs- Kyle Kingsbury (11-5-0 1NC) vs Patrick Cummins (5-1-0)

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205lbs- Kyle Kingsbury (11-5-0 1NC) vs Patrick Cummins (5-1-0)

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Who will win this UFC Fight? Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions
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170lbs- Tim Means (20-6-1) vs Hernani Perpetuo (17-4-0 1NC)

In the Welterweight division, Tim ‘The Dirty Bird’ Means attempts to get his UFC record back to even when he tangles with UFC sophomore Hernani Perpetuo. Means returned on short notice and promptly dropped a decision to Neil Magny, his third straight UFC defeat. Perpetuo’s 7 fight winning streak was definitively snapped in his debut by Jordan Mein.

Perpetuo trains out of the famed Brazilian fight camp Nova Uniao along side Jose Aldo and Renan Barao. He is a multi-time kickboxing champion and has recorded 7 wins by knockout. He landed a few quality shots against Mein, but for the most part was struggling to find his range connecting on only 26 of his 99 strikes thrown. In his pre-UFC footage he gives the initial impression of a calculated striker, picking his spots to attack, but once the pace picks up he trends towards a much wilder and less refined approach.

The American is 15-1 in fights ended by a knockout. He dispatched Justin Salas in just over 60 seconds in his promotional debut and in his time outside the UFC he owns knockout wins over Pete Spratt and UFC on Fox 12 main carder Bobby Green. Means has an excellent clinch game, using his above average height to control his opponent and deliver debilitating knees and elbows. His distance striking is very good, with hard leg kicks and slick combinations. In 5 UFC bouts he has averaged 3.6 SLpM compared to 2.24 strikes absorbed.

Recently, the undoing of both men has been their defensive wrestling. Perpetuo was taken down 4 times on 4 tries in his debut and spent large portions of the bout on his back. He displayed a mainly defensive guard, but had trouble controlling the posture of his opponent and took some damage as a result.

Means has been put on his back 16 times in his last 3 UFC fights and not surprisingly lost all 3 contests. He was able to do some damage against Jorge Masvidal off his back, drawing blood with some slashing elbows. He normally does a decent job of punishing his opponents with strikes when they do shoot in and makes them work hard to finish their attempt.

Means would appear to be the more likely of the two to incorporate a ground based attack, but this fight will most likely be decided on the feet.

Both men should be in for a better performance this time out, as Means took his fight on short notice and Hernani was debuting. Perpetuo’s struggle with distance against Jordan Mein does not bode well for him against the rangier Means.  As previously mentioned, the key to beating Means has been takedowns as demoed by his last 3 UFC foes. Those were his only 3 losses over his last 15, which includes 9 wins by knockout. The Brazilian doesn’t have the wrestling game to maintain the trend, so my prediction is Tim Means to defeat Hernani Perpetuo by TKO. 

170lbs- Tim Means (20-6-1) vs Hernani Perpetuo (17-4-0 1NC)

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Who will win this UFC Fight? Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions
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155lbs- Mike De La Torre (12-4-0) vs Brian Ortega (8-0-0)

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155lbs- Mike De La Torre (12-4-0) vs Brian Ortega (8-0-0)

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Who will win this UFC Fight? Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions
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155lbs- Akbarh Arreola (22-7-1) vs Tiago Trator (18-4-2 1NC)

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155lbs- Akbarh Arreola (22-7-1) vs Tiago Trator (18-4-2 1NC)

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145lbs- Steven Siler (23-12-0) vs Noad Lahat (7-1-0)

In the Bantamweight division, ‘Super’ Steven Siler battles Noad ‘Neo’ Lahat. Siler has lost 2 in a row, most recently suffering a controversial knockout defeat against Rony Jason. Interestingly enough, the man Jason defeated in the finals of their TUF Brazil season- Godofredo Pepey, ended Lahat’s undefeated run with a first round flying knee knockout.

Lahat may have entered the UFC undefeated, but the AKA product had faced some less then stellar competition with his last 4 wins coming over fighters with a combined record of 31-56. He also had several large periods of inactivity between fights.

With a very aggressive and in your face style, Siler has earned finishes in 16 of his 23 wins. His last win was an abrupt first round finish of Mike Brown and he also earned a Guillotine based submission win over Joey Gambino. He can work from distance, but Siler does some of his best work in close- utilizing a strong clinch game to control his opponent and land knees and elbows. He averages 3.38 strikes, while giving up just over 3.

He doesn’t have overwhelmingly strong wrestling numbers, but he has 13 wins by submission and averages almost 2 sub attempts per fight. If he can get on top he can do damage or at the very least hold the position and score with the judges. Conversely, Dennis Bermudez and Darren Elkins had success controlling Siler on the mat with 6 TDs each.

Siler struggled early in his career, losing 9 times inside the distance (4 knockouts & 5 submissions). Until his last bout, he appeared to have those problems under control going 7 straight contests without getting finished.

Lahat’s debut was memorable for all of the wrong reasons. Despite not being known for his technical striking abilities, Pepey highlight realed  Neo with a brutally accurate flying knee that left him slumped against the cage wall. Lahat has serviceable striking, but does nothing too overwhelming. He will flash a head kick and likes to throw a flurry and close the distance behind it. He appears relatively easy to hit and tends to leave his chin exposed when attacking.

He has 4 wins by submission and is an above average grappler which might be his key to victory versus Siler. In his final pre-UFC bout he put on a grappling clinic using a variety of takedown methods to plant his opponent on the mat. He showed sound positional control, riding his adversary, routinely taking away his base, all the while peppering him with strikes. While he won the fight, his lack of urgency and inability to do significant damage despite his dominance is a bit of a concern- especially at the UFC level.

Lahat is better then his debut indicated, but his lack of high level competition isn’t a positive in the face of a gritty and hardnosed opponent like Siler. In recent defeats, Siler has struggled with power wrestling based attacks and while Lahat is a good technician, he doesn’t possess the brute grinding power that has troubled the TUF alumni. Neo will struggle to fend off the aggressive advances of Siler and will eventually be overwhelmed either on the wall or the floor, so my prediction is Steven Siler to defeat Noad Lahat by submission.

145lbs- Steven Siler (23-12-0) vs Noad Lahat (7-1-0)

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170lbs- Andreas Stahl (9-0-0) vs Gilbert Burns (7-0-0)

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170lbs- Andreas Stahl (9-0-0) vs Gilbert Burns (7-0-0)

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115lbs- Juliana Lima (6-1-0) vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk (6-0-0)

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115lbs- Juliana Lima (6-1-0) vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk (6-0-0)

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Who will win this UFC Fight? Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions
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2 Responses to “UFC on FOX 12: Lawler vs Brown- Prelim Predictions”

  1. Sam Shehadeh says:

    FIGHT PREDICTIONS: GSP FINISHES HENDRICKS IN THE 4TH OR 5TH,RASHAD BY DECISION,MCDONALD DECISION,WOODLEY BY TKO,ELLIOT BY DECISION,CERRONE BY TKO,LEITES BY SUBMISSION,STORY BY DECISION,PEREZ BY DECISION,HIGH BY TKO,PETTIS BY SUMBISSION,DONOVAN BY KO

  2. Ricky Ross says:

    “Sampo is coming off a loss against former Bellator Bantamweight champion and potential future title challenger Josh Sampo.”

    WTF???

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