UFC Fight Night 29: Maia vs. Shields – Results and Bet Pack

Josh Harper

Fox Sports Prelims

155 lbs. – Allan Patrick (0-0 UFC) vs. Garrett Whiteley (0-0 UFC) – Patrick via TKO

Patrick was getting his takedowns like he wanted, but Whiteley defended well on the ground and got back to his feet only to get sloppy with a looping uppercut that Patrick countered with a huge left hand.

125 lbs. – Iliarde Santos (0-2 UFC) vs. Chris Cariaso (4-3 UFC) – Cariaso via TKO

Santos was walking down Cariaso landing punches and even controlled Cariaso on the ground for a while, but Cariaso kept throwing counters and eventually caught Santos and never let him recover.

170 lbs. – Yan Cabral (0-0 UFC) vs. David Mitchell (1-3 UFC) – Cabral via U. decision 

Cabral completely controlled Mitchell on the ground and came close with several submissions. Cabral was also able to win the striking and even dropped Mitchell with a huge right hand during the fight.

170 lbs. – Ildemar Alcantara (2-0 UFC) vs. Igor Araujo (0-0 UFC) – Araujo via U. decision

This was a great back and forth fight that saw Alcantara control the 1st round with his striking and grappling, but Araujo turned the tables by out striking and grappling Alcanatara for the later rounds.

Main Card

135 lbs. – Raphael Assuncao (4-1 UFC) vs. T.J. Dillashaw (4-1 UFC) – Assuncao via S. decision

Dillashaw was able to get a takedown and worked hard for submissions to take the first round, but Assuncao turned it up in the 2nd round with crisp striking and won the 3rd with counter punches.

170 lbs. – Rousimar Palhares (7-4 UFC) vs. Mike Pierce (9-3 UFC) – Palhares via submission

Pierce came out with hard punches but got much too close to Palhares and the Brazilian was able to snatch up Pierce’s leg and apply an ankle lock just seconds into the first round.

205 lbs. – Fabio Maldonado (2-3 UFC) vs. Joey Beltran (3-5(1) UFC) – Maldonado via S. decision

Maldonado used his jab mostly in this fight and it set up his combos and body shots nicely for 3 rounds. Beltran made it a fight by landing hard right hands, but didn’t do enough to impress the judges.

205 lbs. – Thiago Silva (6-3(2) UFC) vs. Matt Hamill (10-4 UFC) – Silva via U. decision

Hamill was never able to get his wrestling game going, and he struggled to do any damage to Silva on the feet. Silva stuffed takedowns all fight and landed several good punches and damaging leg kicks.

170 lbs. – Erick Silva (3-2 UFC) vs. Dong Hyun Kim (8-2(1) UFC) – Kim via KO

Silva landed several hard kicks and punches that hurt Kim and almost finished him, but Kim continued to fight back and once Silva got tired he let his guard down and Kim capitalized with a knockout punch.

170 lbs. – Demian Maia (12-4 UFC) vs. Jake Shields (3-2(1) UFC) – Shields via S. decision

This was basically a Jiu Jitsu fight that was back and forth seeing both fighters in dominant positions and attempting submissions, but Shields spent more time in top control stuffing Maia’s grappling attacks.

UFC Fight Night 29

Parlay Breakdowns

In an effort to accommodate different styles of MMA Bettors I have compiled 7 different possible betting cards to help you maximize your profit depending on what style of gambler you are and how much money you want to allocate to each card.

Big Money Bettors- for players with a higher bankroll willing to put a lot of cash on the line to turn a profit and build a growing account, focusing mainly on single bets and well placed parlays.

Recreational Bettors- for players that will allocate a decent sized bankroll per event, but would rather spread out their bets and try and turn smaller investments into big returns with larger parlays.

For Fun Bettors- for players that are putting a little bit of cash on the line just to have a good time and have no problem playing a high risk parlay hoping to cash that big payday.

Big Money Bettor, Budget: $500

===================================================
Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Demian Maia by Decision $3.06
===================================================
Price: $3.06 x Bet: $100
Payout: $306
 
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Parlay #2
===================================================
Selection 1: Dong Hyun Kim by Decision $4.00
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Price: $4.00 x Bet: $50
Payout: $200
 
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Parlay #3
===================================================
Selection 1: Raphael Assuncao $3.06
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Price: $3.06 x Bet: $75
Payout: $229.50
 
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Parlay #4
===================================================
Selection 1: Joey Beltran $2.36
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Price: $2.36 x Bet: $75
Payout: $177
 
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Parlay #5
===================================================
Selection 1: Chris Cariaso $2.26
Selection 2: Raphael Assuncao $3.06
===================================================
Price: $6.92 x Bet: $75
Payout: $519
 
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Parlay #6
===================================================
Selection 1: Dong Hyun Kim $3.26
Selection 2: Joey Beltran $2.36
===================================================
Price: $7.69 x Bet: $50
Payout:$384.50
 
===================================================
Parlay #7
===================================================
Selection 1: Raphael Assuncao $3.06
Selection 2: Joey Beltran $2.36
Selection 3: Demian Maia $1.38
===================================================
Price: $9.97 x Bet: $75
Payout:$747.75

Recreational Bettor, Budget: $200

===================================================
Parlay #1
===================================================
Selection 1: Demian Maia by Decision $3.06
===================================================
Price: $3.06 x Bet: $50
Payout: $153
 
Parlay #2
===================================================
Selection 1: Dong Hyun Kim $3.26
Selection 2: Raphael Assuncao $3.06
===================================================
Price: $9.98 x Bet: $50
Payout: $499
 
Parlay #3
===================================================
Selection 1: Joey Beltran $2.36
Selection 2: Raphael Assuncao $3.06
Selection 3: Demian Maia $1.38
===================================================
Price: $9.97 x Bet: $35
Payout: $348.95
 
Parlay #4
===================================================
Selection 1: Chris Cariaso $2.26
Selection 2: Dong Hyun Kim $3.26
Selection 3: Joey Beltran $2.36
===================================================
Price: $17.39 x Bet: $30
Payout: $521.70
 
Parlay #5
===================================================
Selection 1: Raphael Assuncao $3.06
Selection 2: Chris Cariaso $2.26
Selection 3:
Selection 4: Demian Maia $1.38
===================================================
Price: $12.41 x Bet: $35
Payout: $434.35
 

For Fun Bettor, Budget: $50

===================================================
Parlay #1
===================================================
Selection 1: Raphael Assuncao $3.06
Selection 2: Joey Beltran $2.36
Selection 3: Dong Hyun Kim $3.26
===================================================
Price: $23.54 x Bet: $20
Payout: $470.80
 

==================================================

Parlay #2
===================================================
Selection 1: Chris Cariaso $2.26
Selection 2: Raphael Assuncao $3.06
Selection 3: Demian Maia $1.38
Selection 4: Joey Beltran $2.36
===================================================
Price: $22.52 x Bet: $15
Payout: 337.80
 
Parlay #3
===================================================
Selection 1: Dong Hyun Kim $3.26
Selection 2: Chris Cariaso $2.26
Selection 3:
===================================================
Price: $9.58 x Bet: $15
Payout: $143.70
 
 

Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns

Alan Patrick $1.34 vs

This fight has red flags written all over it and consider that the only way I was betting on it is if my play has a tonne of value. There is just too much unknown floating around this fight with young and debuting fighters, with limited footage and experience at this level. I did go with Patrick, but with these numbers the only way I would consider touching this bout is with a little cash on Whiteley. Go to the NPW list for more info.

Chris Cariaso $2.26 vs

This is my favourite play of the prelims, with one catch. Before we get to the catch, I expected the odds to be close, but Cariaso still the fav. Santos carried himself well against McCall which is why these odds are where they are and he is fighting at home which helps. What I did pick up on is that Santos had some trouble with the kicks of McCall and Cariaso throws a lot of leg techniques. He is a kick first fighter and I think that will help him to set the range. Santos’s size and strength could be an issue, but Cariaso does have a tonne of experience with bigger guys having fought at 135. Now for the catch. It’s the public picks section. Currently the public is even at 11 votes each. That does not favour the dog whatsoever. 8 times has the public been split on a fight and the dog is 2-6 in those 8 bouts. If Cariaso gains the favour of the crowd then it only gets worse because dogs from 51-54% are 3-11 and from 50% to 64% dogs are 11-29. Not good. So with that in mind I will still back him, but I think he only warrants a lower level bet or possibly using him in a pairing with another dog with lower money on the line and more to win.

Yan Cabral $1.37 vs

Betting on a debuting fighter, with no pro fights in roughly 2 years, and who is this heavy a favourite versus an experience UFC vet makes no sense. I do think that Cabral wins this fight based on Mitchell’s pasted struggles with solid grapplers like Paulo Thiago and TJ Waldburger, but I would like to see him compete at this level until I start dropping some coin on him at this pay rate. In fact, I think that the play here is a small single bet on Mitchell. I’ll explain more in the non-predicted winner’s list.

Igor Araujo $3.65 vs

Araujo getting a shot in the UFC has been a bit of a head scratcher and Alcantara really didn’t impress in his 170 debut. For those two reasons I really have no intention of jumping all over this fight. Alcantara should win it, but at $1.30 he really isn’t offering much. There are some solid alternatives on the card as far as value is concerned and that is where your money should be focussed. Alcantara wins, but my play here is not to play.

Raphael Assuncao $3.06 vs

If TJ is ready for the next plateau of competition this fight will prove it, but up until now he hasn’t faced anyone on this level. He has been able to take advantage of opponents based on wild striking or defensive grappling issues, neither of which are present in Assuncao. Assuncao is underappreciated and under-valued, even by me. I had him all the way against Mike Easton, right up until I typed the opposite prediction onto my site. Had Assuncao not been taking the fight on short notice I most likely would have pull the trigger on the near 3-1 dog. In this scenario I am not trying to catch up on a miss opportunity, more over I feel Assuncao has the striking capabilities to find consistent success and the grappling chops to both defend and maybe even put the wrestler in some bad spots. Remember TJ has a grand total of 9 fights under his belt, while Assuncao has fought some of the best and has been competing in the WEC and UFC for quite a while now. Like I will mention in my next couple of break downs, I feel good about this pick along with Beltran an Kim. Depending on your bankroll, spread things out accordingly as they are all solid straight up investments.

Rousimar Palhares $2.97 vs

I was close to taking the upset with Palhares, but there are too many unknowns here with him making his debut at 170. I will be laying off this fight unless Pierce takes an upturn over the $1.50 mark, which I don’t anticipate. Pierce should be able to hold him off and bust up the Brazilian and either stop him early or break his cardio down and finish him late. That being said, all Mr. Harris needs is one shot at a leg to make Mikey go tap tap, so I’ll pass and see how this plays out.

Joey Beltran $2.36 vs

This line is moving up in value for Joey-B, which is nice. I thought it would be much closer together then it is. Beltran, No Contest aside, looked fantastic against Igor Pokrajac. He stifled him in close with this body control and clinch attack and then while he did take some damage, he won most of the exchanges. Maldonado’s striking defense is porous and his grappling D is equally as bad if not worse. He has decent striking technique and his body shots are excellent, but I see him getting out worked here by the busier fighter. Overall, I think Beltran hits harder then Fabio which should show up as the fight progresses. If he can use a similar clinch based attack, he needs to be mindful of taking too much damage to the body (he did get crumpled from a body shot vs Johnson, but Johnson and Fabio don’t hit with the same impact), but I think he will be able to shutdown Fabio’s attack and potentially drag this fight to the ground where he should have an advantage. As Joey climbs higher and higher and feel like he is going to be in the running for my #1 value play. In all reality Kim, Beltran, and Assuncao are all solid bets, so depending on your bank roll spread your investments out accordingly.

Matt Hamill $3.17 vs

This is a no play for me. I like Silva to win this, but his past issues with strong wrestlers has me concerned. Hamill is capable of winning a fight with his wrestling and if Silva gasses or has past physical ailments come back to impact his performance, then Hamill will do just that. Both guys have had some recent issues with consistency, so I will pass with my man paying so low.

Dong Hyun Kim $3.26 vs

Usually I will complain about odds not being where I wanted them to be, but that is not the case here. I felt DHK would be the dog and big one and he is, with more value being added every day. The South Korean doesn’t get nearly enough respect for what he capable of and these odds prove it. Silva has wins over 2 fighters no longer with the company and a third that was in a must win situation to save his job in his last fight (Jason High). His only real UFC defeat came against Jon Fitch who was able to survive early and then break Silva with a relentless grinding mat game. Kim is a strong Judo based grappler and good offensive and defensive takedown numbers. He should be able to keep Silva from getting in a dominant position early and exhaust him while he trying to do so. Offensively, look for Kim to use control early on the mat and when he feels that Silva has started to tire, he will open up. I love this line and the value on some sites is climbing into the mid to high $3.30s. I would consider a mid-sized to larger sized bet on Kim. There are a couple of options on this card for big single bets so if you want to diversify and spread it out a little then go with the mid-sized. If you want to hit this fight hard, throw a bit more down.

Demian Maia $1.38 vs

I am not a huge fan of betting on this fight with the odds the way they are. Maia should be able to take this, but he 5 rounds is a concern for. Neither guy is known for the gas tanks and if one of them does give out, they could be in some serious trouble especially if there is still 2-3 rounds left on the table. I would probably stay away from betting this fight straight beyond adding Maia to a small parlay bet. I did take Maia by submission, but I think that my main play here might be the over or Maia by decision. Jake should be good enough to defend on the mat and keep from getting submitted as long as he doesn’t gas badly. If both guys slow down equally there should be no problem reaching the over or Maia by decision with his early onslaught giving him the edge on the cards.


Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1. Demian Maia $1.38

2.

3.

4.

5. Raphael Assuncao $3.06

====================

6. Joey Beltran $2.36

7. Dong Hyun Kim $3.26

8. Chris Cariaso $2.26

9. Yan Cabral $1.37

10. Alan Patrick $1.34


 

Kamikaze Overdrive Fighter Prediction Records

Event Prediction Record: (56-25-0 4NC) 69%

Best Prediction Record: Mike Pierce (7-1-0)

Worst Prediction Record: Erick Silva (1-4-0)

Best Combined Prediction Record (at least 5 fights): Rousimar Palhares x Mike Pierce 12-2-0

Worst Combined Prediction Record (at least 5 fights): Chris Cariaso x Iliarde Santos 3-5-0

Main Card

Demian Maia (6-2-0) x Jake Shields (3-2-0 1NC)

Dong Hyun Kim (4-2-0) x Erick Silva (1-4-0)

Matt Hamill (3-1-0) x Thiago Silva (1-1-0 2NC)

Joey Beltran (4-2-0 1NC) x Fabio Maldonado (4-0-0)

Rousimar Palhares (5-1-0) x Mike Pierce (7-1-0)

Raphael Assuncao (4-1-0) x T.J. Dillashaw (4-1-0)

Preliminary Card

Rodrigo Damm (2-0-0) x Hacran Dias (2-0-0)

Igor Araujo (0-0-0) x Ildemar Alcantara (1-1-0)

Yan Cabral (0-0-0) x David Mitchell (2-1-0)

Chris Cariaso (2-4-0) x Iliarde Santos (1-1-0)

Alan Patrick (0-0-0) x Garett Whiteley (0-0-0)

 

 


Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. Raphael Assuncao $3.06 Assuncao is being under-valued here and I think that Dillashaw is getting too much credit. Dillashaw is taking a step up in competition against a well rounded, experienced, and calculated fighter, who happens to be fighting at home. Play the dog.
2. Dong Hyun Kim $3.26 Kim is a major test for Erick Silva and the last time he faced this time of test he got grounded by a strong wrestler. If Kim can survive the early exchanges, which he should be able to, this is his fight to win and he has some serious value here.
3. Joey Beltran $2.36 Beltran looked better in his LHW debut then I expected and Maldonado just has too many holes in his game for a hard hitting brawler like Joey. He took a drop from 2 to 3 because of Kim’s price. Decent play nonetheless.
4. Chris Cariaso $2.26 I am a little surprised that Cariaso is the dog, but I did take a look at picking Silva. I don’t like the Public picks scenario that I discussed in the breakdown, but Cariaso is too good a veteran to pass up in this situation.
5. Demian Maia by Decision $3.06 There are limited options on this card for big plays, so I will throw a prop bet your way. I did take Maia by submission, but now that I have rehashed it a couple of times I think that Jake will be good enough to hold him off and take it to the scorecards.

The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

  • Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
  • I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.

Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. $3.17 He looked better against Pierce then most, including myself, expected. If he can hold off Cabral early the combo of debut jitters, suspected cardio issues, and Mitchell being a big WW could open the door for Mitchell to steal a late decision or submission if his opponent slows. Small Play.
2. $3.10 His striking looks good and he is a BJJ Blue belt training with Chris Lytle. I picked Patrick to win, but I see plenty of opportunities for Whitely to take this one and the value is there. Small play.
3.
4.
5.

The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.

Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.

Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.

The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.

There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.


Prop Bets-

Chris Cariaso/ Iliarde Santos Total Rounds Over 2.5– Flyweights get criticized all the time for failing to finishing and while I don’t totally agree wit this line of thought, I still think this is a smart play. Both guys are tough to put away, Santos is a finisher, but Cariaso has gone the distance 12 times in 19 fights. Play the Over.

T.J. Dillashaw/ Raphael Assuncao Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.71TJ has only gone the distance twice, but Assuncao is a tough guy to put away and has 9 decisions on his resume. I expect to see Assuncao sitting back and countering TJ as he comes forward, so unless he lands a perfect shot (only 3 KOs in 24 fights, so not likely) this fight goes deep. Play the Over.

Joey Beltran/ Fabio Maldonado Total Rounds Over 2.5- While this should be an entertaining bout with a tonne of damage on both side, I think that we will see the judges cards. Fabio has gone the distance 3 times in 5 UFC fights and Joey 6 times, 8 in his entire career. This bout has fight of the night potential, but the over is also a decent play.

Dong Hyun Kim to Win by Decision $4.00- I think that this is a great play to add some value to an already solid paying fighter. Unless Silva gasses so hard he can’t move, I don’t see Kim finishing him. Grind, Grind, Grind. This actually makes more sense to play then just Kim straight up, Kim by decision has be the norm for his UFC career.

Demian Maia to Win by Decision $3.07- This made my Value list @ #5. I think Sheilds can fend of Maia and avoid getting stopped, but Maia will take it on the scorecards. In a card with only 10 fights, this is a decent play to consider. Take a shot with some good value.