UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz- Preliminary Predictions

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135lbs- #2 Miesha Tate (15-5-0) vs #3 Sara McMann (8-1-0)

In the Women’s Bantamweight division, two former title challengers collide as Miesha ‘Cupcake’ Tate fights Olympic Silver Medalist Sara McMann. Tate has won 2 fights in row, winning decisions over Rin Nakai and Liz Carmouche. McMann earned a controversial decision over former Invicta Bantamweight champion Lauren Murphy in her last outing.

Tate’s unsuccessful battles with Ronda Rousey have been well documented and it appears she has started to rebuild. McMann lasted all of 66 seconds with the champ. Her win over Murphy was her first bout since the loss and the title fight hangover could have impacted her performance.

Both will stand 5’6″ tall, but McMann will have a slight 2″ reach advantage.

McMann clearly comes from the more decorated wrestling background, but Tate has a significant experience advantage when it comes to employing her ground skills in MMA. McMann has averaged 6.34 TDs at a remarkable 75% rate while defending 100% of her opponent’s tries. Tate lands a more modest 2.73 TDs @ 36%, with a 54% TDD.

Tate has 6 submission wins to her name.

Tate is the more capable striker and she will need to exploit that to the utmost. McMann is still very reliant on her wrestling, looking to spend a minimal amount of time exchanging. More importantly, McMann’s success will hinge on her striking volume from top position.

She struggled to mount much offense in her last fight and it nearly negated her wrestling advantage.

For Miesha, some questions have arose regarding her Fight IQ,  as she has made some questionable in-cage decisions of late. She has been taken down 8 times in her last 2 fights, so the takedown should be there for Sara. Tate can operate off her back, but McMann will stifle her submission game with a strong base. Look for Sara to be more active from the top, as she takes Tate down with regularity. She appeared to be a little underwhelmed in her first fight after the title loss, but that won’t be the case here against a much higher profile opponent- my prediction is Sarah McMann to defeat Miesha Tate by decision.

135lbs- #2 Miesha Tate (15-5-0) vs #3 Sara McMann (8-1-0)

  • Sara McMann $1.68 (56%, 34 Votes)
  • Miesha Tate $2.47 (44%, 27 Votes)

Total Voters: 61

Who will win this UFC Fight? Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions
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185lbs- Anderson Silva (33-6-0) vs Nick Diaz (27-9-1)

  • Anderson Silva $1.25 (68%, 46 Votes)
  • Nick Diaz $4.25 (32%, 22 Votes)

Total Voters: 68

Who will win this UFC Fight? Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions
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185lbs- Ed Herman (23-10-0 1NC) vs Derek Brunson (12-3-0)

In the Middleweight division, Ed ‘Short Fuse’ Herman makes his 17th promotional appearance when he battles former Strikeforce competitor Derek Brunson. Herman has alternated wins and loses over his last 4 fights, most recently beating Rafael Natal by decision. Brunson returned to the win column by defeating Lorenz Larkin at UFC 177- he is now 3-1 since joining the UFC.

This bout was originally slated to take place at UFC on FOX 13 on December 13th, 2014, but was scrapped at the last minute when Derek Brunson was stricken with a stomach virus. As a result of the rescheduling Herman hasn’t fought for 8 months, while Brunson has been out of action for a more moderate 5 months.

‘Short Fuse’ will stand 1″ taller then his opponent, but it will be Brunson holding a 4″ reach advantage.

Both men come from strong grappling backgrounds. Herman is a BJJ Brown belt and has won 13 times by submission. A former NCAA Division 2 wrestler, Brunson has averaged just over 4 takedowns per fight at a 41% completion rate, along with defending 100% of his opponent’s TDAs. He has won 4 times by submission.

Herman has been through a number of grueling battles, and while he isn’t the most athletically gifted he has made due. Unfortunately, he will be at a significant speed disadvantage against Brunson which will both hinder his success on the feet and prevent him from gaining an advantageous position on the mat. Brunson is slowly tightening up his defensive striking holes, but ‘Short Fuse’ doesn’t have the power to capitalize on them. Brunson will control the majority of the action with his wrestling against an opponent who can operate off his back, but has give up 11 takedowns in his last 4 non-winning efforts- my prediction is Derek Brunson to defeat Ed Herman by decision.

185lbs- Ed Herman (23-10-0 1NC) vs Derek Brunson (12-3-0)

  • Derek Brunson $1.22 (71%, 29 Votes)
  • Ed Herman $4.75 (29%, 12 Votes)

Total Voters: 41

Who will win this UFC Fight? Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions
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170lbs- #3 Tyron Woodley (14-3-0) vs #7 Kelvin Gastelum (11-0-0)

  • Tyron Woodley $2.23 (58%, 35 Votes)
  • Kelvin Gastelum $1.80 (42%, 25 Votes)

Total Voters: 60

Who will win this UFC Fight? Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions
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125lbs- #3 Ian McCall (13-4-1) vs #6 John Lineker (24-7-0)

This bout was originally scheduled to be the co-main event of UFC Fight Night 56 last November. The bout was cancelled when McCall fell ill on the day of the weigh-ins. As a result, the breakdown and prediction originally included in the UFN 56 Episode of the show has been ‘re-broadcast’ as part of the latest episode of the Prediction Podcast. Found here.

125lbs- #3 Ian McCall (13-4-1) vs #6 John Lineker (24-7-0)

  • Ian McCall $1.50 (69%, 31 Votes)
  • John Lineker $2.75 (31%, 14 Votes)

Total Voters: 45

Who will win this UFC Fight? Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions
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155lbs- Joe Lauzon (24-10-0) vs Al Iaquinta (10-3-1)

  • Al Iaquinta $1.60 (55%, 32 Votes)
  • Joe Lauzon $2.55 (45%, 26 Votes)

Total Voters: 58

Who will win this UFC Fight? Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions
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185lbs- Rafael Natal (18-6-1) vs Tom Watson (17-7-0)

In the Middleweight division, 11-fight UFC veteran Rafael Natal takes on former BAMMA Middleweight champion Tom ‘Kong’ Watson. Natal is coming off a win, albeit disputable, over Chris Camozzi, ending a 2 fight losing streak. Watson earned his second UFC win taking a decision over Sam Alvey, he had dropped back to back fights to Nick Catone and Thales Leites.

‘Kong’ will stand 1″ taller then the Brazilian, but Natal will have a 4″ reach advantage.

Natal comes in with a record of 8-0 in fights ended by submission, in comparison Watson has an identical record in fights ending in KO/TKO. Conversely, Watson has lost twice by submission, along with several decision defeats based on being out grappled. Just as concerning, Natal has been knocked out 4 times, twice in the UFC.

The Brit gave up 5 takedowns in each of his first 4 UFC fights. His opponents did have to make a combined 38 attempts to land the 20 successful TDs. Watson has been using a much lower stance to help fend off his grappling heavy adversaries and has also proven difficult to keep on his back after being taken down.

Natal’s grappling numbers haven’t been overwhelming of late. He has completed just 4 of his last 23 TDAs, with only 1 submission win in his last 12 fights. He has had difficulty with conditioning, which has compromised his performance in longer bouts. In his last 3 fights to go the distance he has completed only 2 of 17 attempts after the conclusion of the opening round.

Watson has a clear liability against grappling heavy adversaries, but he has showed continued improvement defensively. Natal has relied more on his striking in recent bouts and even if he does look to take ‘Kong’ down, his cardio will prevent him from doing so from bell to bell. Watson’s kickboxing arsenal will give him the edge on the feet, and his pension for attacking his opponent’s base with low kicks will further slow Natal down. The Brit will also do some damage in the clinch with knees and elbows. Watson will need to ward off the early attack, but my prediction is Tom Watson to defeat Rafael Natal by TKO.

185lbs- Rafael Natal (18-6-1) vs Tom Watson (17-7-0)

  • Rafael Natal $1.59 (51%, 21 Votes)
  • Tom Watson $2.58 (49%, 20 Votes)

Total Voters: 41

Who will win this UFC Fight? Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions
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185lbs- #11 Thales Leites (24-4-0) vs #14 Tim Boetsch (18-7-0)

  • Thales Leites $1.29 (70%, 33 Votes)
  • Tim Boetsch $4.23 (30%, 14 Votes)

Total Voters: 47

Who will win this UFC Fight? Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions
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145lbs- Diego Brandao (22-10-0) vs Jimy Hettes (11-2-0)

In the Featherweight division, Diego Brandao faces Jimy Hettes in a fight crucial to the future of both fighters. Brandao has dropped back to back fights to Conor McGregor and Dustin Porier- he had won 3 straight prior to his recent struggles. Hettes is coming off a loss to Dennis Bermudez and is just 1-2 in his last 3 fights with his only win coming over Robert Whiteford.

Hettes will stand just 2″ taller then Brandao, but will have a 7″ reach advantage.

A Judo and BJJ Brown belt, Hettes has secured 10 of his 11 career wins by submission- 4 by RNC. He has averaged 5.39 TDs per fight, but has landed just 5 takedowns in his last 3 outings compared to 16 in the 2 bouts prior.

Not to be outdone, Brandao has won 5 times by sub, with 2 coming inside the Octagon. He is a BJJ Black belt, averaging 3.13 TDs at a 68% completion rate. More importantly, he has defended 81% of his opponents’ tries and has never been taken down more then once in a UFC bout.

Hettes’s 2 defeats have been largely centered around is inability to take his opponent down. Brandao will be the superior striker, both in technique and power. He has 9 KO/TKOs compared to zero for Hettes. Brandao is difficult to take down, but if Hettes is able to survive the early stages of the fight he could take advantage of a fighter known for having a questionable gas tank. Unfortunately, Hettes doesn’t exactly have world-class conditioning either. Bradao’s defensive wrestling will keep this fight vertical and force Hettes to make due without his strongest attribute. Hettes took a lot of punishment in the Bermudez fight before relenting and Brandao will most likely pace himself to avoid gassing out, so my prediction is Diego Brandao to defeat Jimy Hettes by decision.

145lbs- Diego Brandao (22-10-0) vs Jimy Hettes (11-2-0)

  • Diego Brandao $1.60 (66%, 25 Votes)
  • Jimy Hettes $2.53 (34%, 13 Votes)

Total Voters: 38

Who will win this UFC Fight? Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions
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170lbs- #13 Jordan Mein (29-9-0) vs Thiago Alves (25-9-0)

  • Jordan Mein $1.91 (53%, 25 Votes)
  • Thiago Alves $1.91 (47%, 22 Votes)

Total Voters: 47

Who will win this UFC Fight? Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions
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185lbs- Richardson Moreira (7-3-0) vs Ildemar Alcantara (20-7-0)

In the Middleweight division, Ildemar Alcantara battles countryman Richardson ‘Rick Monstro’ Moreira. Alcantara has just a single win in his last 3 fights after starting his UFC run with 2 wins. Moreira’s Octagon career last all of 20 seconds before he was knocked out by Marcos de Lima- he had one back bouts prior to his debut.

Alcantara is moving up from Welterweight for this bout, but he did make his debut as a Light Heavyweight so he is accustom to fighting at heavier weight classes. Moreira competed as a Heavyweight on the show and in his debut, so he will also be making his divisional debut at 185 as well.

While both men stand 6’2″, Ildemar will have a 6″ reach advantage.

Alcantara will also hold a sizeable experience advantage with 27 fights compared to Moreira’s 9. He has an even more noteworthy edge in total UFC experience having spent 67:39 inside the Octagon compared to just 00:20 for his foe.

‘Rick Monstro’ has been primarily a first round finisher, with just a single win coming outside of the first round. Both of his TUF Brazil 3 tournament wins also came in the opening round. He has won 5 times by sub (4 by leg based attack). Alcantara, a BJJ Black belt, is 6-0 in fight ending by submission. He also has 10 win by knockout.

Moreira’s his last 2 wins came over opponents with a combined 3-10 record.

‘Monstro’ has some skills on the ground, but will also give up position in pursuit of a submission. On the feet, he is incredibly wild, taking a lot of damage in the process and he will often gas out after the initial attack. Ildemar will need to be mindful of the early flurry, but look for him to use a well timed stepping knee and punches aided by his reach to hurt Moreira as he closes the distance. Alcantara should benefit from not draining himself to cut to Welterweight, so my prediction is Ildemar Alcantara to defeat Richradson Moreira by TKO.

170lbs- Richardson Moreira (7-3-0) vs Ildemar Alcantara (20-7-0)

  • Ildemar Alcantara $1.59 (66%, 23 Votes)
  • Richardson Moreira $2.60 (34%, 12 Votes)

Total Voters: 35

Who will win this UFC Fight? Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions
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185lbs- Thiago Santos (9-3-0) vs Andy Enz (8-2-0)

In the Middleweight division, Andy Enz remains in search of his inaugural UFC win when he battles Brazilian striker Thiago Santos. Santos is 1-2 in the UFC with a upset win over Ronny Markes sandwiched between losses to Cezar Ferreira and Uriah Hall. Enz has lost both UFC appearances, dropping his debut to Clint Hester and sophomore appearance versus Marcelo Guimaraes.

The aforementioned Hall is an unofficial common opponent of both men. Santos lost to him at UFC 175 by decision, while Enz was bested by the TUF Finalist in a tournament qualifier bout- which Hall also won by decision.

The American has proven himself to be quite durable. Over his two Octagon fights he has been soundly punished, getting hit a combined 159times by his adversaries. He was badly out landed 78-42 by a grappling first fighter in Guimaraes. Unfortunately, durability isn’t solely enough to build a successful career on.

5 of Enz’s 7 wins have come by submission-including wins by North-South Choke and Brabo Choke in his last 2 pre-UFC fights.

Santos is primarily a striker, based in Muay Thai and Capoeira. He has accrued 5 wins by knockout, including a brutal body kick stoppage of Markes in early 2014. To date, he averages just over 3 strikes per minute, outlanding Hall by a count 48-42.

Enz has yet to show his grappling skills inside the Octagon, but he may need to return to his base versus Santos. Santos is the superior striker, in technique, power, and variety. For Enz, getting beaten by Guimaraes on the feet is incredibly underwhelming. Andy has a tendency to leave his hands low and is a little slow to retract them after throwing a punch. This will leave him vulnerable to well-timed counters from Santos. Look for the Brazilian to infringe upon the movement of Enz with a battering assault of low kicks. Enz will need to make this fight a gritty one if he is to emerge victorious, but his flat footed style will make him a very hittable target- my prediction is Thaigo Santos to defeat Andy Enz by decision.  

170lbs- Richardson Moreira (7-3-0) vs Ildemar Alcantara (20-7-0)

  • Ildemar Alcantara $1.59 (66%, 23 Votes)
  • Richardson Moreira $2.60 (34%, 12 Votes)

Total Voters: 35

Who will win this UFC Fight? Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions
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>>>Prelim Prediction Archives<<<

10 Responses to “UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz- Preliminary Predictions”

  1. Sam Shehadeh says:

    FIGHT PREDICTIONS: GSP FINISHES HENDRICKS IN THE 4TH OR 5TH,RASHAD BY DECISION,MCDONALD DECISION,WOODLEY BY TKO,ELLIOT BY DECISION,CERRONE BY TKO,LEITES BY SUBMISSION,STORY BY DECISION,PEREZ BY DECISION,HIGH BY TKO,PETTIS BY SUMBISSION,DONOVAN BY KO

  2. Ricky Ross says:

    “Sampo is coming off a loss against former Bellator Bantamweight champion and potential future title challenger Josh Sampo.”

    WTF???

  3. UFC Gramma says:

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  4. adam says:

    i loved your new setup i hope u can keep it that way. much much better than beforeee!

  5. brent says:

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  6. Steo92 says:

    Nice prediction set up, like this site alot 10/10

  7. Brent says:

    I always look forward to your predictions. Your site is an important part of my wagering research for all the UFC events. MMA is best sport in the world, your thoughts and analysis add to the enjoyment!

  8. Morgan Iowa says:

    Nice breakdowns

  9. Tom says:

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