UFC on FOX 12: Lawler vs Brown- Prelim Predictions

Prelim Predictions

 

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155lbs- Daron Cruickshank (15-4-0) vs #14 Jorge Masvidal (26-8-0)

Headlining the preliminary bouts, Jorge ‘Gamebred’ Masvidal squares of with the “Detroit Superstar” Daron Cruickshank. Masvidal most recently defeated Pat Healy and is 6-2 in his last 8 bouts. Cruickshank is riding a 2 fight winning streak with back to back 0utstanding head kicks knockouts over Erik Koch and Mike Rio- he is 9-2 in his last 11 fights.

Masvidal and Cruickshank are primarily striking based fighters with a combined 19 knockouts. Masvidal is a talented boxer with sharp combinations built off a stiff lead jab to both the head and body, excellent footwork, and quick head movement. Jorge will work his kicking game in combination with his hands, and likes to slip in the odd jumping knee strike.

The former TUF competitor comes from a diverse striking background. Cruickshank is a Taekwondo black belt and offers a wide of variety of kicking techniques. All 3 of his UFC knockouts have come as a result of a head kick. He does a good job setting up his kicks with his hands, flashing quick combinations and following behind with a leg strike. Masvidal will need to focus his defense on limiting Daron’s kicking game as he was dropped by spinning back kick from Rustam Khabilov that ultimately cost him the round and the fight.

While the Michigan native is a talented striker, he tends to give up ground both after attacking and when under attack. In previous fights against Yves Edwards and John Makdessi Cruickshank spent large portions of the fight back pedalling and relinquishing ground which is not a favourable position in the eyes of the judges.

This match could also spend some time on the mat. Cruickshank is a former Collegiate wrestler, but it has been Jorge that has been the more effective wrestler in recent bouts. Masvidal utilized a dominant ground game against Tim Means, landing 6 takedowns and earlier in his career he earned a shot at the Strikeforce title with a similar game plan against KJ Noons. Daron has averaged just over 1 takedown per fight compared to Masvidal’s 2.76 per bout at a 68% completion rate.

Neither fighter has massive submission numbers, but Jorge did tap out Michael Chiesa and Cruickshank’s last defeat came via straight arm bar versus Adriano Martins.

The last 2 fights that didn’t end inside the distance saw Cruickshank get out landed by both of his opponents resulting in a loss and a narrow split decision win. Masvidal’s stand-up isn’t as flashy, but it is a bit more technically sound. His skillset in combination with Cruickshank’s willingness to give ground and allow his opponent to frequently land first will give Jorge the edge on the feet. Cruickshank may look to his wrestling to change the pace of the fight, but Gamebred has excellent takedown defense and should be able to land a couple key takedowns of his own. As long as Jorge can avoid a potential game changing kick from his opponent he should be control the majority of the action, so my prediction is Jorge Masvidal to defeat Daron Cruickshank by decision.

155lbs- Daron Cruickshank (15-4-0) vs #14 Jorge Masvidal (26-8-0)

  • Jorge Masvidal $1.44 (52%, 37 Votes)
  • Daron Cruickshank $3.11 (48%, 34 Votes)

Total Voters: 71

Who will win this UFC Fight? Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions
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205lbs- Kyle Kingsbury (11-5-0 1NC) vs Patrick Cummins (5-1-0)

In the Light Heavyweight division, Kyle ‘Kingsbu’ Kingsbury returns to action to face former c0-main eventer Patrick ‘Durkin’  Cummins. Cummins is 1-1 in the UFC and is coming off a TKO victory over Roger Narvaez. Kingsbury was last seen riding a 3 fight losing streak that was preceded by a 4-1 start to his Octagon career.

September 2012 was the last time that Kingsbury was seen in action, approximately 22 months ago. Ring rust could definitely be a factor for the AKA member.

Physically, Kingsbury will have a 2″ height advantage and 3″ reach advantage.

A former NCAA Division 1 wrestler and Daniel Cormier training partner, Cummins’s approach usually hinges on his ability to take his opponent to the mat. He had moderate success in his win over Narvaez landing 3 of 5 takedown attempts. He struggled with his entries, shooting from too far out and then getting shrugged off. Where he did find success was with his reactionary shot, catching his opponent coming forward and changing levels. On the mat, he dropped some decent GnP, posturing up to land with more power and eventually forcing his opponent to cover up.

‘Kingsbu’ comes from an athletic background, playing College Football, but he has struggled with wrestling based opponents. Against the likes of Jared Hamman and Fabio Maldonado he was able to implement a ground based attack, but when faced with superior wrestlers like Tom Lawlor and Stephan Bonnar he was routinely put on his back with relative ease. He gave up a combined 11 takedowns in those 2 fights and had next to nothing off his back. If he is able to see the takedowns coming he has a good sprawl that he will utilize to shut them down.

Neither man is overly gifted on the feet, but the edge would have to go to Kingsbury. He throws a decent straight jab and can do some damage with his Thai clinch/ knee combination. At the same time he has been knocked out twice and has been the target of some absolutely brutal striking based assaults. Cummins landed some decent strikes in the early stages of his fight with Daniel Cormier. He has some good kicks and was landing a quick jab. His stand-up didn’t look quite as good in his last bout though, getting tagged with some shots and his footwork appeared a little disoriented.

What this fight will come down to is Kingsbury’s ability to keep this fight vertical and so far against anyone with decent wrestling credential he has struggled. The potential for significant amount of ring rust and some already questionable cardio will further complicate issues. If he can land early he could take control of the bout, but Cummins’s wrestling should carry the day, so my prediction is Patrick Cummins Kyle Kingsbury by decision.

205lbs- Kyle Kingsbury (11-5-0 1NC) vs Patrick Cummins (5-1-0)

  • Patrick Cummins $1.85 (79%, 52 Votes)
  • Kyle Kingsbury $2.37 (21%, 14 Votes)

Total Voters: 66

Who will win this UFC Fight? Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions
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170lbs- Tim Means (20-6-1) vs Hernani Perpetuo (17-4-0 1NC)

In the Welterweight division, Tim ‘The Dirty Bird’ Means attempts to get his UFC record back to even when he tangles with UFC sophomore Hernani Perpetuo. Means returned on short notice and promptly dropped a decision to Neil Magny, his third straight UFC defeat. Perpetuo’s 7 fight winning streak was definitively snapped in his debut by Jordan Mein.

Perpetuo trains out of the famed Brazilian fight camp Nova Uniao along side Jose Aldo and Renan Barao. He is a multi-time kickboxing champion and has recorded 7 wins by knockout. He landed a few quality shots against Mein, but for the most part was struggling to find his range connecting on only 26 of his 99 strikes thrown. In his pre-UFC footage he gives the initial impression of a calculated striker, picking his spots to attack, but once the pace picks up he trends towards a much wilder and less refined approach.

The American is 15-1 in fights ended by a knockout. He dispatched Justin Salas in just over 60 seconds in his promotional debut and in his time outside the UFC he owns knockout wins over Pete Spratt and UFC on Fox 12 main carder Bobby Green. Means has an excellent clinch game, using his above average height to control his opponent and deliver debilitating knees and elbows. His distance striking is very good, with hard leg kicks and slick combinations. In 5 UFC bouts he has averaged 3.6 SLpM compared to 2.24 strikes absorbed.

Recently, the undoing of both men has been their defensive wrestling. Perpetuo was taken down 4 times on 4 tries in his debut and spent large portions of the bout on his back. He displayed a mainly defensive guard, but had trouble controlling the posture of his opponent and took some damage as a result.

Means has been put on his back 16 times in his last 3 UFC fights and not surprisingly lost all 3 contests. He was able to do some damage against Jorge Masvidal off his back, drawing blood with some slashing elbows. He normally does a decent job of punishing his opponents with strikes when they do shoot in and makes them work hard to finish their attempt.

Means would appear to be the more likely of the two to incorporate a ground based attack, but this fight will most likely be decided on the feet.

Both men should be in for a better performance this time out, as Means took his fight on short notice and Hernani was debuting. Perpetuo’s struggle with distance against Jordan Mein does not bode well for him against the rangier Means.  As previously mentioned, the key to beating Means has been takedowns as demoed by his last 3 UFC foes. Those were his only 3 losses over his last 15, which includes 9 wins by knockout. The Brazilian doesn’t have the wrestling game to maintain the trend, so my prediction is Tim Means to defeat Hernani Perpetuo by TKO. 

170lbs- Tim Means (20-6-1) vs Hernani Perpetuo (17-4-0 1NC)

  • Tim Means $1.43 (78%, 35 Votes)
  • Hernani Perpetuo $3.15 (22%, 11 Votes)

Total Voters: 45

Who will win this UFC Fight? Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions
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145lbs- Mike De La Torre (12-4-0) vs Brian Ortega (8-0-0)

In the Featherweight division, Mike de la Torre makes his second promotional appearance when he welcomes new arrival Brian Ortega to the UFC. De la Torre’s 3 fight winning streak ended in his debut against Mark Bocek, while Ortega has yet to taste defeat in his young career.

De La Torre took his debut on short notice and at Lightweight, performing well despite the less then welcoming conditions. Ortega hasn’t fought since the start of 2014 after his debut bout with Diego Brandao was cancelled when Brandao got hurt to close to the fight to rebook an opponent.

Ortega holds both the RFA and RTC Featherweight title belts, successfully defending the latter once.

Taking a look at the numbers, submissions have accounted for 3 of de la Torre’s 4 defeats. He has also earned 6 wins by submission, so he is far from a complete liability on the mat. He did a pretty admirable job rejecting the majority of Bocek’s advances when attempting to get the fight to the mat. He displayed strong hips and is a pretty decent scrambler. His struggles to create separation from Bocek are also a major concern, especially considering how tired and busted up the Canadian was.

The other piece of the puzzle is the grappling game of Ortega. He is a BJJ Black belt training out of Black House MMA. Of his 8 career wins, 4 have come via submission. 3 of those wins have been the result of a Triangle choke, including his win over Thomas Guimond. Against Guimond, he did a great job of chaining his attempts together, attacking with a variety of holds, before eventually locking up the triangle for the finish. He can work from both top and bottom position, and while spending too much time on your back isn’t always great, he can clearly make it work to his advantage.

This fight should be decided on the mat, but de la Torre demoed some serviceable striking skills. If he can keep it standing that might be the key to his success. He was able to land a nice jab and mixed in a quick uppercut. His timing was on and he was more then willing to stand and trade. Unfortunately, he also got tagged a couple of times by a less then elite level striker. For Ortega there is limited footage of striking game available, partially because of how dominant he has been on the mat.

MDLT’s defensive wrestling looked decent in his debut against a fighter known for having a smothering ground game. If he can replicate that success he could very well walk away with a win here. Unfortunately, Bocek was coming off a fairly lengthy layoff and could have been suffering from a bit of ring rust. Ortega is an aggressive grappler and should have the wrestling attack capable of putting his opponent on the mat, where he can bring his submission game to bear, so my prediction is Brian Ortega to defeat Mike de la Torre by submission.

155lbs- Mike De La Torre (12-4-0) vs Brian Ortega (8-0-0)

  • Brian Ortega $1.65 (60%, 21 Votes)
  • Mike De La Torre $2.44 (40%, 14 Votes)

Total Voters: 35

Who will win this UFC Fight? Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions
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155lbs- Akbarh Arreola (22-7-1) vs Tiago Trator (18-4-2 1NC)

In the Lightweight division, Mexico’s Akbarh Arreola makes his promotional debut when he battles Brazilian Tiago Trator. Arreola has won 3 in a row, all via submission, prior to getting the call to the big show. Trator is currently riding a 9 fight winning streak including 7 straight wins in the Jungle Fight promotion.

Arreola has fought several fighters with ties to the UFC including Mac Danzig, Antonio McKee, Ronys Torres, Juan Manuel Puig, and Gabe Ruediger. His only win coming over Ruediger via submission back in 2007. He also was bounced from his TUF 15 opportunity by Myles Jury via decision.

Both fighters have fairly high finishing rates. Arreola has scored 21 of his 22 wins inside the distance- 5 knockouts and 16 submission wins. Trator has a bit more of a even spread of victories, submitting 6 adversaries and knocking out 7 more. Conversely, both men have seen defeats pile up in particular areas. Arreola has been knocked out in 5 of his 7 defeats, while Trator has lost by submission in 3 of his 4 losses.

‘El Cabellero’ is an aggressive and unorthodox striker. He will use a variety of kicking techniques, including a hard push kick attempting to catch his opponent moving forward. He lacks a lot of technical refinement in his striking, winging wild looping punches without really setting anything up. Consequently he is very hittable, often backing straight up when under pressure and as previously mentioned he has been stopped several times.

The South American combatant is far from refined in his own striking attack. He will mix his kicks and punches up a little more effectively, landing a solid inside leg kick. His Thai clinch and subsequent knee strikes could be his most damaging weapon and will most likely make an appearance against Arreola if he elects to come in close. Trator can easily be drawn into a wild slugfest and sometimes bares a resemblance to Erik Silva when the action gets heated.

Tiago has yet to be stopped, which suggest his chin is the more likely of the two to hold up- but that isn’t always the case.

On the mat, Akbarh has a big edge in total submission wins and has never been submitted. Like Trator on the feet, Akbarh should look to take advantage of his opponent’s greatest area of vulnerability which appears to be his submission defense. While Arreola is a finisher he has also struggled at times when put on his back, getting neutralized on the floor for the duration of his bout with Ronys Torres. Trator hasn’t been submitted since 2011 (12 fights), but he will need to be careful even from top position if the fight goes to the mat as his opponent will attack off his back.

This fight will most likely be an entertaining scrap- high on excitement and low and technical execution. Arreola has struggled in almost all of his opportunities against next level competitions, and while Trator hasn’t fought at this level either- 7 wins under the Jungle Fight banner and capturing their LW title is nothing to dismiss. Tiago’s aggressive and often overwhelming striking attack should be able to replicate the type of conditions that have bested Arreola in the past, so my prediction is Tiago Trator to defeat Akbarh Arreola by TKO.

155lbs- Akbarh Arreola (22-7-1) vs Tiago Trator (18-4-2 1NC)

  • Tiago Trator $1.50 (75%, 24 Votes)
  • Akbarh Arreola $2.91 (25%, 8 Votes)

Total Voters: 32

Who will win this UFC Fight? Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions
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145lbs- Steven Siler (23-12-0) vs Noad Lahat (7-1-0)

In the Bantamweight division, ‘Super’ Steven Siler battles Noad ‘Neo’ Lahat. Siler has lost 2 in a row, most recently suffering a controversial knockout defeat against Rony Jason. Interestingly enough, the man Jason defeated in the finals of their TUF Brazil season- Godofredo Pepey, ended Lahat’s undefeated run with a first round flying knee knockout.

Lahat may have entered the UFC undefeated, but the AKA product had faced some less then stellar competition with his last 4 wins coming over fighters with a combined record of 31-56. He also had several large periods of inactivity between fights.

With a very aggressive and in your face style, Siler has earned finishes in 16 of his 23 wins. His last win was an abrupt first round finish of Mike Brown and he also earned a Guillotine based submission win over Joey Gambino. He can work from distance, but Siler does some of his best work in close- utilizing a strong clinch game to control his opponent and land knees and elbows. He averages 3.38 strikes, while giving up just over 3.

He doesn’t have overwhelmingly strong wrestling numbers, but he has 13 wins by submission and averages almost 2 sub attempts per fight. If he can get on top he can do damage or at the very least hold the position and score with the judges. Conversely, Dennis Bermudez and Darren Elkins had success controlling Siler on the mat with 6 TDs each.

Siler struggled early in his career, losing 9 times inside the distance (4 knockouts & 5 submissions). Until his last bout, he appeared to have those problems under control going 7 straight contests without getting finished.

Lahat’s debut was memorable for all of the wrong reasons. Despite not being known for his technical striking abilities, Pepey highlight realed  Neo with a brutally accurate flying knee that left him slumped against the cage wall. Lahat has serviceable striking, but does nothing too overwhelming. He will flash a head kick and likes to throw a flurry and close the distance behind it. He appears relatively easy to hit and tends to leave his chin exposed when attacking.

He has 4 wins by submission and is an above average grappler which might be his key to victory versus Siler. In his final pre-UFC bout he put on a grappling clinic using a variety of takedown methods to plant his opponent on the mat. He showed sound positional control, riding his adversary, routinely taking away his base, all the while peppering him with strikes. While he won the fight, his lack of urgency and inability to do significant damage despite his dominance is a bit of a concern- especially at the UFC level.

Lahat is better then his debut indicated, but his lack of high level competition isn’t a positive in the face of a gritty and hardnosed opponent like Siler. In recent defeats, Siler has struggled with power wrestling based attacks and while Lahat is a good technician, he doesn’t possess the brute grinding power that has troubled the TUF alumni. Neo will struggle to fend off the aggressive advances of Siler and will eventually be overwhelmed either on the wall or the floor, so my prediction is Steven Siler to defeat Noad Lahat by submission.

145lbs- Steven Siler (23-12-0) vs Noad Lahat (7-1-0)

  • Steven Siler $1.43 (78%, 36 Votes)
  • Noad Lahat $3.17 (22%, 10 Votes)

Total Voters: 46

Who will win this UFC Fight? Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions
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170lbs- Andreas Stahl (9-0-0) vs Gilbert Burns (7-0-0)

In the Welterweight division, Andreas Stahl make his first UFC appearance against fellow UFC debutant Gilbert Burns who is filling in for an injured Viscardi Andrade. Both men enter this bout having yet to taste defeat; Stahl has finished his last 2 opponents, while Burns hasn’t gone the distance in his 7 pro bouts.

The Brazilian is a highly regarded and incredibly accomplished BJJ competitor. He trains alongside many current UFC competitors in the Blackzilian camp out of Florida.

Stahl will have just a slight height advantage, but Burns has traditionally competed as a Lightweight until recently when he felt the cut to 155 pounds was simply too draining. This could create an interesting dynamic as Burns tangles with a larger man than what he has previously.

Burns has won multiple BJJ Gold medals at various World Champions. He is incredibly gifted on the mat having secured 4 of his 7 wins by submission and has drawn comparisons to the likes of Demian Maia and Jacare Souza. Of his 4 submissions, 2 have come by armbar and 2 more by rear naked choke. Based on Burns’s capabilities he is clearly comfortable fighting off his back, but should he failed to secure a submission that is a difficult position to win a fight from. That hasn’t been a problem so far, but Stahl will look to change that.

The Swede hasn’t displayed the consistent finishing capabilities of his counterpart throughout his career, but he appears to have found his stride of late. Stahl comes from a Greco-Roman wrestling base and captured a gold medal at the Swedish wrestling championships prior to staring his MMA career. He has recorded multiple ground oriented decision wins and just a single submission- tapping out Abusupiyan Magomedov via rear-naked choke.

If this fight stays on the feet, Stahl has some pretty serviceable striking. He has recorded 3 wins by knockout- 2 coming in the second round. Burns’s striking is his second best attribute, but with 3 KOs of his own including a devastating opening round of stoppage of Paulo Gonçalves he is still dangerous.

There is limited footage available of both fighters, but still enough information to analyze how this contest could play out. Although Stahl comes from a wrestling background, he may be best served by using his defensive skills to keep this fight off the mat and take away Burns’s greatest attribute. Considering that the Swede has always fought at WW he could hold a physical advantage, but technique will often trump size. Burns is a highly ranked BJJ player, entering the Octagon with significant expectations. Stahl is a solid prospect, unfortunately his greatest strength plays directly into a grappling buzzsaw, so my prediction is Gilbert Burns to defeat Andreas Stahl by submission.

170lbs- Andreas Stahl (9-0-0) vs Gilbert Burns (7-0-0)

  • Gilbert Burns $1.66 (78%, 25 Votes)
  • Andreas Stahl $2.40 (22%, 7 Votes)

Total Voters: 32

Who will win this UFC Fight? Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions
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115lbs- Juliana Lima (6-1-0) vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk (6-0-0)

In the burgeoning UFC Strawweight division, undefeated Polish striker Joanna Jedrzejczyk makes her promotional debut against 1-fight Invicta FC veteran Juliana Lima. Lima rebounded from the first loss of her pro career with a win by TKO last October. Jedrzejczyk’s last victory came over former UFC fighter and the newly retired Rosi Sexton by KO.

Jedrzejczyk has competed at 125 pounds but the opportunity to sign with the UFC has her moving to Strawweight to make both her divisional and promotional debuts.

This bout will be a tale of two conflicting game plans. Lima will be focussed almost entirely on getting this fight to the canvas and attacking with her grappling. Conversely, Jedrzejczyk has all intentions of remaining vertical and unloading with her Muay Thai based striking arsenal.

The Brazilian has faced some lower level competition in recent bouts and as a result looked fairly dominant. Two of her last 3 wins have come over debuting fighters and those three opponents have combined for a record of 3-7. As mentioned above, Juliana will want to drag her opponent to the ground by any means possible. When on top she has some pretty decent ground and pound and can do some damage from the guard. If she can stack up her opponent she will either look to drop strikes or swings her legs to the side and pass into side control. She did have some difficulty fending off the takedowns of her opponent in her only Invicta bout, but can and will attack off her back.

Expect to see Lima try to land strikes to set up her takedowns or change levels when under attack in an effort to catch her opponent coming forward.

If the Polish striker can be put on her back her striking game will be muted and her lack of experience may show, but that is easier said that done. She is physically quite strong, sprawling out, putting weight on the head and back of her opponent, and then landing some punches once she feels she is out of danger. Her clinch game is solid and simply put, her opponent is going to have a difficult time taking her down or even maintaining any semblance of control in close.

Jedrzejczyk is a vicious striker with hard leg kicks and a bomb of a right hand. She will change levels to attack the body and strings her combinations together well, often finishing with a hard low kick. Even when she opted to limit her kicking game against the takedown focused Sexton she was still incredibly effective. She dropped Rosi several times with her right hand and eventually stopped her, something that Jessica Andrade was unable to do.

Conversely, the Brazilian’s striking is fairly simplistic. Her leg kicks are hard, but open her up to contenders and her punching if limited. Against Katja Kankaanpaa she took some pretty could strikes to the chin and when she does get tagged she looks almost immediately to take the fight to the floor.

With two debuting fighters, with limited experience, and one cutting to 115 for the first time it can be difficult to gauged how each will perform under the big lights. Lima already has an Invicta bout under her belt, but it was a loss and Jedrzejczyk’s stoppage of Sexton under the Cage Warriors banner was far more impressive. Sexton was entirely unable to take Jedrzejczyk off her feet and Lima lacks the wrestling chops needed to bring her top game into play. The manner in which the Brazilian shrinks when tagged on the feet isn’t encouraging either. The weight cut is a bit of a concern, but look for Jedrzejczyk to use lateral movement and strong hips to discourage the TDAs and land a primarily boxing based attack with relative consistency and power, so my prediction is Joanna Jedrzejczyk to defeat Juliana Lima by TKO. 

115lbs- Juliana Lima (6-1-0) vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk (6-0-0)

  • Joanna Jedrzejczyk $1.37 (72%, 26 Votes)
  • Juliana Lima $3.41 (28%, 11 Votes)

Total Voters: 36

Who will win this UFC Fight? Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions
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>>>Prelim Prediction Archives<<<

2 Responses to “UFC on FOX 12: Lawler vs Brown- Prelim Predictions”

  1. Sam Shehadeh says:

    FIGHT PREDICTIONS: GSP FINISHES HENDRICKS IN THE 4TH OR 5TH,RASHAD BY DECISION,MCDONALD DECISION,WOODLEY BY TKO,ELLIOT BY DECISION,CERRONE BY TKO,LEITES BY SUBMISSION,STORY BY DECISION,PEREZ BY DECISION,HIGH BY TKO,PETTIS BY SUMBISSION,DONOVAN BY KO

  2. Ricky Ross says:

    “Sampo is coming off a loss against former Bellator Bantamweight champion and potential future title challenger Josh Sampo.”

    WTF???

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