UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira- Prelim Predictions

Prelim Predictions

 

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125lbs- #2 Joseph Benavidez (19-4-0) vs #8 Tim Elliott (10-4-1)

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125lbs- #2 Joseph Benavidez (19-4-0) vs #8 Tim Elliott (10-4-1)

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Who will win this UFC Fight? Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions
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155lbs- Takanori Gomi (34-9-0 1NC) vs Isaac Vallie-Flagg (14-4-1)

In the Lightweight division, Pride legend Takanori Gomi returns to action when he meets Strikeforce veteran Isaac Vallie-Flagg. Gomi is coming off a controversial split decision loss that halted a 2 fight winning streak and Vallie-Flagg saw his 12 fight unbeaten streak fall in one-sided fashion at UFC Fight Night 35.

Gomi is returning to the cage for the first time since March 3rd, 2013- a near 13 month layoff.

The Fireball kid is known for his power that he traditionally carries in a brutal right hook, but he can also deploy it with his left. He has won 13 times by knockout, including twice in the UFC. Early in is Octagon run he struggled with the more technical striking of his opponents, especially the jab heavy arsenal of Kenny Florian.  More recently, he has found success using a pawing jab of his own and mixing his power strikes up with combinations. He also has a solid kicking game, mainly focusing on his opponents legs and utilizing a solid inside leg strike.

His defensive improvements were on display against Diego, as Gomi outlanded him 81-68 and did a good job of stifling his usual aggression with a composed defensive front.

A former Strikeforce competitor, Vallie-Flagg is an aggressive and unorthodox striker. His power numbers aren’t overwhelming with just 5 knockouts in 19 fights, but he find success through aggression and a high output. He likes to implement a lot of knee and leg strikes, along with a Thai clinch for close range attacks. He utilizes a push kick like a jab to set distance. He did have some trouble with the more technically based striking of JZ Cavalcante, but had a lot of success landing shots around the defensive guard of Edwards. In his last fight he was simply overmatched by a superior striker start to finish.

Neither man has significant grappling numbers, in fact submissions account for the majority of each man’s defeats- Gomi-6 and Vallie-Flagg-3. Each man has matched their submission defeat totals in the win column, but nothing to speak of in recent appearances. V-F has shown a vulnerability to a wrestling based attacks. He was taken down 7 times in his last 3 outings and Elias Silverio did a lot of damage once he put him on his back.

Gomi hasn’t shown much offensive wrestling in the UFC, focusing more on his defensive work, but with V-F’s noticeable shortcomings he could try to change gears and look for takedown opportunities.

Gomi did an excellent job of backing Sanchez off and making it hard for him to come forward through the continuous use of pawing jab. If the American is unable to push the pace his offensive attack becomes far less effective. The layoff and East to West travel are concerns for Gomi, but my prediction is Takanori Gomi to defeat Isaac Vallie-Flagg by decision.

155lbs- Takanori Gomi (34-9-0 1NC) vs Isaac Vallie-Flagg (14-4-1)

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Who will win this UFC Fight? Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions
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135lbs- #14 Jessamyn Duke (3-0-0 1NC) vs #12 Bethe Correia (7-0-0)

In the Women’s Bantamweight division, TUF competitor Jessamyn Duke makes her second UFC appearance when she meets fellow Octagon sophomore Bethe Correia. Duke debuted with a 3 round decision win over fellow cast mate Peggy Morgan. Correia pulled off the upset in his first fight, narrowly edging out long time veteran Julie Kedzie via split decision.

Neither fighter has a massive amount of experience, but Correia gets a slight edge with 7 fights to Duke’s 4. The Brazilian is also coming off a win over the most noteworthy opponent that either lady has faced to date. For Jessamyn, she certainly gained a wealth of experience training in the TUF house along side 2 of the biggest talents that the division has to offer.

Physically, Duke will have some considerable advantages. Standing 5 11″, the American will have 6″ of height on her opponent and a 9″ reach advantage.

In her debut, Duke demoed a decently crafted striking repertoire. She relies mainly on her boxing, but will mix in a few kicks and should try to include more in the future. She throws in combination, working her punches around the guard of her opponent and despite just a single knockout win, she clearly was doing damage with her onslaught.

The most effective aspect of Duke’s striking assault was her volume. She drastically outlanded Morgan by a count of 201-45.

Bethe’s output wasn’t nearly as lofty in her first go around, but she appeared to have more power then Duke. She had a lot of success leaping in and landing heavy shots against a well versed striker in Kedzie. She throws a quick front kick to the body and should use it to help deal with the reach of Duke. Under the tutelage of the Pitbull Brothers its not surprising that she is a capable striker, but her forte is on the mat.

A BJJ Blue belt, Correia is a solid top position grappler. She has yet to score a submission win her career, as she is more inclined to focus on positional control and GNP. She scored on just one her takedown attempts versus Kedzie, but look for her to focus more on her grappling skills versus Duke. Jessamyn is also a BJJ Blue belt and has had more success with her submissions, scoring one as a pro, 2 as an amateur, and one more on the show.

Duke’s biggest difficulties in her debut came in the third round when she initiated a very rudimentary headlock and ultimately pulled Morgan into back mount, where she was able to do the most damage of the fight. Duke’s lack of experience nearly cost her the fight, but against Correia a mistake like that will most certainly create bigger issues.

The length advantage that Duke has will have presents a difficult front for Correia to attack as long as this fight remains vertical. When Bethe gets on the inside, look for her to either establish control of Duke’s body or box her up at close range where the long arms of the American are far less useful. Correia will also find success shooting in on the long legs of her opponent, dragging her to the ground, and maintaining top control. Bethe is traditionally a slow starter, so she will need get it going early to avoid falling behind on the cards, but my prediction is Bethe Crorreia to defeat Jessamyn Duke by decision.

135lbs- #14 Jessamyn Duke (3-0-0 1NC) vs #12 Bethe Correia (7-0-0)

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Who will win this UFC Fight? Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions
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155lbs- Vagner Rocha (11-3-0) vs Joe Ellenberger (14-1-0)

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155lbs- Vagner Rocha (11-3-0) vs Joe Ellenberger (14-1-0)

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Who will win this UFC Fight? Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions
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155lbs- Danny Castillo (16-6-0) vs Charlie Brenneman (19-6-0)

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155lbs- Danny Castillo (16-6-0) vs Charlie Brenneman (19-6-0)

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Who will win this UFC Fight? Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions
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135lbs- Chris Beal (8-0-0) vs Patrick Williams (7-3-0)

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135lbs- Chris Beal (8-0-0) vs Patrick Williams (7-3-0)

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Who will win this UFC Fight? Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions
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One Response to “UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira- Prelim Predictions”

  1. Sam Shehadeh says:

    FIGHT PREDICTIONS: GSP FINISHES HENDRICKS IN THE 4TH OR 5TH,RASHAD BY DECISION,MCDONALD DECISION,WOODLEY BY TKO,ELLIOT BY DECISION,CERRONE BY TKO,LEITES BY SUBMISSION,STORY BY DECISION,PEREZ BY DECISION,HIGH BY TKO,PETTIS BY SUMBISSION,DONOVAN BY KO

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