UFC Fight Night 30: Machida vs. Munoz: Results and Bet Pack

Josh Harper

Online Prelims

185 lbs. – Brad Scott (0-1 UFC) vs. Michael Kuiper (1-2 UFC) – Scott via submission

Scott was able to press Kuiper up against the cage and work some dirty boxing before sinking in a tight front choke to get the 1st round submission finish.

145 lbs. – Jimy Hettes (2-1 UFC) vs. Robert Whiteford (0-0 UFC) – Hettes via submission

Whiteford was very strong in the clinch to start the fight, but Hettes threw a nice judo trip and controlled Whiteford in round 1. Hettes was able to lock in a triangle in round 2 and got the tap out.

145 lbs. – Andy Ogle (1-1 UFC) vs. Cole Miller (8-6 UFC) – Miller via U. decision

Miller won the 1st and 2nd rounds with his grappling skill and also managed to hurt Ogle on the feet with a hard right hand. Ogle won the 3rd round with solid top control, but it wasn’t enough to get the win.

135 lbs. – Rosi Sexton (0-1 UFC) vs. Jessica Andrade (0-1 UFC) –                Andrade via U. decision

Andrade clearly got the better of the striking exchanges by using her jab and hooks. Sexton showed heart by firing back when she could, but her face was proof enough that she lost the fight.

185 lbs. – Luke Barnatt (1-0 UFC) vs. Andrew Craig (3-1 UFC) – Barnatt via submission

Craig landed some good punches early on, but Barnatt quickly took over as he was able to drop Craig twice and finished him via rear naked choke in the 2nd round.

155 lbs. – Al Iaquinta (1-1 UFC) vs. Piotr Hallmann (1-0 UFC) – Iaquinta via U. decision

Hallman landed some good strikes throughout the fight and even got a takedown, but Iaquinta took over the fight in rounds 2 and 3 with his powerful striking.

Fox Sports Main Card

125 lbs. – Phil Harris (1-1 UFC) vs. John Lineker (3-1 UFC) – Lineker via TKO

Harris never really tried to get this fight to the ground and he paid for it when Lineker finally caught him with a good punch that wobbled his legs and before he could recover Lineker was able to finish.

185 lbs. – Alessio Sakara (6-7(1) UFC) vs. Nicholas Musoke (0-0 UFC) – Musoke via submission

Both fighters were hurt early on as they were trading punches with little regard. Musoke took the fight to the ground, Sakara eventually got on top, but Musoke locked up a nice armbar for a 1st round finish.

155 lbs. – Norman Parke (2-0 UFC) vs. Jon Tuck (1-0 UFC) – Parke via U. decision

Tuck did win some striking exchanges, but for the majority of the fight Parke was landing more effective punches and kicks while also landing a nice supple takedown.

205 lbs. – Jimi Manuwa (2-0 UFC) vs. Ryan Jimmo (2-1 UFC) – Manuwa via TKO

Manuwa was landing very hard punches and kicks, but Jimmo continued to counter by pressing Manuwa against the cage and strike. Manuwa landed a knee from the clinch to the body of Jimmo for the finish.

155 lbs. – Ross Pearson (7-3 UFC) vs. Melvin Guillard (12-8 UFC) – No Contest

Guillard was getting the better of the stand-up with his quick punches, but during a scramble on the ground Guillard landed 1 illegal knee to the face of Pearson that caused a fight ending cut.

185 lbs. – Lyoto Machida (11-4 UFC) vs. Mark Munoz (8-3 UFC) – Machida via TKO

Machida looked amazing in his new weight class and possessed the same evasive footwork. Machida was landing good kicks and some punches before he set up a head kick that KO’d Munoz in round 1.

UFC Fight Night 30

Parlay Breakdowns

In an effort to accommodate different styles of MMA Bettors I have compiled 7 different possible betting cards to help you maximize your profit depending on what style of gambler you are and how much money you want to allocate to each card.

Big Money Bettors- for players with a higher bankroll willing to put a lot of cash on the line to turn a profit and build a growing account, focusing mainly on single bets and well placed parlays.

Recreational Bettors- for players that will allocate a decent sized bankroll per event, but would rather spread out their bets and try and turn smaller investments into big returns with larger parlays.

For Fun Bettors- for players that are putting a little bit of cash on the line just to have a good time and have no problem playing a high risk parlay hoping to cash that big payday.

Big Money Bettor, Budget: $500

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Ryan Jimmo $2.70
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Price: $2.70 x Bet: $100
Payout: $270
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Dan Lauzon $3.15
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Price: $3.15 x Bet: $75
Payout: $236.25
 
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Parlay #3
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Selection 1:
===================================================
Price: $1.87 x Bet: $50
Payout: $93.50
 
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Parlay #4
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Selection 1: Cole Miller $1.62
Selection 2:
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Price: $2.54 x Bet: $75
Payout: $190.50
 
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Parlay #5
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Selection 1: Melvin Guillard $1.74- Void
Selection 2: Norman Parke $1.66
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Price: $2.89 x Bet: $50
Payout: $144.50
 
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Parlay #6
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Selection 1: Piotr Hallmann $2.26
Selection 2: Ryan Jimmo $2.70
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Price: $6.10 x Bet: $40
Payout: $244
 
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Parlay #7
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Selection 1:
Selection 2: Dan Lauzon $3.15
Selection 3:
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Price: $9.25 x Bet: $40
Payout: $370
 
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Parlay #8
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Selection 1:
Selection 2: Cole Miller $1.62
Selection 3:
Selection 4: Ryan Jimmo $2.70
Selection 5: Norman Parke $1.66
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Price: $21.32 x Bet: $70
Payout: $1492.40

Recreational Bettor, Budget: $225

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Ryan Jimmo $2.70
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Price: $2.70 x Bet: $50
Payout: $135
 
Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Dan Lauzon $3.15
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Price: $3.15 x Bet: $35
Payout: $110.25
 
Parlay #3
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Selection 1:
Selection 2:
Selection 3: Cole Miller $1.62
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Price: $4.76 x Bet: $60
Payout: $285.60
 
Parlay #4
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Selection 1: Melvin Guillard $1.74
Selection 2: Norman Parke $1.66
Selection 3: Ryan Jimmo $2.70
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Price: $7.80 x Bet: $50
Payout: $390
 
Parlay #5
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Selection 1: Piotr Hallmann $2.26
Selection 2: Dan Lauzon $3.15
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Price: $7.12 x Bet: $30
Payout: $213.60
 

For Fun Bettor, Budget: $75

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Ryan Jimmo $2.70
Selection 2: Cole Miller $1.62
Selection 3:
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Price: $6.87 x Bet: $25
Payout: $171.75
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Dan Lauzon $3.15
Selection 2:
Selection 3: Melvin Guillard $1.74
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Price: $10.25 x Bet: $20
Payout: $205
 
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Parlay #3
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Selection 1: Norman Parke $1.66
Selection 2: Piotr Hallmann $2.26
Selection 3:
Selection 4:
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Price: $11.01 x Bet: $15
Payout: $165.15
 
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Parlay #4
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Selection 1: Cole Miller $1.62
Selection 2:
Selection 3:
Selection 4: Melvin Guillard $1.74
Selection 5: Norman Parke $1.66
Selection 6: Michael Kuiper $1.40
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Price: $19. 23 x Bet: $15
Payout: $288.45
 

Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns

WSOF 6 Bonus Breakdown: Dan Lauzon $3.15 vs Justin Gaethje $1.36

I would really like to breakdown all Bellator and WSOF events with their own prediction shows and bet packs, but the time just isn’t there for me to do is justice. I have looked over the other 2 events that are going down this weekend and this fight stands out to me as a solid play above all else. This fight goes down Saturday night and will be treated as a regular part of the bet pack, despite taking place on a separate card. Gaethje is a decent prospect and is being groomed as the future of the division for this organization, but he was in tough in his last appearance against a Brian Cobb. Cobb had a lot of success early until Justin got his leg kicks going and I feel he exposed Gaethje as a fighter not quite ready to take it to the next level. Lauzon looked very good in his WSOF debut and he is a solid, well rounded fighter. He has a lot of high level experience, with 3 of his 4 losses coming in the UFC against Efrain Escudero, Cole Miller, and Spencer Fisher. Additionally, he made his debut after a near 2 year absense from the sport, so we could see an even better fighter this time around. I think that Gaethje is being overvalued here and as a result Lauzon is an excellent play for a single bet.

Michael Kuiper $1.40 vs

Kuiper should win this fight, but in each of his last bouts (1-1) his overconfidence has been an issues. He had Hamman badly hurt, but was wading in with no respect for his striking and getting tagged with some decent shots. Against Lawlor, he was in the driver’s seat with Tom hurting his leg and struggling to find much success prior to the injury. He opened the second round and was almost immediately caught in a find ending guillotine. Scott is a scrappy fighter, but Kuiper’s Judo skills will be too much and unless Scott can catch him on the feet, the striking exchanges won’t be much better. Kuiper’s number is dipping, but he could still add some pop to a 3 fighter parlay which I will consider for the lower bankroll plays.

Jimy Hettes $1.18 vs

No thank you! Hettes’s last appearance was such a poor performance that I have no desire to put money down on him at this number or really any other line that has him as the favourite until I see him fighting at the level he should be. Moving on.

Cole Miller $1.62 vs

Ogle is scrappy, but I just don’t see him having enough to out work Cole anywhere in this fight. He has was dragged into a grappling contest by Josh Grispi and was in tough early. If Cole get’s the same chances that Gripsi had at the start of that fight, we’ll be done before the fans sit back down. Ogle on the feet needs to be aggressive, and get inside the reach of Miller, which has been the vet’s undoing. While Ogle does need to close that gap, he puts himself in danger of getting taken down and that is a major concern. Additionally, I was impressed with the striking both at distance and in the clinch for Miller and that will show up here. I like Cole as part of a parlay, probably a 2 fighter play, he does have consistency issues, but his back is against it and he will be motivated.

Jessica Andrade $1.87 vs

The line is moving with Sexton formerly the favourite, which is something that I like. Andrade has had her moments and obviously did enough to get the call from the UFC, but she has had trouble with the type of fight that Sexton will most likely fight. I think Rosi should be able to get this bout to the ground and find success grinding out a win, TKO stoppage, or maybe even a submission. Andrade struggle with the ground game of Carmouche and Jennifer Maia before her and Sexton will replicate these issues. Rosi held her own, but was undersized against a top ranked Alexis Davis. She will be the bigger fighter here, which should aid her in bullying Andrade around the cage and taking away her cardio. I am still debating where this fight ranks in on the value list. She won’t pass Ryan Jimmo by, but Rosi could sneak into the #2 spot. Consider a decent sized bet here, see the parlay section for the final verdict.

Luke Barnatt $2.50 vs

Andrew Craig doesn’t get enough respect, as this line will suggest, and he is carving out a nice career for himself with a 3-1 UFC record. Barnatt has decent striking and can operate on the ground if required too. Despite his above average length he really struggles to keep guys on the outside and has a pension for getting hammer with hard combinations. Unless the Brit has made some significant strides, his slow footed approach and poor striking defense will cost him against the hard hitting and vastly improving Craig. Craig should be able to break Barnatt down and land a fight ending shot at some point inside the first 2 frames. I think you are getting some decent value here with Craig and he makes for a nice combo with another one of the solid paying favourites.

Piotr Hallmann $2.26 vs

I was impressed with what I saw out of Hallmann prior to his debut and despite getting into some trouble, he did exceptionally well considering who he was facing and where it was taking place. I like Hallmann’s experience to play a role here. He is fighting for the fourth time this year and has a lot of momentum. Iaquinta hasn’t even broken double digits in total pro fights yet, and experience can be a big advantage in a gritty style fight (which I expect this to be). The striking exchanges will be close, but I think that Hallmann’s pressure and volume will win out over the power strikes of Al. On the mat if Hallmann can turn offense into defense like he did against Trinaldo, Iaquinta will be in tough fighting off his back. This will be a close fight, even if there is a finish I think both guys will have their moments. As a result I don’t have this bout in my top 2 for plays, most likely #3. I would recommend a mid-sized bet, on Hallmann. If you have a little bit of cash to play with maybe consider taking investing a little more but I think there are a number of solid bets on this card so spread it out.

Phil Harris $4.25 vs

Nope. These numbers are probably the best out there as far as Lineker is concern and I have no desire to make a straight up bet on this bout. Lineker should be able to overwhelm Harris with his striking, but if his past weight cutting and cardio issues show up he could potentially gas out and get then anything can happen after that. I am thinking about a prop bet here, but other then that this is a no play.

Nicholas Musoke $2.86 vs

I am really not that interested in betting this fight. Sakara has a lot in his favour, but there is so much that isn’t known about this matchup that it just isn’t worth the risk. Sakara is desperate for a win, but is coming off a long layoff and is dealing with his third opponent change. Additionally, he is chinny and that certainly increases the potential for a puncher’s chance to actually coming through. We don’t know a tonne about Musoke and what we do know of his comes from bouts far below this level of comp. The only appealing aspect of this fight is that Sakara is around $1.50 and could offer a little diversity for a parlay, tread carefully.

Norman Parke $1.66 vs

This is going to be an interesting fight and I went back and forth on it. I like what I have seen out of Parke and while Tuck did get the ‘W’ in his last fight, it was a little bit sloppy against a lower level opponent. I expect that this fight is going to have its back and forth moments and could come down to the last judge’s call. If that is the case home field advantage could play a significant role. Whether the judges are willing to admit it or not, the roar of the crowd certainly makes a series of events appear far more significant to the overall flow of the fight then when the other guy is attacking to a much more subdued sound track. Again Parke’s mix of striking and wrestling/ top game should win him this fight. We could see some new stuff from Tuck with the long layoff, but if he doesn’t get off to a good start, ring rust will be a potential factor as well. I think there are a number of good bets on this card so I think that Parke would be better suited for you parlay bets, doubling him up with the other decent paying favourites on the card.

Ryan Jimmo $2.70 vs J

I have been finding success with my top value plays over the last couple of fights and I think this one is going to be my #1 play again. I really like Jimmo here. His style isn’t pretty, but it should be enough to get the job done here. His striking is good enough to at least get him in a position to close the distance and I expect that he will work to grind Manuwa down on the cage. My only concern about this scenario is the ref. If the crowd boos with their man on the wall, we could see some quick breakups which will give Manuwa a chance to land some big shots. Jimi is no slouch on the feet, but his grappling defense is questionable and his cardio is also a weak link. I think that Jimmo’s grinding style will expose both and in the process limit the effectiveness of his striking attack. Jimmo is my #1 play and should be your biggest investment of the night.

Melvin Guillard $1.74 vs

I always try to find angles and/or trends when trying to predict a close fight. Examining the typical profile of fighters that normally beat Guillard, Pearson doesn’t fit it. Of the 8 men that have handed Melvin defeats in his UFC career, on average they have won by submission 15 times in their careers, with Nate Diaz ranking in with the lowest total of 11. Melvin clearly has submission defense issues as well as some questionable focus at times. Looking at these numbers, it can be argued that some of his problems could stem from his concern with being taken down and submitted. Pearson is a scrappy fighter, but I prefer Guillard’s striking repertoire based on his speed and ability to limit his opponent connection rate (see Pearson vs Swanson). As long as Melvin can avoid getting clipped with a big shot, he should be fine. I like Guillard’s value, he will break into my top 5 value plays with ease and I would think a larger sized straight up bet is the play here.

Lyoto Machida $1.29 vs

Machida is moving to MW which is something that can cause some concern for a fighter, but he has been preparing for this drop for a while now, continually coming in under the 205 weight limit. I think Machida’s speed will still be there and he should enjoy the advantages of size and strength even more so now. Munoz is a good fighter, but his wrestling isn’t as strong as we the average person might believe. His takedown numbers aren’t good and if his opponent is able to shut down his wrestling he becomes a far less effective fighter. It is hard not to foresee Machida having a field day on the feet countering Munoz as he first tries to close the distance looking to wrestling and then secondly when he tries to attack with wide looping punches. Machida at $1.29 isn’t great, but he may be worth an add on a parlay. If your focus is on value, then take a pass on betting this fight straight up.


Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1. Lyoto Machida $1.29

2.

3.

4. Michael Kuiper $1.40

5. Cole Miller $1.62

====================

6.

7. Jimy Hettes $1.18

8. Ryan Jimmo $2.70

9. Dan Lauzon $3.15

10. Melvin Guillard $1.74

11. Norman Parke $1.66

12.

13. Piotr Hallmann $2.26


Kamikaze Overdrive Fighter Prediction Records

Event Prediction Record: (44-28-0 61%)

Best Prediction Record: Ross Pearson (6-1-0)

Worst Prediction Record: Cole Miller (3-4-0)

Best Combined Prediction Record (at least 5 fights): Melvin Guillard vs. Ross Pearson 13-3-0

Worst Combined Prediction Record (at least 5 fights): Cole Miller vs. Andy Ogle 4-5-0

MAIN CARD

185lbs- Lyoto Machida (4-2-0) vs. #5 Mark Munoz (5-2-0)

155lbs- Melvin Guillard (7-2-0) vs. Ross Pearson (6-1-0)

205lbs- Ryan Jimmo (2-1-0) vs. Jimi Manuwa (1-1-0)

155lbs- Norman Parke (0-2-0) vs. Jon Tuck (1-0-0)

185lbs- Nicholas Musoke (0-0-0) vs. Alessio Sakara (3-0-0)

125lbs- Phil Harris (1-1-0) vs. #5 John Lineker (2-2-0)

PRELIMINARY

155lbs- Piotr Hallmann (0-1-0) vs. Al Iaquinta (1-1-0)

185lbs- Luke Barnatt (0-1-0) vs. Andrew Craig (3-1-0)

135lbs- Jessica Andrade (1-0-0) vs. #10 Rosi Sexton (1-0-0)

145lbs- Cole Miller (3-4-0) vs. Andy Ogle (1-1-0)

145lbs- Jimy Hettes (1-2-0) vs. Robert Whiteford (0-0-0)

185lbs- Michael Kuiper (1-1-0) vs. Brad Scott (0-1-0)


Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. Ryan Jimmo $2.70 Jimmo won’t be flashy, but he will be effective. The claims that Manuwa has good wrestling are unfounded and certainly in my opinion undermined by his fight with Kingsbury. Play the Canadian dog.
2. Dan Lauzon $3.15 Lauzon’s striking looked good in his debut, his ground game is solid as well and he has more experience to draw upon then his opponent. I wasn’t impressed with Gaethje in his last fight, despite the comeback win. Play the undervalued dog.
3. $1.87 These lines are moving and Rosi could find her way into the role of the underdog. Let’s hope so. She can and will reproduce the same style fight that her opponent is known to struggle with.
4. Melvin Guillard $1.74 Melvin is a head case, but it is hard to bet against him in a fight that should be contested primarily on the feet. The value is there.
5. Piotr Hallmann $2.26 Hallmann impressed me in his debut and I think he has what it takes to keep that momentum rolling. He is the lesser known of the two fighters based on his time spent in Europe and Iaquinta’s time on TUF, which is impacting these odds.

The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

  • Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
  • I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.

Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. $4.50 This might be worth a play just because Hettes is not. Hettes has been out for a while and looked so poorly in his last fight, if he wasn’t fighting a late unknown replacement he wouldn’t be this big of a fav. Take a shot if you have extra bankroll.
2. Nicholas Musoke $2.86 I wish this number was a little higher and it might get there in time. Alessio should win this fight but the combination of ring rust and a suspect chin could come back to haunt him against an opponent that could have a speed advantage.
3.
4.
5.

The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.

Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.

Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.

The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.

There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.


Prop Bets-

Jessica Andrade/

Luke Barnatt/

Norman Parke/

Ryan Jimmo/J

Lyoto Machida to Win by KO/TKO/DQ- I think Machida will be able to exploit the wide striking attack of Munoz and land a knockout blow similar to what he did against Bader. Add some value and play the knockout.