UFC 179: Aldo x Mendes 2- Prelim Predictions

Prelim Predictions

 

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170lbs- William Macario (8-1-0) vs Neil Magny (12-4-0)

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170lbs- William Macario (8-1-0) vs Neil Magny (12-4-0)

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Who will win this UFC Fight? Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions
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155lbs- Yan Cabral (11-1-0) vs Naoyuki Kotani (33-11-7)

In the Lightweight division, Yan Cabral makes his 3rd trip to the Octagon when he meets long time ZST veteran Naoyuki Kotani. Cabral debuted with a win over Danny Mitchell, but lost his sophomore appearance against Zak Cummings. Kotani returned to the UFC after a 7 year and 21 fight stretch away from the promotion- his 13 fight winning streak was ended by Norman Parke.

Cabral’s undefeated run came to an end in his last fight, which can often lead to a rejuvenation for a fighter as they are forced to address shortcomings or other issues that seem minimal while still undefeated.

The Japanese import has faced multiple UFC caliber opponents, both in the promotion and outside- Yves Edwards, Dennis Siver, Thiago Tavares, Jorge Masvidal, Rich Clementi, Marcus Aurelio, Roger Huerta and the aforementioned Parke. Unfortunately, for Naoyuki he lost all 8 of those matchups which brings into question his ability to find success at this level.

Both men carry submission heavy win totals. Cabral has secure 10 of his 11 wins by tapout, while Kotani 25 off 33. 50% of Cabral’s wins have come by Arm-Triangle choke which would suggest an affinity for working from top position. Although he does have a solid sweep and reversal arsenal if put on his back. Kotani has 12 arm based submission wins on his resume, along with a few less common holds like an Achilles lock and a Leg scissor choke. His only submission defeat came via Reverse Full Nelson.

Kotani has far more MMA experience, but Cabral is the far more accomplished grappler. It is also worth noting that Kotani fought 25 times under the ZST banner, an organization that doesn’t permit striking while on the mat and is contested inside a cage. His inexperience in these two areas can weigh heavy in grappling based bouts in the UFC.

Cabral’s undoing against Cummings was the wrestler’s ability to mute Yan’s offense with a heavy top game, but that won’t be the case with Kotani. Naoyuki was taken down twice by Parke and going back to his first UFC run he struggled with the ground game of Thiago Tavares giving up 4 TDs on only 6 attempts. This fight should contain some entertaining back and forth exchanges on the mat, with Cabral rebounding front of his home crowd after his first career loss- my prediction is Yan Cabral to defeat Naoyuki Kotani by submission.

155lbs- Yan Cabral (11-1-0) vs Naoyuki Kotani (33-11-7)

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Who will win this UFC Fight? Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions
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125lbs- #15 Scott Jorgensen (15-9-0) vs Wilson Reis (18-5-0)

In the Flyweight division, former WEC Bantamweight title challenger Scott Jorgensen faces Bellator alumni Wilson Reis. Jorgensen snapped a 3 fight losing streak with a win over Danny Martinez, he has won 2 of his last 7. Reis made a successful Flyweight debut, defeating Joby Sanchez by decision- he has won 6 of his last 7.

While many battles between grappling reliant competitors often result in striking heavy exchanges, this one will most likely be decided on the ground.

Both fighters come from grappling backgrounds. Jorgensen is a former NCAA Division 1 wrestler averaging 2.73 takedowns at a 46% completion rate. Reis is a BJJ Black belt with 8 wins coming by way of submission, including 3 of his last 4 fights prior to signing on with the UFC. Reis has also compile some impressive takedown numbers, averaging 5.33 takedowns per fight completing nearly 60% of his tries.

In each of Scotty’s last 6 defeats, he has lost the takedown battle by a lopsided margin of 18-4. Conversely, he has put up an impressive 20-0 total in his last 5 victories. His success clearly hinges on his ability to get the better of the grappling exchanges.

Reis’s ability to routinely takedown and out grapple the likes Yuri Alcantara and Ivan Menjivar indicates that he should be able to find similar success against Jorgensen. Even after cutting to 125 pound, Jorgensen was badly out grappled by Zach Makovsky and submitted by Jussier Formiga (head-butt noted). He has been submitted 3 times in his career.

Jorgensen may be best served to keep this fight standing as Reis has been knocked out twice and has some clear defensive liabilities. Remaining vertical against Reis will be easier said then done and the end result will be Jorgensen spending too much time on his back, so my prediction is Wilson Reis to defeat Scott Jorgensen by decision. 

125lbs- #15 Scott Jorgensen (15-9-0) vs Wilson Reis (18-5-0)

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Who will win this UFC Fight? Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions
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145lbs- Felipe Arantes (16-5-1 2NC) vs Andre Fili (13-2-0)

In the Featherweight division, Sao Paulo native Felipe Arantes fights Alpha Male team member Andre Fili for his first fight outside of the USA. Arantes fights for the 7th time inside the Octagon most recently having defeated Maximo Blanco- he is 3-2-1 in the UFC. Fili is coming off just his second career loss, submitting to Max Holloway at UFC 172.

145lbs- Felipe Arantes (16-5-1 2NC) vs Andre Fili (13-2-0)

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Who will win this UFC Fight? Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions
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155lbs- Gilbert Burns (8-0-0) vs Christos Giagos (10-2-0)

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155lbs- Gilbert Burns (8-0-0) vs Christos Giagos (10-2-0)

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Who will win this UFC Fight? Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions
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155lbs- Fabricio Camoes (14-8-1) vs Tony Martin (8-2-0)

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155lbs- Fabricio Camoes (14-8-1) vs Tony Martin (8-2-0)

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Who will win this UFC Fight? Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions
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4 Responses to “UFC 179: Aldo x Mendes 2- Prelim Predictions”

  1. Sam Shehadeh says:

    FIGHT PREDICTIONS: GSP FINISHES HENDRICKS IN THE 4TH OR 5TH,RASHAD BY DECISION,MCDONALD DECISION,WOODLEY BY TKO,ELLIOT BY DECISION,CERRONE BY TKO,LEITES BY SUBMISSION,STORY BY DECISION,PEREZ BY DECISION,HIGH BY TKO,PETTIS BY SUMBISSION,DONOVAN BY KO

  2. Ricky Ross says:

    “Sampo is coming off a loss against former Bellator Bantamweight champion and potential future title challenger Josh Sampo.”

    WTF???

  3. UFC Gramma says:

    Great job on the visual aspects of the show. Appreciate the research effort that goes into your predictions…will continue to follow you!

  4. adam says:

    i loved your new setup i hope u can keep it that way. much much better than beforeee!

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